Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 21–27 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.0% 21.3–24.4% 21.0–24.7% 20.4–25.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.8–22.2% 19.5–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.6–5.9% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.3% 4.1–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 173 164–182 162–185 160–187 156–192
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 160 151–168 148–170 147–174 143–177
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 107–122 104–124 103–126 99–130
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 84 77–91 75–93 74–95 71–98
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 70–83 68–85 67–86 64–90
Die Linke 69 61 55–67 54–69 52–70 50–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 35–45 34–47 33–48 31–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.1% 99.7%  
156 0.3% 99.5%  
157 0.3% 99.3%  
158 0.5% 98.9%  
159 0.9% 98%  
160 0.8% 98%  
161 1.1% 97%  
162 2% 96%  
163 2% 94%  
164 3% 92%  
165 2% 90%  
166 3% 87%  
167 4% 84%  
168 4% 80%  
169 5% 75%  
170 5% 71%  
171 6% 66%  
172 5% 59%  
173 6% 55% Median
174 5% 48%  
175 6% 44%  
176 6% 38%  
177 4% 32%  
178 4% 28%  
179 4% 24%  
180 4% 19%  
181 3% 16%  
182 3% 13%  
183 2% 10%  
184 2% 8%  
185 1.4% 6%  
186 1.3% 5%  
187 0.8% 3%  
188 0.7% 2%  
189 0.6% 2%  
190 0.3% 1.2%  
191 0.3% 0.9%  
192 0.2% 0.6%  
193 0.1% 0.4%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.1% 99.7%  
143 0.3% 99.5%  
144 0.4% 99.3%  
145 0.3% 98.9%  
146 1.1% 98.6%  
147 2% 98%  
148 1.3% 96%  
149 0.9% 95%  
150 2% 94%  
151 2% 92%  
152 2% 89%  
153 5% 88%  
154 8% 83%  
155 4% 74%  
156 3% 70%  
157 4% 67%  
158 4% 62%  
159 3% 59%  
160 7% 55% Median
161 11% 48%  
162 9% 38%  
163 3% 29%  
164 3% 26%  
165 3% 24%  
166 2% 20%  
167 3% 19%  
168 6% 15%  
169 4% 10%  
170 1.2% 6%  
171 0.9% 5%  
172 0.8% 4%  
173 0.5% 3%  
174 0.7% 3%  
175 0.9% 2%  
176 0.7% 1.3%  
177 0.2% 0.6%  
178 0.1% 0.4%  
179 0.1% 0.3%  
180 0% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.2%  
182 0.1% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.7%  
100 0.5% 99.4%  
101 0.5% 99.0%  
102 0.9% 98.5%  
103 1.2% 98%  
104 2% 96%  
105 2% 95%  
106 2% 93%  
107 4% 90%  
108 4% 87%  
109 5% 83%  
110 5% 78%  
111 6% 73%  
112 6% 67%  
113 6% 61%  
114 8% 55% Median
115 5% 47%  
116 8% 42%  
117 5% 34%  
118 6% 29%  
119 4% 23%  
120 5% 19%  
121 3% 14%  
122 3% 11%  
123 2% 9%  
124 2% 6%  
125 1.3% 5%  
126 1.0% 3%  
127 0.8% 2%  
128 0.4% 2%  
129 0.4% 1.1%  
130 0.2% 0.7%  
131 0.2% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.4% 99.6%  
72 0.6% 99.2%  
73 0.8% 98.6%  
74 1.2% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 3% 94%  
77 3% 91%  
78 4% 88%  
79 5% 84%  
80 6% 79% Last Result
81 7% 73%  
82 7% 66%  
83 9% 59%  
84 6% 50% Median
85 7% 44%  
86 7% 37%  
87 7% 30%  
88 5% 24%  
89 4% 18%  
90 4% 14%  
91 3% 10%  
92 2% 8%  
93 1.4% 5%  
94 1.3% 4%  
95 1.0% 3%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.0%  
98 0.2% 0.6%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 0.6% 99.3%  
66 1.0% 98.7%  
67 1.5% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 3% 94%  
70 3% 91%  
71 4% 88%  
72 6% 84%  
73 7% 78%  
74 7% 71%  
75 8% 65%  
76 8% 57% Median
77 7% 49%  
78 8% 42%  
79 8% 34%  
80 6% 27%  
81 5% 21%  
82 5% 16%  
83 3% 11%  
84 3% 8%  
85 2% 6%  
86 1.4% 4%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.4% 1.0%  
90 0.2% 0.6%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.3% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.3%  
52 1.3% 98.5%  
53 2% 97%  
54 2% 95%  
55 3% 93%  
56 5% 90%  
57 6% 85%  
58 7% 78%  
59 9% 71%  
60 8% 62%  
61 8% 55% Median
62 8% 46%  
63 7% 38%  
64 7% 31%  
65 6% 24%  
66 5% 18%  
67 4% 13%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6% Last Result
70 1.4% 4%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.7%  
32 0.9% 99.2%  
33 2% 98%  
34 3% 96%  
35 4% 94%  
36 5% 90%  
37 7% 85%  
38 10% 78%  
39 8% 68%  
40 13% 60% Median
41 10% 47%  
42 12% 37%  
43 7% 25%  
44 7% 19%  
45 4% 12%  
46 3% 8% Last Result
47 2% 5%  
48 1.2% 3%  
49 1.0% 2%  
50 0.5% 1.1%  
51 0.4% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 488 100% 478–497 475–500 472–502 468–507
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 457 100% 447–467 445–470 442–472 437–477
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 412 100% 401–422 398–425 396–428 391–433
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 374 99.2% 363–385 360–387 358–390 353–395
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 374 99.0% 363–384 360–387 358–389 352–395
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 358 66% 347–368 344–372 342–374 337–379
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 335 0.8% 324–346 322–349 319–351 314–356
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 328 0.1% 316–339 315–340 311–345 308–350
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 297 0% 287–308 284–311 281–313 277–319
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 290 0% 280–300 277–303 275–306 269–311
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 274 0% 264–284 261–287 258–290 253–295
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 198 0% 189–208 186–210 184–213 180–217
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 166–185 164–187 162–190 158–194

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
462 0% 100%  
463 0% 99.9%  
464 0% 99.9%  
465 0.1% 99.9%  
466 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
467 0.2% 99.7%  
468 0.2% 99.5%  
469 0.2% 99.3%  
470 0.4% 99.1%  
471 0.5% 98.7%  
472 0.9% 98%  
473 0.7% 97%  
474 0.9% 97%  
475 1.3% 96%  
476 2% 94%  
477 2% 93%  
478 2% 91%  
479 2% 88%  
480 4% 87%  
481 4% 82%  
482 4% 78%  
483 5% 75%  
484 5% 70%  
485 3% 65%  
486 5% 62%  
487 5% 57% Median
488 6% 52%  
489 7% 46%  
490 5% 39%  
491 3% 34%  
492 4% 31%  
493 4% 27%  
494 5% 23%  
495 5% 19%  
496 2% 14%  
497 2% 11%  
498 2% 10%  
499 2% 8%  
500 2% 6%  
501 2% 4%  
502 0.7% 3%  
503 0.5% 2%  
504 0.5% 2%  
505 0.4% 1.2%  
506 0.2% 0.9%  
507 0.3% 0.7%  
508 0.1% 0.4%  
509 0.1% 0.3%  
510 0.1% 0.2%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 99.9%  
433 0% 99.9%  
434 0.1% 99.9%  
435 0.1% 99.8%  
436 0.1% 99.7%  
437 0.2% 99.6%  
438 0.3% 99.4%  
439 0.3% 99.1%  
440 0.3% 98.7%  
441 0.9% 98%  
442 0.6% 98%  
443 1.0% 97%  
444 0.8% 96%  
445 2% 95%  
446 2% 93%  
447 2% 92%  
448 3% 90%  
449 3% 87%  
450 3% 84%  
451 4% 81%  
452 5% 77%  
453 4% 71%  
454 3% 67%  
455 5% 64%  
456 5% 59%  
457 5% 54% Median
458 4% 49%  
459 6% 45%  
460 4% 39%  
461 6% 35%  
462 5% 29%  
463 3% 23%  
464 4% 20%  
465 3% 16%  
466 2% 14%  
467 2% 12%  
468 2% 10%  
469 2% 7%  
470 1.3% 6%  
471 1.4% 5%  
472 1.0% 3%  
473 0.5% 2%  
474 0.6% 2%  
475 0.3% 1.2%  
476 0.2% 0.9%  
477 0.2% 0.7%  
478 0.2% 0.5%  
479 0.1% 0.3%  
480 0.1% 0.2%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.9%  
389 0.1% 99.8%  
390 0.2% 99.7%  
391 0.3% 99.6%  
392 0.4% 99.3%  
393 0.2% 99.0%  
394 0.4% 98.7%  
395 0.3% 98%  
396 0.7% 98%  
397 1.3% 97%  
398 1.3% 96%  
399 2% 95%  
400 2% 93%  
401 2% 91%  
402 2% 89%  
403 2% 87%  
404 3% 85%  
405 3% 82%  
406 4% 79%  
407 6% 75%  
408 4% 69%  
409 5% 65%  
410 5% 60%  
411 2% 55% Median
412 4% 52%  
413 6% 48%  
414 5% 42%  
415 6% 37%  
416 5% 31%  
417 3% 26%  
418 4% 23%  
419 2% 19%  
420 2% 17%  
421 3% 14%  
422 3% 12%  
423 2% 9%  
424 2% 7%  
425 1.1% 5%  
426 0.9% 4%  
427 0.7% 3%  
428 0.5% 3%  
429 0.6% 2%  
430 0.5% 2%  
431 0.3% 1.1%  
432 0.2% 0.8%  
433 0.2% 0.5%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0.1% 0.2%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.7%  
353 0.2% 99.6%  
354 0.2% 99.4%  
355 0.3% 99.2% Majority
356 0.4% 98.9%  
357 0.6% 98%  
358 0.8% 98%  
359 1.4% 97%  
360 1.5% 96%  
361 1.2% 94%  
362 2% 93%  
363 2% 91%  
364 2% 89%  
365 3% 88%  
366 2% 85%  
367 4% 83%  
368 3% 79%  
369 5% 76%  
370 5% 71%  
371 4% 67%  
372 7% 62%  
373 5% 55% Median
374 4% 50%  
375 5% 46%  
376 5% 41%  
377 4% 36%  
378 3% 32%  
379 4% 29%  
380 3% 25%  
381 2% 21%  
382 4% 19%  
383 3% 15%  
384 3% 13%  
385 2% 10%  
386 2% 8%  
387 1.0% 6%  
388 2% 5%  
389 0.6% 3%  
390 0.5% 3%  
391 0.5% 2%  
392 0.3% 2%  
393 0.4% 1.2%  
394 0.3% 0.9%  
395 0.2% 0.6%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.2% 99.6%  
353 0.2% 99.4%  
354 0.3% 99.2%  
355 0.5% 99.0% Majority
356 0.4% 98.5%  
357 0.5% 98%  
358 1.2% 98%  
359 0.8% 96%  
360 1.2% 96%  
361 2% 94%  
362 2% 93%  
363 2% 91%  
364 3% 89%  
365 2% 86%  
366 5% 84%  
367 3% 79%  
368 3% 76%  
369 6% 73%  
370 4% 67%  
371 3% 63%  
372 5% 60%  
373 4% 54% Median
374 5% 50%  
375 5% 46%  
376 5% 40%  
377 4% 36%  
378 6% 32%  
379 3% 26%  
380 3% 22%  
381 4% 20%  
382 3% 15%  
383 2% 13%  
384 3% 10%  
385 1.2% 8%  
386 1.0% 7%  
387 2% 6%  
388 0.5% 4%  
389 0.9% 3%  
390 0.6% 2%  
391 0.4% 2%  
392 0.3% 1.3%  
393 0.3% 0.9%  
394 0.2% 0.7%  
395 0.2% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.1% 99.5%  
338 0.3% 99.4%  
339 0.3% 99.1%  
340 0.3% 98.8%  
341 0.6% 98%  
342 0.9% 98%  
343 0.9% 97%  
344 1.3% 96%  
345 2% 95%  
346 1.5% 93%  
347 2% 92%  
348 3% 89%  
349 2% 87%  
350 3% 84%  
351 3% 82%  
352 4% 78%  
353 5% 74%  
354 4% 70%  
355 6% 66% Majority
356 5% 60%  
357 5% 55%  
358 5% 51% Median
359 4% 46%  
360 6% 42%  
361 4% 36%  
362 4% 32%  
363 4% 28%  
364 4% 24%  
365 3% 20%  
366 3% 17%  
367 3% 15%  
368 2% 12%  
369 2% 9%  
370 1.4% 8%  
371 1.0% 6%  
372 2% 5%  
373 0.9% 4%  
374 0.5% 3%  
375 0.5% 2%  
376 0.5% 2%  
377 0.2% 1.1%  
378 0.3% 0.9%  
379 0.2% 0.6%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7%  
314 0.2% 99.6%  
315 0.3% 99.4%  
316 0.4% 99.1%  
317 0.3% 98.8%  
318 0.5% 98%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 0.6% 97%  
321 2% 97%  
322 1.0% 95%  
323 2% 94%  
324 2% 92%  
325 3% 90%  
326 3% 87%  
327 4% 85%  
328 2% 81%  
329 3% 79%  
330 4% 75%  
331 3% 71%  
332 4% 68%  
333 5% 64%  
334 5% 59%  
335 4% 54% Median
336 5% 50%  
337 7% 45%  
338 4% 38%  
339 5% 33%  
340 5% 29%  
341 3% 24%  
342 4% 21%  
343 2% 17%  
344 3% 15%  
345 2% 12%  
346 2% 11%  
347 2% 9%  
348 1.2% 7%  
349 1.5% 6%  
350 1.4% 4%  
351 0.8% 3%  
352 0.6% 2%  
353 0.4% 2%  
354 0.3% 1.1%  
355 0.2% 0.8% Majority
356 0.2% 0.6%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
302 0% 100%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0% 99.6%  
307 0% 99.6%  
308 0.2% 99.6%  
309 0.8% 99.4%  
310 0.8% 98.6%  
311 0.4% 98%  
312 0.1% 97%  
313 0.1% 97%  
314 2% 97%  
315 3% 96%  
316 3% 92%  
317 0.6% 89%  
318 0.2% 88%  
319 0.8% 88%  
320 4% 87%  
321 7% 83%  
322 6% 76%  
323 1.4% 70%  
324 0.2% 69%  
325 0.8% 69%  
326 5% 68%  
327 12% 63% Median
328 9% 51%  
329 3% 41%  
330 0.2% 39%  
331 1.2% 39%  
332 6% 37%  
333 11% 32%  
334 5% 21%  
335 1.0% 16%  
336 0.1% 15%  
337 0.8% 15%  
338 3% 14%  
339 5% 12%  
340 2% 7%  
341 0.3% 5%  
342 0.1% 4%  
343 0.3% 4%  
344 1.1% 4%  
345 1.5% 3%  
346 0.8% 1.5%  
347 0.1% 0.7%  
348 0% 0.6%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.2% 0.5%  
351 0.2% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.2% 99.6%  
278 0.3% 99.3%  
279 0.2% 99.1%  
280 0.5% 98.8%  
281 1.0% 98%  
282 0.3% 97%  
283 1.1% 97%  
284 1.5% 96%  
285 1.1% 94%  
286 2% 93%  
287 3% 92%  
288 3% 89%  
289 2% 86%  
290 4% 84%  
291 4% 80%  
292 3% 76%  
293 5% 73%  
294 4% 68%  
295 5% 65%  
296 3% 60%  
297 7% 56% Median
298 6% 50%  
299 3% 44%  
300 8% 41%  
301 4% 33%  
302 3% 29%  
303 4% 26%  
304 3% 22%  
305 3% 19%  
306 2% 16%  
307 3% 14%  
308 2% 11%  
309 2% 9%  
310 2% 7%  
311 1.2% 5%  
312 0.8% 4%  
313 0.8% 3%  
314 0.7% 2%  
315 0.3% 2%  
316 0.3% 1.3%  
317 0.3% 1.0%  
318 0.2% 0.7%  
319 0.2% 0.5%  
320 0.2% 0.4%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0.1% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.7%  
269 0.2% 99.7%  
270 0.3% 99.5%  
271 0.3% 99.2%  
272 0.5% 98.9%  
273 0.4% 98%  
274 0.5% 98%  
275 1.0% 98%  
276 0.7% 97%  
277 1.2% 96%  
278 3% 95%  
279 1.2% 92%  
280 2% 91%  
281 3% 88%  
282 2% 85%  
283 4% 83%  
284 3% 78%  
285 2% 75%  
286 6% 73%  
287 4% 67%  
288 3% 63%  
289 9% 60% Median
290 4% 52%  
291 4% 48%  
292 7% 44%  
293 3% 37%  
294 6% 34%  
295 5% 28%  
296 1.5% 23%  
297 3% 22%  
298 4% 19%  
299 1.4% 14%  
300 3% 13%  
301 2% 10%  
302 1.1% 8%  
303 3% 7%  
304 0.8% 4%  
305 0.7% 3%  
306 0.9% 3%  
307 0.4% 2%  
308 0.3% 1.5%  
309 0.3% 1.2%  
310 0.2% 0.8%  
311 0.2% 0.6%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.2%  
315 0.1% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.2% 99.6%  
254 0.2% 99.5%  
255 0.3% 99.3%  
256 0.4% 99.0%  
257 0.5% 98.6%  
258 0.6% 98%  
259 0.8% 97%  
260 0.9% 97%  
261 1.3% 96%  
262 2% 94%  
263 3% 93%  
264 2% 90%  
265 3% 88%  
266 3% 85%  
267 3% 81%  
268 3% 78%  
269 3% 75%  
270 5% 71%  
271 4% 67%  
272 6% 63%  
273 5% 58%  
274 4% 52% Median
275 6% 48%  
276 4% 42%  
277 6% 38%  
278 5% 32%  
279 2% 27%  
280 5% 25%  
281 3% 20%  
282 3% 17%  
283 2% 13%  
284 2% 11%  
285 2% 10%  
286 2% 8%  
287 1.5% 6%  
288 0.9% 4%  
289 0.6% 4%  
290 0.8% 3%  
291 0.7% 2%  
292 0.4% 1.3%  
293 0.2% 1.0%  
294 0.2% 0.7%  
295 0.2% 0.6%  
296 0.1% 0.4%  
297 0.1% 0.2%  
298 0.1% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0% 100%  
176 0.1% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0.1% 99.8%  
179 0.1% 99.7%  
180 0.3% 99.5%  
181 0.3% 99.2%  
182 0.5% 98.9%  
183 0.6% 98%  
184 1.1% 98%  
185 0.8% 97%  
186 2% 96%  
187 2% 94%  
188 2% 93%  
189 3% 90%  
190 3% 87%  
191 4% 85%  
192 4% 81%  
193 4% 77%  
194 6% 73%  
195 3% 67%  
196 8% 65%  
197 4% 56%  
198 6% 52% Median
199 6% 47%  
200 3% 41%  
201 6% 38%  
202 5% 32%  
203 5% 27%  
204 3% 22%  
205 3% 19%  
206 3% 16%  
207 2% 13%  
208 3% 10%  
209 1.3% 8%  
210 2% 6%  
211 1.1% 5%  
212 1.0% 4%  
213 0.7% 3%  
214 0.3% 2%  
215 0.6% 2%  
216 0.2% 1.0%  
217 0.3% 0.8%  
218 0.2% 0.5%  
219 0.1% 0.3%  
220 0.1% 0.2%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.2% 99.7%  
158 0.3% 99.5%  
159 0.3% 99.2%  
160 0.5% 98.9%  
161 0.7% 98%  
162 1.0% 98%  
163 1.1% 97%  
164 2% 96%  
165 2% 94%  
166 3% 92%  
167 3% 90%  
168 3% 87%  
169 3% 84%  
170 4% 80%  
171 4% 76%  
172 5% 71%  
173 5% 66%  
174 5% 61%  
175 6% 55% Median
176 7% 49%  
177 5% 42%  
178 5% 37%  
179 5% 32%  
180 4% 27%  
181 3% 23%  
182 4% 20%  
183 3% 16%  
184 2% 12%  
185 3% 10%  
186 1.3% 7%  
187 2% 6%  
188 1.0% 4%  
189 0.8% 3%  
190 0.9% 3%  
191 0.4% 2%  
192 0.5% 1.4%  
193 0.2% 0.9%  
194 0.2% 0.6%  
195 0.1% 0.4%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations