Opinion Poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 8–9 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 18.5% 17.3–19.9% 16.9–20.3% 16.6–20.6% 16.1–21.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.8% 16.6–19.1% 16.2–19.5% 15.9–19.8% 15.4–20.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 14.9% 13.7–16.1% 13.4–16.5% 13.2–16.8% 12.6–17.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.9% 12.8–15.1% 12.5–15.4% 12.2–15.7% 11.7–16.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.9% 11.8–14.0% 11.5–14.4% 11.3–14.7% 10.8–15.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 11.9% 10.9–13.0% 10.6–13.3% 10.3–13.6% 9.9–14.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.1–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 139 130–149 127–152 125–154 121–159
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 134 125–143 122–146 120–149 115–154
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 112 103–121 101–124 99–126 95–130
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 105 96–113 94–116 92–118 88–122
Alternative für Deutschland 94 97 89–105 87–108 85–110 81–114
Die Linke 69 89 81–97 79–100 78–103 74–106
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 32 28–38 26–39 25–41 23–43

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.1% 99.7%  
121 0.3% 99.6%  
122 0.4% 99.3%  
123 0.5% 99.0%  
124 0.4% 98%  
125 0.6% 98%  
126 1.1% 97%  
127 2% 96%  
128 2% 95%  
129 2% 93%  
130 2% 91%  
131 2% 89%  
132 3% 87%  
133 5% 83%  
134 6% 78%  
135 4% 73%  
136 3% 68%  
137 4% 65%  
138 5% 61%  
139 7% 56% Median
140 6% 50%  
141 6% 44%  
142 4% 37%  
143 3% 34%  
144 4% 31%  
145 5% 27%  
146 5% 22%  
147 3% 17%  
148 2% 13%  
149 2% 11%  
150 1.5% 10%  
151 2% 8%  
152 2% 6%  
153 1.3% 4%  
154 0.6% 3%  
155 0.4% 2%  
156 0.3% 2%  
157 0.4% 1.5%  
158 0.3% 1.0%  
159 0.3% 0.7%  
160 0.1% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.3%  
162 0% 0.2%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.2% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.5%  
117 0.4% 99.3%  
118 0.4% 98.9%  
119 0.6% 98.5%  
120 1.1% 98%  
121 1.1% 97%  
122 1.3% 96%  
123 2% 94%  
124 3% 93%  
125 3% 90%  
126 3% 87%  
127 4% 85%  
128 4% 80%  
129 4% 76%  
130 5% 72%  
131 4% 67%  
132 6% 63%  
133 6% 58%  
134 6% 52% Median
135 5% 46%  
136 4% 41%  
137 5% 37%  
138 5% 32%  
139 4% 27%  
140 4% 24%  
141 3% 19%  
142 4% 16%  
143 2% 12%  
144 2% 10%  
145 2% 8%  
146 1.1% 6%  
147 1.3% 5%  
148 1.0% 4%  
149 0.6% 3%  
150 0.6% 2%  
151 0.4% 1.5%  
152 0.3% 1.0%  
153 0.2% 0.8% Last Result
154 0.1% 0.5%  
155 0.1% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.1% 99.7%  
95 0.2% 99.6%  
96 0.3% 99.4%  
97 0.6% 99.1%  
98 0.7% 98.5%  
99 1.1% 98%  
100 1.3% 97%  
101 1.3% 95%  
102 2% 94%  
103 3% 92%  
104 3% 90%  
105 4% 86%  
106 5% 83%  
107 4% 78%  
108 5% 74%  
109 5% 69%  
110 6% 64%  
111 5% 58%  
112 6% 53% Median
113 5% 46%  
114 5% 41%  
115 7% 36%  
116 4% 29%  
117 4% 25%  
118 4% 21%  
119 3% 17%  
120 2% 14%  
121 3% 12%  
122 2% 9%  
123 1.3% 7%  
124 2% 5%  
125 0.8% 4%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 0.6% 2%  
128 0.4% 1.4%  
129 0.3% 1.0%  
130 0.3% 0.7%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.2% 99.6%  
89 0.3% 99.3%  
90 0.5% 99.0%  
91 0.7% 98%  
92 1.1% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 2% 95%  
95 2% 93%  
96 3% 91%  
97 4% 89%  
98 4% 85%  
99 3% 81%  
100 6% 78%  
101 5% 72%  
102 5% 67%  
103 7% 62%  
104 5% 55%  
105 5% 50% Median
106 6% 45%  
107 6% 39%  
108 4% 32%  
109 5% 28%  
110 4% 23%  
111 4% 19%  
112 3% 15%  
113 3% 11%  
114 2% 9%  
115 1.3% 7%  
116 1.5% 5%  
117 1.1% 4%  
118 0.7% 3%  
119 0.7% 2%  
120 0.4% 1.4%  
121 0.3% 1.0%  
122 0.3% 0.7%  
123 0.1% 0.5%  
124 0.1% 0.3%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.6%  
82 0.5% 99.4%  
83 0.5% 98.9%  
84 0.9% 98%  
85 1.1% 98%  
86 1.4% 97%  
87 2% 95%  
88 3% 94%  
89 3% 91%  
90 4% 88%  
91 4% 84%  
92 4% 80%  
93 6% 75%  
94 5% 70% Last Result
95 7% 65%  
96 6% 58%  
97 6% 52% Median
98 7% 46%  
99 5% 39%  
100 4% 34%  
101 5% 30%  
102 5% 24%  
103 3% 20%  
104 4% 16%  
105 3% 13%  
106 2% 10%  
107 2% 7%  
108 1.4% 6%  
109 1.1% 4%  
110 0.9% 3%  
111 0.6% 2%  
112 0.5% 2%  
113 0.3% 1.0%  
114 0.2% 0.7%  
115 0.2% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.1% 99.7%  
74 0.1% 99.6%  
75 0.2% 99.5%  
76 0.4% 99.3%  
77 1.0% 98.9%  
78 2% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 3% 94%  
81 3% 91%  
82 2% 89%  
83 2% 86%  
84 2% 85%  
85 5% 82%  
86 6% 78%  
87 11% 71%  
88 9% 60%  
89 7% 51% Median
90 5% 44%  
91 3% 40%  
92 3% 37%  
93 4% 34%  
94 6% 30%  
95 6% 24%  
96 6% 18%  
97 4% 12%  
98 2% 8%  
99 1.0% 6%  
100 0.7% 5%  
101 0.7% 4%  
102 0.9% 4%  
103 0.9% 3%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.5% 1.1%  
106 0.2% 0.6%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.7%  
24 1.0% 99.4%  
25 2% 98%  
26 2% 97%  
27 3% 94%  
28 7% 91%  
29 8% 84%  
30 8% 77%  
31 9% 68%  
32 11% 59% Median
33 11% 48%  
34 8% 37%  
35 6% 29%  
36 7% 23%  
37 5% 16%  
38 3% 10%  
39 2% 7%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.2% 3%  
42 0.7% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.9%  
44 0.2% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.1% Last Result
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 418 100% 406–430 403–433 399–436 394–441
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 410 100% 398–423 395–425 392–429 387–434
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 389 100% 376–401 373–404 370–407 364–413
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 373 98% 362–386 358–389 355–392 349–398
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 350 33% 338–362 335–366 332–369 326–374
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 336 2% 323–347 320–351 317–354 311–360
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 306 0% 294–318 291–321 288–325 282–330
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 284 0% 272–296 269–299 266–302 261–308
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 277 0% 265–289 261–292 259–295 253–300
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 269 0% 257–281 254–284 251–287 246–293
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 246 0% 235–257 231–261 229–264 223–269
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 238 0% 227–250 224–253 221–256 216–261
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 224 0% 212–235 209–238 207–241 201–246

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.1% 99.7%  
394 0.1% 99.5%  
395 0.1% 99.4%  
396 0.4% 99.3%  
397 0.3% 98.9%  
398 0.3% 98.6%  
399 0.8% 98%  
400 0.6% 97%  
401 0.6% 97%  
402 0.9% 96%  
403 1.3% 95%  
404 2% 94%  
405 2% 93%  
406 2% 91%  
407 3% 89%  
408 2% 86%  
409 2% 84%  
410 4% 82%  
411 4% 79%  
412 3% 75%  
413 3% 72%  
414 4% 68%  
415 4% 64%  
416 4% 60%  
417 4% 56% Median
418 3% 52%  
419 4% 48%  
420 4% 44%  
421 4% 40%  
422 4% 36%  
423 5% 32%  
424 3% 27%  
425 3% 24%  
426 3% 21%  
427 3% 18%  
428 3% 15%  
429 2% 13%  
430 2% 11%  
431 1.5% 9%  
432 1.2% 7%  
433 1.0% 6%  
434 1.4% 5%  
435 0.7% 4%  
436 0.6% 3%  
437 0.5% 2%  
438 0.5% 2%  
439 0.2% 1.2%  
440 0.3% 1.0%  
441 0.2% 0.7%  
442 0.1% 0.5%  
443 0.1% 0.4%  
444 0.1% 0.3%  
445 0.1% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0.1% 99.7%  
386 0.1% 99.6%  
387 0.1% 99.5%  
388 0.2% 99.4%  
389 0.3% 99.2%  
390 0.5% 98.9%  
391 0.5% 98%  
392 0.8% 98%  
393 0.7% 97%  
394 1.1% 96%  
395 2% 95%  
396 0.8% 93%  
397 2% 93%  
398 1.4% 91%  
399 1.4% 90%  
400 2% 88%  
401 2% 86%  
402 3% 84%  
403 3% 82%  
404 3% 79%  
405 4% 75%  
406 4% 71%  
407 4% 67%  
408 7% 63%  
409 3% 56%  
410 4% 53% Median
411 4% 49%  
412 5% 45%  
413 3% 40%  
414 3% 37%  
415 3% 34%  
416 2% 31%  
417 4% 28%  
418 3% 24%  
419 4% 21%  
420 3% 17%  
421 3% 15%  
422 1.3% 11%  
423 2% 10%  
424 2% 8%  
425 1.2% 6%  
426 0.9% 5%  
427 0.7% 4%  
428 0.6% 3%  
429 0.4% 3%  
430 0.6% 2%  
431 0.3% 2%  
432 0.4% 1.3%  
433 0.2% 0.9%  
434 0.3% 0.7%  
435 0.1% 0.5%  
436 0.1% 0.4%  
437 0.1% 0.3%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.1% 99.5%  
366 0.2% 99.3%  
367 0.4% 99.2%  
368 0.4% 98.8%  
369 0.6% 98%  
370 0.6% 98%  
371 0.6% 97%  
372 0.8% 97%  
373 1.3% 96%  
374 1.4% 95%  
375 2% 93%  
376 2% 91%  
377 2% 89%  
378 1.3% 87%  
379 2% 86%  
380 3% 84%  
381 3% 81%  
382 3% 77%  
383 4% 74%  
384 4% 70%  
385 4% 67%  
386 3% 62%  
387 5% 59%  
388 5% 55% Median
389 5% 50%  
390 4% 45%  
391 3% 41%  
392 4% 38%  
393 4% 35% Last Result
394 5% 30%  
395 4% 26%  
396 2% 22%  
397 3% 20%  
398 1.4% 16%  
399 3% 15%  
400 2% 12%  
401 2% 10%  
402 2% 8%  
403 0.9% 6%  
404 0.8% 5%  
405 0.7% 4%  
406 0.6% 4%  
407 0.7% 3%  
408 0.7% 2%  
409 0.4% 2%  
410 0.3% 1.2%  
411 0.2% 0.9%  
412 0.2% 0.7%  
413 0.1% 0.5%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.7%  
349 0.2% 99.6%  
350 0.1% 99.4%  
351 0.3% 99.3%  
352 0.2% 99.0%  
353 0.5% 98.8%  
354 0.5% 98%  
355 0.5% 98% Majority
356 0.7% 97%  
357 0.8% 97%  
358 0.8% 96%  
359 1.4% 95%  
360 2% 93%  
361 1.3% 92%  
362 2% 90%  
363 3% 88%  
364 2% 85%  
365 2% 83%  
366 3% 81%  
367 3% 77%  
368 4% 75%  
369 4% 70%  
370 4% 66%  
371 4% 62%  
372 5% 58%  
373 4% 54% Median
374 4% 50%  
375 3% 45%  
376 4% 42%  
377 3% 38%  
378 5% 34%  
379 3% 30%  
380 4% 26%  
381 3% 23%  
382 3% 20%  
383 2% 17%  
384 2% 14%  
385 2% 12%  
386 1.5% 10%  
387 1.4% 9%  
388 2% 7%  
389 1.1% 6%  
390 0.9% 4%  
391 0.7% 4%  
392 0.9% 3%  
393 0.4% 2%  
394 0.4% 2%  
395 0.2% 1.2%  
396 0.2% 1.0%  
397 0.2% 0.7%  
398 0.2% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.4%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.1% 99.6%  
327 0.2% 99.5%  
328 0.2% 99.3%  
329 0.3% 99.0%  
330 0.5% 98.8%  
331 0.4% 98%  
332 0.6% 98%  
333 1.0% 97%  
334 0.6% 96%  
335 0.9% 96%  
336 2% 95%  
337 1.2% 93%  
338 2% 92%  
339 2% 90%  
340 2% 88%  
341 2% 86%  
342 3% 84%  
343 3% 81%  
344 4% 78%  
345 5% 74%  
346 3% 70%  
347 4% 67%  
348 6% 63%  
349 3% 58%  
350 5% 54%  
351 2% 49% Median
352 6% 47%  
353 4% 41%  
354 4% 37%  
355 4% 33% Majority
356 3% 29%  
357 3% 26%  
358 3% 23%  
359 2% 20%  
360 4% 18%  
361 1.4% 14%  
362 2% 12%  
363 1.3% 10%  
364 2% 9%  
365 1.1% 7%  
366 1.4% 6%  
367 0.8% 4%  
368 0.9% 4%  
369 0.5% 3%  
370 0.5% 2%  
371 0.3% 2%  
372 0.3% 1.3%  
373 0.2% 1.0%  
374 0.3% 0.8%  
375 0.1% 0.5%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0.1% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.7%  
311 0.2% 99.6%  
312 0.2% 99.5%  
313 0.2% 99.3%  
314 0.2% 99.0%  
315 0.4% 98.8%  
316 0.4% 98%  
317 0.9% 98%  
318 0.7% 97%  
319 0.9% 96%  
320 1.1% 96%  
321 2% 94%  
322 1.4% 93%  
323 1.5% 91%  
324 2% 90%  
325 2% 88%  
326 2% 86%  
327 3% 83%  
328 3% 80%  
329 4% 77%  
330 3% 74%  
331 5% 70%  
332 3% 66%  
333 4% 62%  
334 3% 58%  
335 4% 55% Median
336 4% 50%  
337 5% 46%  
338 4% 42%  
339 4% 38%  
340 4% 34%  
341 4% 30%  
342 3% 25%  
343 3% 23%  
344 2% 19%  
345 2% 17%  
346 3% 15%  
347 2% 12%  
348 1.3% 10%  
349 2% 8%  
350 1.4% 7%  
351 0.8% 5%  
352 0.8% 4%  
353 0.7% 3%  
354 0.5% 3%  
355 0.5% 2% Majority
356 0.5% 2%  
357 0.2% 1.2%  
358 0.3% 1.0%  
359 0.1% 0.7%  
360 0.2% 0.6%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.2% 99.6%  
283 0.2% 99.4%  
284 0.3% 99.2%  
285 0.3% 99.0%  
286 0.4% 98.6%  
287 0.7% 98%  
288 0.7% 98%  
289 0.6% 97%  
290 1.2% 96%  
291 1.1% 95%  
292 2% 94%  
293 2% 92%  
294 2% 91%  
295 2% 89%  
296 3% 87%  
297 2% 84%  
298 3% 82%  
299 4% 78%  
300 3% 74%  
301 4% 71%  
302 3% 67%  
303 3% 64%  
304 4% 61%  
305 5% 57% Median
306 4% 51%  
307 3% 47%  
308 3% 44%  
309 4% 41%  
310 4% 36%  
311 3% 32%  
312 4% 29%  
313 4% 25%  
314 3% 21%  
315 3% 18%  
316 2% 16%  
317 3% 14%  
318 2% 11%  
319 2% 9%  
320 1.3% 7%  
321 0.9% 6%  
322 0.8% 5%  
323 0.7% 4%  
324 0.7% 3%  
325 0.7% 3%  
326 0.4% 2%  
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.4% 1.3%  
329 0.2% 0.8%  
330 0.2% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.7%  
260 0.2% 99.7%  
261 0.2% 99.5%  
262 0.2% 99.3%  
263 0.4% 99.1%  
264 0.3% 98.7%  
265 0.6% 98%  
266 0.8% 98%  
267 0.6% 97%  
268 0.9% 96%  
269 1.5% 95%  
270 2% 94%  
271 1.2% 92%  
272 2% 91%  
273 2% 89%  
274 3% 87%  
275 2% 84%  
276 2% 82%  
277 4% 80%  
278 3% 76%  
279 5% 73%  
280 2% 68%  
281 5% 65%  
282 5% 60%  
283 3% 55% Median
284 5% 52%  
285 3% 47%  
286 6% 44%  
287 4% 38%  
288 3% 34%  
289 3% 32%  
290 5% 28%  
291 2% 23%  
292 3% 21%  
293 4% 19%  
294 2% 15%  
295 2% 12%  
296 1.5% 10%  
297 1.3% 9%  
298 2% 8%  
299 1.2% 6%  
300 0.6% 4%  
301 0.8% 4%  
302 0.6% 3%  
303 0.5% 2%  
304 0.4% 2%  
305 0.3% 1.4%  
306 0.3% 1.1%  
307 0.3% 0.8%  
308 0.1% 0.5%  
309 0.1% 0.5%  
310 0.1% 0.3%  
311 0.1% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1% Last Result
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.2% 99.6%  
254 0.2% 99.4%  
255 0.2% 99.2%  
256 0.3% 98.9%  
257 0.3% 98.6%  
258 0.7% 98%  
259 0.9% 98%  
260 0.6% 97%  
261 1.1% 96%  
262 2% 95%  
263 1.3% 93%  
264 2% 92%  
265 2% 90%  
266 2% 88%  
267 2% 86%  
268 3% 84%  
269 3% 81%  
270 5% 78%  
271 2% 74%  
272 3% 71%  
273 5% 68%  
274 5% 63%  
275 4% 58%  
276 3% 54% Median
277 5% 51%  
278 5% 45%  
279 4% 41%  
280 5% 37%  
281 4% 32%  
282 2% 28%  
283 3% 26%  
284 3% 23%  
285 3% 19%  
286 3% 16%  
287 1.4% 13%  
288 2% 12%  
289 2% 10%  
290 2% 8%  
291 1.2% 6%  
292 0.8% 5%  
293 1.0% 4%  
294 0.7% 3%  
295 0.5% 3%  
296 0.6% 2%  
297 0.3% 1.5%  
298 0.3% 1.1%  
299 0.2% 0.9%  
300 0.2% 0.7%  
301 0.1% 0.5%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.1% 99.6%  
246 0.1% 99.6%  
247 0.2% 99.4%  
248 0.5% 99.2%  
249 0.3% 98.7%  
250 0.4% 98%  
251 0.7% 98%  
252 0.8% 97%  
253 0.9% 97%  
254 0.9% 96%  
255 1.1% 95%  
256 3% 94%  
257 2% 90%  
258 1.4% 88%  
259 2% 87%  
260 2% 85%  
261 4% 83%  
262 3% 79%  
263 3% 76%  
264 5% 74%  
265 5% 68%  
266 3% 64%  
267 3% 61%  
268 5% 58% Median
269 5% 53%  
270 6% 48%  
271 3% 42%  
272 4% 39%  
273 5% 35%  
274 4% 30%  
275 3% 27%  
276 3% 23%  
277 3% 21%  
278 3% 17%  
279 2% 14%  
280 2% 13%  
281 2% 11%  
282 2% 9%  
283 2% 7%  
284 0.8% 6%  
285 1.2% 5%  
286 0.6% 3%  
287 0.8% 3%  
288 0.4% 2%  
289 0.3% 2%  
290 0.4% 1.4%  
291 0.3% 1.0%  
292 0.1% 0.7%  
293 0.2% 0.6%  
294 0.1% 0.4%  
295 0.1% 0.3%  
296 0.1% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
221 0.1% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.7%  
223 0.1% 99.6%  
224 0.2% 99.5%  
225 0.3% 99.3%  
226 0.4% 98.9%  
227 0.4% 98.5%  
228 0.3% 98%  
229 0.7% 98%  
230 1.2% 97%  
231 1.3% 96%  
232 1.0% 95%  
233 1.4% 94%  
234 2% 92%  
235 3% 90%  
236 2% 87%  
237 2% 85%  
238 3% 83%  
239 4% 80%  
240 4% 76%  
241 3% 72%  
242 3% 69%  
243 4% 65%  
244 6% 61%  
245 4% 55%  
246 3% 51% Median
247 4% 48%  
248 5% 45%  
249 5% 39%  
250 3% 34%  
251 3% 31%  
252 3% 28%  
253 5% 25%  
254 3% 19%  
255 2% 16%  
256 2% 14%  
257 3% 13%  
258 2% 10%  
259 1.3% 8%  
260 0.9% 6%  
261 1.4% 6%  
262 0.8% 4%  
263 0.8% 3%  
264 0.7% 3%  
265 0.3% 2%  
266 0.3% 2%  
267 0.4% 1.3%  
268 0.3% 0.9%  
269 0.1% 0.6%  
270 0.1% 0.5%  
271 0.1% 0.4%  
272 0.1% 0.3%  
273 0.1% 0.2%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0.1% 99.9%  
213 0.1% 99.8%  
214 0.1% 99.8%  
215 0.1% 99.7%  
216 0.2% 99.6%  
217 0.2% 99.4%  
218 0.3% 99.2%  
219 0.3% 98.8%  
220 0.6% 98.5%  
221 0.8% 98%  
222 0.7% 97%  
223 1.1% 96%  
224 1.0% 95%  
225 2% 94%  
226 2% 93%  
227 2% 91%  
228 3% 89%  
229 3% 86%  
230 2% 84%  
231 4% 81%  
232 3% 78%  
233 3% 75% Last Result
234 3% 72%  
235 4% 68%  
236 4% 64%  
237 5% 59%  
238 4% 54%  
239 4% 50% Median
240 5% 46%  
241 3% 40%  
242 5% 38%  
243 3% 33%  
244 3% 30%  
245 4% 26%  
246 3% 22%  
247 3% 19%  
248 3% 15%  
249 2% 13%  
250 2% 11%  
251 2% 9%  
252 1.1% 7%  
253 1.4% 6%  
254 1.0% 5%  
255 0.8% 4%  
256 0.6% 3%  
257 0.5% 2%  
258 0.3% 2%  
259 0.4% 1.4%  
260 0.3% 1.0%  
261 0.2% 0.7%  
262 0.1% 0.5%  
263 0.1% 0.4%  
264 0.1% 0.3%  
265 0% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0.1% 99.9%  
199 0.1% 99.8%  
200 0.1% 99.7%  
201 0.2% 99.6%  
202 0.3% 99.5%  
203 0.3% 99.2%  
204 0.4% 98.9%  
205 0.4% 98.6%  
206 0.7% 98%  
207 0.5% 98%  
208 1.1% 97%  
209 1.5% 96%  
210 1.3% 94%  
211 1.4% 93%  
212 2% 92%  
213 2% 90%  
214 3% 88%  
215 3% 85%  
216 2% 81%  
217 4% 79%  
218 4% 75%  
219 4% 71%  
220 5% 67%  
221 4% 63%  
222 5% 59% Last Result
223 4% 54% Median
224 5% 50%  
225 4% 46%  
226 4% 41%  
227 4% 37%  
228 4% 33%  
229 4% 29%  
230 3% 25%  
231 4% 21%  
232 3% 18%  
233 3% 14%  
234 1.2% 12%  
235 2% 11%  
236 2% 8%  
237 1.2% 7%  
238 1.0% 6%  
239 1.1% 5%  
240 0.7% 4%  
241 0.7% 3%  
242 0.5% 2%  
243 0.3% 2%  
244 0.3% 1.3%  
245 0.3% 1.0%  
246 0.2% 0.6%  
247 0.1% 0.5%  
248 0.1% 0.3%  
249 0.1% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations