Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 12–16 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.7% 21.3–24.3% 20.9–24.7% 20.6–25.1% 19.9–25.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.7–19.4% 16.4–19.8% 16.1–20.2% 15.5–20.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.1% 14.5–19.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.3–13.8% 9.8–14.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.4–12.8% 9.0–13.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–9.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.4% 4.2–6.6% 3.9–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 173 163–183 160–187 157–190 152–195
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 138 128–148 125–150 122–153 118–158
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 129 120–139 117–142 115–145 111–150
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 91 83–100 81–102 79–104 75–109
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 77–91 74–94 72–96 68–102
Die Linke 69 54 48–60 45–63 44–64 42–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 34–46 33–48 32–50 30–53

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.6%  
153 0.2% 99.4%  
154 0.3% 99.2%  
155 0.4% 98.9%  
156 0.4% 98%  
157 0.7% 98%  
158 0.7% 97%  
159 1.2% 97%  
160 1.0% 95%  
161 2% 94%  
162 1.5% 93%  
163 3% 91%  
164 3% 88%  
165 3% 86%  
166 3% 82%  
167 4% 79%  
168 5% 75%  
169 4% 71%  
170 4% 66%  
171 5% 62%  
172 5% 57%  
173 5% 53% Median
174 4% 48%  
175 4% 43%  
176 5% 39%  
177 4% 34%  
178 5% 29%  
179 3% 24%  
180 4% 21%  
181 2% 17%  
182 3% 15%  
183 2% 12%  
184 1.5% 10%  
185 2% 8%  
186 1.1% 6%  
187 1.0% 5%  
188 0.8% 4%  
189 0.8% 3%  
190 0.5% 3%  
191 0.6% 2%  
192 0.3% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.3%  
194 0.3% 0.9%  
195 0.2% 0.7%  
196 0.1% 0.5%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.2% 99.5%  
119 0.2% 99.3%  
120 0.5% 99.1%  
121 0.5% 98.6%  
122 0.6% 98%  
123 1.0% 97%  
124 0.8% 96%  
125 2% 96%  
126 1.4% 94%  
127 2% 92%  
128 3% 90%  
129 2% 88%  
130 4% 85%  
131 4% 81%  
132 3% 77%  
133 7% 74%  
134 2% 67%  
135 6% 65%  
136 6% 59%  
137 3% 53%  
138 7% 50% Median
139 5% 43%  
140 4% 38%  
141 5% 35%  
142 4% 30%  
143 6% 26%  
144 2% 21%  
145 4% 19%  
146 3% 15%  
147 2% 12%  
148 3% 10%  
149 1.2% 7%  
150 1.3% 6%  
151 1.2% 5%  
152 0.8% 4%  
153 0.8% 3%  
154 0.4% 2%  
155 0.5% 2%  
156 0.4% 1.2%  
157 0.1% 0.8%  
158 0.2% 0.6%  
159 0.1% 0.4%  
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.6%  
111 0.3% 99.5%  
112 0.3% 99.2%  
113 0.6% 98.9%  
114 0.6% 98%  
115 1.1% 98%  
116 0.8% 97%  
117 2% 96%  
118 1.3% 94%  
119 3% 93%  
120 2% 90%  
121 3% 88%  
122 2% 85%  
123 5% 83%  
124 3% 78%  
125 6% 75%  
126 4% 69%  
127 6% 65%  
128 5% 59%  
129 6% 55% Median
130 5% 49%  
131 7% 44%  
132 3% 37%  
133 6% 34%  
134 4% 28%  
135 3% 24%  
136 4% 21%  
137 4% 18%  
138 2% 14%  
139 3% 12%  
140 1.4% 9%  
141 2% 7%  
142 1.1% 5%  
143 1.1% 4%  
144 0.7% 3%  
145 0.8% 3%  
146 0.4% 2%  
147 0.4% 1.4%  
148 0.3% 1.0%  
149 0.2% 0.8%  
150 0.1% 0.5%  
151 0.1% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.5%  
77 0.5% 99.1%  
78 0.7% 98.6%  
79 1.1% 98%  
80 1.4% 97% Last Result
81 2% 96%  
82 2% 94%  
83 3% 91%  
84 3% 88%  
85 4% 85%  
86 5% 81%  
87 5% 76%  
88 6% 71%  
89 6% 65%  
90 8% 59%  
91 6% 52% Median
92 6% 46%  
93 6% 40%  
94 6% 34%  
95 5% 28%  
96 4% 24%  
97 4% 20%  
98 3% 16%  
99 2% 13%  
100 3% 10%  
101 2% 8%  
102 1.5% 6%  
103 1.2% 4%  
104 0.9% 3%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.4% 2%  
107 0.4% 1.3%  
108 0.3% 0.9%  
109 0.2% 0.6%  
110 0.2% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.6%  
69 0.4% 99.4%  
70 0.6% 98.9%  
71 0.8% 98%  
72 0.9% 98%  
73 1.2% 97%  
74 1.4% 95%  
75 1.4% 94%  
76 2% 93%  
77 2% 90%  
78 3% 88%  
79 5% 85%  
80 5% 80%  
81 6% 75%  
82 6% 69%  
83 8% 63%  
84 7% 55% Median
85 8% 47%  
86 6% 39%  
87 8% 33%  
88 5% 25%  
89 5% 20%  
90 3% 15%  
91 3% 12%  
92 2% 9%  
93 1.3% 7%  
94 1.3% 5% Last Result
95 0.9% 4%  
96 0.8% 3%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 0.5% 2%  
99 0.4% 1.5%  
100 0.3% 1.1%  
101 0.3% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.8%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 1.2% 99.1%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 1.3% 94%  
47 1.2% 93%  
48 2% 92%  
49 5% 89%  
50 10% 84%  
51 9% 74%  
52 7% 65%  
53 5% 58%  
54 3% 53% Median
55 6% 50%  
56 9% 43%  
57 10% 34%  
58 8% 24%  
59 5% 16%  
60 2% 11%  
61 1.4% 9%  
62 2% 8%  
63 2% 6%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.3% 1.0%  
67 0.1% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.5% 99.5%  
31 0.9% 99.0%  
32 2% 98%  
33 3% 97%  
34 4% 94%  
35 5% 90%  
36 6% 85%  
37 9% 79%  
38 8% 70%  
39 10% 62%  
40 10% 51% Median
41 8% 42%  
42 8% 33%  
43 6% 26%  
44 5% 20%  
45 4% 14%  
46 3% 11% Last Result
47 2% 8%  
48 2% 6%  
49 1.4% 4%  
50 1.0% 3%  
51 0.6% 2%  
52 0.4% 1.1%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 480 100% 469–491 465–495 462–498 456–504
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 441 100% 429–453 426–457 423–460 417–466
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 433 100% 423–446 419–449 416–453 408–459
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 388 100% 376–401 372–404 369–408 363–414
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 358 64% 345–370 342–374 339–377 332–384
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 351 34% 338–363 334–367 331–370 325–376
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 342 9% 332–354 328–359 324–363 317–369
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 321 0% 308–333 305–337 301–340 295–346
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 304 0% 292–317 289–320 286–324 280–330
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 297 0% 284–310 281–314 279–316 273–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 267 0% 254–279 251–283 248–286 242–292
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 220 0% 209–232 206–235 203–238 198–244
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 183 0% 173–194 170–197 167–200 161–206

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
449 0% 100%  
450 0% 99.9%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0.1% 99.8%  
454 0.1% 99.8%  
455 0.1% 99.7%  
456 0.1% 99.6%  
457 0.2% 99.5%  
458 0.2% 99.3%  
459 0.3% 99.0%  
460 0.4% 98.8%  
461 0.5% 98%  
462 0.5% 98%  
463 0.7% 97%  
464 1.0% 97%  
465 1.3% 96%  
466 1.2% 94% Last Result
467 1.3% 93%  
468 2% 92%  
469 3% 90%  
470 2% 88%  
471 2% 85%  
472 3% 83%  
473 3% 80%  
474 4% 77%  
475 4% 72%  
476 4% 69%  
477 4% 65%  
478 5% 61%  
479 5% 56%  
480 4% 52% Median
481 5% 48%  
482 4% 43%  
483 4% 39%  
484 6% 34%  
485 4% 28%  
486 3% 25%  
487 3% 22%  
488 4% 19%  
489 3% 15%  
490 2% 13%  
491 2% 11%  
492 2% 9%  
493 1.2% 7%  
494 1.0% 6%  
495 1.1% 5%  
496 0.8% 4%  
497 0.7% 3%  
498 0.6% 3%  
499 0.5% 2%  
500 0.3% 2%  
501 0.3% 1.3%  
502 0.2% 1.0%  
503 0.2% 0.8%  
504 0.1% 0.6%  
505 0.1% 0.5%  
506 0.1% 0.3%  
507 0.1% 0.3%  
508 0% 0.2%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0.1% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.8%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.7%  
417 0.1% 99.5%  
418 0.3% 99.4%  
419 0.3% 99.2%  
420 0.3% 98.9%  
421 0.5% 98.6%  
422 0.4% 98%  
423 0.7% 98%  
424 0.7% 97%  
425 0.8% 96%  
426 1.4% 95%  
427 1.3% 94%  
428 1.0% 93%  
429 2% 92%  
430 3% 90%  
431 2% 87%  
432 3% 85%  
433 3% 83%  
434 4% 80%  
435 2% 76%  
436 4% 74%  
437 5% 70%  
438 4% 66%  
439 3% 62%  
440 4% 59%  
441 5% 55%  
442 4% 49% Median
443 3% 46%  
444 4% 42%  
445 5% 38%  
446 3% 34%  
447 3% 31%  
448 3% 27%  
449 4% 24%  
450 3% 20%  
451 3% 17%  
452 2% 14%  
453 3% 13%  
454 2% 10%  
455 1.4% 8%  
456 1.3% 7%  
457 0.9% 6%  
458 0.9% 5%  
459 0.8% 4%  
460 0.5% 3%  
461 0.7% 2%  
462 0.4% 2%  
463 0.3% 1.4%  
464 0.3% 1.1%  
465 0.2% 0.8%  
466 0.2% 0.6%  
467 0.1% 0.5%  
468 0.1% 0.4%  
469 0.1% 0.3%  
470 0% 0.2%  
471 0% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0.1% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.8%  
407 0.1% 99.7%  
408 0.2% 99.6%  
409 0.1% 99.4%  
410 0.1% 99.3%  
411 0.2% 99.2%  
412 0.3% 99.0%  
413 0.2% 98.6%  
414 0.4% 98%  
415 0.4% 98%  
416 0.6% 98%  
417 0.4% 97%  
418 1.1% 97%  
419 0.6% 96%  
420 1.1% 95%  
421 2% 94%  
422 2% 92%  
423 2% 90%  
424 2% 88%  
425 3% 86%  
426 3% 83%  
427 6% 80%  
428 4% 75%  
429 5% 70%  
430 4% 66%  
431 4% 62%  
432 5% 58%  
433 4% 53% Median
434 6% 49%  
435 4% 43%  
436 4% 39%  
437 5% 35%  
438 4% 30%  
439 3% 26%  
440 3% 23%  
441 2% 20%  
442 3% 18%  
443 2% 15%  
444 2% 13%  
445 1.3% 11%  
446 2% 10%  
447 1.0% 8%  
448 1.2% 7%  
449 1.0% 6%  
450 0.8% 5%  
451 0.8% 4%  
452 0.6% 3%  
453 0.6% 3%  
454 0.4% 2%  
455 0.5% 2%  
456 0.3% 1.4%  
457 0.3% 1.1%  
458 0.2% 0.8%  
459 0.1% 0.6%  
460 0.1% 0.4%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0.1% 99.5%  
365 0.3% 99.3%  
366 0.3% 99.0%  
367 0.3% 98.7%  
368 0.3% 98%  
369 0.7% 98%  
370 0.6% 97%  
371 1.1% 97%  
372 1.0% 96%  
373 1.2% 95%  
374 1.2% 93%  
375 1.5% 92%  
376 3% 91%  
377 2% 88%  
378 3% 86%  
379 3% 84%  
380 3% 81%  
381 2% 78%  
382 4% 76%  
383 4% 72%  
384 3% 68%  
385 4% 65%  
386 4% 60%  
387 4% 57%  
388 5% 53% Median
389 4% 48%  
390 5% 45%  
391 4% 40%  
392 3% 36%  
393 3% 33%  
394 5% 30%  
395 3% 25%  
396 3% 22%  
397 3% 19%  
398 2% 16%  
399 2% 14%  
400 2% 12%  
401 2% 11%  
402 2% 8%  
403 1.0% 7%  
404 1.1% 6%  
405 0.9% 5%  
406 0.8% 4%  
407 0.4% 3%  
408 0.7% 3%  
409 0.4% 2%  
410 0.3% 2%  
411 0.2% 1.2%  
412 0.2% 1.0%  
413 0.1% 0.8%  
414 0.2% 0.6%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.3%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.8%  
331 0.1% 99.7%  
332 0.2% 99.7%  
333 0.1% 99.5%  
334 0.1% 99.3%  
335 0.3% 99.2%  
336 0.4% 98.9%  
337 0.4% 98.5%  
338 0.6% 98%  
339 0.6% 98%  
340 0.7% 97%  
341 1.1% 96%  
342 1.3% 95%  
343 1.0% 94%  
344 1.2% 93%  
345 2% 92%  
346 2% 90%  
347 2% 88%  
348 3% 86%  
349 3% 82%  
350 2% 80%  
351 3% 78%  
352 4% 75%  
353 4% 70%  
354 3% 67%  
355 3% 64% Majority
356 4% 60%  
357 5% 56%  
358 5% 51% Median
359 3% 46%  
360 3% 43%  
361 4% 40%  
362 3% 36%  
363 4% 33%  
364 4% 29%  
365 3% 25%  
366 3% 22%  
367 2% 20%  
368 3% 17%  
369 3% 14%  
370 2% 11%  
371 1.4% 9%  
372 1.2% 8%  
373 1.2% 7%  
374 1.3% 6%  
375 1.0% 4%  
376 0.6% 4%  
377 0.6% 3%  
378 0.4% 2%  
379 0.5% 2%  
380 0.2% 1.4%  
381 0.3% 1.1%  
382 0.2% 0.8%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.1% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.2% 99.6%  
326 0.2% 99.4%  
327 0.2% 99.3%  
328 0.3% 99.1%  
329 0.4% 98.8%  
330 0.5% 98%  
331 0.6% 98%  
332 0.8% 97%  
333 0.6% 97%  
334 1.3% 96%  
335 1.1% 95%  
336 1.0% 94%  
337 2% 93%  
338 2% 91%  
339 3% 89%  
340 2% 87%  
341 4% 85%  
342 2% 81%  
343 3% 79%  
344 3% 76%  
345 4% 73%  
346 3% 69%  
347 4% 66%  
348 4% 62%  
349 3% 57%  
350 4% 54%  
351 5% 50% Median
352 4% 45%  
353 5% 42%  
354 4% 37%  
355 3% 34% Majority
356 4% 31%  
357 3% 26%  
358 3% 23%  
359 2% 20%  
360 2% 18%  
361 2% 16%  
362 3% 13%  
363 1.5% 11%  
364 1.2% 9%  
365 1.3% 8%  
366 1.3% 7%  
367 1.3% 5%  
368 0.9% 4%  
369 0.5% 3%  
370 0.5% 3%  
371 0.5% 2%  
372 0.3% 2%  
373 0.3% 1.3%  
374 0.2% 1.0%  
375 0.2% 0.8%  
376 0.2% 0.6%  
377 0.1% 0.5%  
378 0.1% 0.4%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.5%  
318 0.2% 99.4%  
319 0.2% 99.2%  
320 0.2% 99.0%  
321 0.4% 98.8%  
322 0.2% 98%  
323 0.5% 98%  
324 0.4% 98%  
325 0.5% 97%  
326 0.8% 97%  
327 0.5% 96%  
328 0.7% 95%  
329 1.2% 95%  
330 1.3% 93%  
331 2% 92%  
332 2% 91%  
333 3% 89%  
334 2% 86%  
335 4% 84%  
336 3% 80%  
337 4% 77%  
338 6% 74%  
339 3% 67%  
340 7% 64%  
341 5% 57%  
342 5% 52% Median
343 6% 47%  
344 3% 42%  
345 7% 38%  
346 3% 31%  
347 4% 28%  
348 4% 24%  
349 2% 21%  
350 2% 19%  
351 2% 16%  
352 2% 14%  
353 2% 12%  
354 1.2% 10%  
355 1.2% 9% Majority
356 0.9% 8%  
357 1.0% 7%  
358 0.6% 6%  
359 0.8% 6%  
360 0.6% 5%  
361 0.5% 4%  
362 0.8% 4%  
363 0.4% 3%  
364 0.6% 2%  
365 0.2% 2%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.4% 1.3%  
368 0.2% 0.9%  
369 0.3% 0.7%  
370 0.1% 0.5%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.2% 99.6%  
296 0.1% 99.4%  
297 0.2% 99.2%  
298 0.2% 99.0%  
299 0.3% 98.8%  
300 0.4% 98%  
301 0.7% 98%  
302 0.4% 97%  
303 0.8% 97%  
304 0.9% 96%  
305 1.1% 95%  
306 1.0% 94%  
307 2% 93%  
308 2% 92%  
309 2% 89%  
310 2% 88%  
311 2% 86%  
312 3% 84%  
313 3% 81%  
314 3% 78%  
315 5% 75%  
316 3% 70%  
317 3% 67%  
318 4% 64%  
319 5% 60%  
320 4% 55%  
321 5% 52% Median
322 4% 47%  
323 4% 43%  
324 4% 40%  
325 3% 35%  
326 4% 32%  
327 4% 28%  
328 2% 24%  
329 3% 22%  
330 3% 19%  
331 3% 16%  
332 2% 14%  
333 3% 12%  
334 1.5% 9%  
335 1.2% 8%  
336 1.2% 7%  
337 1.0% 5%  
338 1.1% 4%  
339 0.6% 3%  
340 0.7% 3%  
341 0.3% 2%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.3%  
344 0.3% 1.0%  
345 0.1% 0.7%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.2% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.5%  
281 0.2% 99.4%  
282 0.2% 99.1%  
283 0.4% 98.9%  
284 0.4% 98.6%  
285 0.5% 98%  
286 0.6% 98%  
287 0.7% 97%  
288 0.9% 96%  
289 1.3% 95%  
290 2% 94%  
291 1.0% 92%  
292 2% 91%  
293 1.4% 89%  
294 3% 88%  
295 4% 85%  
296 3% 81%  
297 2% 78%  
298 5% 76%  
299 2% 71%  
300 5% 69%  
301 4% 64%  
302 5% 60%  
303 4% 56%  
304 5% 52% Median
305 3% 46%  
306 3% 43%  
307 5% 40%  
308 3% 35%  
309 5% 33%  
310 3% 28%  
311 4% 25%  
312 2% 21%  
313 3% 19%  
314 2% 16%  
315 2% 14%  
316 1.3% 11%  
317 2% 10%  
318 1.5% 8%  
319 1.1% 7%  
320 1.2% 6%  
321 0.9% 5%  
322 0.7% 4%  
323 0.6% 3%  
324 0.6% 3%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.3% 2% Last Result
327 0.3% 1.3%  
328 0.3% 1.0%  
329 0.2% 0.8%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.6%  
273 0.2% 99.5%  
274 0.3% 99.3%  
275 0.4% 99.1%  
276 0.4% 98.7%  
277 0.3% 98%  
278 0.5% 98%  
279 1.1% 98%  
280 1.1% 96%  
281 0.7% 95%  
282 0.7% 95%  
283 1.5% 94%  
284 3% 92%  
285 2% 90%  
286 2% 88%  
287 2% 85%  
288 2% 84%  
289 4% 82%  
290 5% 78%  
291 2% 73%  
292 2% 71%  
293 3% 68%  
294 6% 65%  
295 5% 59%  
296 3% 54%  
297 3% 51% Median
298 3% 48%  
299 6% 45%  
300 5% 40%  
301 3% 35%  
302 2% 31%  
303 2% 29%  
304 4% 27%  
305 4% 23%  
306 2% 19%  
307 1.5% 17%  
308 2% 15%  
309 2% 13%  
310 2% 11%  
311 1.4% 8%  
312 0.8% 7%  
313 1.0% 6%  
314 1.2% 5%  
315 1.0% 4%  
316 0.5% 3%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.5% 2%  
320 0.4% 1.3%  
321 0.2% 0.9%  
322 0.1% 0.7%  
323 0.1% 0.6%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.2% 99.5%  
244 0.2% 99.3%  
245 0.4% 99.1%  
246 0.3% 98.8%  
247 0.6% 98%  
248 0.6% 98%  
249 0.8% 97%  
250 0.8% 96%  
251 1.3% 96%  
252 1.3% 94%  
253 2% 93%  
254 2% 91%  
255 2% 90%  
256 2% 88%  
257 2% 85%  
258 4% 83%  
259 3% 80%  
260 3% 77%  
261 3% 74%  
262 4% 71%  
263 3% 67%  
264 4% 64%  
265 5% 60%  
266 4% 56%  
267 4% 51% Median
268 4% 47%  
269 5% 43%  
270 3% 39%  
271 5% 36%  
272 4% 31%  
273 3% 27%  
274 3% 24%  
275 2% 21%  
276 3% 19%  
277 2% 15%  
278 2% 13%  
279 2% 11%  
280 2% 9%  
281 1.0% 8%  
282 1.3% 7%  
283 1.1% 5%  
284 0.9% 4%  
285 0.5% 3%  
286 0.6% 3%  
287 0.5% 2%  
288 0.3% 2%  
289 0.3% 1.4%  
290 0.3% 1.1%  
291 0.2% 0.8%  
292 0.1% 0.6%  
293 0.1% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0.1% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.1% 99.6%  
198 0.2% 99.6%  
199 0.3% 99.4%  
200 0.2% 99.1%  
201 0.3% 98.8%  
202 0.7% 98%  
203 0.8% 98%  
204 0.6% 97%  
205 1.0% 96%  
206 2% 95%  
207 1.4% 94%  
208 1.2% 92%  
209 2% 91%  
210 3% 89%  
211 2% 86%  
212 3% 84%  
213 4% 81%  
214 3% 77%  
215 2% 74%  
216 6% 72%  
217 3% 66%  
218 4% 63%  
219 6% 59%  
220 6% 53% Median
221 3% 48%  
222 4% 45%  
223 4% 41%  
224 3% 37%  
225 5% 34%  
226 3% 29%  
227 4% 26%  
228 3% 22%  
229 3% 18%  
230 2% 16%  
231 2% 14%  
232 2% 11%  
233 1.1% 9% Last Result
234 2% 8%  
235 2% 6%  
236 0.8% 5%  
237 0.7% 4%  
238 1.0% 3%  
239 0.4% 2%  
240 0.2% 2%  
241 0.4% 2%  
242 0.3% 1.1%  
243 0.2% 0.8%  
244 0.2% 0.7%  
245 0.2% 0.5%  
246 0.1% 0.3%  
247 0.1% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.8%  
160 0.1% 99.7%  
161 0.1% 99.6%  
162 0.2% 99.5%  
163 0.3% 99.3%  
164 0.2% 99.0%  
165 0.4% 98.8%  
166 0.7% 98%  
167 0.8% 98%  
168 0.8% 97%  
169 0.8% 96%  
170 1.5% 95%  
171 1.5% 94%  
172 2% 92%  
173 2% 90%  
174 2% 88%  
175 2% 86%  
176 3% 83%  
177 5% 80%  
178 4% 75%  
179 4% 71%  
180 4% 68%  
181 4% 64%  
182 5% 60%  
183 5% 55% Median
184 4% 49%  
185 5% 45%  
186 5% 40%  
187 4% 36%  
188 4% 31%  
189 4% 27%  
190 3% 23%  
191 2% 20%  
192 4% 18%  
193 3% 14%  
194 2% 11%  
195 2% 9%  
196 1.0% 7%  
197 1.3% 6%  
198 0.9% 5%  
199 1.0% 4%  
200 0.6% 3%  
201 0.7% 2%  
202 0.4% 2%  
203 0.3% 1.2%  
204 0.2% 0.9%  
205 0.2% 0.7%  
206 0.1% 0.5%  
207 0.1% 0.4%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations