Opinion Poll by Kantar, 29 June–6 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 23.6% 22.1–25.1% 21.7–25.5% 21.4–25.8% 20.7–26.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.7–20.4% 17.3–20.8% 17.0–21.1% 16.4–21.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.3% 13.5–16.7% 13.2–17.0% 12.7–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.5–12.8% 9.0–13.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.0% 10.0–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.5–12.8% 9.0–13.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.4% 4.7–6.3% 4.5–6.5% 4.3–6.7% 4.0–7.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 179 168–190 165–194 163–196 158–202
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 143 135–155 132–157 129–161 125–165
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 105–123 103–126 101–129 97–134
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 76–93 74–95 72–97 69–101
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 84 76–92 74–94 72–97 69–101
Die Linke 69 61 54–66 51–70 50–73 47–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 36–47 34–49 33–51 31–54

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.1% 99.7%  
158 0.2% 99.6%  
159 0.2% 99.4%  
160 0.4% 99.1%  
161 0.4% 98.7%  
162 0.6% 98%  
163 0.8% 98%  
164 1.0% 97%  
165 1.2% 96%  
166 1.3% 95%  
167 2% 93%  
168 2% 92%  
169 2% 90%  
170 2% 87%  
171 3% 85%  
172 4% 82%  
173 3% 78%  
174 4% 75%  
175 4% 71%  
176 4% 67%  
177 4% 63%  
178 6% 59%  
179 5% 53% Median
180 4% 48%  
181 3% 44%  
182 5% 41%  
183 5% 36%  
184 3% 31%  
185 4% 28%  
186 4% 24%  
187 4% 20%  
188 3% 16%  
189 3% 14%  
190 1.5% 11%  
191 2% 10%  
192 1.1% 8%  
193 2% 7%  
194 1.2% 5%  
195 0.8% 4%  
196 0.7% 3%  
197 0.6% 2%  
198 0.3% 2%  
199 0.3% 1.3%  
200 0.3% 1.0% Last Result
201 0.2% 0.7%  
202 0.2% 0.5%  
203 0.1% 0.4%  
204 0.1% 0.2%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.6%  
125 0.2% 99.5%  
126 0.2% 99.4%  
127 0.3% 99.2%  
128 0.5% 98.9%  
129 0.9% 98%  
130 0.8% 97%  
131 1.2% 97%  
132 1.1% 95%  
133 1.2% 94%  
134 2% 93%  
135 3% 91%  
136 3% 88%  
137 4% 85%  
138 3% 81%  
139 3% 78%  
140 4% 75%  
141 5% 71%  
142 8% 66%  
143 9% 58% Median
144 5% 49%  
145 4% 44%  
146 3% 40%  
147 4% 37%  
148 4% 33%  
149 6% 29%  
150 3% 24%  
151 3% 20%  
152 3% 18%  
153 2% 15%  
154 2% 13%  
155 3% 11%  
156 2% 9%  
157 2% 7%  
158 1.1% 5%  
159 0.5% 4%  
160 0.5% 3%  
161 0.5% 3%  
162 0.7% 2%  
163 0.7% 2%  
164 0.3% 0.9%  
165 0.2% 0.6%  
166 0.1% 0.4%  
167 0.1% 0.3%  
168 0.1% 0.2%  
169 0.1% 0.2%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.2% 99.5%  
98 0.4% 99.3%  
99 0.4% 98.9%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 1.0% 98%  
102 1.3% 97%  
103 1.5% 95%  
104 1.4% 94%  
105 3% 92%  
106 3% 90%  
107 3% 87%  
108 5% 84%  
109 4% 79%  
110 5% 75%  
111 7% 70%  
112 5% 63%  
113 6% 58%  
114 5% 52% Median
115 4% 47%  
116 5% 43%  
117 5% 37%  
118 5% 33%  
119 4% 27%  
120 4% 23%  
121 4% 19%  
122 3% 15%  
123 2% 12%  
124 2% 10%  
125 2% 8%  
126 1.4% 6%  
127 1.0% 4%  
128 0.8% 3%  
129 0.7% 3%  
130 0.5% 2%  
131 0.4% 1.3%  
132 0.2% 1.0%  
133 0.2% 0.7%  
134 0.2% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.5%  
70 0.3% 99.2%  
71 0.8% 98.9%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 1.2% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 94%  
76 2% 92%  
77 4% 89%  
78 3% 85%  
79 5% 82%  
80 6% 77%  
81 4% 71%  
82 7% 67%  
83 7% 60%  
84 4% 53% Median
85 8% 49%  
86 6% 41%  
87 5% 35%  
88 7% 31%  
89 3% 24%  
90 4% 21%  
91 4% 17%  
92 2% 12%  
93 3% 10%  
94 2% 7% Last Result
95 0.9% 5%  
96 1.3% 4%  
97 0.9% 3%  
98 0.5% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.5%  
100 0.2% 0.9%  
101 0.2% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.6%  
70 0.4% 99.2%  
71 0.5% 98.7%  
72 0.8% 98%  
73 1.4% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 94%  
76 3% 91%  
77 3% 89%  
78 4% 86%  
79 6% 81%  
80 6% 76% Last Result
81 4% 70%  
82 5% 66%  
83 8% 60%  
84 7% 53% Median
85 7% 46%  
86 5% 39%  
87 5% 35%  
88 5% 29%  
89 5% 24%  
90 4% 19%  
91 3% 15%  
92 3% 12%  
93 3% 10%  
94 2% 7%  
95 1.2% 5%  
96 0.9% 4%  
97 0.8% 3%  
98 0.6% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.5%  
100 0.3% 0.9%  
101 0.2% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 0.4% 99.4%  
49 0.8% 99.0%  
50 2% 98%  
51 1.4% 96%  
52 1.0% 95%  
53 3% 94%  
54 2% 91%  
55 2% 89%  
56 2% 87%  
57 4% 86%  
58 8% 81%  
59 6% 74%  
60 6% 67%  
61 13% 61% Median
62 14% 49%  
63 6% 35%  
64 6% 29%  
65 9% 22%  
66 3% 13%  
67 1.2% 10%  
68 2% 9%  
69 1.5% 7% Last Result
70 1.1% 6%  
71 0.6% 5%  
72 0.9% 4%  
73 1.2% 3%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.3% 1.2%  
76 0.5% 0.9%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.8%  
31 0.6% 99.6%  
32 0.8% 99.0%  
33 1.2% 98%  
34 2% 97%  
35 3% 95%  
36 5% 91%  
37 6% 87%  
38 6% 81%  
39 8% 74%  
40 8% 67%  
41 10% 58% Median
42 9% 49%  
43 7% 40%  
44 7% 33%  
45 6% 26%  
46 5% 19% Last Result
47 4% 14%  
48 3% 10%  
49 2% 7%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.1% 3%  
52 0.8% 2%  
53 0.5% 1.3%  
54 0.3% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 480 100% 468–491 465–494 461–497 456–503
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 449 100% 437–461 434–465 431–468 425–473
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 420 100% 407–431 403–434 400–437 394–444
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 389 100% 377–401 373–405 370–408 364–414
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 365 86% 353–378 350–382 346–384 340–390
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 343 11% 331–355 327–359 324–362 318–369
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 335 2% 323–348 318–351 316–354 310–360
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 320 0% 308–332 304–336 301–339 295–345
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 305 0% 293–317 289–321 286–324 280–330
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 305 0% 292–317 289–321 286–324 280–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 258 0% 247–271 244–274 241–277 235–283
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 198 0% 187–209 185–213 182–216 177–222
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 165–186 162–189 159–192 154–197

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
449 0% 100%  
450 0% 99.9%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0.1% 99.9%  
453 0.1% 99.8%  
454 0.1% 99.8%  
455 0.2% 99.7%  
456 0.1% 99.5%  
457 0.3% 99.4%  
458 0.3% 99.1%  
459 0.2% 98.8%  
460 0.5% 98.6%  
461 0.6% 98%  
462 0.5% 97%  
463 0.8% 97%  
464 0.9% 96%  
465 1.2% 95%  
466 2% 94% Last Result
467 2% 92%  
468 2% 91%  
469 3% 89%  
470 2% 86%  
471 3% 84%  
472 3% 81%  
473 2% 78%  
474 4% 75%  
475 4% 71%  
476 4% 67%  
477 6% 64% Median
478 2% 58%  
479 5% 56%  
480 4% 50%  
481 3% 46%  
482 6% 42%  
483 3% 37%  
484 3% 33%  
485 4% 30%  
486 4% 26%  
487 2% 22%  
488 3% 20%  
489 3% 16%  
490 3% 14%  
491 2% 11%  
492 1.4% 9%  
493 2% 8%  
494 1.0% 6%  
495 0.8% 5%  
496 1.3% 4%  
497 0.5% 3%  
498 0.6% 2%  
499 0.6% 2%  
500 0.3% 1.3%  
501 0.2% 1.0%  
502 0.2% 0.7%  
503 0.1% 0.5%  
504 0.1% 0.4%  
505 0.1% 0.3%  
506 0% 0.2%  
507 0.1% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.8%  
424 0.1% 99.7%  
425 0.1% 99.5%  
426 0.2% 99.4%  
427 0.3% 99.2%  
428 0.3% 98.9%  
429 0.5% 98.6%  
430 0.5% 98%  
431 0.5% 98%  
432 0.8% 97%  
433 0.9% 96%  
434 1.2% 95%  
435 1.2% 94%  
436 2% 93%  
437 1.4% 91%  
438 2% 90%  
439 2% 88%  
440 3% 86%  
441 4% 83%  
442 2% 79%  
443 4% 77%  
444 3% 73%  
445 4% 70%  
446 5% 66%  
447 3% 62% Median
448 4% 58%  
449 5% 54%  
450 4% 49%  
451 4% 45%  
452 4% 41%  
453 5% 38%  
454 4% 33%  
455 3% 29%  
456 3% 26%  
457 3% 23%  
458 3% 19%  
459 3% 17%  
460 1.5% 13%  
461 2% 12%  
462 2% 10%  
463 2% 8%  
464 1.2% 6%  
465 1.0% 5%  
466 0.8% 4%  
467 0.7% 3%  
468 0.4% 3%  
469 0.6% 2%  
470 0.4% 2%  
471 0.3% 1.1%  
472 0.2% 0.8%  
473 0.2% 0.6%  
474 0.1% 0.4%  
475 0.1% 0.3%  
476 0.1% 0.2%  
477 0.1% 0.2%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.1% 99.7%  
394 0.2% 99.6%  
395 0.1% 99.5%  
396 0.3% 99.3%  
397 0.3% 99.1%  
398 0.4% 98.7%  
399 0.4% 98%  
400 0.5% 98%  
401 0.9% 97%  
402 0.7% 97%  
403 1.1% 96%  
404 1.3% 95%  
405 1.1% 94%  
406 2% 92%  
407 2% 90%  
408 2% 89%  
409 2% 87%  
410 2% 85%  
411 3% 82%  
412 3% 80%  
413 4% 76%  
414 3% 73%  
415 3% 70%  
416 3% 67%  
417 5% 64%  
418 5% 59% Median
419 4% 54%  
420 5% 50%  
421 4% 45%  
422 3% 41%  
423 5% 38%  
424 4% 33%  
425 3% 29%  
426 4% 26%  
427 5% 23%  
428 3% 18%  
429 2% 15%  
430 2% 13%  
431 2% 11%  
432 2% 9%  
433 1.4% 7%  
434 1.2% 6%  
435 0.9% 5%  
436 0.8% 4%  
437 0.6% 3%  
438 0.5% 2%  
439 0.4% 2%  
440 0.3% 2%  
441 0.3% 1.2%  
442 0.2% 0.9%  
443 0.2% 0.7%  
444 0.1% 0.5%  
445 0.1% 0.4%  
446 0.1% 0.3%  
447 0.1% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.5%  
365 0.2% 99.4%  
366 0.2% 99.2%  
367 0.2% 99.0%  
368 0.4% 98.7%  
369 0.7% 98%  
370 0.5% 98%  
371 0.6% 97%  
372 0.8% 97%  
373 1.2% 96%  
374 1.1% 95%  
375 1.2% 93%  
376 2% 92%  
377 2% 90%  
378 2% 89%  
379 2% 86%  
380 3% 84%  
381 3% 81%  
382 3% 78%  
383 2% 75%  
384 3% 72%  
385 3% 69%  
386 5% 66%  
387 4% 62%  
388 4% 58% Median
389 4% 54%  
390 4% 50%  
391 4% 45%  
392 4% 41%  
393 5% 37%  
394 3% 32%  
395 3% 29%  
396 3% 25%  
397 3% 23%  
398 2% 20%  
399 3% 18%  
400 2% 14%  
401 2% 12%  
402 2% 10%  
403 2% 8%  
404 1.2% 6%  
405 0.8% 5%  
406 0.9% 4%  
407 0.7% 4%  
408 0.6% 3%  
409 0.3% 2%  
410 0.6% 2%  
411 0.3% 1.3%  
412 0.2% 1.0%  
413 0.2% 0.8%  
414 0.1% 0.6%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0.1% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.6%  
341 0.2% 99.5%  
342 0.2% 99.3%  
343 0.3% 99.1%  
344 0.3% 98.7%  
345 0.6% 98%  
346 0.5% 98%  
347 0.8% 97%  
348 0.7% 96%  
349 0.8% 96%  
350 2% 95%  
351 1.0% 93%  
352 1.3% 92%  
353 2% 91%  
354 3% 89%  
355 1.4% 86% Majority
356 2% 84%  
357 3% 82%  
358 4% 79%  
359 2% 74%  
360 3% 72%  
361 5% 69%  
362 3% 64%  
363 4% 61% Median
364 3% 57%  
365 5% 54%  
366 4% 48%  
367 4% 45%  
368 4% 41%  
369 4% 37%  
370 4% 33%  
371 3% 29%  
372 3% 26%  
373 3% 23%  
374 3% 20%  
375 2% 17%  
376 2% 15%  
377 2% 13%  
378 2% 11%  
379 2% 9%  
380 1.4% 7%  
381 0.9% 6%  
382 1.0% 5%  
383 1.2% 4%  
384 0.6% 3%  
385 0.6% 2%  
386 0.4% 2%  
387 0.3% 1.4%  
388 0.2% 1.1%  
389 0.2% 0.9%  
390 0.2% 0.7%  
391 0.1% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.7%  
318 0.1% 99.6%  
319 0.2% 99.4%  
320 0.2% 99.3%  
321 0.3% 99.1%  
322 0.4% 98.7%  
323 0.5% 98%  
324 0.5% 98%  
325 0.7% 97%  
326 0.7% 97%  
327 1.0% 96%  
328 0.8% 95%  
329 1.3% 94%  
330 2% 93%  
331 1.5% 91%  
332 2% 89%  
333 3% 87%  
334 4% 84%  
335 2% 81%  
336 3% 78%  
337 4% 76%  
338 5% 71%  
339 4% 66%  
340 4% 63%  
341 4% 59% Median
342 4% 54%  
343 6% 51%  
344 3% 45%  
345 4% 42%  
346 6% 38%  
347 3% 32%  
348 3% 29%  
349 3% 26%  
350 4% 23%  
351 2% 19%  
352 3% 17%  
353 2% 14%  
354 2% 12%  
355 2% 11% Majority
356 1.4% 9%  
357 1.2% 8%  
358 1.1% 6%  
359 0.9% 5%  
360 0.8% 4%  
361 0.6% 4%  
362 0.6% 3%  
363 0.5% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.3% 2%  
366 0.2% 1.2%  
367 0.2% 1.0%  
368 0.2% 0.7%  
369 0.2% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.1% 99.6%  
310 0.2% 99.5%  
311 0.1% 99.4%  
312 0.1% 99.2%  
313 0.2% 99.1%  
314 0.4% 98.9%  
315 0.7% 98%  
316 0.8% 98%  
317 1.1% 97%  
318 0.9% 96%  
319 0.7% 95%  
320 0.9% 94%  
321 1.0% 93%  
322 1.1% 92%  
323 2% 91%  
324 3% 90%  
325 3% 86%  
326 3% 83%  
327 3% 80%  
328 3% 77%  
329 2% 75%  
330 3% 73%  
331 3% 70%  
332 4% 67%  
333 5% 63%  
334 6% 58% Median
335 5% 52%  
336 2% 47%  
337 4% 44%  
338 3% 40%  
339 3% 37%  
340 4% 35%  
341 4% 30%  
342 3% 26%  
343 4% 23%  
344 4% 19%  
345 3% 16%  
346 2% 13%  
347 1.2% 11%  
348 1.0% 10%  
349 2% 9%  
350 2% 7%  
351 1.1% 6%  
352 1.1% 5%  
353 0.7% 3%  
354 0.6% 3%  
355 0.4% 2% Majority
356 0.3% 2%  
357 0.2% 1.3%  
358 0.2% 1.1%  
359 0.3% 0.9%  
360 0.1% 0.6%  
361 0.2% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.1% 99.6%  
296 0.2% 99.4%  
297 0.2% 99.2%  
298 0.3% 99.0%  
299 0.6% 98.7%  
300 0.3% 98%  
301 0.6% 98%  
302 0.7% 97%  
303 0.9% 96%  
304 0.8% 96%  
305 1.2% 95%  
306 2% 94%  
307 2% 92%  
308 2% 90%  
309 2% 88%  
310 3% 86%  
311 2% 82%  
312 3% 80%  
313 3% 77%  
314 3% 75%  
315 3% 71%  
316 5% 68%  
317 4% 63%  
318 4% 59% Median
319 4% 55%  
320 4% 50%  
321 4% 46%  
322 4% 42%  
323 5% 38%  
324 3% 34%  
325 3% 31%  
326 2% 28%  
327 3% 25%  
328 3% 22%  
329 3% 19%  
330 2% 16%  
331 2% 14%  
332 2% 11%  
333 2% 10%  
334 1.2% 8%  
335 1.1% 7%  
336 1.2% 5%  
337 0.8% 4%  
338 0.6% 3%  
339 0.5% 3%  
340 0.7% 2%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.2% 1.3%  
343 0.2% 1.0%  
344 0.2% 0.8%  
345 0.1% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.6%  
281 0.2% 99.5%  
282 0.2% 99.3%  
283 0.3% 99.1%  
284 0.3% 98.7%  
285 0.6% 98%  
286 0.6% 98%  
287 0.6% 97%  
288 0.7% 97%  
289 1.3% 96%  
290 1.1% 95%  
291 1.5% 93%  
292 2% 92%  
293 2% 90%  
294 2% 89%  
295 2% 86%  
296 3% 84%  
297 3% 81%  
298 4% 79%  
299 3% 75%  
300 3% 72%  
301 5% 69%  
302 4% 64%  
303 3% 60%  
304 5% 57% Median
305 5% 53%  
306 3% 48%  
307 4% 45%  
308 3% 41%  
309 4% 38%  
310 6% 33%  
311 2% 28%  
312 3% 25%  
313 4% 22%  
314 2% 19%  
315 2% 17%  
316 2% 15%  
317 3% 12%  
318 2% 10%  
319 1.2% 8%  
320 1.2% 7%  
321 0.9% 6%  
322 1.3% 5%  
323 0.6% 3%  
324 0.6% 3%  
325 0.6% 2%  
326 0.3% 2%  
327 0.3% 1.4%  
328 0.2% 1.1%  
329 0.3% 0.8%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.6%  
281 0.2% 99.5%  
282 0.3% 99.3%  
283 0.3% 98.9%  
284 0.4% 98.7%  
285 0.5% 98%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 0.6% 97%  
288 1.0% 97%  
289 1.2% 96%  
290 0.9% 94%  
291 2% 93%  
292 2% 92%  
293 2% 90%  
294 3% 88%  
295 2% 86%  
296 3% 84%  
297 3% 81%  
298 4% 78%  
299 4% 75%  
300 3% 71%  
301 4% 68%  
302 4% 64%  
303 4% 60%  
304 3% 56% Median
305 6% 54%  
306 5% 47%  
307 3% 43%  
308 4% 40%  
309 5% 36%  
310 2% 31%  
311 3% 29%  
312 4% 26%  
313 2% 21%  
314 2% 19%  
315 3% 17%  
316 3% 14%  
317 2% 11%  
318 2% 10%  
319 0.9% 8%  
320 1.2% 7%  
321 1.2% 6%  
322 1.0% 4%  
323 0.6% 3%  
324 0.7% 3%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.4% 2% Last Result
327 0.3% 1.2%  
328 0.2% 0.9%  
329 0.2% 0.8%  
330 0.1% 0.5%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.6%  
236 0.2% 99.4%  
237 0.2% 99.3%  
238 0.3% 99.0%  
239 0.3% 98.7%  
240 0.7% 98%  
241 0.7% 98%  
242 0.7% 97%  
243 1.0% 96%  
244 1.5% 95%  
245 1.4% 94%  
246 1.5% 92%  
247 2% 91%  
248 2% 89%  
249 2% 87%  
250 3% 85%  
251 2% 82%  
252 5% 80%  
253 3% 74%  
254 6% 71%  
255 5% 66%  
256 3% 61%  
257 4% 57% Median
258 4% 53%  
259 3% 49%  
260 4% 46%  
261 5% 42%  
262 3% 37%  
263 5% 34%  
264 3% 29%  
265 3% 26%  
266 3% 23%  
267 3% 20%  
268 3% 17%  
269 2% 14%  
270 2% 12%  
271 2% 10%  
272 1.1% 8%  
273 1.3% 7%  
274 0.7% 6%  
275 1.0% 5%  
276 1.0% 4%  
277 0.5% 3%  
278 0.6% 2%  
279 0.4% 2%  
280 0.4% 1.5%  
281 0.2% 1.1%  
282 0.3% 0.9%  
283 0.1% 0.6%  
284 0.1% 0.5%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.3%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0.1% 99.8%  
176 0.1% 99.6%  
177 0.2% 99.5%  
178 0.2% 99.3%  
179 0.3% 99.1%  
180 0.5% 98.8%  
181 0.5% 98%  
182 0.9% 98%  
183 0.9% 97%  
184 1.0% 96%  
185 2% 95%  
186 2% 93%  
187 2% 92%  
188 2% 90%  
189 3% 88%  
190 3% 85%  
191 3% 82%  
192 4% 80%  
193 4% 76%  
194 4% 71%  
195 5% 67%  
196 4% 62%  
197 4% 58%  
198 4% 54% Median
199 5% 50%  
200 4% 44%  
201 5% 40%  
202 5% 35%  
203 3% 30%  
204 5% 27%  
205 3% 22%  
206 3% 20%  
207 2% 16%  
208 2% 14%  
209 2% 12%  
210 2% 10%  
211 1.4% 8%  
212 1.0% 6%  
213 1.0% 5%  
214 1.0% 4%  
215 0.7% 3%  
216 0.6% 3%  
217 0.4% 2%  
218 0.4% 2%  
219 0.3% 1.2%  
220 0.3% 0.9%  
221 0.2% 0.7%  
222 0.1% 0.5%  
223 0.1% 0.4%  
224 0.1% 0.3%  
225 0.1% 0.2%  
226 0% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.6%  
155 0.3% 99.5%  
156 0.2% 99.2%  
157 0.7% 98.9%  
158 0.4% 98%  
159 0.7% 98%  
160 0.8% 97%  
161 1.2% 96%  
162 0.9% 95%  
163 2% 94%  
164 2% 93%  
165 2% 91%  
166 2% 89%  
167 3% 87%  
168 4% 83%  
169 3% 79%  
170 5% 76%  
171 4% 71%  
172 4% 67%  
173 5% 63%  
174 6% 59%  
175 4% 53% Median
176 5% 49%  
177 4% 44%  
178 5% 40%  
179 3% 34%  
180 4% 31%  
181 4% 27%  
182 3% 23%  
183 2% 20%  
184 3% 18%  
185 2% 14%  
186 2% 12%  
187 2% 10%  
188 2% 8%  
189 1.3% 6%  
190 0.9% 5%  
191 1.3% 4%  
192 0.6% 3%  
193 0.5% 2%  
194 0.4% 2%  
195 0.3% 1.2%  
196 0.2% 0.9%  
197 0.2% 0.7%  
198 0.1% 0.5%  
199 0.1% 0.4%  
200 0.1% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations