Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 2–5 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 23.0% 21.8–24.2% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.5% 15.5–17.6% 15.2–17.9% 14.9–18.2% 14.5–18.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.1–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 176 166–184 164–187 162–190 158–193
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 137 129–145 127–148 125–150 121–154
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 126 118–134 116–136 114–138 110–142
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 95 88–102 86–104 85–106 82–110
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 70–83 68–85 67–87 64–90
Die Linke 69 54 48–59 47–61 45–62 43–65
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 45 41–51 39–52 39–54 36–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.1% 99.7%  
158 0.2% 99.5%  
159 0.3% 99.4%  
160 0.5% 99.1%  
161 0.8% 98.6%  
162 1.1% 98%  
163 1.3% 97%  
164 2% 95%  
165 3% 93%  
166 3% 90%  
167 3% 87%  
168 3% 84%  
169 3% 81%  
170 2% 78%  
171 4% 76%  
172 4% 72%  
173 4% 68%  
174 6% 64%  
175 7% 58%  
176 7% 51% Median
177 8% 43%  
178 7% 35%  
179 5% 28%  
180 4% 23%  
181 4% 19%  
182 2% 15%  
183 2% 13%  
184 2% 11%  
185 1.2% 9%  
186 2% 8%  
187 2% 6%  
188 0.9% 5%  
189 1.0% 4%  
190 1.1% 3%  
191 0.5% 2%  
192 0.4% 1.0%  
193 0.3% 0.6%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.3% 99.7%  
122 0.2% 99.4%  
123 0.8% 99.2%  
124 0.3% 98%  
125 2% 98%  
126 0.9% 96%  
127 3% 96%  
128 1.0% 93%  
129 5% 92%  
130 2% 87%  
131 5% 85%  
132 3% 80%  
133 7% 77%  
134 4% 70%  
135 6% 66%  
136 6% 60%  
137 7% 54% Median
138 6% 47%  
139 4% 41%  
140 9% 36%  
141 3% 28%  
142 6% 25%  
143 2% 18%  
144 6% 17%  
145 1.0% 11%  
146 3% 10%  
147 0.8% 6%  
148 2% 6%  
149 0.5% 4%  
150 1.3% 3%  
151 0.4% 2%  
152 0.6% 1.5%  
153 0.2% 0.9%  
154 0.2% 0.6%  
155 0.1% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.2% 99.7%  
111 0.4% 99.4%  
112 0.5% 99.0%  
113 0.8% 98.5%  
114 1.1% 98%  
115 1.4% 97%  
116 2% 95%  
117 2% 93%  
118 2% 91%  
119 5% 89%  
120 5% 84%  
121 6% 79%  
122 5% 74%  
123 6% 69%  
124 6% 63%  
125 6% 56%  
126 7% 51% Median
127 8% 44%  
128 6% 36%  
129 5% 30%  
130 5% 25%  
131 4% 21%  
132 3% 17%  
133 3% 13%  
134 3% 11%  
135 2% 8%  
136 1.4% 5%  
137 1.0% 4%  
138 0.8% 3%  
139 0.6% 2%  
140 0.6% 2%  
141 0.4% 1.1%  
142 0.3% 0.7%  
143 0.2% 0.4%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.5%  
83 0.7% 99.2%  
84 0.9% 98.6%  
85 1.2% 98%  
86 2% 96%  
87 2% 95%  
88 3% 93%  
89 4% 90%  
90 5% 86%  
91 6% 81%  
92 6% 75%  
93 6% 69%  
94 8% 63%  
95 8% 55% Median
96 6% 48%  
97 8% 41%  
98 6% 34%  
99 6% 28%  
100 3% 22%  
101 5% 18%  
102 4% 13%  
103 3% 9%  
104 2% 7%  
105 1.4% 5%  
106 1.1% 4%  
107 0.8% 2%  
108 0.6% 2%  
109 0.4% 1.0%  
110 0.2% 0.6%  
111 0.1% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 0.5% 99.3%  
66 0.8% 98.8%  
67 1.4% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 2% 95%  
70 4% 92%  
71 5% 88%  
72 5% 83%  
73 6% 78%  
74 8% 72%  
75 9% 65%  
76 7% 56% Median
77 7% 49%  
78 8% 42%  
79 7% 34%  
80 5% 27%  
81 5% 21%  
82 5% 16%  
83 3% 11%  
84 2% 8%  
85 2% 6%  
86 1.4% 4%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.1%  
90 0.2% 0.6%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.7%  
44 0.7% 99.3%  
45 1.2% 98.6%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 96%  
48 4% 93%  
49 5% 89%  
50 7% 83%  
51 8% 77%  
52 8% 68%  
53 9% 60%  
54 9% 51% Median
55 9% 42%  
56 8% 33%  
57 6% 25%  
58 5% 19%  
59 5% 13%  
60 3% 9%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.5% 4%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.4%  
65 0.4% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 0.7% 99.3%  
38 1.0% 98.6%  
39 3% 98%  
40 3% 95%  
41 4% 92%  
42 10% 87%  
43 6% 77%  
44 11% 71%  
45 11% 60% Median
46 5% 49% Last Result
47 11% 43%  
48 7% 33%  
49 7% 25%  
50 7% 19%  
51 3% 12%  
52 4% 8%  
53 2% 5%  
54 0.9% 3%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 0.5% 1.1%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 484 100% 474–493 471–496 469–498 464–503
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 453 100% 443–463 440–466 438–468 433–473
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 442 100% 432–452 429–455 426–457 422–462
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 393 100% 382–403 380–406 377–409 372–414
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 358 67% 348–368 345–371 342–374 337–379
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 358 66% 347–368 345–371 342–374 337–379
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 346 16% 336–357 333–360 331–363 326–367
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 316 0% 306–327 303–330 301–332 296–337
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 316 0% 306–327 303–329 300–332 295–337
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 297 0% 287–307 285–311 281–314 277–318
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 263 0% 253–273 250–275 247–278 243–283
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 221 0% 211–230 209–233 206–236 202–240
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 171–188 168–191 166–193 162–198

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
458 0% 100%  
459 0% 99.9%  
460 0.1% 99.9%  
461 0.1% 99.9%  
462 0.1% 99.8%  
463 0.1% 99.7%  
464 0.2% 99.6%  
465 0.4% 99.4%  
466 0.2% 99.0% Last Result
467 0.4% 98.8%  
468 0.8% 98%  
469 0.9% 98%  
470 0.9% 97%  
471 1.3% 96%  
472 1.4% 94%  
473 2% 93%  
474 3% 91%  
475 2% 88%  
476 4% 86%  
477 4% 82%  
478 3% 78%  
479 4% 75%  
480 4% 71%  
481 6% 67%  
482 5% 61%  
483 5% 56%  
484 6% 51% Median
485 5% 45%  
486 5% 40%  
487 5% 35%  
488 5% 30%  
489 5% 26%  
490 3% 21%  
491 3% 17%  
492 3% 15%  
493 2% 11%  
494 2% 9%  
495 1.4% 7%  
496 2% 6%  
497 1.3% 4%  
498 0.6% 3%  
499 0.6% 2%  
500 0.5% 2%  
501 0.4% 1.2%  
502 0.2% 0.8%  
503 0.2% 0.5%  
504 0.1% 0.4%  
505 0.1% 0.2%  
506 0.1% 0.2%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0.1% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.8%  
432 0.2% 99.7%  
433 0.2% 99.6%  
434 0.3% 99.4%  
435 0.2% 99.1%  
436 0.4% 98.9%  
437 0.5% 98%  
438 0.8% 98%  
439 0.7% 97%  
440 2% 96%  
441 1.2% 95%  
442 2% 94%  
443 2% 91%  
444 1.3% 89%  
445 4% 88%  
446 3% 84%  
447 3% 81%  
448 5% 78%  
449 3% 73%  
450 5% 69%  
451 5% 64%  
452 4% 59%  
453 6% 55% Median
454 5% 50%  
455 5% 44%  
456 5% 39%  
457 5% 34%  
458 4% 29%  
459 5% 25%  
460 2% 21%  
461 4% 18%  
462 3% 15%  
463 3% 12%  
464 2% 9%  
465 2% 7%  
466 1.3% 5%  
467 0.9% 4%  
468 0.8% 3%  
469 0.7% 2%  
470 0.4% 2%  
471 0.5% 1.4%  
472 0.3% 0.9%  
473 0.2% 0.6%  
474 0.1% 0.4%  
475 0.1% 0.3%  
476 0% 0.2%  
477 0.1% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.9%  
420 0.1% 99.8%  
421 0.1% 99.7%  
422 0.2% 99.5%  
423 0.3% 99.3%  
424 0.5% 99.1%  
425 0.5% 98.6%  
426 0.6% 98%  
427 1.0% 97%  
428 1.2% 96%  
429 1.0% 95%  
430 1.5% 94%  
431 2% 93%  
432 2% 90%  
433 2% 88%  
434 4% 86%  
435 3% 82%  
436 5% 79%  
437 5% 74%  
438 4% 70%  
439 5% 66%  
440 5% 61%  
441 4% 56%  
442 5% 52% Median
443 6% 47%  
444 5% 41%  
445 3% 36%  
446 6% 33%  
447 4% 27%  
448 2% 23%  
449 5% 21%  
450 2% 16%  
451 4% 14%  
452 2% 11%  
453 2% 9%  
454 2% 7%  
455 1.3% 5%  
456 0.9% 4%  
457 0.7% 3%  
458 0.8% 2%  
459 0.3% 2%  
460 0.4% 1.3%  
461 0.3% 0.9%  
462 0.1% 0.6%  
463 0.1% 0.4%  
464 0.2% 0.3%  
465 0% 0.2%  
466 0.1% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0.2% 99.6%  
373 0.3% 99.4%  
374 0.3% 99.1%  
375 0.5% 98.8%  
376 0.5% 98%  
377 0.8% 98%  
378 0.9% 97%  
379 1.1% 96%  
380 1.0% 95%  
381 2% 94%  
382 3% 92%  
383 2% 89%  
384 3% 87%  
385 3% 84%  
386 3% 82%  
387 5% 79%  
388 5% 74%  
389 3% 68%  
390 5% 65%  
391 4% 60%  
392 5% 57% Median
393 6% 52%  
394 5% 46%  
395 5% 41%  
396 4% 36%  
397 4% 32%  
398 4% 28%  
399 4% 24%  
400 3% 20%  
401 4% 17%  
402 3% 14%  
403 3% 11%  
404 1.4% 8%  
405 1.3% 7%  
406 1.1% 6%  
407 1.3% 4%  
408 0.7% 3%  
409 0.7% 3%  
410 0.5% 2%  
411 0.3% 1.3%  
412 0.2% 1.0%  
413 0.2% 0.7%  
414 0.2% 0.5%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.2% 99.6%  
338 0.2% 99.4%  
339 0.3% 99.2%  
340 0.5% 98.9%  
341 0.4% 98%  
342 0.8% 98%  
343 0.9% 97%  
344 0.9% 96%  
345 2% 95%  
346 1.3% 94%  
347 2% 92%  
348 2% 90%  
349 3% 88%  
350 2% 84%  
351 3% 82%  
352 5% 79%  
353 4% 75%  
354 4% 71%  
355 4% 67% Majority
356 5% 63%  
357 5% 58%  
358 5% 53% Median
359 5% 48%  
360 4% 42%  
361 4% 39%  
362 6% 34%  
363 4% 28%  
364 4% 25%  
365 4% 21%  
366 3% 17%  
367 2% 14%  
368 2% 12%  
369 2% 10%  
370 2% 8%  
371 1.4% 6%  
372 1.1% 5%  
373 0.8% 3%  
374 0.6% 3%  
375 0.5% 2%  
376 0.4% 2%  
377 0.3% 1.2%  
378 0.2% 0.8%  
379 0.2% 0.6%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.2% 99.6%  
338 0.3% 99.5%  
339 0.4% 99.2%  
340 0.4% 98.8%  
341 0.5% 98%  
342 1.0% 98%  
343 0.8% 97%  
344 1.1% 96%  
345 2% 95%  
346 1.4% 94%  
347 2% 92%  
348 2% 90%  
349 3% 88%  
350 3% 85%  
351 3% 82%  
352 4% 79%  
353 4% 75%  
354 5% 71%  
355 4% 66% Majority
356 4% 62%  
357 6% 58%  
358 4% 52% Median
359 5% 48%  
360 4% 43%  
361 7% 39%  
362 3% 33%  
363 5% 30%  
364 4% 25%  
365 3% 21%  
366 3% 18%  
367 2% 15%  
368 3% 12%  
369 2% 9%  
370 1.3% 8%  
371 2% 6%  
372 1.0% 5%  
373 0.8% 4%  
374 0.8% 3%  
375 0.5% 2%  
376 0.5% 2%  
377 0.2% 1.1%  
378 0.3% 0.8%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.2% 99.6%  
327 0.4% 99.4%  
328 0.3% 99.0%  
329 0.5% 98.8%  
330 0.7% 98%  
331 0.7% 98%  
332 0.9% 97%  
333 1.4% 96%  
334 2% 95%  
335 2% 93%  
336 2% 91%  
337 2% 89%  
338 3% 87%  
339 3% 84%  
340 4% 81%  
341 5% 77%  
342 4% 72%  
343 4% 69%  
344 4% 64%  
345 4% 60%  
346 7% 57%  
347 6% 50% Median
348 4% 44%  
349 5% 40%  
350 4% 35%  
351 4% 31%  
352 5% 27%  
353 3% 22%  
354 4% 19%  
355 3% 16% Majority
356 2% 13%  
357 2% 11%  
358 2% 9%  
359 1.3% 7%  
360 1.1% 6%  
361 1.0% 4%  
362 0.8% 3%  
363 0.8% 3%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.4% 1.4%  
366 0.3% 1.0%  
367 0.2% 0.7%  
368 0.1% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.6%  
297 0.3% 99.3%  
298 0.4% 99.1%  
299 0.5% 98.7%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 1.1% 98%  
302 0.9% 97%  
303 1.2% 96%  
304 2% 94%  
305 1.4% 93%  
306 3% 91%  
307 2% 89%  
308 3% 86%  
309 4% 83%  
310 3% 79%  
311 4% 76%  
312 4% 72%  
313 5% 68%  
314 5% 63%  
315 3% 58%  
316 6% 55% Median
317 5% 49%  
318 4% 44%  
319 6% 39%  
320 5% 34%  
321 3% 29%  
322 5% 26%  
323 2% 21%  
324 4% 19%  
325 2% 15%  
326 3% 13% Last Result
327 2% 10%  
328 1.3% 8%  
329 2% 7%  
330 1.1% 5%  
331 0.9% 4%  
332 0.8% 3%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.4% 1.3%  
336 0.3% 0.9%  
337 0.2% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.2% 99.6%  
296 0.2% 99.5%  
297 0.2% 99.3%  
298 0.3% 99.0%  
299 0.5% 98.7%  
300 0.7% 98%  
301 0.7% 97%  
302 1.3% 97%  
303 1.1% 96%  
304 1.3% 94%  
305 1.4% 93%  
306 3% 92%  
307 3% 89%  
308 4% 86%  
309 3% 83%  
310 4% 80%  
311 4% 76%  
312 4% 72%  
313 4% 68%  
314 5% 64%  
315 5% 59%  
316 6% 54%  
317 5% 48% Median
318 4% 43%  
319 5% 40%  
320 3% 35%  
321 5% 32%  
322 5% 26%  
323 3% 21%  
324 3% 18%  
325 3% 16%  
326 2% 13%  
327 3% 11%  
328 2% 8%  
329 1.0% 6%  
330 1.1% 5%  
331 0.9% 4%  
332 0.8% 3%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.3% 1.2%  
336 0.3% 0.9%  
337 0.2% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.2% 99.6%  
278 0.2% 99.4%  
279 0.2% 99.1%  
280 0.6% 98.9%  
281 0.8% 98%  
282 0.7% 97%  
283 0.6% 97%  
284 1.0% 96%  
285 2% 95%  
286 2% 93%  
287 1.0% 91%  
288 2% 90%  
289 4% 87%  
290 3% 84%  
291 2% 80%  
292 4% 79%  
293 7% 74%  
294 7% 67%  
295 2% 60%  
296 3% 58%  
297 5% 55% Median
298 8% 50%  
299 3% 42%  
300 2% 39%  
301 5% 36%  
302 7% 32%  
303 3% 25%  
304 2% 22%  
305 3% 20%  
306 6% 17%  
307 3% 12%  
308 0.9% 9%  
309 1.0% 8%  
310 2% 7%  
311 1.5% 5%  
312 0.5% 4%  
313 0.5% 3%  
314 1.1% 3%  
315 0.6% 2%  
316 0.2% 1.0%  
317 0.1% 0.8%  
318 0.2% 0.7%  
319 0.2% 0.5%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0.1% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.2% 99.6%  
244 0.3% 99.3%  
245 0.3% 99.1%  
246 0.5% 98.7%  
247 0.9% 98%  
248 0.8% 97%  
249 1.0% 97%  
250 1.1% 96%  
251 2% 95%  
252 2% 93%  
253 2% 90%  
254 4% 88%  
255 3% 84%  
256 3% 81%  
257 4% 78%  
258 6% 75%  
259 4% 69%  
260 4% 65%  
261 5% 61%  
262 5% 56%  
263 6% 52% Median
264 6% 46%  
265 5% 40%  
266 3% 34%  
267 4% 31%  
268 3% 27%  
269 4% 23%  
270 3% 20%  
271 3% 16%  
272 3% 13%  
273 2% 10%  
274 2% 8%  
275 2% 7%  
276 1.2% 5%  
277 0.7% 4%  
278 0.6% 3%  
279 0.4% 2%  
280 0.6% 2%  
281 0.3% 1.1%  
282 0.3% 0.9%  
283 0.1% 0.6%  
284 0.1% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0.1% 99.9%  
200 0.2% 99.8%  
201 0.1% 99.7%  
202 0.2% 99.5%  
203 0.3% 99.4%  
204 0.3% 99.1%  
205 0.4% 98.8%  
206 0.9% 98%  
207 1.1% 97%  
208 1.2% 96%  
209 2% 95%  
210 2% 93%  
211 2% 91%  
212 2% 89%  
213 3% 86%  
214 3% 83%  
215 3% 81%  
216 5% 78%  
217 7% 73%  
218 4% 66%  
219 6% 62%  
220 6% 56%  
221 7% 51% Median
222 4% 44%  
223 4% 40%  
224 4% 36%  
225 4% 32%  
226 3% 28%  
227 4% 25%  
228 6% 21%  
229 3% 15%  
230 3% 13%  
231 3% 10%  
232 2% 7%  
233 1.2% 6% Last Result
234 0.9% 4%  
235 0.8% 4%  
236 0.5% 3%  
237 0.7% 2%  
238 0.4% 2%  
239 0.4% 1.2%  
240 0.3% 0.8%  
241 0.2% 0.5%  
242 0.1% 0.3%  
243 0.1% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.2% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.6%  
162 0.3% 99.5%  
163 0.4% 99.2%  
164 0.3% 98.8%  
165 0.9% 98%  
166 0.9% 98%  
167 0.8% 97%  
168 2% 96%  
169 2% 94%  
170 2% 92%  
171 5% 90%  
172 2% 85%  
173 4% 84%  
174 5% 79%  
175 3% 74%  
176 7% 72%  
177 6% 65%  
178 4% 59%  
179 9% 55%  
180 3% 46% Median
181 4% 42%  
182 7% 38%  
183 3% 31%  
184 4% 28%  
185 5% 24%  
186 3% 19%  
187 4% 15%  
188 3% 11%  
189 2% 9%  
190 2% 7%  
191 0.9% 5%  
192 1.0% 4%  
193 1.2% 3%  
194 0.5% 2%  
195 0.5% 2%  
196 0.4% 1.1%  
197 0.2% 0.8%  
198 0.2% 0.6%  
199 0.1% 0.4%  
200 0.1% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations