Opinion Poll by Forsa, 6–12 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 24.4% 23.2–25.7% 22.8–26.0% 22.5–26.4% 21.9–27.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.6% 5.0–6.4% 4.8–6.6% 4.7–6.8% 4.4–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 188 178–197 176–200 173–202 169–207
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 146 138–155 136–157 134–159 129–164
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 116 108–124 106–126 104–128 100–132
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 92 85–99 84–102 82–104 79–107
Alternative für Deutschland 94 69 63–76 62–78 60–80 58–83
Die Linke 69 54 49–60 47–62 46–63 43–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 44 39–49 37–50 36–52 34–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0.1% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.2% 99.6%  
170 0.3% 99.4%  
171 0.4% 99.1%  
172 0.7% 98.7%  
173 0.7% 98%  
174 1.1% 97%  
175 1.1% 96%  
176 2% 95%  
177 2% 93%  
178 3% 91%  
179 2% 88%  
180 4% 86%  
181 3% 82%  
182 4% 79%  
183 5% 76%  
184 4% 70%  
185 7% 66%  
186 5% 59%  
187 4% 54%  
188 6% 50% Median
189 4% 44%  
190 7% 40%  
191 4% 33%  
192 5% 29%  
193 4% 25%  
194 3% 21%  
195 4% 18%  
196 3% 14%  
197 3% 11%  
198 1.2% 8%  
199 2% 7%  
200 1.1% 5% Last Result
201 1.2% 4%  
202 1.1% 3%  
203 0.5% 2%  
204 0.4% 1.4%  
205 0.2% 1.0%  
206 0.3% 0.8%  
207 0.2% 0.6%  
208 0.2% 0.4%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.2% 99.8%  
129 0.3% 99.6%  
130 0.4% 99.3%  
131 0.4% 98.9%  
132 0.4% 98%  
133 0.5% 98%  
134 0.7% 98%  
135 1.2% 97%  
136 2% 96%  
137 3% 94%  
138 4% 90%  
139 4% 86%  
140 4% 82%  
141 4% 78%  
142 2% 75%  
143 4% 72%  
144 6% 69%  
145 7% 63%  
146 8% 56% Median
147 8% 47%  
148 8% 40%  
149 5% 32%  
150 3% 27%  
151 2% 24%  
152 3% 22%  
153 3% 19%  
154 3% 15%  
155 4% 12%  
156 3% 9%  
157 2% 6%  
158 0.9% 4%  
159 0.7% 3%  
160 0.4% 2%  
161 0.3% 2%  
162 0.4% 1.5%  
163 0.4% 1.1%  
164 0.3% 0.7%  
165 0.2% 0.4%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.6%  
101 0.3% 99.4%  
102 0.6% 99.1%  
103 0.8% 98%  
104 1.1% 98%  
105 1.3% 97%  
106 2% 95%  
107 2% 93%  
108 3% 91%  
109 3% 88%  
110 5% 85%  
111 6% 80%  
112 6% 74%  
113 6% 68%  
114 6% 62%  
115 6% 56%  
116 8% 50% Median
117 5% 43%  
118 5% 38%  
119 6% 32%  
120 6% 27%  
121 5% 21%  
122 4% 17%  
123 3% 13%  
124 3% 10%  
125 2% 7%  
126 1.5% 5%  
127 1.1% 4%  
128 0.7% 3%  
129 0.7% 2%  
130 0.4% 1.3%  
131 0.3% 0.9%  
132 0.2% 0.6%  
133 0.2% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.2% 99.7%  
79 0.4% 99.5%  
80 0.5% 99.1% Last Result
81 1.0% 98.6%  
82 1.0% 98%  
83 1.5% 97%  
84 2% 95%  
85 3% 93%  
86 4% 89%  
87 4% 86%  
88 6% 82%  
89 6% 76%  
90 7% 70%  
91 6% 64%  
92 8% 57% Median
93 7% 49%  
94 8% 43%  
95 6% 35%  
96 6% 29%  
97 5% 23%  
98 4% 18%  
99 4% 14%  
100 2% 10%  
101 2% 7%  
102 2% 5%  
103 1.1% 4%  
104 0.9% 3%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.3% 1.1%  
107 0.3% 0.7%  
108 0.2% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.7%  
58 0.5% 99.5%  
59 0.9% 99.0%  
60 1.1% 98%  
61 2% 97%  
62 3% 95%  
63 3% 92%  
64 4% 89%  
65 6% 85%  
66 6% 79%  
67 7% 74%  
68 8% 66%  
69 8% 58% Median
70 8% 50%  
71 8% 42%  
72 5% 34%  
73 7% 29%  
74 5% 21%  
75 4% 16%  
76 4% 12%  
77 3% 8%  
78 2% 6%  
79 1.2% 4%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.5% 99.4%  
45 0.9% 98.9%  
46 1.4% 98%  
47 2% 97%  
48 3% 94%  
49 5% 91%  
50 6% 86%  
51 7% 80%  
52 9% 73%  
53 9% 64%  
54 11% 55% Median
55 8% 44%  
56 8% 36%  
57 7% 28%  
58 5% 21%  
59 5% 16%  
60 4% 11%  
61 2% 8%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.3% 4%  
64 1.0% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.3%  
66 0.3% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.7%  
35 0.8% 99.3%  
36 2% 98%  
37 3% 97%  
38 4% 94%  
39 5% 90%  
40 8% 85%  
41 8% 77%  
42 10% 69%  
43 8% 60%  
44 11% 51% Median
45 10% 40%  
46 9% 30% Last Result
47 6% 22%  
48 5% 16%  
49 4% 10%  
50 2% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.0% 3%  
53 0.8% 2%  
54 0.5% 1.0%  
55 0.3% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 493 100% 483–503 480–505 477–507 473–512
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 470 100% 460–480 457–482 454–485 449–490
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 439 100% 428–449 426–452 423–455 418–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 393 100% 383–404 379–407 377–409 372–414
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 377 99.7% 367–388 364–391 361–393 356–399
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 355 50% 344–365 341–368 338–370 332–375
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 347 17% 336–357 333–360 331–363 325–368
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 324 0% 313–334 310–337 308–340 302–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 316 0% 305–326 302–330 300–332 295–337
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 301 0% 290–311 287–314 285–317 280–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 262 0% 251–272 249–275 246–277 241–283
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 208 0% 198–217 196–220 193–223 189–228
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 170 0% 161–179 158–182 156–184 152–189

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 99.9%  
469 0% 99.9%  
470 0.1% 99.9%  
471 0.1% 99.8%  
472 0.2% 99.7%  
473 0.1% 99.5%  
474 0.2% 99.4%  
475 0.4% 99.2%  
476 0.6% 98.8%  
477 0.8% 98%  
478 0.8% 97%  
479 1.2% 97%  
480 1.1% 96%  
481 1.3% 94%  
482 2% 93%  
483 2% 91%  
484 2% 89%  
485 3% 87%  
486 4% 84%  
487 4% 80%  
488 5% 76%  
489 4% 71%  
490 4% 67%  
491 6% 63%  
492 4% 57%  
493 5% 52%  
494 6% 47% Median
495 7% 41%  
496 5% 34%  
497 5% 29%  
498 3% 24%  
499 3% 22%  
500 3% 19%  
501 3% 16%  
502 2% 13%  
503 3% 11%  
504 2% 8%  
505 2% 7%  
506 1.2% 5%  
507 1.2% 3%  
508 0.6% 2%  
509 0.4% 2%  
510 0.2% 1.2%  
511 0.2% 0.9%  
512 0.2% 0.7%  
513 0.1% 0.5%  
514 0.1% 0.3%  
515 0.1% 0.2%  
516 0.1% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 99.9%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0.1% 99.9%  
447 0.1% 99.8%  
448 0.1% 99.7%  
449 0.1% 99.6%  
450 0.2% 99.5%  
451 0.4% 99.3%  
452 0.6% 98.8%  
453 0.6% 98%  
454 0.7% 98%  
455 0.8% 97%  
456 1.0% 96%  
457 1.4% 95%  
458 1.5% 94%  
459 2% 92%  
460 2% 90%  
461 3% 88%  
462 4% 85%  
463 4% 81%  
464 3% 77%  
465 4% 74%  
466 4% 70%  
467 6% 66%  
468 4% 60%  
469 4% 56%  
470 4% 51% Median
471 4% 47%  
472 7% 43%  
473 6% 36%  
474 3% 30%  
475 4% 27%  
476 3% 23%  
477 4% 20%  
478 3% 16%  
479 2% 13%  
480 2% 10%  
481 2% 8%  
482 2% 7%  
483 1.2% 5%  
484 0.9% 4%  
485 0.6% 3%  
486 0.6% 2%  
487 0.5% 2%  
488 0.2% 1.0%  
489 0.3% 0.8%  
490 0.1% 0.5%  
491 0.1% 0.4%  
492 0.1% 0.3%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.2% 99.6%  
419 0.3% 99.4%  
420 0.2% 99.2%  
421 0.4% 98.9%  
422 0.7% 98.5%  
423 0.5% 98%  
424 0.8% 97%  
425 1.1% 96%  
426 2% 95%  
427 2% 94%  
428 2% 92%  
429 2% 90%  
430 3% 88%  
431 3% 85%  
432 3% 82%  
433 3% 79%  
434 3% 76%  
435 5% 73%  
436 5% 68%  
437 4% 63%  
438 3% 59%  
439 8% 56%  
440 5% 48% Median
441 4% 42%  
442 5% 38%  
443 4% 33%  
444 5% 29%  
445 3% 24%  
446 4% 21%  
447 2% 17%  
448 3% 15%  
449 2% 12%  
450 2% 9%  
451 1.4% 8%  
452 2% 6%  
453 1.0% 4%  
454 0.8% 3%  
455 0.7% 3%  
456 0.5% 2%  
457 0.5% 1.5%  
458 0.2% 1.0%  
459 0.2% 0.7%  
460 0.1% 0.5%  
461 0.2% 0.4%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0.1% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0.2% 99.5%  
373 0.3% 99.4%  
374 0.4% 99.1%  
375 0.3% 98.6%  
376 0.6% 98%  
377 0.7% 98%  
378 0.7% 97%  
379 1.3% 96%  
380 1.3% 95%  
381 2% 94%  
382 2% 92%  
383 2% 90%  
384 3% 88%  
385 3% 85%  
386 4% 82%  
387 4% 79%  
388 3% 75%  
389 3% 72%  
390 6% 69%  
391 7% 63%  
392 3% 56%  
393 5% 52% Median
394 4% 48%  
395 4% 44%  
396 6% 40%  
397 5% 35%  
398 5% 30%  
399 3% 25%  
400 4% 22%  
401 3% 18%  
402 3% 16%  
403 2% 13%  
404 2% 10%  
405 1.2% 8%  
406 2% 7%  
407 1.4% 5%  
408 1.0% 4%  
409 0.9% 3%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0.4% 2%  
412 0.4% 1.3%  
413 0.3% 0.9%  
414 0.2% 0.6%  
415 0.1% 0.5%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0.1% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.7% Majority
356 0.1% 99.6%  
357 0.3% 99.4%  
358 0.4% 99.2%  
359 0.4% 98.8%  
360 0.7% 98%  
361 0.6% 98%  
362 1.0% 97%  
363 0.8% 96%  
364 1.4% 95%  
365 1.5% 94%  
366 2% 92%  
367 2% 90%  
368 3% 89%  
369 3% 86%  
370 4% 83%  
371 3% 79%  
372 4% 76%  
373 6% 72%  
374 5% 66%  
375 4% 61%  
376 4% 57%  
377 5% 53%  
378 5% 48% Median
379 4% 43%  
380 4% 39%  
381 6% 36%  
382 4% 30%  
383 4% 26%  
384 3% 22%  
385 4% 19%  
386 2% 15%  
387 3% 13%  
388 2% 11%  
389 2% 8%  
390 1.3% 7%  
391 1.2% 5%  
392 1.1% 4%  
393 0.8% 3%  
394 0.5% 2%  
395 0.4% 2%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.2% 1.0%  
398 0.2% 0.8%  
399 0.1% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.2% 99.6%  
333 0.2% 99.4%  
334 0.3% 99.3%  
335 0.4% 98.9%  
336 0.4% 98.6%  
337 0.5% 98%  
338 0.8% 98%  
339 0.7% 97%  
340 0.9% 96%  
341 1.2% 95%  
342 2% 94%  
343 2% 92%  
344 2% 90%  
345 3% 88%  
346 4% 85%  
347 4% 82%  
348 4% 78%  
349 3% 74%  
350 4% 71%  
351 3% 67%  
352 3% 64%  
353 5% 60%  
354 5% 55% Median
355 5% 50% Majority
356 5% 45%  
357 5% 40%  
358 4% 35%  
359 6% 31%  
360 4% 24%  
361 3% 20%  
362 2% 17%  
363 2% 16%  
364 2% 13%  
365 2% 11%  
366 2% 9%  
367 2% 7%  
368 1.3% 6%  
369 0.9% 4%  
370 1.0% 3%  
371 0.7% 2%  
372 0.4% 2%  
373 0.3% 1.1%  
374 0.3% 0.8%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.2% 99.6%  
326 0.2% 99.4%  
327 0.3% 99.2%  
328 0.3% 99.0%  
329 0.6% 98.6%  
330 0.5% 98%  
331 1.1% 98%  
332 1.1% 96%  
333 0.9% 95%  
334 2% 94%  
335 2% 92%  
336 2% 91%  
337 2% 89%  
338 3% 87%  
339 2% 83%  
340 3% 81%  
341 4% 77%  
342 4% 73%  
343 6% 69%  
344 3% 64%  
345 5% 60%  
346 3% 56%  
347 5% 52%  
348 5% 47% Median
349 6% 42%  
350 5% 36%  
351 3% 31%  
352 4% 28%  
353 3% 24%  
354 3% 20%  
355 2% 17% Majority
356 3% 15%  
357 2% 11%  
358 2% 10%  
359 2% 8%  
360 0.8% 6%  
361 1.1% 5%  
362 0.9% 4%  
363 0.7% 3%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.6% 2%  
366 0.2% 1.0%  
367 0.2% 0.8%  
368 0.2% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.6%  
303 0.2% 99.4%  
304 0.4% 99.2%  
305 0.3% 98.9%  
306 0.6% 98.6%  
307 0.4% 98%  
308 1.1% 98%  
309 0.9% 97%  
310 1.1% 96%  
311 2% 95%  
312 2% 93%  
313 3% 91%  
314 2% 88%  
315 4% 86%  
316 2% 82%  
317 4% 80%  
318 3% 76%  
319 3% 73%  
320 6% 70%  
321 3% 64%  
322 5% 60%  
323 5% 56%  
324 6% 51% Median
325 3% 44%  
326 4% 41% Last Result
327 6% 37%  
328 4% 31%  
329 4% 27%  
330 3% 23%  
331 4% 19%  
332 2% 16%  
333 3% 14%  
334 2% 11%  
335 2% 9%  
336 2% 7%  
337 1.2% 6%  
338 1.0% 4%  
339 0.6% 3%  
340 0.7% 3%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.1%  
344 0.3% 0.8%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.2% 99.5%  
296 0.3% 99.4%  
297 0.4% 99.1%  
298 0.4% 98.7%  
299 0.4% 98%  
300 0.9% 98%  
301 1.0% 97%  
302 1.4% 96%  
303 2% 95%  
304 1.2% 93%  
305 2% 92%  
306 2% 90%  
307 3% 87%  
308 3% 84%  
309 4% 82%  
310 3% 78%  
311 5% 75%  
312 5% 70%  
313 6% 65%  
314 4% 60%  
315 4% 56%  
316 5% 52% Median
317 3% 48%  
318 7% 44%  
319 6% 37%  
320 3% 31%  
321 3% 28%  
322 4% 25%  
323 4% 21%  
324 3% 18%  
325 3% 15%  
326 2% 12%  
327 2% 10%  
328 2% 8%  
329 1.3% 6%  
330 1.3% 5%  
331 0.7% 4%  
332 0.7% 3%  
333 0.6% 2%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.4% 1.4%  
336 0.3% 0.9%  
337 0.2% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.2% 99.5%  
281 0.2% 99.3%  
282 0.3% 99.1%  
283 0.8% 98.8%  
284 0.4% 98%  
285 0.8% 98%  
286 0.8% 97%  
287 2% 96%  
288 1.4% 94%  
289 2% 93%  
290 2% 91%  
291 2% 89%  
292 3% 87%  
293 3% 84%  
294 5% 82%  
295 3% 77%  
296 5% 74%  
297 4% 69%  
298 4% 65%  
299 4% 60%  
300 6% 57%  
301 6% 50% Median
302 3% 44%  
303 5% 41%  
304 5% 36%  
305 4% 32%  
306 4% 28%  
307 4% 24%  
308 3% 20%  
309 3% 17%  
310 2% 14%  
311 3% 12%  
312 3% 9%  
313 0.8% 7%  
314 1.4% 6%  
315 1.1% 5%  
316 1.0% 3%  
317 0.5% 3%  
318 0.6% 2%  
319 0.3% 1.4%  
320 0.2% 1.1%  
321 0.3% 0.8%  
322 0.1% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.2% 99.6%  
242 0.2% 99.5%  
243 0.3% 99.3%  
244 0.6% 98.9%  
245 0.6% 98%  
246 0.7% 98%  
247 0.8% 97%  
248 1.0% 96%  
249 1.5% 95%  
250 2% 94%  
251 2% 92%  
252 2% 90%  
253 2% 87%  
254 3% 85%  
255 3% 82%  
256 4% 79%  
257 5% 75%  
258 6% 71%  
259 5% 65%  
260 4% 60%  
261 4% 56%  
262 4% 52% Median
263 5% 48%  
264 5% 42%  
265 7% 37%  
266 4% 30%  
267 4% 26%  
268 3% 23%  
269 3% 20%  
270 3% 17%  
271 3% 14%  
272 2% 11%  
273 1.4% 8%  
274 1.5% 7%  
275 1.2% 5%  
276 0.8% 4%  
277 0.9% 3%  
278 0.6% 2%  
279 0.5% 2%  
280 0.3% 1.4%  
281 0.3% 1.1%  
282 0.2% 0.7%  
283 0.2% 0.6%  
284 0.1% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0.1% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.8%  
188 0.2% 99.7%  
189 0.3% 99.5%  
190 0.3% 99.2%  
191 0.4% 98.9%  
192 0.7% 98.5%  
193 0.5% 98%  
194 1.1% 97%  
195 1.1% 96%  
196 1.4% 95%  
197 2% 94%  
198 2% 92%  
199 3% 90%  
200 3% 87%  
201 4% 84%  
202 3% 81%  
203 5% 78%  
204 4% 73%  
205 5% 69%  
206 5% 63%  
207 5% 58%  
208 4% 53% Median
209 7% 49%  
210 5% 42%  
211 6% 38%  
212 5% 32%  
213 4% 28%  
214 3% 24%  
215 5% 20%  
216 2% 16%  
217 3% 13%  
218 2% 10%  
219 2% 8%  
220 1.1% 6%  
221 1.4% 5%  
222 0.8% 3%  
223 0.8% 3%  
224 0.4% 2%  
225 0.3% 1.4%  
226 0.3% 1.0%  
227 0.2% 0.7%  
228 0.1% 0.6%  
229 0.1% 0.4%  
230 0.1% 0.3%  
231 0.1% 0.2%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1% Last Result
234 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.3% 99.6%  
153 0.3% 99.3%  
154 0.4% 99.1%  
155 0.9% 98.6%  
156 0.7% 98%  
157 0.8% 97%  
158 2% 96%  
159 2% 94%  
160 2% 93%  
161 3% 91%  
162 3% 88%  
163 6% 85%  
164 3% 80%  
165 3% 77%  
166 7% 74%  
167 4% 66%  
168 6% 62%  
169 5% 56%  
170 5% 51% Median
171 6% 46%  
172 5% 39%  
173 4% 34%  
174 4% 30%  
175 5% 26%  
176 3% 21%  
177 4% 18%  
178 3% 14%  
179 3% 11%  
180 2% 8%  
181 2% 7%  
182 1.3% 5%  
183 1.1% 4%  
184 0.8% 3%  
185 0.4% 2%  
186 0.5% 2%  
187 0.3% 1.1%  
188 0.3% 0.8%  
189 0.1% 0.5%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations