Opinion Poll by Kantar, 9–15 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.9% 20.6–23.4% 20.2–23.8% 19.9–24.2% 19.2–24.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.7–21.4% 18.3–21.9% 18.0–22.2% 17.4–22.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.0% 14.5–19.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.0–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.4–13.8% 10.0–14.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.4% 8.5–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.2% 4.1–6.4% 3.8–6.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 167 156–177 153–181 151–183 146–189
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 152 142–163 139–166 137–168 132–173
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 129 120–139 117–142 115–144 111–149
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 91 83–100 81–103 79–105 76–109
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 68–84 66–87 65–88 61–93
Die Linke 69 54 47–60 45–62 44–64 41–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 34–45 32–47 31–48 29–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.7%  
146 0.2% 99.6%  
147 0.2% 99.4%  
148 0.3% 99.2%  
149 0.4% 98.8%  
150 0.5% 98%  
151 0.8% 98%  
152 0.9% 97%  
153 1.3% 96%  
154 2% 95%  
155 1.4% 93%  
156 2% 92%  
157 2% 89%  
158 3% 87%  
159 3% 84%  
160 4% 80%  
161 3% 77%  
162 4% 74%  
163 5% 70%  
164 5% 65%  
165 5% 60%  
166 4% 55%  
167 5% 51% Median
168 5% 46%  
169 3% 41%  
170 4% 38%  
171 6% 33%  
172 4% 27%  
173 3% 23%  
174 3% 20%  
175 2% 17%  
176 3% 15%  
177 2% 12%  
178 2% 10%  
179 2% 8%  
180 1.2% 6%  
181 1.2% 5%  
182 0.8% 4%  
183 0.8% 3%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.4% 2%  
186 0.4% 1.3%  
187 0.2% 1.0%  
188 0.2% 0.7%  
189 0.2% 0.5%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.8%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.2% 99.6%  
133 0.3% 99.4%  
134 0.4% 99.2%  
135 0.5% 98.8%  
136 0.6% 98%  
137 0.6% 98%  
138 0.8% 97%  
139 1.3% 96%  
140 1.4% 95%  
141 2% 94%  
142 2% 91%  
143 3% 89%  
144 3% 86%  
145 3% 83%  
146 4% 80%  
147 4% 76%  
148 4% 72%  
149 5% 68%  
150 6% 63%  
151 5% 58%  
152 4% 53% Median
153 4% 49%  
154 5% 45%  
155 5% 41%  
156 6% 36%  
157 4% 30%  
158 4% 25%  
159 3% 21%  
160 3% 18%  
161 2% 15%  
162 2% 13%  
163 2% 11%  
164 2% 8%  
165 2% 7%  
166 1.4% 5%  
167 0.8% 4%  
168 0.7% 3%  
169 0.5% 2%  
170 0.5% 2%  
171 0.3% 1.3%  
172 0.3% 1.0%  
173 0.2% 0.7%  
174 0.1% 0.5%  
175 0.1% 0.3%  
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0% 0.2%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.7%  
111 0.3% 99.6%  
112 0.4% 99.3%  
113 0.4% 98.9%  
114 0.5% 98%  
115 1.0% 98%  
116 0.9% 97%  
117 2% 96%  
118 2% 94%  
119 2% 92%  
120 3% 90%  
121 2% 87%  
122 3% 85%  
123 4% 82%  
124 4% 78%  
125 5% 74%  
126 4% 69%  
127 4% 65%  
128 6% 61%  
129 7% 55% Median
130 6% 48%  
131 5% 42%  
132 5% 36%  
133 4% 32%  
134 4% 28%  
135 3% 23%  
136 3% 20%  
137 2% 17%  
138 3% 14%  
139 2% 12%  
140 2% 10%  
141 2% 8%  
142 1.3% 6%  
143 1.3% 4%  
144 0.7% 3%  
145 0.6% 2%  
146 0.4% 2%  
147 0.3% 1.1%  
148 0.2% 0.8%  
149 0.1% 0.6%  
150 0.1% 0.5%  
151 0.1% 0.3%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.3% 99.6%  
77 0.5% 99.3%  
78 0.7% 98.8%  
79 0.9% 98%  
80 1.2% 97% Last Result
81 1.5% 96%  
82 2% 94%  
83 2% 92%  
84 4% 90%  
85 4% 86%  
86 3% 82%  
87 4% 79%  
88 4% 74%  
89 7% 70%  
90 7% 63%  
91 8% 57% Median
92 4% 49%  
93 6% 45%  
94 5% 38%  
95 5% 33%  
96 6% 28%  
97 4% 23%  
98 4% 19%  
99 4% 15%  
100 2% 11%  
101 2% 9%  
102 2% 7%  
103 2% 6%  
104 1.1% 4%  
105 0.9% 3%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 0.4% 1.4%  
108 0.2% 1.0%  
109 0.3% 0.7%  
110 0.2% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 0.3% 99.4%  
63 0.6% 99.2%  
64 0.9% 98.6%  
65 1.0% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 3% 93%  
69 3% 90%  
70 4% 87%  
71 5% 83%  
72 6% 78%  
73 6% 72%  
74 7% 67%  
75 6% 59%  
76 6% 53% Median
77 6% 47%  
78 7% 42%  
79 5% 35%  
80 5% 29%  
81 6% 24%  
82 3% 18%  
83 4% 15%  
84 2% 11%  
85 2% 9%  
86 2% 7%  
87 1.3% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 0.3% 1.1%  
92 0.3% 0.8%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.7%  
42 0.5% 99.4%  
43 0.9% 98.9%  
44 1.4% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 94%  
47 3% 92%  
48 4% 89%  
49 7% 84%  
50 6% 78%  
51 7% 71%  
52 7% 64%  
53 7% 58%  
54 8% 50% Median
55 8% 42%  
56 6% 34%  
57 6% 28%  
58 5% 22%  
59 4% 17%  
60 3% 13%  
61 3% 9%  
62 2% 7%  
63 1.5% 5%  
64 1.1% 3%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.5% 1.5%  
67 0.3% 1.0%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 0.5% 99.6%  
30 0.9% 99.0%  
31 1.5% 98%  
32 3% 97%  
33 4% 94%  
34 5% 90%  
35 7% 85%  
36 7% 79%  
37 8% 71%  
38 9% 63%  
39 9% 54% Median
40 8% 45%  
41 8% 37%  
42 7% 29%  
43 5% 22%  
44 4% 16%  
45 4% 12%  
46 3% 8% Last Result
47 2% 5%  
48 1.3% 4%  
49 0.9% 2%  
50 0.5% 1.3%  
51 0.3% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 487 100% 476–499 472–502 470–505 464–511
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 450 100% 438–462 434–465 432–468 426–474
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 427 100% 415–439 411–443 408–446 402–452
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 374 97% 361–386 358–390 354–393 348–399
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 373 97% 361–386 357–389 354–392 348–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 358 64% 346–371 342–374 339–377 333–384
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 335 3% 323–348 319–351 316–355 310–361
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 335 2% 323–348 319–351 316–354 310–361
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 297 0% 286–311 282–313 278–317 273–323
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 282 0% 270–294 267–298 263–301 258–307
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 282 0% 269–294 266–297 263–301 257–307
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 221 0% 209–233 206–236 203–239 198–245
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 183 0% 172–194 169–197 166–199 161–205

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
457 0% 100%  
458 0% 99.9%  
459 0% 99.9%  
460 0% 99.9%  
461 0.1% 99.8%  
462 0.1% 99.8%  
463 0.1% 99.7%  
464 0.2% 99.6%  
465 0.3% 99.4%  
466 0.3% 99.1% Last Result
467 0.3% 98.9%  
468 0.4% 98.6%  
469 0.5% 98%  
470 0.8% 98%  
471 1.0% 97%  
472 1.0% 96%  
473 1.3% 95%  
474 2% 94%  
475 2% 92%  
476 2% 91%  
477 2% 89%  
478 3% 87%  
479 3% 84%  
480 3% 81%  
481 4% 79%  
482 5% 75%  
483 3% 70%  
484 4% 67%  
485 4% 63%  
486 4% 59%  
487 5% 55% Median
488 4% 50%  
489 5% 46%  
490 4% 42%  
491 4% 38%  
492 5% 33%  
493 3% 29%  
494 4% 25%  
495 3% 22%  
496 3% 19%  
497 2% 16%  
498 2% 14%  
499 2% 11%  
500 2% 9%  
501 1.0% 7%  
502 1.3% 6%  
503 0.7% 5%  
504 1.2% 4%  
505 0.7% 3%  
506 0.5% 2%  
507 0.4% 2%  
508 0.4% 1.3%  
509 0.2% 0.9%  
510 0.2% 0.8%  
511 0.2% 0.6%  
512 0.1% 0.4%  
513 0.1% 0.3%  
514 0.1% 0.2%  
515 0% 0.2%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.8%  
424 0.1% 99.7%  
425 0.1% 99.6%  
426 0.2% 99.5%  
427 0.3% 99.3%  
428 0.2% 99.1%  
429 0.4% 98.9%  
430 0.5% 98.5%  
431 0.5% 98%  
432 0.8% 98%  
433 0.5% 97%  
434 1.3% 96%  
435 1.4% 95%  
436 1.3% 93%  
437 1.4% 92%  
438 2% 91%  
439 3% 89%  
440 2% 86%  
441 3% 84%  
442 2% 81%  
443 3% 79%  
444 5% 75%  
445 3% 70%  
446 3% 67%  
447 4% 64%  
448 5% 61%  
449 5% 56% Median
450 3% 51%  
451 4% 48%  
452 3% 44%  
453 6% 41%  
454 3% 36%  
455 4% 32%  
456 3% 28%  
457 5% 25%  
458 3% 21%  
459 2% 17%  
460 2% 16%  
461 2% 14%  
462 2% 12%  
463 2% 9%  
464 1.4% 8%  
465 1.2% 6%  
466 1.0% 5%  
467 1.0% 4%  
468 0.5% 3%  
469 0.4% 2%  
470 0.4% 2%  
471 0.5% 2%  
472 0.3% 1.0%  
473 0.1% 0.7%  
474 0.1% 0.6%  
475 0.1% 0.5%  
476 0.1% 0.3%  
477 0% 0.2%  
478 0% 0.2%  
479 0% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0.1% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0.1% 99.7%  
402 0.1% 99.6%  
403 0.2% 99.5%  
404 0.2% 99.3%  
405 0.3% 99.1%  
406 0.5% 98.8%  
407 0.7% 98%  
408 0.4% 98%  
409 0.8% 97%  
410 1.0% 96%  
411 0.8% 95%  
412 0.9% 95%  
413 1.3% 94%  
414 2% 92%  
415 2% 90%  
416 1.5% 88%  
417 3% 87%  
418 3% 84%  
419 3% 80%  
420 2% 78%  
421 5% 76%  
422 4% 70%  
423 3% 67%  
424 4% 63%  
425 4% 60%  
426 5% 56% Median
427 2% 51%  
428 4% 48%  
429 4% 45%  
430 5% 41%  
431 4% 36%  
432 3% 32%  
433 5% 29%  
434 4% 24%  
435 2% 21%  
436 3% 19%  
437 3% 16%  
438 2% 13%  
439 1.1% 11%  
440 2% 10%  
441 2% 8%  
442 0.9% 6%  
443 0.9% 5%  
444 1.0% 4%  
445 0.7% 3%  
446 0.5% 3%  
447 0.5% 2%  
448 0.3% 2%  
449 0.3% 1.2%  
450 0.2% 0.9%  
451 0.2% 0.7%  
452 0.1% 0.5%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.7%  
348 0.1% 99.6%  
349 0.1% 99.5%  
350 0.2% 99.3%  
351 0.3% 99.1%  
352 0.4% 98.8%  
353 0.5% 98%  
354 0.5% 98%  
355 0.5% 97% Majority
356 0.7% 97%  
357 1.0% 96%  
358 0.7% 95%  
359 1.3% 95%  
360 2% 93%  
361 2% 92%  
362 1.4% 90%  
363 2% 88%  
364 2% 86%  
365 3% 84%  
366 3% 81%  
367 4% 78%  
368 3% 74%  
369 4% 71%  
370 4% 67%  
371 5% 63%  
372 4% 58%  
373 4% 54% Median
374 4% 51%  
375 5% 47%  
376 3% 42%  
377 4% 39%  
378 4% 35%  
379 3% 31%  
380 2% 28%  
381 4% 26%  
382 3% 22%  
383 2% 19%  
384 4% 17%  
385 1.4% 14%  
386 3% 12%  
387 1.5% 10%  
388 1.5% 8%  
389 2% 7%  
390 0.8% 5%  
391 1.1% 4%  
392 0.7% 3%  
393 0.4% 3%  
394 0.6% 2%  
395 0.4% 2%  
396 0.3% 1.2%  
397 0.2% 1.0%  
398 0.1% 0.7%  
399 0.1% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.7%  
348 0.1% 99.6%  
349 0.2% 99.5%  
350 0.3% 99.3%  
351 0.3% 99.0%  
352 0.4% 98.8%  
353 0.5% 98%  
354 0.9% 98%  
355 0.6% 97% Majority
356 1.0% 96%  
357 1.0% 96%  
358 0.9% 94%  
359 1.2% 94%  
360 2% 92%  
361 2% 91%  
362 1.4% 89%  
363 2% 87%  
364 3% 85%  
365 2% 82%  
366 3% 80%  
367 5% 77%  
368 4% 73%  
369 3% 69%  
370 4% 66%  
371 4% 61%  
372 4% 57% Median
373 4% 53%  
374 4% 48%  
375 4% 44%  
376 3% 40%  
377 4% 38%  
378 4% 33%  
379 3% 29%  
380 3% 26%  
381 3% 23%  
382 2% 20%  
383 3% 18%  
384 3% 15%  
385 2% 13%  
386 2% 11%  
387 1.5% 9%  
388 1.2% 7%  
389 1.2% 6%  
390 0.9% 5%  
391 0.9% 4%  
392 0.7% 3%  
393 0.4% 2%  
394 0.4% 2%  
395 0.3% 1.5%  
396 0.3% 1.2%  
397 0.2% 0.9%  
398 0.2% 0.7%  
399 0.1% 0.5%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0.1% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.8%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.2% 99.6%  
334 0.1% 99.4%  
335 0.2% 99.3%  
336 0.4% 99.1%  
337 0.3% 98.7%  
338 0.6% 98%  
339 0.6% 98%  
340 0.6% 97%  
341 1.1% 97%  
342 0.9% 96%  
343 1.4% 95%  
344 2% 93%  
345 1.3% 92%  
346 2% 90%  
347 1.5% 88%  
348 2% 86%  
349 3% 84%  
350 2% 81%  
351 5% 79%  
352 2% 75%  
353 5% 72%  
354 4% 68%  
355 2% 64% Majority
356 6% 62%  
357 2% 56%  
358 4% 53% Median
359 6% 50%  
360 2% 44%  
361 4% 42%  
362 5% 38%  
363 3% 33%  
364 5% 30%  
365 2% 25%  
366 4% 23%  
367 3% 19%  
368 2% 17%  
369 3% 15%  
370 0.9% 12%  
371 2% 12%  
372 1.4% 9%  
373 2% 8%  
374 2% 6%  
375 0.5% 5%  
376 0.9% 4%  
377 0.9% 3%  
378 0.2% 2%  
379 0.7% 2%  
380 0.2% 1.4%  
381 0.3% 1.2%  
382 0.2% 0.9%  
383 0.1% 0.7%  
384 0.2% 0.6%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0.1% 99.6%  
311 0.1% 99.4%  
312 0.2% 99.3%  
313 0.3% 99.0%  
314 0.4% 98.8%  
315 0.6% 98%  
316 0.4% 98%  
317 0.7% 97%  
318 1.1% 97%  
319 0.8% 96%  
320 2% 95%  
321 1.5% 93%  
322 1.5% 92%  
323 3% 90%  
324 1.4% 88%  
325 4% 86%  
326 2% 83%  
327 3% 81%  
328 4% 78%  
329 2% 74%  
330 3% 72%  
331 4% 69%  
332 4% 65%  
333 3% 61%  
334 5% 58%  
335 4% 53% Median
336 4% 49%  
337 4% 46%  
338 5% 42%  
339 4% 37%  
340 4% 33%  
341 3% 29%  
342 4% 26%  
343 3% 22%  
344 3% 19%  
345 2% 16%  
346 2% 14%  
347 1.4% 12%  
348 2% 10%  
349 2% 8%  
350 1.3% 7%  
351 0.7% 5%  
352 1.0% 5%  
353 0.7% 4%  
354 0.5% 3%  
355 0.5% 3% Majority
356 0.5% 2%  
357 0.4% 2%  
358 0.3% 1.2%  
359 0.2% 0.9%  
360 0.1% 0.7%  
361 0.1% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0.2% 99.6%  
311 0.2% 99.4%  
312 0.2% 99.2%  
313 0.2% 99.0%  
314 0.3% 98.8%  
315 0.6% 98%  
316 0.7% 98%  
317 0.6% 97%  
318 1.3% 97%  
319 0.7% 95%  
320 1.4% 95%  
321 0.8% 93%  
322 2% 92%  
323 2% 91%  
324 2% 88%  
325 2% 86%  
326 2% 84%  
327 3% 82%  
328 2% 78%  
329 4% 76%  
330 4% 72%  
331 4% 69%  
332 4% 65%  
333 4% 61%  
334 4% 57%  
335 4% 53% Median
336 4% 49%  
337 6% 46%  
338 3% 40%  
339 4% 37%  
340 3% 33%  
341 3% 29%  
342 4% 26%  
343 3% 22%  
344 3% 19%  
345 2% 16%  
346 2% 14%  
347 2% 12%  
348 2% 10%  
349 2% 8%  
350 1.3% 7%  
351 0.8% 6%  
352 0.7% 5%  
353 0.8% 4%  
354 0.9% 3%  
355 0.5% 2% Majority
356 0.4% 2%  
357 0.3% 1.4%  
358 0.2% 1.1%  
359 0.2% 0.9%  
360 0.2% 0.7%  
361 0.2% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.2% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.5%  
274 0.2% 99.4%  
275 0.2% 99.2%  
276 0.4% 99.0%  
277 0.5% 98.6%  
278 0.7% 98%  
279 0.8% 97%  
280 0.6% 97%  
281 0.7% 96%  
282 0.9% 95%  
283 1.0% 94%  
284 1.0% 93%  
285 2% 92%  
286 3% 91%  
287 3% 88%  
288 2% 85%  
289 4% 83%  
290 3% 79%  
291 2% 76%  
292 4% 74%  
293 4% 70%  
294 5% 66%  
295 4% 61%  
296 3% 57%  
297 4% 53% Median
298 2% 49%  
299 3% 47%  
300 4% 43%  
301 5% 39%  
302 2% 34%  
303 5% 32%  
304 4% 27%  
305 3% 23%  
306 3% 20%  
307 2% 17%  
308 2% 16%  
309 2% 14%  
310 2% 12%  
311 3% 11%  
312 2% 8%  
313 1.1% 6%  
314 1.0% 5%  
315 0.5% 4%  
316 0.7% 3%  
317 0.7% 3%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.4% 1.5%  
320 0.2% 1.1%  
321 0.2% 0.9%  
322 0.1% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.2% 99.5%  
259 0.3% 99.4%  
260 0.2% 99.1%  
261 0.4% 98.9%  
262 0.4% 98.5%  
263 0.7% 98%  
264 0.6% 97%  
265 0.9% 97%  
266 0.9% 96%  
267 1.1% 95%  
268 2% 94%  
269 2% 92%  
270 2% 91%  
271 2% 89%  
272 2% 86%  
273 2% 84%  
274 4% 82%  
275 3% 78%  
276 3% 75%  
277 3% 72%  
278 4% 68%  
279 4% 64%  
280 4% 60%  
281 4% 57%  
282 4% 52% Median
283 4% 48%  
284 4% 45%  
285 3% 40%  
286 4% 37%  
287 4% 32%  
288 4% 29%  
289 3% 25%  
290 2% 22%  
291 3% 19%  
292 3% 16%  
293 2% 13%  
294 2% 11%  
295 2% 10%  
296 1.0% 8%  
297 1.0% 7%  
298 1.0% 6%  
299 1.3% 5%  
300 0.6% 3%  
301 0.5% 3%  
302 0.6% 2%  
303 0.3% 2%  
304 0.4% 1.3%  
305 0.2% 1.0%  
306 0.2% 0.8%  
307 0.2% 0.6%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.3%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.7%  
257 0.2% 99.6%  
258 0.2% 99.5%  
259 0.3% 99.3%  
260 0.2% 99.0%  
261 0.4% 98.8%  
262 0.4% 98%  
263 0.7% 98%  
264 0.9% 97%  
265 0.9% 96%  
266 1.3% 96%  
267 1.2% 94%  
268 1.5% 93%  
269 2% 92%  
270 2% 90%  
271 2% 87%  
272 3% 85%  
273 2% 82%  
274 3% 80%  
275 4% 77%  
276 4% 73%  
277 2% 69%  
278 3% 67%  
279 4% 64%  
280 4% 60%  
281 3% 55% Median
282 5% 52%  
283 4% 47%  
284 5% 43%  
285 4% 39%  
286 3% 34%  
287 4% 31%  
288 4% 27%  
289 4% 23%  
290 3% 20%  
291 3% 17%  
292 2% 14%  
293 2% 12%  
294 1.4% 10%  
295 2% 9%  
296 1.0% 7%  
297 1.1% 6%  
298 0.6% 5%  
299 0.6% 4%  
300 0.9% 3%  
301 0.5% 3%  
302 0.5% 2%  
303 0.3% 2%  
304 0.3% 1.2%  
305 0.2% 1.0%  
306 0.2% 0.8%  
307 0.1% 0.5%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.1% 99.7%  
198 0.2% 99.6%  
199 0.2% 99.4%  
200 0.4% 99.2%  
201 0.3% 98.9%  
202 0.8% 98.6%  
203 0.5% 98%  
204 0.7% 97%  
205 1.0% 97%  
206 0.7% 96%  
207 1.0% 95%  
208 2% 94%  
209 2% 92%  
210 2% 90%  
211 3% 88%  
212 3% 85%  
213 4% 82%  
214 3% 79%  
215 3% 76%  
216 3% 73%  
217 3% 70%  
218 7% 67%  
219 4% 60%  
220 5% 56% Median
221 6% 52%  
222 3% 45%  
223 5% 43%  
224 3% 38%  
225 4% 35%  
226 3% 31%  
227 4% 28%  
228 4% 24%  
229 3% 20%  
230 3% 17%  
231 2% 15%  
232 3% 13%  
233 1.2% 10% Last Result
234 2% 9%  
235 1.1% 7%  
236 1.4% 6%  
237 1.1% 5%  
238 0.8% 3%  
239 0.6% 3%  
240 0.5% 2%  
241 0.4% 2%  
242 0.2% 1.2%  
243 0.3% 0.9%  
244 0.2% 0.7%  
245 0.1% 0.5%  
246 0.1% 0.4%  
247 0.1% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.8%  
160 0.1% 99.7%  
161 0.1% 99.6%  
162 0.2% 99.5%  
163 0.4% 99.2%  
164 0.3% 98.9%  
165 0.4% 98.6%  
166 0.7% 98%  
167 1.0% 97%  
168 0.8% 96%  
169 1.4% 96%  
170 1.3% 94%  
171 2% 93%  
172 2% 91%  
173 3% 89%  
174 2% 86%  
175 4% 83%  
176 3% 79%  
177 3% 77%  
178 3% 73%  
179 5% 70%  
180 4% 65%  
181 3% 61%  
182 5% 57%  
183 6% 52% Median
184 5% 46%  
185 5% 42%  
186 3% 37%  
187 5% 34%  
188 4% 29%  
189 3% 25%  
190 4% 22%  
191 2% 19%  
192 3% 17%  
193 2% 13%  
194 3% 11%  
195 1.3% 8%  
196 2% 7%  
197 0.7% 5%  
198 1.4% 5%  
199 0.6% 3%  
200 0.5% 2%  
201 0.4% 2%  
202 0.4% 2%  
203 0.3% 1.2%  
204 0.2% 0.9%  
205 0.2% 0.7%  
206 0.1% 0.5%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations