Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 4–7 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.0% 18.8–22.3% 18.3–22.9%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.0% 18.8–22.3% 18.3–22.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.5% 12.6–14.5% 12.3–14.8% 12.1–15.1% 11.6–15.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 156 147–164 143–166 141–167 138–173
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 154 145–163 144–166 141–168 137–172
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 116 108–125 107–127 105–129 101–133
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 102 95–109 92–112 91–114 87–117
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 76–90 75–92 73–93 70–97
Die Linke 69 53 47–58 46–60 45–62 43–65
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 46 40–51 39–52 38–54 36–56

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.8%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.2% 99.7%  
139 0.5% 99.5%  
140 1.3% 99.0%  
141 1.3% 98%  
142 1.2% 96%  
143 1.2% 95%  
144 0.4% 94%  
145 0.7% 94%  
146 1.3% 93%  
147 4% 92%  
148 6% 88%  
149 7% 81%  
150 9% 74%  
151 4% 65%  
152 3% 61%  
153 1.3% 58%  
154 2% 57%  
155 4% 55%  
156 6% 51% Median
157 11% 44%  
158 9% 33%  
159 6% 24%  
160 4% 18%  
161 1.1% 14%  
162 0.7% 13%  
163 0.8% 12%  
164 2% 11%  
165 2% 9%  
166 2% 7%  
167 2% 4%  
168 1.0% 2%  
169 0.5% 1.3%  
170 0.1% 0.8%  
171 0.1% 0.7%  
172 0.1% 0.7%  
173 0.2% 0.6%  
174 0.2% 0.4%  
175 0.1% 0.3%  
176 0.1% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.3% 99.6%  
138 0.3% 99.4%  
139 0.5% 99.1%  
140 0.6% 98.6%  
141 0.6% 98%  
142 0.7% 97%  
143 1.0% 97%  
144 3% 96%  
145 4% 92%  
146 4% 89%  
147 2% 85%  
148 3% 83%  
149 3% 80%  
150 7% 77%  
151 6% 71%  
152 5% 65%  
153 8% 61%  
154 7% 52% Median
155 6% 45%  
156 3% 39%  
157 3% 36%  
158 3% 34%  
159 7% 31%  
160 7% 24%  
161 3% 17%  
162 3% 14%  
163 3% 11%  
164 1.3% 8%  
165 1.3% 7%  
166 1.1% 5%  
167 0.9% 4%  
168 1.0% 3%  
169 1.3% 2%  
170 0.4% 1.1%  
171 0.2% 0.8%  
172 0.1% 0.6%  
173 0.1% 0.5%  
174 0.1% 0.4%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.3% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.5%  
103 0.5% 99.2%  
104 0.7% 98.7%  
105 0.8% 98%  
106 1.4% 97%  
107 2% 96%  
108 4% 94%  
109 3% 90%  
110 3% 86%  
111 5% 83%  
112 6% 78%  
113 6% 72%  
114 6% 67%  
115 6% 60%  
116 5% 54% Median
117 5% 49%  
118 5% 44%  
119 7% 39%  
120 5% 32%  
121 5% 27%  
122 4% 22%  
123 4% 18%  
124 3% 15%  
125 3% 12%  
126 3% 9%  
127 2% 6%  
128 1.2% 4%  
129 0.8% 3%  
130 0.7% 2%  
131 0.5% 1.5%  
132 0.4% 1.0%  
133 0.3% 0.6%  
134 0.2% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.7%  
88 0.3% 99.5%  
89 0.5% 99.2%  
90 1.0% 98.7%  
91 1.4% 98%  
92 2% 96%  
93 2% 95%  
94 2% 92%  
95 3% 91%  
96 5% 87%  
97 5% 82%  
98 4% 77%  
99 7% 73%  
100 7% 66%  
101 7% 59%  
102 6% 51% Median
103 5% 45%  
104 5% 40%  
105 7% 35%  
106 5% 28%  
107 5% 23%  
108 4% 18%  
109 5% 14%  
110 3% 10%  
111 2% 7%  
112 1.5% 5%  
113 0.9% 4%  
114 0.8% 3%  
115 0.7% 2%  
116 0.4% 1.1%  
117 0.2% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 0.6% 99.4%  
72 0.7% 98.8%  
73 0.8% 98%  
74 1.2% 97%  
75 3% 96%  
76 4% 93%  
77 4% 89%  
78 3% 85%  
79 4% 82%  
80 9% 78%  
81 9% 69%  
82 7% 59%  
83 6% 52% Median
84 5% 46%  
85 7% 41%  
86 10% 34%  
87 7% 25%  
88 4% 18%  
89 2% 14%  
90 3% 12%  
91 3% 9%  
92 2% 6%  
93 1.3% 4%  
94 0.6% 2% Last Result
95 0.4% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.3%  
97 0.4% 0.8%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.5%  
44 1.0% 99.0%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 94%  
48 4% 90%  
49 6% 86%  
50 9% 79%  
51 9% 70%  
52 9% 61%  
53 9% 52% Median
54 7% 44%  
55 7% 36%  
56 8% 29%  
57 6% 21%  
58 5% 15%  
59 3% 10%  
60 2% 7%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.3% 3%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 0.4% 99.6%  
37 1.1% 99.2%  
38 1.5% 98%  
39 3% 97%  
40 4% 93%  
41 6% 89%  
42 7% 83%  
43 8% 77%  
44 8% 69%  
45 10% 61%  
46 8% 50% Last Result, Median
47 10% 42%  
48 9% 32%  
49 7% 24%  
50 6% 17%  
51 4% 11%  
52 3% 8%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.2% 3%  
55 0.7% 2%  
56 0.5% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 471 100% 461–481 458–484 456–486 451–491
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 456 100% 446–467 443–470 440–472 436–476
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 419 100% 408–429 405–432 403–435 398–439
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 385 100% 374–396 371–398 369–400 364–406
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 373 98.8% 363–383 360–386 357–389 352–394
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 354 50% 344–365 341–368 339–370 333–375
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 324 0% 313–335 311–338 309–340 303–345
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 316 0% 306–328 303–331 300–333 296–338
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 302 0% 292–312 288–315 286–318 281–323
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 283 0% 273–293 270–296 267–299 263–304
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 272 0% 261–281 258–284 256–287 251–292
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 219 0% 209–228 207–231 204–234 199–238
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 169 0% 160–179 158–182 156–184 152–188

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 99.9%  
447 0.1% 99.9%  
448 0.1% 99.9%  
449 0.1% 99.8%  
450 0.2% 99.7%  
451 0.2% 99.5%  
452 0.2% 99.3%  
453 0.3% 99.1%  
454 0.6% 98.8%  
455 0.5% 98%  
456 0.9% 98%  
457 1.1% 97%  
458 0.9% 96%  
459 2% 95%  
460 2% 93%  
461 2% 91%  
462 3% 89%  
463 4% 86%  
464 4% 83%  
465 3% 78%  
466 5% 75% Last Result
467 4% 71%  
468 5% 67%  
469 5% 62%  
470 4% 58%  
471 7% 53%  
472 4% 46% Median
473 4% 42%  
474 6% 37%  
475 3% 31%  
476 4% 28%  
477 5% 24%  
478 2% 19%  
479 3% 17%  
480 3% 14%  
481 2% 11%  
482 2% 9%  
483 2% 7%  
484 0.9% 5%  
485 0.9% 4%  
486 1.0% 3%  
487 0.5% 2%  
488 0.4% 2%  
489 0.5% 1.3%  
490 0.2% 0.8%  
491 0.2% 0.6%  
492 0.2% 0.5%  
493 0.1% 0.2%  
494 0.1% 0.2%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.9%  
434 0.1% 99.8%  
435 0.1% 99.7%  
436 0.2% 99.5%  
437 0.2% 99.3%  
438 0.6% 99.1%  
439 0.4% 98%  
440 0.6% 98%  
441 0.8% 97%  
442 1.1% 97%  
443 1.1% 96%  
444 2% 94%  
445 2% 93%  
446 3% 91%  
447 2% 89%  
448 3% 86%  
449 3% 83%  
450 3% 80%  
451 4% 77%  
452 4% 73%  
453 5% 69%  
454 5% 64%  
455 6% 59%  
456 4% 54%  
457 4% 50%  
458 6% 46% Median
459 5% 40%  
460 6% 35%  
461 5% 30%  
462 4% 25%  
463 3% 21%  
464 3% 18%  
465 3% 15%  
466 2% 12%  
467 2% 10%  
468 2% 8%  
469 1.3% 6%  
470 1.3% 5%  
471 1.0% 4%  
472 0.8% 3%  
473 0.5% 2%  
474 0.4% 1.3%  
475 0.3% 0.9%  
476 0.2% 0.6%  
477 0.2% 0.4%  
478 0.1% 0.3%  
479 0.1% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0.1% 99.9%  
395 0.1% 99.8%  
396 0.1% 99.8%  
397 0.1% 99.7%  
398 0.3% 99.5%  
399 0.3% 99.2%  
400 0.2% 99.0%  
401 0.5% 98.7%  
402 0.6% 98%  
403 0.7% 98%  
404 1.2% 97%  
405 0.9% 96%  
406 2% 95%  
407 2% 92%  
408 2% 90%  
409 1.3% 88%  
410 3% 87%  
411 3% 84%  
412 5% 81%  
413 4% 76%  
414 5% 72%  
415 3% 67%  
416 5% 64%  
417 4% 59%  
418 3% 56% Median
419 7% 52%  
420 4% 46%  
421 6% 41%  
422 6% 36%  
423 3% 30%  
424 4% 26%  
425 3% 22%  
426 3% 20%  
427 3% 16%  
428 3% 13%  
429 2% 10%  
430 2% 8%  
431 1.1% 6%  
432 1.3% 5%  
433 0.8% 4%  
434 0.6% 3%  
435 0.8% 3%  
436 0.5% 2%  
437 0.4% 1.2%  
438 0.2% 0.8%  
439 0.1% 0.6%  
440 0.1% 0.4%  
441 0.1% 0.3%  
442 0.1% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.2% 99.6%  
365 0.3% 99.5%  
366 0.2% 99.2%  
367 0.4% 98.9%  
368 0.6% 98.5%  
369 0.9% 98%  
370 1.0% 97%  
371 2% 96%  
372 1.4% 94%  
373 2% 93%  
374 2% 92%  
375 2% 89%  
376 2% 88%  
377 2% 86%  
378 3% 84%  
379 5% 81%  
380 4% 76%  
381 6% 72%  
382 6% 66%  
383 4% 60%  
384 6% 56%  
385 4% 50% Median
386 5% 46%  
387 5% 41%  
388 4% 37%  
389 4% 32%  
390 4% 29%  
391 3% 25%  
392 3% 21%  
393 3% 19%  
394 2% 16%  
395 2% 14%  
396 3% 11%  
397 2% 9%  
398 2% 7%  
399 1.2% 5%  
400 1.2% 4%  
401 0.7% 2%  
402 0.4% 2%  
403 0.3% 1.3%  
404 0.3% 1.0%  
405 0.2% 0.7%  
406 0.1% 0.5%  
407 0.1% 0.4%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0.1% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.2% 99.6%  
353 0.3% 99.4%  
354 0.3% 99.0%  
355 0.3% 98.8% Majority
356 0.4% 98%  
357 0.7% 98%  
358 1.1% 97%  
359 1.2% 96%  
360 2% 95%  
361 1.5% 93%  
362 2% 92%  
363 2% 90%  
364 3% 89%  
365 4% 86%  
366 4% 82%  
367 3% 78%  
368 4% 75%  
369 5% 72%  
370 5% 67%  
371 5% 61%  
372 4% 56%  
373 4% 52%  
374 5% 48% Median
375 4% 44%  
376 6% 39%  
377 5% 33%  
378 3% 28%  
379 3% 25%  
380 3% 22%  
381 4% 19%  
382 3% 15%  
383 4% 13%  
384 2% 9%  
385 1.1% 7%  
386 1.2% 6%  
387 1.1% 5%  
388 1.1% 4%  
389 1.0% 3%  
390 0.4% 2%  
391 0.3% 1.4%  
392 0.2% 1.1%  
393 0.2% 0.9%  
394 0.2% 0.6%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.2% 99.7%  
334 0.2% 99.5%  
335 0.2% 99.3%  
336 0.5% 99.1%  
337 0.5% 98.6%  
338 0.5% 98%  
339 1.0% 98%  
340 1.0% 97%  
341 1.1% 96%  
342 2% 95%  
343 2% 93%  
344 2% 91%  
345 3% 89%  
346 3% 86%  
347 3% 83%  
348 4% 80%  
349 3% 76%  
350 4% 73%  
351 4% 69%  
352 6% 65%  
353 4% 58%  
354 4% 54%  
355 6% 50% Majority
356 5% 44% Median
357 4% 39%  
358 5% 34%  
359 3% 30%  
360 3% 26%  
361 4% 23%  
362 3% 19%  
363 3% 15%  
364 2% 13%  
365 2% 11%  
366 1.4% 9%  
367 2% 7%  
368 0.9% 5%  
369 1.1% 4%  
370 0.9% 3%  
371 0.4% 2%  
372 0.5% 2%  
373 0.4% 1.3%  
374 0.3% 0.9%  
375 0.2% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.2% 99.5%  
305 0.3% 99.3%  
306 0.3% 99.0%  
307 0.4% 98.7%  
308 0.7% 98%  
309 1.2% 98%  
310 1.2% 96%  
311 2% 95%  
312 2% 93%  
313 3% 91%  
314 2% 89%  
315 2% 86%  
316 3% 84%  
317 3% 81%  
318 3% 79%  
319 4% 75%  
320 4% 71%  
321 4% 68%  
322 5% 63%  
323 5% 59%  
324 4% 54%  
325 6% 50% Median
326 4% 44%  
327 6% 40%  
328 6% 34%  
329 4% 28%  
330 5% 24%  
331 3% 19%  
332 2% 16%  
333 2% 14%  
334 2% 12%  
335 2% 11%  
336 2% 8%  
337 1.4% 7%  
338 2% 6%  
339 1.0% 4%  
340 0.9% 3%  
341 0.6% 2%  
342 0.4% 1.5%  
343 0.2% 1.1%  
344 0.3% 0.8%  
345 0.2% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.6%  
297 0.4% 99.4%  
298 0.3% 99.1%  
299 0.4% 98.7%  
300 0.8% 98%  
301 1.0% 97%  
302 0.9% 96%  
303 1.4% 96%  
304 2% 94%  
305 3% 93%  
306 2% 90%  
307 3% 88%  
308 3% 85%  
309 3% 82%  
310 4% 78%  
311 3% 75%  
312 4% 72%  
313 4% 68%  
314 5% 63%  
315 4% 59%  
316 6% 54% Median
317 4% 48%  
318 4% 44%  
319 4% 40%  
320 4% 36%  
321 4% 32%  
322 4% 28%  
323 4% 24%  
324 2% 20%  
325 3% 18%  
326 3% 15%  
327 2% 12%  
328 2% 10%  
329 1.2% 8%  
330 2% 7%  
331 1.3% 5%  
332 1.0% 4%  
333 0.7% 3%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.5% 2%  
336 0.3% 1.1%  
337 0.2% 0.8%  
338 0.2% 0.6%  
339 0.2% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.2% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.4% 99.4%  
283 0.3% 99.1%  
284 0.5% 98.8%  
285 0.5% 98%  
286 0.9% 98%  
287 0.8% 97%  
288 1.5% 96%  
289 1.1% 95%  
290 2% 94%  
291 1.3% 92%  
292 3% 90%  
293 2% 87%  
294 3% 85%  
295 4% 82%  
296 3% 78%  
297 5% 75%  
298 4% 70%  
299 4% 66%  
300 6% 62%  
301 4% 56%  
302 6% 52% Median
303 4% 46%  
304 5% 42%  
305 5% 37%  
306 4% 32%  
307 3% 28%  
308 4% 25%  
309 3% 21%  
310 4% 18%  
311 2% 14%  
312 3% 12%  
313 1.4% 9%  
314 2% 8%  
315 1.3% 6%  
316 0.9% 5%  
317 0.8% 4%  
318 0.9% 3%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.6% 2%  
321 0.1% 1.0%  
322 0.3% 0.8%  
323 0.1% 0.6%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.2% 99.6%  
264 0.4% 99.3%  
265 0.3% 99.0%  
266 0.7% 98.7%  
267 0.6% 98%  
268 0.9% 97%  
269 1.3% 97%  
270 1.1% 95%  
271 1.4% 94%  
272 2% 93%  
273 1.4% 90%  
274 3% 89%  
275 3% 86%  
276 3% 83%  
277 2% 79%  
278 6% 77%  
279 4% 71%  
280 5% 67%  
281 5% 62%  
282 6% 58%  
283 5% 52% Median
284 5% 46%  
285 4% 41%  
286 5% 37%  
287 4% 32%  
288 3% 28%  
289 4% 25%  
290 3% 20%  
291 3% 18%  
292 2% 15%  
293 3% 12%  
294 2% 10%  
295 2% 8%  
296 1.3% 6%  
297 1.0% 5%  
298 1.1% 4%  
299 0.8% 3%  
300 0.5% 2%  
301 0.4% 1.3%  
302 0.2% 1.0%  
303 0.2% 0.7%  
304 0.2% 0.5%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0.1% 0.3%  
307 0.1% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.2% 99.5%  
252 0.1% 99.3%  
253 0.5% 99.2%  
254 0.7% 98.8%  
255 0.3% 98%  
256 0.8% 98%  
257 1.5% 97%  
258 0.7% 96%  
259 2% 95%  
260 3% 93%  
261 2% 90%  
262 4% 88%  
263 3% 84%  
264 2% 81%  
265 3% 79%  
266 6% 76%  
267 3% 71%  
268 4% 67%  
269 7% 63%  
270 3% 56%  
271 3% 53%  
272 8% 50% Median
273 4% 42%  
274 4% 39%  
275 7% 35%  
276 4% 28%  
277 2% 24%  
278 5% 23%  
279 3% 18%  
280 3% 15%  
281 3% 12%  
282 2% 8%  
283 1.0% 7%  
284 1.1% 6%  
285 1.0% 4%  
286 0.5% 3%  
287 1.0% 3%  
288 0.6% 2%  
289 0.2% 1.3%  
290 0.3% 1.1%  
291 0.2% 0.8%  
292 0.1% 0.6%  
293 0.2% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.9%  
198 0.1% 99.8%  
199 0.2% 99.7%  
200 0.3% 99.5%  
201 0.4% 99.2%  
202 0.4% 98.8%  
203 0.6% 98%  
204 0.8% 98%  
205 0.9% 97%  
206 1.0% 96%  
207 2% 95%  
208 2% 93%  
209 2% 91%  
210 3% 89%  
211 3% 86%  
212 5% 83%  
213 4% 78%  
214 5% 74%  
215 5% 69%  
216 5% 64%  
217 5% 59%  
218 3% 54% Median
219 5% 51%  
220 5% 46%  
221 5% 41%  
222 5% 36%  
223 4% 31%  
224 5% 27%  
225 3% 22%  
226 5% 19%  
227 3% 14%  
228 2% 11%  
229 2% 9%  
230 1.4% 7%  
231 1.1% 5%  
232 0.8% 4%  
233 0.7% 3% Last Result
234 0.7% 3%  
235 0.5% 2%  
236 0.4% 1.4%  
237 0.3% 1.0%  
238 0.3% 0.7%  
239 0.1% 0.4%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0.1% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.2% 99.7%  
152 0.3% 99.6%  
153 0.3% 99.3%  
154 0.3% 98.9%  
155 0.8% 98.6%  
156 0.6% 98%  
157 2% 97%  
158 0.9% 96%  
159 2% 95%  
160 2% 92%  
161 3% 90%  
162 2% 87%  
163 5% 84%  
164 3% 79%  
165 5% 76%  
166 3% 70%  
167 6% 67%  
168 4% 61%  
169 7% 57% Median
170 6% 50%  
171 6% 44%  
172 4% 38%  
173 6% 34%  
174 4% 28%  
175 4% 24%  
176 3% 20%  
177 3% 17%  
178 3% 14%  
179 2% 11%  
180 2% 9%  
181 1.2% 6%  
182 2% 5%  
183 0.7% 3%  
184 0.8% 3%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.5% 1.4%  
187 0.2% 0.9%  
188 0.3% 0.7%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0% 0.2%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations