Opinion Poll by Kantar, 2–8 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.1% 19.8–22.6% 19.4–23.0% 19.1–23.3% 18.4–24.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.6–22.4% 19.3–22.8% 18.9–23.2% 18.3–23.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.4–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.6–18.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.6–14.6% 11.4–14.9% 10.9–15.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.4% 9.4–12.7% 9.0–13.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 5.9–8.2% 5.7–8.4% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.2–5.7% 4.0–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 159 149–170 146–173 144–175 139–181
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 158 148–168 145–172 143–174 138–179
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 111–130 109–133 107–135 103–140
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 98 90–107 88–110 86–112 82–116
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 75–91 73–93 71–96 68–100
Die Linke 69 53 46–59 45–61 43–63 40–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 37 32–43 30–44 29–46 27–49

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.1% 99.7%  
139 0.2% 99.6%  
140 0.3% 99.4%  
141 0.4% 99.1%  
142 0.5% 98.7%  
143 0.5% 98%  
144 0.8% 98%  
145 0.8% 97%  
146 2% 96%  
147 2% 94%  
148 2% 93%  
149 3% 91%  
150 2% 88%  
151 3% 86%  
152 3% 83%  
153 4% 80%  
154 4% 76%  
155 4% 72%  
156 6% 68%  
157 5% 62%  
158 5% 57%  
159 4% 51% Median
160 5% 48%  
161 4% 43%  
162 5% 38%  
163 4% 34%  
164 5% 30%  
165 3% 25%  
166 3% 21%  
167 3% 18%  
168 2% 15%  
169 2% 13%  
170 2% 11%  
171 2% 9%  
172 2% 7%  
173 1.3% 5%  
174 0.8% 4%  
175 0.8% 3%  
176 0.5% 2%  
177 0.3% 2%  
178 0.4% 1.4%  
179 0.2% 1.0%  
180 0.2% 0.8%  
181 0.2% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.4%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.2% 99.7%  
138 0.2% 99.6%  
139 0.3% 99.4%  
140 0.3% 99.1%  
141 0.6% 98.8%  
142 0.6% 98%  
143 0.9% 98%  
144 0.9% 97%  
145 1.3% 96%  
146 2% 94%  
147 2% 93%  
148 3% 91%  
149 2% 88%  
150 4% 86%  
151 3% 82%  
152 4% 79%  
153 4% 75%  
154 5% 71%  
155 4% 66%  
156 4% 62%  
157 6% 58%  
158 4% 52% Median
159 5% 47%  
160 5% 42%  
161 5% 38%  
162 4% 33%  
163 4% 29%  
164 4% 25%  
165 3% 21%  
166 3% 18%  
167 3% 15%  
168 2% 12%  
169 2% 10%  
170 2% 8%  
171 1.2% 6%  
172 1.3% 5%  
173 0.8% 4%  
174 0.7% 3%  
175 0.7% 2%  
176 0.4% 2%  
177 0.3% 1.2%  
178 0.3% 1.0%  
179 0.2% 0.6%  
180 0.1% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.3% 99.5%  
104 0.4% 99.2%  
105 0.3% 98.8%  
106 0.9% 98%  
107 1.1% 98%  
108 1.3% 96%  
109 1.2% 95%  
110 2% 94%  
111 3% 92%  
112 3% 89%  
113 2% 86%  
114 4% 84%  
115 6% 81%  
116 3% 74%  
117 4% 71%  
118 5% 67%  
119 8% 62%  
120 4% 54% Median
121 4% 50%  
122 7% 46%  
123 5% 40%  
124 5% 35%  
125 3% 30%  
126 5% 26%  
127 4% 21%  
128 2% 17%  
129 3% 15%  
130 4% 12%  
131 2% 9%  
132 1.2% 7%  
133 1.4% 6%  
134 1.4% 4%  
135 0.7% 3%  
136 0.4% 2%  
137 0.4% 2%  
138 0.6% 1.3%  
139 0.2% 0.7%  
140 0.1% 0.5%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.7%  
82 0.2% 99.6%  
83 0.5% 99.4%  
84 0.5% 98.9%  
85 0.7% 98%  
86 1.0% 98%  
87 1.5% 97%  
88 2% 95%  
89 2% 93%  
90 2% 91%  
91 3% 88%  
92 4% 85%  
93 6% 81%  
94 4% 76%  
95 6% 71%  
96 6% 65%  
97 6% 60%  
98 6% 54% Median
99 6% 48%  
100 5% 43%  
101 6% 38%  
102 5% 31%  
103 5% 27%  
104 4% 22%  
105 4% 18%  
106 4% 15%  
107 2% 11%  
108 2% 9%  
109 2% 7%  
110 1.2% 5%  
111 1.0% 4%  
112 0.6% 3%  
113 0.7% 2%  
114 0.5% 1.5%  
115 0.3% 1.0%  
116 0.2% 0.7%  
117 0.1% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 0.4% 99.6%  
69 0.4% 99.2%  
70 0.7% 98.8%  
71 0.9% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 0.9% 95%  
74 3% 95%  
75 3% 91%  
76 3% 89%  
77 5% 85%  
78 6% 81%  
79 5% 75%  
80 6% 70%  
81 8% 65%  
82 4% 57%  
83 8% 53% Median
84 5% 45%  
85 6% 39%  
86 5% 33%  
87 6% 28%  
88 3% 22%  
89 4% 19%  
90 4% 15%  
91 2% 11%  
92 3% 9%  
93 2% 6%  
94 1.3% 5% Last Result
95 0.7% 4%  
96 1.2% 3%  
97 0.4% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.2%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.6%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.5%  
42 0.7% 99.1%  
43 1.3% 98%  
44 1.1% 97%  
45 3% 96%  
46 3% 93%  
47 4% 90%  
48 8% 85%  
49 4% 78%  
50 9% 74%  
51 7% 65%  
52 6% 58%  
53 9% 52% Median
54 5% 43%  
55 8% 38%  
56 7% 30%  
57 5% 24%  
58 6% 18%  
59 3% 13%  
60 3% 10%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.1% 5%  
63 1.4% 4%  
64 0.5% 2%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.2% 99.8%  
27 0.5% 99.6%  
28 0.9% 99.1%  
29 2% 98%  
30 3% 97%  
31 4% 94%  
32 5% 90%  
33 7% 86%  
34 8% 79%  
35 8% 71%  
36 8% 62%  
37 9% 54% Median
38 9% 45%  
39 9% 36%  
40 7% 28%  
41 6% 21%  
42 4% 15%  
43 4% 10%  
44 2% 7%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.2% 3% Last Result
47 0.8% 2%  
48 0.5% 1.2%  
49 0.3% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 475 100% 463–486 460–490 457–492 451–498
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 452 100% 441–465 437–467 435–471 428–476
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 415 100% 403–427 399–431 396–434 390–440
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 378 99.1% 365–390 362–393 359–396 352–402
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 377 98.9% 364–390 361–393 358–396 352–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 355 50% 342–367 339–370 336–373 329–379
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 331 0.9% 319–344 316–347 313–350 307–357
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 316 0% 304–329 301–333 298–335 292–342
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 294 0% 282–307 279–310 276–313 270–319
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 279 0% 267–291 264–295 261–298 255–304
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 279 0% 267–291 263–294 260–297 255–303
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 219 0% 208–230 204–234 201–237 196–242
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 173 0% 163–184 160–187 157–190 152–195

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0% 99.9%  
447 0% 99.9%  
448 0.1% 99.8%  
449 0.1% 99.8%  
450 0.1% 99.7%  
451 0.1% 99.6%  
452 0.2% 99.4%  
453 0.3% 99.2%  
454 0.2% 98.9%  
455 0.4% 98.7%  
456 0.6% 98%  
457 0.6% 98%  
458 1.1% 97%  
459 0.7% 96%  
460 1.0% 95%  
461 1.3% 94%  
462 2% 93%  
463 1.4% 91%  
464 2% 89%  
465 2% 87%  
466 3% 85% Last Result
467 3% 82%  
468 3% 79%  
469 5% 76%  
470 3% 71%  
471 5% 68%  
472 3% 64%  
473 4% 60%  
474 5% 56% Median
475 4% 51%  
476 4% 47%  
477 3% 43%  
478 4% 40%  
479 4% 35%  
480 3% 32%  
481 4% 28%  
482 3% 24%  
483 3% 21%  
484 3% 19%  
485 3% 15%  
486 2% 12%  
487 2% 10%  
488 2% 8%  
489 0.9% 6%  
490 1.3% 5%  
491 1.0% 4%  
492 0.6% 3%  
493 0.4% 2%  
494 0.6% 2%  
495 0.4% 1.4%  
496 0.2% 1.1%  
497 0.2% 0.8%  
498 0.1% 0.6%  
499 0.1% 0.5%  
500 0.1% 0.4%  
501 0.1% 0.2%  
502 0% 0.2%  
503 0% 0.2%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.8%  
426 0.1% 99.8%  
427 0.1% 99.8%  
428 0.1% 99.6%  
429 0.2% 99.5%  
430 0.3% 99.3%  
431 0.3% 99.0%  
432 0.2% 98.7%  
433 0.4% 98%  
434 0.4% 98%  
435 0.7% 98%  
436 1.2% 97%  
437 2% 96%  
438 2% 94%  
439 0.9% 92%  
440 1.1% 92%  
441 1.4% 90%  
442 3% 89%  
443 3% 86%  
444 3% 83%  
445 4% 80%  
446 3% 76%  
447 2% 73%  
448 2% 71%  
449 4% 68%  
450 4% 65%  
451 6% 61%  
452 6% 55% Median
453 4% 49%  
454 4% 45%  
455 3% 41%  
456 2% 38%  
457 4% 36%  
458 5% 32%  
459 3% 27%  
460 5% 24%  
461 3% 19%  
462 2% 16%  
463 1.5% 14%  
464 2% 13%  
465 2% 11%  
466 2% 9%  
467 2% 7%  
468 0.9% 5%  
469 0.8% 4%  
470 0.4% 3%  
471 0.5% 3%  
472 0.5% 2%  
473 0.4% 2%  
474 0.3% 1.3%  
475 0.4% 0.9%  
476 0.1% 0.6%  
477 0.1% 0.5%  
478 0.1% 0.4%  
479 0.1% 0.3%  
480 0.1% 0.2%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0.1% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0.1% 99.7%  
390 0.2% 99.6%  
391 0.2% 99.5%  
392 0.2% 99.3%  
393 0.3% 99.0%  
394 0.3% 98.7%  
395 0.5% 98%  
396 0.5% 98%  
397 0.9% 97%  
398 1.2% 97%  
399 1.4% 95%  
400 1.2% 94%  
401 1.3% 93%  
402 1.3% 92%  
403 2% 90%  
404 2% 89%  
405 3% 87%  
406 4% 84%  
407 2% 80%  
408 2% 78%  
409 3% 76%  
410 3% 73%  
411 3% 70%  
412 5% 67%  
413 4% 62%  
414 5% 58% Median
415 4% 54%  
416 4% 50%  
417 4% 46%  
418 5% 42%  
419 4% 37%  
420 5% 33%  
421 4% 29%  
422 3% 25%  
423 3% 22%  
424 3% 19%  
425 2% 16%  
426 3% 14%  
427 2% 11%  
428 2% 10%  
429 2% 8%  
430 0.9% 6%  
431 1.1% 5%  
432 0.7% 4%  
433 0.5% 3%  
434 0.5% 3%  
435 0.6% 2%  
436 0.4% 2%  
437 0.2% 1.1%  
438 0.2% 0.9%  
439 0.1% 0.7%  
440 0.1% 0.6%  
441 0.1% 0.4%  
442 0.1% 0.3%  
443 0.1% 0.3%  
444 0% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.1% 99.6%  
353 0.1% 99.5%  
354 0.2% 99.4%  
355 0.3% 99.1% Majority
356 0.3% 98.9%  
357 0.4% 98.6%  
358 0.5% 98%  
359 0.6% 98%  
360 0.8% 97%  
361 1.0% 96%  
362 0.8% 95%  
363 2% 94%  
364 2% 92%  
365 2% 91%  
366 2% 89%  
367 3% 87%  
368 3% 85%  
369 3% 82%  
370 4% 79%  
371 3% 76%  
372 4% 73%  
373 3% 68%  
374 3% 66%  
375 4% 62%  
376 4% 58%  
377 4% 54% Median
378 4% 51%  
379 5% 47%  
380 3% 42%  
381 5% 39%  
382 3% 34%  
383 4% 31%  
384 3% 27%  
385 4% 24%  
386 2% 20%  
387 3% 18%  
388 2% 15%  
389 2% 13%  
390 2% 10%  
391 2% 9%  
392 1.1% 7%  
393 1.2% 6%  
394 1.1% 5%  
395 0.7% 4%  
396 0.6% 3%  
397 0.6% 2%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.3% 1.4%  
400 0.2% 1.1%  
401 0.2% 0.9%  
402 0.2% 0.7%  
403 0.1% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.4%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.1% 99.6%  
353 0.3% 99.4%  
354 0.2% 99.1%  
355 0.2% 98.9% Majority
356 0.4% 98.7%  
357 0.5% 98%  
358 0.4% 98%  
359 0.6% 97%  
360 1.0% 97%  
361 0.9% 96%  
362 1.0% 95%  
363 2% 94%  
364 3% 92%  
365 2% 89%  
366 2% 87%  
367 2% 86%  
368 2% 83%  
369 2% 81%  
370 3% 79%  
371 4% 76%  
372 3% 72%  
373 3% 69%  
374 5% 66%  
375 6% 61%  
376 4% 55% Median
377 4% 51%  
378 4% 47%  
379 4% 43%  
380 3% 40%  
381 3% 36%  
382 5% 33%  
383 3% 28%  
384 2% 25%  
385 3% 23%  
386 3% 20%  
387 2% 17%  
388 2% 15%  
389 3% 13%  
390 2% 10%  
391 1.1% 8%  
392 1.4% 7%  
393 1.2% 5%  
394 0.7% 4%  
395 0.4% 3%  
396 0.5% 3%  
397 0.5% 2%  
398 0.3% 2%  
399 0.3% 1.5%  
400 0.4% 1.1%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0.2% 0.6%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0% 99.7%  
329 0.2% 99.6%  
330 0.3% 99.5%  
331 0.1% 99.2%  
332 0.3% 99.1%  
333 0.6% 98.8%  
334 0.2% 98%  
335 0.5% 98%  
336 1.1% 98%  
337 0.6% 96%  
338 0.5% 96%  
339 2% 95%  
340 1.1% 93%  
341 0.5% 92%  
342 4% 91%  
343 2% 88%  
344 1.0% 86%  
345 4% 85%  
346 4% 81%  
347 1.4% 78%  
348 4% 76%  
349 5% 73%  
350 2% 68%  
351 5% 66%  
352 6% 61%  
353 1.4% 55%  
354 4% 54% Median
355 7% 50% Majority
356 2% 43%  
357 3% 42%  
358 8% 39%  
359 2% 31%  
360 2% 30%  
361 5% 28%  
362 3% 23%  
363 2% 20%  
364 3% 18%  
365 3% 15%  
366 0.6% 12%  
367 3% 11%  
368 2% 8%  
369 0.5% 7%  
370 1.4% 6%  
371 1.3% 5%  
372 0.4% 3%  
373 0.8% 3%  
374 0.7% 2%  
375 0.2% 2%  
376 0.3% 1.4%  
377 0.4% 1.2%  
378 0.1% 0.7%  
379 0.2% 0.7%  
380 0.2% 0.5%  
381 0% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.2% 99.5%  
308 0.2% 99.3%  
309 0.2% 99.1%  
310 0.3% 98.9%  
311 0.5% 98.6%  
312 0.6% 98%  
313 0.6% 98%  
314 0.7% 97%  
315 1.1% 96%  
316 1.2% 95%  
317 1.1% 94%  
318 2% 93%  
319 2% 91%  
320 2% 90%  
321 2% 87%  
322 3% 85%  
323 2% 82%  
324 4% 80%  
325 3% 76%  
326 4% 73%  
327 3% 69%  
328 5% 66%  
329 3% 61%  
330 5% 58%  
331 4% 53% Median
332 4% 49%  
333 4% 46%  
334 4% 42%  
335 3% 38%  
336 3% 34%  
337 4% 32%  
338 3% 27%  
339 4% 24%  
340 3% 21%  
341 3% 18%  
342 3% 15%  
343 2% 13%  
344 2% 11%  
345 2% 9%  
346 2% 8%  
347 0.8% 6%  
348 1.0% 5%  
349 0.8% 4%  
350 0.6% 3%  
351 0.5% 2%  
352 0.4% 2%  
353 0.3% 1.4%  
354 0.3% 1.1%  
355 0.2% 0.9% Majority
356 0.1% 0.6%  
357 0.1% 0.5%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.2% 99.6%  
293 0.3% 99.4%  
294 0.2% 99.1%  
295 0.5% 98.9%  
296 0.4% 98%  
297 0.4% 98%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0.5% 97%  
300 0.7% 97%  
301 1.2% 96%  
302 2% 95%  
303 2% 93%  
304 4% 91%  
305 2% 88%  
306 2% 86%  
307 2% 84%  
308 1.4% 82%  
309 2% 81%  
310 2% 79%  
311 3% 77%  
312 4% 73%  
313 5% 69%  
314 5% 65%  
315 7% 59%  
316 5% 52% Median
317 3% 48%  
318 2% 45%  
319 3% 42%  
320 2% 40%  
321 3% 37%  
322 4% 34%  
323 3% 30%  
324 5% 26%  
325 4% 22%  
326 3% 18%  
327 3% 15%  
328 2% 12%  
329 0.9% 10%  
330 1.1% 10%  
331 1.1% 8%  
332 0.9% 7%  
333 2% 6%  
334 1.2% 5%  
335 1.0% 3%  
336 0.6% 2%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.4% 1.4%  
339 0.2% 1.0%  
340 0.1% 0.9%  
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.2% 99.5%  
272 0.3% 99.3%  
273 0.3% 99.0%  
274 0.4% 98.7%  
275 0.5% 98%  
276 0.7% 98%  
277 0.9% 97%  
278 0.9% 96%  
279 1.1% 95%  
280 1.2% 94%  
281 2% 93%  
282 2% 91%  
283 2% 89%  
284 2% 88%  
285 3% 86%  
286 2% 82%  
287 3% 80%  
288 4% 77%  
289 3% 73%  
290 4% 70%  
291 4% 66%  
292 3% 62%  
293 4% 59%  
294 4% 54% Median
295 5% 50%  
296 3% 45%  
297 3% 42%  
298 3% 38%  
299 4% 35%  
300 5% 31%  
301 3% 26%  
302 3% 23%  
303 3% 20%  
304 3% 18%  
305 2% 15%  
306 2% 13%  
307 1.4% 11%  
308 2% 9%  
309 2% 7%  
310 1.1% 6%  
311 0.7% 4%  
312 0.7% 4%  
313 0.7% 3%  
314 0.5% 2%  
315 0.3% 2%  
316 0.4% 2%  
317 0.3% 1.1%  
318 0.2% 0.8%  
319 0.1% 0.6%  
320 0.1% 0.5%  
321 0.1% 0.4%  
322 0.1% 0.3%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Last Result
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.2% 99.6%  
256 0.1% 99.4%  
257 0.3% 99.3%  
258 0.5% 99.0%  
259 0.2% 98.5%  
260 0.5% 98%  
261 1.1% 98%  
262 0.2% 97%  
263 1.3% 97%  
264 2% 95%  
265 0.4% 93%  
266 2% 93%  
267 3% 91%  
268 0.7% 88%  
269 3% 87%  
270 4% 85%  
271 1.4% 81%  
272 5% 80%  
273 3% 74%  
274 1.0% 71%  
275 5% 70%  
276 5% 65%  
277 0.6% 59%  
278 7% 59%  
279 4% 52% Median
280 2% 47%  
281 6% 45%  
282 3% 39%  
283 2% 36%  
284 6% 34%  
285 2% 27%  
286 2% 26%  
287 5% 23%  
288 2% 18%  
289 1.4% 16%  
290 4% 15%  
291 0.6% 10%  
292 2% 10%  
293 2% 8%  
294 0.4% 6%  
295 1.1% 6%  
296 1.4% 4%  
297 0.1% 3%  
298 0.7% 3%  
299 0.8% 2%  
300 0.1% 1.4%  
301 0.3% 1.3%  
302 0.4% 1.0%  
303 0.1% 0.6%  
304 0.2% 0.6%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0% 0.3%  
307 0.1% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0.2% 99.5%  
256 0.3% 99.3%  
257 0.3% 99.1%  
258 0.3% 98.8%  
259 0.5% 98%  
260 0.7% 98%  
261 0.7% 97%  
262 0.9% 97%  
263 0.9% 96%  
264 1.4% 95%  
265 2% 93%  
266 1.0% 92%  
267 3% 91%  
268 2% 88%  
269 2% 86%  
270 2% 83%  
271 3% 81%  
272 3% 77%  
273 3% 74%  
274 4% 71%  
275 4% 67%  
276 4% 63%  
277 3% 59%  
278 5% 56% Median
279 4% 50%  
280 4% 46%  
281 3% 43%  
282 4% 39%  
283 5% 35%  
284 3% 30%  
285 3% 27%  
286 5% 24%  
287 2% 20%  
288 2% 17%  
289 2% 15%  
290 2% 13%  
291 2% 11%  
292 1.1% 9%  
293 1.1% 7%  
294 2% 6%  
295 0.5% 4%  
296 0.7% 4%  
297 0.9% 3%  
298 0.4% 2%  
299 0.3% 2%  
300 0.3% 1.4%  
301 0.3% 1.1%  
302 0.2% 0.9%  
303 0.1% 0.6%  
304 0.1% 0.5%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0.1% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
191 0% 100%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.8%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.3% 99.6%  
197 0.1% 99.3%  
198 0.2% 99.2%  
199 0.4% 99.0%  
200 0.4% 98.6%  
201 0.8% 98%  
202 0.5% 97%  
203 0.9% 97%  
204 2% 96%  
205 1.5% 94%  
206 0.9% 93%  
207 1.5% 92%  
208 4% 91%  
209 3% 87%  
210 2% 84%  
211 2% 82%  
212 4% 81%  
213 5% 77%  
214 4% 72%  
215 2% 69%  
216 6% 67%  
217 6% 61%  
218 3% 55% Median
219 3% 51%  
220 4% 49%  
221 7% 45%  
222 4% 38%  
223 3% 34%  
224 3% 31%  
225 5% 28%  
226 4% 24%  
227 2% 19%  
228 2% 17%  
229 3% 15%  
230 2% 12%  
231 2% 10%  
232 1.0% 8%  
233 2% 7% Last Result
234 2% 5%  
235 0.7% 4%  
236 0.3% 3%  
237 0.7% 3%  
238 0.6% 2%  
239 0.4% 1.5%  
240 0.1% 1.0%  
241 0.2% 0.9%  
242 0.2% 0.7%  
243 0.1% 0.4%  
244 0% 0.3%  
245 0% 0.3%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0.1% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.1% 99.6%  
153 0.2% 99.5%  
154 0.3% 99.3%  
155 0.3% 99.0%  
156 0.7% 98.6%  
157 0.5% 98%  
158 1.0% 97%  
159 0.9% 96%  
160 1.2% 96%  
161 2% 94%  
162 2% 93%  
163 3% 90%  
164 2% 87%  
165 2% 85%  
166 4% 83%  
167 4% 79%  
168 4% 76%  
169 4% 72%  
170 5% 68%  
171 4% 63%  
172 7% 60%  
173 4% 53% Median
174 5% 49%  
175 4% 44%  
176 4% 40%  
177 4% 36%  
178 5% 32%  
179 4% 27%  
180 4% 24%  
181 2% 20%  
182 3% 17%  
183 2% 15%  
184 2% 12%  
185 2% 10%  
186 2% 8%  
187 1.3% 6%  
188 1.4% 5%  
189 0.5% 3%  
190 0.8% 3%  
191 0.6% 2%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.2%  
194 0.3% 0.9%  
195 0.2% 0.6%  
196 0.2% 0.5%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations