Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 18–25 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.8–24.2% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.4% 19.2–21.6% 18.9–21.9% 18.7–22.2% 18.1–22.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.0% 10.2–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.7% 4.1–5.3% 3.9–5.5% 3.8–5.7% 3.6–6.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 173 164–182 161–185 160–187 155–192
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 153 145–162 142–164 140–166 136–171
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 98 91–106 89–108 87–110 84–113
Alternative für Deutschland 94 98 91–105 89–107 88–109 84–113
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 83 77–90 75–92 73–94 70–97
Die Linke 69 68 62–74 60–76 58–78 56–80
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 35 31–40 30–41 29–43 27–45

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.2% 99.7%  
156 0.2% 99.5%  
157 0.4% 99.2%  
158 0.6% 98.8%  
159 0.8% 98%  
160 0.9% 98%  
161 2% 97%  
162 2% 95%  
163 2% 93%  
164 3% 91%  
165 3% 89%  
166 4% 86%  
167 4% 82%  
168 4% 78%  
169 5% 75%  
170 6% 69%  
171 5% 64%  
172 7% 59%  
173 6% 52% Median
174 5% 46%  
175 5% 41%  
176 5% 36%  
177 5% 31%  
178 4% 26%  
179 4% 22%  
180 4% 18%  
181 3% 15%  
182 2% 11%  
183 2% 9%  
184 2% 7%  
185 2% 5%  
186 0.7% 4%  
187 0.9% 3%  
188 0.6% 2%  
189 0.5% 1.4%  
190 0.3% 1.0%  
191 0.2% 0.7%  
192 0.2% 0.5%  
193 0.1% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.8%  
136 0.2% 99.7%  
137 0.2% 99.5%  
138 0.5% 99.2%  
139 0.6% 98.7%  
140 0.6% 98%  
141 1.0% 97%  
142 1.5% 96%  
143 2% 95%  
144 2% 93%  
145 3% 91%  
146 3% 88%  
147 4% 85%  
148 4% 80%  
149 5% 77%  
150 5% 72%  
151 5% 67%  
152 6% 61%  
153 7% 55% Median
154 5% 48%  
155 6% 43%  
156 6% 37%  
157 5% 31%  
158 5% 26%  
159 3% 21%  
160 4% 17%  
161 3% 14%  
162 3% 11%  
163 2% 8%  
164 2% 6%  
165 0.9% 4%  
166 1.0% 3%  
167 0.6% 2%  
168 0.5% 2%  
169 0.3% 1.2%  
170 0.3% 0.9%  
171 0.2% 0.6%  
172 0.2% 0.4%  
173 0.1% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.6%  
85 0.5% 99.3%  
86 0.7% 98.8%  
87 1.0% 98%  
88 1.4% 97%  
89 2% 96%  
90 3% 94%  
91 3% 91%  
92 5% 88%  
93 4% 83%  
94 5% 79%  
95 6% 74%  
96 6% 68%  
97 7% 62%  
98 7% 55% Median
99 6% 47%  
100 6% 42%  
101 7% 36%  
102 5% 29%  
103 5% 24%  
104 5% 19%  
105 3% 14%  
106 3% 11%  
107 2% 8%  
108 1.4% 5%  
109 1.3% 4%  
110 0.9% 3%  
111 0.5% 2%  
112 0.3% 1.1%  
113 0.3% 0.7%  
114 0.2% 0.4%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.4%  
86 0.7% 99.0%  
87 0.8% 98%  
88 2% 98%  
89 2% 96%  
90 3% 94%  
91 4% 92%  
92 4% 88%  
93 4% 83%  
94 7% 79% Last Result
95 7% 72%  
96 7% 65%  
97 8% 59%  
98 6% 50% Median
99 6% 44%  
100 7% 38%  
101 5% 31%  
102 5% 25%  
103 5% 20%  
104 4% 15%  
105 3% 12%  
106 3% 9%  
107 2% 7%  
108 1.2% 4%  
109 1.0% 3%  
110 0.8% 2%  
111 0.5% 1.5%  
112 0.3% 1.0%  
113 0.3% 0.7%  
114 0.1% 0.4%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.4% 99.4%  
72 0.8% 99.0%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 3% 94%  
77 5% 91%  
78 5% 86%  
79 6% 82%  
80 7% 76% Last Result
81 6% 69%  
82 9% 63%  
83 7% 54% Median
84 8% 47%  
85 7% 39%  
86 6% 32%  
87 5% 26%  
88 5% 21%  
89 4% 16%  
90 4% 12%  
91 2% 8%  
92 2% 6%  
93 1.0% 4%  
94 1.2% 3%  
95 0.7% 2%  
96 0.4% 1.1%  
97 0.3% 0.7%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 0.2% 99.3%  
58 2% 99.0%  
59 0.6% 97%  
60 4% 97%  
61 0.8% 93%  
62 7% 92%  
63 0.9% 85%  
64 12% 85%  
65 1.4% 73%  
66 15% 71%  
67 2% 57%  
68 15% 55% Median
69 1.2% 40% Last Result
70 13% 38%  
71 0.9% 25%  
72 10% 24%  
73 0.5% 14%  
74 6% 13%  
75 0.4% 7%  
76 4% 7%  
77 0.2% 3%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.1% 1.2%  
80 0.7% 1.1%  
81 0% 0.4%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.7% 99.7%  
28 1.3% 99.0%  
29 2% 98%  
30 3% 96%  
31 5% 93%  
32 8% 88%  
33 12% 80%  
34 10% 68%  
35 10% 58% Median
36 8% 48%  
37 9% 39%  
38 10% 30%  
39 7% 20%  
40 5% 13%  
41 3% 8%  
42 2% 5%  
43 1.3% 3%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 460 100% 450–470 447–473 445–475 440–479
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 445 100% 435–455 432–458 429–460 425–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 369 97% 360–381 356–383 354–386 349–391
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 370 97% 359–381 357–383 354–386 349–391
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 362 82% 352–372 349–375 346–378 341–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 355 51% 344–365 341–368 339–370 333–376
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 340 3% 328–349 326–353 323–355 318–360
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 287 0% 277–298 274–300 271–303 266–308
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 287 0% 276–297 273–300 271–302 266–307
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 273 0% 262–281 260–286 258–288 250–290
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 272 0% 262–282 259–285 256–287 252–292
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 182 0% 172–191 169–193 168–195 163–200
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 166 0% 157–175 155–177 153–179 148–184

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0.1% 99.8%  
439 0.2% 99.7%  
440 0.2% 99.5%  
441 0.3% 99.3%  
442 0.3% 99.0%  
443 0.4% 98.7%  
444 0.7% 98%  
445 1.1% 98%  
446 0.9% 97%  
447 1.4% 96%  
448 1.2% 94%  
449 2% 93%  
450 1.5% 91%  
451 3% 90%  
452 4% 87%  
453 4% 83%  
454 3% 79%  
455 3% 76%  
456 3% 72%  
457 4% 69%  
458 6% 65%  
459 5% 58% Median
460 7% 53%  
461 4% 47%  
462 4% 43%  
463 4% 39%  
464 4% 34%  
465 6% 30%  
466 5% 25% Last Result
467 3% 20%  
468 2% 16%  
469 2% 14%  
470 3% 12%  
471 3% 9%  
472 2% 7%  
473 1.5% 5%  
474 0.8% 4%  
475 0.6% 3%  
476 0.6% 2%  
477 0.4% 2%  
478 0.4% 1.2%  
479 0.3% 0.8%  
480 0.1% 0.5%  
481 0.1% 0.4%  
482 0.1% 0.2%  
483 0.1% 0.2%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.8%  
424 0.1% 99.7%  
425 0.2% 99.5%  
426 0.3% 99.3%  
427 0.3% 99.0%  
428 0.4% 98.6%  
429 0.7% 98%  
430 0.8% 97%  
431 0.8% 97%  
432 1.3% 96%  
433 2% 95%  
434 2% 93%  
435 2% 91%  
436 3% 89%  
437 3% 87%  
438 4% 84%  
439 4% 80%  
440 4% 76%  
441 5% 73%  
442 5% 68%  
443 4% 63%  
444 4% 59% Median
445 7% 55%  
446 5% 47%  
447 4% 42%  
448 5% 38%  
449 6% 33%  
450 3% 27%  
451 4% 25%  
452 4% 20%  
453 2% 16%  
454 3% 14%  
455 3% 11%  
456 2% 8%  
457 1.3% 7%  
458 2% 6%  
459 1.2% 4%  
460 0.6% 3%  
461 0.5% 2%  
462 0.5% 2%  
463 0.4% 1.2%  
464 0.3% 0.8%  
465 0.1% 0.6%  
466 0.2% 0.4%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.2% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.6%  
350 0.2% 99.5%  
351 0.5% 99.3%  
352 0.5% 98.8%  
353 0.4% 98%  
354 1.2% 98%  
355 1.0% 97% Majority
356 1.1% 96%  
357 1.0% 95%  
358 2% 94%  
359 1.4% 92%  
360 2% 90%  
361 2% 89%  
362 2% 86%  
363 4% 84%  
364 5% 80%  
365 5% 75%  
366 5% 70%  
367 4% 65%  
368 7% 61%  
369 5% 54% Median
370 4% 50%  
371 6% 45%  
372 3% 40%  
373 4% 37%  
374 3% 32%  
375 5% 29%  
376 3% 24%  
377 2% 22%  
378 4% 19%  
379 3% 15%  
380 2% 12%  
381 3% 10%  
382 2% 7%  
383 2% 5%  
384 0.7% 4%  
385 0.7% 3%  
386 0.7% 3%  
387 0.4% 2%  
388 0.4% 1.5%  
389 0.2% 1.1%  
390 0.2% 0.9%  
391 0.2% 0.7%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.7%  
349 0.1% 99.5%  
350 0.2% 99.4%  
351 0.3% 99.2%  
352 0.5% 98.8%  
353 0.4% 98%  
354 0.8% 98%  
355 0.8% 97% Majority
356 1.4% 96%  
357 0.9% 95%  
358 2% 94%  
359 2% 92%  
360 2% 90%  
361 2% 88%  
362 3% 86%  
363 3% 83%  
364 4% 80%  
365 3% 76%  
366 5% 73%  
367 5% 68%  
368 4% 63%  
369 5% 59% Median
370 5% 54%  
371 5% 50%  
372 4% 44%  
373 4% 40%  
374 5% 36%  
375 4% 31%  
376 4% 27%  
377 4% 23%  
378 3% 19%  
379 3% 16%  
380 2% 12%  
381 2% 10%  
382 2% 8%  
383 2% 6%  
384 0.9% 5%  
385 1.2% 4%  
386 0.6% 3%  
387 0.5% 2%  
388 0.4% 1.5%  
389 0.3% 1.1%  
390 0.2% 0.8%  
391 0.2% 0.6%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.7%  
341 0.2% 99.6%  
342 0.3% 99.4%  
343 0.3% 99.1%  
344 0.5% 98.8%  
345 0.5% 98%  
346 0.8% 98%  
347 1.0% 97%  
348 0.8% 96%  
349 2% 95%  
350 2% 93%  
351 2% 92%  
352 3% 90%  
353 3% 87%  
354 3% 85%  
355 4% 82% Majority
356 3% 78%  
357 4% 74%  
358 4% 71%  
359 5% 67%  
360 4% 62%  
361 5% 57% Median
362 6% 52%  
363 5% 46%  
364 4% 41%  
365 5% 37%  
366 3% 31%  
367 4% 29%  
368 5% 25%  
369 3% 20%  
370 4% 18%  
371 2% 14%  
372 2% 12%  
373 3% 10%  
374 1.4% 7%  
375 0.9% 6%  
376 1.0% 5%  
377 0.9% 4%  
378 0.7% 3%  
379 0.6% 2%  
380 0.3% 1.3%  
381 0.3% 1.1%  
382 0.2% 0.7%  
383 0.2% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.2% 99.6%  
334 0.2% 99.4%  
335 0.3% 99.3%  
336 0.5% 98.9%  
337 0.5% 98%  
338 0.5% 98%  
339 0.9% 98%  
340 1.0% 97%  
341 2% 96%  
342 2% 94%  
343 2% 92%  
344 2% 90%  
345 3% 88%  
346 3% 85%  
347 3% 83%  
348 4% 80%  
349 3% 76%  
350 5% 73%  
351 3% 68%  
352 5% 65%  
353 5% 60%  
354 4% 55% Median
355 4% 51% Majority
356 6% 47%  
357 4% 41%  
358 5% 38%  
359 5% 32%  
360 4% 27%  
361 3% 23%  
362 3% 20%  
363 3% 17%  
364 2% 14%  
365 2% 12%  
366 2% 9%  
367 2% 7%  
368 1.2% 6%  
369 1.2% 5%  
370 1.0% 3%  
371 0.4% 2%  
372 0.7% 2%  
373 0.4% 1.4%  
374 0.3% 1.0%  
375 0.2% 0.7%  
376 0.2% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.7%  
318 0.2% 99.6%  
319 0.2% 99.3%  
320 0.2% 99.1%  
321 0.4% 98.9%  
322 0.4% 98.5%  
323 0.7% 98%  
324 0.7% 97%  
325 0.7% 97%  
326 2% 96%  
327 2% 95%  
328 3% 93%  
329 2% 90%  
330 3% 88%  
331 4% 85%  
332 2% 81%  
333 3% 78%  
334 5% 76%  
335 3% 71%  
336 4% 68%  
337 3% 63%  
338 6% 60%  
339 4% 55% Median
340 5% 50%  
341 7% 46%  
342 4% 39%  
343 5% 35%  
344 5% 30%  
345 5% 25%  
346 4% 20%  
347 2% 16%  
348 2% 14%  
349 2% 11%  
350 1.4% 10%  
351 2% 8%  
352 1.0% 6%  
353 1.1% 5%  
354 1.0% 4%  
355 1.2% 3% Majority
356 0.4% 2%  
357 0.5% 2%  
358 0.5% 1.2%  
359 0.2% 0.7%  
360 0.1% 0.5%  
361 0.2% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.2%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.2% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.4% 99.3%  
269 0.2% 98.9%  
270 0.7% 98.7%  
271 0.7% 98%  
272 0.7% 97%  
273 1.4% 97%  
274 0.7% 95%  
275 3% 94%  
276 1.3% 92%  
277 2% 91%  
278 3% 88%  
279 3% 86%  
280 4% 83%  
281 3% 78%  
282 6% 76%  
283 2% 70%  
284 5% 68%  
285 4% 62%  
286 5% 58% Median
287 7% 53%  
288 3% 47%  
289 7% 44%  
290 2% 37%  
291 6% 34%  
292 3% 29%  
293 3% 26%  
294 5% 22%  
295 2% 17%  
296 4% 15%  
297 0.8% 11%  
298 3% 10%  
299 0.9% 7%  
300 2% 6%  
301 1.1% 4%  
302 0.6% 3%  
303 1.0% 3%  
304 0.3% 2%  
305 0.5% 1.4%  
306 0.2% 0.9%  
307 0.3% 0.8%  
308 0.1% 0.5%  
309 0.1% 0.4%  
310 0.1% 0.3%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0.1% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.2% 99.6%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.4% 99.3%  
269 0.5% 98.9%  
270 0.5% 98%  
271 0.7% 98%  
272 0.8% 97%  
273 2% 96%  
274 1.4% 95%  
275 2% 93%  
276 2% 92%  
277 2% 90%  
278 4% 88%  
279 3% 84%  
280 2% 81%  
281 6% 79%  
282 2% 73%  
283 6% 71%  
284 6% 65%  
285 4% 59%  
286 5% 55% Median
287 5% 50%  
288 5% 45%  
289 5% 40%  
290 3% 35%  
291 6% 32%  
292 3% 26%  
293 2% 23%  
294 3% 20%  
295 3% 17%  
296 4% 14%  
297 2% 11%  
298 2% 9%  
299 2% 7%  
300 1.4% 5%  
301 0.9% 4%  
302 0.8% 3%  
303 0.5% 2%  
304 0.6% 2%  
305 0.3% 1.3%  
306 0.3% 1.0%  
307 0.2% 0.7%  
308 0.1% 0.5%  
309 0.1% 0.4%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0.1% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0.2% 99.9%  
250 0.4% 99.7%  
251 0.4% 99.4%  
252 0.4% 99.0%  
253 0.4% 98.5%  
254 0.2% 98%  
255 0.2% 98%  
256 0.1% 98%  
257 0.1% 98%  
258 0.4% 98%  
259 0.8% 97%  
260 3% 96%  
261 4% 94%  
262 6% 90%  
263 5% 84%  
264 7% 79%  
265 4% 72%  
266 3% 68%  
267 1.3% 65%  
268 0.6% 64%  
269 0.6% 64%  
270 1.1% 63%  
271 2% 62% Median
272 5% 60%  
273 7% 55%  
274 10% 48%  
275 10% 38%  
276 8% 28%  
277 5% 20%  
278 3% 14%  
279 0.9% 11%  
280 0.4% 10%  
281 0.2% 10%  
282 0.3% 10%  
283 0.8% 10%  
284 0.9% 9%  
285 2% 8%  
286 2% 6%  
287 2% 4%  
288 1.4% 3%  
289 0.5% 1.1%  
290 0.3% 0.6%  
291 0.1% 0.3%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.2% 99.6%  
253 0.4% 99.4%  
254 0.4% 99.0%  
255 0.6% 98.6%  
256 0.6% 98%  
257 0.6% 97%  
258 1.0% 97%  
259 1.1% 96%  
260 2% 95%  
261 1.4% 93%  
262 3% 92%  
263 2% 89%  
264 3% 86%  
265 4% 83%  
266 3% 79%  
267 2% 76%  
268 7% 73%  
269 4% 67%  
270 3% 63%  
271 7% 60% Median
272 4% 53%  
273 6% 48%  
274 7% 42%  
275 5% 36%  
276 3% 31%  
277 3% 27%  
278 4% 24%  
279 3% 20%  
280 2% 17%  
281 4% 15%  
282 2% 12%  
283 2% 9%  
284 2% 7%  
285 0.9% 5%  
286 1.3% 4%  
287 0.7% 3%  
288 0.3% 2%  
289 0.4% 2%  
290 0.4% 1.3%  
291 0.3% 1.0%  
292 0.2% 0.7%  
293 0.2% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0.2% 99.8%  
163 0.1% 99.6%  
164 0.2% 99.5%  
165 0.6% 99.3%  
166 0.7% 98.7%  
167 0.3% 98%  
168 1.3% 98%  
169 2% 96%  
170 1.0% 94%  
171 2% 93%  
172 3% 92%  
173 4% 89%  
174 1.1% 85%  
175 5% 84%  
176 6% 79%  
177 3% 73%  
178 2% 69%  
179 7% 68%  
180 7% 61%  
181 2% 54% Median
182 5% 52%  
183 8% 47%  
184 5% 39%  
185 2% 34%  
186 6% 32%  
187 7% 26%  
188 2% 19%  
189 2% 17%  
190 5% 15%  
191 3% 10%  
192 0.6% 7%  
193 2% 7%  
194 2% 5%  
195 0.5% 3%  
196 0.3% 2%  
197 1.0% 2%  
198 0.4% 1.1%  
199 0.1% 0.7%  
200 0.2% 0.6%  
201 0.2% 0.4%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0.1% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.7%  
149 0.2% 99.5%  
150 0.3% 99.3%  
151 0.6% 99.0%  
152 0.7% 98%  
153 0.9% 98%  
154 1.5% 97%  
155 1.4% 95%  
156 2% 94%  
157 2% 92%  
158 3% 90%  
159 4% 87%  
160 5% 83%  
161 4% 78%  
162 4% 74%  
163 6% 71%  
164 6% 65%  
165 6% 59%  
166 7% 52% Median
167 4% 45%  
168 4% 42%  
169 5% 38%  
170 6% 32%  
171 6% 26%  
172 4% 21%  
173 3% 17%  
174 2% 14%  
175 2% 11%  
176 2% 9%  
177 2% 7%  
178 1.5% 5%  
179 1.0% 4%  
180 0.6% 2%  
181 0.5% 2%  
182 0.4% 1.4%  
183 0.4% 1.0%  
184 0.2% 0.6%  
185 0.1% 0.4%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations