Opinion Poll by Kantar, 19–25 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.6–24.5% 21.2–24.9% 20.9–25.3% 20.2–26.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.3% 19.0–21.7% 18.6–22.1% 18.3–22.5% 17.7–23.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.0–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.4–13.8% 10.0–14.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.0–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.4–13.8% 10.0–14.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–9.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.4–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 173 162–184 160–187 157–189 152–195
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 153 143–163 140–166 138–169 133–174
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 104–122 102–124 99–127 95–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 91 82–99 80–101 79–104 75–108
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 91 82–99 80–102 78–104 75–108
Die Linke 69 53 47–60 45–62 44–64 41–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 36 30–41 29–43 28–45 26–48

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.1% 99.6%  
153 0.2% 99.4%  
154 0.3% 99.2%  
155 0.5% 98.9%  
156 0.6% 98%  
157 0.7% 98%  
158 0.8% 97%  
159 1.2% 96%  
160 2% 95%  
161 2% 93%  
162 2% 92%  
163 2% 89%  
164 2% 87%  
165 3% 85%  
166 4% 82%  
167 4% 78%  
168 4% 74%  
169 4% 70%  
170 4% 66%  
171 5% 62%  
172 6% 57%  
173 5% 51% Median
174 5% 46%  
175 4% 41%  
176 4% 37%  
177 5% 33%  
178 5% 29%  
179 3% 24%  
180 3% 21%  
181 2% 17%  
182 2% 15%  
183 2% 13%  
184 2% 10%  
185 2% 8%  
186 1.2% 6%  
187 0.9% 5%  
188 1.0% 4%  
189 0.6% 3%  
190 0.6% 2%  
191 0.4% 2%  
192 0.3% 1.4%  
193 0.3% 1.1%  
194 0.2% 0.8%  
195 0.2% 0.6%  
196 0.1% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.2% 99.7%  
133 0.2% 99.6%  
134 0.2% 99.4%  
135 0.4% 99.1%  
136 0.6% 98.7%  
137 0.6% 98%  
138 0.8% 98%  
139 1.2% 97%  
140 1.2% 96%  
141 2% 94%  
142 2% 92%  
143 2% 90%  
144 3% 88%  
145 2% 85%  
146 4% 83%  
147 4% 79%  
148 5% 75%  
149 3% 70%  
150 6% 67%  
151 4% 61%  
152 4% 57%  
153 6% 52% Median
154 4% 46%  
155 6% 42%  
156 4% 37%  
157 5% 33%  
158 4% 28%  
159 4% 24%  
160 3% 20%  
161 3% 17%  
162 3% 14%  
163 2% 11%  
164 2% 9%  
165 1.4% 7%  
166 1.5% 6%  
167 1.0% 5%  
168 0.9% 4%  
169 0.7% 3%  
170 0.4% 2%  
171 0.4% 2%  
172 0.2% 1.1%  
173 0.3% 0.8%  
174 0.2% 0.6%  
175 0.1% 0.4%  
176 0.1% 0.3%  
177 0.1% 0.2%  
178 0.1% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.6%  
96 0.3% 99.4%  
97 0.4% 99.2%  
98 0.6% 98.8%  
99 0.7% 98%  
100 1.0% 97%  
101 1.3% 96%  
102 2% 95%  
103 2% 93%  
104 2% 91%  
105 3% 88%  
106 4% 85%  
107 4% 81%  
108 5% 77%  
109 4% 72%  
110 6% 68%  
111 5% 61%  
112 6% 57%  
113 6% 51% Median
114 5% 45%  
115 6% 40%  
116 5% 35%  
117 4% 30%  
118 4% 25%  
119 4% 21%  
120 3% 17%  
121 3% 14%  
122 2% 11%  
123 2% 9%  
124 2% 7%  
125 1.0% 5%  
126 1.1% 4%  
127 0.7% 3%  
128 0.6% 2%  
129 0.4% 2%  
130 0.4% 1.1%  
131 0.2% 0.7%  
132 0.2% 0.6%  
133 0.1% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.3% 99.5%  
76 0.4% 99.3%  
77 0.5% 98.9%  
78 0.8% 98%  
79 1.4% 98%  
80 2% 96%  
81 2% 94%  
82 3% 92%  
83 3% 89%  
84 3% 86%  
85 5% 83%  
86 5% 78%  
87 5% 73%  
88 6% 68%  
89 6% 62%  
90 5% 56%  
91 6% 51% Median
92 5% 45%  
93 7% 39%  
94 5% 32% Last Result
95 5% 27%  
96 4% 22%  
97 3% 18%  
98 3% 15%  
99 2% 12%  
100 3% 9%  
101 2% 7%  
102 1.2% 5%  
103 0.9% 4%  
104 0.7% 3%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.5% 1.4%  
107 0.3% 0.9%  
108 0.2% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.5%  
76 0.4% 99.3%  
77 0.6% 98.9%  
78 0.9% 98%  
79 1.2% 97%  
80 1.5% 96% Last Result
81 2% 95%  
82 3% 93%  
83 3% 90%  
84 4% 87%  
85 4% 83%  
86 5% 79%  
87 5% 74%  
88 6% 68%  
89 6% 63%  
90 5% 56%  
91 7% 51% Median
92 5% 44%  
93 7% 39%  
94 4% 32%  
95 5% 28%  
96 5% 23%  
97 4% 19%  
98 4% 15%  
99 2% 11%  
100 2% 9%  
101 2% 7%  
102 2% 5%  
103 1.1% 4%  
104 0.6% 3%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 0.3% 1.2%  
107 0.3% 0.9%  
108 0.3% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.3% 99.7%  
42 0.6% 99.4%  
43 0.9% 98.7%  
44 1.4% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 3% 94%  
47 4% 91%  
48 4% 87%  
49 5% 83%  
50 8% 77%  
51 7% 70%  
52 7% 62%  
53 9% 56% Median
54 7% 47%  
55 8% 39%  
56 5% 31%  
57 5% 26%  
58 6% 20%  
59 3% 14%  
60 3% 11%  
61 3% 8%  
62 1.4% 6%  
63 1.5% 4%  
64 0.9% 3%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.1%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.2% 99.8%  
26 0.5% 99.6%  
27 1.1% 99.1%  
28 1.4% 98%  
29 3% 97%  
30 4% 94%  
31 5% 90%  
32 7% 85%  
33 9% 78%  
34 9% 69%  
35 9% 60%  
36 9% 52% Median
37 9% 43%  
38 8% 34%  
39 6% 25%  
40 6% 20%  
41 5% 14%  
42 3% 9%  
43 2% 6%  
44 2% 4%  
45 0.9% 3%  
46 0.7% 2% Last Result
47 0.4% 1.0%  
48 0.2% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 475 100% 463–486 459–490 456–492 451–497
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 452 100% 440–464 437–468 434–471 428–476
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 392 100% 380–405 376–408 373–411 367–417
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 376 98.9% 364–389 360–393 357–395 351–401
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 370 94% 357–382 354–386 351–389 345–395
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 362 77% 349–374 346–378 343–381 337–387
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 339 6% 327–352 323–355 320–358 314–364
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 301 0% 289–314 285–317 283–320 277–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 285 0% 273–299 270–302 267–304 262–310
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 279 0% 267–291 264–295 261–298 255–304
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 279 0% 267–291 264–295 261–298 255–304
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 203 0% 192–215 189–218 187–221 181–227
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 166 0% 156–176 153–179 150–182 145–187

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0% 99.9%  
447 0% 99.9%  
448 0.1% 99.8%  
449 0.1% 99.7%  
450 0.1% 99.6%  
451 0.2% 99.5%  
452 0.3% 99.3%  
453 0.4% 99.1%  
454 0.4% 98.7%  
455 0.4% 98%  
456 0.6% 98%  
457 0.8% 97%  
458 0.7% 97%  
459 1.0% 96%  
460 1.0% 95%  
461 1.2% 94%  
462 2% 93%  
463 2% 91%  
464 4% 89%  
465 2% 85%  
466 2% 83% Last Result
467 5% 81%  
468 4% 76%  
469 3% 73%  
470 4% 70%  
471 4% 66%  
472 4% 62%  
473 5% 59%  
474 4% 54%  
475 4% 51% Median
476 4% 47%  
477 4% 43%  
478 4% 39%  
479 4% 34%  
480 5% 30%  
481 4% 25%  
482 3% 21%  
483 2% 18%  
484 3% 15%  
485 2% 12%  
486 1.5% 10%  
487 1.3% 9%  
488 1.1% 7%  
489 1.2% 6%  
490 1.2% 5%  
491 1.0% 4%  
492 0.6% 3%  
493 0.5% 2%  
494 0.5% 2%  
495 0.4% 1.3%  
496 0.2% 0.9%  
497 0.2% 0.7%  
498 0.1% 0.5%  
499 0.1% 0.4%  
500 0.1% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.2%  
502 0% 0.2%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0.1% 99.9%  
426 0.1% 99.8%  
427 0.1% 99.7%  
428 0.2% 99.6%  
429 0.2% 99.4%  
430 0.2% 99.1%  
431 0.4% 98.9%  
432 0.3% 98.6%  
433 0.4% 98%  
434 0.5% 98%  
435 0.9% 97%  
436 1.0% 97%  
437 1.0% 96%  
438 2% 95%  
439 1.2% 93%  
440 2% 92%  
441 2% 89%  
442 2% 87%  
443 2% 85%  
444 3% 83%  
445 2% 80%  
446 3% 78%  
447 4% 75%  
448 4% 71%  
449 5% 67%  
450 4% 62%  
451 5% 58%  
452 4% 52%  
453 5% 48% Median
454 2% 44%  
455 4% 41%  
456 3% 37%  
457 3% 34%  
458 4% 31%  
459 4% 27%  
460 4% 24%  
461 4% 20%  
462 3% 16%  
463 2% 13%  
464 1.2% 10%  
465 2% 9%  
466 1.3% 8%  
467 0.9% 6%  
468 1.2% 5%  
469 0.8% 4%  
470 0.6% 3%  
471 0.8% 3%  
472 0.5% 2%  
473 0.4% 1.3%  
474 0.3% 0.9%  
475 0.2% 0.7%  
476 0.1% 0.5%  
477 0.1% 0.4%  
478 0.1% 0.3%  
479 0.1% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.2%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.1% 99.6%  
368 0.2% 99.5%  
369 0.2% 99.3%  
370 0.2% 99.1%  
371 0.4% 98.8%  
372 0.6% 98%  
373 0.5% 98%  
374 0.6% 97%  
375 0.7% 97%  
376 0.9% 96%  
377 1.4% 95%  
378 1.2% 94%  
379 2% 92%  
380 2% 91%  
381 2% 89%  
382 3% 87%  
383 2% 84%  
384 3% 81%  
385 3% 79%  
386 3% 76%  
387 3% 72%  
388 4% 69%  
389 4% 65%  
390 4% 61%  
391 5% 57%  
392 3% 53%  
393 5% 49% Median
394 3% 45%  
395 4% 41%  
396 4% 37%  
397 4% 33%  
398 3% 29%  
399 3% 25%  
400 3% 23%  
401 2% 20%  
402 3% 18%  
403 2% 14%  
404 2% 12%  
405 2% 10%  
406 2% 9%  
407 2% 7%  
408 1.3% 5%  
409 0.7% 4%  
410 0.6% 4%  
411 0.7% 3%  
412 0.5% 2%  
413 0.5% 2%  
414 0.2% 1.3%  
415 0.2% 1.0%  
416 0.2% 0.8%  
417 0.2% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.2% 99.7%  
352 0.1% 99.5%  
353 0.2% 99.3%  
354 0.2% 99.1%  
355 0.3% 98.9% Majority
356 0.6% 98.6%  
357 0.9% 98%  
358 0.4% 97%  
359 0.8% 97%  
360 1.0% 96%  
361 1.2% 95%  
362 2% 94%  
363 1.5% 92%  
364 1.3% 91%  
365 2% 89%  
366 2% 88%  
367 3% 85%  
368 3% 83%  
369 2% 80%  
370 2% 77%  
371 4% 75%  
372 6% 71%  
373 3% 64%  
374 4% 61%  
375 4% 58%  
376 5% 54%  
377 3% 49% Median
378 5% 46%  
379 4% 41%  
380 5% 37%  
381 3% 32%  
382 4% 29%  
383 3% 25%  
384 3% 22%  
385 2% 19%  
386 2% 17%  
387 3% 15%  
388 1.4% 12%  
389 2% 11%  
390 1.4% 9%  
391 1.5% 8%  
392 0.8% 6%  
393 2% 5%  
394 0.7% 4%  
395 0.8% 3%  
396 0.4% 2%  
397 0.4% 2%  
398 0.3% 1.4%  
399 0.3% 1.1%  
400 0.2% 0.8%  
401 0.2% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.4%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.2% 99.6%  
346 0.2% 99.4%  
347 0.3% 99.2%  
348 0.3% 99.0%  
349 0.3% 98.7%  
350 0.5% 98%  
351 0.4% 98%  
352 1.1% 97%  
353 0.7% 96%  
354 1.2% 96%  
355 0.9% 94% Majority
356 2% 94%  
357 2% 92%  
358 2% 90%  
359 1.3% 88%  
360 2% 87%  
361 2% 84%  
362 3% 82%  
363 4% 79%  
364 4% 75%  
365 3% 71%  
366 4% 68%  
367 3% 64%  
368 4% 61%  
369 4% 57%  
370 3% 53%  
371 4% 50% Median
372 6% 46%  
373 4% 40%  
374 4% 35%  
375 3% 31%  
376 3% 28%  
377 3% 25%  
378 3% 22%  
379 2% 19%  
380 3% 17%  
381 3% 14%  
382 2% 11%  
383 2% 10%  
384 1.4% 8%  
385 1.2% 6%  
386 0.7% 5%  
387 1.0% 5%  
388 0.5% 4%  
389 0.5% 3%  
390 0.6% 2%  
391 0.6% 2%  
392 0.3% 1.3%  
393 0.3% 1.0%  
394 0.2% 0.8%  
395 0.2% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0.1% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.8%  
335 0.1% 99.7%  
336 0.1% 99.6%  
337 0.1% 99.5%  
338 0.2% 99.4%  
339 0.3% 99.2%  
340 0.3% 98.9%  
341 0.4% 98.6%  
342 0.5% 98%  
343 0.7% 98%  
344 0.6% 97%  
345 1.0% 96%  
346 0.9% 95%  
347 1.2% 94%  
348 2% 93%  
349 2% 92%  
350 2% 90%  
351 3% 88%  
352 2% 85%  
353 3% 83%  
354 3% 80%  
355 3% 77% Majority
356 4% 74%  
357 4% 70%  
358 4% 66%  
359 4% 63%  
360 4% 58%  
361 4% 54%  
362 4% 50% Median
363 4% 46%  
364 4% 42%  
365 3% 39%  
366 3% 35%  
367 4% 32%  
368 3% 28%  
369 4% 24%  
370 2% 20%  
371 2% 18%  
372 3% 16%  
373 2% 13%  
374 2% 11%  
375 2% 9%  
376 1.3% 7%  
377 1.0% 6%  
378 1.2% 5%  
379 0.6% 4%  
380 0.6% 3%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.6% 2%  
383 0.4% 2%  
384 0.3% 1.2%  
385 0.2% 0.9%  
386 0.2% 0.7%  
387 0.1% 0.5%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7%  
314 0.2% 99.6%  
315 0.2% 99.5%  
316 0.3% 99.2%  
317 0.3% 99.0%  
318 0.6% 98.7%  
319 0.6% 98%  
320 0.5% 98%  
321 0.5% 97%  
322 1.0% 96%  
323 0.7% 95%  
324 1.2% 95%  
325 1.4% 94%  
326 2% 92%  
327 2% 90%  
328 3% 89%  
329 3% 86%  
330 2% 83%  
331 3% 81%  
332 3% 78%  
333 3% 75%  
334 3% 72%  
335 4% 69%  
336 4% 65%  
337 6% 60%  
338 4% 54%  
339 3% 50% Median
340 4% 47%  
341 4% 43%  
342 3% 39%  
343 4% 36%  
344 3% 32%  
345 4% 29%  
346 4% 25%  
347 3% 21%  
348 2% 18%  
349 2% 16%  
350 1.3% 13%  
351 2% 12%  
352 2% 10%  
353 2% 8%  
354 0.9% 6%  
355 1.2% 6% Majority
356 0.7% 4%  
357 1.1% 4%  
358 0.4% 3%  
359 0.5% 2%  
360 0.3% 2%  
361 0.3% 1.3%  
362 0.3% 1.0%  
363 0.2% 0.8%  
364 0.2% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0.2% 99.4%  
279 0.2% 99.2%  
280 0.3% 99.0%  
281 0.4% 98.7%  
282 0.6% 98%  
283 0.7% 98%  
284 0.9% 97%  
285 1.2% 96%  
286 0.9% 95%  
287 1.2% 94%  
288 1.3% 93%  
289 2% 92%  
290 3% 90%  
291 2% 87%  
292 3% 85%  
293 3% 82%  
294 3% 80%  
295 4% 76%  
296 3% 73%  
297 4% 70%  
298 4% 66%  
299 4% 63%  
300 4% 58%  
301 5% 54%  
302 4% 50% Median
303 4% 46%  
304 3% 42%  
305 4% 39%  
306 5% 35%  
307 3% 31%  
308 5% 27%  
309 3% 23%  
310 2% 19%  
311 3% 17%  
312 2% 14%  
313 2% 13%  
314 2% 11%  
315 2% 9%  
316 1.3% 7%  
317 1.2% 6%  
318 0.9% 5%  
319 0.8% 4%  
320 0.7% 3%  
321 0.5% 2%  
322 0.5% 2%  
323 0.3% 1.4%  
324 0.2% 1.1%  
325 0.3% 0.9%  
326 0.1% 0.6%  
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.2% 99.6%  
263 0.2% 99.4%  
264 0.3% 99.1%  
265 0.4% 98.9%  
266 0.7% 98%  
267 0.5% 98%  
268 1.4% 97%  
269 0.8% 96%  
270 0.9% 95%  
271 1.3% 94%  
272 1.2% 93%  
273 2% 92%  
274 1.5% 90%  
275 2% 88%  
276 2% 86%  
277 2% 84%  
278 2% 82%  
279 5% 79%  
280 2% 75%  
281 5% 72%  
282 3% 67%  
283 4% 64%  
284 5% 60%  
285 5% 55%  
286 5% 50% Median
287 4% 45%  
288 4% 40%  
289 4% 37%  
290 3% 32%  
291 3% 29%  
292 3% 26%  
293 3% 22%  
294 2% 20%  
295 3% 18%  
296 2% 16%  
297 2% 14%  
298 2% 12%  
299 2% 10%  
300 1.3% 8%  
301 2% 7%  
302 1.3% 5%  
303 1.0% 4%  
304 0.6% 3%  
305 0.4% 2%  
306 0.5% 2%  
307 0.4% 1.4%  
308 0.3% 1.0%  
309 0.2% 0.7%  
310 0.1% 0.6%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.3%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.2% 99.6%  
256 0.2% 99.4%  
257 0.2% 99.3%  
258 0.3% 99.0%  
259 0.4% 98.7%  
260 0.6% 98%  
261 0.6% 98%  
262 0.7% 97%  
263 1.0% 96%  
264 1.3% 95%  
265 1.2% 94%  
266 2% 93%  
267 2% 91%  
268 2% 89%  
269 2% 88%  
270 3% 85%  
271 2% 82%  
272 4% 80%  
273 3% 76%  
274 4% 73%  
275 4% 70%  
276 4% 66%  
277 6% 62%  
278 2% 57%  
279 4% 54%  
280 5% 50% Median
281 3% 44%  
282 5% 42%  
283 3% 37%  
284 6% 34%  
285 3% 28%  
286 3% 25%  
287 4% 23%  
288 1.4% 18%  
289 3% 17%  
290 2% 13%  
291 2% 12%  
292 2% 10%  
293 1.4% 8%  
294 1.1% 7%  
295 1.0% 6%  
296 1.0% 5%  
297 0.7% 4%  
298 0.7% 3%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0.4% 2%  
301 0.4% 1.4%  
302 0.2% 1.0%  
303 0.2% 0.8%  
304 0.2% 0.6%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0.1% 0.3%  
307 0.1% 0.2%  
308 0.1% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.6%  
256 0.3% 99.5%  
257 0.2% 99.2%  
258 0.4% 99.0%  
259 0.4% 98.6%  
260 0.5% 98%  
261 0.6% 98%  
262 0.7% 97%  
263 1.1% 96%  
264 1.2% 95%  
265 1.2% 94%  
266 1.3% 93%  
267 2% 92%  
268 2% 90%  
269 3% 88%  
270 2% 85%  
271 3% 83%  
272 4% 80%  
273 4% 77%  
274 4% 73%  
275 3% 69%  
276 5% 66%  
277 5% 62%  
278 4% 57%  
279 4% 53%  
280 4% 49% Median
281 4% 45%  
282 4% 41%  
283 4% 38%  
284 3% 34%  
285 4% 31%  
286 3% 27%  
287 3% 24%  
288 4% 21%  
289 3% 18%  
290 3% 15%  
291 2% 12%  
292 1.5% 10%  
293 2% 8%  
294 1.2% 7%  
295 1.3% 5%  
296 0.7% 4%  
297 0.7% 3%  
298 0.5% 3%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0.5% 2%  
301 0.3% 1.3%  
302 0.2% 1.0%  
303 0.2% 0.8%  
304 0.2% 0.6%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0.1% 0.3%  
307 0.1% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0.1% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.8%  
180 0.1% 99.8%  
181 0.2% 99.7%  
182 0.2% 99.5%  
183 0.3% 99.3%  
184 0.3% 98.9%  
185 0.5% 98.6%  
186 0.5% 98%  
187 0.7% 98%  
188 0.8% 97%  
189 1.3% 96%  
190 1.2% 95%  
191 2% 94%  
192 2% 92%  
193 3% 89%  
194 3% 87%  
195 3% 84%  
196 3% 82%  
197 3% 79%  
198 4% 76%  
199 5% 72%  
200 4% 67%  
201 5% 63%  
202 3% 58%  
203 5% 55%  
204 5% 50% Median
205 5% 45%  
206 4% 41%  
207 4% 37%  
208 5% 33%  
209 3% 28%  
210 4% 25%  
211 3% 21%  
212 2% 18%  
213 3% 15%  
214 2% 12%  
215 2% 11%  
216 2% 9%  
217 1.4% 7%  
218 1.3% 6%  
219 0.7% 4%  
220 0.9% 4%  
221 0.6% 3%  
222 0.5% 2%  
223 0.4% 2%  
224 0.2% 1.2%  
225 0.3% 0.9%  
226 0.1% 0.7%  
227 0.2% 0.5%  
228 0.1% 0.4%  
229 0% 0.2%  
230 0.1% 0.2%  
231 0.1% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1% Last Result
234 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.1% 99.7%  
145 0.1% 99.6%  
146 0.2% 99.5%  
147 0.2% 99.3%  
148 0.4% 99.0%  
149 0.5% 98.7%  
150 0.8% 98%  
151 1.0% 97%  
152 1.2% 96%  
153 1.1% 95%  
154 2% 94%  
155 2% 92%  
156 2% 90%  
157 3% 88%  
158 3% 85%  
159 3% 82%  
160 3% 79%  
161 4% 76%  
162 5% 72%  
163 4% 67%  
164 5% 62%  
165 7% 58%  
166 4% 51% Median
167 5% 47%  
168 4% 42%  
169 5% 38%  
170 4% 33%  
171 3% 29%  
172 5% 26%  
173 4% 21%  
174 2% 17%  
175 3% 15%  
176 2% 12%  
177 2% 10%  
178 2% 8%  
179 2% 6%  
180 0.9% 5%  
181 0.9% 4%  
182 0.8% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.3%  
186 0.3% 1.0%  
187 0.2% 0.7%  
188 0.1% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations