Opinion Poll by YouGov, 25–28 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 24.3% 23.0–25.7% 22.6–26.1% 22.3–26.5% 21.7–27.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.8–20.3% 17.5–20.7% 17.2–21.0% 16.6–21.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.3–16.8% 12.8–17.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.1–13.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.0% 10.0–12.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.1–13.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.3% 5.5–8.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.6% 5.0–6.4% 4.8–6.7% 4.6–6.9% 4.3–7.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 185 175–196 173–199 170–201 165–206
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 145 135–154 133–157 131–159 127–164
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 115 106–123 103–125 102–128 98–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 76–92 75–94 73–96 70–100
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 84 77–91 74–94 73–96 70–100
Die Linke 69 54 47–60 46–61 45–63 42–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 43 38–49 37–51 35–52 33–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.8%  
164 0.1% 99.7%  
165 0.2% 99.7%  
166 0.4% 99.4%  
167 0.2% 99.1%  
168 0.4% 98.9%  
169 0.8% 98%  
170 0.6% 98%  
171 0.7% 97%  
172 1.3% 96%  
173 2% 95%  
174 1.0% 93%  
175 2% 92%  
176 5% 90%  
177 2% 85%  
178 2% 83%  
179 5% 81%  
180 4% 76%  
181 2% 72%  
182 6% 70%  
183 7% 64%  
184 3% 57%  
185 5% 55% Median
186 8% 50%  
187 5% 42%  
188 3% 38%  
189 6% 35%  
190 5% 28%  
191 2% 24%  
192 3% 22%  
193 5% 19%  
194 2% 14%  
195 2% 12%  
196 3% 11%  
197 2% 8%  
198 1.0% 6%  
199 0.8% 5%  
200 2% 4% Last Result
201 0.4% 3%  
202 0.4% 2%  
203 0.6% 2%  
204 0.4% 1.2%  
205 0.1% 0.8%  
206 0.3% 0.7%  
207 0.2% 0.4%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.2% 99.7%  
127 0.2% 99.5%  
128 0.4% 99.3%  
129 0.5% 98.9%  
130 0.9% 98%  
131 0.9% 98%  
132 1.1% 97%  
133 1.4% 96%  
134 2% 94%  
135 2% 92%  
136 3% 90%  
137 3% 87%  
138 3% 84%  
139 4% 81%  
140 4% 77%  
141 5% 72%  
142 4% 67%  
143 5% 63%  
144 6% 58%  
145 5% 51% Median
146 5% 47%  
147 6% 42%  
148 5% 36%  
149 4% 30%  
150 4% 26%  
151 5% 22%  
152 3% 18%  
153 3% 15%  
154 2% 12%  
155 2% 9%  
156 2% 7%  
157 2% 5%  
158 0.9% 4%  
159 0.7% 3%  
160 0.6% 2%  
161 0.6% 2%  
162 0.3% 1.2%  
163 0.2% 0.9%  
164 0.2% 0.6%  
165 0.2% 0.5%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.7%  
98 0.2% 99.5%  
99 0.2% 99.3%  
100 0.5% 99.1%  
101 0.9% 98.6%  
102 1.4% 98%  
103 2% 96%  
104 2% 95%  
105 1.2% 93%  
106 2% 92%  
107 3% 90%  
108 5% 87%  
109 8% 82%  
110 6% 74%  
111 5% 68%  
112 3% 64%  
113 4% 61%  
114 7% 57%  
115 7% 51% Median
116 8% 44%  
117 8% 36%  
118 4% 28%  
119 2% 24%  
120 2% 22%  
121 4% 20%  
122 4% 15%  
123 3% 11%  
124 2% 8%  
125 1.0% 5%  
126 0.6% 4%  
127 0.7% 4%  
128 0.8% 3%  
129 0.8% 2%  
130 0.5% 1.4%  
131 0.3% 0.8%  
132 0.1% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.5%  
71 0.6% 99.2%  
72 1.0% 98.6%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 1.5% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 3% 93%  
77 3% 89%  
78 4% 86%  
79 5% 82%  
80 6% 77%  
81 6% 71%  
82 6% 66%  
83 8% 59%  
84 7% 52% Median
85 6% 44%  
86 6% 38%  
87 6% 33%  
88 6% 27%  
89 4% 21%  
90 4% 17%  
91 3% 13%  
92 3% 10%  
93 2% 7%  
94 2% 5% Last Result
95 1.0% 4%  
96 0.9% 3%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.2%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.4% 99.5%  
71 0.6% 99.2%  
72 0.8% 98.6%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 3% 93%  
77 3% 90%  
78 6% 87%  
79 5% 81%  
80 5% 77% Last Result
81 6% 72%  
82 8% 66%  
83 5% 58%  
84 8% 52% Median
85 7% 45%  
86 7% 38%  
87 5% 31%  
88 5% 26%  
89 5% 21%  
90 3% 16%  
91 4% 13%  
92 3% 10%  
93 2% 7%  
94 1.4% 5%  
95 1.3% 4%  
96 0.7% 3%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.2%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.3% 99.6%  
43 0.7% 99.3%  
44 0.9% 98.6%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 95%  
47 3% 93%  
48 3% 89%  
49 6% 86%  
50 7% 81%  
51 9% 73%  
52 7% 64%  
53 8% 58%  
54 8% 50% Median
55 10% 42%  
56 7% 31%  
57 6% 25%  
58 4% 19%  
59 4% 15%  
60 3% 11%  
61 3% 7%  
62 1.4% 5%  
63 1.1% 3%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.6%  
34 0.6% 99.3%  
35 2% 98.6%  
36 1.2% 97%  
37 4% 96%  
38 6% 91%  
39 4% 85%  
40 10% 82%  
41 5% 72%  
42 10% 67%  
43 11% 57% Median
44 5% 46%  
45 11% 41%  
46 5% 29% Last Result
47 7% 24%  
48 6% 17%  
49 3% 11%  
50 3% 8%  
51 2% 5%  
52 0.9% 3%  
53 1.2% 2%  
54 0.4% 1.2%  
55 0.4% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 488 100% 477–499 474–501 471–504 466–509
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 458 100% 446–468 443–471 440–474 435–479
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 427 100% 415–438 412–441 410–444 404–449
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 397 100% 385–408 382–411 379–414 373–419
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 374 98% 362–385 359–388 356–391 350–397
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 343 10% 331–354 328–358 325–361 320–366
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 343 10% 331–355 329–358 325–360 320–366
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 312 0% 301–324 298–327 295–331 290–336
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 312 0% 301–324 298–327 295–330 290–336
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 312 0% 301–324 298–327 295–330 290–336
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 259 0% 248–270 245–273 242–277 237–281
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 198 0% 188–208 185–212 183–215 178–220
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 168 0% 158–177 155–181 153–183 148–188

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
460 0% 100%  
461 0% 99.9%  
462 0% 99.9%  
463 0.1% 99.8%  
464 0.1% 99.8%  
465 0.1% 99.7%  
466 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
467 0.2% 99.4%  
468 0.3% 99.1%  
469 0.3% 98.8%  
470 0.6% 98%  
471 0.5% 98%  
472 1.0% 97%  
473 1.1% 96%  
474 0.9% 95%  
475 1.5% 94%  
476 2% 93%  
477 2% 91%  
478 3% 89%  
479 2% 86%  
480 4% 84%  
481 3% 81%  
482 4% 77%  
483 3% 74%  
484 5% 71%  
485 4% 65%  
486 5% 61%  
487 6% 57%  
488 4% 51% Median
489 5% 46%  
490 4% 41%  
491 4% 37%  
492 4% 33%  
493 4% 29%  
494 4% 24%  
495 3% 21%  
496 3% 18%  
497 2% 15%  
498 3% 13%  
499 2% 10%  
500 2% 8%  
501 1.5% 6%  
502 0.7% 5%  
503 1.0% 4%  
504 0.7% 3%  
505 0.5% 2%  
506 0.6% 2%  
507 0.3% 1.1%  
508 0.2% 0.8%  
509 0.2% 0.6%  
510 0.1% 0.4%  
511 0.1% 0.3%  
512 0.1% 0.2%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.8%  
433 0.1% 99.8%  
434 0.1% 99.7%  
435 0.2% 99.5%  
436 0.1% 99.4%  
437 0.4% 99.2%  
438 0.4% 98.8%  
439 0.5% 98%  
440 0.5% 98%  
441 0.7% 97%  
442 1.1% 97%  
443 0.8% 95%  
444 2% 95%  
445 1.5% 93%  
446 2% 91%  
447 2% 90%  
448 3% 87%  
449 2% 84%  
450 4% 83%  
451 3% 78%  
452 4% 75%  
453 4% 71%  
454 3% 67%  
455 5% 64%  
456 5% 59%  
457 3% 54% Median
458 6% 51%  
459 5% 45%  
460 4% 40%  
461 5% 35%  
462 4% 30%  
463 3% 27%  
464 4% 24%  
465 2% 20%  
466 4% 18%  
467 3% 14%  
468 2% 12%  
469 2% 10%  
470 1.4% 7%  
471 1.2% 6%  
472 1.1% 5%  
473 0.8% 4%  
474 0.7% 3%  
475 0.6% 2%  
476 0.4% 2%  
477 0.4% 1.2%  
478 0.2% 0.9%  
479 0.2% 0.7%  
480 0.2% 0.5%  
481 0.1% 0.3%  
482 0.1% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.2%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0.1% 99.9%  
401 0.1% 99.8%  
402 0.1% 99.8%  
403 0.1% 99.7%  
404 0.1% 99.6%  
405 0.2% 99.5%  
406 0.3% 99.3%  
407 0.3% 98.9%  
408 0.5% 98.6%  
409 0.6% 98%  
410 0.6% 98%  
411 0.9% 97%  
412 1.1% 96%  
413 1.2% 95%  
414 3% 94%  
415 2% 91%  
416 2% 89%  
417 3% 87%  
418 4% 85%  
419 2% 81%  
420 4% 79%  
421 3% 75%  
422 4% 72%  
423 4% 68%  
424 5% 64%  
425 5% 59%  
426 3% 55%  
427 5% 52% Median
428 3% 47%  
429 6% 44%  
430 4% 39%  
431 5% 35%  
432 3% 30%  
433 4% 27%  
434 3% 23%  
435 4% 20%  
436 2% 16%  
437 2% 14%  
438 3% 12%  
439 1.5% 9%  
440 2% 7%  
441 1.2% 6%  
442 1.2% 5%  
443 0.6% 3%  
444 0.6% 3%  
445 0.6% 2%  
446 0.4% 2%  
447 0.4% 1.3%  
448 0.2% 0.9%  
449 0.2% 0.7%  
450 0.1% 0.5%  
451 0.1% 0.4%  
452 0.1% 0.3%  
453 0.1% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.2% 99.6%  
374 0.2% 99.5%  
375 0.3% 99.3%  
376 0.3% 99.0%  
377 0.4% 98.6%  
378 0.3% 98%  
379 0.7% 98%  
380 0.8% 97%  
381 1.1% 96%  
382 1.3% 95%  
383 2% 94%  
384 1.1% 92%  
385 2% 91%  
386 2% 89%  
387 2% 87%  
388 3% 85%  
389 4% 82%  
390 4% 78%  
391 5% 74%  
392 4% 69%  
393 3% 65%  
394 4% 61%  
395 3% 57%  
396 4% 54% Median
397 5% 51%  
398 4% 46%  
399 5% 42%  
400 5% 37%  
401 5% 32%  
402 3% 27%  
403 3% 24%  
404 2% 21%  
405 3% 19%  
406 3% 16%  
407 3% 13%  
408 2% 11%  
409 1.3% 8%  
410 2% 7%  
411 0.8% 5%  
412 0.9% 4%  
413 0.8% 4%  
414 0.5% 3%  
415 0.7% 2%  
416 0.3% 2%  
417 0.3% 1.3%  
418 0.3% 1.0%  
419 0.2% 0.7%  
420 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.7%  
350 0.2% 99.6%  
351 0.2% 99.4%  
352 0.2% 99.2%  
353 0.4% 99.0%  
354 0.3% 98.6%  
355 0.7% 98% Majority
356 0.6% 98%  
357 0.9% 97%  
358 1.1% 96%  
359 1.4% 95%  
360 1.3% 94%  
361 2% 92%  
362 2% 90%  
363 2% 88%  
364 2% 86%  
365 4% 84%  
366 2% 80%  
367 3% 78%  
368 4% 75%  
369 4% 71%  
370 3% 67%  
371 5% 64%  
372 3% 59%  
373 5% 56% Median
374 5% 51%  
375 4% 46%  
376 3% 42%  
377 6% 38%  
378 4% 33%  
379 4% 29%  
380 4% 25%  
381 3% 21%  
382 3% 18%  
383 3% 15%  
384 2% 13%  
385 2% 10%  
386 2% 9%  
387 1.1% 7%  
388 1.0% 6%  
389 0.9% 5%  
390 0.9% 4%  
391 0.5% 3%  
392 0.6% 2%  
393 0.4% 2%  
394 0.2% 1.2%  
395 0.3% 1.0%  
396 0.2% 0.7%  
397 0.2% 0.5%  
398 0.1% 0.4%  
399 0.1% 0.3%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.6%  
320 0.2% 99.5%  
321 0.2% 99.4%  
322 0.2% 99.2%  
323 0.5% 98.9%  
324 0.5% 98%  
325 0.6% 98%  
326 0.8% 97%  
327 0.8% 97%  
328 2% 96%  
329 1.3% 94%  
330 1.4% 93%  
331 2% 92%  
332 1.4% 89%  
333 2% 88%  
334 3% 86%  
335 2% 83%  
336 4% 81%  
337 4% 77%  
338 5% 73%  
339 4% 68%  
340 3% 64%  
341 4% 61%  
342 4% 57%  
343 4% 53%  
344 5% 50% Median
345 5% 45%  
346 6% 40%  
347 4% 34%  
348 3% 30%  
349 4% 27%  
350 3% 23%  
351 3% 21%  
352 2% 17%  
353 2% 15%  
354 3% 13%  
355 1.4% 10% Majority
356 2% 8%  
357 1.3% 7%  
358 0.9% 5%  
359 1.0% 4%  
360 0.7% 3%  
361 0.6% 3%  
362 0.4% 2%  
363 0.4% 2%  
364 0.3% 1.2%  
365 0.3% 0.9%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0.2% 0.5%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.2% 99.7%  
320 0.2% 99.5%  
321 0.2% 99.4%  
322 0.3% 99.1%  
323 0.6% 98.9%  
324 0.4% 98%  
325 0.5% 98%  
326 0.5% 97%  
327 0.9% 97%  
328 1.0% 96%  
329 2% 95%  
330 2% 93%  
331 2% 91%  
332 2% 90%  
333 2% 88%  
334 2% 86%  
335 3% 83%  
336 4% 80%  
337 6% 76%  
338 4% 71%  
339 5% 67%  
340 3% 62%  
341 4% 59%  
342 4% 56%  
343 5% 51% Median
344 3% 46%  
345 6% 43%  
346 3% 37%  
347 3% 34%  
348 2% 31%  
349 4% 28%  
350 2% 25%  
351 4% 22%  
352 3% 18%  
353 3% 15%  
354 2% 12%  
355 1.5% 10% Majority
356 2% 9%  
357 2% 7%  
358 1.0% 6%  
359 2% 5%  
360 0.7% 3%  
361 0.5% 2%  
362 0.5% 2%  
363 0.3% 1.4%  
364 0.3% 1.1%  
365 0.2% 0.8%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0.2% 0.5%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.2% 99.6%  
291 0.4% 99.4%  
292 0.3% 99.0%  
293 0.3% 98.6%  
294 0.3% 98%  
295 0.7% 98%  
296 0.7% 97%  
297 1.3% 97%  
298 1.0% 95%  
299 1.2% 94%  
300 2% 93%  
301 2% 91%  
302 1.0% 89%  
303 4% 88%  
304 3% 84%  
305 3% 81%  
306 4% 78%  
307 5% 74%  
308 3% 70%  
309 5% 67%  
310 3% 62%  
311 6% 59%  
312 4% 54% Median
313 4% 49%  
314 4% 46%  
315 5% 42%  
316 6% 37%  
317 3% 31%  
318 2% 28%  
319 4% 26%  
320 3% 21%  
321 3% 18%  
322 3% 15%  
323 2% 13%  
324 2% 11%  
325 2% 9%  
326 2% 7% Last Result
327 1.0% 6%  
328 0.9% 5%  
329 0.9% 4%  
330 0.4% 3%  
331 0.7% 3%  
332 0.6% 2%  
333 0.3% 1.2%  
334 0.2% 1.0%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.2% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.6%  
290 0.1% 99.5%  
291 0.2% 99.4%  
292 0.4% 99.1%  
293 0.5% 98.8%  
294 0.5% 98%  
295 0.5% 98%  
296 0.8% 97%  
297 0.9% 96%  
298 2% 96%  
299 1.1% 94%  
300 2% 93%  
301 2% 91%  
302 2% 89%  
303 3% 87%  
304 3% 84%  
305 3% 82%  
306 6% 79%  
307 3% 73%  
308 4% 71%  
309 3% 67%  
310 5% 63%  
311 3% 58%  
312 6% 55% Median
313 5% 49%  
314 5% 45%  
315 3% 40%  
316 2% 37%  
317 4% 34%  
318 4% 30%  
319 4% 25%  
320 3% 21%  
321 3% 18%  
322 2% 15%  
323 2% 14%  
324 2% 11%  
325 2% 9%  
326 2% 8%  
327 2% 6%  
328 1.0% 5%  
329 0.5% 4%  
330 0.6% 3%  
331 0.5% 2%  
332 0.5% 2%  
333 0.4% 1.4%  
334 0.3% 1.0%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
290 0.2% 99.5%  
291 0.3% 99.3%  
292 0.3% 99.0%  
293 0.3% 98.7%  
294 0.7% 98%  
295 0.5% 98%  
296 0.8% 97%  
297 0.9% 96%  
298 0.8% 96%  
299 2% 95%  
300 1.3% 93%  
301 2% 92%  
302 3% 89%  
303 3% 87%  
304 3% 84%  
305 2% 81%  
306 3% 79%  
307 3% 76%  
308 5% 73%  
309 5% 68%  
310 5% 63%  
311 4% 58%  
312 5% 54%  
313 4% 49%  
314 3% 46% Median
315 4% 43%  
316 3% 39%  
317 4% 35%  
318 5% 31%  
319 4% 26%  
320 4% 22%  
321 3% 18%  
322 2% 15%  
323 2% 13%  
324 2% 11%  
325 1.1% 9%  
326 2% 8%  
327 1.3% 6%  
328 1.1% 5%  
329 0.8% 4%  
330 0.7% 3%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.3% 1.4%  
334 0.3% 1.0%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.2% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.2% 99.7%  
237 0.1% 99.5%  
238 0.3% 99.4%  
239 0.2% 99.1%  
240 0.5% 98.9%  
241 0.5% 98%  
242 0.8% 98%  
243 0.5% 97%  
244 1.3% 97%  
245 0.9% 95%  
246 2% 94%  
247 1.4% 93%  
248 3% 91%  
249 2% 88%  
250 3% 87%  
251 3% 84%  
252 3% 82%  
253 4% 78%  
254 4% 74%  
255 3% 70%  
256 5% 67%  
257 5% 62%  
258 5% 57%  
259 5% 53%  
260 3% 48% Median
261 5% 45%  
262 4% 40%  
263 5% 36%  
264 5% 31%  
265 4% 26%  
266 2% 22%  
267 4% 20%  
268 2% 16%  
269 3% 14%  
270 2% 11%  
271 2% 9%  
272 1.2% 7%  
273 2% 6%  
274 0.9% 5%  
275 0.8% 4%  
276 0.5% 3%  
277 0.8% 3%  
278 0.3% 2%  
279 0.3% 1.3%  
280 0.2% 1.0%  
281 0.3% 0.8%  
282 0.1% 0.5%  
283 0.1% 0.4%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0.1% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0.1% 99.8%  
177 0.2% 99.7%  
178 0.3% 99.5%  
179 0.2% 99.2%  
180 0.3% 99.0%  
181 0.5% 98.7%  
182 0.5% 98%  
183 0.9% 98%  
184 1.3% 97%  
185 1.3% 95%  
186 2% 94%  
187 2% 92%  
188 2% 90%  
189 2% 88%  
190 2% 86%  
191 4% 84%  
192 3% 80%  
193 5% 76%  
194 4% 71%  
195 5% 68%  
196 5% 63%  
197 3% 58%  
198 5% 55%  
199 8% 50% Median
200 5% 42%  
201 5% 37%  
202 3% 32%  
203 4% 29%  
204 3% 25%  
205 3% 22%  
206 4% 19%  
207 3% 16%  
208 3% 13%  
209 2% 10%  
210 1.4% 8%  
211 1.1% 7%  
212 0.8% 5%  
213 1.3% 5%  
214 0.7% 3%  
215 0.9% 3%  
216 0.4% 2%  
217 0.5% 1.3%  
218 0.2% 0.9%  
219 0.1% 0.7%  
220 0.1% 0.5%  
221 0.2% 0.4%  
222 0.1% 0.2%  
223 0.1% 0.2%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.7%  
148 0.2% 99.6%  
149 0.2% 99.5%  
150 0.3% 99.3%  
151 0.5% 98.9%  
152 0.7% 98%  
153 0.8% 98%  
154 1.0% 97%  
155 1.1% 96%  
156 2% 95%  
157 2% 93%  
158 2% 91%  
159 3% 89%  
160 2% 86%  
161 4% 84%  
162 4% 79%  
163 4% 75%  
164 6% 72%  
165 5% 66%  
166 5% 61%  
167 4% 56%  
168 6% 52%  
169 4% 46% Median
170 5% 42%  
171 6% 37%  
172 5% 31%  
173 4% 26%  
174 4% 22%  
175 3% 19%  
176 3% 16%  
177 3% 13%  
178 2% 10%  
179 2% 8%  
180 1.1% 6%  
181 1.3% 5%  
182 0.8% 4%  
183 0.8% 3%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.3% 1.1%  
187 0.2% 0.8%  
188 0.2% 0.6%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations