Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 28–30 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.3–24.3% 20.9–24.8% 20.6–25.1% 19.9–25.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.6–21.4% 18.2–21.9% 17.9–22.2% 17.3–22.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.8% 13.2–17.1% 12.7–17.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.4–12.8% 8.9–13.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.0% 10.0–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.4–12.8% 8.9–13.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.7–8.5% 5.3–9.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.4% 4.2–6.6% 3.8–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 175 164–186 161–190 158–192 153–198
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 153 143–164 140–168 138–171 133–176
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 115 106–126 104–128 101–131 97–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 77–93 74–96 72–98 69–103
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 85 77–93 74–96 73–98 69–103
Die Linke 69 54 47–61 46–63 44–65 41–69
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 35–47 33–49 32–51 30–54

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.2% 99.6%  
154 0.2% 99.4%  
155 0.2% 99.2%  
156 0.5% 99.0%  
157 0.6% 98%  
158 0.6% 98%  
159 0.8% 97%  
160 1.0% 96%  
161 1.0% 95%  
162 1.3% 94%  
163 3% 93%  
164 2% 90%  
165 2% 89%  
166 2% 87%  
167 3% 84%  
168 4% 81%  
169 3% 77%  
170 4% 74%  
171 4% 70%  
172 3% 66%  
173 4% 63%  
174 7% 59%  
175 4% 53% Median
176 3% 48%  
177 6% 45%  
178 4% 39%  
179 4% 35%  
180 5% 31%  
181 3% 25%  
182 3% 23%  
183 3% 20%  
184 3% 17%  
185 3% 15%  
186 2% 12%  
187 2% 10%  
188 2% 8%  
189 1.0% 6%  
190 1.1% 5%  
191 1.0% 4%  
192 0.7% 3%  
193 0.3% 2%  
194 0.5% 2%  
195 0.4% 2%  
196 0.4% 1.2%  
197 0.2% 0.8%  
198 0.2% 0.6%  
199 0.1% 0.4%  
200 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.2% 99.7%  
133 0.2% 99.5%  
134 0.3% 99.3%  
135 0.3% 99.1%  
136 0.4% 98.7%  
137 0.5% 98%  
138 1.0% 98%  
139 0.9% 97%  
140 1.3% 96%  
141 2% 95%  
142 2% 92%  
143 2% 91%  
144 3% 88%  
145 3% 85%  
146 3% 82%  
147 3% 80%  
148 3% 76%  
149 4% 73%  
150 3% 69%  
151 5% 66%  
152 6% 61%  
153 7% 56% Median
154 6% 49%  
155 5% 44%  
156 5% 38%  
157 4% 33%  
158 3% 29%  
159 4% 26%  
160 2% 21%  
161 2% 19%  
162 3% 17%  
163 2% 14%  
164 2% 12%  
165 2% 9%  
166 1.3% 7%  
167 0.9% 6%  
168 1.2% 5%  
169 0.6% 4%  
170 0.7% 3%  
171 0.4% 3%  
172 0.6% 2%  
173 0.3% 2%  
174 0.4% 1.2%  
175 0.3% 0.8%  
176 0.1% 0.5%  
177 0.1% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.6%  
98 0.3% 99.4%  
99 0.4% 99.1%  
100 0.6% 98.7%  
101 0.7% 98%  
102 0.9% 97%  
103 1.2% 97%  
104 2% 95%  
105 2% 94%  
106 3% 92%  
107 3% 89%  
108 3% 86%  
109 3% 83%  
110 5% 80%  
111 4% 75%  
112 5% 71%  
113 5% 66%  
114 5% 61%  
115 7% 56% Median
116 5% 50%  
117 5% 45%  
118 5% 40%  
119 5% 35%  
120 5% 30%  
121 4% 26%  
122 3% 22%  
123 3% 19%  
124 3% 16%  
125 3% 13%  
126 2% 10%  
127 2% 8%  
128 1.4% 6%  
129 1.2% 5%  
130 1.3% 4%  
131 0.5% 3%  
132 0.5% 2%  
133 0.4% 2%  
134 0.3% 1.1%  
135 0.2% 0.8%  
136 0.2% 0.6%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.5%  
70 0.4% 99.2%  
71 0.6% 98.8%  
72 0.7% 98%  
73 1.3% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 1.4% 94%  
76 2% 93%  
77 3% 90%  
78 4% 88%  
79 4% 84%  
80 6% 80%  
81 4% 74%  
82 5% 69%  
83 6% 64%  
84 8% 58% Median
85 5% 50%  
86 5% 45%  
87 7% 39%  
88 5% 33%  
89 4% 27%  
90 3% 23%  
91 4% 20%  
92 2% 15%  
93 3% 13%  
94 2% 10% Last Result
95 2% 8%  
96 1.2% 6%  
97 1.1% 5%  
98 1.0% 3%  
99 0.8% 2%  
100 0.5% 2%  
101 0.4% 1.1%  
102 0.2% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.5%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 0.4% 99.3%  
71 0.5% 98.9%  
72 0.8% 98%  
73 1.4% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 95%  
76 2% 93%  
77 3% 90%  
78 3% 87%  
79 5% 84%  
80 6% 79% Last Result
81 5% 73%  
82 5% 69%  
83 6% 64%  
84 6% 58%  
85 6% 52% Median
86 5% 46%  
87 6% 41%  
88 5% 35%  
89 4% 30%  
90 5% 26%  
91 5% 21%  
92 3% 15%  
93 3% 12%  
94 2% 9%  
95 1.4% 7%  
96 1.3% 6%  
97 1.3% 4%  
98 0.9% 3%  
99 0.7% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.5%  
101 0.3% 1.1%  
102 0.2% 0.8%  
103 0.1% 0.6%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.8%  
41 0.3% 99.7%  
42 0.4% 99.4%  
43 0.9% 99.0%  
44 1.0% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 4% 95%  
47 4% 91%  
48 5% 88%  
49 3% 83%  
50 6% 80%  
51 5% 74%  
52 6% 70%  
53 8% 63%  
54 9% 56% Median
55 9% 47%  
56 5% 37%  
57 8% 32%  
58 5% 24%  
59 5% 19%  
60 3% 14%  
61 3% 11%  
62 2% 9%  
63 2% 7%  
64 2% 5%  
65 0.8% 3%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.5% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.4% 99.5%  
31 1.0% 99.2%  
32 2% 98%  
33 2% 96%  
34 3% 94%  
35 4% 91%  
36 6% 87%  
37 8% 81%  
38 8% 74%  
39 7% 66%  
40 7% 59%  
41 9% 52% Median
42 10% 43%  
43 7% 33%  
44 6% 26%  
45 4% 20%  
46 4% 16% Last Result
47 4% 12%  
48 3% 8%  
49 2% 5%  
50 1.1% 4%  
51 0.9% 3%  
52 0.7% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 486 100% 473–497 470–501 466–503 461–510
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 454 100% 442–467 438–470 435–474 429–480
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 417 100% 404–428 400–432 396–435 390–443
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 387 99.9% 373–399 369–403 365–406 359–412
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 370 93% 356–382 353–386 349–389 343–396
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 354 49% 341–367 338–371 334–374 328–381
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 332 1.2% 318–344 315–348 311–351 305–359
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 322 0.1% 310–336 306–340 303–344 297–350
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 300 0% 288–313 284–317 282–321 275–327
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 302 0% 289–313 285–318 281–321 275–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 268 0% 256–282 253–285 250–289 244–295
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 201 0% 189–212 185–216 183–218 178–225
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 169 0% 159–181 156–184 153–187 148–193

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
454 0% 100%  
455 0% 99.9%  
456 0.1% 99.9%  
457 0% 99.8%  
458 0.1% 99.8%  
459 0.1% 99.7%  
460 0.1% 99.6%  
461 0.2% 99.5%  
462 0.2% 99.4%  
463 0.3% 99.2%  
464 0.6% 98.8%  
465 0.4% 98%  
466 0.6% 98% Last Result
467 0.5% 97%  
468 0.6% 97%  
469 0.8% 96%  
470 1.1% 95%  
471 2% 94%  
472 2% 92%  
473 2% 91%  
474 1.3% 88%  
475 3% 87%  
476 1.1% 84%  
477 4% 83%  
478 4% 80%  
479 3% 76%  
480 4% 73%  
481 5% 69%  
482 4% 64%  
483 3% 60%  
484 2% 57% Median
485 3% 55%  
486 5% 52%  
487 6% 46%  
488 4% 41%  
489 5% 36%  
490 3% 31%  
491 4% 28%  
492 2% 24%  
493 2% 22%  
494 4% 20%  
495 2% 16%  
496 3% 14%  
497 1.4% 10%  
498 2% 9%  
499 1.2% 7%  
500 0.9% 6%  
501 0.9% 5%  
502 0.5% 4%  
503 1.2% 4%  
504 0.6% 2%  
505 0.4% 2%  
506 0.5% 1.5%  
507 0.3% 1.0%  
508 0.1% 0.8%  
509 0.1% 0.7%  
510 0.1% 0.6%  
511 0.1% 0.4%  
512 0.1% 0.3%  
513 0% 0.2%  
514 0% 0.2%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0.1%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0.1% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.8%  
427 0.2% 99.8%  
428 0.1% 99.6%  
429 0.1% 99.5%  
430 0.3% 99.4%  
431 0.2% 99.1%  
432 0.3% 98.9%  
433 0.6% 98.6%  
434 0.2% 98%  
435 0.8% 98%  
436 0.6% 97%  
437 0.8% 97%  
438 1.3% 96%  
439 0.7% 94%  
440 2% 94%  
441 1.4% 92%  
442 2% 90%  
443 3% 89%  
444 3% 86%  
445 2% 83%  
446 3% 81%  
447 2% 78%  
448 4% 75%  
449 4% 72%  
450 2% 68%  
451 5% 66%  
452 4% 61%  
453 3% 57%  
454 4% 54% Median
455 3% 50%  
456 4% 47%  
457 3% 42%  
458 4% 39%  
459 4% 35%  
460 4% 31%  
461 5% 27%  
462 3% 22%  
463 2% 19%  
464 3% 17%  
465 2% 14%  
466 2% 12%  
467 2% 10%  
468 1.0% 9%  
469 2% 8%  
470 1.0% 6%  
471 0.7% 5%  
472 1.0% 4%  
473 0.4% 3%  
474 0.5% 3%  
475 0.4% 2%  
476 0.3% 2%  
477 0.4% 1.4%  
478 0.2% 1.0%  
479 0.2% 0.8%  
480 0.1% 0.5%  
481 0.1% 0.4%  
482 0.1% 0.3%  
483 0.1% 0.2%  
484 0% 0.2%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0.1% 99.7%  
390 0.2% 99.6%  
391 0.2% 99.4%  
392 0.2% 99.2%  
393 0.2% 99.0%  
394 0.5% 98.8%  
395 0.6% 98%  
396 0.6% 98%  
397 0.3% 97%  
398 0.5% 97%  
399 1.2% 96%  
400 1.4% 95%  
401 1.2% 94%  
402 1.3% 92%  
403 1.0% 91%  
404 0.8% 90%  
405 3% 89%  
406 2% 87%  
407 3% 84%  
408 1.0% 81%  
409 2% 80%  
410 4% 78%  
411 3% 74%  
412 5% 71%  
413 2% 66%  
414 3% 65%  
415 4% 62%  
416 4% 58% Median
417 6% 53%  
418 4% 47%  
419 3% 43%  
420 2% 39%  
421 5% 37%  
422 5% 33%  
423 5% 28%  
424 3% 22%  
425 2% 19%  
426 2% 18%  
427 4% 16%  
428 3% 13%  
429 1.0% 9%  
430 1.1% 8%  
431 0.6% 7%  
432 1.4% 6%  
433 1.0% 5%  
434 1.0% 4%  
435 0.5% 3%  
436 0.3% 2%  
437 0.3% 2%  
438 0.3% 2%  
439 0.5% 2%  
440 0.3% 1.1%  
441 0.1% 0.7%  
442 0.1% 0.7%  
443 0.1% 0.5%  
444 0.1% 0.4%  
445 0.1% 0.3%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.7%  
359 0.2% 99.6%  
360 0.1% 99.5%  
361 0.2% 99.3%  
362 0.4% 99.1%  
363 0.2% 98.7%  
364 0.4% 98%  
365 0.6% 98%  
366 0.4% 97%  
367 0.5% 97%  
368 0.9% 97%  
369 0.9% 96%  
370 0.7% 95%  
371 2% 94%  
372 2% 92%  
373 1.0% 91%  
374 3% 90%  
375 3% 86%  
376 2% 83%  
377 2% 82%  
378 5% 79%  
379 2% 74%  
380 3% 72%  
381 4% 69%  
382 3% 65%  
383 3% 63%  
384 4% 60%  
385 3% 56% Median
386 2% 53%  
387 6% 50%  
388 5% 44%  
389 3% 40%  
390 7% 37%  
391 3% 30%  
392 2% 27%  
393 4% 25%  
394 3% 21%  
395 1.3% 18%  
396 2% 16%  
397 2% 14%  
398 1.3% 12%  
399 1.0% 10%  
400 2% 9%  
401 1.0% 7%  
402 0.7% 6%  
403 2% 6%  
404 0.7% 4%  
405 0.5% 3%  
406 0.8% 3%  
407 0.4% 2%  
408 0.2% 1.4%  
409 0.3% 1.2%  
410 0.2% 0.9%  
411 0.1% 0.6%  
412 0.1% 0.5%  
413 0.1% 0.4%  
414 0% 0.3%  
415 0% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.7%  
343 0.2% 99.6%  
344 0.2% 99.5%  
345 0.2% 99.2%  
346 0.3% 99.1%  
347 0.5% 98.8%  
348 0.4% 98%  
349 0.5% 98%  
350 0.9% 97%  
351 0.7% 97%  
352 0.9% 96%  
353 1.3% 95%  
354 1.0% 94%  
355 2% 93% Majority
356 2% 91%  
357 2% 89%  
358 2% 87%  
359 2% 85%  
360 2% 83%  
361 3% 81%  
362 2% 78%  
363 3% 75%  
364 4% 72%  
365 3% 69%  
366 4% 66%  
367 3% 61%  
368 5% 59%  
369 4% 54% Median
370 4% 50%  
371 5% 46%  
372 4% 42%  
373 4% 38%  
374 3% 34%  
375 3% 31%  
376 4% 28%  
377 2% 23%  
378 3% 21%  
379 2% 18%  
380 3% 16%  
381 2% 13%  
382 2% 11%  
383 1.4% 9%  
384 1.4% 8%  
385 1.1% 7%  
386 1.0% 6%  
387 0.9% 5%  
388 0.6% 4%  
389 0.8% 3%  
390 0.3% 2%  
391 0.4% 2%  
392 0.3% 2%  
393 0.3% 1.2%  
394 0.2% 1.0%  
395 0.2% 0.8%  
396 0.1% 0.6%  
397 0.1% 0.5%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0.1% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.8%  
327 0.1% 99.7%  
328 0.2% 99.6%  
329 0.2% 99.4%  
330 0.3% 99.3%  
331 0.3% 99.0%  
332 0.3% 98.7%  
333 0.6% 98%  
334 0.5% 98%  
335 0.8% 97%  
336 0.7% 97%  
337 0.9% 96%  
338 1.1% 95%  
339 2% 94%  
340 2% 92%  
341 2% 91%  
342 2% 89%  
343 2% 87%  
344 2% 85%  
345 2% 83%  
346 3% 81%  
347 3% 78%  
348 3% 75%  
349 4% 72%  
350 3% 67%  
351 4% 65%  
352 4% 61%  
353 4% 57% Median
354 4% 53%  
355 3% 49% Majority
356 4% 46%  
357 5% 42%  
358 5% 37%  
359 3% 32%  
360 3% 30%  
361 4% 26%  
362 2% 23%  
363 3% 21%  
364 3% 18%  
365 2% 15%  
366 2% 13%  
367 2% 11%  
368 1.4% 9%  
369 1.0% 8%  
370 0.9% 7%  
371 2% 6%  
372 0.8% 4%  
373 0.6% 3%  
374 0.5% 3%  
375 0.4% 2%  
376 0.3% 2%  
377 0.4% 2%  
378 0.3% 1.2%  
379 0.2% 0.9%  
380 0.2% 0.7%  
381 0.1% 0.5%  
382 0.1% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.6%  
306 0.2% 99.5%  
307 0.2% 99.2%  
308 0.2% 99.0%  
309 0.3% 98.8%  
310 0.8% 98%  
311 0.5% 98%  
312 0.5% 97%  
313 0.5% 97%  
314 1.0% 96%  
315 1.1% 95%  
316 1.1% 94%  
317 1.0% 93%  
318 2% 92%  
319 2% 90%  
320 2% 88%  
321 2% 86%  
322 1.4% 84%  
323 3% 83%  
324 5% 80%  
325 2% 75%  
326 2% 73%  
327 4% 71%  
328 4% 68%  
329 3% 64%  
330 4% 61%  
331 4% 57% Median
332 4% 53%  
333 6% 49%  
334 4% 43%  
335 3% 38%  
336 2% 35%  
337 5% 33%  
338 4% 28%  
339 4% 24%  
340 2% 20%  
341 3% 18%  
342 3% 15%  
343 2% 13%  
344 1.4% 11%  
345 2% 9%  
346 1.1% 7%  
347 1.1% 6%  
348 1.0% 5%  
349 0.4% 4%  
350 0.9% 4%  
351 0.7% 3%  
352 0.4% 2%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.3% 1.2% Majority
356 0.2% 1.0%  
357 0.2% 0.8%  
358 0.1% 0.7%  
359 0.2% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.6%  
298 0.1% 99.5%  
299 0.2% 99.4%  
300 0.3% 99.1%  
301 0.2% 98.8%  
302 0.4% 98.6%  
303 0.8% 98%  
304 0.5% 97%  
305 0.7% 97%  
306 2% 96%  
307 0.7% 94%  
308 1.0% 94%  
309 2% 93%  
310 1.0% 91%  
311 1.3% 90%  
312 2% 88%  
313 2% 86%  
314 1.3% 84%  
315 3% 82%  
316 4% 79%  
317 2% 75%  
318 3% 73%  
319 7% 70%  
320 3% 63%  
321 5% 60%  
322 6% 56% Median
323 2% 50%  
324 3% 47%  
325 4% 44%  
326 3% 40%  
327 3% 37%  
328 4% 35%  
329 3% 31%  
330 2% 28%  
331 5% 26%  
332 2% 21%  
333 2% 18%  
334 3% 17%  
335 3% 14%  
336 1.0% 10%  
337 2% 9%  
338 2% 8%  
339 0.7% 6%  
340 0.9% 5%  
341 0.9% 4%  
342 0.5% 3%  
343 0.4% 3%  
344 0.6% 3%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.4% 1.3%  
348 0.2% 0.9%  
349 0.1% 0.7%  
350 0.2% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.5%  
276 0.1% 99.4%  
277 0.3% 99.3%  
278 0.2% 99.0%  
279 0.5% 98.8%  
280 0.3% 98%  
281 0.3% 98%  
282 0.9% 98%  
283 0.9% 97%  
284 0.9% 96%  
285 2% 95%  
286 1.2% 93%  
287 2% 92%  
288 2% 90%  
289 1.4% 88%  
290 2% 87%  
291 2% 85%  
292 2% 82%  
293 3% 81%  
294 4% 78%  
295 2% 74%  
296 4% 72%  
297 4% 68%  
298 5% 63%  
299 6% 59%  
300 3% 53% Median
301 4% 50%  
302 4% 46%  
303 4% 42%  
304 3% 38%  
305 3% 36%  
306 4% 33%  
307 4% 29%  
308 2% 25%  
309 3% 23%  
310 3% 20%  
311 3% 17%  
312 2% 14%  
313 2% 12%  
314 2% 10%  
315 2% 8%  
316 1.4% 7%  
317 1.1% 5%  
318 0.5% 4%  
319 0.6% 4%  
320 0.5% 3%  
321 0.7% 3%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.4% 2%  
324 0.3% 1.4%  
325 0.3% 1.0%  
326 0.2% 0.7%  
327 0.2% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.2% 99.7%  
275 0.2% 99.5%  
276 0.2% 99.4%  
277 0.4% 99.2%  
278 0.4% 98.8%  
279 0.4% 98%  
280 0.4% 98%  
281 0.4% 98%  
282 0.5% 97%  
283 0.6% 97%  
284 0.5% 96%  
285 0.9% 96%  
286 0.9% 95%  
287 1.5% 94%  
288 2% 92%  
289 2% 90%  
290 3% 88%  
291 4% 86%  
292 6% 82%  
293 3% 76%  
294 3% 73%  
295 3% 71%  
296 3% 67%  
297 3% 65%  
298 3% 62%  
299 3% 59%  
300 2% 56%  
301 3% 54% Median
302 4% 51%  
303 3% 47%  
304 5% 44%  
305 4% 39%  
306 6% 35%  
307 4% 29%  
308 4% 25%  
309 4% 21%  
310 2% 16%  
311 2% 14%  
312 2% 12%  
313 1.2% 10%  
314 1.0% 9%  
315 0.8% 8%  
316 0.9% 7%  
317 0.7% 6%  
318 0.8% 6%  
319 1.0% 5%  
320 1.1% 4%  
321 0.6% 3%  
322 0.6% 2%  
323 0.5% 2%  
324 0.4% 1.2%  
325 0.2% 0.8%  
326 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.1% 99.5%  
246 0.2% 99.4%  
247 0.3% 99.2%  
248 0.3% 98.9%  
249 0.5% 98.6%  
250 0.7% 98%  
251 0.9% 97%  
252 0.9% 96%  
253 1.5% 96%  
254 1.4% 94%  
255 2% 93%  
256 2% 91%  
257 1.3% 89%  
258 2% 88%  
259 2% 86%  
260 1.4% 84%  
261 3% 83%  
262 3% 80%  
263 3% 77%  
264 3% 74%  
265 6% 71%  
266 5% 65%  
267 4% 60%  
268 6% 56% Median
269 4% 50%  
270 3% 45%  
271 4% 43%  
272 3% 39%  
273 3% 36%  
274 3% 33%  
275 2% 30%  
276 2% 27%  
277 3% 25%  
278 3% 22%  
279 3% 19%  
280 3% 16%  
281 3% 13%  
282 2% 10%  
283 1.4% 8%  
284 1.4% 7%  
285 0.7% 5%  
286 0.7% 5%  
287 0.7% 4%  
288 0.6% 3%  
289 0.4% 3%  
290 0.5% 2%  
291 0.5% 2%  
292 0.4% 1.4%  
293 0.3% 1.0%  
294 0.2% 0.8%  
295 0.1% 0.6%  
296 0.1% 0.4%  
297 0.1% 0.3%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0% 100%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.8%  
176 0.1% 99.8%  
177 0.1% 99.7%  
178 0.3% 99.6%  
179 0.3% 99.3%  
180 0.3% 99.0%  
181 0.2% 98.7%  
182 0.3% 98%  
183 0.7% 98%  
184 0.9% 97%  
185 2% 96%  
186 0.8% 95%  
187 0.9% 94%  
188 2% 93%  
189 2% 92%  
190 4% 89%  
191 2% 85%  
192 2% 83%  
193 2% 82%  
194 4% 79%  
195 6% 75%  
196 3% 70%  
197 3% 66%  
198 2% 64%  
199 3% 62%  
200 7% 58% Median
201 6% 51%  
202 4% 45%  
203 2% 41%  
204 3% 39%  
205 6% 36%  
206 5% 30%  
207 4% 25%  
208 2% 21%  
209 2% 19%  
210 3% 17%  
211 3% 14%  
212 2% 11%  
213 2% 9%  
214 0.7% 8%  
215 0.7% 7%  
216 2% 6%  
217 0.9% 4%  
218 1.0% 3%  
219 0.3% 2%  
220 0.2% 2%  
221 0.6% 2%  
222 0.3% 1.4%  
223 0.4% 1.1%  
224 0.2% 0.7%  
225 0.1% 0.6%  
226 0.1% 0.5%  
227 0.1% 0.4%  
228 0.1% 0.3%  
229 0.1% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.7%  
147 0.1% 99.7%  
148 0.2% 99.5%  
149 0.3% 99.4%  
150 0.3% 99.1%  
151 0.5% 98.8%  
152 0.6% 98%  
153 0.8% 98%  
154 0.8% 97%  
155 1.0% 96%  
156 2% 95%  
157 1.1% 93%  
158 2% 92%  
159 2% 91%  
160 2% 89%  
161 2% 87%  
162 3% 85%  
163 4% 82%  
164 3% 77%  
165 5% 74%  
166 5% 68%  
167 4% 63%  
168 6% 59%  
169 5% 53% Median
170 3% 48%  
171 5% 45%  
172 3% 40%  
173 4% 37%  
174 3% 33%  
175 3% 30%  
176 4% 27%  
177 3% 23%  
178 3% 20%  
179 3% 17%  
180 2% 14%  
181 2% 12%  
182 2% 9%  
183 2% 7%  
184 1.1% 6%  
185 0.7% 4%  
186 0.9% 4%  
187 0.6% 3%  
188 0.5% 2%  
189 0.3% 2%  
190 0.4% 1.4%  
191 0.2% 1.0%  
192 0.2% 0.8%  
193 0.2% 0.6%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0.1% 0.3%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations