Opinion Poll by Forsa, 22–28 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 24.3% 23.1–25.6% 22.8–26.0% 22.5–26.3% 21.9–26.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.5–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.7–22.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.6% 5.0–6.4% 4.8–6.6% 4.7–6.8% 4.4–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 187 178–196 175–199 173–202 169–207
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 153 144–164 142–165 141–167 136–173
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 108 100–115 98–118 96–120 93–124
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 93 85–99 83–102 82–104 79–108
Alternative für Deutschland 94 70 63–76 62–78 60–80 57–83
Die Linke 69 54 49–60 47–62 46–63 43–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 44 39–49 37–51 36–52 34–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.3% 99.6%  
170 0.4% 99.3%  
171 0.4% 98.9%  
172 0.7% 98.5%  
173 1.1% 98%  
174 0.7% 97%  
175 1.2% 96%  
176 2% 95%  
177 2% 93%  
178 2% 91%  
179 3% 89%  
180 4% 86%  
181 3% 82%  
182 5% 79%  
183 6% 74%  
184 4% 69%  
185 7% 65%  
186 5% 58%  
187 4% 53% Median
188 5% 49%  
189 6% 45%  
190 5% 39%  
191 6% 34%  
192 5% 29%  
193 4% 23%  
194 3% 20%  
195 3% 17%  
196 3% 13%  
197 2% 10%  
198 2% 8%  
199 1.2% 6%  
200 0.8% 5% Last Result
201 1.0% 4%  
202 1.1% 3%  
203 0.5% 2%  
204 0.6% 2%  
205 0.3% 1.0%  
206 0.1% 0.7%  
207 0.2% 0.5%  
208 0.1% 0.4%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0.1% 100%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.2% 99.8%  
136 0.2% 99.5%  
137 0.1% 99.4%  
138 0.1% 99.3%  
139 0.3% 99.2%  
140 0.9% 98.9%  
141 2% 98%  
142 3% 96%  
143 3% 93%  
144 2% 90%  
145 0.8% 89%  
146 0.6% 88%  
147 2% 87%  
148 5% 85%  
149 9% 79%  
150 10% 71%  
151 7% 60%  
152 4% 54%  
153 1.2% 50% Median
154 1.3% 49%  
155 4% 48%  
156 7% 44%  
157 9% 36%  
158 8% 28%  
159 4% 20%  
160 0.9% 16%  
161 0.8% 15%  
162 1.1% 14%  
163 2% 13%  
164 3% 11%  
165 3% 8%  
166 2% 5%  
167 0.8% 3%  
168 0.2% 2%  
169 0.1% 2%  
170 0.3% 2%  
171 0.3% 1.3%  
172 0.4% 0.9%  
173 0.3% 0.5%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.7%  
93 0.3% 99.6%  
94 0.5% 99.3%  
95 0.7% 98.7%  
96 1.0% 98%  
97 1.3% 97%  
98 2% 96%  
99 2% 94%  
100 2% 91%  
101 3% 89%  
102 4% 87%  
103 5% 83%  
104 5% 78%  
105 6% 73%  
106 6% 67%  
107 7% 61%  
108 8% 54% Median
109 7% 46%  
110 8% 39%  
111 6% 32%  
112 5% 26%  
113 4% 20%  
114 4% 16%  
115 3% 12%  
116 2% 9%  
117 2% 7%  
118 1.2% 5%  
119 1.1% 4%  
120 0.8% 3%  
121 0.7% 2%  
122 0.5% 2%  
123 0.4% 1.0%  
124 0.2% 0.6%  
125 0.2% 0.4%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 0.5% 99.3% Last Result
81 1.0% 98.8%  
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 3% 94%  
85 4% 91%  
86 5% 87%  
87 4% 82%  
88 4% 78%  
89 4% 74%  
90 4% 70%  
91 4% 66%  
92 6% 62%  
93 7% 56% Median
94 8% 49%  
95 7% 41%  
96 9% 34%  
97 6% 25%  
98 6% 19%  
99 4% 13%  
100 2% 9%  
101 1.5% 7%  
102 1.4% 5%  
103 1.0% 4%  
104 0.7% 3%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 0.4% 1.1%  
108 0.3% 0.7%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 0.3% 99.4%  
59 1.0% 99.1%  
60 0.9% 98%  
61 2% 97%  
62 3% 95%  
63 3% 93%  
64 6% 89%  
65 3% 83%  
66 10% 80%  
67 3% 70%  
68 11% 67%  
69 6% 56%  
70 9% 50% Median
71 7% 41%  
72 6% 34%  
73 8% 28%  
74 3% 20%  
75 6% 17%  
76 2% 11%  
77 4% 9%  
78 1.3% 6%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 0.4% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.2%  
83 0.1% 0.6%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.7%  
44 0.5% 99.5%  
45 0.9% 99.0%  
46 2% 98%  
47 2% 96%  
48 3% 94%  
49 5% 91%  
50 6% 86%  
51 8% 80%  
52 7% 72%  
53 11% 66%  
54 8% 55% Median
55 9% 47%  
56 7% 38%  
57 8% 31%  
58 6% 23%  
59 5% 17%  
60 4% 12%  
61 3% 8%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.4%  
66 0.4% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.6%  
35 0.9% 99.3%  
36 1.5% 98%  
37 2% 97%  
38 4% 95%  
39 5% 91%  
40 7% 86%  
41 9% 79%  
42 9% 70%  
43 9% 60%  
44 10% 51% Median
45 9% 41%  
46 8% 33% Last Result
47 7% 24%  
48 5% 17%  
49 4% 12%  
50 3% 8%  
51 2% 5%  
52 1.4% 3%  
53 0.8% 2%  
54 0.5% 1.1%  
55 0.3% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 492 100% 483–502 480–505 478–508 472–512
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 477 100% 467–487 464–490 462–493 457–497
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 432 100% 420–442 417–445 415–447 410–452
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 393 100% 382–404 379–407 376–409 372–414
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 384 100% 374–395 371–398 368–401 363–407
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 354 47% 343–365 341–368 338–371 333–376
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 339 3% 328–350 325–352 322–355 317–361
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 324 0% 313–334 309–337 307–340 302–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 316 0% 305–327 302–330 300–333 295–337
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 300 0% 290–311 287–314 284–317 280–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 261 0% 251–272 248–275 246–277 241–283
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 201 0% 190–210 188–213 185–215 181–220
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 162 0% 153–171 151–174 149–176 145–181

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 99.9%  
469 0.1% 99.9%  
470 0.1% 99.8%  
471 0.1% 99.7%  
472 0.2% 99.6%  
473 0.2% 99.4%  
474 0.2% 99.3%  
475 0.4% 99.0%  
476 0.4% 98.6%  
477 0.6% 98%  
478 1.0% 98%  
479 0.9% 97%  
480 2% 96%  
481 2% 94%  
482 2% 92%  
483 3% 90%  
484 2% 88%  
485 2% 85%  
486 4% 83%  
487 3% 79%  
488 5% 75%  
489 7% 71%  
490 4% 64%  
491 6% 60%  
492 5% 54% Median
493 5% 49%  
494 3% 44%  
495 5% 40%  
496 4% 35%  
497 5% 31%  
498 3% 26%  
499 4% 22%  
500 3% 18%  
501 3% 15%  
502 2% 12%  
503 2% 10%  
504 2% 8%  
505 1.2% 6%  
506 1.2% 5%  
507 1.1% 4%  
508 0.6% 3%  
509 0.8% 2%  
510 0.4% 1.3%  
511 0.3% 0.9%  
512 0.2% 0.6%  
513 0.1% 0.4%  
514 0.1% 0.3%  
515 0% 0.2%  
516 0.1% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 100%  
449 0% 100%  
450 0% 100%  
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0.1% 99.9%  
454 0.1% 99.8%  
455 0.1% 99.8%  
456 0.1% 99.7%  
457 0.2% 99.5%  
458 0.3% 99.4%  
459 0.3% 99.1%  
460 0.4% 98.8%  
461 0.7% 98%  
462 0.5% 98%  
463 1.0% 97%  
464 1.4% 96%  
465 2% 95%  
466 1.2% 93%  
467 2% 92%  
468 2% 90%  
469 3% 87%  
470 3% 84%  
471 3% 81%  
472 4% 78%  
473 6% 74%  
474 4% 68%  
475 5% 64%  
476 5% 60%  
477 6% 55% Median
478 4% 49%  
479 6% 45%  
480 5% 39%  
481 4% 34%  
482 5% 30%  
483 4% 25%  
484 3% 21%  
485 4% 18%  
486 2% 14%  
487 2% 12%  
488 2% 9%  
489 2% 7%  
490 1.2% 6%  
491 1.1% 4%  
492 0.8% 3%  
493 0.8% 3%  
494 0.4% 2%  
495 0.2% 1.3%  
496 0.4% 1.0%  
497 0.2% 0.6%  
498 0.1% 0.4%  
499 0.1% 0.3%  
500 0.1% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.1%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0.1% 99.8%  
409 0.1% 99.7%  
410 0.2% 99.6%  
411 0.3% 99.4%  
412 0.4% 99.1%  
413 0.4% 98.8%  
414 0.7% 98%  
415 0.7% 98%  
416 1.1% 97%  
417 1.2% 96%  
418 1.3% 95%  
419 2% 93%  
420 1.5% 91%  
421 3% 90%  
422 2% 87%  
423 2% 85%  
424 3% 82%  
425 3% 79%  
426 4% 77%  
427 4% 73%  
428 5% 69%  
429 3% 64%  
430 4% 61%  
431 5% 57%  
432 4% 52% Median
433 4% 48%  
434 5% 44%  
435 5% 39%  
436 3% 34%  
437 6% 31%  
438 5% 25%  
439 2% 20%  
440 3% 18%  
441 3% 15%  
442 3% 12%  
443 2% 9%  
444 2% 8%  
445 2% 6%  
446 0.8% 4%  
447 0.7% 3%  
448 0.6% 2%  
449 0.4% 2%  
450 0.4% 1.1%  
451 0.2% 0.7%  
452 0.1% 0.5%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0.2% 99.7%  
372 0.2% 99.5%  
373 0.3% 99.3%  
374 0.5% 99.0%  
375 0.6% 98.5%  
376 0.7% 98%  
377 0.7% 97%  
378 1.0% 97%  
379 1.0% 96%  
380 2% 95%  
381 0.9% 93%  
382 2% 92%  
383 1.2% 90%  
384 3% 89%  
385 3% 86%  
386 3% 83%  
387 3% 80%  
388 4% 78%  
389 4% 73%  
390 5% 69%  
391 6% 64%  
392 4% 58%  
393 6% 54%  
394 3% 47% Median
395 7% 44%  
396 3% 37%  
397 4% 34%  
398 3% 29%  
399 3% 27%  
400 2% 23%  
401 3% 21%  
402 4% 18%  
403 2% 14%  
404 3% 12%  
405 2% 10%  
406 2% 8%  
407 1.1% 6%  
408 2% 5%  
409 0.6% 3%  
410 0.8% 2%  
411 0.5% 2%  
412 0.3% 1.1%  
413 0.2% 0.8%  
414 0.1% 0.6%  
415 0.1% 0.5%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0.2% 99.6%  
364 0.1% 99.4%  
365 0.1% 99.3%  
366 0.7% 99.2%  
367 0.7% 98%  
368 0.6% 98%  
369 1.4% 97%  
370 0.5% 96%  
371 0.6% 95%  
372 2% 95%  
373 2% 93%  
374 2% 91%  
375 6% 90%  
376 1.2% 83%  
377 2% 82%  
378 3% 80%  
379 2% 77%  
380 4% 75%  
381 8% 71%  
382 3% 63%  
383 6% 60%  
384 5% 54% Median
385 1.5% 49%  
386 5% 48%  
387 6% 43%  
388 3% 37%  
389 8% 33%  
390 3% 25%  
391 2% 23%  
392 3% 20%  
393 3% 18%  
394 2% 15%  
395 5% 14%  
396 2% 9%  
397 1.2% 7%  
398 1.4% 6%  
399 0.9% 5%  
400 0.3% 4%  
401 1.3% 4%  
402 0.5% 2%  
403 0.4% 2%  
404 0.6% 1.3%  
405 0.1% 0.7%  
406 0.1% 0.6%  
407 0.2% 0.5%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.8%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.6%  
333 0.2% 99.5%  
334 0.2% 99.3%  
335 0.2% 99.1%  
336 0.5% 98.8%  
337 0.7% 98%  
338 0.7% 98%  
339 0.8% 97%  
340 0.9% 96%  
341 1.4% 95%  
342 2% 94%  
343 2% 92%  
344 2% 90%  
345 3% 88%  
346 4% 85%  
347 2% 81%  
348 4% 79%  
349 3% 75%  
350 4% 71%  
351 5% 67%  
352 5% 63%  
353 5% 57%  
354 5% 52% Median
355 3% 47% Majority
356 6% 44%  
357 4% 38%  
358 5% 34%  
359 4% 29%  
360 3% 25%  
361 3% 22%  
362 3% 19%  
363 2% 16%  
364 3% 14%  
365 2% 10%  
366 2% 8%  
367 1.5% 7%  
368 0.9% 5%  
369 1.0% 4%  
370 0.8% 3%  
371 0.5% 3%  
372 0.6% 2%  
373 0.4% 1.5%  
374 0.3% 1.0%  
375 0.2% 0.7%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.2% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.2% 99.4%  
319 0.2% 99.2%  
320 0.4% 99.0%  
321 0.6% 98.6%  
322 0.6% 98%  
323 1.1% 97%  
324 1.0% 96%  
325 1.4% 95%  
326 1.0% 94%  
327 1.5% 93%  
328 2% 92%  
329 1.3% 90%  
330 3% 89%  
331 3% 85%  
332 5% 83%  
333 4% 78%  
334 4% 74%  
335 4% 70%  
336 3% 66%  
337 4% 63%  
338 4% 58%  
339 5% 54% Median
340 6% 49%  
341 6% 43%  
342 6% 37%  
343 4% 32%  
344 3% 28%  
345 4% 25%  
346 4% 21%  
347 2% 18%  
348 3% 16%  
349 3% 13%  
350 2% 10%  
351 2% 8%  
352 1.3% 6%  
353 1.1% 5%  
354 0.7% 4%  
355 0.7% 3% Majority
356 0.5% 2%  
357 0.4% 2%  
358 0.4% 1.4%  
359 0.3% 1.0%  
360 0.2% 0.7%  
361 0.2% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.2% 99.7%  
302 0.2% 99.5%  
303 0.3% 99.3%  
304 0.4% 99.0%  
305 0.4% 98.6%  
306 0.5% 98%  
307 1.0% 98%  
308 0.8% 97%  
309 1.1% 96%  
310 2% 95%  
311 1.1% 93%  
312 2% 92%  
313 3% 91%  
314 2% 88%  
315 3% 86%  
316 3% 82%  
317 2% 79%  
318 4% 77%  
319 3% 73%  
320 4% 70%  
321 4% 66%  
322 5% 61%  
323 4% 57%  
324 5% 53% Median
325 7% 48%  
326 3% 42% Last Result
327 5% 38%  
328 4% 33%  
329 3% 30%  
330 4% 26%  
331 5% 23%  
332 2% 18%  
333 4% 16%  
334 2% 12%  
335 2% 10%  
336 2% 8%  
337 1.4% 6%  
338 0.8% 5%  
339 1.1% 4%  
340 0.8% 3%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.4% 1.1%  
344 0.2% 0.7%  
345 0.2% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.1% 99.5%  
296 0.2% 99.4%  
297 0.3% 99.2%  
298 0.5% 98.9%  
299 0.8% 98%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 2% 97%  
302 1.1% 95%  
303 2% 94%  
304 2% 92%  
305 3% 90%  
306 2% 88%  
307 4% 86%  
308 3% 82%  
309 2% 79%  
310 3% 77%  
311 3% 73%  
312 4% 71%  
313 3% 66%  
314 7% 63%  
315 3% 56% Median
316 6% 53%  
317 4% 46%  
318 6% 42%  
319 5% 36%  
320 4% 31%  
321 4% 27%  
322 3% 22%  
323 3% 20%  
324 3% 17%  
325 3% 14%  
326 1.2% 11%  
327 2% 10%  
328 0.9% 8%  
329 2% 7%  
330 1.0% 5%  
331 1.0% 4%  
332 0.7% 3%  
333 0.7% 3%  
334 0.6% 2%  
335 0.5% 1.5%  
336 0.3% 1.0%  
337 0.2% 0.7%  
338 0.2% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.2% 99.5%  
281 0.4% 99.3%  
282 0.3% 98.9%  
283 0.6% 98.6%  
284 0.6% 98%  
285 1.0% 97%  
286 0.8% 96%  
287 0.9% 96%  
288 2% 95%  
289 2% 93%  
290 2% 91%  
291 2% 89%  
292 4% 87%  
293 2% 83%  
294 3% 81%  
295 4% 78%  
296 4% 73%  
297 4% 69%  
298 5% 65%  
299 4% 60%  
300 6% 56%  
301 4% 50% Median
302 4% 46%  
303 6% 42%  
304 3% 36%  
305 4% 32%  
306 5% 28%  
307 3% 23%  
308 3% 20%  
309 3% 17%  
310 2% 14%  
311 2% 12%  
312 2% 10%  
313 2% 7%  
314 1.0% 6%  
315 0.9% 5%  
316 0.6% 4%  
317 1.1% 3%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.4% 2%  
320 0.4% 1.1%  
321 0.2% 0.8%  
322 0.2% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.2% 99.7%  
241 0.2% 99.6%  
242 0.3% 99.4%  
243 0.3% 99.1%  
244 0.5% 98.9%  
245 0.6% 98%  
246 0.9% 98%  
247 0.9% 97%  
248 2% 96%  
249 1.0% 94%  
250 2% 93%  
251 2% 91%  
252 2% 89%  
253 3% 87%  
254 4% 84%  
255 3% 80%  
256 5% 77%  
257 4% 72%  
258 4% 68%  
259 6% 64%  
260 5% 58%  
261 4% 53% Median
262 5% 49%  
263 5% 44%  
264 4% 39%  
265 4% 35%  
266 4% 30%  
267 4% 27%  
268 3% 23%  
269 3% 20%  
270 3% 17%  
271 2% 14%  
272 2% 11%  
273 2% 10%  
274 2% 8%  
275 1.2% 6%  
276 1.1% 5%  
277 0.9% 3%  
278 0.6% 2%  
279 0.4% 2%  
280 0.4% 2%  
281 0.3% 1.1%  
282 0.2% 0.8%  
283 0.1% 0.5%  
284 0.1% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.8%  
181 0.2% 99.7%  
182 0.4% 99.4%  
183 0.4% 99.1%  
184 0.6% 98.7%  
185 0.7% 98%  
186 0.7% 97%  
187 1.1% 97%  
188 2% 96%  
189 2% 94%  
190 2% 92%  
191 2% 90%  
192 3% 87%  
193 2% 85%  
194 3% 82%  
195 3% 79%  
196 7% 75%  
197 4% 69%  
198 3% 65%  
199 4% 61%  
200 6% 57%  
201 7% 51% Median
202 4% 44%  
203 4% 40%  
204 4% 36%  
205 3% 32%  
206 5% 28%  
207 5% 23%  
208 2% 18%  
209 4% 16%  
210 2% 11%  
211 1.2% 10%  
212 2% 8%  
213 2% 6%  
214 1.2% 4%  
215 1.0% 3%  
216 0.7% 2%  
217 0.2% 2%  
218 0.5% 1.3%  
219 0.2% 0.8%  
220 0.3% 0.7%  
221 0.2% 0.4%  
222 0.1% 0.2%  
223 0.1% 0.2%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.7%  
145 0.3% 99.5%  
146 0.4% 99.2%  
147 0.4% 98.8%  
148 0.7% 98%  
149 1.1% 98%  
150 1.4% 97%  
151 2% 95%  
152 2% 93%  
153 2% 91%  
154 4% 89%  
155 3% 85%  
156 2% 82%  
157 5% 80%  
158 4% 75%  
159 5% 71%  
160 6% 66%  
161 4% 60%  
162 7% 56% Median
163 7% 49%  
164 7% 42%  
165 5% 35%  
166 6% 31%  
167 5% 25%  
168 4% 21%  
169 3% 17%  
170 2% 14%  
171 2% 11%  
172 2% 9%  
173 1.4% 7%  
174 1.4% 6%  
175 1.2% 4%  
176 1.0% 3%  
177 0.5% 2%  
178 0.5% 2%  
179 0.4% 1.2%  
180 0.2% 0.8%  
181 0.2% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.4%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0.1% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations