Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 21–25 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.3–23.8% 19.8–24.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.4–21.8% 17.9–22.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.0% 14.7–17.3% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.7% 11.2–14.0% 10.7–14.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.5% 10.7–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–12.9% 9.8–13.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.7–7.4% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 165 156–173 154–176 152–178 148–182
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 150 142–158 140–161 138–163 134–167
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 112–127 110–130 108–132 105–136
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 94 87–101 85–103 84–104 80–108
Alternative für Deutschland 94 87 80–93 78–95 76–97 74–100
Die Linke 69 49 44–54 43–56 41–57 39–60
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 45 40–50 39–52 38–53 36–56

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.2% 99.7%  
148 0.2% 99.5%  
149 0.3% 99.3%  
150 0.5% 99.1%  
151 0.4% 98.6%  
152 1.2% 98%  
153 1.2% 97%  
154 2% 96%  
155 2% 93%  
156 3% 92%  
157 3% 89%  
158 3% 86%  
159 4% 83%  
160 4% 79%  
161 7% 75%  
162 5% 68%  
163 7% 63%  
164 6% 56%  
165 5% 50% Median
166 6% 45%  
167 3% 39%  
168 7% 35%  
169 4% 29%  
170 6% 25%  
171 3% 19%  
172 4% 16%  
173 2% 12%  
174 2% 9%  
175 2% 7%  
176 1.2% 5%  
177 1.0% 4%  
178 0.7% 3%  
179 0.7% 2%  
180 0.5% 2%  
181 0.4% 1.1%  
182 0.3% 0.7%  
183 0.1% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0.1% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0.2% 99.7%  
134 0.3% 99.6%  
135 0.3% 99.3%  
136 0.7% 99.0%  
137 0.5% 98%  
138 1.4% 98%  
139 1.1% 96%  
140 2% 95%  
141 3% 93%  
142 2% 91%  
143 5% 88%  
144 3% 84%  
145 5% 80%  
146 6% 76%  
147 4% 70%  
148 9% 66%  
149 4% 57%  
150 6% 53% Median
151 6% 47%  
152 6% 41%  
153 6% 35%  
154 4% 29%  
155 5% 25%  
156 3% 20%  
157 4% 17%  
158 3% 13%  
159 2% 10%  
160 3% 8%  
161 1.4% 5%  
162 1.2% 4%  
163 0.7% 3%  
164 0.8% 2%  
165 0.3% 1.3%  
166 0.3% 0.9%  
167 0.3% 0.7%  
168 0.1% 0.4%  
169 0.1% 0.3%  
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.3% 99.6%  
106 0.4% 99.3%  
107 0.5% 98.9%  
108 1.1% 98%  
109 1.5% 97%  
110 1.1% 96%  
111 3% 95%  
112 3% 92%  
113 3% 89%  
114 5% 86%  
115 4% 81%  
116 6% 77%  
117 7% 71%  
118 6% 64%  
119 8% 58%  
120 7% 51% Median
121 5% 44%  
122 7% 39%  
123 6% 32%  
124 5% 26%  
125 5% 21%  
126 3% 16%  
127 3% 13%  
128 2% 10%  
129 2% 7%  
130 2% 5%  
131 1.1% 4%  
132 0.8% 3%  
133 0.7% 2%  
134 0.3% 1.1%  
135 0.3% 0.8%  
136 0.2% 0.5%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
81 0.3% 99.5%  
82 0.7% 99.2%  
83 1.0% 98%  
84 1.1% 98%  
85 2% 96%  
86 3% 94%  
87 2% 91%  
88 5% 89%  
89 4% 84%  
90 6% 80%  
91 7% 74%  
92 7% 67%  
93 8% 60%  
94 8% 52% Median
95 6% 44%  
96 8% 38%  
97 6% 31%  
98 5% 24%  
99 5% 19%  
100 3% 14%  
101 4% 11%  
102 2% 8%  
103 1.4% 5%  
104 1.3% 4%  
105 0.9% 2%  
106 0.3% 2%  
107 0.6% 1.2%  
108 0.2% 0.7%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.4% 99.5%  
75 0.8% 99.2%  
76 0.9% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 96%  
79 3% 94%  
80 3% 91%  
81 5% 88%  
82 5% 83%  
83 7% 79%  
84 7% 72%  
85 8% 65%  
86 6% 56%  
87 9% 50% Median
88 7% 42%  
89 8% 35%  
90 6% 27%  
91 6% 21%  
92 4% 16%  
93 3% 12%  
94 2% 8% Last Result
95 2% 6%  
96 1.3% 4%  
97 1.0% 3%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.5% 1.2%  
100 0.3% 0.7%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 0.7% 99.3%  
41 1.4% 98.6%  
42 2% 97%  
43 4% 95%  
44 5% 91%  
45 7% 87%  
46 8% 79%  
47 9% 71%  
48 8% 62%  
49 13% 54% Median
50 9% 41%  
51 8% 33%  
52 6% 25%  
53 7% 19%  
54 4% 12%  
55 3% 8%  
56 2% 5%  
57 1.3% 3%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.5% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.5%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.6%  
37 0.7% 99.1%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 97%  
40 4% 94%  
41 6% 90%  
42 7% 84%  
43 7% 77%  
44 14% 69%  
45 10% 55% Median
46 9% 45% Last Result
47 9% 36%  
48 7% 27%  
49 6% 20%  
50 6% 14%  
51 3% 9%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.6% 1.2%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 480 100% 471–490 468–492 466–495 461–499
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 454 100% 444–464 442–467 439–469 434–474
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 409 100% 399–419 396–422 394–424 389–430
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 378 99.9% 368–389 365–391 363–394 358–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 376 99.6% 365–386 363–389 360–391 355–396
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 360 77% 350–370 347–373 345–376 340–381
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 333 0.4% 323–344 320–346 318–349 313–354
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 315 0% 305–325 302–328 300–331 295–336
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 289 0% 279–299 277–302 274–305 269–310
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 285 0% 275–294 272–297 270–300 265–305
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 282 0% 272–292 269–295 267–297 262–302
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 212 0% 203–224 202–226 201–227 194–233
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 169 0% 160–177 158–180 156–182 151–186

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
455 0% 100%  
456 0% 99.9%  
457 0% 99.9%  
458 0.1% 99.9%  
459 0.1% 99.8%  
460 0.1% 99.7%  
461 0.3% 99.6%  
462 0.3% 99.3%  
463 0.5% 99.0%  
464 0.4% 98.6%  
465 0.6% 98%  
466 1.2% 98% Last Result
467 0.9% 96%  
468 1.4% 95%  
469 2% 94%  
470 2% 92%  
471 3% 90%  
472 2% 87%  
473 3% 84%  
474 4% 81%  
475 5% 77%  
476 4% 72%  
477 4% 68%  
478 7% 64%  
479 5% 57%  
480 7% 52% Median
481 6% 46%  
482 4% 40%  
483 6% 35%  
484 4% 30%  
485 4% 26%  
486 5% 22%  
487 3% 18%  
488 3% 15%  
489 2% 12%  
490 2% 10%  
491 2% 8%  
492 1.1% 6%  
493 1.0% 4%  
494 0.8% 3%  
495 0.9% 3%  
496 0.6% 2%  
497 0.2% 1.2%  
498 0.3% 0.9%  
499 0.2% 0.7%  
500 0.1% 0.5%  
501 0.1% 0.3%  
502 0% 0.3%  
503 0% 0.2%  
504 0% 0.2%  
505 0% 0.2%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.8%  
433 0.1% 99.7%  
434 0.2% 99.6%  
435 0.2% 99.4%  
436 0.3% 99.2%  
437 0.4% 98.9%  
438 0.7% 98.5%  
439 0.7% 98%  
440 0.9% 97%  
441 1.1% 96%  
442 2% 95%  
443 2% 93%  
444 3% 92%  
445 3% 89%  
446 2% 86%  
447 3% 83%  
448 4% 80%  
449 4% 76%  
450 4% 72%  
451 5% 68%  
452 5% 64%  
453 4% 59%  
454 7% 54% Median
455 5% 47%  
456 5% 42%  
457 5% 37%  
458 6% 32%  
459 5% 27%  
460 3% 22%  
461 3% 19%  
462 3% 16%  
463 2% 13%  
464 3% 11%  
465 2% 8%  
466 1.5% 7%  
467 1.0% 5%  
468 0.9% 4%  
469 1.2% 3%  
470 0.5% 2%  
471 0.5% 1.5%  
472 0.3% 1.0%  
473 0.2% 0.7%  
474 0.1% 0.5%  
475 0.1% 0.4%  
476 0.1% 0.3%  
477 0% 0.2%  
478 0% 0.2%  
479 0% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.9%  
387 0.1% 99.8%  
388 0.1% 99.7%  
389 0.2% 99.6%  
390 0.3% 99.3%  
391 0.3% 99.0%  
392 0.5% 98.7%  
393 0.6% 98%  
394 0.8% 98%  
395 1.0% 97%  
396 2% 96%  
397 1.4% 94%  
398 1.2% 93%  
399 3% 92%  
400 2% 88%  
401 2% 86%  
402 4% 84%  
403 5% 80%  
404 3% 75%  
405 5% 72%  
406 4% 67%  
407 5% 63%  
408 4% 58%  
409 6% 53% Median
410 6% 47%  
411 4% 41%  
412 3% 38%  
413 7% 34%  
414 4% 28%  
415 5% 24%  
416 3% 19%  
417 3% 16%  
418 2% 13%  
419 3% 11%  
420 2% 9%  
421 1.4% 7%  
422 1.3% 5%  
423 1.1% 4%  
424 0.8% 3%  
425 0.5% 2%  
426 0.5% 2%  
427 0.3% 1.3%  
428 0.2% 0.9%  
429 0.2% 0.7%  
430 0.1% 0.5%  
431 0.1% 0.4%  
432 0.1% 0.3%  
433 0.1% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0.1% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0.2% 99.6%  
359 0.2% 99.4%  
360 0.2% 99.2%  
361 0.5% 99.0%  
362 0.6% 98%  
363 0.9% 98%  
364 1.1% 97%  
365 1.2% 96%  
366 2% 95%  
367 2% 93%  
368 2% 91%  
369 2% 90%  
370 4% 88%  
371 4% 84%  
372 5% 81%  
373 4% 76%  
374 4% 72%  
375 4% 68%  
376 4% 64%  
377 6% 60%  
378 4% 54%  
379 5% 50% Median
380 6% 45%  
381 4% 39%  
382 4% 34%  
383 4% 31%  
384 5% 27%  
385 3% 22%  
386 4% 18%  
387 2% 15%  
388 3% 13%  
389 2% 10%  
390 1.4% 8%  
391 2% 6%  
392 1.1% 5%  
393 1.1% 4%  
394 0.7% 3%  
395 0.4% 2%  
396 0.4% 2%  
397 0.3% 1.2%  
398 0.3% 0.9%  
399 0.2% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.7%  
355 0.2% 99.6% Majority
356 0.2% 99.5%  
357 0.4% 99.3%  
358 0.3% 98.9%  
359 0.9% 98.6%  
360 0.4% 98%  
361 1.2% 97%  
362 0.7% 96%  
363 2% 95%  
364 2% 94%  
365 2% 92%  
366 2% 90%  
367 3% 87%  
368 4% 85%  
369 2% 81%  
370 4% 78%  
371 3% 74%  
372 5% 71%  
373 5% 66%  
374 5% 61%  
375 4% 55%  
376 4% 51% Median
377 6% 47%  
378 3% 40%  
379 6% 37%  
380 2% 31%  
381 6% 29%  
382 4% 23%  
383 4% 20%  
384 2% 16%  
385 3% 14%  
386 2% 11%  
387 2% 9%  
388 1.5% 7%  
389 1.0% 5%  
390 1.4% 4%  
391 0.5% 3%  
392 0.7% 2%  
393 0.4% 2%  
394 0.3% 1.2%  
395 0.3% 0.9%  
396 0.2% 0.7%  
397 0.1% 0.5%  
398 0.1% 0.4%  
399 0.1% 0.3%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.2% 99.7%  
340 0.2% 99.5%  
341 0.2% 99.4%  
342 0.4% 99.1%  
343 0.7% 98.7%  
344 0.5% 98%  
345 0.8% 98%  
346 0.7% 97%  
347 1.4% 96%  
348 1.1% 95%  
349 3% 93%  
350 3% 91%  
351 3% 88%  
352 3% 85%  
353 3% 83%  
354 3% 80%  
355 4% 77% Majority
356 4% 73%  
357 5% 69%  
358 8% 65%  
359 5% 56%  
360 5% 52% Median
361 5% 47%  
362 3% 42%  
363 5% 39%  
364 4% 33%  
365 6% 30%  
366 3% 24%  
367 3% 21%  
368 4% 17%  
369 2% 14%  
370 3% 12%  
371 2% 9%  
372 1.1% 7%  
373 1.4% 6%  
374 1.0% 5%  
375 1.0% 4%  
376 0.5% 3%  
377 0.6% 2%  
378 0.4% 2%  
379 0.5% 1.2%  
380 0.2% 0.7%  
381 0.2% 0.6%  
382 0.1% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.8%  
311 0.1% 99.7%  
312 0.1% 99.6%  
313 0.2% 99.5%  
314 0.3% 99.3%  
315 0.3% 99.1%  
316 0.4% 98.8%  
317 0.7% 98%  
318 0.5% 98%  
319 1.4% 97%  
320 1.0% 96%  
321 1.5% 95%  
322 2% 93%  
323 2% 91%  
324 3% 89%  
325 2% 86%  
326 4% 84%  
327 4% 80%  
328 6% 77%  
329 2% 71%  
330 6% 69%  
331 3% 63%  
332 6% 60%  
333 4% 53%  
334 4% 49% Median
335 5% 45%  
336 5% 39%  
337 5% 34%  
338 3% 29%  
339 4% 26%  
340 2% 22%  
341 4% 19%  
342 3% 15%  
343 2% 13%  
344 2% 10%  
345 2% 8%  
346 2% 6%  
347 0.7% 5%  
348 1.2% 4%  
349 0.4% 3%  
350 0.9% 2%  
351 0.3% 1.4%  
352 0.4% 1.1%  
353 0.2% 0.7%  
354 0.2% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.4% Majority
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.2% 99.6%  
296 0.3% 99.4%  
297 0.3% 99.1%  
298 0.4% 98.8%  
299 0.7% 98%  
300 1.0% 98%  
301 0.8% 97%  
302 2% 96%  
303 0.9% 94%  
304 2% 93%  
305 2% 91%  
306 3% 89%  
307 3% 87%  
308 4% 84%  
309 3% 80%  
310 5% 77%  
311 5% 72%  
312 4% 67%  
313 4% 63%  
314 7% 59%  
315 4% 52% Median
316 4% 47%  
317 5% 43%  
318 6% 38%  
319 3% 32%  
320 5% 29%  
321 3% 24%  
322 4% 22%  
323 3% 17%  
324 3% 14%  
325 1.4% 11%  
326 2% 9%  
327 1.4% 7%  
328 1.3% 6%  
329 1.1% 4%  
330 0.8% 3%  
331 0.6% 3%  
332 0.6% 2%  
333 0.4% 1.4%  
334 0.2% 1.0%  
335 0.1% 0.7%  
336 0.2% 0.6%  
337 0.2% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.7%  
269 0.2% 99.6%  
270 0.3% 99.5%  
271 0.3% 99.2%  
272 0.4% 98.9%  
273 0.6% 98.5%  
274 0.9% 98%  
275 1.0% 97%  
276 1.0% 96%  
277 2% 95%  
278 2% 93%  
279 2% 92%  
280 3% 89%  
281 3% 86%  
282 3% 84%  
283 4% 80%  
284 4% 77%  
285 5% 73%  
286 5% 68%  
287 4% 63%  
288 5% 59%  
289 5% 53% Median
290 4% 48%  
291 6% 44%  
292 4% 38%  
293 3% 34%  
294 5% 30%  
295 4% 26%  
296 4% 21%  
297 3% 17%  
298 3% 14%  
299 2% 12%  
300 3% 9%  
301 1.2% 7%  
302 1.1% 6%  
303 1.0% 4%  
304 0.8% 3%  
305 0.8% 3%  
306 0.5% 2%  
307 0.3% 1.4%  
308 0.4% 1.1%  
309 0.2% 0.7%  
310 0.2% 0.6%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.3%  
313 0% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.2% 99.6%  
266 0.3% 99.4%  
267 0.4% 99.1%  
268 0.5% 98.6%  
269 0.6% 98%  
270 1.0% 98%  
271 1.2% 97%  
272 2% 95%  
273 1.5% 94%  
274 1.4% 92%  
275 2% 91%  
276 5% 89%  
277 3% 84%  
278 3% 81%  
279 3% 78%  
280 4% 75%  
281 5% 70%  
282 7% 65%  
283 3% 58%  
284 4% 54%  
285 5% 51% Median
286 5% 46%  
287 6% 40%  
288 6% 34%  
289 3% 28%  
290 3% 26%  
291 3% 23%  
292 6% 20%  
293 2% 14%  
294 2% 12%  
295 2% 10%  
296 1.5% 8%  
297 2% 7%  
298 2% 5%  
299 0.5% 3%  
300 0.6% 3%  
301 0.7% 2%  
302 0.4% 2%  
303 0.3% 1.1%  
304 0.2% 0.8%  
305 0.1% 0.6%  
306 0.1% 0.5%  
307 0.1% 0.3%  
308 0.1% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.2% 99.6%  
263 0.3% 99.4%  
264 0.3% 99.1%  
265 0.5% 98.8%  
266 0.6% 98%  
267 1.0% 98%  
268 0.8% 97%  
269 2% 96%  
270 2% 94%  
271 2% 92%  
272 2% 90%  
273 2% 88%  
274 3% 86%  
275 3% 83%  
276 6% 80%  
277 3% 74%  
278 5% 71%  
279 4% 66%  
280 6% 62%  
281 4% 56%  
282 6% 52% Median
283 5% 46%  
284 5% 41%  
285 4% 36%  
286 4% 32%  
287 4% 28%  
288 3% 24%  
289 3% 20%  
290 4% 17%  
291 3% 13%  
292 2% 10%  
293 2% 8%  
294 2% 7%  
295 1.3% 5%  
296 1.0% 4%  
297 0.7% 3%  
298 0.5% 2%  
299 0.5% 2%  
300 0.4% 1.2%  
301 0.2% 0.8%  
302 0.2% 0.6%  
303 0.1% 0.4%  
304 0.1% 0.3%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0% 100%  
193 0.2% 99.9%  
194 0.3% 99.7%  
195 0.3% 99.4%  
196 0.2% 99.1%  
197 0.1% 98.9%  
198 0% 98.8%  
199 0.1% 98.8%  
200 0.9% 98.7%  
201 2% 98%  
202 4% 96%  
203 3% 92%  
204 2% 89%  
205 0.4% 87%  
206 0.2% 87%  
207 0.9% 86%  
208 4% 85%  
209 9% 82%  
210 11% 73%  
211 9% 62%  
212 4% 53%  
213 0.6% 50%  
214 0.4% 49% Median
215 1.2% 49%  
216 7% 47%  
217 8% 41%  
218 12% 33%  
219 5% 20%  
220 2% 15%  
221 0.3% 13%  
222 0.2% 13%  
223 0.8% 12%  
224 2% 12%  
225 3% 9%  
226 3% 6%  
227 1.1% 3%  
228 0.4% 2%  
229 0.1% 1.4%  
230 0.1% 1.3%  
231 0.2% 1.3%  
232 0.3% 1.1%  
233 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
234 0.2% 0.4%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.8%  
148 0% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.7%  
151 0.1% 99.6%  
152 0.3% 99.5%  
153 0.4% 99.1%  
154 0.6% 98.8%  
155 0.6% 98%  
156 0.8% 98%  
157 2% 97%  
158 1.3% 95%  
159 3% 94%  
160 3% 91%  
161 4% 88%  
162 4% 85%  
163 3% 81%  
164 4% 77%  
165 7% 73%  
166 4% 66%  
167 6% 62%  
168 6% 56%  
169 5% 50% Median
170 6% 45%  
171 6% 39%  
172 5% 33%  
173 5% 27%  
174 4% 22%  
175 3% 19%  
176 3% 15%  
177 2% 12%  
178 2% 10%  
179 2% 8%  
180 1.2% 5%  
181 1.2% 4%  
182 0.8% 3%  
183 0.8% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.5%  
185 0.4% 1.1%  
186 0.2% 0.7%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations