Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 7–11 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.9% 20.5–23.4% 20.1–23.8% 19.8–24.2% 19.2–24.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.7–21.4% 18.3–21.8% 18.0–22.2% 17.3–22.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.4–17.7% 14.2–18.0% 13.6–18.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.6–14.6% 11.3–14.9% 10.8–15.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.5% 9.4–12.7% 9.0–13.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.7–6.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 165 155–176 152–179 149–181 144–187
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 150 140–161 138–164 135–166 131–172
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 121 111–130 108–132 107–135 102–139
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 97 90–108 88–109 85–111 82–116
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 75–91 73–93 71–96 67–100
Die Linke 69 53 47–60 45–62 43–63 41–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 33–44 31–47 30–48 28–50

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.1% 99.7%  
144 0.2% 99.6%  
145 0.2% 99.5%  
146 0.3% 99.3%  
147 0.3% 98.9%  
148 0.6% 98.6%  
149 0.7% 98%  
150 1.2% 97%  
151 1.1% 96%  
152 2% 95%  
153 2% 94%  
154 1.5% 92%  
155 2% 90%  
156 3% 88%  
157 3% 85%  
158 4% 82%  
159 4% 79%  
160 4% 74%  
161 3% 70%  
162 4% 67%  
163 5% 63%  
164 5% 58%  
165 6% 53% Median
166 4% 47%  
167 5% 43%  
168 4% 38%  
169 3% 34%  
170 4% 30%  
171 4% 26%  
172 4% 23%  
173 3% 19%  
174 3% 16%  
175 3% 13%  
176 2% 10%  
177 2% 9%  
178 1.3% 7%  
179 1.1% 6%  
180 1.4% 5%  
181 0.8% 3%  
182 0.7% 2%  
183 0.4% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.5%  
185 0.3% 1.0%  
186 0.2% 0.8%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.2% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.8%  
130 0.2% 99.7%  
131 0.2% 99.5%  
132 0.3% 99.3%  
133 0.4% 99.0%  
134 0.6% 98.6%  
135 0.9% 98%  
136 0.7% 97%  
137 1.0% 96%  
138 2% 95%  
139 2% 94%  
140 2% 92%  
141 3% 89%  
142 4% 87%  
143 3% 83%  
144 3% 80%  
145 4% 77%  
146 5% 73%  
147 5% 68%  
148 5% 63%  
149 5% 59%  
150 4% 53% Median
151 5% 49%  
152 6% 45%  
153 4% 39%  
154 3% 35%  
155 4% 31%  
156 3% 27%  
157 4% 24%  
158 4% 20%  
159 3% 17%  
160 2% 13%  
161 2% 11%  
162 2% 10%  
163 2% 8%  
164 2% 6%  
165 0.9% 4%  
166 0.9% 3%  
167 0.4% 2%  
168 0.4% 2%  
169 0.5% 2%  
170 0.3% 1.1%  
171 0.2% 0.8%  
172 0.2% 0.5%  
173 0.1% 0.4%  
174 0.1% 0.3%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0.1% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.6%  
103 0.1% 99.5%  
104 0.9% 99.4%  
105 0.5% 98%  
106 0.1% 98%  
107 1.1% 98%  
108 2% 97%  
109 0.4% 94%  
110 0.9% 94%  
111 5% 93%  
112 2% 88%  
113 0.3% 86%  
114 5% 85%  
115 7% 80%  
116 0.9% 73%  
117 3% 72%  
118 12% 69%  
119 3% 58%  
120 0.5% 54%  
121 8% 54% Median
122 9% 46%  
123 0.7% 37%  
124 3% 36%  
125 9% 32%  
126 2% 23%  
127 0.5% 21%  
128 5% 20%  
129 5% 15%  
130 0.2% 10%  
131 1.2% 10%  
132 4% 9%  
133 0.7% 5%  
134 0.2% 4%  
135 1.4% 4%  
136 1.0% 2%  
137 0% 1.4%  
138 0.3% 1.4%  
139 0.6% 1.1%  
140 0.1% 0.5%  
141 0% 0.4%  
142 0.2% 0.4%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.7%  
82 0.2% 99.6%  
83 1.0% 99.4%  
84 0.8% 98%  
85 1.1% 98%  
86 0.4% 97%  
87 0.4% 96%  
88 1.4% 96%  
89 4% 94%  
90 5% 91%  
91 6% 86%  
92 2% 80%  
93 2% 78%  
94 2% 76%  
95 6% 74%  
96 10% 68%  
97 10% 58% Median
98 4% 48%  
99 2% 43%  
100 3% 41%  
101 3% 39%  
102 10% 35%  
103 6% 25%  
104 5% 19%  
105 1.5% 14%  
106 0.8% 12%  
107 1.2% 12%  
108 3% 11%  
109 2% 7%  
110 2% 5%  
111 0.6% 3%  
112 0.2% 2%  
113 0.1% 2%  
114 0.7% 2%  
115 0.4% 1.1%  
116 0.4% 0.7%  
117 0.1% 0.3%  
118 0% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.4%  
69 0.1% 99.2%  
70 0.9% 99.1%  
71 2% 98%  
72 1.4% 97%  
73 0.5% 95%  
74 2% 95%  
75 6% 93%  
76 4% 87%  
77 1.1% 83%  
78 3% 82%  
79 10% 78%  
80 8% 68%  
81 2% 61%  
82 4% 58%  
83 8% 55% Median
84 11% 47%  
85 3% 36%  
86 2% 33%  
87 7% 31%  
88 8% 25%  
89 3% 16%  
90 0.8% 14%  
91 3% 13%  
92 3% 10%  
93 2% 6%  
94 0.3% 4% Last Result
95 1.0% 4%  
96 1.5% 3%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.1% 1.1%  
99 0.2% 1.0%  
100 0.4% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.5% 99.6%  
42 0.5% 99.1%  
43 1.2% 98.6%  
44 2% 97%  
45 2% 96%  
46 3% 93%  
47 4% 90%  
48 5% 86%  
49 7% 81%  
50 6% 74%  
51 9% 68%  
52 7% 59%  
53 8% 53% Median
54 7% 45%  
55 7% 38%  
56 7% 31%  
57 4% 23%  
58 5% 19%  
59 4% 15%  
60 3% 10%  
61 2% 8%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.4% 4%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 0.8% 99.5%  
30 2% 98.7%  
31 3% 97%  
32 4% 94%  
33 5% 90%  
34 5% 85%  
35 4% 80%  
36 5% 76%  
37 7% 71%  
38 10% 64%  
39 12% 55% Median
40 11% 42%  
41 10% 32%  
42 6% 22%  
43 4% 16%  
44 2% 12%  
45 2% 9%  
46 2% 7% Last Result
47 2% 5%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.5% 1.0%  
51 0.2% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 475 100% 463–487 459–490 457–493 450–498
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 453 100% 440–464 437–468 434–471 428–476
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 423 100% 409–435 406–438 403–440 398–447
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 385 99.9% 372–397 369–401 366–404 360–410
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 370 93% 357–382 353–386 350–388 344–395
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 355 51% 342–366 338–370 335–374 329–380
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 324 0.1% 312–337 308–340 305–343 299–349
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 326 0.1% 312–336 308–340 305–342 300–349
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 302 0% 290–314 286–318 283–321 277–327
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 287 0% 274–299 271–303 268–306 262–312
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 259–283 256–287 252–290 247–296
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 219 0% 207–231 204–234 201–236 196–242
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 174 0% 163–184 160–188 157–191 153–196

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0% 99.9%  
447 0.1% 99.9%  
448 0.1% 99.8%  
449 0.1% 99.8%  
450 0.2% 99.7%  
451 0.2% 99.4%  
452 0.1% 99.3%  
453 0.2% 99.2%  
454 0.3% 99.0%  
455 0.4% 98.7%  
456 0.7% 98%  
457 1.0% 98%  
458 0.7% 97%  
459 1.1% 96%  
460 0.9% 95%  
461 1.0% 94%  
462 1.2% 93%  
463 2% 92%  
464 3% 90%  
465 3% 87%  
466 3% 84% Last Result
467 2% 81%  
468 2% 79%  
469 3% 76%  
470 3% 74%  
471 5% 70%  
472 5% 65%  
473 6% 61%  
474 5% 55%  
475 3% 51% Median
476 2% 47%  
477 3% 45%  
478 4% 41%  
479 6% 38%  
480 5% 32%  
481 3% 27%  
482 3% 23%  
483 3% 20%  
484 2% 18%  
485 2% 16%  
486 3% 14%  
487 2% 11%  
488 2% 9%  
489 1.2% 7%  
490 0.9% 5%  
491 0.6% 4%  
492 1.0% 4%  
493 0.5% 3%  
494 0.6% 2%  
495 0.5% 2%  
496 0.2% 1.0%  
497 0.2% 0.8%  
498 0.1% 0.6%  
499 0.1% 0.5%  
500 0.1% 0.4%  
501 0.1% 0.3%  
502 0.1% 0.2%  
503 0.1% 0.2%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0.1% 99.8%  
426 0.1% 99.8%  
427 0.1% 99.6%  
428 0.2% 99.6%  
429 0.2% 99.4%  
430 0.2% 99.2%  
431 0.5% 98.9%  
432 0.5% 98%  
433 0.3% 98%  
434 0.6% 98%  
435 0.8% 97%  
436 1.0% 96%  
437 0.7% 95%  
438 2% 95%  
439 2% 93%  
440 2% 91%  
441 2% 90%  
442 3% 87%  
443 2% 84%  
444 3% 83%  
445 2% 80%  
446 3% 78%  
447 4% 74%  
448 5% 71%  
449 4% 66%  
450 4% 63%  
451 6% 59% Median
452 3% 53%  
453 7% 50%  
454 3% 44%  
455 3% 40%  
456 3% 37%  
457 2% 34%  
458 5% 31%  
459 2% 26%  
460 4% 24%  
461 3% 20%  
462 2% 17%  
463 4% 15%  
464 2% 11%  
465 1.4% 9%  
466 1.4% 8%  
467 0.9% 6%  
468 1.0% 5%  
469 1.0% 4%  
470 0.7% 3%  
471 0.6% 3%  
472 0.5% 2%  
473 0.5% 2%  
474 0.3% 1.1%  
475 0.2% 0.8%  
476 0.2% 0.6%  
477 0.1% 0.5%  
478 0.1% 0.4%  
479 0.1% 0.3%  
480 0% 0.2%  
481 0% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0.1% 99.8%  
396 0.1% 99.8%  
397 0.1% 99.7%  
398 0.1% 99.6%  
399 0.2% 99.4%  
400 0.2% 99.2%  
401 0.5% 99.0%  
402 0.6% 98.5%  
403 0.6% 98%  
404 0.9% 97%  
405 0.8% 97%  
406 1.2% 96%  
407 1.5% 94%  
408 1.4% 93%  
409 2% 92%  
410 2% 90%  
411 2% 88%  
412 2% 86%  
413 3% 84%  
414 3% 81%  
415 3% 78%  
416 3% 75%  
417 4% 72%  
418 4% 69%  
419 2% 64%  
420 3% 62%  
421 3% 59%  
422 4% 56% Median
423 4% 52%  
424 3% 48%  
425 4% 45%  
426 3% 41%  
427 4% 38%  
428 3% 34%  
429 4% 31%  
430 5% 27%  
431 4% 22%  
432 3% 18%  
433 3% 15%  
434 2% 13%  
435 3% 11%  
436 1.3% 8%  
437 1.1% 6%  
438 1.4% 5%  
439 0.8% 4%  
440 0.7% 3%  
441 0.5% 2%  
442 0.5% 2%  
443 0.2% 2%  
444 0.4% 1.4%  
445 0.2% 1.0%  
446 0.2% 0.7%  
447 0.1% 0.6%  
448 0.1% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.3%  
450 0.1% 0.3%  
451 0% 0.2%  
452 0% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.6%  
360 0.1% 99.5%  
361 0.2% 99.4%  
362 0.4% 99.2%  
363 0.2% 98.8%  
364 0.4% 98.6%  
365 0.6% 98%  
366 0.5% 98%  
367 0.8% 97%  
368 1.1% 96%  
369 1.0% 95%  
370 2% 94%  
371 1.4% 93%  
372 1.3% 91%  
373 3% 90%  
374 2% 87%  
375 2% 85%  
376 3% 83%  
377 3% 80%  
378 3% 77%  
379 3% 74%  
380 3% 71%  
381 5% 68%  
382 3% 63%  
383 3% 60%  
384 5% 57% Median
385 4% 51%  
386 4% 47%  
387 5% 44%  
388 4% 38%  
389 4% 35%  
390 2% 31%  
391 3% 28%  
392 3% 25%  
393 3% 22%  
394 3% 19%  
395 2% 16%  
396 2% 13%  
397 2% 12%  
398 1.3% 10%  
399 2% 9%  
400 0.9% 6%  
401 1.2% 6%  
402 0.7% 4%  
403 0.7% 4%  
404 0.8% 3%  
405 0.5% 2%  
406 0.4% 2%  
407 0.3% 1.2%  
408 0.3% 1.0%  
409 0.1% 0.7%  
410 0.2% 0.6%  
411 0.1% 0.4%  
412 0.1% 0.3%  
413 0.1% 0.3%  
414 0% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.9%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.7%  
344 0.2% 99.5%  
345 0.1% 99.4%  
346 0.2% 99.2%  
347 0.3% 99.0%  
348 0.5% 98.8%  
349 0.4% 98%  
350 0.7% 98%  
351 0.7% 97%  
352 1.3% 96%  
353 0.9% 95%  
354 1.2% 94%  
355 2% 93% Majority
356 1.4% 91%  
357 1.2% 90%  
358 2% 89%  
359 2% 87%  
360 2% 85%  
361 4% 82%  
362 4% 79%  
363 2% 74%  
364 5% 72%  
365 3% 68%  
366 4% 64%  
367 3% 60%  
368 3% 57% Median
369 4% 54%  
370 4% 50%  
371 3% 46%  
372 5% 43%  
373 5% 38%  
374 5% 33%  
375 3% 29%  
376 3% 26%  
377 3% 23%  
378 2% 19%  
379 2% 17%  
380 2% 15%  
381 2% 13%  
382 2% 11%  
383 2% 9%  
384 2% 8%  
385 1.0% 6%  
386 1.3% 5%  
387 0.9% 4%  
388 0.4% 3%  
389 0.6% 2%  
390 0.3% 2%  
391 0.2% 1.5%  
392 0.3% 1.3%  
393 0.3% 1.0%  
394 0.1% 0.7%  
395 0.1% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0.1% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.8%  
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0.1% 99.6%  
330 0.2% 99.5%  
331 0.3% 99.3%  
332 0.4% 99.0%  
333 0.3% 98.6%  
334 0.3% 98%  
335 0.6% 98%  
336 0.8% 97%  
337 1.1% 97%  
338 0.9% 95%  
339 0.6% 95%  
340 2% 94%  
341 2% 92%  
342 2% 90%  
343 2% 89%  
344 2% 87%  
345 3% 85%  
346 4% 82%  
347 4% 78%  
348 2% 74%  
349 2% 72%  
350 4% 71%  
351 6% 66%  
352 4% 60%  
353 3% 57%  
354 3% 54% Median
355 6% 51% Majority
356 5% 45%  
357 4% 40%  
358 2% 36%  
359 3% 33%  
360 3% 30%  
361 5% 27%  
362 2% 22%  
363 2% 20%  
364 3% 18%  
365 4% 16%  
366 2% 12%  
367 1.4% 10%  
368 0.8% 8%  
369 1.3% 8%  
370 2% 6%  
371 0.8% 5%  
372 0.6% 4%  
373 0.5% 3%  
374 0.8% 3%  
375 0.6% 2%  
376 0.3% 1.4%  
377 0.1% 1.0%  
378 0.2% 0.9%  
379 0.2% 0.7%  
380 0.2% 0.5%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0% 0.3%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.2% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.4%  
301 0.3% 99.3%  
302 0.3% 99.0%  
303 0.4% 98.8%  
304 0.5% 98%  
305 0.8% 98%  
306 0.7% 97%  
307 0.7% 96%  
308 1.2% 96%  
309 0.9% 94%  
310 2% 94%  
311 1.3% 91%  
312 2% 90%  
313 2% 88%  
314 2% 87%  
315 3% 84%  
316 3% 81%  
317 3% 78%  
318 3% 75%  
319 2% 72%  
320 4% 69%  
321 4% 65%  
322 5% 62%  
323 4% 56%  
324 4% 53% Median
325 5% 49%  
326 3% 43%  
327 3% 40%  
328 5% 37%  
329 3% 32%  
330 3% 29%  
331 3% 26%  
332 3% 23%  
333 3% 20%  
334 2% 17%  
335 2% 15%  
336 3% 13%  
337 1.3% 10%  
338 1.4% 9%  
339 2% 7%  
340 1.0% 6%  
341 1.1% 5%  
342 0.8% 4%  
343 0.5% 3%  
344 0.6% 2%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.2% 1.4%  
347 0.4% 1.2%  
348 0.2% 0.8%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.3% 99.6%  
301 0.2% 99.3%  
302 0.3% 99.1%  
303 0.2% 98.8%  
304 0.5% 98.6%  
305 0.7% 98%  
306 1.2% 97%  
307 1.3% 96%  
308 2% 95%  
309 1.3% 93%  
310 0.8% 92%  
311 1.2% 91%  
312 3% 90%  
313 2% 88%  
314 5% 86%  
315 2% 81%  
316 2% 79%  
317 2% 77%  
318 1.4% 75%  
319 4% 73%  
320 5% 70%  
321 4% 64%  
322 3% 60%  
323 2% 57%  
324 1.3% 55%  
325 3% 53% Median
326 5% 51%  
327 5% 45%  
328 4% 40%  
329 4% 36%  
330 2% 31%  
331 2% 30%  
332 3% 28%  
333 4% 24%  
334 5% 20%  
335 3% 15%  
336 2% 12%  
337 1.1% 9%  
338 1.0% 8%  
339 1.1% 7%  
340 2% 6%  
341 1.4% 5%  
342 1.0% 3%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.3% 1.5%  
347 0.3% 1.2%  
348 0.3% 0.9%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0.1% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.2% 99.6%  
278 0.2% 99.4%  
279 0.2% 99.2%  
280 0.4% 99.1%  
281 0.7% 98.7%  
282 0.3% 98%  
283 0.8% 98%  
284 0.7% 97%  
285 1.0% 96%  
286 0.7% 95%  
287 1.4% 94%  
288 2% 93%  
289 1.4% 91%  
290 2% 90%  
291 3% 88%  
292 2% 85%  
293 3% 83%  
294 4% 80%  
295 3% 77%  
296 4% 74%  
297 3% 70%  
298 4% 68%  
299 3% 63%  
300 4% 60%  
301 4% 56% Median
302 4% 52%  
303 3% 48%  
304 5% 45%  
305 4% 40%  
306 4% 36%  
307 4% 32%  
308 4% 28%  
309 3% 24%  
310 2% 21%  
311 3% 19%  
312 2% 16%  
313 3% 14%  
314 2% 12%  
315 2% 9%  
316 1.4% 8%  
317 1.0% 6%  
318 1.2% 5%  
319 0.7% 4%  
320 0.7% 4%  
321 0.7% 3%  
322 0.4% 2%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0.5% 1.4%  
325 0.2% 0.9%  
326 0.2% 0.8% Last Result
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0.3% 99.4%  
264 0.2% 99.2%  
265 0.4% 98.9%  
266 0.3% 98.6%  
267 0.4% 98%  
268 0.7% 98%  
269 0.4% 97%  
270 1.2% 97%  
271 0.7% 96%  
272 2% 95%  
273 2% 93%  
274 2% 92%  
275 2% 90%  
276 2% 87%  
277 3% 85%  
278 3% 82%  
279 3% 79%  
280 3% 77%  
281 2% 73%  
282 4% 71%  
283 4% 67%  
284 4% 63%  
285 4% 60%  
286 3% 55%  
287 6% 52% Median
288 3% 46%  
289 4% 43%  
290 5% 39%  
291 3% 34%  
292 4% 31%  
293 3% 27%  
294 3% 24%  
295 3% 21%  
296 2% 18%  
297 3% 16%  
298 2% 13%  
299 2% 11%  
300 2% 9%  
301 1.3% 8%  
302 1.3% 7%  
303 1.0% 5%  
304 1.1% 4%  
305 0.6% 3%  
306 0.7% 3%  
307 0.5% 2%  
308 0.3% 2%  
309 0.3% 1.3%  
310 0.2% 0.9%  
311 0.2% 0.7%  
312 0.2% 0.6%  
313 0.1% 0.4%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0.1% 0.2%  
316 0.1% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0.2% 99.6%  
248 0.2% 99.4%  
249 0.3% 99.2%  
250 0.3% 98.9%  
251 0.4% 98.6%  
252 0.7% 98%  
253 0.6% 97%  
254 0.8% 97%  
255 0.9% 96%  
256 1.3% 95%  
257 1.3% 94%  
258 2% 93%  
259 1.4% 91%  
260 3% 89%  
261 2% 87%  
262 2% 85%  
263 2% 82%  
264 4% 80%  
265 4% 76%  
266 4% 72%  
267 4% 68%  
268 3% 64%  
269 5% 61%  
270 3% 56%  
271 5% 53% Median
272 5% 48%  
273 4% 44%  
274 4% 40%  
275 3% 36%  
276 4% 33%  
277 3% 29%  
278 4% 26%  
279 2% 22%  
280 3% 20%  
281 3% 17%  
282 2% 14%  
283 2% 12%  
284 2% 10%  
285 1.3% 8%  
286 1.1% 7%  
287 1.2% 6%  
288 1.2% 5%  
289 0.6% 3%  
290 0.7% 3%  
291 0.3% 2%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.3% 1.3%  
294 0.2% 1.0%  
295 0.3% 0.8%  
296 0.1% 0.5%  
297 0.1% 0.4%  
298 0.1% 0.3%  
299 0.1% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.8%  
195 0.1% 99.7%  
196 0.1% 99.5%  
197 0.3% 99.4%  
198 0.3% 99.2%  
199 0.4% 98.8%  
200 0.4% 98%  
201 0.8% 98%  
202 0.9% 97%  
203 1.0% 96%  
204 1.1% 95%  
205 2% 94%  
206 2% 93%  
207 2% 91%  
208 2% 89%  
209 2% 87%  
210 2% 84%  
211 3% 82%  
212 3% 79%  
213 4% 76%  
214 4% 72%  
215 4% 68%  
216 4% 63%  
217 4% 59%  
218 4% 55% Median
219 4% 51%  
220 5% 47%  
221 4% 42%  
222 4% 37%  
223 3% 34%  
224 4% 31%  
225 3% 27%  
226 4% 23%  
227 2% 20%  
228 3% 17%  
229 3% 14%  
230 2% 12%  
231 2% 10%  
232 1.5% 8%  
233 1.4% 7% Last Result
234 1.1% 5%  
235 0.8% 4%  
236 0.8% 3%  
237 0.5% 2%  
238 0.3% 2%  
239 0.5% 2%  
240 0.2% 1.1%  
241 0.3% 0.9%  
242 0.2% 0.7%  
243 0.1% 0.5%  
244 0.1% 0.4%  
245 0.1% 0.3%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.1% 99.6%  
153 0.3% 99.5%  
154 0.3% 99.2%  
155 0.3% 98.9%  
156 0.5% 98.6%  
157 0.6% 98%  
158 0.7% 97%  
159 1.0% 97%  
160 2% 96%  
161 1.4% 94%  
162 1.3% 93%  
163 2% 91%  
164 2% 89%  
165 3% 87%  
166 4% 83%  
167 4% 80%  
168 3% 75%  
169 4% 72%  
170 4% 68%  
171 4% 64%  
172 5% 60%  
173 4% 55%  
174 5% 51% Median
175 4% 46%  
176 4% 41%  
177 5% 37%  
178 3% 32%  
179 5% 28%  
180 3% 24%  
181 4% 21%  
182 3% 17%  
183 2% 15%  
184 2% 12%  
185 1.3% 10%  
186 2% 8%  
187 2% 7%  
188 0.9% 5%  
189 0.8% 4%  
190 0.8% 3%  
191 0.6% 3%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.5% 2%  
194 0.3% 1.0%  
195 0.1% 0.7%  
196 0.2% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations