Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 25–28 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 23.5% 22.3–24.7% 22.0–25.1% 21.7–25.4% 21.2–26.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.7–19.5% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.6% 6.5–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 175 166–183 164–186 162–189 157–193
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 126–142 124–144 122–147 118–151
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 119 112–127 110–129 108–131 104–135
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 97 90–104 88–106 87–108 83–112
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–89 74–91 73–93 69–96
Die Linke 69 56 51–62 50–63 48–65 46–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 45 40–50 39–52 38–53 36–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.2% 99.8%  
157 0.2% 99.6%  
158 0.3% 99.5%  
159 0.3% 99.2%  
160 0.5% 98.8%  
161 0.6% 98%  
162 0.8% 98%  
163 1.1% 97%  
164 2% 96%  
165 2% 94%  
166 3% 92%  
167 2% 89%  
168 4% 86%  
169 5% 83%  
170 3% 77%  
171 6% 74%  
172 5% 68%  
173 5% 62%  
174 6% 58%  
175 6% 52% Median
176 4% 46%  
177 5% 42%  
178 6% 37%  
179 4% 32%  
180 8% 28%  
181 3% 20%  
182 3% 17%  
183 4% 13%  
184 2% 10%  
185 2% 8%  
186 1.1% 6%  
187 1.0% 5%  
188 0.9% 4%  
189 1.0% 3%  
190 0.5% 2%  
191 0.4% 1.4%  
192 0.4% 1.0%  
193 0.2% 0.6%  
194 0.2% 0.4%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.3% 99.5%  
120 0.4% 99.1%  
121 0.6% 98.7%  
122 1.1% 98%  
123 1.1% 97%  
124 2% 96%  
125 2% 94%  
126 3% 92%  
127 4% 89%  
128 4% 86%  
129 5% 82%  
130 5% 77%  
131 5% 72%  
132 7% 66%  
133 6% 60%  
134 7% 53% Median
135 6% 47%  
136 6% 41%  
137 5% 35%  
138 6% 30%  
139 4% 24%  
140 4% 20%  
141 4% 16%  
142 3% 12%  
143 2% 9%  
144 2% 7%  
145 1.2% 5%  
146 1.1% 4%  
147 0.6% 3%  
148 0.7% 2%  
149 0.4% 1.2%  
150 0.3% 0.8%  
151 0.2% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.4% 99.5%  
106 0.4% 99.1%  
107 0.8% 98.7%  
108 1.0% 98%  
109 2% 97%  
110 2% 95%  
111 3% 94%  
112 3% 91%  
113 4% 88%  
114 5% 84%  
115 6% 79%  
116 6% 74%  
117 6% 68%  
118 7% 61%  
119 6% 54% Median
120 7% 48%  
121 6% 41%  
122 6% 35%  
123 5% 29%  
124 4% 24%  
125 5% 20%  
126 3% 14%  
127 3% 11%  
128 2% 8%  
129 2% 7%  
130 1.1% 5%  
131 1.4% 4%  
132 0.6% 2%  
133 0.6% 2%  
134 0.3% 1.1%  
135 0.3% 0.7%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.2% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 0.3% 99.4%  
85 0.7% 99.1%  
86 0.9% 98%  
87 1.3% 98%  
88 2% 96%  
89 2% 94%  
90 4% 92%  
91 4% 88%  
92 5% 84%  
93 6% 79%  
94 5% 73%  
95 7% 67%  
96 8% 60%  
97 4% 52% Median
98 10% 48%  
99 5% 37%  
100 5% 32%  
101 6% 27%  
102 3% 20%  
103 5% 17%  
104 3% 12%  
105 3% 9%  
106 2% 6%  
107 1.3% 4%  
108 1.2% 3%  
109 0.5% 2%  
110 0.5% 1.4%  
111 0.3% 0.8%  
112 0.2% 0.5%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.5%  
71 0.9% 99.1%  
72 0.6% 98%  
73 2% 98%  
74 1.3% 96%  
75 4% 95%  
76 3% 91%  
77 6% 88%  
78 5% 82%  
79 8% 76%  
80 6% 68%  
81 7% 62%  
82 7% 55% Median
83 8% 48%  
84 5% 40%  
85 8% 34%  
86 6% 26%  
87 6% 20%  
88 4% 14%  
89 2% 10%  
90 3% 8%  
91 2% 6%  
92 1.2% 4%  
93 0.8% 3%  
94 0.7% 2% Last Result
95 0.3% 1.0%  
96 0.4% 0.7%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 0.4% 99.5%  
47 1.0% 99.2%  
48 1.4% 98%  
49 2% 97%  
50 4% 95%  
51 5% 91%  
52 5% 86%  
53 7% 81%  
54 11% 74%  
55 6% 63%  
56 9% 57% Median
57 10% 47%  
58 6% 38%  
59 9% 32%  
60 8% 23%  
61 3% 15%  
62 4% 12%  
63 3% 7%  
64 1.3% 4%  
65 1.2% 3%  
66 0.8% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.6% 99.6%  
37 1.0% 99.0%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 96%  
40 5% 93%  
41 6% 88%  
42 7% 82%  
43 8% 74%  
44 11% 66%  
45 11% 55% Median
46 9% 44% Last Result
47 9% 35%  
48 7% 26%  
49 6% 19%  
50 4% 13%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.2% 3%  
54 0.7% 2%  
55 0.4% 1.1%  
56 0.3% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 474 100% 464–483 461–486 458–488 454–493
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 451 100% 441–461 439–464 436–466 431–471
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 436 100% 426–447 424–449 421–451 416–456
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 400 100% 388–409 386–412 384–415 379–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 354 49% 344–364 341–368 339–370 333–375
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 349 30% 341–361 337–364 334–365 330–371
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 339 3% 329–350 326–353 324–355 319–360
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 317 0% 307–327 304–330 301–333 297–337
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 309 0% 300–321 297–323 294–325 289–330
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 303 0% 292–312 289–315 287–318 282–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 253 0% 245–264 241–266 237–268 234–273
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 216 0% 207–226 204–228 202–231 198–235
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 167–184 165–188 162–189 159–194

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
448 0% 100%  
449 0% 99.9%  
450 0% 99.9%  
451 0.1% 99.9%  
452 0.1% 99.8%  
453 0.2% 99.7%  
454 0.2% 99.5%  
455 0.2% 99.4%  
456 0.3% 99.2%  
457 0.6% 98.8%  
458 0.8% 98%  
459 0.7% 97%  
460 0.9% 97%  
461 1.3% 96%  
462 2% 95%  
463 1.3% 92%  
464 2% 91%  
465 2% 89%  
466 5% 86% Last Result
467 3% 82%  
468 2% 78%  
469 5% 76%  
470 6% 71%  
471 5% 65%  
472 4% 59%  
473 4% 55% Median
474 6% 51%  
475 6% 45%  
476 5% 39%  
477 4% 34%  
478 4% 30%  
479 4% 26%  
480 5% 22%  
481 2% 17%  
482 3% 15%  
483 2% 12%  
484 3% 10%  
485 1.5% 7%  
486 1.3% 5%  
487 1.0% 4%  
488 0.7% 3%  
489 0.9% 2%  
490 0.4% 2%  
491 0.3% 1.1%  
492 0.2% 0.8%  
493 0.2% 0.6%  
494 0.2% 0.4%  
495 0.1% 0.2%  
496 0.1% 0.2%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0% 99.9%  
428 0.1% 99.9%  
429 0.1% 99.8%  
430 0.1% 99.7%  
431 0.2% 99.6%  
432 0.3% 99.4%  
433 0.4% 99.2%  
434 0.4% 98.8%  
435 0.4% 98%  
436 0.8% 98%  
437 1.1% 97%  
438 1.0% 96%  
439 1.4% 95%  
440 2% 94%  
441 2% 92%  
442 3% 89%  
443 3% 87%  
444 3% 84%  
445 3% 81%  
446 4% 78%  
447 4% 74%  
448 5% 70%  
449 6% 65%  
450 5% 59%  
451 4% 53% Median
452 6% 49%  
453 5% 43%  
454 5% 38%  
455 4% 33%  
456 4% 29%  
457 5% 25%  
458 3% 20%  
459 3% 17%  
460 3% 14%  
461 2% 11%  
462 2% 9%  
463 1.4% 7%  
464 1.4% 5%  
465 1.1% 4%  
466 0.8% 3%  
467 0.4% 2%  
468 0.6% 2%  
469 0.3% 1.1%  
470 0.2% 0.8%  
471 0.2% 0.5%  
472 0.2% 0.4%  
473 0.1% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0.1% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.8%  
415 0.1% 99.7%  
416 0.2% 99.6%  
417 0.3% 99.4%  
418 0.3% 99.2%  
419 0.4% 98.9%  
420 0.6% 98%  
421 0.7% 98%  
422 1.0% 97%  
423 0.9% 96%  
424 2% 95%  
425 2% 94%  
426 2% 92%  
427 2% 90%  
428 3% 87%  
429 3% 84%  
430 3% 81%  
431 5% 79%  
432 5% 74%  
433 4% 68%  
434 6% 65%  
435 6% 59%  
436 4% 53% Median
437 4% 49%  
438 5% 44%  
439 6% 40%  
440 4% 34%  
441 5% 30%  
442 4% 25%  
443 2% 22%  
444 5% 19%  
445 3% 15%  
446 2% 12%  
447 2% 10%  
448 2% 8%  
449 2% 6%  
450 0.9% 4%  
451 0.9% 3%  
452 0.6% 2%  
453 0.5% 2%  
454 0.4% 1.3%  
455 0.3% 1.0%  
456 0.2% 0.7%  
457 0.2% 0.5%  
458 0.1% 0.3%  
459 0.1% 0.2%  
460 0.1% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.7%  
379 0.2% 99.6%  
380 0.3% 99.4%  
381 0.3% 99.1%  
382 0.5% 98.8%  
383 0.5% 98%  
384 1.3% 98%  
385 0.7% 96%  
386 1.3% 96%  
387 2% 94%  
388 2% 92%  
389 2% 90%  
390 3% 88%  
391 2% 85%  
392 3% 83%  
393 3% 80%  
394 4% 76%  
395 4% 73%  
396 3% 69%  
397 6% 65%  
398 4% 60%  
399 5% 55% Median
400 5% 51%  
401 5% 46%  
402 6% 41%  
403 5% 35%  
404 4% 30%  
405 4% 26%  
406 4% 21%  
407 4% 18%  
408 2% 14%  
409 3% 12%  
410 2% 9%  
411 2% 7%  
412 1.1% 5%  
413 0.9% 4%  
414 0.6% 3%  
415 0.7% 3%  
416 0.6% 2%  
417 0.4% 2%  
418 0.4% 1.1%  
419 0.2% 0.8%  
420 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.3% 99.7%  
334 0.2% 99.4%  
335 0.3% 99.3%  
336 0.3% 99.0%  
337 0.6% 98.7%  
338 0.5% 98%  
339 1.0% 98%  
340 1.3% 97%  
341 1.2% 95%  
342 1.5% 94%  
343 1.0% 93%  
344 2% 92%  
345 3% 89%  
346 4% 87%  
347 3% 83%  
348 3% 79%  
349 4% 77%  
350 6% 72%  
351 4% 67%  
352 5% 63%  
353 4% 58%  
354 6% 54% Median
355 5% 49% Majority
356 6% 44%  
357 4% 38%  
358 5% 34%  
359 3% 29%  
360 3% 25%  
361 4% 22%  
362 5% 18%  
363 2% 14%  
364 3% 12%  
365 1.5% 9%  
366 1.3% 8%  
367 1.4% 7%  
368 2% 5%  
369 0.8% 3%  
370 0.7% 3%  
371 0.5% 2%  
372 0.4% 1.5%  
373 0.3% 1.0%  
374 0.2% 0.8%  
375 0.2% 0.5%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.2%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.9%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.2% 99.8%  
330 0.3% 99.6%  
331 0.2% 99.3%  
332 0.7% 99.0%  
333 0.5% 98%  
334 0.6% 98%  
335 0.9% 97%  
336 0.7% 96%  
337 1.0% 96%  
338 0.9% 95%  
339 0.9% 94%  
340 1.3% 93%  
341 2% 92%  
342 2% 90%  
343 4% 88%  
344 4% 84%  
345 5% 80%  
346 8% 75%  
347 6% 67%  
348 5% 62%  
349 7% 57%  
350 4% 50% Median
351 6% 46%  
352 4% 40%  
353 2% 35%  
354 3% 33%  
355 2% 30% Majority
356 3% 27%  
357 2% 25%  
358 3% 22%  
359 3% 20%  
360 4% 16%  
361 3% 13%  
362 3% 10%  
363 2% 7%  
364 1.2% 5%  
365 2% 4%  
366 0.5% 2%  
367 0.7% 2%  
368 0.4% 1.3%  
369 0.2% 0.9%  
370 0.2% 0.7%  
371 0.1% 0.5%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.7%  
319 0.1% 99.5%  
320 0.3% 99.4%  
321 0.3% 99.1%  
322 0.5% 98.7%  
323 0.5% 98%  
324 0.6% 98%  
325 1.0% 97%  
326 1.1% 96%  
327 2% 95%  
328 2% 93%  
329 2% 91%  
330 3% 89%  
331 3% 87%  
332 3% 84%  
333 5% 81%  
334 4% 76%  
335 5% 72%  
336 4% 67%  
337 4% 63%  
338 5% 59%  
339 5% 53% Median
340 5% 49%  
341 4% 44%  
342 4% 40%  
343 5% 35%  
344 4% 31%  
345 5% 27%  
346 3% 22%  
347 4% 19%  
348 3% 16%  
349 3% 13%  
350 2% 10%  
351 2% 8%  
352 1.3% 6%  
353 1.3% 5%  
354 0.9% 4%  
355 0.7% 3% Majority
356 0.5% 2%  
357 0.5% 2%  
358 0.3% 1.1%  
359 0.3% 0.9%  
360 0.2% 0.6%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.2% 99.7%  
297 0.3% 99.5%  
298 0.2% 99.3%  
299 0.4% 99.0%  
300 0.4% 98.7%  
301 0.9% 98%  
302 0.6% 97%  
303 1.1% 97%  
304 1.3% 96%  
305 2% 94%  
306 2% 93%  
307 3% 91%  
308 2% 88%  
309 2% 85%  
310 3% 83%  
311 5% 80%  
312 2% 74%  
313 4% 72%  
314 5% 68%  
315 6% 63%  
316 4% 58%  
317 6% 53% Median
318 4% 47%  
319 5% 43%  
320 5% 38%  
321 5% 33%  
322 3% 27%  
323 4% 25%  
324 4% 21%  
325 3% 18%  
326 2% 14% Last Result
327 2% 12%  
328 1.3% 9%  
329 3% 8%  
330 1.1% 6%  
331 1.2% 4%  
332 0.7% 3%  
333 0.6% 3%  
334 0.7% 2%  
335 0.4% 1.4%  
336 0.2% 0.9%  
337 0.2% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
290 0.2% 99.5%  
291 0.4% 99.2%  
292 0.4% 98.9%  
293 0.6% 98%  
294 0.7% 98%  
295 0.6% 97%  
296 0.9% 97%  
297 1.1% 96%  
298 2% 95%  
299 2% 93%  
300 3% 91%  
301 2% 88%  
302 4% 86%  
303 4% 82%  
304 4% 79%  
305 4% 74%  
306 5% 70%  
307 6% 65%  
308 5% 59%  
309 5% 54% Median
310 5% 49%  
311 4% 45%  
312 6% 40%  
313 3% 35%  
314 4% 31%  
315 4% 27%  
316 3% 24%  
317 3% 20%  
318 2% 17%  
319 3% 15%  
320 2% 12%  
321 2% 10%  
322 2% 8%  
323 1.3% 6%  
324 0.7% 4%  
325 1.3% 4%  
326 0.5% 2%  
327 0.5% 2%  
328 0.3% 1.2%  
329 0.3% 0.9%  
330 0.2% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.2% 99.6%  
283 0.2% 99.4%  
284 0.4% 99.2%  
285 0.4% 98.8%  
286 0.7% 98%  
287 0.8% 98%  
288 1.3% 97%  
289 2% 96%  
290 2% 94%  
291 2% 92%  
292 2% 91%  
293 3% 88%  
294 3% 85%  
295 3% 82%  
296 3% 79%  
297 4% 76%  
298 5% 73%  
299 4% 68%  
300 4% 64%  
301 6% 61%  
302 5% 55% Median
303 5% 50%  
304 5% 45%  
305 5% 40%  
306 4% 35%  
307 6% 31%  
308 4% 25%  
309 4% 21%  
310 3% 17%  
311 2% 14%  
312 3% 11%  
313 2% 9%  
314 1.4% 7%  
315 1.0% 6%  
316 1.0% 5%  
317 0.9% 4%  
318 0.6% 3%  
319 0.5% 2%  
320 0.5% 2%  
321 0.3% 1.2%  
322 0.3% 0.8%  
323 0.2% 0.6%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0.2% 99.8%  
234 0.2% 99.6%  
235 0.2% 99.4%  
236 0.8% 99.2%  
237 1.0% 98%  
238 0.7% 97%  
239 0.6% 97%  
240 0.8% 96%  
241 1.2% 95%  
242 0.8% 94%  
243 1.1% 93%  
244 1.4% 92%  
245 1.1% 91%  
246 3% 90%  
247 7% 87%  
248 5% 80%  
249 4% 75%  
250 8% 71%  
251 7% 63%  
252 5% 56%  
253 11% 51% Median
254 4% 41%  
255 1.3% 37%  
256 3% 35%  
257 3% 32%  
258 2% 29%  
259 2% 26%  
260 3% 25%  
261 2% 22%  
262 3% 20%  
263 5% 16%  
264 3% 11%  
265 1.4% 8%  
266 3% 7%  
267 1.5% 4%  
268 0.7% 3%  
269 1.0% 2%  
270 0.3% 1.2%  
271 0.2% 0.9%  
272 0.1% 0.7%  
273 0.1% 0.6%  
274 0.1% 0.5%  
275 0.1% 0.4%  
276 0.1% 0.3%  
277 0.1% 0.2%  
278 0.1% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.9%  
196 0.2% 99.8%  
197 0.1% 99.7%  
198 0.2% 99.5%  
199 0.3% 99.3%  
200 0.7% 99.1%  
201 0.6% 98%  
202 0.4% 98%  
203 1.1% 97%  
204 2% 96%  
205 2% 95%  
206 1.1% 93%  
207 3% 92%  
208 3% 89%  
209 3% 85%  
210 3% 82%  
211 4% 79%  
212 5% 75%  
213 4% 69%  
214 4% 65%  
215 7% 61%  
216 8% 55% Median
217 4% 47%  
218 5% 43%  
219 6% 39%  
220 4% 32%  
221 4% 28%  
222 2% 24%  
223 5% 21%  
224 3% 16%  
225 3% 13%  
226 2% 10%  
227 2% 8%  
228 2% 6%  
229 0.8% 5%  
230 1.0% 4%  
231 0.9% 3%  
232 0.7% 2%  
233 0.2% 1.4% Last Result
234 0.3% 1.2%  
235 0.4% 0.9%  
236 0.2% 0.5%  
237 0.1% 0.3%  
238 0.1% 0.2%  
239 0.1% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0.1% 99.7%  
159 0.3% 99.5%  
160 0.6% 99.2%  
161 0.7% 98.6%  
162 1.2% 98%  
163 0.5% 97%  
164 1.0% 96%  
165 1.0% 95%  
166 2% 94%  
167 4% 92%  
168 4% 88%  
169 4% 84%  
170 3% 80%  
171 2% 77%  
172 5% 74%  
173 5% 69%  
174 8% 65%  
175 9% 56% Median
176 5% 47%  
177 5% 42%  
178 2% 37%  
179 3% 34%  
180 5% 31%  
181 6% 26%  
182 5% 20%  
183 3% 14%  
184 2% 11%  
185 1.2% 9%  
186 0.8% 7%  
187 1.4% 6%  
188 2% 5%  
189 1.1% 3%  
190 1.1% 2%  
191 0.3% 1.2%  
192 0.2% 1.0%  
193 0.1% 0.7%  
194 0.2% 0.6%  
195 0.2% 0.4%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations