Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 28 June–2 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.4–24.3% 21.0–24.7% 20.6–25.1% 20.0–25.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.7–19.4% 16.3–19.8% 16.0–20.1% 15.4–20.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.8–18.4% 15.4–18.8% 15.1–19.1% 14.5–19.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.3–13.8% 9.9–14.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.4% 8.5–11.7% 8.0–12.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–9.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.4% 4.2–6.6% 3.9–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 175 164–186 161–189 158–192 153–198
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 138 128–149 126–152 123–154 119–159
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 131 121–141 118–144 116–146 112–152
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 92 84–101 82–104 80–106 76–111
Alternative für Deutschland 94 77 69–85 67–88 65–89 62–94
Die Linke 69 54 48–61 46–63 44–65 41–69
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 35–47 33–49 32–50 30–54

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0.1% 99.6%  
154 0.2% 99.5%  
155 0.4% 99.3%  
156 0.3% 98.9%  
157 0.4% 98.6%  
158 0.7% 98%  
159 0.8% 97%  
160 0.9% 97%  
161 1.2% 96%  
162 1.3% 95%  
163 2% 93%  
164 2% 91%  
165 2% 89%  
166 3% 88%  
167 3% 85%  
168 2% 81%  
169 4% 79%  
170 3% 75%  
171 5% 72%  
172 4% 67%  
173 4% 62%  
174 5% 59%  
175 6% 54% Median
176 4% 47%  
177 6% 44%  
178 4% 38%  
179 5% 34%  
180 4% 30%  
181 4% 26%  
182 4% 22%  
183 3% 18%  
184 2% 15%  
185 2% 14%  
186 2% 11%  
187 2% 9%  
188 1.3% 7%  
189 1.1% 6%  
190 1.3% 5%  
191 0.7% 4%  
192 0.4% 3%  
193 0.7% 2%  
194 0.5% 2%  
195 0.2% 1.2%  
196 0.3% 1.0%  
197 0.2% 0.8%  
198 0.2% 0.6%  
199 0.1% 0.4%  
200 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.3% 99.5%  
120 0.2% 99.2%  
121 0.6% 99.0%  
122 0.4% 98%  
123 1.0% 98%  
124 0.9% 97%  
125 1.1% 96%  
126 2% 95%  
127 1.4% 93%  
128 3% 92%  
129 2% 89%  
130 4% 87%  
131 3% 84%  
132 3% 80%  
133 5% 78%  
134 3% 72%  
135 6% 69%  
136 4% 63%  
137 6% 59%  
138 5% 53% Median
139 4% 48%  
140 7% 44%  
141 2% 38%  
142 7% 36%  
143 3% 29%  
144 4% 26%  
145 3% 22%  
146 2% 18%  
147 4% 16%  
148 1.4% 12%  
149 3% 11%  
150 1.3% 8%  
151 1.4% 6%  
152 1.2% 5%  
153 0.7% 4%  
154 1.0% 3%  
155 0.3% 2%  
156 0.5% 2%  
157 0.3% 1.2%  
158 0.3% 1.0%  
159 0.2% 0.6%  
160 0.1% 0.5%  
161 0.1% 0.4%  
162 0% 0.2%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.2% 99.7%  
112 0.3% 99.5%  
113 0.4% 99.3%  
114 0.3% 98.9%  
115 0.8% 98.6%  
116 0.8% 98%  
117 0.8% 97%  
118 1.3% 96%  
119 2% 95%  
120 2% 93%  
121 3% 91%  
122 3% 89%  
123 2% 86%  
124 5% 84%  
125 4% 79%  
126 3% 75%  
127 6% 72%  
128 4% 66%  
129 5% 63%  
130 5% 57%  
131 5% 52% Median
132 4% 47%  
133 7% 43%  
134 4% 36%  
135 4% 31%  
136 5% 28%  
137 4% 23%  
138 3% 19%  
139 3% 16%  
140 2% 13%  
141 3% 12%  
142 2% 9%  
143 1.2% 7%  
144 1.0% 6%  
145 1.3% 5%  
146 0.8% 3%  
147 0.5% 2%  
148 0.5% 2%  
149 0.4% 1.4%  
150 0.3% 1.0%  
151 0.2% 0.7%  
152 0.2% 0.5%  
153 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.1% 99.7%  
76 0.3% 99.6%  
77 0.4% 99.3%  
78 0.5% 98.9%  
79 0.7% 98%  
80 0.9% 98% Last Result
81 1.1% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 3% 94%  
84 2% 91%  
85 3% 89%  
86 4% 86%  
87 5% 82%  
88 4% 77%  
89 8% 74%  
90 4% 66%  
91 6% 61%  
92 9% 55% Median
93 6% 46%  
94 4% 40%  
95 7% 36%  
96 5% 29%  
97 4% 24%  
98 3% 20%  
99 3% 16%  
100 2% 14%  
101 3% 11%  
102 2% 8%  
103 1.3% 6%  
104 1.0% 5%  
105 1.2% 4%  
106 0.7% 3%  
107 0.5% 2%  
108 0.7% 2%  
109 0.2% 1.1%  
110 0.2% 0.9%  
111 0.3% 0.7%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 0.4% 99.2%  
64 0.4% 98.8%  
65 1.1% 98%  
66 1.4% 97%  
67 1.0% 96%  
68 3% 95%  
69 2% 92%  
70 2% 89%  
71 7% 87%  
72 4% 80%  
73 4% 77%  
74 10% 73%  
75 3% 63%  
76 5% 59%  
77 11% 54% Median
78 3% 44%  
79 5% 41%  
80 9% 36%  
81 3% 26%  
82 5% 24%  
83 5% 19%  
84 2% 14%  
85 3% 12%  
86 2% 9%  
87 1.0% 6%  
88 1.5% 5%  
89 1.5% 4%  
90 0.4% 2%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.3%  
93 0.1% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.4% 99.5%  
43 0.5% 99.1%  
44 1.1% 98.6%  
45 1.4% 97%  
46 2% 96%  
47 3% 94%  
48 4% 91%  
49 5% 87%  
50 6% 83%  
51 6% 77%  
52 7% 70%  
53 8% 63%  
54 8% 55% Median
55 6% 48%  
56 7% 42%  
57 7% 35%  
58 6% 28%  
59 6% 22%  
60 4% 16%  
61 3% 12%  
62 3% 9%  
63 2% 7%  
64 1.1% 5%  
65 1.4% 4%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.5%  
68 0.5% 1.1%  
69 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.5% 99.6%  
31 0.7% 99.1%  
32 1.4% 98%  
33 2% 97%  
34 3% 95%  
35 4% 92%  
36 6% 88%  
37 5% 82%  
38 8% 77%  
39 8% 69%  
40 9% 61%  
41 10% 52% Median
42 8% 42%  
43 7% 34%  
44 6% 27%  
45 5% 20%  
46 4% 16% Last Result
47 4% 11%  
48 2% 8%  
49 2% 6%  
50 1.3% 4%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.6% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 485 100% 474–497 470–500 466–503 461–509
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 447 100% 434–459 431–463 427–465 422–471
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 440 100% 427–452 423–455 421–458 415–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 385 99.9% 373–398 369–402 366–405 360–411
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 361 76% 348–375 346–377 341–382 335–389
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 355 51% 341–367 339–370 335–374 329–379
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 348 21% 334–360 330–362 328–367 321–372
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 324 0.1% 311–336 307–340 304–343 298–349
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 308 0% 295–321 292–325 289–328 283–334
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 293 0% 281–306 277–309 274–313 268–319
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 269 0% 257–281 254–285 251–288 245–295
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 223 0% 212–235 208–239 206–242 200–248
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 185 0% 174–197 171–200 168–203 163–208

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
454 0% 100%  
455 0% 99.9%  
456 0% 99.9%  
457 0.1% 99.9%  
458 0.1% 99.8%  
459 0.1% 99.7%  
460 0.1% 99.7%  
461 0.2% 99.5%  
462 0.3% 99.3%  
463 0.2% 99.1%  
464 0.3% 98.9%  
465 0.4% 98.5%  
466 0.8% 98% Last Result
467 0.6% 97%  
468 0.6% 97%  
469 0.8% 96%  
470 0.9% 95%  
471 2% 94%  
472 1.5% 93%  
473 1.4% 91%  
474 2% 90%  
475 2% 88%  
476 2% 86%  
477 3% 83%  
478 3% 81%  
479 3% 78%  
480 4% 75%  
481 4% 71%  
482 2% 67%  
483 5% 64%  
484 3% 60%  
485 8% 56% Median
486 4% 48%  
487 4% 44%  
488 4% 40%  
489 5% 36%  
490 4% 31%  
491 3% 27%  
492 3% 24%  
493 4% 21%  
494 4% 17%  
495 2% 14%  
496 2% 12%  
497 2% 11%  
498 2% 9%  
499 2% 7%  
500 1.3% 5%  
501 0.7% 4%  
502 0.7% 3%  
503 0.6% 3%  
504 0.4% 2%  
505 0.3% 2%  
506 0.3% 1.4%  
507 0.2% 1.1%  
508 0.2% 0.9%  
509 0.2% 0.6%  
510 0.1% 0.4%  
511 0.1% 0.4%  
512 0.1% 0.3%  
513 0.1% 0.2%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.7%  
421 0.1% 99.6%  
422 0.1% 99.5%  
423 0.2% 99.4%  
424 0.2% 99.2%  
425 0.3% 98.9%  
426 0.5% 98.6%  
427 0.7% 98%  
428 0.8% 97%  
429 0.7% 97%  
430 0.9% 96%  
431 0.9% 95%  
432 1.2% 94%  
433 2% 93%  
434 1.5% 91%  
435 3% 89%  
436 3% 86%  
437 2% 84%  
438 2% 81%  
439 2% 79%  
440 3% 77%  
441 3% 74%  
442 2% 71%  
443 3% 69%  
444 6% 66%  
445 4% 61%  
446 6% 56% Median
447 4% 50%  
448 8% 46%  
449 3% 38%  
450 2% 35%  
451 3% 33%  
452 3% 30%  
453 3% 27%  
454 3% 24%  
455 3% 21%  
456 2% 18%  
457 3% 16%  
458 2% 13%  
459 2% 11%  
460 2% 9%  
461 1.2% 7%  
462 0.7% 6%  
463 1.0% 5%  
464 1.1% 4%  
465 0.9% 3%  
466 0.6% 2%  
467 0.4% 2%  
468 0.3% 1.3%  
469 0.3% 1.1%  
470 0.2% 0.8%  
471 0.1% 0.6%  
472 0.1% 0.5%  
473 0.1% 0.4%  
474 0.1% 0.3%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0.1% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.9%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.1% 99.7%  
413 0% 99.6%  
414 0% 99.6%  
415 0.1% 99.5%  
416 0.5% 99.4%  
417 0.6% 98.9%  
418 0.2% 98%  
419 0.1% 98%  
420 0.6% 98%  
421 1.2% 98%  
422 1.3% 96%  
423 0.7% 95%  
424 0.3% 94%  
425 0.8% 94%  
426 2% 93%  
427 3% 91%  
428 2% 88%  
429 0.6% 85%  
430 2% 85%  
431 3% 83%  
432 6% 80%  
433 3% 73%  
434 1.0% 70%  
435 2% 69%  
436 4% 67%  
437 8% 64%  
438 4% 56%  
439 1.4% 52% Median
440 2% 50%  
441 6% 48%  
442 8% 42%  
443 4% 34%  
444 2% 30%  
445 2% 28%  
446 2% 27%  
447 5% 24%  
448 4% 19%  
449 1.0% 15%  
450 1.0% 14%  
451 2% 13%  
452 3% 12%  
453 2% 9%  
454 0.8% 6%  
455 0.6% 6%  
456 0.9% 5%  
457 1.4% 4%  
458 0.6% 3%  
459 0.4% 2%  
460 0.1% 2%  
461 0.2% 1.5%  
462 0.3% 1.3%  
463 0.3% 0.9%  
464 0.2% 0.6%  
465 0% 0.4%  
466 0.1% 0.4%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.7%  
359 0.1% 99.7%  
360 0.1% 99.5%  
361 0.2% 99.4%  
362 0.2% 99.1%  
363 0.2% 98.9%  
364 0.5% 98.7%  
365 0.3% 98%  
366 0.7% 98%  
367 0.7% 97%  
368 0.9% 96%  
369 1.0% 95%  
370 1.4% 94%  
371 1.1% 93%  
372 1.0% 92%  
373 2% 91%  
374 2% 89%  
375 3% 87%  
376 2% 84%  
377 3% 82%  
378 3% 78%  
379 4% 75%  
380 3% 71%  
381 3% 68%  
382 4% 65%  
383 3% 61%  
384 5% 58%  
385 3% 53% Median
386 4% 50%  
387 4% 45%  
388 6% 42%  
389 3% 36%  
390 3% 33%  
391 4% 30%  
392 3% 26%  
393 3% 23%  
394 2% 20%  
395 2% 18%  
396 2% 16%  
397 2% 13%  
398 2% 11%  
399 2% 10%  
400 1.3% 8%  
401 1.2% 7%  
402 1.1% 5%  
403 0.7% 4%  
404 0.6% 3%  
405 0.6% 3%  
406 0.6% 2%  
407 0.3% 2%  
408 0.3% 1.3%  
409 0.2% 1.0%  
410 0.2% 0.8%  
411 0.1% 0.6%  
412 0.1% 0.5%  
413 0.1% 0.3%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.9%  
333 0.2% 99.8%  
334 0.1% 99.7%  
335 0.1% 99.6%  
336 0% 99.5%  
337 0% 99.5%  
338 0.1% 99.4%  
339 0.4% 99.3%  
340 0.9% 98.9%  
341 1.0% 98%  
342 0.5% 97%  
343 0.2% 97%  
344 0.1% 96%  
345 0.5% 96%  
346 1.4% 96%  
347 4% 94%  
348 3% 90%  
349 1.2% 88%  
350 0.4% 87%  
351 0.1% 86%  
352 0.5% 86%  
353 3% 86%  
354 7% 83%  
355 8% 76% Majority
356 3% 68%  
357 1.2% 65%  
358 0.2% 64%  
359 1.2% 64%  
360 4% 62%  
361 11% 58% Median
362 6% 47%  
363 4% 42%  
364 0.7% 38%  
365 0.1% 37%  
366 0.5% 37%  
367 3% 36%  
368 7% 34%  
369 9% 27%  
370 3% 18%  
371 0.8% 15%  
372 0.1% 14%  
373 0.3% 14%  
374 2% 14%  
375 3% 12%  
376 4% 9%  
377 1.4% 5%  
378 0.3% 4%  
379 0% 4%  
380 0.1% 4%  
381 0.4% 4%  
382 0.7% 3%  
383 1.1% 2%  
384 0.6% 1.4%  
385 0.1% 0.8%  
386 0% 0.7%  
387 0% 0.7%  
388 0.1% 0.6%  
389 0.2% 0.6%  
390 0.2% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0% 99.7%  
327 0% 99.7%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0.4% 99.6%  
330 0.3% 99.2%  
331 0.2% 98.9%  
332 0% 98.7%  
333 0.2% 98.7%  
334 0.9% 98%  
335 1.1% 98%  
336 0.9% 96%  
337 0.2% 96%  
338 0.3% 95%  
339 1.1% 95%  
340 3% 94%  
341 2% 91%  
342 1.0% 89%  
343 0.2% 88%  
344 0.8% 88%  
345 4% 87%  
346 6% 83%  
347 3% 76%  
348 0.9% 74%  
349 1.0% 73%  
350 3% 72%  
351 6% 68%  
352 6% 62%  
353 4% 55%  
354 0.6% 52% Median
355 3% 51% Majority
356 6% 49%  
357 9% 42%  
358 3% 34%  
359 0.9% 30%  
360 0.7% 29%  
361 2% 29%  
362 8% 26%  
363 3% 18%  
364 1.3% 15%  
365 0.5% 13%  
366 1.1% 13%  
367 2% 12%  
368 3% 9%  
369 2% 7%  
370 0.3% 5%  
371 0.3% 5%  
372 1.0% 5%  
373 0.9% 3%  
374 0.9% 3%  
375 0.2% 2%  
376 0.1% 1.5%  
377 0.2% 1.4%  
378 0.3% 1.2%  
379 0.4% 0.9%  
380 0.1% 0.5%  
381 0% 0.4%  
382 0% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.7%  
321 0.2% 99.6%  
322 0.2% 99.4%  
323 0.2% 99.2%  
324 0.2% 99.0%  
325 0.2% 98.7%  
326 0.4% 98%  
327 0.3% 98%  
328 0.8% 98%  
329 0.9% 97%  
330 1.1% 96%  
331 2% 95%  
332 1.2% 93%  
333 1.0% 92%  
334 1.1% 91%  
335 1.1% 89%  
336 2% 88%  
337 1.5% 86%  
338 3% 85%  
339 3% 82%  
340 4% 78%  
341 5% 74%  
342 5% 68%  
343 2% 64%  
344 2% 62%  
345 2% 59%  
346 2% 57%  
347 3% 55% Median
348 5% 52%  
349 6% 47%  
350 6% 41%  
351 5% 34%  
352 3% 29%  
353 3% 26%  
354 2% 23%  
355 2% 21% Majority
356 2% 20%  
357 2% 18%  
358 2% 16%  
359 3% 14%  
360 3% 11%  
361 2% 8%  
362 1.1% 6%  
363 0.8% 5%  
364 0.4% 4%  
365 0.6% 4%  
366 0.6% 3%  
367 0.4% 3%  
368 0.5% 2%  
369 0.4% 2%  
370 0.3% 1.3%  
371 0.3% 0.9%  
372 0.2% 0.6%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.4%  
375 0% 0.3%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.5%  
299 0.2% 99.4%  
300 0.2% 99.2%  
301 0.3% 99.0%  
302 0.3% 98.7%  
303 0.6% 98%  
304 0.6% 98%  
305 0.6% 97%  
306 0.7% 97%  
307 1.1% 96%  
308 1.2% 95%  
309 1.3% 93%  
310 2% 92%  
311 2% 90%  
312 2% 89%  
313 2% 87%  
314 2% 84%  
315 2% 82%  
316 3% 80%  
317 3% 77%  
318 4% 74%  
319 3% 70%  
320 3% 67%  
321 6% 64%  
322 4% 58%  
323 4% 55% Median
324 3% 50%  
325 5% 47%  
326 3% 42%  
327 4% 39%  
328 3% 35%  
329 3% 32%  
330 4% 29%  
331 3% 25%  
332 3% 22%  
333 2% 18%  
334 3% 16%  
335 2% 13%  
336 2% 11%  
337 1.0% 9%  
338 1.1% 8%  
339 1.4% 7%  
340 1.0% 6%  
341 0.9% 5%  
342 0.7% 4%  
343 0.7% 3%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.2% 1.3%  
347 0.2% 1.1%  
348 0.2% 0.9%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.1% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.5%  
284 0.1% 99.4%  
285 0.2% 99.2%  
286 0.5% 99.1%  
287 0.5% 98.6%  
288 0.4% 98%  
289 0.7% 98%  
290 0.6% 97%  
291 0.7% 96%  
292 1.0% 96%  
293 1.3% 95%  
294 2% 93%  
295 2% 92%  
296 2% 90%  
297 1.2% 87%  
298 2% 86%  
299 2% 84%  
300 3% 82%  
301 4% 79%  
302 3% 74%  
303 3% 71%  
304 2% 68%  
305 4% 66%  
306 5% 62%  
307 3% 57%  
308 6% 54% Median
309 5% 48%  
310 4% 43%  
311 3% 39%  
312 2% 37%  
313 3% 34%  
314 5% 31%  
315 4% 26%  
316 3% 22%  
317 2% 19%  
318 3% 18%  
319 2% 15%  
320 2% 13%  
321 2% 11%  
322 1.4% 10%  
323 2% 8%  
324 1.1% 6%  
325 0.8% 5%  
326 0.5% 4% Last Result
327 0.8% 4%  
328 0.8% 3%  
329 0.6% 2%  
330 0.4% 2%  
331 0.2% 1.2%  
332 0.2% 1.0%  
333 0.1% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.7%  
268 0.2% 99.5%  
269 0.2% 99.4%  
270 0.3% 99.2%  
271 0.3% 98.9%  
272 0.4% 98.5%  
273 0.5% 98%  
274 0.7% 98%  
275 0.5% 97%  
276 1.2% 96%  
277 1.0% 95%  
278 1.2% 94%  
279 1.4% 93%  
280 1.5% 92%  
281 2% 90%  
282 2% 88%  
283 2% 85%  
284 3% 83%  
285 3% 80%  
286 3% 78%  
287 4% 74%  
288 3% 71%  
289 4% 68%  
290 3% 64%  
291 5% 61%  
292 4% 56%  
293 4% 52% Median
294 4% 48%  
295 3% 45%  
296 6% 42%  
297 4% 35%  
298 4% 32%  
299 3% 28%  
300 2% 25%  
301 3% 23%  
302 3% 19%  
303 3% 16%  
304 2% 14%  
305 1.5% 12%  
306 2% 11%  
307 1.3% 9%  
308 1.3% 7%  
309 1.3% 6%  
310 0.6% 5%  
311 1.0% 4%  
312 0.5% 3%  
313 0.5% 3%  
314 0.5% 2%  
315 0.3% 2%  
316 0.3% 1.2%  
317 0.2% 0.9%  
318 0.2% 0.7%  
319 0.1% 0.5%  
320 0.1% 0.4%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.2% 99.5%  
246 0.2% 99.3%  
247 0.4% 99.1%  
248 0.4% 98.8%  
249 0.5% 98%  
250 0.4% 98%  
251 0.9% 98%  
252 0.8% 97%  
253 0.7% 96%  
254 2% 95%  
255 1.3% 93%  
256 2% 92%  
257 2% 90%  
258 2% 89%  
259 3% 86%  
260 3% 84%  
261 3% 81%  
262 3% 78%  
263 4% 75%  
264 3% 71%  
265 3% 68%  
266 4% 65%  
267 3% 61%  
268 4% 58%  
269 4% 54% Median
270 4% 50%  
271 4% 46%  
272 5% 42%  
273 3% 37%  
274 5% 34%  
275 3% 29%  
276 3% 26%  
277 2% 23%  
278 5% 20%  
279 1.4% 16%  
280 2% 14%  
281 2% 12%  
282 1.2% 10%  
283 1.2% 9%  
284 1.1% 7%  
285 1.3% 6%  
286 0.8% 5%  
287 0.9% 4%  
288 0.7% 3%  
289 0.4% 2%  
290 0.6% 2%  
291 0.2% 1.5%  
292 0.5% 1.3%  
293 0.1% 0.8%  
294 0.1% 0.7%  
295 0.1% 0.5%  
296 0.1% 0.4%  
297 0.1% 0.3%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0.1% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.8%  
198 0.1% 99.8%  
199 0.1% 99.7%  
200 0.2% 99.6%  
201 0.2% 99.4%  
202 0.3% 99.2%  
203 0.4% 98.9%  
204 0.5% 98.5%  
205 0.5% 98%  
206 0.8% 98%  
207 0.6% 97%  
208 1.4% 96%  
209 2% 95%  
210 0.9% 93%  
211 2% 92%  
212 2% 90%  
213 2% 88%  
214 4% 86%  
215 2% 83%  
216 3% 81%  
217 5% 78%  
218 3% 73%  
219 5% 70%  
220 3% 65%  
221 4% 62%  
222 6% 58%  
223 3% 52% Median
224 4% 49%  
225 6% 45%  
226 4% 39%  
227 4% 35%  
228 4% 31%  
229 3% 27%  
230 3% 24%  
231 3% 21%  
232 2% 18%  
233 3% 16% Last Result
234 2% 13%  
235 2% 11%  
236 2% 10%  
237 1.4% 8%  
238 1.0% 6%  
239 1.5% 5%  
240 0.8% 4%  
241 0.5% 3%  
242 0.5% 3%  
243 0.4% 2%  
244 0.4% 2%  
245 0.3% 1.2%  
246 0.2% 0.9%  
247 0.2% 0.7%  
248 0.1% 0.5%  
249 0.1% 0.4%  
250 0.1% 0.3%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.1% 99.7%  
163 0.2% 99.6%  
164 0.2% 99.4%  
165 0.3% 99.2%  
166 0.5% 98.9%  
167 0.3% 98%  
168 0.8% 98%  
169 0.8% 97%  
170 1.0% 96%  
171 1.2% 95%  
172 1.3% 94%  
173 1.4% 93%  
174 2% 92%  
175 3% 89%  
176 2% 87%  
177 4% 85%  
178 4% 81%  
179 2% 77%  
180 4% 75%  
181 4% 71%  
182 3% 67%  
183 4% 64%  
184 5% 60%  
185 5% 55% Median
186 5% 49%  
187 6% 45%  
188 3% 39%  
189 4% 36%  
190 4% 32%  
191 4% 27%  
192 3% 24%  
193 3% 20%  
194 4% 18%  
195 2% 14%  
196 2% 12%  
197 2% 10%  
198 1.5% 8%  
199 1.4% 7%  
200 0.9% 5%  
201 0.9% 4%  
202 0.7% 4%  
203 0.6% 3%  
204 0.6% 2%  
205 0.4% 2%  
206 0.3% 1.3%  
207 0.2% 0.9%  
208 0.2% 0.7%  
209 0.2% 0.5%  
210 0.1% 0.3%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0.1% 0.2%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations