Opinion Poll by YouGov, 21–24 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.7–23.3% 20.4–23.7% 20.1–24.0% 19.5–24.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.2% 19.9–22.5% 19.6–22.8% 19.3–23.2% 18.7–23.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.4–16.8% 12.9–17.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.1–13.1% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.1–14.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–12.1% 9.8–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.2–13.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.5–8.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.1–5.8% 3.9–6.0% 3.7–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 167 157–177 155–180 152–182 148–187
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 161 151–170 149–173 147–176 142–180
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 106–123 104–125 102–127 98–131
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 92 84–99 82–102 80–104 77–108
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 77–92 75–94 73–96 70–99
Die Linke 69 53 47–59 46–61 44–62 42–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 37 32–42 31–44 30–45 28–48

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.2% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.6%  
149 0.2% 99.4%  
150 0.3% 99.2%  
151 0.6% 98.9%  
152 0.9% 98%  
153 1.0% 97%  
154 1.1% 96%  
155 1.0% 95%  
156 2% 94%  
157 3% 93%  
158 3% 90%  
159 2% 87%  
160 3% 86%  
161 4% 82%  
162 4% 78%  
163 6% 74%  
164 5% 68%  
165 5% 63%  
166 4% 58%  
167 7% 55% Median
168 5% 47%  
169 5% 42%  
170 5% 38%  
171 4% 32%  
172 3% 28%  
173 5% 26%  
174 4% 20%  
175 2% 17%  
176 2% 14%  
177 3% 12%  
178 1.4% 9%  
179 2% 7%  
180 1.5% 6%  
181 1.2% 4%  
182 0.5% 3%  
183 0.8% 2%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.2% 1.1%  
186 0.3% 0.9%  
187 0.2% 0.7%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.2% 99.7%  
143 0.3% 99.5%  
144 0.4% 99.2%  
145 0.5% 98.8%  
146 0.8% 98%  
147 0.8% 98%  
148 1.2% 97%  
149 1.1% 96%  
150 3% 94%  
151 2% 92%  
152 2% 89%  
153 3% 87%  
154 4% 84%  
155 4% 81%  
156 4% 77%  
157 5% 72%  
158 4% 67%  
159 6% 62%  
160 4% 57%  
161 7% 52% Median
162 5% 45%  
163 5% 41%  
164 5% 36%  
165 5% 31%  
166 5% 26%  
167 3% 21%  
168 3% 18%  
169 3% 15%  
170 3% 12%  
171 2% 9%  
172 2% 7%  
173 1.3% 6%  
174 1.1% 4%  
175 0.7% 3%  
176 0.8% 3%  
177 0.6% 2%  
178 0.3% 1.3%  
179 0.2% 0.9%  
180 0.2% 0.7%  
181 0.2% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.4% 99.5%  
100 0.4% 99.1%  
101 0.8% 98.7%  
102 0.9% 98%  
103 1.2% 97%  
104 1.4% 96%  
105 2% 94%  
106 2% 92%  
107 4% 90%  
108 3% 85%  
109 4% 82%  
110 5% 79%  
111 5% 74%  
112 7% 69%  
113 8% 62%  
114 6% 54% Median
115 5% 48%  
116 5% 43%  
117 5% 38%  
118 6% 33%  
119 6% 27%  
120 4% 21%  
121 3% 17%  
122 3% 14%  
123 2% 11%  
124 2% 9%  
125 2% 7%  
126 1.4% 5%  
127 0.8% 3%  
128 0.6% 2%  
129 0.4% 2%  
130 0.4% 1.3%  
131 0.4% 0.9%  
132 0.2% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.6%  
78 0.5% 99.3%  
79 0.6% 98.8%  
80 1.0% 98% Last Result
81 1.2% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 3% 94%  
84 3% 92%  
85 4% 88%  
86 4% 85%  
87 5% 81%  
88 6% 75%  
89 6% 69%  
90 6% 63%  
91 6% 57%  
92 7% 51% Median
93 7% 44%  
94 6% 37%  
95 5% 31%  
96 5% 26%  
97 4% 21%  
98 4% 17%  
99 3% 13%  
100 2% 9%  
101 2% 7%  
102 1.3% 5%  
103 1.2% 4%  
104 0.9% 3%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.3% 1.1%  
107 0.3% 0.8%  
108 0.2% 0.5%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 0.4% 99.4%  
72 0.6% 99.0%  
73 1.1% 98%  
74 1.2% 97%  
75 3% 96%  
76 2% 94%  
77 3% 91%  
78 4% 88%  
79 5% 84%  
80 6% 79%  
81 6% 73%  
82 7% 67%  
83 7% 61%  
84 5% 54% Median
85 8% 48%  
86 6% 41%  
87 7% 35%  
88 5% 27%  
89 5% 22%  
90 4% 17%  
91 3% 13%  
92 3% 10%  
93 2% 7%  
94 2% 6% Last Result
95 1.1% 4%  
96 0.9% 3%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.3% 1.1%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 0.7% 99.3%  
44 1.3% 98.6%  
45 2% 97%  
46 2% 96%  
47 4% 93%  
48 4% 90%  
49 6% 85%  
50 8% 79%  
51 8% 72%  
52 8% 63%  
53 10% 55% Median
54 7% 45%  
55 7% 39%  
56 6% 31%  
57 6% 25%  
58 5% 19%  
59 5% 14%  
60 3% 9%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.3% 4%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.5% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.1%  
66 0.2% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.6%  
29 1.0% 99.1%  
30 2% 98%  
31 3% 96%  
32 4% 94%  
33 6% 89%  
34 8% 83%  
35 9% 75%  
36 10% 66%  
37 10% 56% Median
38 9% 46%  
39 9% 37%  
40 7% 28%  
41 6% 21%  
42 5% 15%  
43 4% 10%  
44 2% 6%  
45 1.4% 4%  
46 1.0% 2% Last Result
47 0.6% 1.3%  
48 0.3% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 480 100% 470–491 466–493 464–497 458–500
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 456 100% 445–468 443–471 442–474 435–479
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 405 100% 394–415 390–418 387–422 382–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 374 98.7% 363–385 359–388 356–391 351–397
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 374 98% 362–385 359–388 356–391 351–396
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 365 89% 354–377 351–380 348–383 343–388
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 335 1.3% 324–346 321–350 318–353 312–358
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 313 0% 301–324 298–327 295–330 290–335
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 290 0% 279–301 276–304 273–307 268–313
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 282 0% 271–294 268–297 265–299 260–305
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 281 0% 271–293 268–295 264–299 260–305
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 206 0% 196–217 193–219 191–222 186–227
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 168 0% 158–178 155–180 153–183 149–188

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0.1% 99.9%  
456 0.1% 99.8%  
457 0.2% 99.7%  
458 0.3% 99.6%  
459 0.1% 99.3%  
460 0.2% 99.2%  
461 0.3% 99.0%  
462 0.3% 98.7%  
463 0.6% 98%  
464 1.4% 98%  
465 1.3% 96%  
466 1.1% 95% Last Result
467 0.5% 94%  
468 0.8% 93%  
469 2% 93%  
470 3% 90%  
471 5% 88%  
472 3% 82%  
473 3% 79%  
474 1.3% 76%  
475 2% 75%  
476 6% 73%  
477 6% 67%  
478 6% 61%  
479 4% 55% Median
480 6% 51%  
481 2% 45%  
482 2% 43%  
483 6% 41%  
484 6% 36%  
485 9% 30%  
486 2% 21%  
487 2% 19%  
488 2% 17%  
489 2% 15%  
490 2% 13%  
491 4% 12%  
492 2% 8%  
493 2% 6%  
494 0.7% 4%  
495 0.4% 3%  
496 0.3% 3%  
497 0.8% 3%  
498 0.4% 2%  
499 0.6% 1.4%  
500 0.3% 0.8%  
501 0.1% 0.4%  
502 0% 0.4%  
503 0.1% 0.3%  
504 0.1% 0.2%  
505 0.1% 0.2%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0.2% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.7%  
434 0.1% 99.6%  
435 0.1% 99.5%  
436 0.1% 99.5%  
437 0.4% 99.4%  
438 0.5% 99.0%  
439 0.4% 98%  
440 0.3% 98%  
441 0.2% 98%  
442 0.9% 98%  
443 2% 97%  
444 3% 95%  
445 3% 92%  
446 1.0% 89%  
447 0.5% 88%  
448 2% 88%  
449 4% 86%  
450 4% 81%  
451 3% 77%  
452 2% 75%  
453 2% 73%  
454 5% 71%  
455 9% 67%  
456 10% 57%  
457 4% 47% Median
458 1.4% 43%  
459 1.5% 41%  
460 4% 40%  
461 6% 36%  
462 6% 30%  
463 3% 24%  
464 0.9% 21%  
465 1.4% 20%  
466 3% 18%  
467 4% 16%  
468 5% 12%  
469 1.3% 7%  
470 0.3% 6%  
471 0.4% 5%  
472 1.2% 5%  
473 0.9% 4%  
474 1.3% 3%  
475 0.4% 2%  
476 0.1% 1.1%  
477 0.1% 1.0%  
478 0.3% 0.9%  
479 0.3% 0.6%  
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0% 99.7%  
381 0% 99.6%  
382 0.3% 99.6%  
383 0.4% 99.3%  
384 0.1% 98.9%  
385 0.2% 98.9%  
386 1.0% 98.7%  
387 1.1% 98%  
388 0.1% 97%  
389 0.2% 96%  
390 2% 96%  
391 2% 94%  
392 0.3% 91%  
393 1.1% 91%  
394 4% 90%  
395 2% 86%  
396 0.3% 83%  
397 2% 83%  
398 8% 81%  
399 6% 73%  
400 0.7% 67%  
401 2% 66%  
402 7% 64%  
403 5% 58%  
404 0.6% 53% Median
405 4% 52%  
406 10% 48%  
407 7% 39%  
408 0.4% 32%  
409 2% 31%  
410 6% 30%  
411 5% 23%  
412 0.5% 19%  
413 2% 18%  
414 5% 16%  
415 2% 11%  
416 0.2% 9%  
417 1.1% 9%  
418 3% 8%  
419 2% 5%  
420 0.1% 3%  
421 0.5% 3%  
422 0.9% 3%  
423 0.4% 2%  
424 0% 1.3%  
425 0.3% 1.3%  
426 0.5% 0.9%  
427 0.2% 0.5%  
428 0% 0.3%  
429 0% 0.3%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0.1% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.1% 99.6%  
352 0.2% 99.5%  
353 0.4% 99.3%  
354 0.3% 98.9%  
355 0.5% 98.7% Majority
356 0.7% 98%  
357 0.9% 97%  
358 0.8% 96%  
359 0.9% 96%  
360 1.2% 95%  
361 1.4% 93%  
362 2% 92%  
363 2% 90%  
364 3% 88%  
365 2% 85%  
366 4% 84%  
367 3% 80%  
368 5% 77%  
369 5% 73%  
370 3% 68%  
371 4% 65%  
372 5% 60%  
373 3% 56%  
374 6% 53% Median
375 3% 47%  
376 4% 43%  
377 5% 39%  
378 3% 35%  
379 4% 31%  
380 3% 27%  
381 4% 24%  
382 3% 20%  
383 2% 17%  
384 3% 14%  
385 2% 11%  
386 2% 10%  
387 2% 8%  
388 2% 6%  
389 0.8% 5%  
390 0.8% 4%  
391 0.8% 3%  
392 0.5% 2%  
393 0.5% 2%  
394 0.4% 1.4%  
395 0.3% 1.0%  
396 0.2% 0.7%  
397 0.1% 0.5%  
398 0.1% 0.4%  
399 0.1% 0.3%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.2% 99.7%  
351 0.2% 99.5%  
352 0.2% 99.3%  
353 0.4% 99.1%  
354 0.3% 98.7%  
355 0.5% 98% Majority
356 0.6% 98%  
357 0.8% 97%  
358 1.0% 97%  
359 2% 95%  
360 1.2% 94%  
361 2% 93%  
362 2% 91%  
363 1.5% 89%  
364 3% 87%  
365 3% 85%  
366 3% 82%  
367 3% 79%  
368 5% 76%  
369 3% 70%  
370 5% 67%  
371 4% 62%  
372 3% 58%  
373 4% 55% Median
374 5% 50%  
375 5% 46%  
376 5% 41%  
377 5% 37%  
378 3% 31%  
379 4% 28%  
380 3% 24%  
381 2% 21%  
382 3% 18%  
383 3% 16%  
384 2% 13%  
385 2% 11%  
386 2% 8%  
387 0.9% 6%  
388 1.4% 5%  
389 0.7% 4%  
390 0.5% 3%  
391 0.5% 3%  
392 0.7% 2%  
393 0.3% 1.5%  
394 0.4% 1.2%  
395 0.2% 0.8%  
396 0.1% 0.5%  
397 0.1% 0.4%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.9%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.7%  
343 0.2% 99.6%  
344 0.2% 99.4%  
345 0.3% 99.2%  
346 0.6% 98.9%  
347 0.4% 98%  
348 0.6% 98%  
349 0.7% 97%  
350 0.9% 97%  
351 1.5% 96%  
352 1.5% 94%  
353 2% 93%  
354 2% 91%  
355 2% 89% Majority
356 2% 87%  
357 3% 85%  
358 3% 82%  
359 5% 79%  
360 4% 74%  
361 4% 71%  
362 3% 66%  
363 4% 63%  
364 5% 59%  
365 5% 54% Median
366 4% 50%  
367 5% 46%  
368 5% 40%  
369 4% 35%  
370 3% 31%  
371 4% 28%  
372 3% 24%  
373 2% 21%  
374 3% 18%  
375 3% 15%  
376 2% 12%  
377 2% 10%  
378 2% 9%  
379 1.4% 7%  
380 1.3% 5%  
381 0.6% 4%  
382 0.9% 4%  
383 0.7% 3%  
384 0.5% 2%  
385 0.3% 1.4%  
386 0.3% 1.1%  
387 0.2% 0.8%  
388 0.2% 0.6%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.8%  
311 0.1% 99.7%  
312 0.1% 99.6%  
313 0.2% 99.5%  
314 0.3% 99.3%  
315 0.4% 99.0%  
316 0.5% 98.6%  
317 0.5% 98%  
318 0.8% 98%  
319 0.8% 97%  
320 0.8% 96%  
321 2% 95%  
322 2% 94%  
323 2% 92%  
324 2% 90%  
325 3% 89%  
326 2% 86%  
327 3% 83%  
328 4% 80%  
329 3% 76%  
330 4% 73%  
331 3% 69%  
332 5% 65%  
333 4% 61%  
334 3% 57% Median
335 6% 53%  
336 3% 47%  
337 5% 44%  
338 4% 40%  
339 3% 35%  
340 5% 32%  
341 5% 27%  
342 3% 23%  
343 4% 20%  
344 2% 16%  
345 3% 15%  
346 2% 12%  
347 2% 10%  
348 1.4% 8%  
349 1.2% 7%  
350 0.9% 5%  
351 0.8% 4%  
352 0.9% 4%  
353 0.7% 3%  
354 0.5% 2%  
355 0.3% 1.3% Majority
356 0.4% 1.1%  
357 0.2% 0.7%  
358 0.1% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.2% 99.6%  
291 0.2% 99.4%  
292 0.2% 99.2%  
293 0.5% 98.9%  
294 0.3% 98%  
295 0.9% 98%  
296 0.6% 97%  
297 1.0% 97%  
298 1.0% 96%  
299 2% 95%  
300 1.4% 93%  
301 2% 92%  
302 2% 89%  
303 3% 88%  
304 2% 85%  
305 4% 83%  
306 3% 79%  
307 5% 76%  
308 2% 71%  
309 6% 69%  
310 3% 63%  
311 6% 60%  
312 3% 54% Median
313 5% 51%  
314 5% 46%  
315 3% 41%  
316 4% 37%  
317 5% 33%  
318 3% 28%  
319 4% 25%  
320 2% 21%  
321 4% 19%  
322 2% 16%  
323 3% 14%  
324 2% 11%  
325 2% 9%  
326 1.4% 7%  
327 0.9% 6%  
328 1.1% 5%  
329 0.7% 4%  
330 0.8% 3%  
331 0.6% 2%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.4% 1.3%  
334 0.3% 0.9%  
335 0.2% 0.6%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.7%  
268 0.1% 99.6%  
269 0.2% 99.4%  
270 0.4% 99.2%  
271 0.5% 98.8%  
272 0.4% 98%  
273 0.7% 98%  
274 0.9% 97%  
275 1.0% 96%  
276 1.2% 95%  
277 2% 94%  
278 1.3% 92%  
279 2% 91%  
280 3% 89%  
281 3% 86%  
282 3% 83%  
283 3% 80%  
284 3% 76%  
285 4% 74%  
286 5% 70%  
287 4% 65%  
288 5% 61%  
289 5% 56%  
290 4% 50% Median
291 4% 47%  
292 4% 43%  
293 7% 39%  
294 3% 32%  
295 4% 29%  
296 3% 25%  
297 4% 22%  
298 3% 18%  
299 3% 15%  
300 2% 12%  
301 1.5% 10%  
302 2% 9%  
303 2% 7%  
304 1.4% 6%  
305 0.9% 4%  
306 0.4% 3%  
307 0.7% 3%  
308 0.4% 2%  
309 0.7% 2%  
310 0.3% 1.1%  
311 0.2% 0.8%  
312 0.1% 0.6%  
313 0.1% 0.5%  
314 0.1% 0.4%  
315 0.1% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.7%  
260 0.1% 99.6%  
261 0.2% 99.4%  
262 0.3% 99.2%  
263 0.4% 98.9%  
264 0.6% 98.5%  
265 0.5% 98%  
266 0.9% 97%  
267 0.8% 96%  
268 1.0% 96%  
269 2% 95%  
270 2% 93%  
271 2% 92%  
272 2% 89%  
273 3% 87%  
274 4% 84%  
275 2% 81%  
276 4% 78%  
277 4% 74%  
278 3% 70%  
279 4% 67%  
280 4% 63%  
281 6% 59%  
282 5% 53% Median
283 3% 48%  
284 5% 45%  
285 4% 40%  
286 4% 36%  
287 3% 32%  
288 5% 29%  
289 4% 24%  
290 3% 20%  
291 3% 17%  
292 2% 14%  
293 2% 12%  
294 2% 10%  
295 1.4% 8%  
296 1.5% 7%  
297 1.1% 5%  
298 1.0% 4%  
299 0.7% 3%  
300 0.5% 2%  
301 0.4% 2%  
302 0.4% 1.4%  
303 0.2% 1.1%  
304 0.3% 0.8%  
305 0.2% 0.6%  
306 0.1% 0.4%  
307 0.1% 0.3%  
308 0.1% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0.2% 99.7%  
260 0.2% 99.5%  
261 0.1% 99.3%  
262 0.2% 99.2%  
263 0.7% 99.1%  
264 1.2% 98%  
265 0.7% 97%  
266 0.3% 96%  
267 1.0% 96%  
268 2% 95%  
269 2% 93%  
270 0.8% 91%  
271 1.3% 90%  
272 3% 89%  
273 2% 86%  
274 1.3% 84%  
275 2% 83%  
276 8% 81%  
277 6% 73%  
278 3% 67%  
279 0.8% 64%  
280 5% 63%  
281 10% 57% Median
282 6% 47%  
283 0.9% 41%  
284 2% 40%  
285 5% 38%  
286 5% 33%  
287 2% 28%  
288 4% 27%  
289 4% 23%  
290 4% 19%  
291 1.0% 15%  
292 0.8% 14%  
293 3% 13%  
294 4% 10%  
295 1.0% 6%  
296 0.2% 5%  
297 0.7% 4%  
298 1.0% 4%  
299 1.0% 3%  
300 0.2% 2%  
301 0.4% 1.4%  
302 0.3% 1.1%  
303 0.2% 0.8%  
304 0% 0.6%  
305 0.1% 0.5%  
306 0.2% 0.4%  
307 0.1% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0.1% 99.8%  
185 0.2% 99.7%  
186 0.2% 99.5%  
187 0.3% 99.3%  
188 0.3% 99.1%  
189 0.6% 98.8%  
190 0.6% 98%  
191 0.8% 98%  
192 1.2% 97%  
193 1.2% 96%  
194 1.5% 94%  
195 2% 93%  
196 2% 91%  
197 4% 89%  
198 3% 86%  
199 3% 83%  
200 3% 80%  
201 5% 77%  
202 5% 72%  
203 4% 67%  
204 6% 63%  
205 5% 57%  
206 6% 52% Median
207 4% 46%  
208 4% 43%  
209 6% 39%  
210 4% 33%  
211 3% 29%  
212 4% 25%  
213 4% 21%  
214 2% 17%  
215 2% 15%  
216 2% 12%  
217 2% 10%  
218 2% 8%  
219 1.4% 6%  
220 0.8% 5%  
221 0.9% 4%  
222 0.7% 3%  
223 0.4% 2%  
224 0.5% 2%  
225 0.4% 1.3%  
226 0.3% 0.9%  
227 0.1% 0.6%  
228 0.1% 0.4%  
229 0.1% 0.3%  
230 0.1% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1% Last Result
234 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.2% 99.8%  
148 0.1% 99.7%  
149 0.3% 99.5%  
150 0.3% 99.3%  
151 0.4% 99.0%  
152 0.8% 98.6%  
153 0.5% 98%  
154 0.8% 97%  
155 1.5% 96%  
156 1.2% 95%  
157 2% 94%  
158 4% 92%  
159 2% 88%  
160 4% 86%  
161 3% 82%  
162 3% 79%  
163 4% 75%  
164 4% 71%  
165 4% 67%  
166 6% 63%  
167 5% 57% Median
168 7% 52%  
169 5% 45%  
170 5% 40%  
171 5% 35%  
172 3% 30%  
173 4% 27%  
174 3% 22%  
175 3% 19%  
176 3% 16%  
177 3% 13%  
178 3% 10%  
179 2% 8%  
180 2% 6%  
181 1.4% 5%  
182 0.5% 3%  
183 0.6% 3%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.4% 1.1%  
187 0.2% 0.8%  
188 0.2% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations