Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 16–19 July 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands | 26.8% | 23.5% | 22.3–24.7% | 22.0–25.1% | 21.7–25.4% | 21.2–26.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 8.9% | 18.0% | 17.0–19.2% | 16.7–19.5% | 16.4–19.8% | 15.9–20.3% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 20.5% | 16.5% | 15.5–17.6% | 15.2–17.9% | 15.0–18.2% | 14.5–18.7% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 10.7% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.9–13.3% | 10.7–13.5% | 10.3–14.0% |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 12.6% | 11.5% | 10.6–12.4% | 10.4–12.7% | 10.2–12.9% | 9.8–13.4% |
| Die Linke | 9.2% | 6.0% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.5% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9–6.2% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.3–7.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands | 200 | 179 | 170–188 | 167–191 | 165–193 | 161–199 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 67 | 137 | 129–145 | 127–148 | 125–151 | 121–155 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 153 | 126 | 118–134 | 116–136 | 114–139 | 110–143 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 80 | 92 | 85–99 | 83–101 | 81–103 | 78–107 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 94 | 88 | 81–95 | 79–97 | 77–99 | 74–102 |
| Die Linke | 69 | 46 | 41–51 | 39–52 | 39–54 | 0–57 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 46 | 42 | 37–47 | 36–49 | 35–50 | 33–53 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 165 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 166 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 167 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 168 | 2% | 94% | |
| 169 | 2% | 92% | |
| 170 | 3% | 91% | |
| 171 | 3% | 88% | |
| 172 | 3% | 84% | |
| 173 | 3% | 81% | |
| 174 | 5% | 78% | |
| 175 | 5% | 73% | |
| 176 | 6% | 68% | |
| 177 | 7% | 62% | |
| 178 | 5% | 56% | |
| 179 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 180 | 6% | 45% | |
| 181 | 5% | 38% | |
| 182 | 4% | 33% | |
| 183 | 4% | 30% | |
| 184 | 4% | 25% | |
| 185 | 3% | 21% | |
| 186 | 3% | 18% | |
| 187 | 3% | 15% | |
| 188 | 3% | 12% | |
| 189 | 2% | 9% | |
| 190 | 2% | 7% | |
| 191 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 192 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 193 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 194 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 124 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 125 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 126 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 127 | 2% | 95% | |
| 128 | 2% | 93% | |
| 129 | 2% | 91% | |
| 130 | 4% | 89% | |
| 131 | 4% | 85% | |
| 132 | 4% | 81% | |
| 133 | 4% | 77% | |
| 134 | 6% | 73% | |
| 135 | 7% | 67% | |
| 136 | 5% | 61% | |
| 137 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 138 | 7% | 50% | |
| 139 | 5% | 42% | |
| 140 | 4% | 37% | |
| 141 | 7% | 32% | |
| 142 | 4% | 25% | |
| 143 | 4% | 21% | |
| 144 | 4% | 17% | |
| 145 | 3% | 13% | |
| 146 | 2% | 10% | |
| 147 | 2% | 8% | |
| 148 | 2% | 6% | |
| 149 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 114 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 115 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 116 | 2% | 96% | |
| 117 | 2% | 93% | |
| 118 | 4% | 91% | |
| 119 | 3% | 88% | |
| 120 | 5% | 85% | |
| 121 | 4% | 80% | |
| 122 | 7% | 75% | |
| 123 | 5% | 68% | |
| 124 | 7% | 63% | |
| 125 | 5% | 56% | |
| 126 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 127 | 6% | 45% | |
| 128 | 5% | 39% | |
| 129 | 6% | 34% | |
| 130 | 4% | 28% | |
| 131 | 5% | 24% | |
| 132 | 3% | 18% | |
| 133 | 4% | 15% | |
| 134 | 2% | 11% | |
| 135 | 3% | 9% | |
| 136 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 137 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 138 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 139 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Freie Demokratische Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 81 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 82 | 2% | 97% | |
| 83 | 2% | 95% | |
| 84 | 3% | 94% | |
| 85 | 5% | 91% | |
| 86 | 5% | 85% | |
| 87 | 4% | 81% | |
| 88 | 6% | 77% | |
| 89 | 8% | 71% | |
| 90 | 5% | 63% | |
| 91 | 5% | 58% | |
| 92 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 93 | 6% | 43% | |
| 94 | 4% | 37% | |
| 95 | 6% | 33% | |
| 96 | 8% | 27% | |
| 97 | 4% | 19% | |
| 98 | 4% | 15% | |
| 99 | 4% | 12% | |
| 100 | 3% | 8% | |
| 101 | 2% | 5% | |
| 102 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 104 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 78 | 2% | 97% | |
| 79 | 2% | 96% | |
| 80 | 3% | 94% | |
| 81 | 4% | 91% | |
| 82 | 5% | 87% | |
| 83 | 5% | 82% | |
| 84 | 6% | 77% | |
| 85 | 7% | 71% | |
| 86 | 6% | 64% | |
| 87 | 8% | 58% | |
| 88 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 89 | 6% | 42% | |
| 90 | 6% | 36% | |
| 91 | 5% | 29% | |
| 92 | 6% | 24% | |
| 93 | 4% | 18% | |
| 94 | 4% | 14% | Last Result |
| 95 | 3% | 10% | |
| 96 | 2% | 7% | |
| 97 | 2% | 6% | |
| 98 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 99 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98% | |
| 9 | 0% | 98% | |
| 10 | 0% | 98% | |
| 11 | 0% | 98% | |
| 12 | 0% | 98% | |
| 13 | 0% | 98% | |
| 14 | 0% | 98% | |
| 15 | 0% | 98% | |
| 16 | 0% | 98% | |
| 17 | 0% | 98% | |
| 18 | 0% | 98% | |
| 19 | 0% | 98% | |
| 20 | 0% | 98% | |
| 21 | 0% | 98% | |
| 22 | 0% | 98% | |
| 23 | 0% | 98% | |
| 24 | 0% | 98% | |
| 25 | 0% | 98% | |
| 26 | 0% | 98% | |
| 27 | 0% | 98% | |
| 28 | 0% | 98% | |
| 29 | 0% | 98% | |
| 30 | 0% | 98% | |
| 31 | 0% | 98% | |
| 32 | 0% | 98% | |
| 33 | 0% | 98% | |
| 34 | 0% | 98% | |
| 35 | 0% | 98% | |
| 36 | 0% | 98% | |
| 37 | 0% | 98% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 3% | 98% | |
| 40 | 4% | 95% | |
| 41 | 4% | 91% | |
| 42 | 8% | 88% | |
| 43 | 8% | 80% | |
| 44 | 6% | 71% | |
| 45 | 12% | 66% | |
| 46 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 47 | 7% | 44% | |
| 48 | 11% | 37% | |
| 49 | 9% | 26% | |
| 50 | 3% | 17% | |
| 51 | 5% | 14% | |
| 52 | 4% | 9% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 54 | 2% | 4% | |
| 55 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98% | |
| 36 | 3% | 97% | |
| 37 | 4% | 94% | |
| 38 | 6% | 90% | |
| 39 | 8% | 84% | |
| 40 | 8% | 76% | |
| 41 | 10% | 67% | |
| 42 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 43 | 11% | 47% | |
| 44 | 9% | 37% | |
| 45 | 7% | 28% | |
| 46 | 7% | 21% | Last Result |
| 47 | 5% | 14% | |
| 48 | 4% | 10% | |
| 49 | 2% | 6% | |
| 50 | 2% | 4% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 466 | 482 | 100% | 475–495 | 473–497 | 470–500 | 463–525 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 393 | 450 | 100% | 439–461 | 437–464 | 434–468 | 429–486 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 479 | 438 | 100% | 428–449 | 425–453 | 423–457 | 418–475 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 420 | 400 | 100% | 390–411 | 387–415 | 384–419 | 379–433 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 313 | 358 | 65% | 347–370 | 345–373 | 342–376 | 338–388 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei | 300 | 355 | 52% | 344–365 | 341–369 | 339–373 | 334–385 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 399 | 347 | 17% | 337–358 | 333–362 | 331–365 | 326–375 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 326 | 313 | 0% | 303–323 | 299–327 | 297–331 | 292–339 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 340 | 308 | 0% | 298–319 | 295–323 | 293–326 | 288–335 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke | 289 | 309 | 0% | 298–319 | 294–322 | 290–325 | 276–330 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 220 | 263 | 0% | 253–274 | 250–277 | 248–280 | 243–288 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei | 233 | 217 | 0% | 208–228 | 205–230 | 203–233 | 198–240 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke | 222 | 172 | 0% | 162–180 | 159–184 | 155–185 | 131–190 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 459 | 0% | 100% | |
| 460 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 461 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 462 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 463 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 464 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 465 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 466 | 0.2% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 467 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 468 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 469 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 470 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 471 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 472 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 473 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 474 | 3% | 94% | |
| 475 | 4% | 92% | |
| 476 | 4% | 88% | |
| 477 | 6% | 84% | |
| 478 | 6% | 78% | |
| 479 | 5% | 72% | |
| 480 | 7% | 67% | |
| 481 | 5% | 60% | |
| 482 | 5% | 55% | |
| 483 | 4% | 50% | |
| 484 | 3% | 46% | Median |
| 485 | 2% | 43% | |
| 486 | 2% | 41% | |
| 487 | 2% | 39% | |
| 488 | 3% | 37% | |
| 489 | 4% | 34% | |
| 490 | 4% | 30% | |
| 491 | 4% | 26% | |
| 492 | 4% | 22% | |
| 493 | 4% | 18% | |
| 494 | 3% | 14% | |
| 495 | 3% | 11% | |
| 496 | 3% | 8% | |
| 497 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 498 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 499 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 500 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 501 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 502 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 503 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 504 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 505 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 506 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 507 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 508 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 509 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 510 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 511 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 512 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 513 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 514 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 515 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 516 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 517 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 518 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 519 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 520 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 521 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 522 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 523 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 524 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 525 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 526 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 527 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 528 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 529 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 530 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 531 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 393 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 394 | 0% | 100% | |
| 395 | 0% | 100% | |
| 396 | 0% | 100% | |
| 397 | 0% | 100% | |
| 398 | 0% | 100% | |
| 399 | 0% | 100% | |
| 400 | 0% | 100% | |
| 401 | 0% | 100% | |
| 402 | 0% | 100% | |
| 403 | 0% | 100% | |
| 404 | 0% | 100% | |
| 405 | 0% | 100% | |
| 406 | 0% | 100% | |
| 407 | 0% | 100% | |
| 408 | 0% | 100% | |
| 409 | 0% | 100% | |
| 410 | 0% | 100% | |
| 411 | 0% | 100% | |
| 412 | 0% | 100% | |
| 413 | 0% | 100% | |
| 414 | 0% | 100% | |
| 415 | 0% | 100% | |
| 416 | 0% | 100% | |
| 417 | 0% | 100% | |
| 418 | 0% | 100% | |
| 419 | 0% | 100% | |
| 420 | 0% | 100% | |
| 421 | 0% | 100% | |
| 422 | 0% | 100% | |
| 423 | 0% | 100% | |
| 424 | 0% | 100% | |
| 425 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 426 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 427 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 428 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 429 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 430 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 431 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 432 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 433 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 434 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 435 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 436 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 437 | 2% | 96% | |
| 438 | 2% | 94% | |
| 439 | 2% | 92% | |
| 440 | 2% | 90% | |
| 441 | 2% | 88% | |
| 442 | 2% | 85% | |
| 443 | 4% | 83% | |
| 444 | 4% | 79% | |
| 445 | 3% | 75% | |
| 446 | 5% | 72% | |
| 447 | 7% | 67% | |
| 448 | 3% | 60% | |
| 449 | 6% | 56% | |
| 450 | 4% | 50% | Median |
| 451 | 5% | 47% | |
| 452 | 4% | 42% | |
| 453 | 4% | 38% | |
| 454 | 5% | 34% | |
| 455 | 4% | 29% | |
| 456 | 3% | 24% | |
| 457 | 4% | 21% | |
| 458 | 3% | 18% | |
| 459 | 3% | 15% | |
| 460 | 2% | 12% | |
| 461 | 2% | 10% | |
| 462 | 2% | 8% | |
| 463 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 464 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 465 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 466 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 467 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 468 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 469 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 470 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 471 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 472 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 473 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 474 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 475 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 476 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 477 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 478 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 479 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 480 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 481 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 482 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 483 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 484 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 485 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 486 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 487 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 488 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 489 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 490 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 491 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 492 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 493 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 494 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 495 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 496 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 497 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 412 | 0% | 100% | |
| 413 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 414 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 415 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 416 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 417 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 418 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 419 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 420 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 421 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 422 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 423 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 424 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 425 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 426 | 2% | 95% | |
| 427 | 2% | 93% | |
| 428 | 2% | 91% | |
| 429 | 2% | 89% | |
| 430 | 2% | 87% | |
| 431 | 3% | 85% | |
| 432 | 4% | 82% | |
| 433 | 5% | 78% | |
| 434 | 5% | 73% | |
| 435 | 6% | 68% | |
| 436 | 3% | 62% | |
| 437 | 5% | 60% | |
| 438 | 5% | 54% | |
| 439 | 6% | 49% | Median |
| 440 | 5% | 44% | |
| 441 | 5% | 39% | |
| 442 | 4% | 34% | |
| 443 | 4% | 29% | |
| 444 | 3% | 25% | |
| 445 | 2% | 23% | |
| 446 | 3% | 20% | |
| 447 | 3% | 17% | |
| 448 | 3% | 14% | |
| 449 | 3% | 11% | |
| 450 | 2% | 8% | |
| 451 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 452 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 453 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 454 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 455 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 456 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 457 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 458 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 459 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 460 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 461 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 462 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 463 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 464 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 465 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 466 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 467 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 468 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 469 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 470 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 471 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 472 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 473 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 474 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 475 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 476 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 477 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 478 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 479 | 0% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 480 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 481 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 482 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 483 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 484 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 485 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 373 | 0% | 100% | |
| 374 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 375 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 376 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 377 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 378 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 379 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 380 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 381 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 382 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 383 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 384 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 385 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 386 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 387 | 2% | 95% | |
| 388 | 2% | 94% | |
| 389 | 2% | 92% | |
| 390 | 3% | 90% | |
| 391 | 3% | 88% | |
| 392 | 3% | 85% | |
| 393 | 3% | 83% | |
| 394 | 4% | 80% | |
| 395 | 5% | 76% | |
| 396 | 4% | 71% | |
| 397 | 4% | 67% | |
| 398 | 4% | 62% | |
| 399 | 5% | 58% | |
| 400 | 4% | 53% | |
| 401 | 5% | 49% | Median |
| 402 | 5% | 44% | |
| 403 | 4% | 39% | |
| 404 | 4% | 35% | |
| 405 | 4% | 30% | |
| 406 | 4% | 26% | |
| 407 | 3% | 23% | |
| 408 | 3% | 19% | |
| 409 | 3% | 16% | |
| 410 | 2% | 14% | |
| 411 | 2% | 12% | |
| 412 | 2% | 9% | |
| 413 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 414 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 415 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 416 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 417 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 418 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 419 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 420 | 0.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 421 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 422 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 423 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 424 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 425 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 426 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 427 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 428 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 429 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 430 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 431 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 432 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 433 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 434 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 435 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 436 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 437 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 438 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 439 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 440 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 441 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 442 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 443 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 444 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 445 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 313 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 314 | 0% | 100% | |
| 315 | 0% | 100% | |
| 316 | 0% | 100% | |
| 317 | 0% | 100% | |
| 318 | 0% | 100% | |
| 319 | 0% | 100% | |
| 320 | 0% | 100% | |
| 321 | 0% | 100% | |
| 322 | 0% | 100% | |
| 323 | 0% | 100% | |
| 324 | 0% | 100% | |
| 325 | 0% | 100% | |
| 326 | 0% | 100% | |
| 327 | 0% | 100% | |
| 328 | 0% | 100% | |
| 329 | 0% | 100% | |
| 330 | 0% | 100% | |
| 331 | 0% | 100% | |
| 332 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 333 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 334 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 336 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 337 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 338 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 339 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 340 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 341 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 342 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 343 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 344 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 345 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 346 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 347 | 3% | 93% | |
| 348 | 2% | 90% | |
| 349 | 2% | 88% | |
| 350 | 4% | 86% | |
| 351 | 2% | 82% | |
| 352 | 4% | 80% | |
| 353 | 6% | 76% | |
| 354 | 4% | 70% | |
| 355 | 4% | 65% | Majority |
| 356 | 4% | 62% | |
| 357 | 4% | 57% | |
| 358 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 359 | 4% | 47% | |
| 360 | 5% | 43% | |
| 361 | 4% | 38% | |
| 362 | 4% | 35% | |
| 363 | 3% | 31% | |
| 364 | 4% | 28% | |
| 365 | 4% | 24% | |
| 366 | 3% | 20% | |
| 367 | 2% | 18% | |
| 368 | 3% | 16% | |
| 369 | 2% | 13% | |
| 370 | 2% | 11% | |
| 371 | 2% | 9% | |
| 372 | 2% | 7% | |
| 373 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 374 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 375 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 376 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 377 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 378 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 379 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 380 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 381 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 382 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 383 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 384 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 385 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 386 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 387 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 388 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 391 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 393 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 300 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 301 | 0% | 100% | |
| 302 | 0% | 100% | |
| 303 | 0% | 100% | |
| 304 | 0% | 100% | |
| 305 | 0% | 100% | |
| 306 | 0% | 100% | |
| 307 | 0% | 100% | |
| 308 | 0% | 100% | |
| 309 | 0% | 100% | |
| 310 | 0% | 100% | |
| 311 | 0% | 100% | |
| 312 | 0% | 100% | |
| 313 | 0% | 100% | |
| 314 | 0% | 100% | |
| 315 | 0% | 100% | |
| 316 | 0% | 100% | |
| 317 | 0% | 100% | |
| 318 | 0% | 100% | |
| 319 | 0% | 100% | |
| 320 | 0% | 100% | |
| 321 | 0% | 100% | |
| 322 | 0% | 100% | |
| 323 | 0% | 100% | |
| 324 | 0% | 100% | |
| 325 | 0% | 100% | |
| 326 | 0% | 100% | |
| 327 | 0% | 100% | |
| 328 | 0% | 100% | |
| 329 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 330 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 333 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 334 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 335 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 336 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 337 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 338 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 339 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 340 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 341 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 342 | 2% | 95% | |
| 343 | 2% | 93% | |
| 344 | 2% | 91% | |
| 345 | 2% | 89% | |
| 346 | 3% | 87% | |
| 347 | 3% | 83% | |
| 348 | 2% | 80% | |
| 349 | 4% | 78% | |
| 350 | 5% | 74% | |
| 351 | 5% | 69% | |
| 352 | 4% | 65% | |
| 353 | 5% | 61% | |
| 354 | 4% | 56% | |
| 355 | 5% | 52% | Median, Majority |
| 356 | 4% | 46% | |
| 357 | 5% | 42% | |
| 358 | 4% | 37% | |
| 359 | 6% | 33% | |
| 360 | 3% | 27% | |
| 361 | 4% | 24% | |
| 362 | 4% | 20% | |
| 363 | 2% | 16% | |
| 364 | 2% | 14% | |
| 365 | 2% | 12% | |
| 366 | 2% | 10% | |
| 367 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 368 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 369 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 370 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 371 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 372 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 373 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 374 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 375 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 376 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 377 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 378 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 379 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 380 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 381 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 382 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 383 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 384 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 385 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 386 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 387 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 388 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 391 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 320 | 0% | 100% | |
| 321 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 324 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 326 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 327 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 328 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 329 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 330 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 331 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 332 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 333 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 334 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 335 | 2% | 94% | |
| 336 | 2% | 92% | |
| 337 | 2% | 90% | |
| 338 | 3% | 88% | |
| 339 | 4% | 85% | |
| 340 | 4% | 81% | |
| 341 | 5% | 77% | |
| 342 | 5% | 72% | |
| 343 | 4% | 67% | |
| 344 | 5% | 63% | |
| 345 | 3% | 58% | |
| 346 | 3% | 55% | |
| 347 | 4% | 52% | Median |
| 348 | 3% | 48% | |
| 349 | 5% | 45% | |
| 350 | 6% | 39% | |
| 351 | 5% | 34% | |
| 352 | 4% | 29% | |
| 353 | 5% | 25% | |
| 354 | 3% | 20% | |
| 355 | 2% | 17% | Majority |
| 356 | 2% | 15% | |
| 357 | 1.5% | 12% | |
| 358 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 359 | 2% | 10% | |
| 360 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 361 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 362 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 363 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 364 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 365 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 366 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 367 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 368 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 369 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 370 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 371 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 372 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 373 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 374 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 375 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 376 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 377 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 378 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 379 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 380 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 381 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 382 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 383 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 384 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 385 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 387 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 388 | 0% | 0% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0% | |
| 391 | 0% | 0% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 286 | 0% | 100% | |
| 287 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 288 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 293 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 294 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 295 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 296 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 297 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 298 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 299 | 2% | 96% | |
| 300 | 2% | 95% | |
| 301 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 302 | 1.3% | 92% | |
| 303 | 3% | 90% | |
| 304 | 3% | 87% | |
| 305 | 3% | 84% | |
| 306 | 2% | 80% | |
| 307 | 3% | 78% | |
| 308 | 5% | 75% | |
| 309 | 7% | 70% | |
| 310 | 3% | 63% | |
| 311 | 4% | 60% | |
| 312 | 5% | 56% | |
| 313 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 314 | 4% | 44% | |
| 315 | 3% | 40% | |
| 316 | 3% | 37% | |
| 317 | 6% | 34% | |
| 318 | 5% | 28% | |
| 319 | 2% | 23% | |
| 320 | 2% | 20% | |
| 321 | 3% | 18% | |
| 322 | 3% | 15% | |
| 323 | 2% | 12% | |
| 324 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 325 | 2% | 9% | |
| 326 | 1.2% | 7% | Last Result |
| 327 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 328 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 329 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 330 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 331 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 332 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 333 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 334 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 335 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 336 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 337 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 338 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 339 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 341 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 282 | 0% | 100% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 289 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 290 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 291 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 292 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 293 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 294 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 295 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 296 | 2% | 95% | |
| 297 | 2% | 93% | |
| 298 | 2% | 92% | |
| 299 | 3% | 90% | |
| 300 | 3% | 87% | |
| 301 | 4% | 85% | |
| 302 | 4% | 81% | |
| 303 | 3% | 77% | |
| 304 | 4% | 74% | |
| 305 | 6% | 69% | |
| 306 | 4% | 63% | |
| 307 | 5% | 59% | |
| 308 | 5% | 54% | |
| 309 | 4% | 49% | Median |
| 310 | 5% | 45% | |
| 311 | 4% | 40% | |
| 312 | 5% | 36% | |
| 313 | 3% | 31% | |
| 314 | 3% | 28% | |
| 315 | 3% | 24% | |
| 316 | 4% | 21% | |
| 317 | 3% | 17% | |
| 318 | 2% | 14% | |
| 319 | 2% | 12% | |
| 320 | 2% | 10% | |
| 321 | 2% | 8% | |
| 322 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 323 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 324 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 325 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 326 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 327 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 328 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 329 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 330 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 331 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 334 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 337 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 338 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 340 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 341 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 265 | 0% | 100% | |
| 266 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 267 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 268 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 269 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 270 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 272 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 273 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 274 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 277 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 287 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 288 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 289 | 0.3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 290 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 291 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 292 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 293 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 294 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 295 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 296 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 297 | 2% | 92% | |
| 298 | 2% | 91% | |
| 299 | 2% | 88% | |
| 300 | 3% | 86% | |
| 301 | 3% | 84% | |
| 302 | 3% | 81% | |
| 303 | 4% | 77% | |
| 304 | 4% | 74% | |
| 305 | 4% | 70% | |
| 306 | 4% | 65% | |
| 307 | 5% | 61% | |
| 308 | 5% | 56% | |
| 309 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 310 | 5% | 47% | |
| 311 | 4% | 42% | |
| 312 | 4% | 38% | |
| 313 | 4% | 33% | |
| 314 | 5% | 29% | |
| 315 | 4% | 24% | |
| 316 | 3% | 20% | |
| 317 | 3% | 17% | |
| 318 | 3% | 15% | |
| 319 | 3% | 12% | |
| 320 | 2% | 10% | |
| 321 | 2% | 8% | |
| 322 | 2% | 6% | |
| 323 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 324 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 325 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 326 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 327 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 328 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 329 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 330 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 220 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0% | 100% | |
| 223 | 0% | 100% | |
| 224 | 0% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 100% | |
| 226 | 0% | 100% | |
| 227 | 0% | 100% | |
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 100% | |
| 230 | 0% | 100% | |
| 231 | 0% | 100% | |
| 232 | 0% | 100% | |
| 233 | 0% | 100% | |
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 100% | |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 242 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 243 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 245 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 246 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 247 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 248 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 249 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 250 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 251 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 252 | 3% | 93% | |
| 253 | 2% | 90% | |
| 254 | 2% | 88% | |
| 255 | 3% | 86% | |
| 256 | 3% | 83% | |
| 257 | 5% | 80% | |
| 258 | 5% | 76% | |
| 259 | 4% | 71% | |
| 260 | 5% | 67% | |
| 261 | 4% | 62% | |
| 262 | 5% | 58% | |
| 263 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 264 | 3% | 47% | |
| 265 | 4% | 43% | |
| 266 | 5% | 39% | |
| 267 | 6% | 34% | |
| 268 | 4% | 28% | |
| 269 | 3% | 25% | |
| 270 | 3% | 21% | |
| 271 | 3% | 18% | |
| 272 | 3% | 15% | |
| 273 | 2% | 12% | |
| 274 | 2% | 10% | |
| 275 | 2% | 9% | |
| 276 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 277 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 278 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 279 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 280 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 281 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 282 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 283 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 284 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 202 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 203 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 204 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 205 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 206 | 2% | 95% | |
| 207 | 2% | 93% | |
| 208 | 3% | 91% | |
| 209 | 3% | 88% | |
| 210 | 3% | 85% | |
| 211 | 4% | 82% | |
| 212 | 4% | 78% | |
| 213 | 5% | 75% | |
| 214 | 6% | 70% | |
| 215 | 5% | 64% | |
| 216 | 6% | 60% | |
| 217 | 4% | 53% | |
| 218 | 6% | 49% | Median |
| 219 | 4% | 43% | |
| 220 | 5% | 39% | |
| 221 | 5% | 34% | |
| 222 | 3% | 29% | |
| 223 | 4% | 26% | |
| 224 | 3% | 22% | |
| 225 | 3% | 19% | |
| 226 | 3% | 16% | |
| 227 | 2% | 13% | |
| 228 | 3% | 10% | |
| 229 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 230 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 231 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 232 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 233 | 0.8% | 3% | Last Result |
| 234 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 235 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 236 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 237 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 239 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 242 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 243 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 244 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 245 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 246 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 247 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 248 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 249 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 140 | 0% | 98% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0% | 98% | |
| 145 | 0% | 98% | |
| 146 | 0% | 98% | |
| 147 | 0% | 98% | |
| 148 | 0% | 98% | |
| 149 | 0% | 98% | |
| 150 | 0% | 98% | |
| 151 | 0% | 98% | |
| 152 | 0% | 98% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 160 | 2% | 95% | |
| 161 | 3% | 93% | |
| 162 | 2% | 91% | |
| 163 | 3% | 89% | |
| 164 | 2% | 86% | |
| 165 | 3% | 84% | |
| 166 | 5% | 81% | |
| 167 | 6% | 76% | |
| 168 | 5% | 70% | |
| 169 | 5% | 66% | |
| 170 | 4% | 61% | |
| 171 | 5% | 58% | |
| 172 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 173 | 6% | 45% | |
| 174 | 5% | 39% | |
| 175 | 4% | 34% | |
| 176 | 4% | 30% | |
| 177 | 4% | 26% | |
| 178 | 5% | 22% | |
| 179 | 4% | 17% | |
| 180 | 3% | 13% | |
| 181 | 2% | 10% | |
| 182 | 2% | 8% | |
| 183 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 184 | 2% | 5% | |
| 185 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 16–19 July 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2064
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.50%