Opinion Poll by Kantar, 14–20 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.7% 21.3–24.2% 21.0–24.6% 20.6–25.0% 20.0–25.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.7–20.4% 17.3–20.8% 17.0–21.1% 16.4–21.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.4–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.6–18.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.0–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.4–13.8% 10.0–14.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.4% 9.4–12.7% 9.0–13.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 5.9–8.2% 5.7–8.4% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.6–6.1% 4.4–6.4% 4.2–6.6% 3.9–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 173 162–184 160–187 157–190 152–195
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 145 135–155 132–157 129–161 125–166
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 122 112–131 111–134 107–136 104–140
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 92 83–101 81–103 80–104 76–110
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 76–92 74–95 72–96 68–101
Die Linke 69 53 47–60 45–62 44–64 41–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 35–46 34–48 32–50 30–53

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.6%  
153 0.3% 99.4%  
154 0.3% 99.1%  
155 0.5% 98.9%  
156 0.6% 98%  
157 0.6% 98%  
158 1.0% 97%  
159 0.9% 96%  
160 2% 95%  
161 2% 93%  
162 2% 91%  
163 2% 89%  
164 2% 87%  
165 3% 85%  
166 3% 82%  
167 4% 78%  
168 4% 74%  
169 3% 70%  
170 5% 67%  
171 4% 61%  
172 5% 57%  
173 4% 52% Median
174 5% 47%  
175 4% 43%  
176 4% 38%  
177 6% 34%  
178 3% 29%  
179 4% 26%  
180 3% 22%  
181 3% 19%  
182 3% 16%  
183 2% 13%  
184 2% 11%  
185 1.4% 8%  
186 1.0% 7%  
187 1.4% 6%  
188 1.0% 4%  
189 0.6% 3%  
190 0.8% 3%  
191 0.3% 2%  
192 0.5% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.1%  
194 0.2% 0.8%  
195 0.1% 0.6%  
196 0.2% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.7%  
125 0.2% 99.6%  
126 0.3% 99.5%  
127 0.5% 99.2%  
128 0.6% 98.7%  
129 0.7% 98%  
130 0.7% 97%  
131 1.1% 97%  
132 1.3% 96%  
133 2% 94%  
134 2% 93%  
135 3% 90%  
136 3% 88%  
137 3% 85%  
138 3% 81%  
139 3% 79%  
140 5% 76%  
141 6% 71%  
142 6% 66%  
143 6% 60%  
144 4% 54%  
145 4% 50% Median
146 5% 47%  
147 5% 42%  
148 7% 37%  
149 4% 30%  
150 4% 26%  
151 3% 22%  
152 3% 19%  
153 3% 16%  
154 2% 13%  
155 3% 11%  
156 2% 8%  
157 2% 7%  
158 0.8% 5%  
159 0.7% 4%  
160 0.9% 3%  
161 0.7% 3%  
162 0.5% 2%  
163 0.4% 1.3%  
164 0.2% 0.9%  
165 0.2% 0.7%  
166 0.2% 0.5%  
167 0.1% 0.4%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0.1% 0.2%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0% 99.6%  
104 0.2% 99.6%  
105 0.6% 99.4%  
106 0.6% 98.8%  
107 0.7% 98%  
108 0.1% 97%  
109 0.2% 97%  
110 2% 97%  
111 3% 96%  
112 5% 92%  
113 4% 87%  
114 0.2% 84%  
115 2% 84%  
116 7% 82%  
117 6% 75%  
118 5% 69%  
119 2% 63%  
120 0.3% 61%  
121 4% 61%  
122 8% 57% Median
123 10% 49%  
124 9% 39%  
125 1.2% 30%  
126 1.2% 29%  
127 6% 27%  
128 6% 21%  
129 4% 15%  
130 1.5% 12%  
131 0.1% 10%  
132 0.7% 10%  
133 2% 9%  
134 2% 7%  
135 2% 5%  
136 0.4% 3%  
137 0.1% 2%  
138 0.7% 2%  
139 0.6% 1.4%  
140 0.4% 0.8%  
141 0.2% 0.5%  
142 0% 0.3%  
143 0% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.1% 99.7%  
76 0.3% 99.5%  
77 0.3% 99.3%  
78 0.5% 99.0%  
79 0.7% 98.5%  
80 0.9% 98% Last Result
81 2% 97%  
82 2% 95%  
83 4% 92%  
84 3% 89%  
85 4% 86%  
86 3% 82%  
87 4% 79%  
88 4% 75%  
89 5% 71%  
90 8% 66%  
91 6% 58%  
92 8% 53% Median
93 7% 44%  
94 7% 38%  
95 4% 30%  
96 4% 26%  
97 3% 23%  
98 2% 19%  
99 3% 17%  
100 3% 14%  
101 3% 11%  
102 3% 8%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.1% 4%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.4% 2%  
107 0.4% 1.4%  
108 0.2% 1.1%  
109 0.3% 0.8%  
110 0.2% 0.5%  
111 0.2% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.4% 99.4%  
70 0.5% 99.0%  
71 0.8% 98%  
72 0.5% 98%  
73 1.4% 97%  
74 1.4% 96%  
75 3% 94%  
76 3% 92%  
77 4% 89%  
78 3% 85%  
79 5% 82%  
80 6% 77%  
81 9% 71%  
82 8% 62%  
83 6% 54% Median
84 6% 48%  
85 4% 41%  
86 4% 37%  
87 6% 33%  
88 4% 27%  
89 5% 23%  
90 4% 19%  
91 2% 15%  
92 4% 13%  
93 2% 9%  
94 2% 7% Last Result
95 2% 5%  
96 0.9% 3%  
97 0.4% 2%  
98 0.4% 2%  
99 0.3% 1.1%  
100 0.3% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.2% 99.6%  
42 0.8% 99.4%  
43 0.9% 98.6%  
44 1.0% 98%  
45 3% 97%  
46 3% 94%  
47 3% 91%  
48 6% 88%  
49 5% 82%  
50 5% 77%  
51 9% 72%  
52 7% 62%  
53 6% 55% Median
54 9% 49%  
55 8% 40%  
56 5% 32%  
57 7% 27%  
58 4% 20%  
59 3% 16%  
60 5% 13%  
61 2% 8%  
62 1.4% 6%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.9% 3%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 0.6% 1.3%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.5%  
69 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.4% 99.6%  
31 0.9% 99.2%  
32 1.5% 98%  
33 2% 97%  
34 4% 95%  
35 4% 92%  
36 5% 88%  
37 8% 82%  
38 7% 74%  
39 9% 67%  
40 9% 58% Median
41 8% 49%  
42 8% 41%  
43 8% 33%  
44 6% 25%  
45 5% 19%  
46 5% 14% Last Result
47 3% 10%  
48 2% 7%  
49 1.5% 5%  
50 1.1% 3%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 0.4% 1.1%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 481 100% 468–492 465–495 462–498 456–503
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 450 100% 438–462 435–466 431–468 426–474
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 427 100% 415–439 412–443 408–445 402–452
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 389 100% 377–402 373–405 370–408 364–414
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 359 66% 346–371 342–375 339–377 333–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 358 65% 346–371 342–374 339–377 333–384
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 336 2% 323–348 319–351 316–354 310–361
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 320 0% 307–332 304–336 301–339 295–345
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 306 0% 293–318 290–321 287–324 281–330
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 297 0% 285–309 281–313 278–316 273–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 266 0% 254–278 251–282 248–285 243–291
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 214 0% 203–225 199–228 196–231 191–237
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 165–186 161–189 159–192 154–197

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
450 0% 100%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0.1% 99.8%  
455 0.1% 99.7%  
456 0.2% 99.6%  
457 0.1% 99.4%  
458 0.2% 99.2%  
459 0.2% 99.0%  
460 0.5% 98.8%  
461 0.5% 98%  
462 0.8% 98%  
463 0.6% 97%  
464 0.9% 96%  
465 1.3% 96%  
466 1.4% 94% Last Result
467 2% 93%  
468 2% 91%  
469 1.4% 89%  
470 2% 88%  
471 3% 86%  
472 4% 83%  
473 3% 79%  
474 3% 76%  
475 3% 73%  
476 5% 70%  
477 4% 66%  
478 5% 61%  
479 3% 56%  
480 3% 53% Median
481 6% 50%  
482 5% 45%  
483 6% 40%  
484 4% 34%  
485 3% 30%  
486 4% 27%  
487 3% 24%  
488 4% 20%  
489 2% 17%  
490 2% 15%  
491 2% 12%  
492 2% 11%  
493 2% 9%  
494 2% 7%  
495 0.7% 5%  
496 0.6% 4%  
497 1.1% 4%  
498 0.6% 3%  
499 0.8% 2%  
500 0.2% 1.3%  
501 0.2% 1.1%  
502 0.2% 0.9%  
503 0.2% 0.6%  
504 0.1% 0.5%  
505 0.1% 0.4%  
506 0% 0.3%  
507 0.1% 0.2%  
508 0% 0.2%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.8%  
424 0.1% 99.8%  
425 0.1% 99.6%  
426 0.2% 99.6%  
427 0.2% 99.4%  
428 0.3% 99.2%  
429 0.3% 98.9%  
430 0.5% 98.5%  
431 0.7% 98%  
432 0.5% 97%  
433 0.8% 97%  
434 0.9% 96%  
435 1.0% 95%  
436 2% 94%  
437 1.2% 92%  
438 3% 91%  
439 2% 89%  
440 2% 87%  
441 3% 85%  
442 2% 82%  
443 4% 81%  
444 5% 77%  
445 3% 72%  
446 5% 69%  
447 3% 65%  
448 5% 62%  
449 3% 57%  
450 5% 54% Median
451 5% 49%  
452 4% 44%  
453 5% 40%  
454 3% 35%  
455 3% 32%  
456 3% 29%  
457 3% 26%  
458 4% 23%  
459 2% 19%  
460 3% 17%  
461 3% 14%  
462 1.4% 11%  
463 2% 9%  
464 1.4% 8%  
465 1.0% 6%  
466 0.9% 5%  
467 1.2% 4%  
468 0.7% 3%  
469 0.5% 2%  
470 0.5% 2%  
471 0.3% 1.4%  
472 0.3% 1.1%  
473 0.1% 0.8%  
474 0.2% 0.6%  
475 0.1% 0.5%  
476 0.1% 0.4%  
477 0.1% 0.3%  
478 0% 0.2%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0.1% 99.9%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0.1% 99.7%  
402 0.2% 99.6%  
403 0.1% 99.5%  
404 0.3% 99.4%  
405 0.4% 99.0%  
406 0.3% 98.6%  
407 0.5% 98%  
408 0.4% 98%  
409 0.9% 97%  
410 0.6% 96%  
411 0.9% 96%  
412 1.2% 95%  
413 1.4% 94%  
414 2% 92%  
415 2% 91%  
416 2% 88%  
417 3% 87%  
418 2% 84%  
419 3% 82%  
420 3% 79%  
421 4% 76%  
422 3% 72%  
423 5% 69%  
424 3% 64%  
425 5% 61%  
426 3% 57%  
427 6% 54% Median
428 2% 48%  
429 4% 46%  
430 4% 41%  
431 5% 37%  
432 3% 33%  
433 4% 30%  
434 3% 25%  
435 4% 22%  
436 2% 18%  
437 3% 17%  
438 2% 13%  
439 2% 12%  
440 1.5% 10%  
441 1.4% 8%  
442 1.1% 7%  
443 2% 6%  
444 0.4% 4%  
445 1.2% 4%  
446 0.5% 2%  
447 0.5% 2%  
448 0.2% 1.4%  
449 0.3% 1.2%  
450 0.2% 0.9%  
451 0.2% 0.7%  
452 0.1% 0.5%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.4%  
366 0.2% 99.2%  
367 0.3% 99.1%  
368 0.3% 98.8%  
369 0.5% 98%  
370 0.5% 98%  
371 0.8% 97%  
372 0.9% 97%  
373 1.0% 96%  
374 1.4% 95%  
375 1.3% 93%  
376 2% 92%  
377 2% 90%  
378 2% 89%  
379 2% 86%  
380 2% 84%  
381 3% 82%  
382 3% 79%  
383 5% 77%  
384 3% 72%  
385 4% 68%  
386 4% 64%  
387 4% 60%  
388 4% 57% Median
389 4% 52%  
390 4% 49%  
391 4% 45%  
392 3% 41%  
393 4% 37%  
394 4% 34%  
395 3% 30%  
396 2% 27%  
397 4% 24%  
398 3% 20%  
399 3% 17%  
400 2% 15%  
401 2% 12%  
402 2% 10%  
403 2% 8%  
404 0.9% 7%  
405 1.4% 6%  
406 0.9% 4%  
407 0.7% 3%  
408 0.4% 3%  
409 0.6% 2%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0.3% 1.4%  
412 0.3% 1.1%  
413 0.2% 0.8%  
414 0.2% 0.7%  
415 0.1% 0.5%  
416 0.1% 0.4%  
417 0.1% 0.3%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.2% 99.6%  
334 0.1% 99.4%  
335 0.2% 99.3%  
336 0.3% 99.2%  
337 0.5% 98.9%  
338 0.8% 98%  
339 0.5% 98%  
340 0.3% 97%  
341 0.7% 97%  
342 1.1% 96%  
343 2% 95%  
344 1.4% 93%  
345 1.2% 92%  
346 1.1% 90%  
347 2% 89%  
348 3% 87%  
349 4% 85%  
350 2% 81%  
351 2% 79%  
352 2% 77%  
353 4% 75%  
354 5% 71%  
355 7% 66% Majority
356 2% 59%  
357 2% 57%  
358 5% 55% Median
359 6% 50%  
360 5% 45%  
361 4% 40%  
362 2% 35%  
363 2% 33%  
364 3% 31%  
365 4% 28%  
366 5% 23%  
367 2% 18%  
368 1.4% 17%  
369 2% 15%  
370 2% 13%  
371 2% 11%  
372 2% 9%  
373 1.0% 7%  
374 0.6% 6%  
375 0.8% 5%  
376 1.2% 4%  
377 0.8% 3%  
378 0.6% 2%  
379 0.2% 2%  
380 0.2% 2%  
381 0.4% 1.3%  
382 0.3% 0.9%  
383 0.2% 0.7%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.8%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.1% 99.6%  
334 0.2% 99.5%  
335 0.3% 99.3%  
336 0.3% 99.0%  
337 0.4% 98.7%  
338 0.5% 98%  
339 0.6% 98%  
340 0.9% 97%  
341 0.6% 96%  
342 0.9% 96%  
343 1.4% 95%  
344 1.4% 94%  
345 2% 92%  
346 2% 91%  
347 2% 89%  
348 3% 87%  
349 2% 84%  
350 3% 82%  
351 3% 79%  
352 4% 76%  
353 4% 72%  
354 3% 68%  
355 4% 65% Majority
356 4% 61%  
357 4% 57%  
358 4% 53%  
359 4% 49% Median
360 5% 45%  
361 3% 40%  
362 3% 37%  
363 4% 34%  
364 4% 30%  
365 3% 26%  
366 3% 23%  
367 3% 19%  
368 3% 17%  
369 2% 14%  
370 2% 12%  
371 1.5% 10%  
372 2% 9%  
373 2% 7%  
374 0.9% 6%  
375 0.6% 5%  
376 1.0% 4%  
377 0.5% 3%  
378 0.5% 2%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.3% 1.5%  
381 0.2% 1.2%  
382 0.2% 0.9%  
383 0.2% 0.7%  
384 0.1% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0.1% 99.6%  
311 0.2% 99.5%  
312 0.3% 99.3%  
313 0.3% 99.0%  
314 0.3% 98.7%  
315 0.5% 98%  
316 0.7% 98%  
317 0.8% 97%  
318 0.9% 96%  
319 1.0% 96%  
320 0.9% 95%  
321 1.2% 94%  
322 2% 92%  
323 2% 91%  
324 2% 89%  
325 2% 87%  
326 3% 85%  
327 2% 82%  
328 3% 79%  
329 4% 76%  
330 2% 71%  
331 4% 69%  
332 4% 65%  
333 4% 61%  
334 4% 58%  
335 4% 54% Median
336 4% 50%  
337 5% 46%  
338 4% 41%  
339 5% 37%  
340 3% 32%  
341 4% 29%  
342 3% 25%  
343 3% 22%  
344 2% 20%  
345 2% 18%  
346 3% 16%  
347 3% 13%  
348 2% 11%  
349 1.4% 9%  
350 1.3% 7%  
351 1.4% 6%  
352 1.0% 5%  
353 0.6% 4%  
354 0.7% 3%  
355 0.3% 2% Majority
356 0.4% 2%  
357 0.4% 2%  
358 0.3% 1.2%  
359 0.2% 0.9%  
360 0.1% 0.6%  
361 0.2% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.2% 99.5%  
296 0.2% 99.3%  
297 0.3% 99.2%  
298 0.3% 98.9%  
299 0.4% 98.6%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 0.4% 98%  
302 0.7% 97%  
303 0.9% 97%  
304 1.4% 96%  
305 0.9% 94%  
306 2% 93%  
307 2% 92%  
308 2% 90%  
309 2% 88%  
310 3% 85%  
311 3% 83%  
312 4% 80%  
313 2% 76%  
314 3% 73%  
315 4% 70%  
316 4% 66%  
317 3% 63%  
318 4% 59%  
319 4% 55%  
320 4% 51% Median
321 4% 48%  
322 4% 43%  
323 4% 40%  
324 4% 36%  
325 3% 32%  
326 5% 28%  
327 3% 23%  
328 3% 21%  
329 2% 18%  
330 2% 16%  
331 2% 14%  
332 2% 11%  
333 2% 10%  
334 1.3% 8%  
335 1.4% 7%  
336 1.0% 5%  
337 0.9% 4%  
338 0.8% 3%  
339 0.5% 3%  
340 0.5% 2%  
341 0.3% 2%  
342 0.3% 1.2%  
343 0.2% 0.9%  
344 0.2% 0.8%  
345 0.2% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.6%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0.2% 99.4%  
283 0.3% 99.2%  
284 0.3% 98.9%  
285 0.4% 98.6%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 0.6% 98%  
288 0.8% 97%  
289 1.1% 96%  
290 1.0% 95%  
291 1.3% 94%  
292 2% 93%  
293 2% 91%  
294 2% 89%  
295 3% 87%  
296 2% 84%  
297 4% 82%  
298 2% 78%  
299 4% 76%  
300 4% 73%  
301 3% 69%  
302 3% 65%  
303 6% 62%  
304 3% 56%  
305 3% 54% Median
306 3% 50%  
307 5% 47%  
308 4% 42%  
309 4% 38%  
310 3% 34%  
311 3% 31%  
312 3% 27%  
313 3% 24%  
314 3% 21%  
315 3% 18%  
316 2% 15%  
317 2% 13%  
318 2% 11%  
319 2% 9%  
320 1.3% 7%  
321 1.3% 6%  
322 0.7% 5%  
323 0.9% 4%  
324 0.6% 3%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.5% 2% Last Result
327 0.2% 1.4%  
328 0.2% 1.1%  
329 0.2% 0.9%  
330 0.2% 0.7%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.2% 99.5%  
274 0.2% 99.4%  
275 0.3% 99.2%  
276 0.3% 98.9%  
277 0.4% 98.6%  
278 0.8% 98%  
279 0.4% 97%  
280 0.7% 97%  
281 1.4% 96%  
282 1.3% 95%  
283 0.9% 94%  
284 2% 93%  
285 2% 91%  
286 3% 90%  
287 2% 87%  
288 2% 85%  
289 4% 83%  
290 2% 79%  
291 5% 77%  
292 3% 73%  
293 4% 70%  
294 3% 66%  
295 6% 63%  
296 4% 57% Median
297 3% 53%  
298 4% 49%  
299 3% 45%  
300 3% 41%  
301 3% 38%  
302 6% 35%  
303 3% 29%  
304 2% 26%  
305 4% 24%  
306 3% 20%  
307 2% 17%  
308 3% 15%  
309 3% 12%  
310 1.1% 9%  
311 1.4% 8%  
312 1.4% 7%  
313 0.7% 6%  
314 0.8% 5%  
315 0.9% 4%  
316 0.7% 3%  
317 0.4% 2%  
318 0.5% 2%  
319 0.4% 1.4%  
320 0.3% 1.1%  
321 0.2% 0.8%  
322 0.2% 0.7%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.2% 99.5%  
244 0.3% 99.3%  
245 0.3% 99.1%  
246 0.5% 98.7%  
247 0.4% 98%  
248 0.7% 98%  
249 0.7% 97%  
250 0.7% 97%  
251 1.4% 96%  
252 2% 94%  
253 1.3% 93%  
254 2% 91%  
255 2% 90%  
256 1.4% 88%  
257 4% 86%  
258 3% 82%  
259 3% 79%  
260 2% 76%  
261 4% 74%  
262 3% 70%  
263 4% 67%  
264 6% 63%  
265 4% 57%  
266 5% 54%  
267 4% 49% Median
268 3% 45%  
269 4% 41%  
270 4% 38%  
271 3% 33%  
272 5% 30%  
273 3% 25%  
274 2% 22%  
275 3% 20%  
276 3% 17%  
277 3% 14%  
278 1.3% 11%  
279 2% 10%  
280 1.5% 8%  
281 1.0% 7%  
282 1.1% 6%  
283 1.4% 5%  
284 0.8% 3%  
285 0.5% 3%  
286 0.4% 2%  
287 0.3% 2%  
288 0.3% 1.4%  
289 0.3% 1.1%  
290 0.3% 0.8%  
291 0.2% 0.6%  
292 0.1% 0.4%  
293 0.1% 0.3%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
185 0% 100%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0.1% 99.8%  
189 0.1% 99.8%  
190 0.1% 99.7%  
191 0.1% 99.6%  
192 0.2% 99.5%  
193 0.4% 99.2%  
194 0.4% 98.9%  
195 0.6% 98%  
196 0.8% 98%  
197 0.8% 97%  
198 0.8% 96%  
199 1.1% 95%  
200 1.1% 94%  
201 1.5% 93%  
202 2% 92%  
203 3% 90%  
204 3% 87%  
205 3% 84%  
206 4% 81%  
207 4% 78%  
208 4% 74%  
209 4% 70%  
210 4% 67%  
211 4% 63%  
212 4% 59%  
213 4% 55%  
214 4% 51% Median
215 4% 47%  
216 6% 43%  
217 5% 37%  
218 5% 32%  
219 4% 27%  
220 3% 23%  
221 2% 21%  
222 2% 18%  
223 2% 16%  
224 2% 14%  
225 2% 12%  
226 2% 10%  
227 2% 8%  
228 1.3% 6%  
229 1.0% 4%  
230 0.6% 3%  
231 0.5% 3%  
232 0.5% 2%  
233 0.4% 2% Last Result
234 0.3% 1.4%  
235 0.3% 1.1%  
236 0.2% 0.8%  
237 0.2% 0.6%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.3%  
240 0.1% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0.1% 99.7%  
154 0.2% 99.6%  
155 0.2% 99.4%  
156 0.4% 99.1%  
157 0.4% 98.8%  
158 0.4% 98%  
159 1.0% 98%  
160 0.7% 97%  
161 1.3% 96%  
162 1.5% 95%  
163 2% 93%  
164 2% 92%  
165 3% 90%  
166 2% 87%  
167 4% 85%  
168 3% 81%  
169 4% 78%  
170 3% 74%  
171 4% 70%  
172 5% 66%  
173 5% 61%  
174 4% 56%  
175 5% 52% Median
176 5% 48%  
177 4% 43%  
178 5% 39%  
179 3% 34%  
180 5% 30%  
181 2% 25%  
182 4% 22%  
183 2% 18%  
184 3% 16%  
185 2% 13%  
186 2% 11%  
187 2% 9%  
188 2% 7%  
189 1.0% 6%  
190 1.2% 5%  
191 0.7% 3%  
192 0.6% 3%  
193 0.6% 2%  
194 0.4% 2%  
195 0.4% 1.2%  
196 0.2% 0.8%  
197 0.3% 0.7%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations