Opinion Poll by GMS, 16–21 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.1–24.5% 20.7–25.0% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–18.0% 13.8–18.4% 13.2–19.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 10.7–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.5–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 171 159–184 155–188 152–191 147–198
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 150 138–162 135–166 132–169 127–176
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 121 110–132 106–135 104–138 99–144
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 90 81–100 78–103 76–106 72–111
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 66–85 64–87 62–90 59–95
Die Linke 69 60 52–69 50–71 49–74 45–78
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 34–47 32–49 30–51 28–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.7%  
147 0.2% 99.5%  
148 0.2% 99.4%  
149 0.3% 99.2%  
150 0.5% 98.9%  
151 0.4% 98%  
152 0.7% 98%  
153 0.5% 97%  
154 1.0% 97%  
155 1.1% 96%  
156 1.3% 95%  
157 1.2% 93%  
158 2% 92%  
159 2% 91%  
160 2% 89%  
161 2% 87%  
162 3% 84%  
163 3% 82%  
164 3% 78%  
165 3% 75%  
166 4% 72%  
167 4% 68%  
168 4% 64%  
169 4% 60%  
170 5% 57%  
171 4% 52% Median
172 4% 48%  
173 4% 44%  
174 4% 41%  
175 4% 37%  
176 3% 33%  
177 4% 29%  
178 3% 25%  
179 3% 23%  
180 2% 19%  
181 2% 17%  
182 2% 14%  
183 2% 12%  
184 1.5% 11%  
185 2% 9%  
186 1.3% 8%  
187 1.1% 6%  
188 1.0% 5%  
189 0.9% 4%  
190 0.7% 3%  
191 0.5% 3%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.4% 2%  
194 0.2% 1.3%  
195 0.3% 1.1%  
196 0.2% 0.8%  
197 0.2% 0.7%  
198 0.1% 0.5%  
199 0.1% 0.4%  
200 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.1% 99.7%  
127 0.2% 99.6%  
128 0.2% 99.4%  
129 0.4% 99.2%  
130 0.4% 98.8%  
131 0.6% 98%  
132 0.5% 98%  
133 0.8% 97%  
134 0.8% 97%  
135 1.4% 96%  
136 1.3% 94%  
137 2% 93%  
138 2% 91%  
139 2% 90%  
140 2% 88%  
141 3% 86%  
142 2% 83%  
143 5% 81%  
144 4% 76%  
145 3% 72%  
146 4% 69%  
147 3% 65%  
148 4% 61%  
149 6% 58%  
150 4% 52% Median
151 5% 48%  
152 5% 44%  
153 3% 39%  
154 3% 36%  
155 5% 33%  
156 3% 28%  
157 3% 25%  
158 2% 21%  
159 2% 19%  
160 2% 16%  
161 2% 15%  
162 3% 13%  
163 1.3% 10%  
164 2% 9%  
165 0.9% 7%  
166 1.1% 6%  
167 0.8% 5%  
168 0.9% 4%  
169 0.5% 3%  
170 0.7% 2%  
171 0.3% 2%  
172 0.3% 1.3%  
173 0.2% 1.1%  
174 0.2% 0.8%  
175 0.1% 0.6%  
176 0.2% 0.5%  
177 0.1% 0.3%  
178 0.1% 0.3%  
179 0% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.2% 99.6%  
100 0.2% 99.4%  
101 0.3% 99.1%  
102 0.3% 98.8%  
103 0.5% 98.5%  
104 1.0% 98%  
105 1.1% 97%  
106 1.1% 96%  
107 0.9% 95%  
108 1.4% 94%  
109 2% 92%  
110 3% 90%  
111 3% 88%  
112 2% 85%  
113 3% 83%  
114 4% 80%  
115 4% 76%  
116 5% 72%  
117 4% 67%  
118 4% 63%  
119 4% 59%  
120 5% 56%  
121 6% 51% Median
122 5% 45%  
123 5% 40%  
124 3% 36%  
125 3% 33%  
126 5% 30%  
127 5% 26%  
128 4% 21%  
129 2% 17%  
130 2% 15%  
131 3% 13%  
132 2% 11%  
133 2% 8%  
134 1.4% 7%  
135 0.7% 5%  
136 0.7% 4%  
137 0.9% 4%  
138 0.9% 3%  
139 0.4% 2%  
140 0.3% 1.4%  
141 0.2% 1.1%  
142 0.2% 0.9%  
143 0.2% 0.7%  
144 0.2% 0.5%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 0.2% 99.5%  
73 0.3% 99.3%  
74 0.5% 99.0%  
75 0.6% 98.6%  
76 0.8% 98%  
77 1.1% 97%  
78 2% 96%  
79 2% 94%  
80 2% 93% Last Result
81 2% 90%  
82 3% 88%  
83 4% 85%  
84 3% 81%  
85 4% 78%  
86 5% 74%  
87 5% 70%  
88 7% 65%  
89 4% 59%  
90 6% 54% Median
91 5% 49%  
92 5% 43%  
93 5% 38%  
94 4% 34%  
95 4% 30%  
96 3% 25%  
97 4% 22%  
98 3% 18%  
99 3% 15%  
100 3% 12%  
101 2% 10%  
102 1.4% 8%  
103 1.2% 6%  
104 1.2% 5%  
105 0.9% 4%  
106 0.6% 3%  
107 0.5% 2%  
108 0.4% 2%  
109 0.4% 1.3%  
110 0.2% 0.9%  
111 0.2% 0.7%  
112 0.2% 0.5%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.1% 99.6%  
59 0.4% 99.5%  
60 0.4% 99.1%  
61 0.7% 98.8%  
62 0.9% 98%  
63 1.0% 97%  
64 2% 96%  
65 2% 94%  
66 3% 92%  
67 3% 90%  
68 3% 87%  
69 4% 84%  
70 5% 80%  
71 5% 75%  
72 5% 70%  
73 6% 65%  
74 6% 59%  
75 5% 54% Median
76 6% 48%  
77 4% 43%  
78 6% 39%  
79 5% 33%  
80 5% 28%  
81 3% 23%  
82 3% 20%  
83 3% 16%  
84 3% 14%  
85 2% 11%  
86 2% 8%  
87 2% 7%  
88 1.0% 5%  
89 1.1% 4%  
90 0.7% 3%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.4% 2%  
93 0.2% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
95 0.2% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.2% 99.6%  
46 0.5% 99.4%  
47 0.5% 99.0%  
48 0.9% 98%  
49 1.3% 98%  
50 1.4% 96%  
51 2% 95%  
52 3% 92%  
53 3% 90%  
54 4% 86%  
55 4% 82%  
56 6% 78%  
57 5% 72%  
58 6% 68%  
59 6% 62%  
60 7% 56% Median
61 6% 49%  
62 6% 43%  
63 5% 36%  
64 5% 31%  
65 5% 27%  
66 4% 22%  
67 4% 18%  
68 3% 14%  
69 2% 11% Last Result
70 2% 9%  
71 2% 7%  
72 1.3% 5%  
73 1.0% 4%  
74 0.7% 3%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.4% 1.4%  
77 0.3% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 0.4% 99.6%  
29 0.6% 99.3%  
30 1.3% 98.7%  
31 1.0% 97%  
32 3% 96%  
33 3% 93%  
34 3% 91%  
35 6% 87%  
36 4% 81%  
37 8% 77%  
38 8% 69%  
39 5% 61%  
40 11% 56% Median
41 5% 46%  
42 7% 41%  
43 7% 33%  
44 5% 27%  
45 5% 22%  
46 4% 17% Last Result
47 3% 13%  
48 3% 10%  
49 2% 7%  
50 1.4% 5%  
51 1.1% 3%  
52 0.6% 2%  
53 0.6% 2%  
54 0.3% 1.1%  
55 0.3% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 483 100% 468–496 464–500 462–503 454–510
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 453 100% 438–467 434–470 431–474 423–481
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 423 100% 408–437 404–441 401–445 393–452
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 377 98% 363–392 359–396 355–400 348–407
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 361 75% 347–376 344–381 339–384 333–392
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 361 73% 347–375 342–379 338–383 331–391
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 332 2% 317–346 313–350 309–354 302–361
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 332 2% 317–347 313–351 309–354 303–362
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 302 0% 288–317 284–321 280–324 273–332
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 287 0% 273–302 269–306 265–310 259–316
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 257–285 252–289 249–292 242–299
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 211 0% 198–225 194–228 191–232 184–238
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 168–194 165–198 162–201 156–208

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 99.9%  
448 0% 99.9%  
449 0.1% 99.9%  
450 0.1% 99.9%  
451 0% 99.8%  
452 0.1% 99.7%  
453 0.1% 99.7%  
454 0.1% 99.6%  
455 0.1% 99.5%  
456 0.2% 99.4%  
457 0.2% 99.1%  
458 0.3% 98.9%  
459 0.3% 98.6%  
460 0.4% 98%  
461 0.3% 98%  
462 0.8% 98%  
463 0.6% 97%  
464 1.2% 96%  
465 1.4% 95%  
466 1.1% 94% Last Result
467 0.8% 92%  
468 2% 92%  
469 1.0% 90%  
470 2% 89%  
471 2% 86%  
472 3% 85%  
473 2% 82%  
474 3% 80%  
475 1.1% 76%  
476 3% 75%  
477 2% 72%  
478 4% 70%  
479 3% 65%  
480 5% 63%  
481 4% 58%  
482 3% 53% Median
483 3% 51%  
484 5% 47%  
485 2% 42%  
486 6% 40%  
487 2% 34%  
488 5% 33%  
489 1.4% 28%  
490 3% 26%  
491 1.1% 23%  
492 3% 22%  
493 3% 19%  
494 3% 16%  
495 2% 13%  
496 2% 11%  
497 1.1% 9%  
498 2% 8%  
499 0.6% 6%  
500 1.3% 5%  
501 0.7% 4%  
502 0.8% 3%  
503 0.3% 3%  
504 0.6% 2%  
505 0.2% 2%  
506 0.2% 1.5%  
507 0.2% 1.2%  
508 0.2% 1.0%  
509 0.3% 0.8%  
510 0.2% 0.6%  
511 0% 0.3%  
512 0.1% 0.3%  
513 0% 0.2%  
514 0.1% 0.2%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0.1% 99.8%  
421 0.1% 99.8%  
422 0.1% 99.7%  
423 0.1% 99.6%  
424 0.2% 99.5%  
425 0.2% 99.3%  
426 0.2% 99.1%  
427 0.2% 99.0%  
428 0.2% 98.7%  
429 0.3% 98.5%  
430 0.6% 98%  
431 0.7% 98%  
432 0.8% 97%  
433 0.5% 96%  
434 0.8% 96%  
435 0.7% 95%  
436 1.1% 94%  
437 2% 93%  
438 2% 91%  
439 1.3% 89%  
440 2% 88%  
441 2% 86%  
442 2% 84%  
443 2% 82%  
444 3% 79%  
445 3% 77%  
446 3% 73%  
447 4% 70%  
448 3% 66%  
449 2% 63%  
450 3% 61%  
451 3% 57% Median
452 4% 55%  
453 4% 50%  
454 4% 46%  
455 4% 43%  
456 3% 39%  
457 4% 36%  
458 3% 32%  
459 4% 29%  
460 3% 26%  
461 3% 23%  
462 2% 20%  
463 2% 18%  
464 2% 15%  
465 2% 13%  
466 1.3% 11%  
467 1.2% 10%  
468 2% 9%  
469 1.3% 7%  
470 1.2% 6%  
471 0.9% 5%  
472 0.7% 4%  
473 0.5% 3%  
474 0.6% 3%  
475 0.4% 2%  
476 0.3% 2%  
477 0.4% 1.5%  
478 0.2% 1.1%  
479 0.2% 0.9%  
480 0.1% 0.7%  
481 0.1% 0.5%  
482 0.1% 0.4%  
483 0.1% 0.3%  
484 0.1% 0.2%  
485 0% 0.2%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.8%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.7%  
393 0.1% 99.6%  
394 0.1% 99.5%  
395 0.2% 99.3%  
396 0.2% 99.1%  
397 0.2% 98.9%  
398 0.4% 98.6%  
399 0.4% 98%  
400 0.4% 98%  
401 0.6% 98%  
402 0.8% 97%  
403 0.6% 96%  
404 1.2% 95%  
405 1.0% 94%  
406 1.1% 93%  
407 2% 92%  
408 2% 91%  
409 1.3% 89%  
410 2% 88%  
411 2% 86%  
412 2% 84%  
413 3% 82%  
414 2% 79%  
415 3% 77%  
416 4% 74%  
417 3% 71%  
418 4% 68%  
419 4% 64%  
420 3% 60%  
421 3% 58%  
422 3% 54% Median
423 4% 51%  
424 3% 48%  
425 3% 45%  
426 4% 42%  
427 3% 38%  
428 3% 35%  
429 4% 32%  
430 3% 28%  
431 3% 25%  
432 3% 21%  
433 2% 19%  
434 2% 17%  
435 2% 15%  
436 2% 13%  
437 1.3% 11%  
438 1.4% 9%  
439 1.1% 8%  
440 1.0% 7%  
441 1.2% 6%  
442 0.8% 5%  
443 0.8% 4%  
444 0.5% 3%  
445 0.6% 3%  
446 0.5% 2%  
447 0.2% 1.5%  
448 0.3% 1.3%  
449 0.1% 1.0%  
450 0.2% 0.8%  
451 0.1% 0.6%  
452 0.1% 0.5%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.7%  
348 0.1% 99.6%  
349 0.1% 99.5%  
350 0.2% 99.3%  
351 0.2% 99.1%  
352 0.4% 98.9%  
353 0.3% 98.5%  
354 0.5% 98%  
355 0.4% 98% Majority
356 0.6% 97%  
357 0.8% 97%  
358 0.7% 96%  
359 0.8% 95%  
360 1.1% 94%  
361 1.1% 93%  
362 1.1% 92%  
363 2% 91%  
364 1.4% 89%  
365 1.3% 87%  
366 2% 86%  
367 2% 84%  
368 4% 82%  
369 2% 78%  
370 4% 76%  
371 3% 73%  
372 4% 70%  
373 3% 66%  
374 4% 64%  
375 3% 60%  
376 4% 57% Median
377 4% 54%  
378 4% 50%  
379 4% 46%  
380 3% 43%  
381 3% 40%  
382 4% 37%  
383 3% 33%  
384 3% 30%  
385 2% 27%  
386 3% 25%  
387 3% 22%  
388 2% 19%  
389 3% 17%  
390 2% 15%  
391 1.5% 13%  
392 1.5% 11%  
393 1.3% 10%  
394 1.2% 8%  
395 1.3% 7%  
396 0.8% 6%  
397 0.9% 5%  
398 0.6% 4%  
399 0.6% 3%  
400 0.6% 3%  
401 0.4% 2%  
402 0.3% 2%  
403 0.3% 2%  
404 0.3% 1.3%  
405 0.2% 1.0%  
406 0.2% 0.8%  
407 0.1% 0.6%  
408 0.1% 0.5%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.8%  
329 0% 99.8%  
330 0% 99.8%  
331 0.1% 99.7%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.2% 99.5%  
334 0.3% 99.4%  
335 0.2% 99.1%  
336 0.4% 98.9%  
337 0.4% 98%  
338 0.5% 98%  
339 0.3% 98%  
340 0.3% 97%  
341 0.5% 97%  
342 0.5% 96%  
343 0.7% 96%  
344 0.8% 95%  
345 1.1% 94%  
346 2% 93%  
347 2% 91%  
348 3% 89%  
349 2% 86%  
350 2% 84%  
351 2% 83%  
352 1.5% 81%  
353 1.3% 79%  
354 2% 78%  
355 2% 75% Majority
356 3% 73%  
357 3% 70%  
358 4% 67%  
359 5% 62%  
360 4% 57%  
361 4% 53% Median
362 5% 50%  
363 2% 45%  
364 2% 42%  
365 2% 40%  
366 2% 38%  
367 2% 36%  
368 3% 34%  
369 3% 30%  
370 4% 27%  
371 3% 23%  
372 3% 20%  
373 3% 17%  
374 2% 14%  
375 1.2% 12%  
376 1.1% 11%  
377 1.0% 10%  
378 1.0% 9%  
379 0.9% 8%  
380 1.0% 7%  
381 1.0% 6%  
382 0.9% 5%  
383 0.9% 4%  
384 0.6% 3%  
385 0.6% 2%  
386 0.4% 2%  
387 0.4% 1.5%  
388 0.1% 1.1%  
389 0.1% 1.0%  
390 0.1% 0.8%  
391 0.2% 0.7%  
392 0.1% 0.5%  
393 0.1% 0.5%  
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0.1% 0.2%  
396 0.1% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0% 99.8%  
330 0.1% 99.7%  
331 0.1% 99.6%  
332 0.1% 99.5%  
333 0.2% 99.4%  
334 0.2% 99.2%  
335 0.2% 99.0%  
336 0.4% 98.8%  
337 0.7% 98%  
338 0.4% 98%  
339 0.4% 97%  
340 0.5% 97%  
341 1.0% 96%  
342 1.1% 95%  
343 0.9% 94%  
344 0.9% 93%  
345 1.1% 93%  
346 1.3% 91%  
347 2% 90%  
348 1.2% 88%  
349 2% 87%  
350 2% 85%  
351 2% 84%  
352 2% 82%  
353 4% 80%  
354 3% 76%  
355 2% 73% Majority
356 3% 71%  
357 2% 68%  
358 6% 66%  
359 3% 60%  
360 5% 57%  
361 2% 52% Median
362 4% 50%  
363 3% 45%  
364 3% 42%  
365 4% 39%  
366 4% 36%  
367 3% 32%  
368 2% 29%  
369 4% 28%  
370 3% 24%  
371 2% 21%  
372 2% 19%  
373 2% 17%  
374 3% 15%  
375 3% 13%  
376 1.4% 10%  
377 1.1% 8%  
378 1.0% 7%  
379 1.3% 6%  
380 0.6% 5%  
381 0.7% 4%  
382 0.6% 4%  
383 0.5% 3%  
384 0.5% 2%  
385 0.3% 2%  
386 0.3% 2%  
387 0.3% 1.3%  
388 0.2% 1.0%  
389 0.1% 0.8%  
390 0.2% 0.7%  
391 0.1% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.5%  
303 0.2% 99.4%  
304 0.2% 99.2%  
305 0.3% 99.0%  
306 0.3% 98.7%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 0.4% 98%  
309 0.6% 98%  
310 0.6% 97%  
311 0.6% 97%  
312 0.9% 96%  
313 0.8% 95%  
314 1.3% 94%  
315 1.2% 93%  
316 1.3% 92%  
317 1.5% 90%  
318 1.5% 89%  
319 2% 87%  
320 3% 85%  
321 2% 83%  
322 3% 81%  
323 3% 78%  
324 2% 75%  
325 3% 73%  
326 3% 70%  
327 4% 67%  
328 3% 63%  
329 3% 60%  
330 4% 57%  
331 4% 54% Median
332 4% 50%  
333 4% 46%  
334 3% 43%  
335 4% 40%  
336 3% 36%  
337 4% 34%  
338 3% 30%  
339 4% 27%  
340 2% 24%  
341 4% 22%  
342 2% 18%  
343 2% 16%  
344 1.3% 14%  
345 1.4% 13%  
346 2% 11%  
347 1.1% 9%  
348 1.1% 8%  
349 1.1% 7%  
350 0.8% 6%  
351 0.7% 5%  
352 0.8% 4%  
353 0.6% 3%  
354 0.4% 3%  
355 0.5% 2% Majority
356 0.3% 2%  
357 0.4% 1.5%  
358 0.2% 1.1%  
359 0.2% 0.9%  
360 0.1% 0.7%  
361 0.1% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.6%  
303 0.1% 99.5%  
304 0.2% 99.4%  
305 0.2% 99.2%  
306 0.4% 99.0%  
307 0.4% 98.6%  
308 0.5% 98%  
309 0.3% 98%  
310 0.4% 97%  
311 0.4% 97%  
312 0.9% 97%  
313 0.9% 96%  
314 2% 95%  
315 1.1% 93%  
316 1.2% 92%  
317 1.2% 91%  
318 1.2% 90%  
319 2% 89%  
320 2% 87%  
321 3% 85%  
322 3% 82%  
323 3% 79%  
324 3% 77%  
325 2% 74%  
326 2% 72%  
327 2% 69%  
328 4% 68%  
329 4% 64%  
330 5% 60%  
331 4% 55%  
332 2% 51% Median
333 3% 49%  
334 3% 46%  
335 3% 43%  
336 3% 40%  
337 3% 37%  
338 5% 33%  
339 3% 29%  
340 3% 25%  
341 2% 23%  
342 2% 21%  
343 2% 19%  
344 2% 17%  
345 3% 15%  
346 2% 12%  
347 2% 10%  
348 1.0% 8%  
349 1.0% 7%  
350 0.8% 6%  
351 0.8% 6%  
352 0.9% 5%  
353 0.9% 4%  
354 0.7% 3%  
355 0.5% 2% Majority
356 0.3% 2%  
357 0.2% 2%  
358 0.2% 1.4%  
359 0.2% 1.2%  
360 0.2% 1.0%  
361 0.3% 0.8%  
362 0.1% 0.5%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.2% 99.5%  
275 0.1% 99.3%  
276 0.3% 99.1%  
277 0.3% 98.9%  
278 0.3% 98.5%  
279 0.6% 98%  
280 0.4% 98%  
281 0.7% 97%  
282 0.8% 97%  
283 0.7% 96%  
284 1.1% 95%  
285 1.0% 94%  
286 1.3% 93%  
287 1.1% 92%  
288 2% 91%  
289 2% 89%  
290 2% 87%  
291 3% 85%  
292 2% 82%  
293 2% 80%  
294 3% 78%  
295 3% 75%  
296 3% 72%  
297 3% 69%  
298 4% 66%  
299 2% 62%  
300 4% 60%  
301 5% 56% Median
302 3% 51%  
303 3% 47%  
304 3% 44%  
305 4% 41%  
306 2% 37%  
307 4% 35%  
308 3% 31%  
309 2% 29%  
310 3% 26%  
311 3% 23%  
312 2% 21%  
313 3% 18%  
314 1.4% 15%  
315 2% 14%  
316 2% 12%  
317 1.3% 10%  
318 2% 9%  
319 0.9% 7%  
320 1.0% 6%  
321 0.9% 5%  
322 0.7% 5%  
323 0.8% 4%  
324 0.6% 3%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.5% 2% Last Result
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.3% 1.3%  
329 0.2% 1.1%  
330 0.1% 0.8%  
331 0.2% 0.7%  
332 0.1% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.2% 99.5%  
260 0.2% 99.3%  
261 0.2% 99.1%  
262 0.3% 98.9%  
263 0.5% 98.5%  
264 0.4% 98%  
265 0.6% 98%  
266 0.5% 97%  
267 0.5% 97%  
268 0.6% 96%  
269 0.9% 96%  
270 0.7% 95%  
271 1.1% 94%  
272 2% 93%  
273 1.2% 91%  
274 2% 90%  
275 3% 88%  
276 2% 85%  
277 2% 83%  
278 4% 81%  
279 3% 76%  
280 3% 73%  
281 3% 70%  
282 3% 67%  
283 3% 64%  
284 3% 61%  
285 3% 58%  
286 3% 56% Median
287 3% 53%  
288 3% 50%  
289 5% 47%  
290 4% 43%  
291 3% 39%  
292 4% 35%  
293 3% 31%  
294 4% 28%  
295 3% 24%  
296 3% 21%  
297 2% 18%  
298 1.4% 16%  
299 2% 15%  
300 2% 13%  
301 1.1% 11%  
302 1.5% 10%  
303 1.0% 9%  
304 1.0% 8%  
305 0.9% 7%  
306 1.1% 6%  
307 0.8% 5%  
308 1.0% 4%  
309 0.5% 3%  
310 0.6% 3%  
311 0.5% 2%  
312 0.3% 1.5%  
313 0.2% 1.2%  
314 0.2% 1.0%  
315 0.1% 0.7%  
316 0.1% 0.6%  
317 0.1% 0.5%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0.1% 0.3%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.2% 99.5%  
244 0.1% 99.3%  
245 0.3% 99.1%  
246 0.2% 98.8%  
247 0.4% 98.6%  
248 0.4% 98%  
249 0.4% 98%  
250 0.8% 97%  
251 0.7% 96%  
252 0.9% 96%  
253 0.9% 95%  
254 2% 94%  
255 1.2% 92%  
256 1.1% 91%  
257 2% 90%  
258 1.3% 88%  
259 2% 87%  
260 2% 85%  
261 3% 83%  
262 3% 80%  
263 3% 78%  
264 2% 75%  
265 4% 73%  
266 4% 69%  
267 3% 65%  
268 3% 63%  
269 4% 60%  
270 6% 56%  
271 3% 50% Median
272 4% 47%  
273 4% 44%  
274 3% 40%  
275 3% 37%  
276 3% 33%  
277 3% 31%  
278 3% 27%  
279 3% 25%  
280 2% 22%  
281 3% 20%  
282 2% 17%  
283 3% 15%  
284 1.1% 12%  
285 2% 11%  
286 1.0% 9%  
287 1.5% 8%  
288 2% 7%  
289 0.6% 5%  
290 0.7% 5%  
291 0.5% 4%  
292 0.9% 3%  
293 0.4% 2%  
294 0.4% 2%  
295 0.2% 2%  
296 0.4% 1.4%  
297 0.2% 1.0%  
298 0.2% 0.8%  
299 0.2% 0.7%  
300 0.1% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.8%  
183 0.1% 99.7%  
184 0.1% 99.6%  
185 0.2% 99.5%  
186 0.2% 99.3%  
187 0.2% 99.1%  
188 0.3% 98.9%  
189 0.4% 98.6%  
190 0.6% 98%  
191 0.6% 98%  
192 0.8% 97%  
193 0.9% 96%  
194 1.0% 95%  
195 1.3% 94%  
196 1.4% 93%  
197 1.3% 91%  
198 2% 90%  
199 2% 88%  
200 2% 87%  
201 3% 85%  
202 2% 82%  
203 4% 79%  
204 2% 76%  
205 3% 73%  
206 3% 70%  
207 3% 68%  
208 4% 64%  
209 6% 60%  
210 4% 55%  
211 3% 51% Median
212 3% 48%  
213 3% 45%  
214 3% 42%  
215 3% 39%  
216 3% 35%  
217 5% 32%  
218 5% 28%  
219 3% 23%  
220 3% 20%  
221 1.5% 18%  
222 2% 16%  
223 2% 14%  
224 2% 12%  
225 2% 10%  
226 1.4% 9%  
227 2% 7%  
228 0.9% 5%  
229 0.6% 4%  
230 0.6% 4%  
231 0.5% 3%  
232 0.4% 3%  
233 0.4% 2% Last Result
234 0.4% 2%  
235 0.4% 1.3%  
236 0.2% 0.9%  
237 0.1% 0.7%  
238 0.1% 0.6%  
239 0.1% 0.5%  
240 0.1% 0.4%  
241 0.1% 0.3%  
242 0.1% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.1% 99.7%  
156 0.1% 99.6%  
157 0.2% 99.4%  
158 0.3% 99.3%  
159 0.4% 99.0%  
160 0.3% 98.5%  
161 0.6% 98%  
162 0.6% 98%  
163 0.8% 97%  
164 0.8% 96%  
165 1.0% 95%  
166 1.5% 94%  
167 2% 93%  
168 2% 91%  
169 2% 90%  
170 2% 87%  
171 2% 86%  
172 4% 83%  
173 2% 80%  
174 3% 77%  
175 3% 74%  
176 3% 71%  
177 5% 69%  
178 4% 64%  
179 3% 60%  
180 5% 57%  
181 4% 52% Median
182 3% 48%  
183 5% 45%  
184 4% 40%  
185 2% 36%  
186 4% 34%  
187 5% 30%  
188 2% 25%  
189 3% 24%  
190 3% 20%  
191 2% 17%  
192 2% 16%  
193 3% 13%  
194 2% 11%  
195 1.1% 9%  
196 2% 8%  
197 0.7% 6%  
198 1.1% 5%  
199 0.9% 4%  
200 0.4% 3%  
201 0.6% 3%  
202 0.5% 2%  
203 0.3% 2%  
204 0.3% 1.4%  
205 0.3% 1.1%  
206 0.1% 0.8%  
207 0.2% 0.7%  
208 0.1% 0.5%  
209 0.1% 0.4%  
210 0.1% 0.3%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.2%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations