Opinion Poll by Forsa, 15–21 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 23.6% 22.4–24.9% 22.0–25.3% 21.7–25.6% 21.2–26.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.8–22.2% 19.5–22.6% 19.2–22.9% 18.7–23.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 12.0–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.5–14.6% 11.1–15.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.4% 4.8–6.1% 4.6–6.4% 4.5–6.5% 4.2–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 180 170–189 168–192 165–195 161–200
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 161 152–169 149–172 147–175 143–179
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 107–122 104–125 103–127 99–131
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 100 93–106 91–107 89–109 85–115
Alternative für Deutschland 94 69 63–75 61–77 59–79 57–83
Die Linke 69 46 41–52 40–53 38–55 0–57
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 37–47 36–48 36–49 33–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.2% 99.6%  
162 0.3% 99.5%  
163 0.4% 99.2%  
164 0.5% 98.8%  
165 0.8% 98%  
166 0.8% 97%  
167 2% 97%  
168 2% 95%  
169 2% 93%  
170 2% 92%  
171 3% 90%  
172 4% 87%  
173 3% 83%  
174 4% 80%  
175 5% 76%  
176 5% 71%  
177 6% 66%  
178 4% 59%  
179 5% 55%  
180 6% 50% Median
181 6% 44%  
182 4% 38%  
183 5% 34%  
184 5% 30%  
185 5% 25%  
186 3% 20%  
187 3% 17%  
188 3% 14%  
189 2% 11%  
190 2% 9%  
191 1.3% 7%  
192 1.1% 6%  
193 1.0% 5%  
194 1.0% 4%  
195 0.6% 3%  
196 0.4% 2%  
197 0.3% 2%  
198 0.3% 1.2%  
199 0.2% 1.0%  
200 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
201 0.1% 0.5%  
202 0.1% 0.4%  
203 0.1% 0.3%  
204 0% 0.2%  
205 0% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.2% 99.7%  
143 0.2% 99.5%  
144 0.3% 99.3%  
145 0.4% 99.0%  
146 0.6% 98.6%  
147 0.9% 98%  
148 1.4% 97%  
149 1.1% 96%  
150 2% 95%  
151 2% 93%  
152 2% 91%  
153 4% 89%  
154 3% 85%  
155 4% 82%  
156 4% 77%  
157 4% 73%  
158 7% 69%  
159 5% 62%  
160 6% 57%  
161 6% 51% Median
162 5% 45%  
163 6% 40%  
164 4% 34%  
165 6% 30%  
166 5% 24%  
167 2% 20%  
168 5% 17%  
169 3% 12%  
170 2% 10%  
171 2% 8%  
172 1.1% 6%  
173 1.2% 5%  
174 0.8% 3%  
175 0.7% 3%  
176 0.7% 2%  
177 0.3% 1.2%  
178 0.2% 1.0%  
179 0.3% 0.7%  
180 0.1% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.4%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.7%  
100 0.4% 99.4%  
101 0.5% 99.0%  
102 0.7% 98.5%  
103 1.2% 98%  
104 2% 97%  
105 2% 95%  
106 2% 93%  
107 3% 91%  
108 4% 88%  
109 5% 84%  
110 5% 79%  
111 6% 74%  
112 5% 67%  
113 6% 62%  
114 7% 56% Median
115 6% 49%  
116 6% 43%  
117 6% 37%  
118 6% 30%  
119 4% 25%  
120 5% 21%  
121 3% 16%  
122 3% 13%  
123 3% 9%  
124 2% 7%  
125 1.3% 5%  
126 1.3% 4%  
127 0.7% 3%  
128 0.7% 2%  
129 0.4% 1.3%  
130 0.3% 0.9%  
131 0.2% 0.6%  
132 0.1% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.6%  
86 0.4% 99.3%  
87 0.4% 98.9%  
88 0.4% 98.6%  
89 0.8% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 2% 96%  
92 2% 93%  
93 2% 91%  
94 4% 89%  
95 8% 85%  
96 9% 77%  
97 6% 68%  
98 4% 62%  
99 6% 58%  
100 10% 52% Median
101 12% 42%  
102 6% 30%  
103 4% 24%  
104 4% 20%  
105 5% 16%  
106 3% 11%  
107 3% 8%  
108 2% 5%  
109 1.0% 3%  
110 0.7% 2%  
111 0.4% 2%  
112 0.3% 1.4%  
113 0.2% 1.0%  
114 0.2% 0.9%  
115 0.2% 0.6%  
116 0.1% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.3%  
118 0% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.4% 99.5%  
58 0.7% 99.1%  
59 1.0% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 3% 96%  
62 3% 93%  
63 5% 90%  
64 5% 85%  
65 7% 81%  
66 6% 74%  
67 8% 68%  
68 7% 59%  
69 8% 52% Median
70 9% 45%  
71 7% 36%  
72 6% 29%  
73 5% 23%  
74 6% 19%  
75 3% 13%  
76 3% 10%  
77 2% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.4%  
82 0.3% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0% 98%  
38 0.5% 98%  
39 2% 97%  
40 3% 96%  
41 5% 93%  
42 5% 88%  
43 8% 83%  
44 9% 75%  
45 9% 66%  
46 10% 57% Median
47 10% 47%  
48 8% 37%  
49 7% 29%  
50 7% 22%  
51 5% 15%  
52 3% 10%  
53 3% 7%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.1% 3%  
56 0.7% 1.5%  
57 0.4% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.7%  
33 0.1% 99.6%  
34 0.3% 99.4%  
35 0.8% 99.2%  
36 4% 98%  
37 9% 94%  
38 16% 85%  
39 17% 69%  
40 20% 52% Median
41 8% 32%  
42 5% 25%  
43 1.5% 19%  
44 1.1% 18%  
45 2% 17%  
46 3% 15% Last Result
47 5% 12%  
48 3% 7%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.9% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 494 100% 486–504 484–509 482–514 477–535
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 480 100% 470–490 467–494 464–499 459–518
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 433 100% 424–444 421–448 418–454 413–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 388 100% 378–399 376–403 373–409 369–421
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 381 99.9% 370–392 367–395 365–400 359–413
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 374 99.0% 363–385 360–389 357–392 353–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 334 3% 325–345 323–350 320–355 316–367
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 319 0.2% 310–330 307–334 305–339 300–348
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 321 0% 310–331 306–333 300–336 288–340
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 288 0% 279–300 276–304 274–307 270–318
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 275 0% 265–285 262–288 259–291 253–300
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 214 0% 204–224 201–227 199–230 194–236
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 160 0% 151–169 148–172 143–174 118–179

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 99.9%  
471 0% 99.9%  
472 0% 99.9%  
473 0.1% 99.9%  
474 0.1% 99.8%  
475 0.1% 99.7%  
476 0.1% 99.7%  
477 0.2% 99.6%  
478 0.2% 99.4%  
479 0.3% 99.2%  
480 0.5% 98.9%  
481 0.7% 98%  
482 0.7% 98%  
483 1.4% 97%  
484 1.2% 96%  
485 2% 94%  
486 3% 93%  
487 3% 90%  
488 4% 86%  
489 5% 83%  
490 5% 78%  
491 3% 73%  
492 9% 70%  
493 3% 60%  
494 9% 57%  
495 5% 48% Median
496 6% 44%  
497 6% 37%  
498 4% 32%  
499 4% 28%  
500 4% 24%  
501 4% 20%  
502 2% 16%  
503 3% 14%  
504 1.5% 11%  
505 1.4% 10%  
506 1.2% 8%  
507 1.0% 7%  
508 1.0% 6%  
509 0.6% 5%  
510 0.7% 4%  
511 0.4% 4%  
512 0.4% 3%  
513 0.2% 3%  
514 0.2% 3%  
515 0.2% 2%  
516 0.1% 2%  
517 0.1% 2%  
518 0.1% 2%  
519 0.1% 2%  
520 0.1% 2%  
521 0.1% 2%  
522 0.1% 2%  
523 0.1% 2%  
524 0.1% 2%  
525 0.1% 2%  
526 0.1% 1.4%  
527 0.1% 1.3%  
528 0.1% 1.2%  
529 0.1% 1.1%  
530 0.1% 1.1%  
531 0.1% 1.0%  
532 0.1% 0.9%  
533 0.1% 0.8%  
534 0.1% 0.7%  
535 0.2% 0.7%  
536 0.1% 0.4%  
537 0% 0.4%  
538 0% 0.4%  
539 0.1% 0.3%  
540 0% 0.2%  
541 0% 0.2%  
542 0% 0.2%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 100%  
449 0% 100%  
450 0% 100%  
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 100%  
454 0% 100%  
455 0% 99.9%  
456 0% 99.9%  
457 0.1% 99.9%  
458 0.2% 99.8%  
459 0.2% 99.6%  
460 0.2% 99.5%  
461 0.4% 99.3%  
462 0.3% 98.9%  
463 0.6% 98.6%  
464 0.6% 98%  
465 0.9% 97%  
466 0.8% 97%  
467 1.5% 96%  
468 1.4% 94%  
469 3% 93%  
470 3% 90%  
471 2% 88%  
472 3% 85%  
473 4% 82%  
474 4% 78%  
475 4% 74%  
476 4% 70%  
477 5% 66%  
478 5% 61%  
479 5% 56%  
480 6% 51%  
481 5% 45% Median
482 5% 40%  
483 4% 36%  
484 4% 32%  
485 4% 27%  
486 2% 23%  
487 3% 21%  
488 4% 17%  
489 2% 14%  
490 2% 11%  
491 2% 10%  
492 1.4% 8%  
493 1.0% 6%  
494 0.8% 5%  
495 0.7% 5%  
496 0.5% 4%  
497 0.3% 3%  
498 0.4% 3%  
499 0.2% 3%  
500 0.1% 2%  
501 0.1% 2%  
502 0.1% 2%  
503 0% 2%  
504 0.2% 2%  
505 0% 2%  
506 0% 2%  
507 0.1% 2%  
508 0% 2%  
509 0.1% 2%  
510 0.2% 1.5%  
511 0.1% 1.3%  
512 0.1% 1.3%  
513 0.3% 1.2%  
514 0% 0.9%  
515 0.2% 0.9%  
516 0.1% 0.7%  
517 0% 0.6%  
518 0.2% 0.6%  
519 0% 0.4%  
520 0.1% 0.4%  
521 0.1% 0.3%  
522 0% 0.2%  
523 0% 0.2%  
524 0% 0.2%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0.1%  
527 0% 0.1%  
528 0% 0.1%  
529 0% 0.1%  
530 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.9%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.1% 99.8%  
413 0.2% 99.7%  
414 0.2% 99.5%  
415 0.3% 99.3%  
416 0.4% 99.0%  
417 0.5% 98.6%  
418 0.8% 98%  
419 0.9% 97%  
420 1.1% 96%  
421 1.4% 95%  
422 2% 94%  
423 2% 92%  
424 3% 90%  
425 3% 87%  
426 3% 84%  
427 5% 81%  
428 3% 76%  
429 4% 73%  
430 6% 70%  
431 4% 64%  
432 6% 60%  
433 6% 54%  
434 4% 48% Median
435 5% 44%  
436 4% 39%  
437 5% 35%  
438 4% 30%  
439 4% 26%  
440 5% 23%  
441 3% 18%  
442 2% 16%  
443 2% 13%  
444 2% 12%  
445 2% 10%  
446 1.0% 8%  
447 1.3% 7%  
448 0.8% 5%  
449 0.6% 5%  
450 0.5% 4%  
451 0.4% 4%  
452 0.4% 3%  
453 0.4% 3%  
454 0.3% 3%  
455 0.2% 2%  
456 0.2% 2%  
457 0.1% 2%  
458 0.1% 2%  
459 0.1% 2%  
460 0.1% 2%  
461 0.1% 1.5%  
462 0.1% 1.3%  
463 0.1% 1.3%  
464 0.1% 1.2%  
465 0.1% 1.1%  
466 0.1% 1.0%  
467 0.1% 0.9%  
468 0.1% 0.8%  
469 0.1% 0.7%  
470 0.1% 0.6%  
471 0.1% 0.5%  
472 0.1% 0.4%  
473 0.1% 0.3%  
474 0% 0.3%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1% Last Result
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0.1% 99.7%  
369 0.2% 99.6%  
370 0.3% 99.4%  
371 0.4% 99.1%  
372 0.4% 98.7%  
373 0.9% 98%  
374 0.9% 97%  
375 1.3% 97%  
376 2% 95%  
377 2% 94%  
378 3% 92%  
379 3% 89%  
380 3% 86%  
381 4% 83%  
382 3% 80%  
383 5% 76%  
384 5% 71%  
385 4% 66%  
386 6% 62%  
387 5% 55%  
388 5% 50%  
389 6% 45% Median
390 4% 39%  
391 5% 35%  
392 3% 30%  
393 4% 27%  
394 3% 22%  
395 2% 19%  
396 3% 17%  
397 2% 14%  
398 2% 13%  
399 2% 11%  
400 1.3% 9%  
401 1.0% 8%  
402 1.1% 7%  
403 0.7% 6%  
404 0.6% 5%  
405 0.4% 4%  
406 0.7% 4%  
407 0.4% 3%  
408 0.3% 3%  
409 0.3% 3%  
410 0.3% 2%  
411 0.2% 2%  
412 0.2% 2%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.1% 1.4%  
415 0.2% 1.3%  
416 0.2% 1.1%  
417 0.1% 0.9%  
418 0.1% 0.8%  
419 0.1% 0.7%  
420 0% 0.6% Last Result
421 0.2% 0.6%  
422 0% 0.4%  
423 0.1% 0.4%  
424 0% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.3%  
426 0% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.2% 99.7%  
360 0.1% 99.5%  
361 0.3% 99.4%  
362 0.2% 99.1%  
363 0.6% 98.8%  
364 0.5% 98%  
365 0.9% 98%  
366 0.9% 97%  
367 2% 96%  
368 1.0% 94%  
369 2% 93%  
370 1.3% 91%  
371 3% 90%  
372 2% 86%  
373 4% 84%  
374 3% 80%  
375 4% 77%  
376 2% 73%  
377 8% 71%  
378 4% 63%  
379 5% 60%  
380 5% 55%  
381 7% 51% Median
382 3% 43%  
383 4% 40%  
384 6% 36%  
385 5% 30%  
386 2% 25%  
387 3% 23%  
388 4% 20%  
389 2% 16%  
390 1.3% 14%  
391 2% 12%  
392 2% 10%  
393 0.8% 8%  
394 1.1% 7%  
395 1.3% 6%  
396 0.7% 5%  
397 0.5% 4%  
398 0.7% 4%  
399 0.4% 3%  
400 0.3% 3%  
401 0.2% 2%  
402 0.3% 2%  
403 0.2% 2%  
404 0.2% 2%  
405 0.1% 1.5%  
406 0.1% 1.4%  
407 0.2% 1.2%  
408 0.1% 1.0%  
409 0.1% 0.9%  
410 0.1% 0.9%  
411 0.1% 0.8%  
412 0.2% 0.7%  
413 0.1% 0.5%  
414 0.1% 0.5%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0% 0.3%  
417 0% 0.3%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.1% 99.6%  
353 0.2% 99.5%  
354 0.2% 99.3%  
355 0.4% 99.0% Majority
356 0.5% 98.6%  
357 0.7% 98%  
358 0.6% 97%  
359 0.9% 97%  
360 1.2% 96%  
361 1.2% 95%  
362 2% 94%  
363 2% 92%  
364 3% 90%  
365 2% 87%  
366 3% 85%  
367 3% 82%  
368 3% 79%  
369 4% 77%  
370 3% 72%  
371 6% 69%  
372 5% 63%  
373 4% 58%  
374 5% 54%  
375 5% 49% Median
376 4% 43%  
377 4% 40%  
378 5% 35%  
379 4% 31%  
380 4% 27%  
381 3% 23%  
382 4% 20%  
383 2% 16%  
384 2% 14%  
385 2% 11%  
386 2% 10%  
387 2% 8%  
388 0.9% 6%  
389 1.2% 5%  
390 0.7% 4%  
391 0.5% 3%  
392 0.4% 3%  
393 0.4% 2%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.2% 2%  
396 0.2% 2%  
397 0.1% 1.5%  
398 0.1% 1.3%  
399 0.2% 1.2%  
400 0.1% 1.0%  
401 0.1% 1.0%  
402 0.1% 0.9%  
403 0.1% 0.8%  
404 0.1% 0.7%  
405 0.1% 0.7%  
406 0.1% 0.6%  
407 0% 0.5%  
408 0% 0.4%  
409 0.1% 0.4%  
410 0% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0.2% 99.6%  
317 0.2% 99.3%  
318 0.4% 99.1%  
319 0.6% 98.7%  
320 0.9% 98%  
321 0.9% 97%  
322 1.3% 96%  
323 2% 95%  
324 2% 93%  
325 2% 91%  
326 4% 90%  
327 3% 85%  
328 4% 82%  
329 6% 78%  
330 5% 72%  
331 6% 68%  
332 5% 62%  
333 6% 57%  
334 6% 52% Median
335 5% 46%  
336 6% 41%  
337 6% 35%  
338 4% 29%  
339 3% 25%  
340 4% 22%  
341 2% 19%  
342 3% 17%  
343 2% 14%  
344 2% 13%  
345 1.2% 10%  
346 1.2% 9%  
347 1.1% 8%  
348 1.0% 7%  
349 0.7% 6%  
350 0.4% 5%  
351 0.8% 5%  
352 0.5% 4%  
353 0.6% 4%  
354 0.4% 3%  
355 0.5% 3% Majority
356 0.3% 2%  
357 0.4% 2%  
358 0.2% 2%  
359 0.2% 1.4%  
360 0.1% 1.2%  
361 0.1% 1.1%  
362 0.1% 0.9%  
363 0.1% 0.8%  
364 0.1% 0.8%  
365 0.1% 0.7%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.6%  
368 0% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.2% 99.6%  
301 0.2% 99.5%  
302 0.3% 99.3%  
303 0.5% 98.9%  
304 0.5% 98%  
305 0.7% 98%  
306 1.1% 97%  
307 1.2% 96%  
308 2% 95%  
309 2% 92%  
310 3% 90%  
311 2% 87%  
312 5% 85%  
313 4% 80%  
314 4% 76%  
315 5% 72%  
316 6% 68%  
317 7% 62%  
318 4% 54%  
319 5% 51%  
320 5% 46% Median
321 5% 40%  
322 4% 35%  
323 5% 31%  
324 3% 27%  
325 3% 23%  
326 3% 20% Last Result
327 2% 17%  
328 2% 15%  
329 2% 13%  
330 2% 11%  
331 2% 10%  
332 1.0% 8%  
333 1.2% 7%  
334 0.9% 6%  
335 0.6% 5%  
336 0.7% 4%  
337 0.5% 4%  
338 0.4% 3%  
339 0.4% 3%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.3% 2%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.1% 1.3%  
344 0.2% 1.1%  
345 0.1% 1.0%  
346 0.1% 0.8%  
347 0.1% 0.7%  
348 0.2% 0.6%  
349 0% 0.4%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.7%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0% 99.6%  
288 0.2% 99.6%  
289 0% 99.4% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.4%  
291 0.1% 99.3%  
292 0.1% 99.2%  
293 0.2% 99.1%  
294 0.2% 98.9%  
295 0.1% 98.7%  
296 0.2% 98.6%  
297 0.2% 98%  
298 0.2% 98%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.3% 98%  
301 0.3% 97%  
302 0.4% 97%  
303 0.7% 97%  
304 0.4% 96%  
305 0.6% 96%  
306 0.7% 95%  
307 1.1% 94%  
308 1.0% 93%  
309 1.3% 92%  
310 2% 91%  
311 2% 89%  
312 2% 87%  
313 3% 86%  
314 2% 83%  
315 3% 81%  
316 4% 78%  
317 3% 73%  
318 5% 70%  
319 4% 65%  
320 6% 61%  
321 5% 55% Median
322 5% 50%  
323 6% 45%  
324 4% 38%  
325 5% 34%  
326 5% 29%  
327 3% 24%  
328 4% 20%  
329 3% 17%  
330 3% 14%  
331 3% 11%  
332 2% 8%  
333 2% 6%  
334 1.3% 5%  
335 0.9% 3%  
336 0.9% 3%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.4% 1.3%  
339 0.3% 0.9%  
340 0.2% 0.6%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.4% 99.6%  
271 0.2% 99.3%  
272 0.2% 99.0%  
273 1.1% 98.8%  
274 0.8% 98%  
275 0.5% 97%  
276 2% 96%  
277 1.0% 94%  
278 1.3% 93%  
279 5% 92%  
280 1.2% 87%  
281 3% 86%  
282 5% 83%  
283 4% 78%  
284 4% 74%  
285 7% 70%  
286 3% 63%  
287 4% 61%  
288 9% 57%  
289 2% 47% Median
290 5% 45%  
291 6% 40%  
292 3% 34%  
293 4% 31%  
294 5% 27%  
295 2% 22%  
296 4% 20%  
297 3% 16%  
298 1.3% 13%  
299 2% 12%  
300 2% 10%  
301 0.6% 8%  
302 2% 8%  
303 1.1% 6%  
304 0.7% 5%  
305 0.7% 4%  
306 0.8% 4%  
307 0.4% 3%  
308 0.4% 2%  
309 0.1% 2%  
310 0.3% 2%  
311 0.3% 2%  
312 0.1% 1.2%  
313 0.2% 1.1%  
314 0.1% 0.9%  
315 0.1% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.7%  
317 0% 0.6%  
318 0% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.5%  
320 0.2% 0.4%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0.1% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.2% 99.4%  
255 0.3% 99.3%  
256 0.4% 99.0%  
257 0.4% 98.6%  
258 0.7% 98%  
259 0.6% 98%  
260 0.8% 97%  
261 0.6% 96%  
262 1.0% 95%  
263 2% 94%  
264 2% 93%  
265 1.4% 91%  
266 3% 90%  
267 4% 87%  
268 2% 83%  
269 3% 81%  
270 4% 78%  
271 4% 74%  
272 5% 69%  
273 6% 65%  
274 5% 59%  
275 6% 54% Median
276 4% 48%  
277 6% 44%  
278 5% 38%  
279 5% 33%  
280 3% 28%  
281 3% 24%  
282 5% 21%  
283 3% 16%  
284 2% 13%  
285 2% 11%  
286 2% 9%  
287 2% 7%  
288 1.1% 6%  
289 0.8% 4%  
290 0.8% 4%  
291 0.5% 3%  
292 0.3% 2%  
293 0.4% 2%  
294 0.3% 2%  
295 0.2% 1.3%  
296 0.2% 1.1%  
297 0.2% 0.9%  
298 0.1% 0.7%  
299 0.1% 0.6%  
300 0.1% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.8%  
193 0.1% 99.7%  
194 0.2% 99.6%  
195 0.2% 99.4%  
196 0.4% 99.2%  
197 0.5% 98.9%  
198 0.6% 98%  
199 0.8% 98%  
200 1.0% 97%  
201 1.2% 96%  
202 2% 95%  
203 2% 93%  
204 2% 91%  
205 2% 88%  
206 4% 86%  
207 5% 83%  
208 3% 78%  
209 5% 75%  
210 4% 70%  
211 5% 66%  
212 4% 61%  
213 6% 56%  
214 7% 51% Median
215 3% 43%  
216 5% 40%  
217 4% 35%  
218 4% 31%  
219 5% 27%  
220 3% 22%  
221 3% 19%  
222 3% 16%  
223 3% 13%  
224 2% 11%  
225 2% 9%  
226 2% 7%  
227 0.7% 5%  
228 0.9% 5%  
229 0.9% 4%  
230 0.6% 3%  
231 0.6% 2%  
232 0.3% 2%  
233 0.2% 1.2% Last Result
234 0.2% 1.1%  
235 0.3% 0.9%  
236 0.1% 0.6%  
237 0.1% 0.4%  
238 0.1% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.3%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0.1% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.7%  
117 0.1% 99.6%  
118 0.1% 99.5%  
119 0.1% 99.5%  
120 0.2% 99.4%  
121 0.1% 99.2%  
122 0.1% 99.1%  
123 0.2% 99.0%  
124 0.1% 98.8%  
125 0.1% 98.7%  
126 0.1% 98.6%  
127 0.1% 98%  
128 0.1% 98%  
129 0.1% 98%  
130 0% 98%  
131 0.1% 98%  
132 0% 98%  
133 0% 98%  
134 0% 98%  
135 0% 98%  
136 0% 98%  
137 0% 98%  
138 0% 98%  
139 0% 98%  
140 0% 98%  
141 0.1% 98%  
142 0.1% 98%  
143 0.2% 98%  
144 0.2% 97%  
145 0.5% 97%  
146 0.4% 97%  
147 0.8% 96%  
148 0.9% 95%  
149 1.3% 95%  
150 2% 93%  
151 2% 91%  
152 2% 89%  
153 4% 87%  
154 3% 83%  
155 4% 80%  
156 4% 76%  
157 6% 72%  
158 5% 66%  
159 5% 62%  
160 7% 56% Median
161 4% 49%  
162 6% 45%  
163 6% 39%  
164 5% 33%  
165 5% 29%  
166 3% 24%  
167 4% 20%  
168 4% 17%  
169 2% 12%  
170 3% 10%  
171 2% 7%  
172 1.4% 6%  
173 1.1% 4%  
174 1.0% 3%  
175 0.8% 2%  
176 0.4% 2%  
177 0.3% 1.1%  
178 0.3% 0.8%  
179 0.2% 0.5%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations