Opinion Poll by Forsa, 29 June–5 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 24.4% 23.1–25.6% 22.8–26.0% 22.5–26.3% 21.9–26.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.3–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.6% 5.0–6.4% 4.8–6.6% 4.7–6.8% 4.4–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 188 179–198 176–200 173–203 169–207
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 146 138–155 135–158 133–160 129–164
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 116 108–124 106–126 104–128 100–132
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 84 78–92 76–93 74–95 71–99
Alternative für Deutschland 94 77 70–83 68–85 67–87 64–91
Die Linke 69 54 48–60 47–61 46–63 43–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 44 39–49 37–50 36–52 34–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.2% 99.6%  
170 0.3% 99.4%  
171 0.3% 99.1%  
172 0.6% 98.8%  
173 0.7% 98%  
174 1.1% 97%  
175 0.7% 96%  
176 2% 96%  
177 1.3% 94%  
178 2% 93%  
179 2% 90%  
180 3% 89%  
181 4% 85%  
182 4% 82%  
183 7% 77%  
184 3% 71%  
185 7% 67%  
186 3% 61%  
187 6% 58%  
188 3% 51% Median
189 6% 48%  
190 3% 42%  
191 6% 39%  
192 4% 32%  
193 5% 28%  
194 4% 23%  
195 4% 19%  
196 3% 15%  
197 2% 12%  
198 2% 10%  
199 1.2% 8%  
200 2% 7% Last Result
201 1.0% 5%  
202 1.4% 4%  
203 0.6% 3%  
204 0.9% 2%  
205 0.3% 1.1%  
206 0.3% 0.8%  
207 0.1% 0.5%  
208 0.1% 0.4%  
209 0.1% 0.3%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0.1% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.2% 99.7%  
130 0.4% 99.4%  
131 0.4% 99.1%  
132 0.7% 98.7%  
133 0.9% 98%  
134 1.1% 97%  
135 2% 96%  
136 2% 94%  
137 2% 93%  
138 3% 90%  
139 3% 87%  
140 5% 84%  
141 3% 79%  
142 4% 76%  
143 5% 72%  
144 6% 67%  
145 6% 60%  
146 6% 55% Median
147 6% 48%  
148 5% 42%  
149 4% 37%  
150 6% 33%  
151 5% 27%  
152 4% 22%  
153 4% 18%  
154 3% 14%  
155 2% 11%  
156 2% 9%  
157 1.4% 7%  
158 1.4% 5%  
159 1.1% 4%  
160 0.7% 3%  
161 0.7% 2%  
162 0.4% 1.3%  
163 0.3% 0.9%  
164 0.2% 0.6%  
165 0.1% 0.4%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.4% 99.5%  
102 0.5% 99.1%  
103 0.5% 98.6%  
104 0.8% 98%  
105 2% 97%  
106 2% 96%  
107 2% 93%  
108 2% 91%  
109 3% 89%  
110 4% 85%  
111 4% 81%  
112 4% 77%  
113 6% 73%  
114 8% 67%  
115 6% 59%  
116 5% 53% Median
117 5% 48%  
118 8% 43%  
119 7% 36%  
120 5% 29%  
121 5% 23%  
122 4% 18%  
123 3% 14%  
124 2% 11%  
125 1.3% 9%  
126 2% 7%  
127 1.5% 5%  
128 1.1% 3%  
129 0.7% 2%  
130 0.6% 2%  
131 0.4% 1.0%  
132 0.2% 0.7%  
133 0.1% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.4% 99.4%  
73 0.7% 99.0%  
74 1.2% 98%  
75 1.5% 97%  
76 2% 96%  
77 3% 94%  
78 4% 91%  
79 5% 87%  
80 5% 82% Last Result
81 6% 77%  
82 8% 71%  
83 6% 63%  
84 7% 57% Median
85 9% 50%  
86 5% 41%  
87 8% 36%  
88 6% 28%  
89 3% 22%  
90 6% 19%  
91 2% 12%  
92 2% 10%  
93 3% 8%  
94 0.9% 5%  
95 1.4% 4%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.3% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.2%  
99 0.2% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 0.5% 99.3%  
66 1.0% 98.8%  
67 1.5% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 3% 94%  
70 3% 92%  
71 5% 88%  
72 6% 83%  
73 5% 77%  
74 9% 72%  
75 6% 63%  
76 7% 57%  
77 10% 50% Median
78 6% 40%  
79 7% 35%  
80 7% 28%  
81 4% 21%  
82 5% 18%  
83 4% 13%  
84 2% 9%  
85 3% 7%  
86 1.2% 5%  
87 1.1% 3%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.4% 1.4%  
90 0.4% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.7%  
44 0.6% 99.4%  
45 1.1% 98.8%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 96%  
48 4% 93%  
49 5% 89%  
50 6% 84%  
51 8% 78%  
52 8% 69%  
53 9% 61%  
54 9% 52% Median
55 8% 43%  
56 8% 35%  
57 6% 26%  
58 6% 20%  
59 5% 15%  
60 3% 10%  
61 2% 7%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.2%  
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.7%  
35 0.6% 99.2%  
36 2% 98.6%  
37 2% 96%  
38 4% 94%  
39 6% 90%  
40 5% 84%  
41 8% 79%  
42 12% 71%  
43 6% 59%  
44 13% 53% Median
45 10% 40%  
46 6% 30% Last Result
47 8% 24%  
48 4% 16%  
49 4% 12%  
50 3% 8%  
51 2% 5%  
52 1.3% 3%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.9%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 495 100% 484–503 480–506 478–508 472–512
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 462 100% 452–473 449–476 446–478 442–482
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 432 100% 422–442 419–446 416–448 411–453
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 392 100% 382–403 379–407 376–409 371–414
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 378 99.7% 367–389 364–392 361–394 356–399
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 347 18% 335–357 333–361 330–363 325–368
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 348 22% 337–358 334–361 330–363 324–368
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 317 0% 306–327 302–330 300–333 295–338
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 316 0% 305–326 302–330 300–333 295–338
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 308 0% 298–319 295–322 292–325 287–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 262 0% 251–273 248–276 247–279 241–283
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 201 0% 191–210 188–213 186–215 181–220
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 171 0% 160–181 159–183 158–184 151–186

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 99.9%  
469 0.1% 99.9%  
470 0.1% 99.8%  
471 0.1% 99.7%  
472 0.2% 99.6%  
473 0.2% 99.4%  
474 0.2% 99.1%  
475 0.4% 98.9%  
476 0.3% 98.6%  
477 0.6% 98%  
478 0.5% 98%  
479 1.0% 97%  
480 1.4% 96%  
481 2% 95%  
482 1.1% 93%  
483 2% 92%  
484 2% 90%  
485 3% 88%  
486 2% 85%  
487 3% 84%  
488 4% 80%  
489 4% 76%  
490 4% 73%  
491 6% 69%  
492 3% 63%  
493 6% 60%  
494 4% 55% Median
495 4% 50%  
496 4% 46%  
497 5% 42%  
498 5% 37%  
499 6% 32%  
500 5% 26%  
501 4% 21%  
502 4% 17%  
503 4% 13%  
504 1.4% 9%  
505 2% 8%  
506 1.2% 5%  
507 1.1% 4%  
508 1.0% 3%  
509 0.6% 2%  
510 0.6% 1.5%  
511 0.2% 0.9%  
512 0.3% 0.6%  
513 0.1% 0.4%  
514 0.1% 0.2%  
515 0.1% 0.2%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0% 99.9%  
440 0.1% 99.8%  
441 0.1% 99.7%  
442 0.2% 99.6%  
443 0.3% 99.4%  
444 0.4% 99.1%  
445 0.4% 98.6%  
446 0.8% 98%  
447 0.7% 97%  
448 1.2% 97%  
449 1.1% 96%  
450 1.5% 94%  
451 2% 93%  
452 2% 91%  
453 2% 89%  
454 3% 88%  
455 3% 85%  
456 3% 82%  
457 3% 79%  
458 4% 76%  
459 6% 72%  
460 7% 66%  
461 5% 59%  
462 6% 54% Median
463 3% 48%  
464 7% 44%  
465 4% 38%  
466 4% 34%  
467 4% 29%  
468 3% 26%  
469 3% 23%  
470 3% 20%  
471 3% 17%  
472 2% 14%  
473 2% 11%  
474 2% 9%  
475 2% 7%  
476 2% 6%  
477 1.2% 4%  
478 0.7% 3%  
479 0.8% 2%  
480 0.3% 1.3%  
481 0.3% 0.9%  
482 0.2% 0.7%  
483 0.1% 0.5%  
484 0.1% 0.4%  
485 0.1% 0.3%  
486 0% 0.2%  
487 0.1% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.8%  
409 0.1% 99.8%  
410 0.1% 99.6%  
411 0.2% 99.5%  
412 0.2% 99.3%  
413 0.5% 99.1%  
414 0.3% 98.6%  
415 0.7% 98%  
416 0.5% 98%  
417 0.9% 97%  
418 0.9% 96%  
419 1.4% 95%  
420 1.0% 94%  
421 2% 93%  
422 2% 91%  
423 4% 89%  
424 2% 86%  
425 3% 83%  
426 3% 80%  
427 4% 77%  
428 4% 73%  
429 6% 69%  
430 5% 63%  
431 4% 58%  
432 6% 54% Median
433 4% 48%  
434 5% 45%  
435 5% 40%  
436 4% 35%  
437 4% 31%  
438 4% 27%  
439 3% 23%  
440 4% 20%  
441 3% 16%  
442 3% 13%  
443 1.0% 9%  
444 2% 8%  
445 1.2% 6%  
446 2% 5%  
447 0.8% 3%  
448 0.7% 3%  
449 0.4% 2%  
450 0.6% 2%  
451 0.2% 1.1%  
452 0.3% 0.8%  
453 0.1% 0.5%  
454 0.1% 0.4%  
455 0.1% 0.2%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.7%  
371 0.3% 99.6%  
372 0.1% 99.4%  
373 0.5% 99.2%  
374 0.3% 98.8%  
375 0.5% 98.5%  
376 0.6% 98%  
377 0.6% 97%  
378 1.0% 97%  
379 1.2% 96%  
380 1.4% 95%  
381 2% 93%  
382 3% 91%  
383 2% 89%  
384 2% 87%  
385 4% 84%  
386 2% 81%  
387 5% 78%  
388 4% 74%  
389 4% 69%  
390 5% 65%  
391 4% 60%  
392 6% 56%  
393 4% 50% Median
394 6% 46%  
395 3% 41%  
396 5% 37%  
397 4% 32%  
398 4% 28%  
399 4% 24%  
400 3% 21%  
401 3% 18%  
402 2% 15%  
403 3% 13%  
404 2% 10%  
405 2% 8%  
406 1.4% 6%  
407 1.2% 5%  
408 1.0% 4%  
409 0.6% 3%  
410 0.6% 2%  
411 0.4% 2%  
412 0.4% 1.3%  
413 0.2% 0.9%  
414 0.2% 0.7%  
415 0.2% 0.5%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.2% 99.7% Majority
356 0.1% 99.6%  
357 0.3% 99.5%  
358 0.3% 99.2%  
359 0.3% 98.9%  
360 0.6% 98.6%  
361 0.6% 98%  
362 0.9% 97%  
363 0.7% 97%  
364 1.4% 96%  
365 2% 95%  
366 1.2% 93%  
367 2% 92%  
368 3% 89%  
369 2% 87%  
370 3% 85%  
371 4% 82%  
372 4% 79%  
373 3% 74%  
374 4% 71%  
375 7% 67%  
376 3% 60%  
377 4% 57%  
378 4% 52% Median
379 5% 48%  
380 4% 43%  
381 5% 39%  
382 5% 34%  
383 3% 28%  
384 4% 25%  
385 3% 22%  
386 4% 19%  
387 3% 15%  
388 2% 13%  
389 3% 11%  
390 1.2% 8%  
391 2% 7%  
392 1.2% 5%  
393 0.9% 4%  
394 0.9% 3%  
395 0.6% 2%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.3% 1.3%  
398 0.3% 0.9%  
399 0.2% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0.3% 99.5%  
327 0.3% 99.1%  
328 0.5% 98.8%  
329 0.4% 98%  
330 0.7% 98%  
331 1.0% 97%  
332 0.7% 96%  
333 1.4% 95%  
334 1.2% 94%  
335 3% 93%  
336 1.5% 90%  
337 3% 88%  
338 2% 86%  
339 2% 83%  
340 3% 81%  
341 3% 78%  
342 3% 75%  
343 5% 72%  
344 4% 67%  
345 6% 63%  
346 6% 57% Median
347 4% 51%  
348 5% 47%  
349 3% 43%  
350 5% 39%  
351 4% 34%  
352 4% 31%  
353 4% 26%  
354 5% 22%  
355 4% 18% Majority
356 2% 14%  
357 2% 12%  
358 2% 9%  
359 1.5% 8%  
360 0.9% 6%  
361 1.2% 5%  
362 0.7% 4%  
363 1.0% 3%  
364 0.6% 2%  
365 0.5% 2%  
366 0.3% 1.2%  
367 0.3% 0.8%  
368 0.1% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0.2% 99.6%  
325 0.2% 99.5%  
326 0.2% 99.3%  
327 0.3% 99.1%  
328 0.4% 98.8%  
329 0.4% 98%  
330 0.5% 98%  
331 0.6% 97%  
332 0.9% 97%  
333 0.9% 96%  
334 1.3% 95%  
335 2% 94%  
336 2% 92%  
337 2% 90%  
338 2% 88%  
339 2% 87%  
340 4% 84%  
341 3% 80%  
342 4% 77%  
343 4% 73%  
344 5% 70%  
345 4% 65%  
346 3% 61%  
347 5% 58%  
348 4% 52% Median
349 5% 48%  
350 3% 43%  
351 5% 40%  
352 4% 35%  
353 4% 31%  
354 5% 27%  
355 4% 22% Majority
356 4% 19%  
357 2% 14%  
358 3% 12%  
359 2% 9%  
360 2% 7%  
361 1.2% 5%  
362 0.9% 4%  
363 0.8% 3%  
364 0.6% 2%  
365 0.4% 1.5%  
366 0.3% 1.1%  
367 0.2% 0.8%  
368 0.2% 0.6%  
369 0.2% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.2% 99.7%  
295 0.2% 99.5%  
296 0.2% 99.3%  
297 0.4% 99.1%  
298 0.4% 98.7%  
299 0.6% 98%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 1.0% 97%  
302 1.2% 96%  
303 1.4% 95%  
304 2% 94%  
305 2% 92%  
306 3% 90%  
307 2% 87%  
308 3% 85%  
309 3% 82%  
310 4% 79%  
311 4% 76%  
312 4% 72%  
313 5% 68%  
314 3% 63%  
315 6% 59%  
316 4% 54% Median
317 6% 50%  
318 4% 44%  
319 5% 40%  
320 4% 35%  
321 4% 31%  
322 5% 26%  
323 2% 22%  
324 4% 19%  
325 2% 16%  
326 2% 13%  
327 3% 11%  
328 2% 9%  
329 1.4% 7%  
330 1.2% 5%  
331 1.0% 4%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.6% 3%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.3% 1.5%  
336 0.5% 1.2%  
337 0.1% 0.8%  
338 0.3% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.3% 99.7%  
296 0.5% 99.4%  
297 0.2% 98.9%  
298 0.2% 98.7%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 1.0% 98%  
301 1.4% 97%  
302 0.9% 96%  
303 0.5% 95%  
304 1.2% 94%  
305 4% 93%  
306 2% 89%  
307 1.4% 87%  
308 1.2% 86%  
309 4% 85%  
310 7% 81%  
311 6% 75%  
312 3% 69%  
313 1.0% 66%  
314 5% 65%  
315 9% 60%  
316 6% 51% Median
317 2% 45%  
318 2% 43%  
319 5% 41%  
320 8% 36%  
321 3% 28%  
322 2% 25%  
323 1.3% 23%  
324 5% 22%  
325 4% 17%  
326 3% 12% Last Result
327 0.3% 9%  
328 0.8% 9%  
329 2% 8%  
330 2% 6%  
331 0.9% 4%  
332 0.3% 3%  
333 0.4% 3%  
334 0.9% 2%  
335 0.5% 1.4%  
336 0.2% 0.9%  
337 0% 0.7%  
338 0.2% 0.6%  
339 0.2% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.2% 99.6%  
288 0.2% 99.4%  
289 0.3% 99.2%  
290 0.4% 98.9%  
291 0.4% 98%  
292 0.8% 98%  
293 1.1% 97%  
294 0.9% 96%  
295 1.4% 95%  
296 1.5% 94%  
297 1.3% 92%  
298 2% 91%  
299 4% 89%  
300 2% 86%  
301 4% 83%  
302 6% 79%  
303 4% 74%  
304 3% 70%  
305 5% 67%  
306 4% 62%  
307 5% 58%  
308 5% 53%  
309 6% 48% Median
310 4% 43%  
311 5% 39%  
312 5% 34%  
313 3% 29%  
314 3% 26%  
315 3% 22%  
316 3% 20%  
317 3% 17%  
318 3% 14%  
319 2% 11%  
320 2% 9%  
321 1.3% 7%  
322 0.9% 5%  
323 0.8% 5%  
324 0.9% 4%  
325 0.6% 3%  
326 0.6% 2%  
327 0.7% 2%  
328 0.3% 1.0%  
329 0.2% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.5%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.3% 99.7%  
242 0% 99.4%  
243 0.2% 99.3%  
244 0.8% 99.2%  
245 0.4% 98%  
246 0.1% 98%  
247 0.9% 98%  
248 2% 97%  
249 0.4% 95%  
250 0.7% 94%  
251 4% 94%  
252 2% 89%  
253 0.4% 88%  
254 3% 87%  
255 6% 84%  
256 2% 78%  
257 0.6% 76%  
258 7% 76%  
259 7% 69%  
260 0.5% 62%  
261 7% 61%  
262 7% 54% Median
263 4% 48%  
264 1.1% 44%  
265 8% 43%  
266 6% 35%  
267 0.6% 28%  
268 3% 28%  
269 7% 25%  
270 2% 17%  
271 0.7% 15%  
272 3% 15%  
273 4% 11%  
274 0.3% 8%  
275 1.1% 7%  
276 2% 6%  
277 0.7% 4%  
278 0.2% 3%  
279 0.8% 3%  
280 0.9% 2%  
281 0.1% 1.0%  
282 0.1% 0.9%  
283 0.4% 0.8%  
284 0.1% 0.4%  
285 0% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.8%  
181 0.2% 99.7%  
182 0.2% 99.5%  
183 0.4% 99.3%  
184 0.4% 98.9%  
185 0.6% 98%  
186 0.9% 98%  
187 1.0% 97%  
188 1.5% 96%  
189 2% 95%  
190 2% 93%  
191 2% 91%  
192 3% 89%  
193 2% 85%  
194 4% 83%  
195 5% 79%  
196 3% 74%  
197 5% 71%  
198 5% 66%  
199 6% 61%  
200 4% 55% Median
201 6% 51%  
202 5% 45%  
203 4% 40%  
204 5% 36%  
205 5% 31%  
206 5% 26%  
207 3% 21%  
208 3% 18%  
209 3% 15%  
210 3% 12%  
211 2% 9%  
212 2% 7%  
213 1.4% 6%  
214 1.0% 4%  
215 1.0% 3%  
216 0.7% 2%  
217 0.4% 2%  
218 0.4% 1.3%  
219 0.3% 0.9%  
220 0.2% 0.6%  
221 0.1% 0.4%  
222 0.1% 0.3%  
223 0.1% 0.2%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0.1% 99.6%  
152 0.1% 99.4%  
153 0.1% 99.3%  
154 0.1% 99.2%  
155 0.1% 99.2%  
156 0.4% 99.0%  
157 0.8% 98.6%  
158 2% 98%  
159 3% 95%  
160 4% 92%  
161 5% 88%  
162 4% 83%  
163 3% 79%  
164 2% 76%  
165 0.7% 74%  
166 0.7% 74%  
167 1.2% 73%  
168 3% 72%  
169 6% 69%  
170 9% 63% Median
171 11% 54%  
172 11% 43%  
173 10% 32%  
174 5% 22%  
175 3% 17%  
176 1.0% 14%  
177 0.4% 13%  
178 0.4% 13%  
179 0.9% 13%  
180 1.4% 12%  
181 2% 10%  
182 3% 8%  
183 2% 6%  
184 1.4% 3%  
185 1.1% 2%  
186 0.4% 0.8%  
187 0.1% 0.5%  
188 0% 0.3%  
189 0% 0.3%  
190 0% 0.3%  
191 0% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0.1% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations