Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 21–25 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.3–24.4% 20.9–24.8% 20.5–25.2% 19.8–26.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.6–20.6% 17.3–21.0% 16.9–21.4% 16.3–22.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.7–18.5% 15.3–18.9% 15.0–19.3% 14.4–20.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.5–13.6% 10.3–13.9% 9.7–14.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.8–13.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.7% 3.8–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 171 160–183 157–187 154–190 149–195
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 144 133–154 129–157 127–161 122–165
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 128 118–139 115–142 113–145 108–150
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 90 82–99 79–102 77–105 73–109
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 74–91 72–94 70–97 66–101
Die Linke 69 53 46–60 44–62 43–64 40–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 34–46 32–48 31–50 28–53

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.1% 99.7%  
149 0.1% 99.5%  
150 0.3% 99.4%  
151 0.3% 99.1%  
152 0.4% 98.8%  
153 0.6% 98%  
154 0.7% 98%  
155 0.8% 97%  
156 0.9% 96%  
157 1.5% 95%  
158 2% 94%  
159 2% 92%  
160 2% 91%  
161 3% 89%  
162 2% 86%  
163 3% 83%  
164 4% 81%  
165 3% 77%  
166 4% 74%  
167 4% 70%  
168 3% 66%  
169 5% 63%  
170 4% 57%  
171 5% 53% Median
172 4% 48%  
173 4% 44%  
174 4% 40%  
175 3% 35%  
176 4% 32%  
177 3% 28%  
178 4% 25%  
179 2% 21%  
180 3% 18%  
181 3% 16%  
182 2% 13%  
183 2% 11%  
184 1.3% 9%  
185 2% 7%  
186 0.7% 6%  
187 0.9% 5%  
188 1.1% 4%  
189 0.5% 3%  
190 0.8% 3%  
191 0.3% 2%  
192 0.3% 1.5%  
193 0.4% 1.1%  
194 0.2% 0.8%  
195 0.2% 0.6%  
196 0.1% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.2% 99.7%  
122 0.2% 99.5%  
123 0.2% 99.4%  
124 0.2% 99.2%  
125 0.3% 99.0%  
126 0.6% 98.7%  
127 0.8% 98%  
128 1.3% 97%  
129 2% 96%  
130 2% 94%  
131 1.4% 93%  
132 1.2% 91%  
133 1.1% 90%  
134 2% 89%  
135 3% 87%  
136 5% 84%  
137 5% 79%  
138 4% 74%  
139 4% 69%  
140 3% 65%  
141 2% 62%  
142 3% 59%  
143 4% 56%  
144 6% 52% Median
145 8% 46%  
146 6% 39%  
147 4% 32%  
148 3% 29%  
149 2% 25%  
150 2% 23%  
151 3% 21%  
152 3% 19%  
153 3% 16%  
154 3% 12%  
155 2% 9%  
156 1.3% 7%  
157 0.8% 5%  
158 0.6% 4%  
159 0.5% 4%  
160 0.6% 3%  
161 0.8% 3%  
162 0.5% 2%  
163 0.5% 1.4%  
164 0.3% 0.9%  
165 0.1% 0.6%  
166 0.1% 0.5%  
167 0.1% 0.4%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0.1% 0.2%  
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.7%  
108 0.2% 99.6%  
109 0.3% 99.4%  
110 0.3% 99.2%  
111 0.6% 98.9%  
112 0.4% 98%  
113 1.1% 98%  
114 0.7% 97%  
115 2% 96%  
116 2% 94%  
117 1.2% 93%  
118 4% 92%  
119 1.3% 88%  
120 4% 87%  
121 2% 82%  
122 4% 80%  
123 4% 76%  
124 3% 72%  
125 6% 68%  
126 3% 62%  
127 8% 59%  
128 3% 52% Median
129 7% 49%  
130 4% 43%  
131 4% 38%  
132 5% 34%  
133 3% 29%  
134 5% 26%  
135 2% 21%  
136 4% 20%  
137 2% 16%  
138 3% 13%  
139 2% 11%  
140 2% 9%  
141 2% 7%  
142 1.0% 6%  
143 1.2% 5%  
144 0.5% 3%  
145 0.9% 3%  
146 0.3% 2%  
147 0.6% 2%  
148 0.2% 1.1%  
149 0.3% 0.8%  
150 0.2% 0.6%  
151 0.1% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0% 0.2% Last Result
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.6%  
74 0.4% 99.5%  
75 0.5% 99.1%  
76 0.7% 98.5%  
77 1.0% 98%  
78 1.1% 97%  
79 1.4% 96%  
80 2% 94% Last Result
81 2% 93%  
82 3% 90%  
83 3% 88%  
84 4% 84%  
85 4% 80%  
86 5% 76%  
87 5% 71%  
88 6% 66%  
89 6% 60%  
90 5% 54% Median
91 6% 48%  
92 5% 43%  
93 6% 38%  
94 4% 32%  
95 3% 27%  
96 4% 24%  
97 4% 19%  
98 3% 16%  
99 3% 13%  
100 2% 10%  
101 2% 8%  
102 1.4% 6%  
103 1.3% 5%  
104 0.8% 3%  
105 0.7% 3%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 0.4% 1.3%  
108 0.2% 1.0%  
109 0.2% 0.7%  
110 0.2% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 0.3% 99.4%  
68 0.5% 99.1%  
69 0.8% 98.6%  
70 0.7% 98%  
71 1.1% 97%  
72 2% 96%  
73 2% 95%  
74 3% 93%  
75 3% 90%  
76 5% 87%  
77 5% 83%  
78 5% 78%  
79 6% 73%  
80 5% 67%  
81 6% 62%  
82 6% 56% Median
83 5% 50%  
84 5% 45%  
85 5% 40%  
86 5% 35%  
87 6% 30%  
88 3% 24%  
89 4% 21%  
90 4% 16%  
91 3% 12%  
92 2% 10%  
93 1.4% 8%  
94 2% 6% Last Result
95 1.0% 4%  
96 0.7% 3%  
97 0.7% 3%  
98 0.5% 2%  
99 0.5% 1.5%  
100 0.4% 1.0%  
101 0.2% 0.7%  
102 0.1% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 99.5%  
41 0.6% 99.2%  
42 0.9% 98.6%  
43 1.2% 98%  
44 2% 96%  
45 3% 95%  
46 4% 92%  
47 4% 88%  
48 5% 84%  
49 7% 79%  
50 6% 73%  
51 7% 66%  
52 7% 59%  
53 7% 52% Median
54 7% 45%  
55 8% 38%  
56 5% 30%  
57 5% 25%  
58 4% 20%  
59 4% 16%  
60 3% 13%  
61 3% 9%  
62 2% 7%  
63 2% 5%  
64 0.9% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.5% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.8%  
29 0.4% 99.4%  
30 0.8% 99.0%  
31 2% 98%  
32 2% 97%  
33 3% 95%  
34 5% 92%  
35 7% 87%  
36 6% 80%  
37 7% 74%  
38 6% 67%  
39 9% 61%  
40 9% 51% Median
41 6% 42%  
42 8% 36%  
43 6% 28%  
44 5% 22%  
45 4% 17%  
46 4% 13% Last Result
47 3% 9%  
48 2% 6%  
49 1.4% 4%  
50 1.0% 3%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 0.4% 1.2%  
53 0.4% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 483 100% 471–495 466–499 463–502 458–508
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 445 100% 432–458 428–462 425–465 418–471
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 430 100% 417–443 413–447 410–450 403–457
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 384 99.8% 371–398 367–402 364–405 357–412
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 362 78% 348–376 345–380 341–383 335–390
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 355 50% 341–368 338–372 334–375 328–382
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 339 8% 326–353 323–357 319–360 313–367
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 325 0.2% 311–338 307–342 304–345 297–352
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 302 0% 289–314 285–318 281–323 275–329
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 293 0% 281–308 277–311 274–314 267–321
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 259–285 256–288 251–293 246–298
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 219 0% 206–231 203–235 200–238 194–244
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 170–193 166–197 163–200 158–206

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
450 0% 100%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0.1% 99.9%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.8%  
455 0.1% 99.8%  
456 0.1% 99.7%  
457 0.1% 99.6%  
458 0.1% 99.5%  
459 0.3% 99.4%  
460 0.3% 99.1%  
461 0.4% 98.7%  
462 0.3% 98%  
463 0.7% 98%  
464 0.9% 97%  
465 0.8% 96%  
466 0.8% 96% Last Result
467 1.0% 95%  
468 2% 94%  
469 0.9% 92%  
470 0.9% 91%  
471 2% 90%  
472 3% 89%  
473 2% 86%  
474 2% 84%  
475 4% 82%  
476 3% 78%  
477 5% 75%  
478 3% 70%  
479 5% 67%  
480 5% 62%  
481 4% 57%  
482 3% 53%  
483 5% 50% Median
484 4% 45%  
485 3% 41%  
486 2% 39%  
487 3% 36%  
488 4% 33%  
489 2% 29%  
490 3% 27%  
491 4% 24%  
492 3% 20%  
493 3% 17%  
494 3% 14%  
495 2% 12%  
496 2% 9%  
497 1.2% 7%  
498 1.0% 6%  
499 0.9% 5%  
500 1.1% 4%  
501 0.3% 3%  
502 0.4% 3%  
503 0.5% 2%  
504 0.4% 2%  
505 0.2% 1.4%  
506 0.3% 1.2%  
507 0.3% 0.9%  
508 0.2% 0.7%  
509 0.1% 0.5%  
510 0.1% 0.4%  
511 0.1% 0.3%  
512 0% 0.2%  
513 0% 0.2%  
514 0% 0.2%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0.1%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.1% 99.6%  
419 0.2% 99.5%  
420 0.3% 99.3%  
421 0.2% 99.0%  
422 0.3% 98.8%  
423 0.4% 98%  
424 0.5% 98%  
425 0.6% 98%  
426 0.6% 97%  
427 0.7% 97%  
428 1.3% 96%  
429 0.9% 95%  
430 2% 94%  
431 2% 92%  
432 2% 90%  
433 2% 88%  
434 2% 86%  
435 2% 84%  
436 2% 82%  
437 3% 79%  
438 3% 77%  
439 4% 74%  
440 4% 71%  
441 3% 66%  
442 4% 64%  
443 5% 60%  
444 3% 55%  
445 4% 52% Median
446 3% 47%  
447 3% 44%  
448 4% 41%  
449 3% 37%  
450 4% 34%  
451 3% 29%  
452 3% 26%  
453 3% 23%  
454 3% 20%  
455 3% 17%  
456 2% 15%  
457 2% 12%  
458 2% 11%  
459 2% 9%  
460 0.8% 7%  
461 1.3% 6%  
462 1.1% 5%  
463 0.6% 4%  
464 0.8% 3%  
465 0.4% 3%  
466 0.6% 2%  
467 0.3% 2%  
468 0.3% 1.3%  
469 0.2% 1.0%  
470 0.2% 0.8%  
471 0.1% 0.6%  
472 0.1% 0.5%  
473 0.1% 0.4%  
474 0.1% 0.3%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0.1% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0% 99.8%  
402 0.1% 99.7%  
403 0.2% 99.6%  
404 0.3% 99.5%  
405 0.3% 99.2%  
406 0.3% 99.0%  
407 0.3% 98.7%  
408 0.3% 98%  
409 0.5% 98%  
410 0.6% 98%  
411 0.5% 97%  
412 0.6% 97%  
413 1.2% 96%  
414 1.3% 95%  
415 1.3% 94%  
416 2% 92%  
417 2% 91%  
418 2% 89%  
419 2% 87%  
420 3% 84%  
421 3% 81%  
422 2% 79%  
423 3% 77%  
424 5% 74%  
425 3% 69%  
426 4% 65%  
427 4% 62%  
428 4% 58%  
429 4% 54% Median
430 4% 50%  
431 4% 47%  
432 3% 43%  
433 3% 40%  
434 2% 37%  
435 3% 34%  
436 3% 32%  
437 4% 29%  
438 5% 25%  
439 4% 20%  
440 3% 16%  
441 2% 14%  
442 1.4% 12%  
443 1.0% 11%  
444 2% 10%  
445 1.2% 8%  
446 1.4% 7%  
447 1.1% 5%  
448 0.7% 4%  
449 0.7% 4%  
450 0.6% 3%  
451 0.6% 2%  
452 0.4% 2%  
453 0.3% 1.4%  
454 0.2% 1.1%  
455 0.2% 0.9%  
456 0.2% 0.7%  
457 0.1% 0.5%  
458 0.1% 0.4%  
459 0.1% 0.3%  
460 0.1% 0.3%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.1% 99.7%  
357 0.1% 99.6%  
358 0.1% 99.5%  
359 0.3% 99.3%  
360 0.3% 99.1%  
361 0.3% 98.8%  
362 0.5% 98%  
363 0.4% 98%  
364 0.5% 98%  
365 0.6% 97%  
366 0.7% 97%  
367 0.9% 96%  
368 1.1% 95%  
369 2% 94%  
370 1.3% 92%  
371 2% 91%  
372 2% 89%  
373 2% 87%  
374 3% 85%  
375 2% 81%  
376 3% 79%  
377 2% 76%  
378 3% 74%  
379 3% 71%  
380 3% 68%  
381 3% 65%  
382 5% 62%  
383 2% 57% Median
384 5% 54%  
385 4% 50%  
386 3% 46%  
387 4% 42%  
388 2% 38%  
389 4% 36%  
390 3% 32%  
391 3% 28%  
392 3% 25%  
393 3% 22%  
394 2% 19%  
395 3% 17%  
396 2% 14%  
397 2% 13%  
398 1.4% 10%  
399 2% 9%  
400 1.2% 7%  
401 1.0% 6%  
402 1.0% 5%  
403 0.6% 4%  
404 0.7% 3%  
405 0.4% 3%  
406 0.6% 2%  
407 0.4% 2%  
408 0.2% 1.4%  
409 0.3% 1.2%  
410 0.2% 0.9%  
411 0.1% 0.7%  
412 0.1% 0.6%  
413 0.1% 0.4%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.8%  
334 0.1% 99.7%  
335 0.1% 99.6%  
336 0.2% 99.5%  
337 0.2% 99.3%  
338 0.3% 99.1%  
339 0.4% 98.8%  
340 0.6% 98%  
341 0.5% 98%  
342 0.5% 97%  
343 1.0% 97%  
344 0.4% 96%  
345 2% 95%  
346 1.1% 94%  
347 2% 93%  
348 1.4% 91%  
349 2% 90%  
350 2% 88%  
351 2% 86%  
352 2% 84%  
353 3% 82%  
354 2% 79%  
355 4% 78% Majority
356 2% 74%  
357 5% 72%  
358 2% 67%  
359 5% 65%  
360 3% 60%  
361 3% 57%  
362 4% 53% Median
363 5% 49%  
364 3% 44%  
365 4% 41%  
366 4% 37%  
367 4% 33%  
368 3% 29%  
369 3% 26%  
370 2% 23%  
371 2% 20%  
372 3% 18%  
373 2% 15%  
374 2% 14%  
375 1.4% 12%  
376 2% 10%  
377 0.7% 8%  
378 2% 8%  
379 0.7% 6%  
380 1.3% 5%  
381 0.4% 4%  
382 0.8% 3%  
383 0.4% 3%  
384 0.6% 2%  
385 0.3% 2%  
386 0.2% 1.3%  
387 0.3% 1.1%  
388 0.1% 0.8%  
389 0.2% 0.7%  
390 0.1% 0.5%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.7%  
327 0.2% 99.7%  
328 0.2% 99.5%  
329 0.2% 99.3%  
330 0.3% 99.1%  
331 0.3% 98.8%  
332 0.4% 98.5%  
333 0.4% 98%  
334 0.5% 98%  
335 0.5% 97%  
336 0.6% 97%  
337 1.0% 96%  
338 1.1% 95%  
339 1.5% 94%  
340 2% 92%  
341 2% 91%  
342 2% 89%  
343 2% 87%  
344 2% 85%  
345 2% 83%  
346 2% 81%  
347 3% 78%  
348 3% 75%  
349 4% 72%  
350 4% 68%  
351 4% 64%  
352 3% 60%  
353 4% 57%  
354 3% 53%  
355 3% 50% Median, Majority
356 3% 47%  
357 4% 44%  
358 4% 40%  
359 3% 36%  
360 4% 32%  
361 3% 28%  
362 4% 25%  
363 2% 21%  
364 3% 19%  
365 1.5% 16%  
366 1.4% 15%  
367 2% 13%  
368 2% 12%  
369 2% 9%  
370 1.1% 8%  
371 2% 7%  
372 1.0% 5%  
373 0.8% 4%  
374 0.6% 3%  
375 0.4% 3%  
376 0.4% 2%  
377 0.3% 2%  
378 0.3% 2%  
379 0.3% 1.3%  
380 0.2% 1.0%  
381 0.2% 0.8%  
382 0.1% 0.5%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.8%  
311 0.1% 99.7%  
312 0.1% 99.6%  
313 0.1% 99.5%  
314 0.2% 99.4%  
315 0.2% 99.2%  
316 0.3% 98.9%  
317 0.4% 98.6%  
318 0.4% 98%  
319 0.7% 98%  
320 0.7% 97%  
321 0.5% 96%  
322 0.6% 96%  
323 1.2% 95%  
324 2% 94%  
325 2% 92%  
326 2% 91%  
327 1.0% 89%  
328 2% 88%  
329 3% 86%  
330 3% 83%  
331 3% 80%  
332 2% 77%  
333 3% 75%  
334 4% 72%  
335 5% 68%  
336 3% 63%  
337 2% 60%  
338 5% 58%  
339 4% 53% Median
340 4% 48%  
341 3% 44%  
342 3% 41%  
343 5% 39%  
344 3% 34%  
345 4% 31%  
346 2% 27%  
347 2% 25%  
348 2% 23%  
349 4% 21%  
350 2% 17%  
351 2% 15%  
352 2% 13%  
353 2% 12%  
354 2% 10%  
355 1.2% 8% Majority
356 0.9% 7%  
357 0.9% 6%  
358 0.9% 5%  
359 0.9% 4%  
360 0.6% 3%  
361 0.3% 2%  
362 0.5% 2%  
363 0.4% 2%  
364 0.3% 1.2%  
365 0.3% 0.9%  
366 0.1% 0.7%  
367 0.1% 0.6%  
368 0.1% 0.4%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.6%  
298 0.1% 99.4%  
299 0.2% 99.3%  
300 0.3% 99.1%  
301 0.2% 98.8%  
302 0.4% 98.6%  
303 0.6% 98%  
304 0.4% 98%  
305 0.7% 97%  
306 0.6% 97%  
307 1.0% 96%  
308 1.0% 95%  
309 1.2% 94%  
310 2% 93%  
311 1.4% 91%  
312 2% 90%  
313 2% 87%  
314 3% 86%  
315 2% 83%  
316 3% 81%  
317 3% 78%  
318 3% 75%  
319 3% 72%  
320 4% 68%  
321 2% 64%  
322 4% 62%  
323 3% 58%  
324 4% 54%  
325 5% 50% Median
326 2% 46%  
327 5% 43%  
328 3% 38%  
329 3% 35%  
330 3% 32%  
331 3% 29%  
332 2% 26%  
333 3% 24%  
334 2% 21%  
335 3% 19%  
336 2% 15%  
337 2% 13%  
338 2% 11%  
339 1.3% 9%  
340 2% 8%  
341 1.1% 6%  
342 0.9% 5%  
343 0.7% 4%  
344 0.6% 3%  
345 0.5% 3%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.5% 2%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.3% 1.2%  
350 0.3% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.5%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.2% 99.4%  
277 0.3% 99.2%  
278 0.4% 98.9%  
279 0.4% 98.6%  
280 0.6% 98%  
281 0.4% 98%  
282 0.7% 97%  
283 0.5% 97%  
284 0.7% 96%  
285 0.8% 95%  
286 1.0% 94%  
287 1.5% 93%  
288 1.4% 92%  
289 2% 91%  
290 3% 88%  
291 3% 85%  
292 2% 82%  
293 3% 80%  
294 2% 77%  
295 5% 75%  
296 4% 70%  
297 4% 66%  
298 4% 62%  
299 2% 58%  
300 2% 56%  
301 3% 54% Median
302 3% 51%  
303 3% 47%  
304 3% 44%  
305 2% 41%  
306 4% 39%  
307 4% 35%  
308 4% 32%  
309 4% 27%  
310 4% 23%  
311 3% 19%  
312 2% 16%  
313 3% 14%  
314 2% 11%  
315 2% 9%  
316 1.0% 7%  
317 0.6% 6%  
318 0.8% 6%  
319 0.7% 5%  
320 0.8% 4%  
321 0.6% 4%  
322 0.3% 3%  
323 0.4% 3%  
324 0.4% 2%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.4% 1.4% Last Result
327 0.3% 1.1%  
328 0.2% 0.8%  
329 0.1% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.2% 99.6%  
268 0.1% 99.4%  
269 0.3% 99.3%  
270 0.2% 99.1%  
271 0.3% 98.8%  
272 0.4% 98.5%  
273 0.5% 98%  
274 0.6% 98%  
275 0.5% 97%  
276 0.7% 96%  
277 0.8% 96%  
278 1.2% 95%  
279 1.3% 94%  
280 2% 92%  
281 2% 91%  
282 2% 89%  
283 2% 87%  
284 2% 84%  
285 3% 83%  
286 3% 79%  
287 3% 77%  
288 3% 74%  
289 4% 70%  
290 4% 66%  
291 4% 63%  
292 4% 59%  
293 5% 55% Median
294 3% 50%  
295 3% 46%  
296 3% 43%  
297 3% 40%  
298 4% 36%  
299 2% 33%  
300 3% 30%  
301 4% 27%  
302 3% 23%  
303 2% 20%  
304 2% 18%  
305 2% 16%  
306 2% 14%  
307 2% 12%  
308 2% 10%  
309 1.1% 8%  
310 1.0% 7%  
311 1.3% 6%  
312 0.9% 5%  
313 0.8% 4%  
314 0.6% 3%  
315 0.6% 2%  
316 0.3% 2%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.3% 1.3%  
319 0.3% 1.0%  
320 0.2% 0.7%  
321 0.1% 0.5%  
322 0.1% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.7%  
246 0.2% 99.6%  
247 0.3% 99.4%  
248 0.3% 99.1%  
249 0.6% 98.8%  
250 0.6% 98%  
251 0.6% 98%  
252 0.3% 97%  
253 0.3% 97%  
254 0.5% 96%  
255 0.6% 96%  
256 1.3% 95%  
257 1.4% 94%  
258 2% 92%  
259 2% 90%  
260 2% 88%  
261 2% 86%  
262 2% 85%  
263 2% 83%  
264 3% 81%  
265 4% 77%  
266 6% 74%  
267 5% 68%  
268 5% 62%  
269 4% 57%  
270 3% 54%  
271 1.4% 51%  
272 1.3% 49% Median
273 3% 48%  
274 4% 45%  
275 4% 41%  
276 5% 37%  
277 5% 32%  
278 3% 27%  
279 2% 24%  
280 2% 22%  
281 1.3% 20%  
282 2% 18%  
283 3% 16%  
284 3% 14%  
285 2% 11%  
286 2% 8%  
287 1.4% 6%  
288 0.5% 5%  
289 0.4% 5%  
290 0.3% 4%  
291 0.5% 4%  
292 0.6% 3%  
293 0.8% 3%  
294 0.4% 2%  
295 0.5% 2%  
296 0.2% 1.0%  
297 0.2% 0.8%  
298 0.1% 0.6%  
299 0.1% 0.4%  
300 0.1% 0.4%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0.1% 0.2%  
303 0.1% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.8%  
193 0.1% 99.7%  
194 0.2% 99.6%  
195 0.2% 99.4%  
196 0.3% 99.2%  
197 0.3% 98.9%  
198 0.4% 98.6%  
199 0.4% 98%  
200 0.6% 98%  
201 0.7% 97%  
202 1.2% 97%  
203 1.3% 95%  
204 2% 94%  
205 2% 92%  
206 1.4% 91%  
207 1.5% 89%  
208 2% 88%  
209 2% 85%  
210 3% 83%  
211 4% 80%  
212 4% 76%  
213 3% 73%  
214 3% 70%  
215 3% 67%  
216 4% 64%  
217 4% 60%  
218 5% 56% Median
219 5% 51%  
220 5% 46%  
221 3% 41%  
222 4% 38%  
223 3% 34%  
224 3% 31%  
225 3% 28%  
226 3% 24%  
227 2% 21%  
228 4% 19%  
229 2% 15%  
230 1.3% 13%  
231 2% 11%  
232 2% 10%  
233 1.4% 8% Last Result
234 2% 7%  
235 1.1% 5%  
236 0.8% 4%  
237 0.6% 3%  
238 0.4% 3%  
239 0.4% 2%  
240 0.4% 2%  
241 0.3% 1.4%  
242 0.2% 1.1%  
243 0.3% 0.9%  
244 0.1% 0.6%  
245 0.1% 0.5%  
246 0.1% 0.4%  
247 0.1% 0.3%  
248 0.1% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.8%  
154 0% 99.8%  
155 0.1% 99.8%  
156 0.1% 99.7%  
157 0.1% 99.6%  
158 0.2% 99.5%  
159 0.2% 99.3%  
160 0.2% 99.1%  
161 0.4% 98.9%  
162 0.5% 98.5%  
163 0.5% 98%  
164 0.9% 97%  
165 1.1% 97%  
166 1.1% 96%  
167 1.1% 95%  
168 2% 93%  
169 2% 92%  
170 2% 90%  
171 2% 88%  
172 3% 86%  
173 2% 83%  
174 4% 80%  
175 3% 76%  
176 3% 73%  
177 5% 70%  
178 3% 66%  
179 5% 62%  
180 5% 58%  
181 3% 52% Median
182 6% 49%  
183 3% 43%  
184 4% 40%  
185 4% 36%  
186 3% 32%  
187 5% 29%  
188 3% 24%  
189 3% 22%  
190 3% 18%  
191 1.5% 15%  
192 3% 14%  
193 1.5% 11%  
194 1.4% 9%  
195 2% 8%  
196 1.2% 6%  
197 1.0% 5%  
198 1.1% 4%  
199 0.5% 3%  
200 0.7% 3%  
201 0.3% 2%  
202 0.4% 2%  
203 0.3% 1.2%  
204 0.2% 0.9%  
205 0.2% 0.7%  
206 0.2% 0.5%  
207 0.1% 0.4%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations