Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 5–9 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.4–24.3% 21.0–24.7% 20.6–25.1% 20.0–25.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.8–18.4% 15.4–18.8% 15.1–19.1% 14.5–19.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 15.8–18.4% 15.4–18.8% 15.1–19.1% 14.5–19.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.3–13.8% 9.9–14.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.4–12.8% 9.0–13.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.6% 6.2–10.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.4% 4.2–6.6% 3.9–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 173 162–184 159–188 157–190 152–196
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 129 120–140 117–142 115–145 110–150
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 129 120–139 117–142 115–145 110–150
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 91 83–100 81–103 79–105 75–109
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 76–92 74–95 72–97 68–101
Die Linke 69 61 54–69 52–70 50–72 48–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 35–46 33–48 32–50 29–53

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.6%  
153 0.2% 99.3%  
154 0.4% 99.1%  
155 0.5% 98.7%  
156 0.5% 98%  
157 0.8% 98%  
158 0.9% 97%  
159 1.0% 96%  
160 1.4% 95%  
161 2% 94%  
162 2% 91%  
163 3% 90%  
164 3% 87%  
165 3% 84%  
166 3% 81%  
167 4% 78%  
168 5% 74%  
169 3% 70%  
170 5% 66%  
171 5% 61%  
172 4% 56%  
173 4% 52% Median
174 4% 48%  
175 6% 44%  
176 4% 39%  
177 4% 35%  
178 5% 31%  
179 3% 26%  
180 3% 23%  
181 3% 20%  
182 2% 17%  
183 2% 14%  
184 3% 12%  
185 2% 9%  
186 1.3% 8%  
187 1.2% 6%  
188 1.3% 5%  
189 0.7% 4%  
190 0.7% 3%  
191 0.6% 2%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.3%  
194 0.3% 1.0%  
195 0.2% 0.8%  
196 0.1% 0.5%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.8%  
110 0.2% 99.6%  
111 0.3% 99.4%  
112 0.4% 99.1%  
113 0.4% 98.7%  
114 0.6% 98%  
115 0.8% 98%  
116 0.9% 97%  
117 1.5% 96%  
118 1.5% 94%  
119 2% 93%  
120 2% 91%  
121 3% 88%  
122 3% 85%  
123 3% 82%  
124 5% 78%  
125 4% 73%  
126 4% 69%  
127 6% 65%  
128 5% 59%  
129 4% 53% Median
130 7% 49%  
131 4% 42%  
132 5% 37%  
133 4% 33%  
134 3% 29%  
135 3% 25%  
136 3% 22%  
137 3% 19%  
138 2% 16%  
139 3% 14%  
140 2% 11%  
141 2% 9%  
142 1.5% 6%  
143 1.4% 5%  
144 0.9% 3%  
145 0.6% 3%  
146 0.5% 2%  
147 0.3% 1.4%  
148 0.3% 1.1%  
149 0.2% 0.8%  
150 0.2% 0.6%  
151 0.1% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.8%  
110 0.2% 99.6%  
111 0.2% 99.4%  
112 0.3% 99.2%  
113 0.5% 98.9%  
114 0.6% 98%  
115 0.7% 98%  
116 2% 97%  
117 1.4% 95%  
118 1.4% 94%  
119 2% 93%  
120 3% 91%  
121 3% 88%  
122 3% 85%  
123 4% 82%  
124 4% 78%  
125 3% 74%  
126 4% 70%  
127 7% 66%  
128 6% 59%  
129 5% 53% Median
130 4% 48%  
131 4% 44%  
132 5% 39%  
133 4% 34%  
134 6% 30%  
135 4% 25%  
136 3% 21%  
137 2% 18%  
138 3% 15%  
139 2% 12%  
140 3% 10%  
141 1.4% 7%  
142 1.1% 6%  
143 0.9% 5%  
144 0.9% 4%  
145 0.7% 3%  
146 0.7% 2%  
147 0.3% 1.5%  
148 0.3% 1.2%  
149 0.2% 0.8%  
150 0.2% 0.6%  
151 0.1% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 0.3% 99.3%  
77 0.6% 99.0%  
78 0.9% 98%  
79 0.9% 98%  
80 1.3% 97% Last Result
81 2% 95%  
82 2% 94%  
83 3% 91%  
84 4% 88%  
85 3% 84%  
86 4% 81%  
87 5% 77%  
88 5% 72%  
89 5% 66%  
90 8% 62%  
91 7% 54% Median
92 4% 48%  
93 7% 43%  
94 5% 37%  
95 4% 31%  
96 5% 27%  
97 5% 22%  
98 3% 17%  
99 3% 14%  
100 2% 11%  
101 2% 9%  
102 2% 7%  
103 1.5% 5%  
104 1.1% 4%  
105 0.8% 3%  
106 0.6% 2%  
107 0.4% 1.4%  
108 0.3% 1.0%  
109 0.2% 0.7%  
110 0.2% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.4% 99.5%  
70 0.5% 99.1%  
71 0.7% 98.6%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 1.4% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 93%  
76 3% 91%  
77 3% 88%  
78 4% 85%  
79 5% 81%  
80 5% 76%  
81 6% 71%  
82 6% 65%  
83 6% 58%  
84 5% 52% Median
85 6% 47%  
86 6% 41%  
87 6% 35%  
88 5% 29%  
89 5% 24%  
90 4% 20%  
91 3% 16%  
92 3% 13%  
93 2% 10%  
94 2% 8% Last Result
95 1.4% 6%  
96 1.1% 4%  
97 0.8% 3%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.4% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.1%  
101 0.2% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.7%  
48 0.3% 99.5%  
49 0.9% 99.2%  
50 0.9% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 1.3% 95%  
53 2% 94%  
54 3% 92%  
55 3% 89%  
56 5% 86%  
57 7% 82%  
58 8% 75%  
59 8% 67%  
60 5% 59%  
61 11% 55% Median
62 5% 44%  
63 10% 39%  
64 5% 29%  
65 5% 24%  
66 3% 19%  
67 2% 16%  
68 3% 14%  
69 2% 10% Last Result
70 3% 8%  
71 1.4% 5%  
72 1.1% 4%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.5% 1.2%  
76 0.4% 0.7%  
77 0.1% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.8%  
30 0.3% 99.3%  
31 1.4% 99.0%  
32 1.2% 98%  
33 3% 96%  
34 3% 93%  
35 5% 90%  
36 6% 85%  
37 5% 79%  
38 10% 74%  
39 6% 64%  
40 12% 58% Median
41 5% 46%  
42 11% 41%  
43 5% 30%  
44 7% 25%  
45 4% 18%  
46 5% 14% Last Result
47 2% 9%  
48 2% 7%  
49 1.4% 4%  
50 0.9% 3%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.3% 1.1%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 473 100% 461–484 457–488 454–491 448–496
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 434 100% 422–447 419–451 415–453 409–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 434 100% 422–447 418–450 415–453 409–459
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 389 100% 376–402 372–405 370–409 363–414
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 350 33% 337–363 334–367 331–370 325–376
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 343 12% 330–355 326–359 323–363 318–369
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 343 12% 330–355 326–360 323–363 317–369
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 320 0% 307–333 304–337 300–339 295–346
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 305 0% 292–318 289–321 286–324 280–330
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 298 0% 285–310 281–314 278–317 273–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 259 0% 246–271 243–275 240–278 235–284
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 221 0% 209–233 206–236 203–239 197–245
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 190 0% 179–202 176–205 173–208 168–214

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0% 99.9%  
444 0% 99.9%  
445 0.1% 99.9%  
446 0.1% 99.8%  
447 0.1% 99.7%  
448 0.2% 99.6%  
449 0.2% 99.4%  
450 0.1% 99.2%  
451 0.4% 99.0%  
452 0.6% 98.6%  
453 0.3% 98%  
454 1.0% 98%  
455 1.0% 97%  
456 0.5% 96%  
457 1.0% 95%  
458 2% 94%  
459 1.0% 93%  
460 2% 92%  
461 2% 90%  
462 2% 88%  
463 3% 85%  
464 2% 83%  
465 3% 81%  
466 3% 78% Last Result
467 3% 75%  
468 4% 73%  
469 6% 69%  
470 3% 62%  
471 3% 59% Median
472 6% 56%  
473 5% 50%  
474 2% 46%  
475 6% 43%  
476 7% 37%  
477 2% 31%  
478 5% 29%  
479 4% 24%  
480 1.4% 20%  
481 2% 18%  
482 3% 16%  
483 1.4% 13%  
484 2% 12%  
485 2% 10%  
486 2% 8%  
487 1.3% 6%  
488 0.6% 5%  
489 0.7% 5%  
490 0.9% 4%  
491 0.4% 3%  
492 0.4% 2%  
493 0.8% 2%  
494 0.3% 1.2%  
495 0.2% 0.9%  
496 0.2% 0.7%  
497 0.2% 0.5%  
498 0.1% 0.3%  
499 0.1% 0.3%  
500 0.1% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.1%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.8%  
407 0.1% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0.1% 99.6%  
410 0.2% 99.5%  
411 0.3% 99.3%  
412 0.3% 99.0%  
413 0.4% 98.6%  
414 0.4% 98%  
415 0.4% 98%  
416 0.7% 97%  
417 0.8% 97%  
418 0.9% 96%  
419 2% 95%  
420 2% 93%  
421 2% 92%  
422 2% 90%  
423 2% 88%  
424 2% 86%  
425 2% 84%  
426 3% 82%  
427 3% 79%  
428 3% 77%  
429 3% 73%  
430 5% 70%  
431 3% 65%  
432 5% 62%  
433 4% 57% Median
434 3% 53%  
435 4% 50%  
436 4% 46%  
437 4% 42%  
438 3% 38%  
439 4% 35%  
440 4% 31%  
441 4% 27%  
442 3% 23%  
443 2% 20%  
444 3% 17%  
445 2% 14%  
446 2% 12%  
447 2% 11%  
448 1.4% 9%  
449 1.2% 7%  
450 1.1% 6%  
451 1.1% 5%  
452 0.9% 4%  
453 0.7% 3%  
454 0.5% 2%  
455 0.4% 2%  
456 0.3% 1.3%  
457 0.2% 1.1%  
458 0.2% 0.8%  
459 0.1% 0.6%  
460 0.2% 0.5%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0.1% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.8%  
407 0.1% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0.2% 99.6%  
410 0.2% 99.4%  
411 0.2% 99.2%  
412 0.3% 99.0%  
413 0.4% 98.7%  
414 0.5% 98%  
415 0.4% 98%  
416 0.9% 97%  
417 0.8% 96%  
418 0.8% 96%  
419 1.2% 95%  
420 1.5% 94%  
421 2% 92%  
422 2% 91%  
423 3% 89%  
424 2% 86%  
425 3% 84%  
426 1.5% 81%  
427 4% 80%  
428 4% 76%  
429 3% 72%  
430 3% 69%  
431 4% 66%  
432 4% 62%  
433 4% 58% Median
434 4% 54%  
435 4% 50%  
436 4% 46%  
437 4% 42%  
438 4% 38%  
439 4% 34%  
440 4% 31%  
441 2% 26%  
442 3% 24%  
443 3% 20%  
444 3% 17%  
445 2% 14%  
446 2% 12%  
447 2% 10%  
448 1.3% 8%  
449 1.1% 7%  
450 2% 6%  
451 0.9% 4%  
452 0.4% 3%  
453 0.8% 3%  
454 0.5% 2%  
455 0.4% 2%  
456 0.2% 1.3%  
457 0.3% 1.1%  
458 0.2% 0.8%  
459 0.2% 0.6%  
460 0.1% 0.5%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0.1% 99.5%  
365 0.3% 99.4%  
366 0.4% 99.1%  
367 0.4% 98.7%  
368 0.3% 98%  
369 0.3% 98%  
370 0.7% 98%  
371 1.4% 97%  
372 0.9% 96%  
373 1.1% 95%  
374 0.7% 94%  
375 1.1% 93%  
376 2% 92%  
377 2% 89%  
378 3% 88%  
379 2% 84%  
380 1.2% 83%  
381 4% 81%  
382 4% 78%  
383 5% 74%  
384 3% 69%  
385 2% 66%  
386 3% 64%  
387 4% 61%  
388 6% 58% Median
389 5% 51%  
390 2% 46%  
391 2% 44%  
392 3% 42%  
393 7% 39%  
394 6% 33%  
395 2% 27%  
396 2% 25%  
397 2% 23%  
398 3% 21%  
399 4% 18%  
400 2% 14%  
401 2% 12%  
402 0.8% 10%  
403 2% 10%  
404 2% 8%  
405 2% 6%  
406 1.2% 5%  
407 0.3% 3%  
408 0.5% 3%  
409 0.7% 3%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0.4% 1.4%  
412 0.1% 1.0%  
413 0.1% 0.8%  
414 0.2% 0.7%  
415 0.1% 0.5%  
416 0.2% 0.4%  
417 0.1% 0.3%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0.2% 99.7%  
325 0.2% 99.5%  
326 0.3% 99.3%  
327 0.2% 99.0%  
328 0.4% 98.9%  
329 0.3% 98%  
330 0.4% 98%  
331 0.6% 98%  
332 0.7% 97%  
333 0.9% 96%  
334 0.9% 96%  
335 1.2% 95%  
336 1.0% 93%  
337 3% 92%  
338 2% 90%  
339 2% 88%  
340 2% 86%  
341 2% 83%  
342 4% 81%  
343 2% 77%  
344 3% 75%  
345 3% 72%  
346 4% 69%  
347 4% 65%  
348 4% 61%  
349 3% 57% Median
350 5% 54%  
351 4% 49%  
352 4% 45%  
353 4% 41%  
354 4% 37%  
355 3% 33% Majority
356 4% 30%  
357 2% 26%  
358 4% 24%  
359 2% 21%  
360 3% 18%  
361 2% 15%  
362 2% 13%  
363 2% 11%  
364 1.3% 9%  
365 1.3% 8%  
366 1.1% 7%  
367 2% 6%  
368 0.7% 4%  
369 0.7% 3%  
370 0.4% 3%  
371 0.7% 2%  
372 0.3% 2%  
373 0.2% 1.2%  
374 0.2% 1.0%  
375 0.2% 0.8%  
376 0.2% 0.6%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9% Last Result
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.1% 99.5%  
319 0.3% 99.4%  
320 0.2% 99.1%  
321 0.5% 98.9%  
322 0.4% 98%  
323 0.6% 98%  
324 0.6% 97%  
325 0.7% 97%  
326 1.0% 96%  
327 0.9% 95%  
328 1.2% 94%  
329 1.3% 93%  
330 2% 92%  
331 2% 90%  
332 3% 88%  
333 2% 85%  
334 2% 83%  
335 3% 80%  
336 3% 77%  
337 4% 75%  
338 4% 71%  
339 4% 67%  
340 4% 63%  
341 4% 59%  
342 3% 55% Median
343 5% 52%  
344 3% 47%  
345 3% 45%  
346 4% 41%  
347 3% 37%  
348 4% 34%  
349 4% 30%  
350 3% 26%  
351 3% 22%  
352 3% 20%  
353 2% 16%  
354 2% 14%  
355 2% 12% Majority
356 2% 10%  
357 2% 8%  
358 1.1% 7%  
359 1.1% 6%  
360 0.9% 5%  
361 0.6% 4%  
362 0.5% 3%  
363 0.7% 3%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.4% 2%  
366 0.3% 1.2%  
367 0.2% 0.9%  
368 0.2% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.2% 99.6%  
318 0.2% 99.5%  
319 0.2% 99.3%  
320 0.4% 99.1%  
321 0.3% 98.7%  
322 0.5% 98%  
323 0.5% 98%  
324 0.6% 97%  
325 1.0% 97%  
326 1.1% 96%  
327 1.1% 95%  
328 1.3% 94%  
329 1.1% 92%  
330 2% 91%  
331 2% 90%  
332 2% 88%  
333 2% 85%  
334 4% 83%  
335 2% 79%  
336 3% 77%  
337 2% 74%  
338 4% 72%  
339 3% 68%  
340 5% 65%  
341 3% 60%  
342 5% 57% Median
343 4% 53%  
344 4% 49%  
345 4% 45%  
346 4% 41%  
347 6% 37%  
348 3% 31%  
349 4% 28%  
350 3% 24%  
351 3% 21%  
352 2% 18%  
353 2% 16%  
354 2% 14%  
355 2% 12% Majority
356 1.2% 10%  
357 1.3% 9%  
358 1.3% 7%  
359 0.9% 6%  
360 1.1% 5%  
361 0.6% 4%  
362 1.0% 3%  
363 0.7% 3%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.3% 1.5%  
366 0.2% 1.1%  
367 0.2% 0.9%  
368 0.2% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.2% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.2% 99.5%  
296 0.1% 99.3%  
297 0.1% 99.2%  
298 0.4% 99.0%  
299 0.4% 98.6%  
300 0.7% 98%  
301 0.5% 97%  
302 0.3% 97%  
303 1.2% 97%  
304 2% 95%  
305 2% 94%  
306 2% 92%  
307 0.8% 90%  
308 2% 90%  
309 2% 88%  
310 4% 86%  
311 3% 82%  
312 2% 79%  
313 2% 77%  
314 2% 75%  
315 6% 73%  
316 7% 67%  
317 3% 61%  
318 2% 58%  
319 2% 56% Median
320 5% 54%  
321 6% 49%  
322 4% 42%  
323 3% 39%  
324 2% 36%  
325 3% 34%  
326 5% 31%  
327 4% 26%  
328 4% 22%  
329 1.2% 19%  
330 2% 17%  
331 3% 16%  
332 2% 12%  
333 2% 11%  
334 1.1% 8%  
335 0.7% 7%  
336 1.1% 6%  
337 0.9% 5%  
338 1.4% 4%  
339 0.7% 3%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.3% 2%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.4% 1.3%  
344 0.3% 0.9%  
345 0.1% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.2% 99.5%  
281 0.3% 99.4%  
282 0.2% 99.1%  
283 0.4% 98.9%  
284 0.3% 98.5%  
285 0.5% 98%  
286 0.9% 98%  
287 0.6% 97%  
288 1.2% 96%  
289 1.3% 95%  
290 2% 94%  
291 1.0% 92%  
292 2% 91%  
293 2% 89%  
294 3% 88%  
295 3% 85%  
296 2% 82%  
297 4% 80%  
298 3% 76%  
299 3% 74%  
300 3% 70%  
301 3% 67%  
302 3% 64%  
303 5% 60%  
304 4% 55% Median
305 3% 52%  
306 6% 48%  
307 4% 42%  
308 2% 38%  
309 4% 36%  
310 3% 32%  
311 4% 30%  
312 3% 26%  
313 4% 23%  
314 3% 20%  
315 3% 17%  
316 2% 14%  
317 1.2% 12%  
318 2% 10%  
319 1.1% 9%  
320 2% 8%  
321 1.1% 6%  
322 1.2% 5%  
323 0.8% 4%  
324 0.6% 3%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.3% 2% Last Result
327 0.4% 2%  
328 0.2% 1.2%  
329 0.3% 0.9%  
330 0.2% 0.7%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.2% 99.7%  
273 0.2% 99.5%  
274 0.2% 99.3%  
275 0.3% 99.1%  
276 0.3% 98.8%  
277 0.4% 98%  
278 0.6% 98%  
279 0.5% 97%  
280 0.7% 97%  
281 1.2% 96%  
282 1.3% 95%  
283 1.3% 94%  
284 2% 92%  
285 0.9% 91%  
286 3% 90%  
287 3% 87%  
288 1.4% 84%  
289 3% 83%  
290 3% 80%  
291 3% 77%  
292 3% 73%  
293 3% 70%  
294 3% 66%  
295 6% 63%  
296 3% 57%  
297 4% 55% Median
298 5% 51%  
299 3% 46%  
300 7% 43%  
301 3% 36%  
302 2% 34%  
303 4% 31%  
304 4% 28%  
305 3% 24%  
306 3% 21%  
307 2% 18%  
308 2% 16%  
309 3% 14%  
310 1.4% 11%  
311 2% 10%  
312 2% 8%  
313 0.7% 6%  
314 1.5% 6%  
315 0.9% 4%  
316 0.5% 3%  
317 0.5% 3%  
318 0.5% 2%  
319 0.4% 2%  
320 0.3% 1.3%  
321 0.2% 1.0%  
322 0.2% 0.8%  
323 0.3% 0.7%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.3%  
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.6%  
235 0.1% 99.5%  
236 0.3% 99.4%  
237 0.2% 99.1%  
238 0.4% 98.8%  
239 0.4% 98%  
240 0.5% 98%  
241 0.9% 97%  
242 0.7% 97%  
243 1.2% 96%  
244 1.0% 95%  
245 2% 94%  
246 2% 92%  
247 2% 90%  
248 3% 88%  
249 2% 86%  
250 2% 83%  
251 3% 82%  
252 4% 78%  
253 4% 75%  
254 3% 71%  
255 5% 68%  
256 3% 63%  
257 3% 60%  
258 5% 56% Median
259 4% 51%  
260 4% 47%  
261 3% 43%  
262 4% 40%  
263 4% 36%  
264 3% 31%  
265 4% 29%  
266 3% 24%  
267 3% 21%  
268 3% 19%  
269 2% 16%  
270 3% 14%  
271 2% 11%  
272 1.1% 9%  
273 1.5% 8%  
274 1.4% 7%  
275 1.2% 5%  
276 0.6% 4%  
277 0.7% 3%  
278 0.7% 3%  
279 0.4% 2%  
280 0.4% 2%  
281 0.4% 1.4%  
282 0.3% 1.0%  
283 0.2% 0.7%  
284 0.1% 0.5%  
285 0.1% 0.4%  
286 0.1% 0.3%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.7%  
197 0.1% 99.6%  
198 0.2% 99.5%  
199 0.3% 99.3%  
200 0.3% 99.0%  
201 0.4% 98.8%  
202 0.6% 98%  
203 0.7% 98%  
204 0.7% 97%  
205 1.2% 96%  
206 1.3% 95%  
207 1.2% 94%  
208 2% 93%  
209 2% 91%  
210 3% 90%  
211 2% 87%  
212 3% 85%  
213 3% 82%  
214 4% 79%  
215 3% 75%  
216 4% 72%  
217 4% 68%  
218 4% 64%  
219 2% 60%  
220 6% 57% Median
221 5% 51%  
222 3% 46%  
223 5% 43%  
224 4% 38%  
225 4% 34%  
226 3% 30%  
227 3% 27%  
228 3% 23%  
229 3% 20%  
230 3% 18%  
231 2% 15%  
232 2% 13%  
233 2% 11% Last Result
234 0.9% 9%  
235 2% 8%  
236 1.3% 6%  
237 0.8% 5%  
238 0.6% 4%  
239 1.0% 3%  
240 0.6% 2%  
241 0.3% 2%  
242 0.4% 1.4%  
243 0.3% 1.0%  
244 0.1% 0.7%  
245 0.2% 0.6%  
246 0.1% 0.4%  
247 0.1% 0.3%  
248 0.1% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.8%  
167 0.1% 99.7%  
168 0.1% 99.6%  
169 0.1% 99.5%  
170 0.2% 99.4%  
171 0.5% 99.1%  
172 0.6% 98.6%  
173 0.7% 98%  
174 0.9% 97%  
175 0.8% 96%  
176 0.8% 96%  
177 1.0% 95%  
178 1.4% 94%  
179 3% 93%  
180 3% 89%  
181 3% 87%  
182 3% 84%  
183 2% 80%  
184 3% 79%  
185 3% 76%  
186 5% 73%  
187 6% 68%  
188 7% 62%  
189 4% 56%  
190 3% 52% Median
191 3% 49%  
192 6% 46%  
193 5% 41%  
194 4% 36%  
195 4% 32%  
196 4% 28%  
197 3% 24%  
198 1.4% 21%  
199 2% 20%  
200 4% 18%  
201 2% 13%  
202 2% 11%  
203 2% 9%  
204 1.1% 7%  
205 1.1% 6%  
206 0.6% 5%  
207 0.8% 4%  
208 1.1% 4%  
209 0.9% 2%  
210 0.3% 1.5%  
211 0.3% 1.2%  
212 0.2% 0.9%  
213 0.1% 0.7%  
214 0.1% 0.6%  
215 0.1% 0.4%  
216 0.1% 0.3%  
217 0.1% 0.2%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations