Opinion Poll by Kantar, 15–22 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.9% 21.6–24.4% 21.2–24.8% 20.8–25.2% 20.2–25.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.2% 17.9–20.6% 17.5–20.9% 17.2–21.3% 16.6–22.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.2% 16.0–18.5% 15.6–18.9% 15.3–19.3% 14.8–19.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.1% 10.1–12.3% 9.8–12.6% 9.6–12.9% 9.1–13.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.1% 9.1–11.2% 8.8–11.5% 8.6–11.8% 8.2–12.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.1% 6.3–8.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.8–8.5% 5.5–9.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.4% 4.3–6.6% 3.9–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 174 163–185 160–188 158–191 153–196
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 142 133–153 131–158 129–162 125–168
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 131 121–141 118–143 116–146 112–151
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 84 77–93 75–95 73–97 69–102
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 69–85 67–87 65–89 62–93
Die Linke 69 59 50–63 45–65 43–66 40–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 42 36–48 35–50 33–52 30–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.2% 99.6%  
154 0.2% 99.4%  
155 0.4% 99.2%  
156 0.6% 98.9%  
157 0.6% 98%  
158 0.6% 98%  
159 1.1% 97%  
160 1.0% 96%  
161 1.2% 95%  
162 2% 94%  
163 2% 92%  
164 2% 90%  
165 3% 88%  
166 3% 85%  
167 3% 81%  
168 4% 78%  
169 3% 74%  
170 4% 71%  
171 6% 67%  
172 4% 61%  
173 4% 57%  
174 5% 52% Median
175 5% 48%  
176 4% 43%  
177 5% 38%  
178 4% 33%  
179 3% 29%  
180 4% 26%  
181 3% 21%  
182 3% 18%  
183 2% 15%  
184 2% 13%  
185 2% 11%  
186 2% 8%  
187 1.3% 7%  
188 1.2% 5%  
189 1.0% 4%  
190 0.7% 3%  
191 0.7% 3%  
192 0.5% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.5%  
194 0.3% 1.1%  
195 0.2% 0.8%  
196 0.2% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.2% Last Result
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.2% 99.7%  
125 0.3% 99.5%  
126 0.4% 99.2%  
127 0.6% 98.8%  
128 0.7% 98%  
129 1.1% 98%  
130 1.2% 96%  
131 2% 95%  
132 2% 93%  
133 3% 91%  
134 3% 88%  
135 4% 85%  
136 4% 81%  
137 5% 78%  
138 5% 73%  
139 5% 68%  
140 6% 63%  
141 6% 58%  
142 5% 51% Median
143 5% 46%  
144 5% 42%  
145 4% 36%  
146 5% 32%  
147 3% 27%  
148 3% 24%  
149 3% 20%  
150 3% 17%  
151 2% 15%  
152 2% 13%  
153 2% 11%  
154 1.2% 9%  
155 1.1% 8%  
156 0.9% 7%  
157 0.9% 6%  
158 0.6% 5%  
159 0.8% 5%  
160 0.6% 4%  
161 0.6% 3%  
162 0.5% 3%  
163 0.4% 2%  
164 0.4% 2%  
165 0.4% 2%  
166 0.3% 1.1%  
167 0.1% 0.9%  
168 0.2% 0.7%  
169 0.1% 0.5%  
170 0.1% 0.4%  
171 0.1% 0.3%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.2% 99.6%  
113 0.3% 99.4%  
114 0.4% 99.1%  
115 0.5% 98.7%  
116 0.7% 98%  
117 1.0% 97%  
118 2% 96%  
119 1.4% 95%  
120 2% 93%  
121 2% 91%  
122 3% 89%  
123 2% 86%  
124 4% 84%  
125 5% 80%  
126 3% 75%  
127 5% 72%  
128 6% 67%  
129 4% 61%  
130 6% 57%  
131 5% 51% Median
132 6% 46%  
133 5% 41%  
134 5% 35%  
135 4% 30%  
136 4% 26%  
137 4% 22%  
138 4% 18%  
139 3% 15%  
140 2% 12%  
141 2% 10%  
142 1.3% 8%  
143 1.4% 6%  
144 1.0% 5%  
145 1.3% 4%  
146 0.5% 3%  
147 0.7% 2%  
148 0.5% 1.5%  
149 0.2% 1.0%  
150 0.2% 0.8%  
151 0.2% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.5%  
71 0.5% 99.1%  
72 0.8% 98.6%  
73 1.0% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 2% 93%  
77 3% 91%  
78 4% 88%  
79 4% 83%  
80 5% 79% Last Result
81 5% 74%  
82 7% 69%  
83 6% 62%  
84 6% 56% Median
85 6% 50%  
86 6% 44%  
87 5% 38%  
88 6% 33%  
89 5% 28%  
90 5% 23%  
91 3% 18%  
92 3% 14%  
93 3% 11%  
94 2% 9%  
95 2% 6%  
96 1.4% 5%  
97 1.0% 4%  
98 0.8% 2%  
99 0.5% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.2%  
101 0.2% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.2% 99.6%  
63 0.5% 99.4%  
64 0.7% 99.0%  
65 0.8% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 1.3% 96%  
68 3% 95%  
69 3% 92%  
70 3% 89%  
71 5% 85%  
72 4% 80%  
73 7% 76%  
74 5% 70%  
75 7% 64%  
76 7% 57% Median
77 5% 50%  
78 8% 45%  
79 5% 37%  
80 6% 32%  
81 5% 26%  
82 4% 21%  
83 4% 17%  
84 2% 13%  
85 3% 10%  
86 2% 7%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.3% 4%  
89 0.8% 3%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.4%  
92 0.4% 1.0%  
93 0.2% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.6% 99.4%  
42 0.7% 98.8%  
43 1.2% 98%  
44 1.5% 97%  
45 1.0% 95%  
46 1.2% 94%  
47 1.2% 93%  
48 0.9% 92%  
49 0.7% 91%  
50 0.7% 90%  
51 1.0% 90%  
52 2% 89%  
53 2% 87%  
54 2% 85%  
55 4% 83%  
56 8% 79%  
57 8% 71%  
58 9% 63%  
59 12% 54% Median
60 10% 41%  
61 10% 31%  
62 7% 22%  
63 5% 15%  
64 4% 10%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.2% 3%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.7%  
31 0.5% 99.5%  
32 0.8% 99.0%  
33 1.2% 98%  
34 2% 97%  
35 3% 95%  
36 3% 93%  
37 5% 89%  
38 6% 84%  
39 6% 79%  
40 6% 72%  
41 10% 66%  
42 8% 56% Median
43 8% 49%  
44 8% 41%  
45 8% 32%  
46 5% 25% Last Result
47 5% 20%  
48 4% 14%  
49 3% 10%  
50 2% 7%  
51 2% 5%  
52 1.0% 3%  
53 0.8% 2%  
54 0.4% 1.0%  
55 0.3% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 489 100% 478–502 475–505 472–508 467–515
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 443 100% 432–456 428–460 426–463 420–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 432 100% 420–444 416–447 413–450 407–457
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 377 99.0% 365–391 362–394 359–396 352–404
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 357 62% 346–372 343–376 340–381 335–389
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 359 67% 346–372 343–375 340–379 334–386
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 347 23% 335–360 331–363 328–366 322–372
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 332 1.0% 318–344 315–347 313–350 305–357
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 301 0% 289–314 286–317 282–320 276–326
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 293 0% 280–305 277–309 275–312 269–318
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 273 0% 262–286 259–291 256–296 251–303
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 215 0% 204–227 201–230 198–233 193–239
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 189 0% 177–199 174–202 170–205 164–210

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
461 0% 100%  
462 0% 99.9%  
463 0% 99.9%  
464 0% 99.9%  
465 0.1% 99.8%  
466 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
467 0.2% 99.6%  
468 0.3% 99.4%  
469 0.3% 99.2%  
470 0.4% 98.8%  
471 0.4% 98%  
472 0.6% 98%  
473 0.6% 97%  
474 0.9% 97%  
475 1.2% 96%  
476 2% 95%  
477 2% 93%  
478 2% 91%  
479 2% 89%  
480 2% 87%  
481 3% 85%  
482 2% 82%  
483 3% 80%  
484 4% 76%  
485 4% 73%  
486 4% 68%  
487 7% 64%  
488 3% 57%  
489 4% 54% Median
490 3% 49%  
491 4% 46%  
492 5% 42%  
493 3% 37%  
494 3% 34%  
495 5% 31%  
496 4% 26%  
497 3% 22%  
498 3% 19%  
499 3% 16%  
500 2% 13%  
501 1.3% 12%  
502 2% 10%  
503 2% 9%  
504 1.2% 7%  
505 1.0% 6%  
506 0.9% 5%  
507 0.8% 4%  
508 0.5% 3%  
509 0.4% 2%  
510 0.4% 2%  
511 0.3% 2%  
512 0.3% 1.3%  
513 0.2% 1.1%  
514 0.2% 0.8%  
515 0.2% 0.6%  
516 0.1% 0.5%  
517 0.1% 0.4%  
518 0.1% 0.3%  
519 0% 0.2%  
520 0% 0.2%  
521 0% 0.2%  
522 0% 0.2%  
523 0% 0.1%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0.1%  
527 0% 0.1%  
528 0% 0.1%  
529 0% 0.1%  
530 0% 0.1%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.8%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.7%  
420 0.1% 99.6%  
421 0.2% 99.4%  
422 0.4% 99.2%  
423 0.3% 98.8%  
424 0.3% 98.5%  
425 0.3% 98%  
426 1.0% 98%  
427 0.9% 97%  
428 1.4% 96%  
429 0.9% 95%  
430 1.4% 94%  
431 2% 92%  
432 1.5% 90%  
433 3% 89%  
434 2% 85%  
435 2% 83%  
436 3% 81%  
437 4% 78%  
438 4% 74%  
439 3% 70%  
440 3% 67%  
441 5% 64%  
442 6% 58% Median
443 3% 53%  
444 4% 50%  
445 4% 45%  
446 5% 41%  
447 3% 37%  
448 3% 34%  
449 4% 31%  
450 3% 26%  
451 2% 23%  
452 3% 21%  
453 3% 17%  
454 2% 15%  
455 1.4% 13%  
456 2% 11%  
457 2% 10%  
458 1.2% 8%  
459 2% 7%  
460 0.8% 5%  
461 0.7% 4%  
462 0.9% 4%  
463 0.5% 3%  
464 0.5% 2%  
465 0.3% 2%  
466 0.4% 2%  
467 0.2% 1.2%  
468 0.2% 1.0%  
469 0.2% 0.8%  
470 0.2% 0.6%  
471 0.1% 0.5%  
472 0.1% 0.4%  
473 0.1% 0.3%  
474 0.1% 0.3%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.8%  
405 0.1% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.7%  
407 0.2% 99.6%  
408 0.2% 99.5%  
409 0.3% 99.3%  
410 0.3% 99.0%  
411 0.4% 98.7%  
412 0.4% 98%  
413 0.5% 98%  
414 0.8% 97%  
415 1.1% 97%  
416 1.0% 96%  
417 1.4% 95%  
418 1.2% 93%  
419 1.3% 92%  
420 1.4% 91%  
421 2% 89%  
422 3% 87%  
423 3% 84%  
424 3% 81%  
425 3% 78%  
426 3% 75%  
427 4% 72%  
428 5% 68%  
429 3% 63%  
430 4% 60%  
431 5% 56% Median
432 4% 51%  
433 5% 47%  
434 4% 43%  
435 3% 38%  
436 4% 35%  
437 4% 32%  
438 3% 28%  
439 3% 25%  
440 4% 22%  
441 3% 18%  
442 3% 15%  
443 2% 13%  
444 1.2% 11%  
445 2% 10%  
446 2% 8%  
447 1.4% 6%  
448 1.1% 5%  
449 0.9% 4%  
450 0.6% 3%  
451 0.4% 2%  
452 0.5% 2%  
453 0.2% 1.5%  
454 0.3% 1.3%  
455 0.3% 0.9%  
456 0.1% 0.6%  
457 0.1% 0.5%  
458 0.1% 0.4%  
459 0.1% 0.3%  
460 0% 0.3%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.2% 99.7%  
353 0.2% 99.5%  
354 0.3% 99.3%  
355 0.2% 99.0% Majority
356 0.3% 98.8%  
357 0.2% 98.6%  
358 0.3% 98%  
359 0.6% 98%  
360 0.7% 97%  
361 1.1% 97%  
362 2% 96%  
363 2% 94%  
364 2% 92%  
365 1.2% 91%  
366 2% 89%  
367 2% 87%  
368 2% 86%  
369 2% 84%  
370 2% 82%  
371 4% 80%  
372 3% 76%  
373 6% 72%  
374 5% 66%  
375 4% 61%  
376 4% 57% Median
377 3% 53%  
378 3% 50%  
379 3% 47%  
380 2% 45%  
381 4% 42%  
382 5% 38%  
383 5% 33%  
384 4% 28%  
385 4% 24%  
386 3% 20%  
387 2% 17%  
388 2% 15%  
389 1.1% 13%  
390 2% 12%  
391 2% 10%  
392 2% 9%  
393 1.4% 7%  
394 2% 6%  
395 0.8% 4%  
396 0.9% 3%  
397 0.5% 2%  
398 0.4% 2%  
399 0.2% 2%  
400 0.2% 1.4%  
401 0.2% 1.1%  
402 0.2% 1.0%  
403 0.2% 0.7%  
404 0.2% 0.6%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.8%  
334 0.1% 99.7%  
335 0.2% 99.6%  
336 0.2% 99.4%  
337 0.3% 99.2%  
338 0.5% 98.9%  
339 0.5% 98%  
340 0.6% 98%  
341 0.8% 97%  
342 1.0% 96%  
343 1.1% 95%  
344 2% 94%  
345 2% 93%  
346 2% 91%  
347 2% 90%  
348 3% 87%  
349 3% 84%  
350 3% 82%  
351 3% 78%  
352 4% 75%  
353 4% 70%  
354 4% 67%  
355 4% 62% Majority
356 5% 58%  
357 5% 53% Median
358 4% 49%  
359 5% 45%  
360 4% 40%  
361 3% 36%  
362 3% 33%  
363 4% 29%  
364 2% 26%  
365 2% 23%  
366 2% 21%  
367 2% 19%  
368 2% 16%  
369 1.4% 14%  
370 2% 13%  
371 1.3% 11%  
372 1.4% 10%  
373 1.1% 9%  
374 1.2% 8%  
375 0.9% 7%  
376 0.7% 6%  
377 0.6% 5%  
378 0.6% 4%  
379 0.4% 4%  
380 0.3% 3%  
381 0.5% 3%  
382 0.5% 2%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.4% 2%  
385 0.3% 1.3%  
386 0.2% 1.0%  
387 0.1% 0.8%  
388 0.2% 0.7%  
389 0.1% 0.5%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.6%  
335 0.2% 99.5%  
336 0.2% 99.3%  
337 0.3% 99.1%  
338 0.4% 98.8%  
339 0.4% 98%  
340 0.7% 98%  
341 0.8% 97%  
342 0.8% 97%  
343 0.9% 96%  
344 2% 95%  
345 1.4% 93%  
346 2% 92%  
347 2% 90%  
348 2% 88%  
349 3% 86%  
350 3% 83%  
351 4% 80%  
352 3% 77%  
353 3% 74%  
354 3% 70%  
355 4% 67% Majority
356 4% 63%  
357 4% 59%  
358 3% 56% Median
359 4% 52%  
360 5% 48%  
361 4% 43%  
362 3% 39%  
363 5% 36%  
364 4% 31%  
365 3% 27%  
366 3% 24%  
367 3% 21%  
368 2% 19%  
369 2% 17%  
370 2% 14%  
371 2% 12%  
372 2% 10%  
373 2% 9%  
374 1.3% 7%  
375 1.0% 6%  
376 0.8% 5%  
377 0.7% 4%  
378 0.5% 3%  
379 0.5% 3%  
380 0.4% 2%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.3% 1.5%  
383 0.2% 1.2%  
384 0.2% 0.9%  
385 0.2% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.2% 99.7%  
322 0.1% 99.5%  
323 0.3% 99.4%  
324 0.2% 99.2%  
325 0.3% 99.0%  
326 0.3% 98.7%  
327 0.6% 98%  
328 0.5% 98%  
329 0.6% 97%  
330 1.1% 97%  
331 1.0% 96%  
332 1.0% 95%  
333 1.5% 94%  
334 2% 92%  
335 1.5% 90%  
336 2% 89%  
337 2% 86%  
338 3% 85%  
339 3% 82%  
340 3% 79%  
341 3% 75%  
342 4% 72%  
343 4% 68%  
344 4% 64%  
345 3% 60%  
346 5% 57%  
347 4% 53% Median
348 2% 48%  
349 5% 46%  
350 5% 41%  
351 4% 36%  
352 2% 32%  
353 5% 30%  
354 2% 25%  
355 3% 23% Majority
356 2% 20%  
357 4% 18%  
358 2% 14%  
359 2% 13%  
360 2% 10%  
361 1.1% 8%  
362 2% 7%  
363 1.1% 6%  
364 0.7% 5%  
365 0.8% 4%  
366 0.8% 3%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.4% 2%  
369 0.5% 2%  
370 0.2% 1.1%  
371 0.1% 0.8%  
372 0.2% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.5%  
374 0.1% 0.4%  
375 0.1% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.2% 99.6%  
306 0.2% 99.4%  
307 0.2% 99.3%  
308 0.2% 99.0%  
309 0.2% 98.9%  
310 0.2% 98.6%  
311 0.4% 98%  
312 0.5% 98%  
313 0.9% 98%  
314 0.8% 97%  
315 2% 96%  
316 1.4% 94%  
317 2% 93%  
318 2% 91%  
319 2% 90%  
320 1.1% 88%  
321 2% 87%  
322 2% 85%  
323 3% 83%  
324 4% 80%  
325 4% 76%  
326 5% 72%  
327 5% 67%  
328 4% 62%  
329 2% 58%  
330 3% 55%  
331 3% 53%  
332 3% 50% Median
333 4% 47%  
334 4% 43%  
335 5% 39%  
336 6% 34%  
337 3% 28%  
338 4% 24%  
339 2% 20%  
340 2% 18%  
341 2% 16%  
342 2% 14%  
343 2% 13%  
344 1.2% 11%  
345 2% 9%  
346 2% 8%  
347 2% 6%  
348 1.1% 4%  
349 0.7% 3%  
350 0.6% 3%  
351 0.3% 2%  
352 0.2% 2%  
353 0.3% 1.4%  
354 0.2% 1.2%  
355 0.3% 1.0% Majority
356 0.2% 0.7%  
357 0.2% 0.5%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.2% 99.3%  
279 0.2% 99.1%  
280 0.4% 98.9%  
281 0.4% 98%  
282 0.7% 98%  
283 0.6% 97%  
284 0.7% 97%  
285 1.0% 96%  
286 1.2% 95%  
287 1.2% 94%  
288 2% 93%  
289 2% 91%  
290 2% 89%  
291 2% 87%  
292 4% 85%  
293 2% 80%  
294 3% 78%  
295 3% 75%  
296 4% 72%  
297 4% 68%  
298 4% 63%  
299 4% 60%  
300 5% 56% Median
301 4% 51%  
302 3% 48%  
303 4% 45%  
304 5% 40%  
305 3% 36%  
306 4% 32%  
307 2% 29%  
308 4% 27%  
309 3% 22%  
310 3% 19%  
311 2% 17%  
312 2% 14%  
313 2% 12%  
314 2% 10%  
315 1.2% 8%  
316 1.4% 7%  
317 1.2% 6%  
318 0.6% 4%  
319 1.0% 4%  
320 0.6% 3%  
321 0.4% 2%  
322 0.4% 2%  
323 0.3% 1.4%  
324 0.3% 1.1%  
325 0.2% 0.8%  
326 0.1% 0.6% Last Result
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.7%  
269 0.3% 99.6%  
270 0.3% 99.3%  
271 0.2% 99.0%  
272 0.3% 98.8%  
273 0.2% 98.5%  
274 0.5% 98%  
275 1.2% 98%  
276 1.0% 97%  
277 2% 96%  
278 1.3% 94%  
279 1.3% 92%  
280 1.2% 91%  
281 0.5% 90%  
282 1.5% 89%  
283 2% 88%  
284 3% 85%  
285 6% 83%  
286 2% 76%  
287 4% 74%  
288 2% 70%  
289 1.1% 68%  
290 4% 67%  
291 4% 64%  
292 5% 60% Median
293 9% 55%  
294 3% 46%  
295 6% 43%  
296 1.2% 37%  
297 2% 36%  
298 3% 34%  
299 2% 31%  
300 6% 28%  
301 5% 22%  
302 3% 18%  
303 3% 15%  
304 0.7% 12%  
305 1.5% 11%  
306 1.1% 10%  
307 1.4% 8%  
308 2% 7%  
309 0.6% 5%  
310 2% 5%  
311 0.3% 3%  
312 0.3% 3%  
313 0.4% 2%  
314 0.2% 2%  
315 0.4% 2%  
316 0.5% 1.3%  
317 0.1% 0.9%  
318 0.3% 0.7%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.2% 99.5%  
252 0.3% 99.3%  
253 0.3% 99.0%  
254 0.5% 98.7%  
255 0.6% 98%  
256 0.7% 98%  
257 0.8% 97%  
258 0.9% 96%  
259 1.3% 95%  
260 2% 94%  
261 2% 92%  
262 2% 90%  
263 2% 88%  
264 3% 86%  
265 3% 83%  
266 4% 80%  
267 5% 76%  
268 3% 71%  
269 4% 68%  
270 3% 63%  
271 5% 60%  
272 5% 55%  
273 4% 50% Median
274 4% 46%  
275 4% 43%  
276 4% 39%  
277 5% 35%  
278 3% 30%  
279 4% 27%  
280 3% 24%  
281 2% 21%  
282 3% 19%  
283 2% 16%  
284 2% 14%  
285 2% 12%  
286 1.1% 11%  
287 1.2% 10%  
288 1.2% 9%  
289 1.2% 7%  
290 1.0% 6%  
291 0.5% 5%  
292 0.6% 5%  
293 0.5% 4%  
294 0.7% 4%  
295 0.4% 3%  
296 0.4% 3%  
297 0.5% 2%  
298 0.4% 2%  
299 0.3% 1.4%  
300 0.3% 1.1%  
301 0.2% 0.9%  
302 0.1% 0.7%  
303 0.1% 0.5%  
304 0.1% 0.4%  
305 0.1% 0.3%  
306 0% 0.3%  
307 0.1% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.8%  
192 0.1% 99.7%  
193 0.1% 99.5%  
194 0.3% 99.4%  
195 0.3% 99.1%  
196 0.5% 98.9%  
197 0.5% 98%  
198 0.6% 98%  
199 1.2% 97%  
200 0.6% 96%  
201 1.3% 96%  
202 1.3% 94%  
203 2% 93%  
204 2% 91%  
205 2% 89%  
206 3% 87%  
207 3% 84%  
208 3% 82%  
209 2% 78%  
210 5% 76%  
211 5% 71%  
212 3% 66%  
213 5% 64%  
214 5% 59%  
215 4% 54% Median
216 3% 49%  
217 5% 46%  
218 5% 41%  
219 4% 36%  
220 4% 33%  
221 3% 29%  
222 4% 26%  
223 3% 21%  
224 2% 18%  
225 3% 16%  
226 2% 13%  
227 2% 11%  
228 2% 9%  
229 1.3% 7%  
230 2% 6%  
231 0.7% 5%  
232 0.8% 4%  
233 0.9% 3% Last Result
234 0.4% 2%  
235 0.4% 2%  
236 0.3% 1.4%  
237 0.4% 1.1%  
238 0.2% 0.7%  
239 0.1% 0.5%  
240 0.1% 0.4%  
241 0.1% 0.3%  
242 0.1% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.8%  
160 0% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.1% 99.7%  
163 0.1% 99.6%  
164 0.1% 99.5%  
165 0.2% 99.4%  
166 0.2% 99.2%  
167 0.3% 98.9%  
168 0.3% 98.6%  
169 0.4% 98%  
170 0.5% 98%  
171 0.6% 97%  
172 0.6% 97%  
173 0.9% 96%  
174 1.1% 95%  
175 1.3% 94%  
176 1.4% 93%  
177 2% 91%  
178 2% 90%  
179 2% 88%  
180 3% 85%  
181 3% 83%  
182 3% 80%  
183 3% 77%  
184 3% 74%  
185 4% 70%  
186 5% 66%  
187 4% 61%  
188 5% 57%  
189 4% 52%  
190 5% 47% Median
191 4% 42%  
192 6% 38%  
193 4% 33%  
194 4% 29%  
195 5% 25%  
196 3% 20%  
197 3% 17%  
198 2% 14%  
199 3% 12%  
200 2% 10%  
201 1.4% 8%  
202 2% 6%  
203 1.0% 5%  
204 0.8% 4%  
205 0.8% 3%  
206 0.4% 2%  
207 0.6% 2%  
208 0.3% 1.1%  
209 0.2% 0.8%  
210 0.2% 0.6%  
211 0.1% 0.4%  
212 0.1% 0.3%  
213 0.1% 0.2%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations