Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 11–14 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.2–23.8% 19.7–24.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.5% 18.4–20.7% 18.1–21.0% 17.8–21.3% 17.3–21.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.5% 15.5–17.6% 15.2–17.9% 14.9–18.2% 14.5–18.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.5% 12.6–14.5% 12.3–14.8% 12.1–15.1% 11.6–15.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.0% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 164 156–174 153–178 151–180 148–186
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 150 139–157 136–159 133–161 130–165
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 123 116–132 114–135 112–137 108–142
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 102 95–109 93–112 91–114 88–118
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 76–91 75–93 73–95 70–98
Die Linke 69 45 40–50 39–52 0–54 0–56
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 42 37–47 36–49 35–50 33–53

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.7%  
148 0.3% 99.6%  
149 0.5% 99.3%  
150 0.5% 98.9%  
151 0.9% 98%  
152 1.1% 97%  
153 2% 96%  
154 2% 95%  
155 3% 93%  
156 2% 90%  
157 3% 88%  
158 4% 85%  
159 5% 81%  
160 4% 76%  
161 6% 73%  
162 5% 67%  
163 7% 62%  
164 5% 54% Median
165 7% 50%  
166 5% 42%  
167 4% 38%  
168 5% 34%  
169 4% 29%  
170 3% 26%  
171 2% 22%  
172 4% 20%  
173 3% 16%  
174 3% 13%  
175 2% 10%  
176 2% 8%  
177 1.0% 6%  
178 1.3% 5%  
179 0.8% 4%  
180 0.7% 3%  
181 0.4% 2%  
182 0.5% 2%  
183 0.3% 1.4%  
184 0.4% 1.1%  
185 0.2% 0.7%  
186 0.1% 0.5%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.2% 99.7%  
130 0.3% 99.5%  
131 0.5% 99.2%  
132 0.8% 98.8%  
133 0.7% 98%  
134 1.1% 97%  
135 1.0% 96%  
136 1.5% 95%  
137 2% 94%  
138 2% 92%  
139 3% 90%  
140 2% 88%  
141 3% 85%  
142 2% 82%  
143 4% 80%  
144 3% 76%  
145 4% 73%  
146 4% 68%  
147 4% 64%  
148 4% 60%  
149 5% 55%  
150 5% 50% Median
151 6% 45%  
152 6% 39%  
153 6% 33%  
154 6% 27%  
155 4% 21%  
156 4% 17%  
157 3% 13%  
158 3% 10%  
159 2% 7%  
160 2% 5%  
161 1.2% 3%  
162 0.7% 2%  
163 0.5% 1.4%  
164 0.4% 0.9%  
165 0.2% 0.5%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.3% 99.5%  
110 0.4% 99.1%  
111 0.8% 98.7%  
112 1.1% 98%  
113 1.2% 97%  
114 2% 96%  
115 2% 93%  
116 3% 91%  
117 4% 88%  
118 5% 84%  
119 4% 79%  
120 7% 75%  
121 7% 68%  
122 5% 61%  
123 6% 56% Median
124 6% 50%  
125 5% 44%  
126 5% 38%  
127 5% 33%  
128 5% 28%  
129 4% 23%  
130 3% 19%  
131 3% 16%  
132 3% 13%  
133 2% 10%  
134 2% 8%  
135 1.2% 6%  
136 1.3% 5%  
137 0.8% 3%  
138 0.7% 2%  
139 0.5% 2%  
140 0.3% 1.2%  
141 0.4% 0.9%  
142 0.1% 0.5%  
143 0.1% 0.4%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.5%  
89 0.6% 99.3%  
90 0.7% 98.7%  
91 1.3% 98%  
92 1.3% 97%  
93 2% 95%  
94 3% 93%  
95 3% 91%  
96 5% 88%  
97 4% 82%  
98 6% 78%  
99 6% 72%  
100 7% 66%  
101 6% 59%  
102 9% 53% Median
103 6% 44%  
104 6% 39%  
105 7% 33%  
106 4% 26%  
107 5% 22%  
108 3% 16%  
109 4% 13%  
110 2% 9%  
111 2% 7%  
112 2% 5%  
113 1.0% 4%  
114 0.8% 3%  
115 0.5% 2%  
116 0.5% 1.3%  
117 0.2% 0.8%  
118 0.2% 0.6%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.5% 99.4%  
72 0.8% 99.0%  
73 1.2% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 3% 93%  
77 4% 90%  
78 5% 86%  
79 6% 81%  
80 7% 75%  
81 6% 68%  
82 7% 63%  
83 7% 55% Median
84 7% 49%  
85 6% 42%  
86 6% 36%  
87 6% 30%  
88 6% 24%  
89 4% 19%  
90 4% 15%  
91 3% 11%  
92 2% 8%  
93 2% 6%  
94 1.1% 4% Last Result
95 1.0% 3%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.1%  
98 0.2% 0.7%  
99 0.2% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0% 97%  
38 2% 97%  
39 2% 95%  
40 5% 93%  
41 6% 88%  
42 9% 82%  
43 9% 73%  
44 10% 64%  
45 13% 54% Median
46 8% 41%  
47 10% 33%  
48 5% 23%  
49 5% 18%  
50 4% 13%  
51 3% 9%  
52 2% 6%  
53 1.3% 4%  
54 1.2% 3%  
55 0.6% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.9%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.8%  
33 0.6% 99.5%  
34 1.0% 98.9%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96%  
37 5% 93%  
38 7% 89%  
39 7% 82%  
40 9% 75%  
41 10% 66%  
42 9% 55% Median
43 12% 46%  
44 7% 34%  
45 8% 27%  
46 5% 19% Last Result
47 5% 14%  
48 4% 9%  
49 2% 6%  
50 1.4% 3%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.5% 1.1%  
53 0.3% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 479 100% 469–489 466–493 464–501 459–518
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 457 100% 447–468 444–472 441–479 436–494
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 431 100% 423–444 418–449 416–457 414–468
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 392 100% 381–404 378–408 376–413 372–427
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 374 99.0% 363–386 360–389 357–394 352–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 355 52% 345–367 341–370 339–375 334–386
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 330 2% 320–343 317–348 315–352 311–360
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 317 0% 305–328 301–331 296–333 282–337
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 309 0% 297–320 295–324 293–328 289–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 290 0% 279–302 277–306 275–309 270–320
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 272 0% 262–283 259–287 256–290 251–297
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 225 0% 216–236 213–240 211–243 206–249
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 168 0% 159–179 156–182 142–184 128–189

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
453 0% 100%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0% 99.9%  
456 0.1% 99.9%  
457 0.1% 99.8%  
458 0.1% 99.7%  
459 0.2% 99.6%  
460 0.3% 99.4%  
461 0.3% 99.1%  
462 0.6% 98.9%  
463 0.7% 98%  
464 0.7% 98%  
465 0.9% 97%  
466 2% 96% Last Result
467 1.2% 94%  
468 2% 93%  
469 2% 91%  
470 2% 89%  
471 3% 86%  
472 3% 84%  
473 3% 80%  
474 5% 77%  
475 5% 72%  
476 3% 67%  
477 5% 63%  
478 5% 58%  
479 6% 53% Median
480 5% 47%  
481 5% 42%  
482 6% 38%  
483 3% 32%  
484 5% 28%  
485 2% 23%  
486 4% 21%  
487 2% 17%  
488 3% 14%  
489 2% 12%  
490 2% 10%  
491 1.5% 8%  
492 1.2% 7%  
493 0.9% 6%  
494 0.6% 5%  
495 0.5% 4%  
496 0.4% 4%  
497 0.2% 3%  
498 0.2% 3%  
499 0.1% 3%  
500 0.1% 3%  
501 0.1% 3%  
502 0.1% 2%  
503 0.1% 2%  
504 0.1% 2%  
505 0.1% 2%  
506 0.1% 2%  
507 0.1% 2%  
508 0.1% 2%  
509 0.1% 2%  
510 0.1% 2%  
511 0.1% 1.4%  
512 0.2% 1.3%  
513 0.2% 1.2%  
514 0.1% 0.9%  
515 0.1% 0.8%  
516 0.1% 0.8%  
517 0.1% 0.7%  
518 0.1% 0.6%  
519 0.1% 0.5%  
520 0.1% 0.4%  
521 0.1% 0.3%  
522 0% 0.2%  
523 0.1% 0.2%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0.1%  
527 0% 0.1%  
528 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.9%  
434 0.1% 99.8%  
435 0.2% 99.8%  
436 0.2% 99.6%  
437 0.2% 99.4%  
438 0.3% 99.2%  
439 0.4% 98.9%  
440 0.5% 98.5%  
441 0.5% 98%  
442 0.7% 97%  
443 1.3% 97%  
444 2% 95%  
445 2% 94%  
446 1.5% 92%  
447 2% 90%  
448 2% 88%  
449 2% 86%  
450 3% 84%  
451 4% 81%  
452 4% 77%  
453 5% 73%  
454 6% 68%  
455 8% 62%  
456 3% 54%  
457 3% 51%  
458 3% 49% Median
459 4% 45%  
460 4% 42%  
461 5% 37%  
462 8% 32%  
463 5% 24%  
464 3% 19%  
465 2% 16%  
466 2% 14%  
467 0.9% 12%  
468 1.3% 11%  
469 3% 10%  
470 1.0% 7%  
471 1.0% 6%  
472 0.7% 5%  
473 1.0% 5%  
474 0.3% 4%  
475 0.3% 3%  
476 0.2% 3%  
477 0.1% 3%  
478 0.1% 3%  
479 0.1% 3%  
480 0.1% 2%  
481 0.2% 2%  
482 0.2% 2%  
483 0.2% 2%  
484 0.1% 2%  
485 0.1% 2%  
486 0.1% 2%  
487 0.1% 1.4%  
488 0.1% 1.3%  
489 0.1% 1.2%  
490 0.2% 1.1%  
491 0.1% 0.9%  
492 0.1% 0.8%  
493 0.1% 0.7%  
494 0.1% 0.6%  
495 0.1% 0.4%  
496 0.1% 0.4%  
497 0% 0.3%  
498 0% 0.3%  
499 0.1% 0.2%  
500 0% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.1%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.9%  
411 0.1% 99.9%  
412 0.1% 99.8%  
413 0.1% 99.7%  
414 0.2% 99.6%  
415 0.6% 99.3%  
416 1.4% 98.8%  
417 1.4% 97%  
418 1.1% 96%  
419 0.9% 95%  
420 0.7% 94%  
421 1.3% 93%  
422 2% 92%  
423 3% 90%  
424 4% 88%  
425 3% 84%  
426 3% 80%  
427 2% 77%  
428 4% 75%  
429 6% 71%  
430 8% 65%  
431 9% 57% Median
432 8% 48%  
433 5% 40%  
434 2% 35%  
435 3% 33%  
436 2% 30%  
437 2% 27%  
438 2% 25%  
439 2% 23%  
440 2% 21%  
441 2% 19%  
442 2% 18%  
443 3% 15%  
444 3% 13%  
445 2% 10%  
446 1.1% 8%  
447 0.9% 7%  
448 0.4% 6%  
449 0.6% 6%  
450 0.5% 5%  
451 0.6% 4%  
452 0.4% 4%  
453 0.3% 3%  
454 0.2% 3%  
455 0.2% 3%  
456 0.2% 3%  
457 0.2% 3%  
458 0.1% 2%  
459 0.2% 2%  
460 0.1% 2%  
461 0.2% 2%  
462 0.3% 2%  
463 0.3% 1.5%  
464 0.2% 1.2%  
465 0.2% 1.0%  
466 0.1% 0.8%  
467 0.1% 0.7%  
468 0.1% 0.6%  
469 0.1% 0.5%  
470 0.1% 0.3%  
471 0% 0.2%  
472 0.1% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0.3% 99.6%  
373 0.3% 99.2%  
374 0.3% 98.9%  
375 0.6% 98.6%  
376 1.1% 98%  
377 0.8% 97%  
378 1.1% 96%  
379 2% 95%  
380 2% 93%  
381 2% 91%  
382 2% 89%  
383 3% 87%  
384 3% 83%  
385 4% 81%  
386 4% 77%  
387 2% 73%  
388 5% 71%  
389 5% 66%  
390 4% 61%  
391 6% 58% Median
392 6% 52%  
393 4% 46%  
394 4% 43%  
395 3% 38%  
396 5% 35%  
397 2% 30%  
398 5% 28%  
399 3% 23%  
400 2% 19%  
401 3% 17%  
402 3% 14%  
403 1.4% 12%  
404 2% 10%  
405 1.2% 9%  
406 1.2% 7%  
407 1.0% 6%  
408 0.7% 5%  
409 0.7% 5%  
410 0.4% 4%  
411 0.5% 3%  
412 0.4% 3%  
413 0.2% 3%  
414 0.2% 2%  
415 0.2% 2%  
416 0.2% 2%  
417 0.3% 2%  
418 0.1% 2%  
419 0.1% 1.4%  
420 0.1% 1.3% Last Result
421 0.1% 1.2%  
422 0.1% 1.1%  
423 0.2% 1.0%  
424 0.1% 0.8%  
425 0.1% 0.8%  
426 0.2% 0.7%  
427 0.1% 0.5%  
428 0.1% 0.5%  
429 0.1% 0.4%  
430 0% 0.3%  
431 0% 0.3%  
432 0% 0.2%  
433 0.1% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.2% 99.7%  
353 0.2% 99.5%  
354 0.3% 99.3%  
355 0.4% 99.0% Majority
356 0.5% 98.5%  
357 0.7% 98%  
358 0.6% 97%  
359 1.3% 97%  
360 1.0% 96%  
361 2% 95%  
362 2% 93%  
363 2% 91%  
364 2% 89%  
365 3% 87%  
366 3% 85%  
367 3% 82%  
368 5% 79%  
369 5% 74%  
370 4% 70%  
371 4% 66%  
372 5% 62%  
373 4% 57%  
374 4% 53%  
375 5% 49% Median
376 5% 44%  
377 3% 39%  
378 4% 36%  
379 5% 32%  
380 4% 27%  
381 3% 23%  
382 4% 21%  
383 2% 17%  
384 2% 15%  
385 2% 12%  
386 2% 10%  
387 0.9% 8%  
388 2% 7%  
389 1.1% 6%  
390 0.6% 5%  
391 0.5% 4%  
392 0.5% 4%  
393 0.4% 3%  
394 0.4% 3%  
395 0.2% 2%  
396 0.2% 2%  
397 0.2% 2%  
398 0.3% 2%  
399 0.2% 1.3%  
400 0.1% 1.1%  
401 0.1% 1.0%  
402 0.1% 0.9%  
403 0.1% 0.9%  
404 0.2% 0.8%  
405 0.1% 0.6%  
406 0% 0.5%  
407 0.1% 0.5%  
408 0.1% 0.4%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.2% 99.6%  
335 0.3% 99.4%  
336 0.4% 99.1%  
337 0.6% 98.7%  
338 0.5% 98%  
339 1.0% 98%  
340 0.8% 97%  
341 0.9% 96%  
342 2% 95%  
343 1.3% 93%  
344 2% 92%  
345 2% 90%  
346 2% 88%  
347 4% 86%  
348 2% 83%  
349 3% 80%  
350 4% 77%  
351 4% 73%  
352 5% 69%  
353 6% 63%  
354 6% 58%  
355 4% 52% Majority
356 4% 48% Median
357 5% 44%  
358 3% 39%  
359 5% 36%  
360 3% 31%  
361 3% 28%  
362 4% 25%  
363 3% 21%  
364 3% 18%  
365 2% 15%  
366 2% 12%  
367 2% 11%  
368 1.5% 8%  
369 1.0% 7%  
370 1.2% 6%  
371 0.7% 5%  
372 0.7% 4%  
373 0.4% 3%  
374 0.3% 3%  
375 0.4% 3%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0.4% 2%  
378 0.2% 2%  
379 0.2% 1.5%  
380 0.1% 1.2%  
381 0.2% 1.2%  
382 0.1% 1.0%  
383 0.1% 0.9%  
384 0.1% 0.7%  
385 0.1% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.6%  
387 0.1% 0.5%  
388 0% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
306 0% 100%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0.2% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.6%  
311 0.3% 99.5%  
312 0.3% 99.3%  
313 0.4% 98.9%  
314 0.6% 98%  
315 1.1% 98%  
316 0.7% 97%  
317 1.2% 96%  
318 2% 95%  
319 2% 93%  
320 2% 91%  
321 3% 89%  
322 3% 86%  
323 4% 84%  
324 4% 80%  
325 4% 76%  
326 5% 72%  
327 6% 67%  
328 4% 61%  
329 5% 57% Median
330 7% 52%  
331 3% 45%  
332 5% 42%  
333 4% 38%  
334 4% 34%  
335 3% 30%  
336 3% 27%  
337 2% 23%  
338 3% 21%  
339 2% 18%  
340 1.3% 16%  
341 2% 15%  
342 2% 13%  
343 1.5% 11%  
344 1.1% 9%  
345 2% 8%  
346 0.8% 7%  
347 0.9% 6%  
348 0.9% 5%  
349 0.5% 4%  
350 0.6% 4%  
351 0.5% 3%  
352 0.4% 3%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.2% 2%  
355 0.2% 2% Majority
356 0.2% 2%  
357 0.4% 1.3%  
358 0.2% 0.9%  
359 0.1% 0.7%  
360 0.1% 0.6%  
361 0.1% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0% 0.3%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.1% 99.5%  
283 0.2% 99.5%  
284 0.1% 99.3%  
285 0.1% 99.2%  
286 0.2% 99.2%  
287 0.1% 99.0%  
288 0.1% 98.9%  
289 0.1% 98.8% Last Result
290 0.1% 98.7%  
291 0.1% 98.6%  
292 0.3% 98%  
293 0.2% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0.2% 98%  
297 0.4% 97%  
298 0.5% 97%  
299 0.4% 97%  
300 0.7% 96%  
301 0.7% 95%  
302 1.0% 95%  
303 1.2% 94%  
304 1.2% 93%  
305 2% 91%  
306 1.4% 90%  
307 3% 88%  
308 3% 86%  
309 2% 83%  
310 3% 81%  
311 5% 77%  
312 2% 72%  
313 5% 70%  
314 3% 65%  
315 4% 62%  
316 4% 57%  
317 6% 54%  
318 6% 48% Median
319 4% 42%  
320 5% 39%  
321 5% 34%  
322 2% 29%  
323 4% 27%  
324 4% 23%  
325 3% 19%  
326 3% 17%  
327 2% 13%  
328 2% 11%  
329 2% 9%  
330 2% 7%  
331 1.1% 5%  
332 0.8% 4%  
333 1.1% 3%  
334 0.6% 2%  
335 0.3% 1.4%  
336 0.3% 1.1%  
337 0.3% 0.8%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.2% 99.5%  
290 0.2% 99.3%  
291 0.4% 99.1%  
292 0.6% 98.7%  
293 0.9% 98%  
294 1.3% 97%  
295 1.5% 96%  
296 3% 95%  
297 3% 92%  
298 3% 89%  
299 3% 86%  
300 2% 84%  
301 2% 82%  
302 2% 79%  
303 2% 77%  
304 2% 75%  
305 4% 73%  
306 3% 69%  
307 5% 66%  
308 5% 61% Median
309 8% 56%  
310 6% 48%  
311 7% 42%  
312 6% 36%  
313 4% 30%  
314 5% 26%  
315 3% 21%  
316 2% 17%  
317 2% 15%  
318 2% 13%  
319 1.3% 11%  
320 1.1% 10%  
321 1.2% 9%  
322 1.3% 8%  
323 0.9% 6%  
324 0.9% 6%  
325 0.7% 5%  
326 0.7% 4% Last Result
327 0.6% 3%  
328 0.5% 3%  
329 0.3% 2%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.2% 1.5%  
332 0.2% 1.3%  
333 0.1% 1.1%  
334 0.1% 0.9%  
335 0.1% 0.9%  
336 0.1% 0.8%  
337 0.1% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.2% 99.6%  
271 0.2% 99.4%  
272 0.2% 99.2%  
273 0.4% 98.9%  
274 0.6% 98.5%  
275 1.2% 98%  
276 2% 97%  
277 2% 95%  
278 1.4% 93%  
279 2% 92%  
280 2% 90%  
281 3% 87%  
282 3% 85%  
283 3% 82%  
284 3% 79%  
285 6% 76%  
286 4% 70%  
287 6% 66%  
288 4% 60%  
289 4% 56% Median
290 4% 51%  
291 4% 47%  
292 3% 43%  
293 4% 40%  
294 3% 36%  
295 4% 33%  
296 7% 29%  
297 3% 22%  
298 2% 20%  
299 2% 17%  
300 2% 15%  
301 2% 13%  
302 2% 11%  
303 1.3% 9%  
304 1.0% 8%  
305 0.9% 7%  
306 2% 6%  
307 0.9% 4%  
308 0.6% 3%  
309 0.3% 3%  
310 0.4% 2%  
311 0.4% 2%  
312 0.3% 2%  
313 0.2% 1.3%  
314 0.1% 1.1%  
315 0.1% 1.0%  
316 0.2% 0.9%  
317 0.1% 0.7%  
318 0.1% 0.6%  
319 0% 0.6%  
320 0.1% 0.5%  
321 0.1% 0.4%  
322 0.1% 0.3%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.2% 99.6%  
252 0.3% 99.5%  
253 0.2% 99.2%  
254 0.4% 99.0%  
255 0.4% 98.5%  
256 0.8% 98%  
257 0.9% 97%  
258 1.0% 96%  
259 1.4% 95%  
260 1.4% 94%  
261 2% 93%  
262 3% 90%  
263 2% 88%  
264 3% 86%  
265 3% 83%  
266 5% 80%  
267 4% 75%  
268 4% 71%  
269 4% 67%  
270 3% 62%  
271 5% 59%  
272 4% 54%  
273 6% 50% Median
274 5% 44%  
275 3% 39%  
276 5% 37%  
277 4% 31%  
278 3% 27%  
279 3% 23%  
280 3% 21%  
281 3% 17%  
282 3% 14%  
283 2% 12%  
284 2% 10%  
285 1.0% 8%  
286 1.4% 7%  
287 0.9% 5%  
288 1.1% 5%  
289 0.7% 3%  
290 0.5% 3%  
291 0.4% 2%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.3% 1.4%  
294 0.2% 1.1%  
295 0.2% 0.9%  
296 0.1% 0.7%  
297 0.2% 0.7%  
298 0% 0.4%  
299 0.1% 0.4%  
300 0.1% 0.3%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0.1% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100%  
203 0.1% 99.9%  
204 0.1% 99.9%  
205 0.1% 99.8%  
206 0.2% 99.6%  
207 0.2% 99.5%  
208 0.3% 99.3%  
209 0.4% 98.9%  
210 0.5% 98%  
211 0.9% 98%  
212 1.4% 97%  
213 1.3% 96%  
214 2% 94%  
215 2% 92%  
216 3% 90%  
217 2% 87%  
218 4% 85%  
219 3% 81%  
220 5% 79%  
221 4% 74%  
222 4% 70%  
223 6% 66%  
224 5% 60%  
225 6% 55% Median
226 5% 50%  
227 4% 44%  
228 6% 41%  
229 5% 35%  
230 4% 30%  
231 4% 26%  
232 4% 22%  
233 2% 19% Last Result
234 3% 16%  
235 2% 14%  
236 2% 12%  
237 2% 10%  
238 2% 8%  
239 1.0% 7%  
240 1.1% 6%  
241 0.9% 4%  
242 0.8% 3%  
243 0.4% 3%  
244 0.5% 2%  
245 0.3% 2%  
246 0.3% 1.4%  
247 0.3% 1.1%  
248 0.2% 0.8%  
249 0.1% 0.6%  
250 0.1% 0.4%  
251 0.1% 0.3%  
252 0.1% 0.3%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.1% 99.7%  
127 0.1% 99.6%  
128 0.2% 99.5%  
129 0.1% 99.3%  
130 0.2% 99.2%  
131 0.1% 99.0%  
132 0.3% 98.9%  
133 0% 98.6%  
134 0.2% 98.6%  
135 0.1% 98%  
136 0.2% 98%  
137 0.2% 98%  
138 0.1% 98%  
139 0.1% 98%  
140 0% 98%  
141 0.1% 98%  
142 0% 98%  
143 0% 97%  
144 0% 97%  
145 0% 97%  
146 0% 97%  
147 0% 97%  
148 0% 97%  
149 0.1% 97%  
150 0.1% 97%  
151 0.1% 97%  
152 0.2% 97%  
153 0.3% 97%  
154 0.5% 96%  
155 0.8% 96%  
156 0.9% 95%  
157 1.3% 94%  
158 2% 93%  
159 2% 91%  
160 4% 89%  
161 4% 86%  
162 3% 81%  
163 3% 78%  
164 6% 75%  
165 6% 68%  
166 6% 62%  
167 5% 56%  
168 5% 52% Median
169 5% 47%  
170 4% 42%  
171 5% 38%  
172 6% 33%  
173 3% 28%  
174 3% 25%  
175 3% 22%  
176 3% 19%  
177 3% 16%  
178 2% 13%  
179 2% 11%  
180 2% 8%  
181 1.1% 7%  
182 1.2% 6%  
183 1.2% 4%  
184 0.8% 3%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.5% 2%  
187 0.4% 1.3%  
188 0.3% 0.9%  
189 0.2% 0.6%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations