Opinion Poll by Kantar, 7–13 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.5–24.2% 21.1–24.7% 20.7–25.0% 20.1–25.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.7–21.4% 18.4–21.8% 18.0–22.1% 17.5–22.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.5–16.6% 13.3–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.0–13.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.0–13.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.5–6.0% 4.4–6.3% 4.2–6.5% 3.9–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 173 163–184 161–188 158–190 153–195
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 152 143–162 140–165 137–168 133–173
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 105–123 103–126 101–128 97–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 76–92 74–94 72–96 69–100
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 84 76–92 74–94 72–96 69–100
Die Linke 69 62 55–68 53–71 51–72 48–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 35–46 33–47 32–49 30–52

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.2% 99.6%  
154 0.1% 99.4%  
155 0.4% 99.3%  
156 0.3% 98.8%  
157 0.8% 98.6%  
158 0.4% 98%  
159 1.1% 97%  
160 0.9% 96%  
161 2% 95%  
162 1.3% 94%  
163 3% 92%  
164 2% 89%  
165 5% 87%  
166 2% 83%  
167 6% 81%  
168 3% 75%  
169 5% 72%  
170 5% 67%  
171 5% 62%  
172 4% 56%  
173 6% 52% Median
174 3% 46%  
175 6% 42%  
176 4% 37%  
177 4% 33%  
178 4% 29%  
179 4% 25%  
180 3% 22%  
181 2% 19%  
182 3% 17%  
183 2% 14%  
184 2% 12%  
185 2% 10%  
186 1.5% 8%  
187 1.1% 6%  
188 1.2% 5%  
189 0.8% 4%  
190 0.9% 3%  
191 0.7% 2%  
192 0.5% 2%  
193 0.2% 1.1%  
194 0.4% 0.9%  
195 0.1% 0.6%  
196 0.1% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.2% 99.7%  
133 0.3% 99.6%  
134 0.3% 99.3%  
135 0.5% 99.0%  
136 0.5% 98.5%  
137 0.8% 98%  
138 0.7% 97%  
139 1.5% 97%  
140 2% 95%  
141 2% 93%  
142 2% 92%  
143 3% 90%  
144 3% 88%  
145 3% 85%  
146 5% 81%  
147 4% 77%  
148 4% 73%  
149 5% 69%  
150 5% 64%  
151 6% 59%  
152 6% 53% Median
153 4% 47%  
154 5% 43%  
155 5% 38%  
156 4% 33%  
157 4% 29%  
158 5% 25%  
159 2% 20%  
160 3% 18%  
161 3% 15%  
162 3% 12%  
163 2% 10%  
164 2% 8%  
165 1.0% 6%  
166 0.9% 5%  
167 1.0% 4%  
168 0.5% 3%  
169 0.7% 2%  
170 0.3% 1.4%  
171 0.2% 1.0%  
172 0.2% 0.8%  
173 0.2% 0.6%  
174 0.1% 0.4%  
175 0.1% 0.3%  
176 0% 0.2%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.8%  
97 0.3% 99.6%  
98 0.4% 99.3%  
99 0.5% 98.9%  
100 0.6% 98%  
101 0.9% 98%  
102 1.1% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 2% 94%  
105 3% 92%  
106 3% 89%  
107 3% 86%  
108 5% 83%  
109 3% 78%  
110 5% 75%  
111 4% 70%  
112 6% 66%  
113 8% 60%  
114 6% 52% Median
115 7% 46%  
116 3% 39%  
117 5% 36%  
118 3% 31%  
119 5% 27%  
120 3% 22%  
121 4% 19%  
122 4% 15%  
123 2% 11%  
124 2% 9%  
125 1.4% 7%  
126 1.2% 5%  
127 0.9% 4%  
128 0.8% 3%  
129 0.8% 2%  
130 0.6% 2%  
131 0.4% 1.1%  
132 0.2% 0.7%  
133 0.2% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.5%  
70 0.4% 99.2%  
71 0.6% 98.8%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 94%  
76 2% 91%  
77 3% 89%  
78 5% 86%  
79 6% 81%  
80 5% 75%  
81 6% 70%  
82 6% 64%  
83 5% 59%  
84 7% 53% Median
85 8% 46%  
86 6% 38%  
87 4% 32%  
88 5% 28%  
89 4% 23%  
90 4% 19%  
91 4% 15%  
92 3% 11%  
93 2% 7%  
94 1.2% 6% Last Result
95 1.2% 4%  
96 1.1% 3%  
97 0.7% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.4%  
99 0.3% 1.0%  
100 0.2% 0.6%  
101 0.2% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.4% 99.5%  
70 0.4% 99.2%  
71 0.7% 98.8%  
72 0.9% 98%  
73 1.2% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 94%  
76 3% 92%  
77 4% 89%  
78 5% 85%  
79 6% 80%  
80 5% 74% Last Result
81 5% 69%  
82 4% 63%  
83 7% 59%  
84 7% 52% Median
85 7% 45%  
86 7% 39%  
87 7% 31%  
88 4% 25%  
89 4% 21%  
90 3% 17%  
91 2% 14%  
92 2% 11%  
93 2% 9%  
94 2% 7%  
95 1.5% 5%  
96 1.1% 3%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.4%  
99 0.3% 1.0%  
100 0.2% 0.7%  
101 0.2% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.3% 99.4%  
50 0.5% 99.1%  
51 1.3% 98.6%  
52 1.4% 97%  
53 2% 96%  
54 4% 94%  
55 3% 90%  
56 5% 87%  
57 6% 82%  
58 3% 76%  
59 7% 72%  
60 10% 65%  
61 4% 55%  
62 9% 51% Median
63 8% 42%  
64 7% 34%  
65 8% 27%  
66 2% 20%  
67 4% 17%  
68 5% 13%  
69 1.2% 9% Last Result
70 2% 7%  
71 2% 5%  
72 1.2% 3%  
73 0.8% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.3%  
75 0.4% 0.9%  
76 0.3% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.5% 99.5%  
31 1.0% 99.0%  
32 2% 98%  
33 2% 97%  
34 4% 94%  
35 5% 91%  
36 6% 86%  
37 7% 80%  
38 8% 73%  
39 8% 65%  
40 10% 56% Median
41 9% 47%  
42 10% 38%  
43 7% 28%  
44 6% 22%  
45 5% 16%  
46 3% 11% Last Result
47 3% 8%  
48 2% 5%  
49 1.2% 3%  
50 0.7% 2%  
51 0.5% 1.2%  
52 0.3% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 480 100% 469–491 465–495 463–498 457–503
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 449 100% 438–461 435–465 431–467 426–473
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 411 100% 399–423 396–427 393–430 387–435
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 382 99.7% 369–393 365–397 363–399 357–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 366 89% 354–378 350–381 347–385 342–390
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 350 32% 338–363 334–366 332–369 326–374
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 327 0.3% 316–340 312–344 310–346 304–352
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 327 0.2% 315–340 312–344 309–346 304–352
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 297 0% 285–309 282–313 279–316 273–322
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 297 0% 286–309 282–313 279–316 274–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 266 0% 255–278 251–281 248–284 243–290
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 198 0% 187–209 184–212 181–215 177–220
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 165–186 162–189 160–192 155–197

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
450 0% 100%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0.1% 99.9%  
454 0.1% 99.8%  
455 0.1% 99.8%  
456 0.1% 99.7%  
457 0.1% 99.6%  
458 0.2% 99.5%  
459 0.3% 99.3%  
460 0.3% 98.9%  
461 0.5% 98.7%  
462 0.5% 98%  
463 0.5% 98%  
464 1.0% 97%  
465 1.2% 96%  
466 1.0% 95% Last Result
467 2% 94%  
468 2% 92%  
469 2% 90%  
470 3% 88%  
471 2% 85%  
472 3% 83%  
473 4% 80%  
474 2% 75%  
475 5% 73%  
476 5% 68%  
477 3% 64%  
478 5% 60%  
479 5% 56% Median
480 3% 51%  
481 5% 47%  
482 4% 42%  
483 3% 38%  
484 5% 35%  
485 4% 29%  
486 3% 26%  
487 4% 23%  
488 3% 20%  
489 3% 17%  
490 3% 14%  
491 2% 12%  
492 2% 10%  
493 1.4% 8%  
494 1.2% 7%  
495 1.5% 5%  
496 0.8% 4%  
497 0.5% 3%  
498 0.8% 3%  
499 0.4% 2%  
500 0.4% 1.4%  
501 0.3% 1.1%  
502 0.2% 0.7%  
503 0.2% 0.6%  
504 0.1% 0.4%  
505 0.1% 0.3%  
506 0.1% 0.2%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.9%  
424 0.1% 99.8%  
425 0.1% 99.7%  
426 0.2% 99.5%  
427 0.1% 99.4%  
428 0.2% 99.2%  
429 0.3% 99.1%  
430 0.7% 98.8%  
431 0.9% 98%  
432 0.6% 97%  
433 0.8% 97%  
434 0.6% 96%  
435 1.1% 95%  
436 1.4% 94%  
437 2% 93%  
438 2% 91%  
439 2% 89%  
440 3% 87%  
441 3% 83%  
442 5% 81%  
443 2% 76%  
444 3% 74%  
445 3% 71%  
446 4% 69%  
447 3% 64%  
448 6% 61%  
449 5% 55% Median
450 5% 49%  
451 3% 44%  
452 3% 41%  
453 3% 38%  
454 3% 34%  
455 5% 31%  
456 4% 26%  
457 4% 23%  
458 3% 19%  
459 2% 16%  
460 3% 14%  
461 2% 11%  
462 2% 9%  
463 1.0% 7%  
464 1.1% 6%  
465 1.1% 5%  
466 1.1% 4%  
467 0.9% 3%  
468 0.4% 2%  
469 0.4% 2%  
470 0.3% 1.4%  
471 0.2% 1.1%  
472 0.3% 0.9%  
473 0.2% 0.6%  
474 0.2% 0.5%  
475 0.1% 0.3%  
476 0.1% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.7%  
387 0.1% 99.6%  
388 0.1% 99.5%  
389 0.3% 99.3%  
390 0.3% 99.0%  
391 0.4% 98.8%  
392 0.5% 98%  
393 0.6% 98%  
394 0.8% 97%  
395 0.9% 96%  
396 1.0% 96%  
397 1.1% 95%  
398 2% 93%  
399 2% 92%  
400 2% 90%  
401 2% 87%  
402 3% 85%  
403 3% 83%  
404 3% 80%  
405 4% 77%  
406 3% 73%  
407 5% 70%  
408 3% 66%  
409 5% 62%  
410 4% 58%  
411 6% 54% Median
412 3% 48%  
413 4% 45%  
414 4% 41%  
415 4% 37%  
416 3% 33%  
417 4% 29%  
418 3% 25%  
419 3% 22%  
420 3% 19%  
421 2% 17%  
422 3% 14%  
423 2% 12%  
424 2% 10%  
425 2% 8%  
426 1.4% 7%  
427 0.8% 5%  
428 1.1% 5%  
429 0.7% 3%  
430 0.7% 3%  
431 0.5% 2%  
432 0.4% 2%  
433 0.4% 1.3%  
434 0.2% 0.9%  
435 0.2% 0.7%  
436 0.1% 0.5%  
437 0.1% 0.4%  
438 0.1% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0.1% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.7% Majority
356 0.1% 99.7%  
357 0.3% 99.6%  
358 0.1% 99.3%  
359 0.3% 99.2%  
360 0.5% 98.8%  
361 0.2% 98%  
362 0.7% 98%  
363 0.9% 98%  
364 0.4% 97%  
365 1.3% 96%  
366 1.2% 95%  
367 0.5% 94%  
368 2% 93%  
369 2% 91%  
370 2% 89%  
371 4% 87%  
372 1.3% 84%  
373 2% 82%  
374 5% 81%  
375 2% 75%  
376 4% 74%  
377 5% 69%  
378 1.4% 64%  
379 5% 63%  
380 6% 58%  
381 1.3% 52% Median
382 9% 50%  
383 3% 42%  
384 2% 39%  
385 6% 37%  
386 3% 31%  
387 2% 28%  
388 6% 26%  
389 2% 20%  
390 2% 19%  
391 4% 17%  
392 0.9% 13%  
393 3% 12%  
394 2% 9%  
395 0.5% 7%  
396 2% 7%  
397 0.9% 5%  
398 0.6% 4%  
399 1.2% 4%  
400 0.4% 2%  
401 0.3% 2%  
402 0.6% 2%  
403 0.2% 1.1%  
404 0.2% 0.9%  
405 0.2% 0.6%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.4%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0.1% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.7%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0.2% 99.5%  
343 0.1% 99.3%  
344 0.3% 99.1%  
345 0.3% 98.9%  
346 0.6% 98.6%  
347 0.8% 98%  
348 0.7% 97%  
349 0.9% 96%  
350 0.9% 96%  
351 1.2% 95%  
352 0.9% 93%  
353 2% 92%  
354 2% 91%  
355 2% 89% Majority
356 3% 87%  
357 3% 83%  
358 4% 81%  
359 3% 77%  
360 4% 74%  
361 3% 70%  
362 3% 67%  
363 4% 64%  
364 3% 60%  
365 5% 57% Median
366 5% 52%  
367 4% 47%  
368 4% 43%  
369 5% 38%  
370 4% 34%  
371 3% 30%  
372 3% 27%  
373 3% 24%  
374 3% 22%  
375 4% 19%  
376 2% 15%  
377 2% 13%  
378 2% 11%  
379 1.4% 8%  
380 1.1% 7%  
381 0.9% 6%  
382 0.7% 5%  
383 0.7% 4%  
384 0.7% 3%  
385 0.6% 3%  
386 0.7% 2%  
387 0.4% 2%  
388 0.3% 1.1%  
389 0.2% 0.8%  
390 0.2% 0.6%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.2% 99.6%  
327 0.2% 99.4%  
328 0.2% 99.2%  
329 0.4% 99.0%  
330 0.4% 98.6%  
331 0.5% 98%  
332 0.5% 98%  
333 1.2% 97%  
334 1.1% 96%  
335 0.8% 95%  
336 2% 94%  
337 2% 93%  
338 1.2% 91%  
339 3% 90%  
340 3% 87%  
341 2% 84%  
342 3% 82%  
343 3% 79%  
344 3% 76%  
345 2% 73%  
346 7% 70%  
347 2% 63%  
348 3% 61%  
349 6% 58%  
350 5% 52% Median
351 3% 47%  
352 3% 44%  
353 7% 42%  
354 2% 34%  
355 3% 32% Majority
356 3% 29%  
357 5% 26%  
358 2% 21%  
359 2% 19%  
360 3% 17%  
361 2% 14%  
362 1.4% 12%  
363 2% 10%  
364 2% 8%  
365 0.7% 6%  
366 0.9% 5%  
367 1.1% 4%  
368 0.5% 3%  
369 0.6% 3%  
370 0.6% 2%  
371 0.4% 2%  
372 0.2% 1.1%  
373 0.3% 1.0%  
374 0.2% 0.7%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.2% 99.6%  
305 0.2% 99.4%  
306 0.2% 99.1%  
307 0.6% 98.9%  
308 0.3% 98%  
309 0.4% 98%  
310 1.2% 98%  
311 0.6% 96%  
312 0.9% 96%  
313 2% 95%  
314 0.5% 93%  
315 2% 93%  
316 3% 91%  
317 0.9% 88%  
318 4% 87%  
319 2% 83%  
320 2% 81%  
321 6% 80%  
322 2% 74%  
323 3% 72%  
324 6% 69%  
325 2% 63%  
326 3% 61%  
327 9% 58%  
328 1.3% 50% Median
329 6% 48%  
330 5% 42%  
331 1.4% 37%  
332 5% 36%  
333 4% 31%  
334 2% 26%  
335 5% 25%  
336 2% 19%  
337 1.3% 18%  
338 4% 16%  
339 2% 13%  
340 2% 11%  
341 2% 9%  
342 0.5% 7%  
343 1.2% 6%  
344 1.3% 5%  
345 0.4% 4%  
346 0.9% 3%  
347 0.7% 2%  
348 0.2% 2%  
349 0.5% 2%  
350 0.3% 1.2%  
351 0.1% 0.8%  
352 0.3% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.3% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.2% 99.5%  
305 0.2% 99.3%  
306 0.3% 99.1%  
307 0.4% 98.8%  
308 0.5% 98%  
309 0.6% 98%  
310 0.7% 97%  
311 0.9% 97%  
312 1.1% 96%  
313 1.2% 95%  
314 1.4% 93%  
315 2% 92%  
316 2% 90%  
317 2% 88%  
318 2% 86%  
319 3% 83%  
320 3% 80%  
321 3% 78%  
322 5% 74%  
323 3% 70%  
324 4% 67%  
325 5% 63%  
326 4% 57%  
327 4% 54% Median
328 4% 50%  
329 4% 45%  
330 4% 41%  
331 3% 38%  
332 5% 35%  
333 3% 30%  
334 4% 27%  
335 3% 24%  
336 3% 20%  
337 2% 18%  
338 3% 15%  
339 2% 13%  
340 2% 11%  
341 2% 9%  
342 1.2% 7%  
343 0.9% 6%  
344 1.1% 5%  
345 0.9% 4%  
346 0.7% 3%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.5% 2%  
349 0.3% 1.5%  
350 0.3% 1.2%  
351 0.2% 0.9%  
352 0.2% 0.7%  
353 0.2% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.2% 99.5%  
275 0.2% 99.3%  
276 0.3% 99.0%  
277 0.4% 98.8%  
278 0.5% 98%  
279 0.6% 98%  
280 0.7% 97%  
281 0.6% 97%  
282 1.3% 96%  
283 1.4% 95%  
284 1.2% 93%  
285 2% 92%  
286 2% 90%  
287 2% 88%  
288 2% 86%  
289 4% 83%  
290 3% 80%  
291 3% 77%  
292 3% 74%  
293 4% 70%  
294 5% 67%  
295 4% 62%  
296 5% 58%  
297 5% 53% Median
298 4% 48%  
299 4% 45%  
300 4% 41%  
301 3% 36%  
302 3% 33%  
303 5% 30%  
304 3% 25%  
305 3% 23%  
306 3% 19%  
307 2% 17%  
308 2% 14%  
309 2% 12%  
310 2% 10%  
311 1.5% 8%  
312 1.1% 6%  
313 1.2% 5%  
314 0.9% 4%  
315 0.6% 3%  
316 0.5% 3%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.3% 1.3%  
320 0.3% 1.0%  
321 0.1% 0.7%  
322 0.2% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.3% 99.5%  
275 0.1% 99.3%  
276 0.3% 99.1%  
277 0.5% 98.8%  
278 0.7% 98%  
279 0.5% 98%  
280 0.6% 97%  
281 0.8% 96%  
282 2% 96%  
283 1.4% 94%  
284 1.2% 92%  
285 1.0% 91%  
286 2% 90%  
287 3% 88%  
288 3% 85%  
289 2% 82%  
290 2% 80%  
291 4% 78%  
292 6% 74%  
293 3% 68%  
294 4% 65%  
295 3% 61%  
296 5% 58%  
297 6% 53% Median
298 3% 47%  
299 4% 44%  
300 3% 40%  
301 4% 37%  
302 4% 33%  
303 5% 29%  
304 2% 24%  
305 3% 22%  
306 2% 19%  
307 3% 17%  
308 2% 14%  
309 2% 12%  
310 2% 10%  
311 1.1% 8%  
312 2% 7%  
313 1.2% 5%  
314 0.7% 4%  
315 0.8% 3%  
316 0.5% 3%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.4% 1.2%  
320 0.2% 0.9%  
321 0.1% 0.7%  
322 0.1% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1% Last Result
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.2% 99.6%  
244 0.1% 99.4%  
245 0.3% 99.3%  
246 0.4% 99.0%  
247 0.4% 98.6%  
248 0.7% 98%  
249 0.6% 97%  
250 0.9% 97%  
251 1.0% 96%  
252 1.0% 95%  
253 2% 94%  
254 2% 92%  
255 1.2% 90%  
256 4% 89%  
257 2% 85%  
258 2% 83%  
259 3% 81%  
260 4% 78%  
261 4% 74%  
262 3% 70%  
263 5% 67%  
264 4% 62%  
265 5% 58%  
266 4% 54% Median
267 5% 50%  
268 5% 44%  
269 3% 40%  
270 6% 37%  
271 4% 31%  
272 3% 28%  
273 3% 25%  
274 3% 22%  
275 3% 19%  
276 3% 16%  
277 2% 13%  
278 2% 12%  
279 2% 9%  
280 1.0% 8%  
281 2% 7%  
282 1.0% 5%  
283 0.6% 4%  
284 0.7% 3%  
285 0.6% 2%  
286 0.4% 2%  
287 0.5% 2%  
288 0.2% 1.1%  
289 0.2% 0.9%  
290 0.2% 0.7%  
291 0.1% 0.4%  
292 0.1% 0.4%  
293 0.1% 0.3%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0.1% 99.8%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0.2% 99.5%  
178 0.3% 99.3%  
179 0.4% 99.0%  
180 0.5% 98.6%  
181 0.6% 98%  
182 0.6% 97%  
183 1.3% 97%  
184 1.0% 96%  
185 2% 95%  
186 2% 93%  
187 1.3% 91%  
188 3% 90%  
189 3% 87%  
190 2% 83%  
191 4% 81%  
192 3% 78%  
193 4% 74%  
194 6% 71%  
195 4% 64%  
196 5% 61%  
197 5% 55%  
198 5% 50% Median
199 4% 46%  
200 4% 42%  
201 4% 37%  
202 4% 33%  
203 5% 29%  
204 3% 24%  
205 3% 22%  
206 4% 19%  
207 2% 15%  
208 2% 13%  
209 2% 11%  
210 1.3% 9%  
211 2% 8%  
212 1.5% 6%  
213 0.8% 4%  
214 0.8% 3%  
215 0.6% 3%  
216 0.5% 2%  
217 0.5% 2%  
218 0.3% 1.2%  
219 0.3% 0.9%  
220 0.1% 0.6%  
221 0.1% 0.5%  
222 0.1% 0.3%  
223 0.1% 0.2%  
224 0.1% 0.2%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.2% 99.6%  
156 0.3% 99.4%  
157 0.3% 99.1%  
158 0.5% 98.8%  
159 0.7% 98%  
160 0.5% 98%  
161 1.2% 97%  
162 1.2% 96%  
163 2% 95%  
164 1.3% 93%  
165 2% 92%  
166 3% 90%  
167 3% 87%  
168 3% 84%  
169 4% 81%  
170 5% 77%  
171 4% 73%  
172 4% 68%  
173 5% 65%  
174 4% 60%  
175 7% 56%  
176 4% 49% Median
177 5% 45%  
178 4% 40%  
179 5% 36%  
180 4% 31%  
181 4% 27%  
182 3% 23%  
183 3% 20%  
184 3% 17%  
185 3% 14%  
186 2% 11%  
187 2% 9%  
188 1.5% 7%  
189 1.2% 6%  
190 1.1% 5%  
191 0.9% 4%  
192 0.6% 3%  
193 0.5% 2%  
194 0.5% 2%  
195 0.3% 1.1%  
196 0.2% 0.8%  
197 0.2% 0.6%  
198 0.2% 0.5%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations