Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 9–12 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 23.0% 21.8–24.2% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.5–18.7% 15.0–19.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.5–18.7% 15.0–19.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.1–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.4–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 176 167–185 165–188 162–190 158–195
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 130 122–138 120–141 118–143 115–147
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 130 122–138 120–141 118–143 115–147
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 96 89–103 87–105 85–107 82–111
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 78–91 76–93 75–95 71–98
Die Linke 69 54 48–59 47–61 46–62 43–65
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 34–43 33–44 32–46 29–49

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0.2% 99.7%  
159 0.3% 99.5%  
160 0.4% 99.2%  
161 0.6% 98.8%  
162 0.9% 98%  
163 0.8% 97%  
164 1.4% 97%  
165 1.2% 95%  
166 3% 94%  
167 3% 91%  
168 3% 89%  
169 3% 85%  
170 4% 82%  
171 5% 78%  
172 5% 73%  
173 5% 68%  
174 5% 63%  
175 4% 58%  
176 7% 54% Median
177 5% 47%  
178 7% 42%  
179 5% 35%  
180 5% 30%  
181 5% 25%  
182 3% 20%  
183 4% 17%  
184 3% 14%  
185 2% 11%  
186 2% 9%  
187 1.2% 7%  
188 2% 5%  
189 0.9% 4%  
190 0.9% 3%  
191 0.5% 2%  
192 0.4% 1.4%  
193 0.3% 1.0%  
194 0.1% 0.6%  
195 0.2% 0.5%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0.1% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.2% 99.7%  
115 0.3% 99.5%  
116 0.5% 99.2%  
117 0.6% 98.7%  
118 0.8% 98%  
119 2% 97%  
120 2% 96%  
121 2% 94%  
122 3% 92%  
123 3% 89%  
124 3% 86%  
125 4% 82%  
126 5% 78%  
127 6% 73%  
128 6% 67%  
129 7% 61%  
130 7% 54% Median
131 6% 48%  
132 5% 41%  
133 6% 36%  
134 5% 31%  
135 5% 25%  
136 4% 20%  
137 4% 16%  
138 3% 12%  
139 2% 10%  
140 2% 7%  
141 1.4% 5%  
142 1.4% 4%  
143 0.7% 3%  
144 0.5% 2%  
145 0.5% 1.3%  
146 0.2% 0.8%  
147 0.2% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.4%  
149 0.1% 0.3%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.9%  
114 0.2% 99.7%  
115 0.2% 99.5%  
116 0.7% 99.3%  
117 0.7% 98.6%  
118 0.4% 98%  
119 2% 97%  
120 2% 96%  
121 1.1% 94%  
122 3% 92%  
123 4% 90%  
124 2% 85%  
125 4% 83%  
126 8% 78%  
127 4% 71%  
128 4% 67%  
129 9% 62%  
130 7% 54% Median
131 3% 47%  
132 9% 44%  
133 6% 35%  
134 3% 29%  
135 5% 25%  
136 6% 20%  
137 2% 15%  
138 3% 12%  
139 3% 9%  
140 1.2% 6%  
141 1.4% 5%  
142 1.4% 4%  
143 0.6% 3%  
144 0.4% 2%  
145 0.6% 1.5%  
146 0.3% 0.9%  
147 0.1% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.4%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.7%  
83 0.5% 99.4%  
84 0.7% 98.9%  
85 1.0% 98%  
86 1.2% 97%  
87 2% 96%  
88 3% 94%  
89 4% 91%  
90 4% 88%  
91 5% 83%  
92 5% 78%  
93 7% 73%  
94 8% 66%  
95 7% 58%  
96 7% 52% Median
97 8% 44%  
98 6% 36%  
99 6% 30%  
100 5% 25%  
101 4% 20%  
102 4% 16%  
103 3% 11%  
104 2% 8%  
105 2% 6%  
106 2% 5%  
107 1.0% 3%  
108 0.7% 2%  
109 0.5% 1.2%  
110 0.2% 0.8%  
111 0.2% 0.5%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.5%  
73 0.6% 99.1%  
74 1.0% 98.5%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 3% 94%  
78 5% 91%  
79 4% 86%  
80 5% 82%  
81 5% 77%  
82 6% 72%  
83 8% 66%  
84 8% 58% Median
85 7% 49%  
86 8% 42%  
87 5% 34%  
88 7% 29%  
89 5% 22%  
90 4% 18%  
91 5% 13%  
92 3% 9%  
93 2% 6%  
94 1.3% 4% Last Result
95 0.8% 3%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.5% 1.4%  
98 0.4% 0.9%  
99 0.2% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.6% 99.5%  
45 1.1% 98.9%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 96%  
48 4% 93%  
49 6% 89%  
50 7% 83%  
51 7% 76%  
52 8% 69%  
53 8% 61%  
54 11% 53% Median
55 7% 42%  
56 9% 36%  
57 7% 27%  
58 6% 20%  
59 4% 14%  
60 4% 9%  
61 2% 6%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.8%  
30 0.5% 99.5%  
31 0.9% 99.0%  
32 2% 98%  
33 5% 96%  
34 6% 91%  
35 7% 85%  
36 7% 78%  
37 11% 71%  
38 13% 60% Median
39 12% 47%  
40 8% 34%  
41 6% 27%  
42 6% 21%  
43 6% 15%  
44 4% 9%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.1% 3% Last Result
47 0.6% 2%  
48 0.5% 1.1%  
49 0.3% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 475 100% 465–484 463–487 460–490 455–494
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 440 100% 430–450 428–453 425–456 420–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 440 100% 431–451 428–453 425–455 420–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 395 100% 384–405 381–408 379–411 374–416
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 356 59% 346–367 343–369 341–372 336–377
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 345 11% 335–355 331–358 329–361 324–365
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 345 12% 334–355 332–358 328–361 324–365
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 314 0% 304–325 301–328 298–330 293–335
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 310 0% 300–321 297–323 295–326 290–331
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 299 0% 289–309 286–312 283–315 279–320
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 260 0% 251–270 248–273 245–276 241–281
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 226 0% 216–236 214–238 212–242 207–246
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 184 0% 175–193 172–196 170–198 166–203

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
450 0% 100%  
451 0.1% 99.9%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0.1% 99.8%  
454 0.1% 99.7%  
455 0.2% 99.6%  
456 0.3% 99.4%  
457 0.3% 99.1%  
458 0.3% 98.8%  
459 0.7% 98%  
460 1.0% 98%  
461 0.7% 97%  
462 1.0% 96%  
463 2% 95%  
464 1.4% 93%  
465 2% 92%  
466 3% 90% Last Result
467 4% 87%  
468 4% 83%  
469 3% 80%  
470 5% 77%  
471 6% 72%  
472 4% 66%  
473 3% 61%  
474 6% 58% Median
475 7% 53%  
476 3% 46%  
477 5% 42%  
478 4% 37%  
479 6% 34%  
480 4% 27%  
481 3% 23%  
482 4% 20%  
483 3% 16%  
484 3% 13%  
485 2% 10%  
486 2% 8%  
487 2% 6%  
488 1.0% 4%  
489 0.8% 3%  
490 0.7% 3%  
491 0.7% 2%  
492 0.3% 1.2%  
493 0.2% 0.9%  
494 0.3% 0.8%  
495 0.1% 0.4%  
496 0.1% 0.3%  
497 0.1% 0.2%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.7%  
420 0.1% 99.6%  
421 0.3% 99.5%  
422 0.4% 99.2%  
423 0.5% 98.9%  
424 0.4% 98%  
425 0.8% 98%  
426 1.1% 97%  
427 0.9% 96%  
428 2% 95%  
429 2% 94%  
430 2% 92%  
431 2% 90%  
432 3% 87%  
433 4% 85%  
434 3% 81%  
435 3% 78%  
436 5% 75%  
437 5% 70%  
438 5% 65%  
439 6% 60%  
440 5% 54% Median
441 5% 49%  
442 4% 44%  
443 6% 40%  
444 4% 34%  
445 4% 30%  
446 4% 26%  
447 4% 22%  
448 2% 18%  
449 3% 16%  
450 2% 12%  
451 2% 10%  
452 1.3% 8%  
453 2% 7%  
454 1.1% 5%  
455 1.0% 4%  
456 0.7% 3%  
457 0.6% 2%  
458 0.5% 1.5%  
459 0.3% 1.0%  
460 0.2% 0.7%  
461 0.1% 0.5%  
462 0.1% 0.3%  
463 0.1% 0.2%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.7%  
420 0.3% 99.6%  
421 0.2% 99.3%  
422 0.4% 99.1%  
423 0.3% 98.7%  
424 0.7% 98%  
425 0.5% 98%  
426 0.7% 97%  
427 1.0% 97%  
428 1.1% 96%  
429 2% 94%  
430 2% 93%  
431 3% 91%  
432 3% 88%  
433 4% 85%  
434 5% 81%  
435 6% 77%  
436 5% 71%  
437 5% 66%  
438 4% 61%  
439 5% 57%  
440 4% 52% Median
441 4% 48%  
442 4% 44%  
443 4% 40%  
444 4% 35%  
445 4% 32%  
446 4% 28%  
447 3% 24%  
448 4% 20%  
449 3% 16%  
450 3% 13%  
451 3% 11%  
452 1.4% 7%  
453 2% 6%  
454 1.2% 4%  
455 0.8% 3%  
456 0.7% 2%  
457 0.3% 2%  
458 0.4% 1.4%  
459 0.3% 1.0%  
460 0.2% 0.7%  
461 0.1% 0.5%  
462 0.1% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.7%  
374 0.1% 99.6%  
375 0.3% 99.5%  
376 0.4% 99.1%  
377 0.4% 98.7%  
378 0.5% 98%  
379 0.8% 98%  
380 0.8% 97%  
381 1.4% 96%  
382 1.4% 95%  
383 2% 93%  
384 2% 91%  
385 3% 90%  
386 2% 87%  
387 4% 85%  
388 3% 81%  
389 4% 77%  
390 4% 73%  
391 4% 69%  
392 4% 65%  
393 6% 61%  
394 4% 55% Median
395 6% 51%  
396 4% 45%  
397 4% 41%  
398 5% 38%  
399 5% 33%  
400 3% 27%  
401 5% 24%  
402 3% 19%  
403 2% 17%  
404 4% 14%  
405 2% 11%  
406 2% 9%  
407 2% 7%  
408 0.9% 5%  
409 0.8% 4%  
410 0.9% 3%  
411 0.7% 3%  
412 0.5% 2%  
413 0.4% 1.3%  
414 0.2% 0.9%  
415 0.2% 0.7%  
416 0.2% 0.5%  
417 0.1% 0.3%  
418 0.1% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.8%  
334 0.1% 99.7%  
335 0.1% 99.6%  
336 0.2% 99.5%  
337 0.3% 99.3%  
338 0.4% 99.0%  
339 0.4% 98.7%  
340 0.6% 98%  
341 1.0% 98%  
342 1.3% 97%  
343 1.3% 95%  
344 1.2% 94%  
345 2% 93%  
346 2% 90%  
347 2% 89%  
348 3% 86%  
349 3% 84%  
350 4% 81%  
351 4% 77%  
352 4% 73%  
353 5% 69%  
354 5% 64%  
355 4% 59% Majority
356 6% 55% Median
357 5% 48%  
358 6% 44%  
359 5% 38%  
360 3% 33%  
361 5% 31%  
362 3% 26%  
363 4% 23%  
364 3% 19%  
365 3% 16%  
366 2% 13%  
367 4% 11%  
368 1.4% 8%  
369 2% 6%  
370 1.1% 5%  
371 0.9% 4%  
372 0.6% 3%  
373 0.6% 2%  
374 0.5% 2%  
375 0.3% 1.2%  
376 0.2% 0.9%  
377 0.2% 0.7%  
378 0.1% 0.5%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0.2% 99.6%  
325 0.3% 99.3%  
326 0.3% 99.1%  
327 0.4% 98.7%  
328 0.5% 98%  
329 0.7% 98%  
330 1.1% 97%  
331 2% 96%  
332 1.3% 94%  
333 1.2% 93%  
334 1.4% 92%  
335 4% 91%  
336 3% 87%  
337 4% 84%  
338 3% 79%  
339 3% 76%  
340 3% 74%  
341 5% 70%  
342 6% 65%  
343 4% 59%  
344 5% 55% Median
345 5% 50%  
346 5% 46%  
347 4% 41%  
348 5% 37%  
349 5% 32%  
350 3% 27%  
351 5% 24%  
352 3% 19%  
353 2% 16%  
354 2% 14%  
355 2% 11% Majority
356 3% 9%  
357 1.5% 7%  
358 1.2% 5%  
359 0.8% 4%  
360 0.5% 3%  
361 0.6% 3%  
362 0.9% 2%  
363 0.4% 1.3%  
364 0.2% 0.9%  
365 0.2% 0.6%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0.1% 99.6%  
325 0.2% 99.4%  
326 0.4% 99.2%  
327 0.5% 98.8%  
328 0.9% 98%  
329 0.7% 97%  
330 0.7% 97%  
331 0.9% 96%  
332 1.4% 95%  
333 2% 94%  
334 2% 92%  
335 4% 90%  
336 3% 86%  
337 2% 83%  
338 3% 81%  
339 3% 78%  
340 3% 75%  
341 7% 72%  
342 6% 65%  
343 4% 58%  
344 4% 55% Median
345 4% 51%  
346 4% 47%  
347 5% 42%  
348 6% 37%  
349 6% 31%  
350 3% 25%  
351 3% 23%  
352 3% 20%  
353 3% 17%  
354 2% 14%  
355 3% 12% Majority
356 2% 9%  
357 1.2% 7%  
358 1.3% 6%  
359 0.8% 4%  
360 0.8% 3%  
361 0.8% 3%  
362 0.6% 2%  
363 0.4% 1.3%  
364 0.2% 0.9%  
365 0.2% 0.6%  
366 0.1% 0.5%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.2% 99.7%  
294 0.2% 99.5%  
295 0.2% 99.3%  
296 0.4% 99.1%  
297 0.5% 98.7%  
298 0.7% 98%  
299 0.9% 97%  
300 0.8% 97%  
301 0.9% 96%  
302 2% 95%  
303 2% 93%  
304 2% 91%  
305 4% 89%  
306 2% 86%  
307 3% 83%  
308 5% 81%  
309 3% 76%  
310 5% 73%  
311 5% 67%  
312 4% 62%  
313 4% 59%  
314 6% 55% Median
315 4% 49%  
316 6% 45%  
317 4% 39%  
318 4% 35%  
319 4% 31%  
320 4% 27%  
321 3% 23%  
322 4% 19%  
323 2% 15%  
324 3% 13%  
325 2% 10%  
326 2% 9%  
327 1.4% 7%  
328 1.4% 5%  
329 0.8% 4%  
330 0.8% 3%  
331 0.5% 2%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.4% 1.3%  
334 0.3% 0.9%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.2% 99.5%  
291 0.3% 99.4%  
292 0.4% 99.1%  
293 0.6% 98.7%  
294 0.5% 98%  
295 0.8% 98%  
296 1.4% 97%  
297 1.0% 96%  
298 1.2% 95%  
299 3% 93%  
300 2% 91%  
301 2% 89%  
302 4% 86%  
303 2% 82%  
304 4% 80%  
305 4% 76%  
306 4% 71%  
307 4% 68%  
308 6% 64%  
309 4% 57%  
310 5% 53% Median
311 5% 48%  
312 5% 42%  
313 3% 38%  
314 4% 34%  
315 5% 30%  
316 3% 25%  
317 4% 22%  
318 4% 18%  
319 2% 15%  
320 3% 13%  
321 2% 10%  
322 1.2% 8%  
323 2% 6%  
324 1.0% 5%  
325 0.8% 4%  
326 0.7% 3% Last Result
327 0.7% 2%  
328 0.3% 1.5%  
329 0.4% 1.2%  
330 0.2% 0.8%  
331 0.1% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.2% 99.5%  
280 0.4% 99.3%  
281 0.3% 98.9%  
282 0.6% 98.5%  
283 0.6% 98%  
284 1.0% 97%  
285 0.8% 96%  
286 1.1% 96%  
287 1.5% 94%  
288 2% 93%  
289 4% 90%  
290 3% 87%  
291 3% 84%  
292 3% 81%  
293 4% 79%  
294 4% 74%  
295 4% 71%  
296 5% 67%  
297 4% 62%  
298 6% 58% Median
299 6% 52%  
300 5% 46%  
301 3% 40%  
302 4% 37%  
303 5% 33%  
304 4% 28%  
305 4% 24%  
306 3% 20%  
307 3% 17%  
308 2% 14%  
309 3% 12%  
310 2% 9%  
311 1.0% 7%  
312 2% 6%  
313 1.0% 5%  
314 1.0% 4%  
315 0.8% 3%  
316 0.4% 2%  
317 0.4% 1.4%  
318 0.3% 1.0%  
319 0.2% 0.8%  
320 0.2% 0.5%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0.1% 0.2%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.6%  
241 0.2% 99.5%  
242 0.3% 99.3%  
243 0.3% 99.0%  
244 0.7% 98.7%  
245 0.6% 98%  
246 0.9% 97%  
247 1.1% 96%  
248 1.4% 95%  
249 2% 94%  
250 2% 92%  
251 3% 91%  
252 2% 87%  
253 3% 85%  
254 4% 82%  
255 3% 78%  
256 4% 74%  
257 4% 70%  
258 7% 66%  
259 4% 60%  
260 7% 55% Median
261 4% 49%  
262 5% 45%  
263 4% 40%  
264 5% 36%  
265 5% 31%  
266 5% 27%  
267 3% 22%  
268 4% 19%  
269 2% 15%  
270 3% 12%  
271 2% 10%  
272 1.2% 8%  
273 2% 7%  
274 1.1% 5%  
275 1.0% 4%  
276 0.6% 3%  
277 0.6% 2%  
278 0.4% 1.5%  
279 0.4% 1.1%  
280 0.2% 0.7%  
281 0.2% 0.5%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0.1% 99.9%  
205 0.2% 99.8%  
206 0.2% 99.7%  
207 0.1% 99.5%  
208 0.4% 99.4%  
209 0.3% 99.0%  
210 0.3% 98.7%  
211 0.4% 98%  
212 1.2% 98%  
213 1.0% 97%  
214 1.3% 96%  
215 2% 95%  
216 4% 92%  
217 3% 88%  
218 2% 85%  
219 2% 83%  
220 3% 81%  
221 3% 78%  
222 3% 76%  
223 7% 73%  
224 8% 66%  
225 5% 57%  
226 5% 52% Median
227 8% 47%  
228 5% 38%  
229 2% 33%  
230 3% 31%  
231 3% 29%  
232 4% 25%  
233 2% 22% Last Result
234 5% 19%  
235 4% 14%  
236 3% 10%  
237 1.2% 7%  
238 2% 6%  
239 0.9% 4%  
240 0.5% 3%  
241 0.3% 3%  
242 0.7% 3%  
243 0.5% 2%  
244 0.4% 1.3%  
245 0.2% 0.9%  
246 0.3% 0.7%  
247 0.2% 0.3%  
248 0.1% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.2% 99.6%  
167 0.3% 99.4%  
168 0.4% 99.1%  
169 0.5% 98.7%  
170 0.9% 98%  
171 1.1% 97%  
172 1.3% 96%  
173 2% 95%  
174 2% 93%  
175 3% 91%  
176 4% 88%  
177 3% 85%  
178 5% 82%  
179 5% 77%  
180 4% 72%  
181 4% 69%  
182 5% 64%  
183 5% 60%  
184 6% 55% Median
185 6% 48%  
186 6% 42%  
187 4% 36%  
188 5% 32%  
189 4% 27%  
190 4% 23%  
191 3% 19%  
192 3% 15%  
193 3% 12%  
194 3% 10%  
195 2% 7%  
196 1.5% 5%  
197 1.0% 4%  
198 0.8% 3%  
199 0.6% 2%  
200 0.4% 1.5%  
201 0.3% 1.0%  
202 0.2% 0.7%  
203 0.2% 0.5%  
204 0.1% 0.4%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations