Opinion Poll by Forsa, 13–19 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.1% 21.3–24.4% 21.0–24.7% 20.4–25.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.6–5.9% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.3% 4.1–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 175 166–185 164–187 161–190 157–194
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 146 138–155 135–158 133–160 129–164
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 123 115–131 113–133 111–136 108–140
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 92 85–100 83–102 82–104 79–107
Alternative für Deutschland 94 77 71–84 69–86 67–88 64–91
Die Linke 69 54 49–60 47–62 46–63 43–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 36–46 34–47 33–48 31–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.8%  
156 0.1% 99.7%  
157 0.2% 99.6%  
158 0.2% 99.4%  
159 0.3% 99.2%  
160 0.7% 98.9%  
161 0.9% 98%  
162 0.6% 97%  
163 1.4% 97%  
164 2% 95%  
165 2% 94%  
166 2% 91%  
167 2% 89%  
168 3% 87%  
169 5% 84%  
170 4% 79%  
171 6% 75%  
172 4% 69%  
173 6% 65%  
174 6% 59%  
175 6% 54% Median
176 6% 48%  
177 5% 42%  
178 5% 37%  
179 5% 33%  
180 4% 28%  
181 3% 23%  
182 4% 20%  
183 3% 16%  
184 2% 13%  
185 2% 10%  
186 1.4% 8%  
187 2% 7%  
188 1.4% 5%  
189 0.9% 4%  
190 0.9% 3%  
191 0.5% 2%  
192 0.3% 1.3%  
193 0.3% 0.9%  
194 0.2% 0.7%  
195 0.1% 0.5%  
196 0.2% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0.1% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.2% 99.8%  
129 0.2% 99.6%  
130 0.2% 99.4%  
131 0.6% 99.2%  
132 0.7% 98.6%  
133 0.4% 98%  
134 1.2% 97%  
135 2% 96%  
136 1.1% 94%  
137 2% 93%  
138 4% 92%  
139 3% 87%  
140 4% 84%  
141 5% 80%  
142 7% 75%  
143 3% 69%  
144 4% 65%  
145 7% 61%  
146 5% 54% Median
147 4% 49%  
148 7% 44%  
149 7% 37%  
150 4% 31%  
151 5% 27%  
152 6% 22%  
153 4% 16%  
154 1.4% 13%  
155 2% 11%  
156 2% 9%  
157 0.9% 6%  
158 1.3% 6%  
159 1.5% 4%  
160 0.7% 3%  
161 0.4% 2%  
162 0.6% 2%  
163 0.4% 1.0%  
164 0.2% 0.6%  
165 0.1% 0.4%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.2% 99.8%  
107 0.1% 99.6%  
108 0.4% 99.5%  
109 0.5% 99.1%  
110 0.5% 98.6%  
111 1.3% 98%  
112 0.9% 97%  
113 2% 96%  
114 2% 94%  
115 2% 92%  
116 5% 89%  
117 3% 84%  
118 5% 81%  
119 5% 76%  
120 5% 71%  
121 8% 67%  
122 5% 58%  
123 8% 54% Median
124 5% 46%  
125 7% 41%  
126 7% 34%  
127 3% 28%  
128 5% 25%  
129 3% 19%  
130 4% 16%  
131 3% 12%  
132 2% 9%  
133 3% 8%  
134 1.2% 5%  
135 1.0% 3%  
136 0.7% 3%  
137 0.4% 2%  
138 0.6% 1.4%  
139 0.2% 0.8%  
140 0.2% 0.6%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.2% 99.7%  
79 0.5% 99.5%  
80 0.5% 99.1% Last Result
81 0.8% 98.5%  
82 1.4% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 2% 95%  
85 3% 92%  
86 4% 89%  
87 5% 85%  
88 5% 81%  
89 6% 76%  
90 8% 70%  
91 6% 62%  
92 7% 56% Median
93 7% 49%  
94 6% 42%  
95 7% 36%  
96 5% 29%  
97 6% 24%  
98 4% 18%  
99 3% 14%  
100 3% 11%  
101 2% 8%  
102 2% 6%  
103 1.3% 4%  
104 0.9% 3%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.4% 1.2%  
107 0.3% 0.8%  
108 0.2% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 0.3% 99.4%  
66 0.9% 99.1%  
67 1.3% 98%  
68 1.1% 97%  
69 3% 96%  
70 2% 93%  
71 5% 91%  
72 5% 86%  
73 4% 80%  
74 9% 76%  
75 4% 68%  
76 10% 63%  
77 7% 53% Median
78 5% 46%  
79 11% 41%  
80 4% 30%  
81 8% 27%  
82 4% 19%  
83 4% 15%  
84 4% 11%  
85 1.2% 7%  
86 2% 6%  
87 1.2% 4%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.3% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.4% 99.5%  
45 1.2% 99.0%  
46 1.2% 98%  
47 3% 97%  
48 3% 94%  
49 5% 91%  
50 5% 86%  
51 8% 81%  
52 7% 72%  
53 10% 65%  
54 7% 55% Median
55 10% 48%  
56 8% 38%  
57 7% 30%  
58 6% 23%  
59 5% 16%  
60 3% 12%  
61 3% 8%  
62 2% 6%  
63 2% 4%  
64 1.0% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.3%  
66 0.4% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.7%  
32 0.7% 99.3%  
33 2% 98.6%  
34 3% 97%  
35 3% 94%  
36 5% 91%  
37 9% 87%  
38 9% 78%  
39 9% 69%  
40 13% 60% Median
41 8% 46%  
42 6% 38%  
43 11% 32%  
44 6% 21%  
45 4% 14%  
46 4% 11% Last Result
47 3% 6%  
48 1.3% 4%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.7% 1.3%  
51 0.2% 0.6%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 485 100% 475–495 472–498 470–500 465–505
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 455 100% 444–465 442–468 439–470 434–475
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 431 100% 421–442 418–445 415–447 410–452
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 386 100% 374–396 371–399 369–402 364–407
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 362 83% 352–373 349–376 346–379 341–384
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 362 81% 351–373 348–376 346–378 341–383
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 339 3% 328–350 325–353 323–355 317–360
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 323 0% 313–335 310–338 307–340 302–345
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 309 0% 298–318 295–322 293–325 287–330
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 293 0% 282–303 279–306 277–309 272–314
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 269 0% 259–280 256–283 254–286 248–291
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 215 0% 207–224 203–229 200–232 197–235
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 178 0% 168–187 166–189 163–191 159–196

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
459 0% 100%  
460 0% 99.9%  
461 0% 99.9%  
462 0.1% 99.9%  
463 0.1% 99.8%  
464 0.1% 99.7%  
465 0.2% 99.6%  
466 0.3% 99.4% Last Result
467 0.3% 99.1%  
468 0.4% 98.8%  
469 0.6% 98%  
470 0.7% 98%  
471 1.3% 97%  
472 1.2% 96%  
473 1.2% 95%  
474 2% 93%  
475 2% 92%  
476 3% 90%  
477 4% 87%  
478 3% 83%  
479 3% 81%  
480 5% 78%  
481 4% 73%  
482 5% 69%  
483 6% 64%  
484 6% 58% Median
485 5% 53%  
486 4% 48%  
487 4% 43%  
488 5% 39%  
489 5% 34%  
490 4% 29%  
491 5% 25%  
492 3% 20%  
493 3% 17%  
494 2% 14%  
495 3% 12%  
496 2% 9%  
497 2% 7%  
498 1.4% 6%  
499 0.9% 4%  
500 0.8% 3%  
501 0.6% 2%  
502 0.6% 2%  
503 0.4% 1.2%  
504 0.2% 0.8%  
505 0.2% 0.6%  
506 0.1% 0.4%  
507 0.1% 0.3%  
508 0.1% 0.2%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0.1% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.8%  
432 0% 99.8%  
433 0.1% 99.7%  
434 0.3% 99.6%  
435 0.4% 99.4%  
436 0.5% 99.0%  
437 0.4% 98%  
438 0.2% 98%  
439 0.4% 98%  
440 0.6% 97%  
441 2% 97%  
442 2% 95%  
443 2% 93%  
444 1.3% 91%  
445 1.1% 90%  
446 2% 88%  
447 4% 87%  
448 6% 83%  
449 6% 77%  
450 4% 71%  
451 3% 67%  
452 2% 64%  
453 4% 63% Median
454 7% 58%  
455 7% 52%  
456 8% 45%  
457 4% 37%  
458 2% 32%  
459 2% 30%  
460 5% 28%  
461 4% 23%  
462 5% 19%  
463 3% 15%  
464 1.4% 12%  
465 1.0% 10%  
466 1.4% 9%  
467 1.5% 8%  
468 2% 7%  
469 2% 4%  
470 0.8% 3%  
471 0.3% 2%  
472 0.2% 2%  
473 0.3% 1.4%  
474 0.4% 1.1%  
475 0.3% 0.7%  
476 0.2% 0.4%  
477 0.1% 0.2%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.9%  
408 0.1% 99.8%  
409 0.1% 99.7%  
410 0.2% 99.6%  
411 0.2% 99.4%  
412 0.4% 99.2%  
413 0.3% 98.8%  
414 0.6% 98.5%  
415 0.7% 98%  
416 0.7% 97%  
417 0.7% 97%  
418 1.1% 96%  
419 2% 95%  
420 2% 93%  
421 3% 91%  
422 2% 88%  
423 3% 86%  
424 2% 83%  
425 4% 81%  
426 4% 77%  
427 4% 72%  
428 4% 68%  
429 5% 64%  
430 4% 59% Median
431 5% 54%  
432 4% 49%  
433 5% 45%  
434 6% 40%  
435 4% 34%  
436 4% 30%  
437 3% 26%  
438 4% 23%  
439 3% 19%  
440 3% 16%  
441 2% 13%  
442 3% 11%  
443 1.3% 8%  
444 2% 7%  
445 1.1% 5%  
446 1.0% 4%  
447 0.9% 3%  
448 0.5% 2%  
449 0.6% 2%  
450 0.3% 1.2%  
451 0.2% 0.9%  
452 0.2% 0.7%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.4%  
366 0.3% 99.2%  
367 0.4% 98.9%  
368 0.6% 98%  
369 0.8% 98%  
370 0.6% 97%  
371 1.5% 96%  
372 1.2% 95%  
373 2% 94%  
374 3% 92%  
375 2% 89%  
376 3% 88%  
377 2% 84%  
378 4% 83%  
379 4% 79%  
380 2% 74%  
381 5% 72%  
382 5% 68%  
383 3% 63%  
384 5% 60% Median
385 4% 55%  
386 5% 51%  
387 6% 46%  
388 4% 41%  
389 7% 37%  
390 2% 30%  
391 4% 28%  
392 3% 23%  
393 4% 21%  
394 3% 17%  
395 3% 14%  
396 3% 11%  
397 2% 8%  
398 2% 7%  
399 0.9% 5%  
400 0.8% 4%  
401 0.8% 3%  
402 0.5% 3%  
403 0.6% 2%  
404 0.4% 2%  
405 0.3% 1.1%  
406 0.2% 0.8%  
407 0.2% 0.6%  
408 0.1% 0.4%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.6%  
341 0.2% 99.5%  
342 0.2% 99.3%  
343 0.3% 99.1%  
344 0.4% 98.8%  
345 0.6% 98%  
346 0.8% 98%  
347 0.8% 97%  
348 1.1% 96%  
349 2% 95%  
350 1.1% 94%  
351 2% 92%  
352 2% 91%  
353 2% 88%  
354 3% 86%  
355 4% 83% Majority
356 4% 79%  
357 4% 76%  
358 5% 72%  
359 5% 66%  
360 5% 62%  
361 6% 57% Median
362 5% 51%  
363 5% 47%  
364 5% 42%  
365 4% 37%  
366 5% 33%  
367 3% 28%  
368 4% 26%  
369 4% 22%  
370 3% 19%  
371 3% 16%  
372 2% 13%  
373 3% 11%  
374 1.2% 8%  
375 1.2% 7%  
376 1.3% 6%  
377 1.2% 5%  
378 0.7% 3%  
379 0.6% 3%  
380 0.5% 2%  
381 0.5% 2%  
382 0.3% 1.0%  
383 0.2% 0.7%  
384 0.1% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0.1% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.6%  
341 0.2% 99.5%  
342 0.4% 99.3%  
343 0.3% 98.9%  
344 0.5% 98.6%  
345 0.3% 98%  
346 0.7% 98%  
347 1.3% 97%  
348 2% 96%  
349 1.4% 94%  
350 1.3% 93%  
351 2% 91%  
352 3% 89%  
353 3% 86%  
354 3% 84%  
355 3% 81% Majority
356 3% 78%  
357 5% 75%  
358 6% 70%  
359 4% 64%  
360 3% 60%  
361 3% 56% Median
362 7% 54%  
363 4% 47%  
364 7% 42%  
365 3% 36%  
366 3% 32%  
367 4% 30%  
368 4% 26%  
369 5% 22%  
370 3% 17%  
371 2% 14%  
372 2% 12%  
373 2% 11%  
374 2% 8%  
375 1.2% 6%  
376 0.7% 5%  
377 0.9% 4%  
378 1.0% 3%  
379 0.9% 2%  
380 0.5% 2%  
381 0.2% 1.0%  
382 0.2% 0.8%  
383 0.2% 0.7%  
384 0.1% 0.5%  
385 0.2% 0.4%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.2% 99.7%  
318 0.2% 99.5%  
319 0.2% 99.2%  
320 0.4% 99.0%  
321 0.3% 98.6%  
322 0.7% 98%  
323 1.0% 98%  
324 0.9% 97%  
325 1.3% 96%  
326 1.2% 94%  
327 1.4% 93%  
328 2% 92%  
329 2% 90%  
330 3% 87%  
331 3% 84%  
332 3% 81%  
333 3% 77%  
334 5% 75%  
335 4% 70%  
336 4% 65%  
337 4% 61%  
338 4% 57% Median
339 6% 53%  
340 5% 47%  
341 4% 42%  
342 4% 38%  
343 5% 34%  
344 4% 29%  
345 3% 25%  
346 3% 22%  
347 3% 18%  
348 2% 15%  
349 3% 13%  
350 2% 10%  
351 1.0% 8%  
352 2% 7%  
353 1.2% 5%  
354 0.6% 4%  
355 1.0% 3% Majority
356 0.7% 2%  
357 0.4% 2%  
358 0.4% 1.3%  
359 0.2% 1.0%  
360 0.2% 0.7%  
361 0.1% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.2% 99.6%  
303 0.2% 99.4%  
304 0.3% 99.2%  
305 0.4% 98.9%  
306 0.6% 98%  
307 0.5% 98%  
308 0.8% 97%  
309 0.8% 97%  
310 0.9% 96%  
311 2% 95%  
312 2% 93%  
313 3% 92%  
314 3% 89%  
315 3% 86%  
316 4% 83%  
317 3% 79%  
318 4% 77%  
319 2% 72%  
320 7% 70%  
321 4% 63%  
322 6% 59%  
323 5% 54% Median
324 4% 49%  
325 5% 45%  
326 3% 40%  
327 5% 37%  
328 5% 32%  
329 2% 28%  
330 4% 26%  
331 4% 21%  
332 2% 17%  
333 3% 16%  
334 2% 12%  
335 3% 11%  
336 2% 8%  
337 1.2% 6%  
338 1.5% 5%  
339 0.6% 4%  
340 0.8% 3%  
341 0.6% 2%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.1%  
344 0.2% 0.8%  
345 0.1% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.5%  
288 0.2% 99.4%  
289 0.3% 99.1%  
290 0.4% 98.9%  
291 0.4% 98%  
292 0.4% 98%  
293 0.8% 98%  
294 0.9% 97%  
295 2% 96%  
296 1.3% 94%  
297 2% 93%  
298 3% 91%  
299 3% 87%  
300 3% 84%  
301 3% 81%  
302 4% 77%  
303 3% 74%  
304 4% 71%  
305 3% 67%  
306 4% 64%  
307 4% 60% Median
308 5% 56%  
309 4% 51%  
310 5% 46%  
311 5% 42%  
312 4% 37%  
313 7% 32%  
314 5% 26%  
315 4% 21%  
316 4% 18%  
317 2% 14%  
318 2% 12%  
319 2% 10%  
320 1.3% 8%  
321 1.0% 7%  
322 1.2% 6%  
323 1.0% 5%  
324 1.0% 4%  
325 0.6% 3%  
326 0.5% 2% Last Result
327 0.6% 2%  
328 0.3% 1.1%  
329 0.3% 0.8%  
330 0.2% 0.5%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.2% 99.6%  
273 0.2% 99.4%  
274 0.4% 99.2%  
275 0.4% 98.8%  
276 0.6% 98%  
277 0.7% 98%  
278 1.1% 97%  
279 1.4% 96%  
280 1.2% 95%  
281 2% 93%  
282 3% 92%  
283 3% 89%  
284 3% 87%  
285 3% 84%  
286 3% 80%  
287 4% 77%  
288 3% 73%  
289 4% 70%  
290 4% 66%  
291 4% 62%  
292 7% 59% Median
293 3% 52%  
294 5% 49%  
295 5% 44%  
296 5% 39%  
297 4% 34%  
298 4% 29%  
299 4% 25%  
300 3% 21%  
301 4% 18%  
302 2% 14%  
303 2% 12%  
304 2% 10%  
305 2% 8%  
306 1.2% 6%  
307 0.9% 5%  
308 0.8% 4%  
309 0.7% 3%  
310 0.4% 2%  
311 0.5% 2%  
312 0.3% 1.3%  
313 0.3% 1.0%  
314 0.3% 0.7%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0.1% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.2% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.5%  
250 0.3% 99.4%  
251 0.3% 99.0%  
252 0.5% 98.8%  
253 0.7% 98%  
254 0.7% 98%  
255 0.6% 97%  
256 2% 96%  
257 1.3% 94%  
258 2% 93%  
259 2% 91%  
260 2% 89%  
261 4% 87%  
262 3% 83%  
263 4% 80%  
264 3% 77%  
265 6% 73%  
266 3% 67%  
267 7% 65%  
268 3% 57%  
269 6% 54% Median
270 5% 48%  
271 4% 44%  
272 4% 39%  
273 4% 35%  
274 4% 31%  
275 4% 26%  
276 4% 23%  
277 3% 19%  
278 3% 16%  
279 3% 13%  
280 2% 10%  
281 1.4% 9%  
282 2% 7%  
283 1.1% 5%  
284 1.0% 4%  
285 0.7% 3%  
286 0.6% 3%  
287 0.4% 2%  
288 0.7% 2%  
289 0.2% 0.9%  
290 0.2% 0.7%  
291 0.2% 0.5%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0.1% 0.2%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.2% 99.8%  
197 0.3% 99.5%  
198 0.6% 99.2%  
199 0.9% 98.7%  
200 0.8% 98%  
201 1.2% 97%  
202 0.7% 96%  
203 0.7% 95%  
204 0.8% 94%  
205 1.0% 94%  
206 2% 93%  
207 2% 91%  
208 5% 89%  
209 5% 85%  
210 9% 80%  
211 6% 71%  
212 5% 65%  
213 5% 59%  
214 2% 54%  
215 2% 52% Median
216 1.5% 50%  
217 3% 48%  
218 4% 45%  
219 5% 40%  
220 7% 36%  
221 6% 28%  
222 8% 23%  
223 3% 15%  
224 3% 12%  
225 2% 9%  
226 0.7% 7%  
227 0.6% 7%  
228 0.5% 6%  
229 1.0% 5%  
230 1.0% 4%  
231 0.8% 3%  
232 1.1% 3%  
233 0.4% 2% Last Result
234 0.7% 1.2%  
235 0.2% 0.5%  
236 0.1% 0.3%  
237 0.1% 0.2%  
238 0% 0.2%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.2% 99.8%  
159 0.2% 99.6%  
160 0.3% 99.4%  
161 0.6% 99.1%  
162 0.3% 98.6%  
163 1.0% 98%  
164 0.7% 97%  
165 1.3% 96%  
166 1.4% 95%  
167 2% 94%  
168 2% 92%  
169 4% 90%  
170 3% 86%  
171 5% 83%  
172 4% 78%  
173 4% 74%  
174 5% 70%  
175 3% 64%  
176 6% 61%  
177 4% 55% Median
178 7% 51%  
179 6% 44%  
180 6% 38%  
181 4% 32%  
182 5% 28%  
183 3% 22%  
184 4% 20%  
185 2% 16%  
186 4% 14%  
187 2% 10%  
188 2% 9%  
189 2% 6%  
190 1.0% 5%  
191 1.1% 4%  
192 0.7% 2%  
193 0.5% 2%  
194 0.4% 1.3%  
195 0.3% 0.9%  
196 0.2% 0.6%  
197 0.2% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0.1% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations