Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 18–21 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.3–23.8% 19.7–24.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.4–20.8% 16.9–21.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.3–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.6–17.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.5% 12.1–16.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.5–11.7% 9.3–11.9% 8.9–12.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 166 157–174 154–176 152–179 147–182
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 143 135–151 132–153 130–155 127–160
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 116 109–124 107–126 105–128 102–132
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 105 98–112 96–114 94–116 91–120
Alternative für Deutschland 94 78 72–85 71–87 69–89 67–92
Die Linke 69 51 47–59 46–61 45–62 43–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 44–54 42–55 41–57 39–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.2% 99.7%  
148 0.2% 99.5%  
149 0.4% 99.3%  
150 0.6% 98.9%  
151 0.7% 98%  
152 1.1% 98%  
153 1.0% 97%  
154 1.3% 96%  
155 2% 94%  
156 3% 93%  
157 3% 90%  
158 3% 87%  
159 3% 84%  
160 4% 81%  
161 5% 77%  
162 5% 73%  
163 5% 68%  
164 5% 63%  
165 6% 58%  
166 6% 51% Median
167 6% 45%  
168 6% 39%  
169 5% 34%  
170 5% 29%  
171 4% 24%  
172 4% 19%  
173 4% 15%  
174 3% 12%  
175 2% 9%  
176 2% 7%  
177 1.4% 5%  
178 1.0% 4%  
179 0.9% 3%  
180 0.5% 2%  
181 0.4% 1.1%  
182 0.3% 0.7%  
183 0.2% 0.5%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.1% 99.7%  
127 0.3% 99.6%  
128 0.4% 99.2%  
129 0.4% 98.8%  
130 1.3% 98%  
131 1.0% 97%  
132 2% 96%  
133 1.5% 94%  
134 2% 92%  
135 3% 90%  
136 3% 87%  
137 6% 84%  
138 4% 78%  
139 7% 74%  
140 4% 67%  
141 7% 63%  
142 5% 57%  
143 5% 51% Median
144 9% 46%  
145 4% 38%  
146 8% 33%  
147 2% 25%  
148 5% 23%  
149 3% 18%  
150 3% 15%  
151 3% 12%  
152 1.3% 8%  
153 3% 7%  
154 0.8% 4%  
155 1.4% 4%  
156 0.5% 2%  
157 0.5% 2%  
158 0.4% 1.2%  
159 0.2% 0.8%  
160 0.3% 0.6%  
161 0.1% 0.3%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.2% 99.7%  
102 0.3% 99.5%  
103 0.4% 99.2%  
104 0.9% 98.8%  
105 1.0% 98%  
106 1.3% 97%  
107 2% 96%  
108 2% 94%  
109 3% 91%  
110 4% 88%  
111 4% 84%  
112 6% 81%  
113 6% 74%  
114 6% 69%  
115 8% 63%  
116 6% 55% Median
117 8% 50%  
118 6% 42%  
119 5% 36%  
120 7% 31%  
121 5% 24%  
122 4% 20%  
123 4% 16%  
124 3% 12%  
125 2% 9%  
126 2% 6%  
127 1.3% 5%  
128 1.2% 3%  
129 0.7% 2%  
130 0.5% 2%  
131 0.3% 1.0%  
132 0.3% 0.7%  
133 0.2% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.6%  
92 0.4% 99.3%  
93 0.6% 98.9%  
94 1.3% 98%  
95 1.2% 97%  
96 2% 96%  
97 3% 94%  
98 3% 91%  
99 5% 88%  
100 4% 83%  
101 6% 80%  
102 6% 74%  
103 5% 68%  
104 9% 62%  
105 6% 54% Median
106 7% 48%  
107 7% 41%  
108 5% 34%  
109 7% 29%  
110 4% 22%  
111 4% 18%  
112 4% 14%  
113 2% 10%  
114 3% 8%  
115 1.3% 5%  
116 1.2% 4%  
117 1.0% 2%  
118 0.4% 2%  
119 0.4% 1.1%  
120 0.2% 0.7%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.6%  
68 0.7% 99.2%  
69 1.2% 98.6%  
70 2% 97%  
71 2% 95%  
72 4% 93%  
73 5% 89%  
74 6% 84%  
75 6% 78%  
76 8% 71%  
77 10% 63%  
78 7% 54% Median
79 8% 47%  
80 8% 39%  
81 6% 31%  
82 4% 25%  
83 5% 20%  
84 4% 16%  
85 3% 11%  
86 2% 8%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.9% 3%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.3%  
92 0.3% 0.8%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.7%  
44 0.8% 99.4%  
45 2% 98.6%  
46 3% 97%  
47 5% 94%  
48 8% 88%  
49 10% 80%  
50 11% 70%  
51 12% 60% Median
52 9% 48%  
53 8% 39%  
54 6% 31%  
55 4% 25%  
56 3% 21%  
57 4% 18%  
58 3% 14%  
59 3% 11%  
60 2% 8%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.3% 3%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.7%  
40 0.7% 99.2%  
41 2% 98.5%  
42 3% 97%  
43 4% 94%  
44 6% 91%  
45 7% 85%  
46 8% 78% Last Result
47 10% 70%  
48 10% 60%  
49 11% 51% Median
50 9% 40%  
51 8% 31%  
52 7% 23%  
53 5% 16%  
54 4% 11%  
55 3% 7%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.1% 3%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.4% 1.0%  
60 0.3% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 474 100% 463–483 461–485 457–488 453–492
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 462 100% 452–472 449–474 446–476 441–480
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 436 100% 425–446 423–448 420–450 415–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 397 100% 388–408 385–411 382–413 377–418
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 365 89% 354–375 351–377 348–380 343–385
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 357 62% 346–367 344–370 341–372 336–377
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 331 0.2% 321–341 318–343 314–347 310–351
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 319 0% 309–329 306–332 303–334 298–339
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 312 0% 301–321 298–324 296–327 291–332
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 293 0% 283–303 280–305 277–308 272–313
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 259 0% 249–269 246–272 244–274 239–279
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 221 0% 212–231 209–234 207–236 203–241
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 168 0% 160–177 158–180 155–182 151–187

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 99.9%  
449 0.1% 99.9%  
450 0.1% 99.9%  
451 0.2% 99.8%  
452 0.1% 99.6%  
453 0.1% 99.5%  
454 0.2% 99.4%  
455 0.3% 99.2%  
456 0.6% 98.9%  
457 0.9% 98%  
458 0.5% 97%  
459 0.7% 97%  
460 0.9% 96%  
461 2% 95%  
462 2% 94%  
463 2% 92%  
464 2% 89%  
465 2% 87%  
466 3% 85% Last Result
467 3% 82%  
468 5% 79%  
469 5% 74%  
470 5% 69%  
471 4% 64%  
472 3% 60%  
473 5% 56%  
474 6% 51% Median
475 7% 45%  
476 5% 38%  
477 3% 33%  
478 4% 30%  
479 4% 27%  
480 5% 22%  
481 4% 17%  
482 2% 13%  
483 2% 11%  
484 1.4% 9%  
485 3% 8%  
486 2% 5%  
487 0.8% 3%  
488 0.7% 3%  
489 0.5% 2%  
490 0.4% 1.3%  
491 0.4% 0.9%  
492 0.2% 0.5%  
493 0.1% 0.3%  
494 0.1% 0.2%  
495 0.1% 0.2%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.8%  
440 0.2% 99.8%  
441 0.1% 99.6%  
442 0.2% 99.5%  
443 0.2% 99.3%  
444 0.3% 99.0%  
445 0.5% 98.7%  
446 0.9% 98%  
447 0.7% 97%  
448 1.0% 97%  
449 1.4% 96%  
450 2% 94%  
451 2% 93%  
452 2% 91%  
453 3% 88%  
454 3% 86%  
455 4% 83%  
456 4% 79%  
457 3% 75%  
458 3% 72%  
459 5% 69%  
460 4% 64%  
461 5% 60%  
462 6% 56%  
463 4% 50% Median
464 7% 45%  
465 4% 38%  
466 5% 34%  
467 3% 30%  
468 5% 26%  
469 5% 22%  
470 3% 16%  
471 2% 13%  
472 4% 11%  
473 2% 7%  
474 1.2% 5%  
475 0.8% 4%  
476 0.9% 3%  
477 0.9% 2%  
478 0.4% 1.3%  
479 0.4% 0.9%  
480 0.2% 0.5%  
481 0.1% 0.4%  
482 0.1% 0.3%  
483 0.1% 0.2%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0.1% 99.9%  
413 0.1% 99.8%  
414 0.1% 99.7%  
415 0.2% 99.6%  
416 0.3% 99.4%  
417 0.4% 99.2%  
418 0.4% 98.8%  
419 0.5% 98%  
420 0.7% 98%  
421 1.1% 97%  
422 1.0% 96%  
423 2% 95%  
424 2% 93%  
425 2% 92%  
426 2% 90%  
427 3% 88%  
428 2% 84%  
429 4% 82%  
430 4% 79%  
431 4% 75%  
432 4% 72%  
433 4% 67%  
434 4% 63%  
435 5% 59%  
436 6% 53% Median
437 4% 47%  
438 6% 44%  
439 5% 38%  
440 4% 33%  
441 5% 29%  
442 5% 25%  
443 4% 20%  
444 3% 16%  
445 2% 13%  
446 2% 11%  
447 2% 8%  
448 2% 6%  
449 1.1% 4%  
450 1.0% 3%  
451 0.8% 2%  
452 0.3% 1.4%  
453 0.5% 1.2%  
454 0.2% 0.7%  
455 0.2% 0.5%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0.1% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.2% 99.6%  
378 0.2% 99.5%  
379 0.3% 99.3%  
380 0.5% 98.9%  
381 0.6% 98%  
382 0.7% 98%  
383 1.0% 97%  
384 0.9% 96%  
385 1.4% 95%  
386 2% 94%  
387 2% 92%  
388 2% 90%  
389 3% 88%  
390 3% 86%  
391 3% 82%  
392 5% 79%  
393 3% 74%  
394 6% 71%  
395 5% 65%  
396 4% 60%  
397 6% 56%  
398 3% 50% Median
399 5% 47%  
400 5% 42%  
401 5% 37%  
402 3% 32%  
403 4% 29%  
404 5% 24%  
405 3% 19%  
406 3% 16%  
407 3% 13%  
408 2% 10%  
409 1.5% 8%  
410 1.2% 7%  
411 1.2% 5%  
412 1.0% 4%  
413 1.0% 3%  
414 0.5% 2%  
415 0.6% 2%  
416 0.4% 1.2%  
417 0.2% 0.8%  
418 0.2% 0.6%  
419 0.2% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.7%  
343 0.2% 99.6%  
344 0.2% 99.4%  
345 0.2% 99.2%  
346 0.5% 99.0%  
347 0.7% 98.5%  
348 0.8% 98%  
349 0.5% 97%  
350 1.0% 97%  
351 1.3% 96%  
352 2% 94%  
353 2% 92%  
354 1.4% 91%  
355 3% 89% Majority
356 3% 87%  
357 4% 84%  
358 3% 79%  
359 3% 76%  
360 4% 73%  
361 5% 69%  
362 6% 64%  
363 4% 58%  
364 4% 54% Median
365 6% 51%  
366 6% 45%  
367 4% 38%  
368 3% 34%  
369 3% 31%  
370 5% 28%  
371 5% 23%  
372 2% 18%  
373 3% 16%  
374 2% 13%  
375 3% 11%  
376 2% 8%  
377 1.3% 6%  
378 1.0% 5%  
379 0.8% 4%  
380 1.0% 3%  
381 0.8% 2%  
382 0.4% 1.4%  
383 0.2% 1.1%  
384 0.2% 0.8%  
385 0.2% 0.6%  
386 0.2% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.8%  
335 0.1% 99.7%  
336 0.2% 99.6%  
337 0.3% 99.4%  
338 0.3% 99.1%  
339 0.4% 98.8%  
340 0.5% 98%  
341 0.6% 98%  
342 0.9% 97%  
343 1.0% 96%  
344 2% 95%  
345 2% 94%  
346 2% 92%  
347 2% 90%  
348 3% 88%  
349 2% 85%  
350 4% 83%  
351 4% 79%  
352 4% 75%  
353 4% 71%  
354 5% 67%  
355 6% 62% Majority
356 4% 56%  
357 5% 52%  
358 5% 47% Median
359 5% 42%  
360 4% 37%  
361 4% 33%  
362 5% 29%  
363 3% 24%  
364 4% 21%  
365 3% 17%  
366 3% 14%  
367 3% 11%  
368 1.3% 9%  
369 2% 7%  
370 1.5% 6%  
371 1.0% 4%  
372 1.1% 3%  
373 0.5% 2%  
374 0.7% 2%  
375 0.3% 1.1%  
376 0.2% 0.9%  
377 0.2% 0.7%  
378 0.1% 0.4%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0.1% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0.1% 100%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.8%  
309 0.2% 99.8%  
310 0.4% 99.6%  
311 0.1% 99.2%  
312 0.1% 99.1%  
313 0.7% 98.9%  
314 0.8% 98%  
315 0.6% 97%  
316 0.3% 97%  
317 1.1% 96%  
318 2% 95%  
319 2% 93%  
320 0.6% 91%  
321 2% 91%  
322 5% 89%  
323 4% 84%  
324 1.2% 80%  
325 3% 78%  
326 7% 76%  
327 6% 68%  
328 2% 63%  
329 2% 61%  
330 8% 59%  
331 8% 51% Median
332 2% 44%  
333 2% 41%  
334 8% 39%  
335 5% 31%  
336 4% 26%  
337 1.1% 22%  
338 3% 21%  
339 7% 18%  
340 2% 12%  
341 0.5% 10%  
342 3% 10%  
343 2% 7%  
344 2% 5%  
345 0.2% 3%  
346 0.4% 3%  
347 1.4% 3%  
348 0.5% 1.5%  
349 0.1% 1.0%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.3% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.2% 99.7%  
299 0.2% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.3%  
301 0.4% 99.1%  
302 0.5% 98.7%  
303 0.7% 98%  
304 0.8% 97%  
305 0.7% 97%  
306 2% 96%  
307 1.4% 94%  
308 2% 93%  
309 2% 91%  
310 2% 89%  
311 3% 87%  
312 3% 84%  
313 3% 80%  
314 4% 77%  
315 4% 73%  
316 4% 69%  
317 5% 65%  
318 6% 60%  
319 4% 54%  
320 5% 50% Median
321 5% 45%  
322 4% 40%  
323 6% 36%  
324 5% 30%  
325 4% 26%  
326 3% 22% Last Result
327 3% 19%  
328 3% 15%  
329 2% 12%  
330 2% 10%  
331 2% 8%  
332 2% 6%  
333 1.0% 4%  
334 1.2% 3%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.3% 1.3%  
338 0.3% 0.9%  
339 0.3% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
290 0.2% 99.7%  
291 0.2% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.4%  
293 0.4% 99.2%  
294 0.6% 98.8%  
295 0.5% 98%  
296 1.0% 98%  
297 1.0% 97%  
298 1.2% 96%  
299 1.2% 95%  
300 1.5% 93%  
301 2% 92%  
302 3% 90%  
303 3% 87%  
304 3% 84%  
305 5% 81%  
306 4% 76%  
307 3% 71%  
308 5% 68%  
309 5% 63%  
310 5% 58% Median
311 3% 53%  
312 6% 50%  
313 4% 44%  
314 5% 40%  
315 6% 35%  
316 3% 29%  
317 5% 26%  
318 3% 21%  
319 3% 18%  
320 3% 14%  
321 2% 12%  
322 2% 10%  
323 2% 8%  
324 1.4% 6%  
325 0.9% 5%  
326 1.0% 4%  
327 0.7% 3%  
328 0.6% 2%  
329 0.5% 2%  
330 0.3% 1.1%  
331 0.2% 0.7%  
332 0.2% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.2% 99.7%  
273 0.3% 99.5%  
274 0.3% 99.2%  
275 0.3% 98.9%  
276 0.5% 98.6%  
277 0.7% 98%  
278 1.1% 97%  
279 1.2% 96%  
280 1.2% 95%  
281 2% 94%  
282 2% 92%  
283 3% 91%  
284 3% 87%  
285 3% 84%  
286 3% 81%  
287 4% 78%  
288 5% 74%  
289 4% 69%  
290 5% 65%  
291 4% 60%  
292 4% 55%  
293 6% 51% Median
294 5% 45%  
295 5% 40%  
296 4% 35%  
297 3% 31%  
298 6% 27%  
299 3% 22%  
300 4% 19%  
301 2% 15%  
302 3% 13%  
303 2% 10%  
304 2% 8%  
305 2% 6%  
306 1.0% 5%  
307 0.9% 4%  
308 0.6% 3%  
309 0.7% 2%  
310 0.4% 2%  
311 0.3% 1.2%  
312 0.2% 0.8%  
313 0.2% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.4%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0.1% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.2% 99.7%  
240 0.2% 99.5%  
241 0.4% 99.2%  
242 0.5% 98.9%  
243 0.4% 98%  
244 0.8% 98%  
245 1.0% 97%  
246 1.2% 96%  
247 2% 95%  
248 2% 93%  
249 2% 91%  
250 2% 89%  
251 3% 87%  
252 3% 84%  
253 3% 80%  
254 4% 77%  
255 5% 73%  
256 5% 68%  
257 4% 63%  
258 5% 59%  
259 5% 53% Median
260 5% 48%  
261 5% 43%  
262 5% 39%  
263 4% 33%  
264 5% 29%  
265 4% 24%  
266 4% 21%  
267 3% 17%  
268 2% 14%  
269 3% 12%  
270 2% 9%  
271 2% 7%  
272 1.4% 5%  
273 1.0% 4%  
274 0.7% 3%  
275 0.5% 2%  
276 0.6% 2%  
277 0.3% 1.2%  
278 0.3% 0.9%  
279 0.2% 0.6%  
280 0.2% 0.4%  
281 0.1% 0.3%  
282 0.1% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
198 0% 100%  
199 0.1% 99.9%  
200 0.1% 99.9%  
201 0.1% 99.8%  
202 0.1% 99.7%  
203 0.3% 99.5%  
204 0.4% 99.3%  
205 0.5% 98.9%  
206 0.6% 98%  
207 0.7% 98%  
208 1.2% 97%  
209 1.0% 96%  
210 1.3% 95%  
211 3% 94%  
212 2% 91%  
213 1.5% 89%  
214 5% 87%  
215 3% 83%  
216 3% 80%  
217 6% 77%  
218 6% 71%  
219 3% 65%  
220 6% 62%  
221 7% 56% Median
222 4% 49%  
223 5% 45%  
224 6% 40%  
225 4% 35%  
226 3% 30%  
227 7% 28%  
228 4% 21%  
229 2% 17%  
230 3% 15%  
231 2% 12%  
232 1.0% 9%  
233 2% 8% Last Result
234 2% 6%  
235 0.6% 4%  
236 1.0% 3%  
237 0.7% 2%  
238 0.4% 2%  
239 0.3% 1.3%  
240 0.4% 0.9%  
241 0.1% 0.5%  
242 0.1% 0.4%  
243 0.1% 0.3%  
244 0.1% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.5%  
153 0.4% 99.3%  
154 0.5% 98.8%  
155 0.9% 98%  
156 1.0% 97%  
157 1.3% 96%  
158 2% 95%  
159 2% 93%  
160 3% 91%  
161 2% 88%  
162 5% 86%  
163 3% 81%  
164 6% 77%  
165 4% 71%  
166 7% 68%  
167 5% 61% Median
168 6% 56%  
169 6% 49%  
170 4% 43%  
171 7% 39%  
172 3% 32%  
173 7% 29%  
174 3% 23%  
175 5% 20%  
176 2% 15%  
177 3% 13%  
178 2% 10%  
179 2% 8%  
180 2% 6%  
181 1.0% 4%  
182 1.1% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.4% 1.2%  
186 0.3% 0.9%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.2% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations