Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 14–18 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.4–24.2% 21.0–24.6% 20.7–25.0% 20.1–25.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.7–21.4% 18.3–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.4–22.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.6% 14.2–17.9% 13.7–18.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.6–14.5% 11.4–14.8% 10.9–15.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.1–13.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.6–6.1% 4.4–6.3% 4.2–6.5% 3.9–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 171 162–182 158–186 156–188 151–195
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 150 141–161 138–164 136–166 131–172
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 111–130 109–133 108–135 103–142
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 98 90–107 87–109 86–112 82–116
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 76–91 73–93 72–95 68–100
Die Linke 69 46 40–52 39–54 38–55 0–57
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 35–46 33–47 32–49 30–52

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0.2% 99.6%  
152 0.2% 99.4%  
153 0.2% 99.2%  
154 0.3% 99.0%  
155 0.7% 98.7%  
156 0.8% 98%  
157 1.2% 97%  
158 2% 96%  
159 1.3% 94%  
160 1.3% 93%  
161 1.2% 92%  
162 3% 91%  
163 3% 88%  
164 4% 85%  
165 6% 82%  
166 3% 76%  
167 4% 73%  
168 2% 68%  
169 5% 66%  
170 5% 61%  
171 8% 56% Median
172 5% 48%  
173 6% 43%  
174 3% 37%  
175 3% 34%  
176 2% 31%  
177 5% 29%  
178 4% 25%  
179 5% 20%  
180 3% 16%  
181 2% 12%  
182 1.4% 11%  
183 1.1% 9%  
184 1.2% 8%  
185 1.3% 7%  
186 2% 6%  
187 1.2% 4%  
188 0.8% 3%  
189 0.4% 2%  
190 0.2% 2%  
191 0.2% 1.4%  
192 0.2% 1.2%  
193 0.3% 1.0%  
194 0.2% 0.7%  
195 0.2% 0.5%  
196 0.1% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.2% Last Result
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.8%  
130 0.1% 99.8%  
131 0.2% 99.7%  
132 0.2% 99.5%  
133 0.5% 99.2%  
134 0.4% 98.8%  
135 0.7% 98%  
136 0.7% 98%  
137 1.2% 97%  
138 2% 96%  
139 2% 94%  
140 2% 93%  
141 2% 90%  
142 3% 89%  
143 3% 85%  
144 3% 82%  
145 5% 79%  
146 5% 74%  
147 5% 69%  
148 3% 64%  
149 5% 61%  
150 6% 55% Median
151 5% 50%  
152 5% 45%  
153 4% 40%  
154 6% 36%  
155 3% 30%  
156 4% 26%  
157 4% 22%  
158 3% 18%  
159 3% 16%  
160 2% 13%  
161 3% 11%  
162 2% 8%  
163 1.0% 7%  
164 1.3% 6%  
165 1.0% 4%  
166 0.8% 3%  
167 0.5% 2%  
168 0.5% 2%  
169 0.4% 1.5%  
170 0.2% 1.0%  
171 0.2% 0.8%  
172 0.1% 0.6%  
173 0.1% 0.5%  
174 0.1% 0.3%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.3% 99.6%  
104 0.2% 99.3%  
105 0.5% 99.1%  
106 0.5% 98.7%  
107 0.5% 98%  
108 2% 98%  
109 0.8% 96%  
110 3% 95%  
111 3% 92%  
112 1.5% 89%  
113 4% 87%  
114 2% 83%  
115 4% 81%  
116 4% 77%  
117 3% 73%  
118 10% 70%  
119 3% 60%  
120 9% 56% Median
121 7% 48%  
122 3% 41%  
123 6% 38%  
124 2% 32%  
125 5% 30%  
126 3% 25%  
127 3% 22%  
128 7% 19%  
129 1.0% 12%  
130 4% 11%  
131 2% 7%  
132 0.8% 6%  
133 1.2% 5%  
134 0.5% 4%  
135 0.8% 3%  
136 0.3% 2%  
137 0.5% 2%  
138 0.6% 2%  
139 0.1% 1.1%  
140 0.2% 0.9%  
141 0.1% 0.7%  
142 0.1% 0.5%  
143 0.1% 0.4%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.2% 99.6%  
83 0.5% 99.4%  
84 0.3% 98.9%  
85 1.0% 98.5%  
86 0.9% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 2% 95%  
89 2% 93%  
90 3% 91%  
91 3% 88%  
92 4% 85%  
93 4% 81%  
94 6% 77%  
95 4% 70%  
96 6% 66%  
97 6% 60%  
98 6% 54% Median
99 7% 48%  
100 4% 41%  
101 7% 37%  
102 3% 30%  
103 7% 27%  
104 3% 20%  
105 5% 17%  
106 3% 13%  
107 2% 10%  
108 2% 8%  
109 1.2% 6%  
110 1.4% 5%  
111 0.6% 3%  
112 0.9% 3%  
113 0.4% 2%  
114 0.4% 1.3%  
115 0.3% 0.9%  
116 0.2% 0.6%  
117 0.1% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.6%  
69 0.4% 99.4%  
70 0.6% 99.0%  
71 0.8% 98%  
72 2% 98%  
73 1.2% 96%  
74 2% 95%  
75 2% 93%  
76 3% 90%  
77 5% 87%  
78 4% 83%  
79 5% 78%  
80 6% 73%  
81 7% 67%  
82 6% 60%  
83 7% 54% Median
84 6% 47%  
85 7% 41%  
86 7% 34%  
87 5% 27%  
88 4% 22%  
89 3% 18%  
90 4% 14%  
91 2% 11%  
92 2% 9%  
93 2% 6%  
94 1.5% 5% Last Result
95 0.9% 3%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.2%  
99 0.2% 0.9%  
100 0.2% 0.6%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0% 98%  
38 2% 98%  
39 5% 96%  
40 9% 91%  
41 9% 83%  
42 6% 74%  
43 3% 68%  
44 2% 65%  
45 5% 62%  
46 10% 57% Median
47 14% 47%  
48 12% 33%  
49 7% 21%  
50 3% 14%  
51 1.2% 11%  
52 2% 10%  
53 2% 9%  
54 3% 6%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.7%  
58 0.1% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.5% 99.6%  
31 0.9% 99.1%  
32 2% 98%  
33 3% 97%  
34 4% 94%  
35 5% 90%  
36 6% 85%  
37 8% 78%  
38 10% 71%  
39 7% 61%  
40 9% 54% Median
41 10% 44%  
42 7% 34%  
43 7% 28%  
44 5% 20%  
45 4% 15%  
46 4% 11% Last Result
47 3% 7%  
48 2% 5%  
49 1.2% 3%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.4% 1.1%  
52 0.3% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 482 100% 472–494 468–499 465–505 460–523
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 460 100% 448–472 445–476 443–480 437–502
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 430 100% 418–443 415–447 412–452 406–467
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 393 100% 381–405 377–410 374–414 368–427
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 369 94% 357–382 354–386 350–391 345–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 362 80% 350–375 347–379 344–383 338–396
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 332 2% 320–345 316–349 314–353 308–364
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 316 0% 304–328 299–332 295–335 282–341
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 309 0% 297–322 294–326 292–330 285–340
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 294 0% 283–307 279–311 276–315 271–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 259–283 256–287 253–291 248–299
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 219 0% 207–230 204–234 202–237 197–245
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 166 0% 155–176 151–179 147–182 120–187

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
453 0% 100%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0% 99.9%  
456 0.1% 99.9%  
457 0.1% 99.8%  
458 0.1% 99.7%  
459 0.1% 99.6%  
460 0.3% 99.5%  
461 0.2% 99.3%  
462 0.3% 99.0%  
463 0.4% 98.7%  
464 0.6% 98%  
465 0.5% 98%  
466 0.6% 97% Last Result
467 1.0% 97%  
468 1.2% 96%  
469 0.7% 94%  
470 2% 94%  
471 2% 92%  
472 2% 90%  
473 3% 88%  
474 2% 85%  
475 3% 83%  
476 4% 81%  
477 5% 76%  
478 3% 71%  
479 3% 67%  
480 6% 64%  
481 5% 58% Median
482 4% 53%  
483 4% 49%  
484 5% 45%  
485 4% 39%  
486 4% 36%  
487 5% 32%  
488 3% 27%  
489 4% 24%  
490 2% 20%  
491 2% 18%  
492 2% 16%  
493 2% 14%  
494 2% 12%  
495 1.3% 10%  
496 0.9% 8%  
497 1.1% 7%  
498 0.9% 6%  
499 0.6% 5%  
500 0.8% 5%  
501 0.4% 4%  
502 0.3% 3%  
503 0.3% 3%  
504 0.3% 3%  
505 0.1% 3%  
506 0.2% 2%  
507 0.1% 2%  
508 0.2% 2%  
509 0.1% 2%  
510 0.1% 2%  
511 0.1% 2%  
512 0.1% 2%  
513 0.1% 1.5%  
514 0.1% 1.4%  
515 0.2% 1.3%  
516 0.1% 1.1%  
517 0.1% 1.0%  
518 0.1% 0.9%  
519 0% 0.8%  
520 0.1% 0.7%  
521 0.1% 0.6%  
522 0.1% 0.6%  
523 0.1% 0.5%  
524 0% 0.4%  
525 0.1% 0.4%  
526 0% 0.3%  
527 0% 0.3%  
528 0% 0.2%  
529 0.1% 0.2%  
530 0% 0.1%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.9%  
433 0% 99.9%  
434 0.1% 99.8%  
435 0.1% 99.8%  
436 0.1% 99.7%  
437 0.2% 99.5%  
438 0.3% 99.3%  
439 0.3% 99.0%  
440 0.3% 98.7%  
441 0.3% 98%  
442 0.6% 98%  
443 0.5% 98%  
444 1.3% 97%  
445 0.9% 96%  
446 1.1% 95%  
447 2% 94%  
448 3% 92%  
449 1.2% 89%  
450 2% 88%  
451 2% 86%  
452 4% 84%  
453 3% 81%  
454 4% 78%  
455 4% 74%  
456 5% 70%  
457 4% 64%  
458 3% 61%  
459 6% 58% Median
460 3% 52%  
461 5% 49%  
462 3% 44%  
463 5% 42%  
464 5% 36%  
465 5% 32%  
466 2% 26%  
467 4% 24%  
468 3% 20%  
469 2% 18%  
470 2% 15%  
471 2% 14%  
472 2% 11%  
473 1.3% 9%  
474 2% 8%  
475 1.3% 6%  
476 0.8% 5%  
477 0.3% 4%  
478 0.4% 4%  
479 0.6% 4%  
480 0.4% 3%  
481 0.3% 2%  
482 0.3% 2%  
483 0.1% 2%  
484 0.1% 2%  
485 0.1% 2%  
486 0% 1.5%  
487 0.1% 1.4%  
488 0.1% 1.4%  
489 0% 1.3%  
490 0% 1.3%  
491 0% 1.2%  
492 0.1% 1.2%  
493 0.1% 1.1%  
494 0% 1.0%  
495 0.1% 1.0%  
496 0.1% 0.9%  
497 0.1% 0.9%  
498 0% 0.8%  
499 0.1% 0.8%  
500 0.1% 0.7%  
501 0.1% 0.6%  
502 0.1% 0.5%  
503 0.1% 0.5%  
504 0% 0.4%  
505 0% 0.3%  
506 0% 0.3%  
507 0% 0.3%  
508 0% 0.2%  
509 0% 0.2%  
510 0% 0.2%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.8%  
405 0.1% 99.7%  
406 0.2% 99.6%  
407 0.2% 99.4%  
408 0.3% 99.2%  
409 0.2% 99.0%  
410 0.6% 98.8%  
411 0.6% 98%  
412 0.7% 98%  
413 0.7% 97%  
414 0.7% 96%  
415 1.4% 95%  
416 1.3% 94%  
417 2% 93%  
418 1.3% 91%  
419 2% 90%  
420 3% 88%  
421 3% 85%  
422 3% 82%  
423 2% 79%  
424 3% 77%  
425 4% 73%  
426 4% 69%  
427 4% 65%  
428 3% 62%  
429 6% 58% Median
430 3% 53%  
431 3% 49%  
432 4% 46%  
433 6% 42%  
434 5% 36%  
435 2% 31%  
436 4% 28%  
437 3% 25%  
438 2% 21%  
439 3% 19%  
440 1.2% 16%  
441 3% 14%  
442 2% 12%  
443 2% 10%  
444 1.1% 8%  
445 1.1% 7%  
446 1.3% 6%  
447 0.7% 5%  
448 0.4% 4%  
449 0.5% 4%  
450 0.4% 3%  
451 0.4% 3%  
452 0.2% 3%  
453 0.2% 2%  
454 0.2% 2%  
455 0.2% 2%  
456 0.2% 2%  
457 0.1% 2%  
458 0.1% 2%  
459 0.1% 1.4%  
460 0.2% 1.3%  
461 0% 1.1%  
462 0.1% 1.1%  
463 0.2% 1.0%  
464 0.1% 0.8%  
465 0.1% 0.7%  
466 0.1% 0.6%  
467 0.1% 0.5%  
468 0.1% 0.5%  
469 0% 0.4%  
470 0% 0.3%  
471 0% 0.3%  
472 0% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.7%  
368 0.2% 99.6%  
369 0.2% 99.5%  
370 0.2% 99.2%  
371 0.2% 99.0%  
372 0.5% 98.8%  
373 0.4% 98%  
374 0.6% 98%  
375 0.6% 97%  
376 1.1% 97%  
377 0.9% 96%  
378 2% 95%  
379 1.2% 93%  
380 2% 92%  
381 2% 90%  
382 2% 88%  
383 2% 86%  
384 3% 84%  
385 2% 80%  
386 4% 79%  
387 4% 75%  
388 4% 70%  
389 4% 66%  
390 3% 62%  
391 4% 59%  
392 4% 55% Median
393 3% 51%  
394 5% 47%  
395 3% 42%  
396 5% 39%  
397 3% 34%  
398 3% 31%  
399 3% 28%  
400 4% 25%  
401 2% 21%  
402 3% 19%  
403 2% 16%  
404 1.4% 14%  
405 2% 12%  
406 1.5% 10%  
407 1.4% 8%  
408 1.1% 7%  
409 0.8% 6%  
410 0.7% 5%  
411 0.6% 4%  
412 0.5% 4%  
413 0.5% 3%  
414 0.3% 3%  
415 0.3% 2%  
416 0.2% 2%  
417 0.2% 2%  
418 0.2% 2%  
419 0.3% 2%  
420 0.2% 1.2% Last Result
421 0.1% 1.1%  
422 0.1% 1.0%  
423 0.1% 0.9%  
424 0.1% 0.8%  
425 0.1% 0.7%  
426 0.1% 0.6%  
427 0.1% 0.5%  
428 0.1% 0.5%  
429 0.1% 0.4%  
430 0% 0.3%  
431 0% 0.3%  
432 0% 0.3%  
433 0% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.2%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0.1% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.5%  
346 0.2% 99.4%  
347 0.3% 99.2%  
348 0.4% 98.9%  
349 0.4% 98.5%  
350 0.6% 98%  
351 0.6% 97%  
352 0.8% 97%  
353 1.0% 96%  
354 1.2% 95%  
355 2% 94% Majority
356 1.5% 92%  
357 2% 91%  
358 2% 89%  
359 2% 87%  
360 3% 85%  
361 3% 82%  
362 3% 79%  
363 3% 76%  
364 3% 73%  
365 4% 69%  
366 3% 66%  
367 5% 62%  
368 4% 58% Median
369 4% 53%  
370 3% 50%  
371 6% 46%  
372 3% 40%  
373 4% 37%  
374 5% 33%  
375 3% 29%  
376 4% 26%  
377 2% 22%  
378 2% 19%  
379 3% 17%  
380 2% 14%  
381 2% 13%  
382 2% 11%  
383 1.2% 9%  
384 1.4% 8%  
385 1.0% 7%  
386 0.7% 6%  
387 0.8% 5%  
388 0.5% 4%  
389 0.6% 4%  
390 0.4% 3%  
391 0.5% 3%  
392 0.3% 2%  
393 0.2% 2%  
394 0.2% 2%  
395 0.1% 1.4%  
396 0.2% 1.3%  
397 0.1% 1.1%  
398 0.1% 1.0%  
399 0.2% 0.8%  
400 0.1% 0.7%  
401 0.1% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.5%  
403 0% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.4%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.3%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.2% 99.7%  
338 0.1% 99.5%  
339 0.2% 99.4%  
340 0.2% 99.2%  
341 0.4% 98.9%  
342 0.5% 98.6%  
343 0.5% 98%  
344 0.8% 98%  
345 0.6% 97%  
346 0.7% 96%  
347 1.4% 96%  
348 1.0% 94%  
349 2% 93%  
350 2% 92%  
351 2% 90%  
352 3% 88%  
353 3% 85%  
354 2% 82%  
355 4% 80% Majority
356 4% 75%  
357 3% 72%  
358 3% 69%  
359 5% 65%  
360 3% 60%  
361 5% 57% Median
362 5% 52%  
363 4% 47%  
364 4% 42%  
365 3% 39%  
366 5% 35%  
367 3% 30%  
368 4% 28%  
369 2% 24%  
370 3% 21%  
371 3% 19%  
372 2% 16%  
373 2% 14%  
374 2% 12%  
375 2% 10%  
376 1.0% 9%  
377 1.0% 8%  
378 1.1% 7%  
379 1.0% 6%  
380 0.7% 5%  
381 0.6% 4%  
382 0.6% 3%  
383 0.3% 3%  
384 0.5% 2%  
385 0.2% 2%  
386 0.3% 2%  
387 0.2% 1.5%  
388 0.2% 1.3%  
389 0.1% 1.1%  
390 0.1% 1.0%  
391 0.1% 0.9%  
392 0.1% 0.8%  
393 0.1% 0.7%  
394 0.1% 0.6%  
395 0.1% 0.6%  
396 0.1% 0.5%  
397 0.1% 0.5%  
398 0.1% 0.4%  
399 0% 0.3%  
400 0% 0.3%  
401 0% 0.3%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.6%  
309 0.2% 99.5%  
310 0.3% 99.2%  
311 0.6% 99.0%  
312 0.3% 98%  
313 0.6% 98%  
314 0.9% 98%  
315 0.7% 97%  
316 1.0% 96%  
317 1.0% 95%  
318 0.9% 94%  
319 2% 93%  
320 2% 91%  
321 2% 90%  
322 2% 88%  
323 4% 85%  
324 2% 81%  
325 4% 79%  
326 3% 76%  
327 4% 72%  
328 5% 68%  
329 4% 63%  
330 3% 59%  
331 4% 56% Median
332 3% 52%  
333 5% 49%  
334 4% 44%  
335 4% 40%  
336 4% 36%  
337 4% 33%  
338 4% 29%  
339 3% 25%  
340 3% 21%  
341 3% 18%  
342 3% 16%  
343 2% 13%  
344 1.3% 11%  
345 1.1% 10%  
346 1.4% 9%  
347 1.4% 8%  
348 1.2% 6%  
349 0.6% 5%  
350 0.7% 4%  
351 0.5% 4%  
352 0.6% 3%  
353 0.4% 3%  
354 0.4% 2%  
355 0.2% 2% Majority
356 0.2% 2%  
357 0.2% 1.4%  
358 0.1% 1.3%  
359 0.1% 1.1%  
360 0.1% 1.0%  
361 0.1% 0.9%  
362 0.2% 0.8%  
363 0% 0.6%  
364 0.1% 0.5%  
365 0% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.7%  
279 0% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.1% 99.5%  
283 0.1% 99.5%  
284 0.1% 99.4%  
285 0.1% 99.3%  
286 0.1% 99.2%  
287 0.1% 99.1%  
288 0.1% 99.0%  
289 0.2% 98.9% Last Result
290 0.3% 98.8%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.2% 98%  
294 0.3% 98%  
295 0.3% 98%  
296 0.5% 97%  
297 0.5% 97%  
298 0.6% 96%  
299 0.7% 96%  
300 0.8% 95%  
301 1.1% 94%  
302 1.4% 93%  
303 1.5% 92%  
304 2% 90%  
305 1.4% 88%  
306 2% 86%  
307 3% 84%  
308 2% 81%  
309 4% 79%  
310 3% 75%  
311 3% 72%  
312 3% 69%  
313 5% 66%  
314 3% 61%  
315 5% 58%  
316 3% 53% Median
317 4% 49%  
318 4% 45%  
319 3% 41%  
320 4% 38%  
321 4% 34%  
322 4% 30%  
323 4% 25%  
324 2% 21%  
325 3% 20%  
326 2% 16%  
327 2% 14%  
328 2% 12%  
329 2% 10%  
330 1.2% 8%  
331 2% 7%  
332 0.9% 5%  
333 1.1% 4%  
334 0.6% 3%  
335 0.6% 3%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.5% 2%  
338 0.2% 1.2%  
339 0.2% 1.0%  
340 0.2% 0.8%  
341 0.2% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.2% 99.7%  
286 0.1% 99.5%  
287 0.3% 99.4%  
288 0.3% 99.1%  
289 0.3% 98.8%  
290 0.7% 98%  
291 0.3% 98%  
292 1.0% 98%  
293 0.6% 97%  
294 1.3% 96%  
295 1.2% 95%  
296 0.9% 93%  
297 3% 93%  
298 1.2% 90%  
299 3% 89%  
300 2% 86%  
301 2% 83%  
302 3% 81%  
303 2% 78%  
304 6% 75%  
305 2% 69%  
306 6% 67%  
307 3% 62%  
308 3% 59%  
309 5% 55% Median
310 2% 50%  
311 7% 48%  
312 2% 41%  
313 6% 40%  
314 4% 34%  
315 2% 30%  
316 5% 28%  
317 1.5% 23%  
318 3% 22%  
319 3% 18%  
320 2% 15%  
321 3% 14%  
322 0.9% 11%  
323 2% 10%  
324 0.8% 8%  
325 1.3% 7%  
326 1.1% 6% Last Result
327 0.7% 4%  
328 0.7% 4%  
329 0.4% 3%  
330 0.5% 3%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.2% 1.3%  
335 0.2% 1.1%  
336 0.1% 1.0%  
337 0.1% 0.8%  
338 0.1% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.2% 99.5%  
272 0.2% 99.4%  
273 0.3% 99.2%  
274 0.3% 98.8%  
275 0.5% 98%  
276 0.5% 98%  
277 0.6% 97%  
278 1.0% 97%  
279 0.9% 96%  
280 2% 95%  
281 0.9% 93%  
282 2% 92%  
283 1.5% 90%  
284 2% 89%  
285 3% 87%  
286 3% 84%  
287 4% 81%  
288 3% 77%  
289 3% 74%  
290 3% 71%  
291 7% 68%  
292 3% 61%  
293 6% 58%  
294 2% 51% Median
295 4% 50%  
296 4% 46%  
297 5% 42%  
298 3% 37%  
299 4% 34%  
300 3% 30%  
301 3% 27%  
302 3% 24%  
303 2% 21%  
304 4% 19%  
305 2% 15%  
306 2% 13%  
307 1.1% 11%  
308 1.3% 10%  
309 1.3% 8%  
310 1.4% 7%  
311 1.0% 6%  
312 0.7% 5%  
313 0.8% 4%  
314 0.5% 3%  
315 0.4% 3%  
316 0.4% 2%  
317 0.4% 2%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.2% 1.2%  
320 0.1% 0.9%  
321 0.1% 0.8%  
322 0.1% 0.7%  
323 0.1% 0.6%  
324 0.1% 0.5%  
325 0.1% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.3%  
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.5%  
249 0.3% 99.4%  
250 0.2% 99.1%  
251 0.3% 98.9%  
252 0.4% 98.6%  
253 0.8% 98%  
254 1.0% 97%  
255 1.1% 96%  
256 1.0% 95%  
257 1.3% 94%  
258 2% 93%  
259 2% 91%  
260 3% 89%  
261 2% 87%  
262 2% 84%  
263 3% 83%  
264 3% 80%  
265 4% 77%  
266 5% 73%  
267 4% 68%  
268 3% 64%  
269 4% 61%  
270 6% 57% Median
271 4% 51%  
272 5% 48%  
273 3% 43%  
274 3% 40%  
275 4% 36%  
276 4% 33%  
277 4% 29%  
278 3% 25%  
279 2% 22%  
280 2% 19%  
281 3% 17%  
282 3% 14%  
283 1.4% 11%  
284 2% 10%  
285 0.8% 8%  
286 1.3% 7%  
287 1.3% 6%  
288 0.9% 5%  
289 0.7% 4%  
290 0.5% 3%  
291 0.4% 3%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.3% 2%  
294 0.3% 2%  
295 0.2% 1.2%  
296 0.2% 1.0%  
297 0.1% 0.9%  
298 0.1% 0.7%  
299 0.2% 0.6%  
300 0.1% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0.1% 0.4%  
303 0% 0.3%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.8%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.7%  
197 0.2% 99.5%  
198 0.3% 99.3%  
199 0.4% 99.0%  
200 0.5% 98.6%  
201 0.6% 98%  
202 0.7% 98%  
203 0.9% 97%  
204 1.2% 96%  
205 1.5% 95%  
206 1.2% 93%  
207 3% 92%  
208 2% 90%  
209 2% 87%  
210 3% 85%  
211 3% 82%  
212 3% 79%  
213 5% 77%  
214 3% 72%  
215 4% 69%  
216 3% 64%  
217 4% 61%  
218 5% 57% Median
219 5% 52%  
220 4% 48%  
221 6% 44%  
222 4% 38%  
223 3% 34%  
224 5% 31%  
225 4% 26%  
226 4% 22%  
227 3% 18%  
228 3% 16%  
229 2% 13%  
230 2% 11%  
231 2% 9%  
232 1.2% 8%  
233 1.4% 6% Last Result
234 0.8% 5%  
235 0.8% 4%  
236 0.6% 3%  
237 0.5% 3%  
238 0.6% 2%  
239 0.3% 2%  
240 0.2% 1.4%  
241 0.2% 1.2%  
242 0.2% 0.9%  
243 0.2% 0.8%  
244 0.1% 0.6%  
245 0.1% 0.5%  
246 0.1% 0.4%  
247 0.1% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.3%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0% 99.8%  
117 0% 99.7%  
118 0.1% 99.7%  
119 0% 99.6%  
120 0.2% 99.6%  
121 0% 99.4%  
122 0% 99.4%  
123 0.2% 99.4%  
124 0% 99.1%  
125 0.1% 99.1%  
126 0% 99.0%  
127 0% 99.0%  
128 0.1% 98.9%  
129 0% 98.9%  
130 0.1% 98.8%  
131 0% 98.7%  
132 0% 98.7%  
133 0.1% 98.7%  
134 0.1% 98.6%  
135 0% 98.6%  
136 0% 98.5%  
137 0.2% 98.5%  
138 0% 98%  
139 0.1% 98%  
140 0.1% 98%  
141 0% 98%  
142 0.1% 98%  
143 0.1% 98%  
144 0.1% 98%  
145 0.2% 98%  
146 0% 98%  
147 0.2% 98%  
148 0.2% 97%  
149 0.4% 97%  
150 0.6% 97%  
151 1.3% 96%  
152 0.6% 95%  
153 2% 94%  
154 0.9% 92%  
155 1.3% 91%  
156 2% 90%  
157 3% 88%  
158 2% 85%  
159 6% 83%  
160 4% 77%  
161 5% 73%  
162 3% 68%  
163 3% 65%  
164 3% 62%  
165 6% 59%  
166 4% 53% Median
167 9% 49%  
168 4% 40%  
169 6% 36%  
170 2% 30%  
171 3% 27%  
172 2% 24%  
173 5% 23%  
174 4% 18%  
175 4% 14%  
176 2% 11%  
177 2% 9%  
178 0.9% 7%  
179 0.9% 6%  
180 0.9% 5%  
181 0.8% 4%  
182 0.7% 3%  
183 0.9% 2%  
184 0.3% 2%  
185 0.5% 1.2%  
186 0.1% 0.7%  
187 0.1% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations