Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 13–15 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 24.3% 22.8–26.0% 22.4–26.4% 22.0–26.8% 21.3–27.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.6–21.6% 18.2–22.0% 17.9–22.4% 17.2–23.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.8–16.4% 13.4–16.8% 13.1–17.1% 12.6–17.8%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.8% 7.9–12.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.8% 7.9–12.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.1% 5.9–8.4% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.6% 4.9–6.6% 4.6–6.8% 4.5–7.1% 4.1–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 188 175–198 172–202 169–206 164–212
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 154 143–165 140–168 137–171 133–177
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 116 106–126 103–129 101–131 97–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 77 69–86 67–88 65–90 61–95
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 77 69–85 66–88 65–90 61–95
Die Linke 69 54 47–62 46–64 44–66 41–70
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 44 38–50 36–52 34–54 32–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0.1% 99.7%  
164 0.2% 99.5%  
165 0.2% 99.4%  
166 0.4% 99.1%  
167 0.4% 98.8%  
168 0.6% 98%  
169 0.6% 98%  
170 0.8% 97%  
171 1.1% 96%  
172 1.0% 95%  
173 1.3% 94%  
174 2% 93%  
175 2% 91%  
176 2% 90%  
177 2% 88%  
178 2% 86%  
179 2% 84%  
180 2% 82%  
181 3% 79%  
182 4% 76%  
183 4% 72%  
184 4% 68%  
185 4% 64%  
186 4% 61%  
187 6% 57%  
188 5% 51% Median
189 4% 46%  
190 5% 42%  
191 4% 36%  
192 4% 33%  
193 5% 28%  
194 3% 23%  
195 3% 20%  
196 3% 17%  
197 2% 14%  
198 3% 12%  
199 1.3% 10%  
200 1.2% 9% Last Result
201 2% 7%  
202 0.9% 6%  
203 1.0% 5%  
204 0.7% 4%  
205 0.5% 3%  
206 0.5% 3%  
207 0.5% 2%  
208 0.4% 2%  
209 0.3% 1.3%  
210 0.2% 1.0%  
211 0.2% 0.8%  
212 0.2% 0.6%  
213 0.1% 0.4%  
214 0.1% 0.3%  
215 0.1% 0.3%  
216 0% 0.2%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.8%  
131 0.1% 99.7%  
132 0.1% 99.6%  
133 0.2% 99.5%  
134 0.3% 99.3%  
135 0.6% 99.1%  
136 0.7% 98%  
137 0.8% 98%  
138 0.5% 97%  
139 0.6% 96%  
140 1.0% 96%  
141 1.4% 95%  
142 3% 93%  
143 3% 91%  
144 3% 88%  
145 2% 85%  
146 2% 83%  
147 3% 82%  
148 3% 79%  
149 6% 76%  
150 8% 70%  
151 4% 62%  
152 3% 58%  
153 3% 55%  
154 4% 53% Median
155 4% 49%  
156 7% 45%  
157 6% 38%  
158 4% 31%  
159 2% 27%  
160 2% 25%  
161 3% 23%  
162 2% 20%  
163 4% 17%  
164 3% 13%  
165 2% 10%  
166 1.2% 8%  
167 0.9% 7%  
168 1.4% 6%  
169 1.0% 5%  
170 1.1% 4%  
171 0.7% 3%  
172 0.4% 2%  
173 0.4% 2%  
174 0.3% 1.4%  
175 0.3% 1.0%  
176 0.1% 0.7%  
177 0.2% 0.6%  
178 0.1% 0.4%  
179 0.1% 0.3%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 99.7%  
97 0.2% 99.5%  
98 0.3% 99.3%  
99 0.5% 99.0%  
100 0.8% 98.5%  
101 0.8% 98%  
102 1.2% 97%  
103 1.1% 96%  
104 1.4% 95%  
105 2% 93%  
106 3% 91%  
107 3% 89%  
108 4% 85%  
109 3% 82%  
110 3% 79%  
111 4% 76%  
112 5% 71%  
113 5% 66%  
114 5% 61%  
115 4% 56%  
116 6% 52% Median
117 5% 47%  
118 6% 42%  
119 4% 35%  
120 4% 31%  
121 4% 27%  
122 4% 23%  
123 3% 20%  
124 4% 16%  
125 2% 13%  
126 2% 10%  
127 1.3% 8%  
128 2% 7%  
129 1.3% 5%  
130 1.1% 4%  
131 0.8% 3%  
132 0.5% 2%  
133 0.3% 2%  
134 0.3% 1.5%  
135 0.4% 1.2%  
136 0.3% 0.8%  
137 0.1% 0.5%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.6%  
62 0.4% 99.4%  
63 0.4% 99.0%  
64 0.7% 98.6%  
65 1.1% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 3% 93%  
69 3% 91%  
70 4% 88%  
71 4% 84%  
72 5% 80%  
73 6% 75%  
74 7% 70%  
75 7% 63%  
76 6% 56%  
77 6% 50% Median
78 5% 45%  
79 5% 39%  
80 6% 34%  
81 4% 28%  
82 4% 24%  
83 4% 20%  
84 3% 16%  
85 2% 12%  
86 3% 10%  
87 2% 8%  
88 1.5% 6%  
89 1.2% 4%  
90 0.9% 3%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.4% 2%  
93 0.3% 1.1%  
94 0.2% 0.8% Last Result
95 0.2% 0.6%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 0.4% 99.4%  
63 0.6% 99.0%  
64 0.7% 98%  
65 1.4% 98%  
66 1.4% 96%  
67 2% 95%  
68 2% 93%  
69 3% 90%  
70 3% 87%  
71 5% 84%  
72 4% 79%  
73 4% 75%  
74 7% 71%  
75 7% 64%  
76 6% 57%  
77 5% 51% Median
78 9% 46%  
79 5% 37%  
80 4% 32% Last Result
81 5% 28%  
82 5% 23%  
83 4% 19%  
84 2% 15%  
85 3% 13%  
86 2% 9%  
87 2% 7%  
88 1.3% 6%  
89 1.2% 4%  
90 0.9% 3%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.3% 1.4%  
93 0.3% 1.1%  
94 0.2% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.3% 99.7%  
42 0.5% 99.4%  
43 0.9% 98.8%  
44 1.0% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 95%  
47 4% 92%  
48 4% 89%  
49 4% 85%  
50 7% 81%  
51 7% 75%  
52 6% 68%  
53 7% 62%  
54 7% 55% Median
55 7% 47%  
56 7% 40%  
57 6% 33%  
58 5% 27%  
59 5% 22%  
60 3% 17%  
61 4% 14%  
62 3% 10%  
63 2% 8%  
64 2% 6%  
65 1.1% 4%  
66 1.1% 3%  
67 0.5% 2%  
68 0.4% 1.3%  
69 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
70 0.2% 0.6%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.4% 99.6%  
33 0.8% 99.2%  
34 1.0% 98%  
35 2% 97%  
36 2% 95%  
37 3% 93%  
38 5% 91%  
39 5% 85%  
40 7% 80%  
41 8% 73%  
42 7% 66%  
43 8% 58%  
44 8% 50% Median
45 8% 43%  
46 7% 35% Last Result
47 6% 28%  
48 5% 22%  
49 5% 18%  
50 3% 12%  
51 3% 10%  
52 2% 7%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.0% 3%  
55 0.7% 2%  
56 0.5% 1.5%  
57 0.3% 1.0%  
58 0.3% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 501 100% 488–513 485–516 482–519 475–525
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 462 100% 449–475 445–478 442–481 436–488
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 424 100% 411–437 407–440 403–444 397–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 385 99.8% 372–399 368–402 364–405 358–412
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 386 99.8% 371–398 368–402 364–405 358–412
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 347 22% 334–360 330–364 326–368 320–374
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 348 21% 334–360 329–363 326–367 320–375
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 324 0.2% 310–337 307–341 304–345 297–351
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 308 0% 295–321 291–325 288–328 281–335
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 308 0% 295–321 291–325 288–328 281–335
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 270 0% 257–283 253–286 250–290 244–297
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 194 0% 183–206 176–208 174–209 171–218
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 170 0% 159–182 156–185 153–188 147–194

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 99.9%  
470 0% 99.9%  
471 0% 99.9%  
472 0.1% 99.9%  
473 0.1% 99.8%  
474 0.1% 99.7%  
475 0.1% 99.6%  
476 0.1% 99.5%  
477 0.3% 99.3%  
478 0.3% 99.1%  
479 0.4% 98.8%  
480 0.4% 98%  
481 0.4% 98%  
482 0.7% 98%  
483 1.0% 97%  
484 0.8% 96%  
485 1.3% 95%  
486 0.8% 94%  
487 1.1% 93%  
488 2% 92%  
489 2% 90%  
490 2% 88%  
491 2% 86%  
492 2% 84%  
493 3% 82%  
494 4% 79%  
495 3% 75%  
496 3% 72%  
497 3% 69%  
498 5% 66%  
499 4% 62%  
500 5% 57%  
501 3% 52%  
502 4% 49% Median
503 3% 45%  
504 6% 42%  
505 5% 36%  
506 4% 31%  
507 3% 27%  
508 3% 25%  
509 4% 22%  
510 3% 18%  
511 3% 15%  
512 2% 13%  
513 2% 11%  
514 2% 9%  
515 2% 7%  
516 1.0% 6%  
517 0.8% 5%  
518 0.7% 4%  
519 0.7% 3%  
520 0.5% 2%  
521 0.4% 2%  
522 0.3% 1.3%  
523 0.2% 1.0%  
524 0.2% 0.8%  
525 0.2% 0.6%  
526 0.1% 0.5%  
527 0.1% 0.4%  
528 0.1% 0.3%  
529 0% 0.2%  
530 0% 0.2%  
531 0% 0.2%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0.1%  
536 0% 0.1%  
537 0% 0.1%  
538 0% 0.1%  
539 0% 0.1%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.8%  
433 0.1% 99.8%  
434 0.1% 99.7%  
435 0.1% 99.6%  
436 0.2% 99.5%  
437 0.2% 99.4%  
438 0.3% 99.2%  
439 0.3% 98.9%  
440 0.4% 98.6%  
441 0.4% 98%  
442 0.4% 98%  
443 0.8% 97%  
444 0.5% 97%  
445 1.4% 96%  
446 0.8% 95%  
447 2% 94%  
448 1.4% 92%  
449 2% 91%  
450 2% 89%  
451 2% 87%  
452 2% 86%  
453 3% 83%  
454 2% 80%  
455 3% 77%  
456 2% 74%  
457 5% 72%  
458 4% 67%  
459 4% 64%  
460 2% 60%  
461 5% 57%  
462 4% 52%  
463 4% 48% Median
464 3% 44%  
465 5% 41%  
466 4% 37%  
467 3% 32%  
468 4% 29%  
469 3% 25%  
470 3% 22%  
471 3% 20%  
472 2% 17%  
473 2% 14%  
474 2% 12%  
475 2% 11%  
476 2% 9%  
477 1.0% 7%  
478 1.3% 6%  
479 0.6% 4%  
480 1.0% 4%  
481 0.4% 3%  
482 0.5% 2%  
483 0.4% 2%  
484 0.3% 1.5%  
485 0.3% 1.2%  
486 0.2% 0.8%  
487 0.1% 0.6%  
488 0.1% 0.5%  
489 0.1% 0.4%  
490 0.1% 0.3%  
491 0% 0.3%  
492 0% 0.2%  
493 0% 0.2%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.8%  
394 0.1% 99.8%  
395 0.1% 99.7%  
396 0.1% 99.6%  
397 0.2% 99.5%  
398 0.2% 99.3%  
399 0.3% 99.2%  
400 0.2% 98.9%  
401 0.4% 98.6%  
402 0.4% 98%  
403 0.4% 98%  
404 0.5% 97%  
405 0.6% 97%  
406 0.7% 96%  
407 0.7% 96%  
408 1.0% 95%  
409 2% 94%  
410 1.2% 92%  
411 2% 91%  
412 3% 89%  
413 1.3% 86%  
414 4% 85%  
415 3% 82%  
416 3% 78%  
417 4% 76%  
418 3% 72%  
419 3% 69%  
420 4% 66%  
421 3% 62%  
422 3% 59%  
423 4% 55%  
424 3% 51%  
425 4% 49% Median
426 5% 45%  
427 3% 40%  
428 3% 37%  
429 4% 34%  
430 4% 30%  
431 3% 26%  
432 3% 24%  
433 2% 20%  
434 2% 18%  
435 3% 15%  
436 2% 13%  
437 2% 11%  
438 1.4% 9%  
439 2% 7%  
440 1.1% 6%  
441 1.0% 5%  
442 0.8% 4%  
443 0.5% 3%  
444 0.6% 3%  
445 0.5% 2%  
446 0.3% 2%  
447 0.2% 1.2%  
448 0.2% 1.0%  
449 0.2% 0.8%  
450 0.2% 0.7%  
451 0.1% 0.5%  
452 0.1% 0.4%  
453 0.1% 0.3%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.1% 99.7%  
357 0.1% 99.6%  
358 0.1% 99.6%  
359 0.2% 99.4%  
360 0.2% 99.3%  
361 0.3% 99.1%  
362 0.3% 98.8%  
363 0.4% 98%  
364 0.7% 98%  
365 0.5% 97%  
366 0.7% 97%  
367 1.0% 96%  
368 0.7% 95%  
369 1.4% 94%  
370 1.3% 93%  
371 2% 92%  
372 2% 90%  
373 2% 88%  
374 3% 86%  
375 2% 83%  
376 2% 81%  
377 3% 79%  
378 2% 76%  
379 3% 74%  
380 4% 71%  
381 2% 66%  
382 3% 64%  
383 4% 61%  
384 5% 57%  
385 3% 51%  
386 3% 48% Median
387 5% 45%  
388 4% 40%  
389 3% 36%  
390 3% 33%  
391 4% 29%  
392 3% 25%  
393 3% 23%  
394 2% 20%  
395 2% 18%  
396 2% 16%  
397 1.4% 13%  
398 2% 12%  
399 2% 10%  
400 1.1% 8%  
401 1.4% 7%  
402 1.2% 6%  
403 0.7% 4%  
404 0.9% 4%  
405 0.4% 3%  
406 0.6% 2%  
407 0.3% 2%  
408 0.3% 2%  
409 0.3% 1.3%  
410 0.2% 0.9%  
411 0.2% 0.8%  
412 0.2% 0.6%  
413 0.1% 0.4%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.1% 99.7%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0.1% 99.5%  
359 0.2% 99.4%  
360 0.2% 99.2%  
361 0.3% 99.0%  
362 0.3% 98.7%  
363 0.4% 98%  
364 0.6% 98%  
365 0.6% 97%  
366 0.8% 97%  
367 0.9% 96%  
368 0.8% 95%  
369 1.2% 94%  
370 1.4% 93%  
371 2% 92%  
372 1.4% 90%  
373 2% 88%  
374 2% 87%  
375 3% 85%  
376 2% 82%  
377 3% 80%  
378 4% 77%  
379 3% 74%  
380 3% 71%  
381 4% 68%  
382 3% 64%  
383 4% 62%  
384 4% 58%  
385 4% 54%  
386 4% 50% Median
387 5% 46%  
388 3% 41%  
389 4% 39%  
390 4% 34%  
391 4% 30%  
392 3% 26%  
393 4% 24%  
394 3% 19%  
395 2% 17%  
396 2% 15%  
397 2% 13%  
398 2% 11%  
399 1.2% 9%  
400 1.2% 8%  
401 1.1% 6%  
402 0.9% 5%  
403 1.0% 4%  
404 0.6% 3%  
405 0.6% 3%  
406 0.4% 2%  
407 0.3% 2%  
408 0.3% 2%  
409 0.2% 1.3%  
410 0.3% 1.0%  
411 0.1% 0.7%  
412 0.1% 0.6%  
413 0.1% 0.5%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.7%  
319 0.1% 99.6%  
320 0.2% 99.5%  
321 0.2% 99.3%  
322 0.2% 99.2%  
323 0.2% 99.0%  
324 0.4% 98.8%  
325 0.6% 98%  
326 0.5% 98%  
327 0.5% 97%  
328 0.7% 97%  
329 0.9% 96%  
330 1.1% 95%  
331 2% 94%  
332 1.5% 93%  
333 1.1% 91%  
334 2% 90%  
335 2% 88%  
336 2% 87%  
337 4% 85%  
338 2% 81%  
339 3% 79%  
340 2% 76%  
341 3% 74%  
342 3% 70%  
343 5% 67%  
344 5% 62%  
345 3% 57%  
346 3% 54%  
347 3% 50% Median
348 4% 47%  
349 5% 43%  
350 5% 38%  
351 3% 33%  
352 2% 29%  
353 2% 27%  
354 3% 25%  
355 3% 22% Majority
356 3% 19%  
357 2% 16%  
358 2% 14%  
359 1.2% 12%  
360 1.2% 11%  
361 2% 10%  
362 2% 8%  
363 1.2% 6%  
364 0.8% 5%  
365 0.6% 4%  
366 0.5% 4%  
367 0.6% 3%  
368 0.7% 3%  
369 0.4% 2%  
370 0.3% 1.5%  
371 0.2% 1.2%  
372 0.2% 1.0%  
373 0.2% 0.8%  
374 0.1% 0.6%  
375 0.1% 0.5%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.7%  
319 0.1% 99.6%  
320 0.2% 99.6%  
321 0.3% 99.4%  
322 0.3% 99.2%  
323 0.2% 98.8%  
324 0.4% 98.6%  
325 0.4% 98%  
326 0.7% 98%  
327 0.9% 97%  
328 0.6% 96%  
329 0.7% 96%  
330 1.0% 95%  
331 2% 94%  
332 0.8% 92%  
333 0.9% 91%  
334 2% 91%  
335 2% 88%  
336 3% 86%  
337 1.0% 83%  
338 2% 82%  
339 4% 80%  
340 3% 76%  
341 2% 73%  
342 2% 71%  
343 4% 69%  
344 3% 65%  
345 4% 61%  
346 3% 57%  
347 4% 54%  
348 5% 51% Median
349 4% 45%  
350 4% 41%  
351 3% 37%  
352 3% 34%  
353 4% 30%  
354 5% 26%  
355 2% 21% Majority
356 2% 19%  
357 2% 18%  
358 3% 16%  
359 2% 13%  
360 1.3% 11%  
361 1.3% 9%  
362 1.2% 8%  
363 2% 7%  
364 0.6% 5%  
365 0.6% 4%  
366 0.7% 4%  
367 0.7% 3%  
368 0.5% 2%  
369 0.2% 2%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.4% 1.4%  
372 0.3% 1.1%  
373 0.1% 0.7%  
374 0.1% 0.6%  
375 0.1% 0.5%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.6%  
297 0.2% 99.6%  
298 0.2% 99.4%  
299 0.2% 99.2%  
300 0.3% 99.1%  
301 0.3% 98.7%  
302 0.3% 98%  
303 0.6% 98%  
304 0.4% 98%  
305 0.9% 97%  
306 0.7% 96%  
307 1.2% 96%  
308 1.4% 94%  
309 1.1% 93%  
310 2% 92%  
311 2% 90%  
312 1.4% 88%  
313 2% 87%  
314 2% 84%  
315 2% 82%  
316 3% 80%  
317 3% 77%  
318 4% 75%  
319 3% 71%  
320 3% 67%  
321 4% 64%  
322 5% 60%  
323 3% 55%  
324 3% 52% Median
325 5% 49%  
326 4% 43%  
327 3% 39%  
328 2% 36%  
329 4% 34%  
330 3% 29%  
331 2% 26%  
332 3% 24%  
333 2% 21%  
334 2% 19%  
335 3% 17%  
336 2% 14%  
337 2% 12%  
338 2% 10%  
339 1.3% 8%  
340 1.4% 7%  
341 0.7% 6%  
342 1.0% 5%  
343 0.7% 4%  
344 0.5% 3%  
345 0.7% 3%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.3% 1.2%  
349 0.2% 0.9%  
350 0.2% 0.7%  
351 0.1% 0.6%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0.1% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.2% 99.4%  
283 0.3% 99.2%  
284 0.2% 99.0%  
285 0.3% 98.7%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0.4% 98%  
288 0.5% 98%  
289 0.6% 97%  
290 0.8% 97%  
291 1.1% 96%  
292 1.4% 95%  
293 1.1% 93%  
294 2% 92%  
295 2% 90%  
296 2% 89%  
297 2% 86%  
298 2% 85%  
299 2% 83%  
300 2% 81%  
301 2% 78%  
302 4% 76%  
303 3% 72%  
304 4% 69%  
305 4% 65%  
306 4% 60%  
307 4% 56%  
308 4% 52%  
309 4% 48% Median
310 4% 44%  
311 4% 40%  
312 3% 36%  
313 2% 33%  
314 3% 31%  
315 3% 28%  
316 4% 24%  
317 3% 20%  
318 3% 18%  
319 2% 15%  
320 2% 13%  
321 2% 10%  
322 1.2% 8%  
323 1.0% 7%  
324 0.8% 6%  
325 0.8% 5%  
326 0.7% 5%  
327 0.5% 4%  
328 0.8% 3%  
329 0.6% 2%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.4% 2%  
332 0.3% 1.2%  
333 0.2% 0.9%  
334 0.1% 0.7%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.2% 99.5%  
283 0.2% 99.3%  
284 0.3% 99.0%  
285 0.4% 98.8%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 0.4% 98%  
288 0.6% 98%  
289 0.7% 97%  
290 0.9% 96%  
291 0.8% 95%  
292 1.2% 95%  
293 1.4% 93%  
294 2% 92%  
295 2% 90%  
296 2% 89%  
297 2% 86%  
298 2% 84%  
299 3% 82%  
300 2% 79%  
301 3% 77%  
302 3% 74%  
303 4% 71%  
304 4% 68%  
305 4% 64%  
306 4% 60%  
307 3% 56%  
308 4% 53%  
309 3% 49% Median
310 4% 46%  
311 5% 41%  
312 5% 36%  
313 3% 32%  
314 3% 29%  
315 3% 26%  
316 2% 23%  
317 3% 21%  
318 2% 18%  
319 2% 15%  
320 2% 14%  
321 2% 11%  
322 2% 10%  
323 2% 8%  
324 1.1% 6%  
325 0.8% 5%  
326 0.6% 4% Last Result
327 0.9% 4%  
328 0.4% 3%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.4% 2%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.3% 1.3%  
333 0.3% 1.0%  
334 0.1% 0.7%  
335 0.1% 0.6%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.5%  
245 0.3% 99.4%  
246 0.2% 99.1%  
247 0.2% 98.9%  
248 0.5% 98.7%  
249 0.4% 98%  
250 0.7% 98%  
251 0.9% 97%  
252 0.6% 96%  
253 0.9% 96%  
254 1.0% 95%  
255 2% 94%  
256 1.2% 92%  
257 2% 91%  
258 2% 88%  
259 2% 87%  
260 2% 84%  
261 3% 83%  
262 4% 80%  
263 4% 76%  
264 2% 72%  
265 5% 70%  
266 2% 65%  
267 5% 63%  
268 3% 58%  
269 4% 55%  
270 5% 51% Median
271 4% 47%  
272 5% 43%  
273 2% 38%  
274 4% 36%  
275 4% 32%  
276 3% 28%  
277 4% 26%  
278 3% 22%  
279 2% 19%  
280 3% 17%  
281 1.3% 14%  
282 2% 13%  
283 2% 10%  
284 2% 9%  
285 1.0% 7%  
286 1.3% 6%  
287 0.9% 5%  
288 0.5% 4%  
289 0.6% 4%  
290 0.5% 3%  
291 0.6% 2%  
292 0.3% 2%  
293 0.3% 1.4%  
294 0.2% 1.1%  
295 0.1% 0.8%  
296 0.1% 0.7%  
297 0.1% 0.5%  
298 0.1% 0.4%  
299 0.1% 0.3%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0.1% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.8%  
167 0% 99.8%  
168 0% 99.7%  
169 0% 99.7%  
170 0.1% 99.7%  
171 0.3% 99.6%  
172 0.6% 99.3%  
173 0.8% 98.7%  
174 1.1% 98%  
175 1.2% 97%  
176 1.0% 96%  
177 0.5% 95%  
178 0.4% 94%  
179 0.1% 94%  
180 0.2% 94%  
181 0.7% 93%  
182 2% 93%  
183 4% 91%  
184 5% 87%  
185 6% 82%  
186 6% 76%  
187 6% 70%  
188 3% 64%  
189 0.7% 61%  
190 0.1% 61%  
191 0.2% 61%  
192 2% 60%  
193 6% 58% Median
194 7% 52%  
195 7% 45%  
196 7% 38%  
197 7% 31%  
198 3% 24%  
199 3% 21%  
200 1.0% 18%  
201 0.3% 17%  
202 0.2% 16%  
203 0.4% 16%  
204 1.2% 16%  
205 3% 14%  
206 3% 11%  
207 2% 8%  
208 2% 5%  
209 1.5% 4%  
210 0.4% 2%  
211 0.1% 2%  
212 0% 2%  
213 0% 2%  
214 0.1% 2%  
215 0.2% 1.5%  
216 0.3% 1.3%  
217 0.3% 0.9%  
218 0.2% 0.6%  
219 0.1% 0.4%  
220 0.1% 0.3%  
221 0.1% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.7%  
147 0.2% 99.6%  
148 0.1% 99.4%  
149 0.3% 99.3%  
150 0.3% 99.0%  
151 0.4% 98.7%  
152 0.5% 98%  
153 0.7% 98%  
154 1.0% 97%  
155 0.8% 96%  
156 1.0% 95%  
157 1.5% 94%  
158 2% 93%  
159 2% 90%  
160 2% 88%  
161 3% 87%  
162 4% 84%  
163 3% 80%  
164 4% 77%  
165 3% 73%  
166 4% 70%  
167 4% 66%  
168 5% 62%  
169 4% 56%  
170 4% 52% Median
171 3% 48%  
172 6% 45%  
173 5% 39%  
174 4% 34%  
175 4% 30%  
176 3% 27%  
177 3% 24%  
178 4% 21%  
179 3% 17%  
180 2% 14%  
181 2% 13%  
182 2% 11%  
183 2% 9%  
184 1.3% 7%  
185 0.9% 5%  
186 0.7% 5%  
187 1.0% 4%  
188 0.8% 3%  
189 0.5% 2%  
190 0.3% 2%  
191 0.4% 1.4%  
192 0.2% 1.0%  
193 0.2% 0.8%  
194 0.2% 0.6%  
195 0.1% 0.4%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations