Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 3–22 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 24.4% 22.9–26.0% 22.4–26.4% 22.1–26.9% 21.4–27.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.5% 18.1–21.0% 17.7–21.4% 17.4–21.8% 16.7–22.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.8% 14.1–18.2% 13.5–18.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.6% 10.3–13.9% 9.8–14.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.5% 8.5–10.7% 8.2–11.0% 8.0–11.3% 7.5–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.6% 4.9–6.6% 4.7–6.8% 4.5–7.1% 4.1–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 183 172–196 167–198 165–201 161–207
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 147 135–157 132–160 130–163 125–168
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 110–131 107–134 105–136 101–141
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 90 81–99 79–102 77–104 73–109
Alternative für Deutschland 94 72 64–80 61–82 60–84 56–89
Die Linke 69 53 46–60 44–62 43–64 40–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 45 39–52 38–54 37–56 34–59

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.8%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0.1% 99.7%  
161 0.2% 99.5%  
162 0.3% 99.3%  
163 0.6% 99.0%  
164 0.9% 98%  
165 0.7% 98%  
166 1.3% 97%  
167 1.0% 96%  
168 1.1% 95%  
169 1.2% 93%  
170 1.0% 92%  
171 1.0% 91%  
172 3% 90%  
173 3% 87%  
174 4% 84%  
175 5% 80%  
176 4% 75%  
177 5% 71%  
178 4% 66%  
179 3% 61%  
180 3% 58%  
181 3% 55%  
182 2% 53%  
183 3% 51% Median
184 4% 47%  
185 4% 43%  
186 4% 39%  
187 4% 34%  
188 5% 30%  
189 4% 25%  
190 4% 21%  
191 1.4% 18%  
192 2% 16%  
193 1.1% 14%  
194 1.5% 13%  
195 1.4% 11%  
196 1.3% 10%  
197 2% 9%  
198 2% 7%  
199 1.0% 5%  
200 1.1% 4% Last Result
201 0.8% 3%  
202 0.5% 2%  
203 0.3% 1.4%  
204 0.2% 1.1%  
205 0.1% 1.0%  
206 0.2% 0.9%  
207 0.2% 0.7%  
208 0.1% 0.5%  
209 0.2% 0.4%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0.1% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.7%  
125 0.2% 99.6%  
126 0.2% 99.5%  
127 0.4% 99.2%  
128 0.4% 98.9%  
129 0.7% 98%  
130 0.8% 98%  
131 1.2% 97%  
132 1.2% 96%  
133 2% 95%  
134 2% 93%  
135 2% 90%  
136 3% 88%  
137 3% 85%  
138 3% 82%  
139 3% 79%  
140 4% 76%  
141 3% 72%  
142 5% 69%  
143 4% 65%  
144 3% 61%  
145 4% 58%  
146 3% 53%  
147 4% 50% Median
148 4% 46%  
149 4% 42%  
150 4% 38%  
151 5% 33%  
152 4% 28%  
153 4% 25%  
154 3% 20%  
155 2% 17%  
156 4% 15%  
157 2% 11%  
158 2% 9%  
159 2% 7%  
160 0.7% 5%  
161 0.9% 5%  
162 0.9% 4%  
163 0.5% 3%  
164 0.5% 2%  
165 0.4% 2%  
166 0.3% 1.3%  
167 0.3% 1.0%  
168 0.2% 0.6%  
169 0.1% 0.5%  
170 0.1% 0.4%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.2% 99.6%  
102 0.4% 99.4%  
103 0.3% 98.9%  
104 0.9% 98.6%  
105 0.5% 98%  
106 2% 97%  
107 0.9% 96%  
108 2% 95%  
109 2% 93%  
110 3% 91%  
111 2% 88%  
112 3% 87%  
113 3% 83%  
114 4% 80%  
115 4% 76%  
116 5% 73%  
117 5% 68%  
118 4% 63%  
119 6% 59%  
120 5% 54% Median
121 6% 49%  
122 3% 43%  
123 6% 40%  
124 4% 34%  
125 5% 30%  
126 4% 25%  
127 3% 22%  
128 3% 18%  
129 3% 16%  
130 3% 13%  
131 2% 10%  
132 2% 8%  
133 1.2% 7%  
134 2% 6%  
135 0.7% 4%  
136 0.9% 3%  
137 0.5% 2%  
138 0.6% 2%  
139 0.2% 1.1%  
140 0.3% 0.9%  
141 0.2% 0.6%  
142 0.2% 0.4%  
143 0.1% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.6%  
74 0.3% 99.4%  
75 0.5% 99.1%  
76 0.8% 98.6%  
77 0.9% 98%  
78 1.1% 97%  
79 2% 96%  
80 2% 94% Last Result
81 2% 91%  
82 4% 90%  
83 3% 86%  
84 4% 83%  
85 4% 79%  
86 5% 74%  
87 5% 69%  
88 6% 64%  
89 6% 58%  
90 5% 53% Median
91 7% 47%  
92 4% 40%  
93 6% 36%  
94 4% 30%  
95 5% 26%  
96 4% 21%  
97 3% 18%  
98 3% 15%  
99 2% 11%  
100 2% 9%  
101 1.2% 7%  
102 2% 5%  
103 0.8% 4%  
104 0.9% 3%  
105 0.5% 2%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 0.3% 1.1%  
108 0.3% 0.8%  
109 0.2% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 0.4% 99.5%  
58 0.5% 99.1%  
59 0.7% 98.6%  
60 1.4% 98%  
61 2% 96%  
62 2% 95%  
63 3% 93%  
64 3% 90%  
65 3% 87%  
66 4% 84%  
67 5% 79%  
68 5% 74%  
69 6% 69%  
70 7% 64%  
71 6% 57%  
72 7% 51% Median
73 6% 44%  
74 6% 37%  
75 5% 31%  
76 5% 26%  
77 5% 20%  
78 3% 16%  
79 3% 13%  
80 3% 10%  
81 2% 7%  
82 1.3% 5%  
83 1.3% 4%  
84 0.6% 3%  
85 0.5% 2%  
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.1%  
88 0.2% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 99.6%  
41 0.6% 99.2%  
42 0.7% 98.6%  
43 1.5% 98%  
44 2% 96%  
45 3% 94%  
46 4% 92%  
47 4% 88%  
48 4% 84%  
49 6% 79%  
50 7% 73%  
51 7% 65%  
52 7% 58%  
53 8% 52% Median
54 6% 44%  
55 7% 37%  
56 6% 30%  
57 5% 24%  
58 4% 19%  
59 4% 15%  
60 3% 11%  
61 2% 8%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.4% 4%  
64 1.0% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.5% 1.3%  
67 0.3% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.6%  
35 0.6% 99.2%  
36 1.1% 98.6%  
37 2% 98%  
38 2% 95%  
39 4% 93%  
40 6% 89%  
41 5% 83%  
42 7% 78%  
43 6% 71%  
44 7% 65%  
45 9% 58% Median
46 8% 49% Last Result
47 6% 41%  
48 6% 34%  
49 6% 28%  
50 5% 22%  
51 5% 17%  
52 4% 12%  
53 2% 9%  
54 2% 7%  
55 2% 5%  
56 1.2% 3%  
57 0.7% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.3%  
59 0.3% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 495 100% 483–507 479–510 475–513 470–519
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 464 100% 450–479 447–481 444–483 440–489
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 439 100% 425–451 421–455 418–458 412–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 387 100% 377–404 374–407 372–409 364–414
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 374 97% 361–388 357–391 354–395 348–402
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 357 58% 342–370 338–374 336–376 330–382
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 349 30% 335–361 332–365 328–369 321–376
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 315 0.1% 305–333 303–335 301–337 293–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 322 0% 305–332 302–335 300–337 295–345
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 299 0% 286–314 283–318 280–320 274–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 270 0% 252–279 250–281 248–283 244–292
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 210 0% 198–223 195–226 192–229 187–235
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 173 0% 161–185 158–189 156–191 150–196

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
463 0% 100%  
464 0% 99.9%  
465 0.1% 99.9%  
466 0% 99.8% Last Result
467 0.1% 99.8%  
468 0.1% 99.7%  
469 0.1% 99.7%  
470 0.1% 99.5%  
471 0.1% 99.4%  
472 0.3% 99.2%  
473 0.4% 98.9%  
474 0.5% 98.5%  
475 0.5% 98%  
476 0.4% 97%  
477 0.7% 97%  
478 1.2% 96%  
479 0.9% 95%  
480 1.2% 94%  
481 1.3% 93%  
482 2% 92%  
483 3% 90%  
484 2% 87%  
485 2% 86%  
486 3% 83%  
487 4% 80%  
488 4% 77%  
489 3% 73%  
490 4% 70%  
491 5% 67%  
492 4% 62%  
493 3% 58%  
494 5% 55%  
495 5% 51% Median
496 4% 46%  
497 3% 42%  
498 6% 39%  
499 4% 33%  
500 3% 29%  
501 3% 26%  
502 3% 23%  
503 3% 20%  
504 3% 17%  
505 1.3% 14%  
506 2% 13%  
507 2% 11%  
508 2% 9%  
509 1.5% 7%  
510 1.0% 5%  
511 0.7% 4%  
512 0.8% 4%  
513 0.7% 3%  
514 0.4% 2%  
515 0.3% 2%  
516 0.4% 1.5%  
517 0.4% 1.1%  
518 0.2% 0.7%  
519 0.1% 0.5%  
520 0.1% 0.4%  
521 0.1% 0.4%  
522 0.1% 0.3%  
523 0% 0.2%  
524 0% 0.2%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0.1%  
527 0% 0.1%  
528 0% 0.1%  
529 0% 0.1%  
530 0% 0.1%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0.1%  
536 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 99.9%  
433 0% 99.9%  
434 0% 99.9%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0% 99.8%  
437 0% 99.8%  
438 0.1% 99.8%  
439 0.1% 99.7%  
440 0.1% 99.6%  
441 0.3% 99.4%  
442 0.4% 99.1%  
443 0.5% 98.8%  
444 0.8% 98%  
445 0.9% 97%  
446 1.3% 97%  
447 1.1% 95%  
448 2% 94%  
449 1.1% 93%  
450 2% 91%  
451 1.3% 89%  
452 1.0% 88%  
453 1.0% 87%  
454 0.9% 86%  
455 0.9% 85%  
456 1.5% 84%  
457 2% 82%  
458 3% 81%  
459 4% 78%  
460 4% 74%  
461 5% 69%  
462 6% 64%  
463 6% 58%  
464 6% 52%  
465 6% 46% Median
466 6% 40%  
467 3% 34%  
468 3% 31%  
469 3% 28%  
470 2% 25%  
471 1.5% 24%  
472 1.3% 22%  
473 2% 21%  
474 2% 20%  
475 2% 18%  
476 2% 16%  
477 2% 14%  
478 2% 12%  
479 2% 10%  
480 2% 8%  
481 1.4% 6%  
482 1.0% 4%  
483 0.9% 3%  
484 0.7% 2%  
485 0.5% 2%  
486 0.4% 1.3%  
487 0.2% 0.9%  
488 0.1% 0.7%  
489 0.1% 0.6%  
490 0.1% 0.5%  
491 0.1% 0.4%  
492 0.1% 0.4%  
493 0.1% 0.3%  
494 0% 0.3%  
495 0% 0.2%  
496 0% 0.2%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0.1%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.8%  
410 0.1% 99.8%  
411 0.1% 99.7%  
412 0.1% 99.6%  
413 0.2% 99.5%  
414 0.2% 99.3%  
415 0.2% 99.1%  
416 0.6% 98.9%  
417 0.4% 98%  
418 0.4% 98%  
419 0.7% 97%  
420 0.7% 97%  
421 1.1% 96%  
422 1.2% 95%  
423 1.3% 94%  
424 0.9% 92%  
425 3% 92%  
426 1.3% 89%  
427 2% 88%  
428 3% 86%  
429 2% 82%  
430 3% 81%  
431 3% 77%  
432 2% 74%  
433 4% 72%  
434 4% 68%  
435 2% 64%  
436 5% 62%  
437 4% 57%  
438 3% 54% Median
439 6% 51%  
440 4% 45%  
441 3% 42%  
442 4% 39%  
443 4% 35%  
444 2% 31%  
445 4% 29%  
446 3% 24%  
447 2% 22%  
448 4% 20%  
449 3% 16%  
450 2% 14%  
451 2% 12%  
452 1.2% 10%  
453 1.4% 9%  
454 1.1% 7%  
455 1.4% 6%  
456 0.8% 5%  
457 1.2% 4%  
458 0.4% 3%  
459 0.3% 2%  
460 0.6% 2%  
461 0.3% 1.5%  
462 0.3% 1.2%  
463 0.2% 0.9%  
464 0.1% 0.7%  
465 0.1% 0.6%  
466 0.2% 0.5%  
467 0% 0.3%  
468 0.1% 0.3%  
469 0.1% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.7%  
362 0% 99.7%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.1% 99.5%  
366 0.1% 99.4%  
367 0.1% 99.4%  
368 0.2% 99.3%  
369 0.2% 99.1%  
370 0.3% 98.9%  
371 0.5% 98.6%  
372 0.8% 98%  
373 1.1% 97%  
374 2% 96%  
375 2% 94%  
376 2% 93%  
377 4% 91%  
378 3% 87%  
379 5% 84%  
380 4% 79%  
381 5% 75%  
382 4% 71%  
383 5% 67%  
384 4% 61%  
385 4% 58%  
386 3% 54%  
387 2% 51%  
388 2% 49%  
389 1.2% 47%  
390 1.3% 46% Median
391 1.3% 44%  
392 1.1% 43%  
393 1.5% 42%  
394 1.2% 40%  
395 2% 39%  
396 2% 37%  
397 2% 35%  
398 3% 32%  
399 4% 29%  
400 2% 25%  
401 4% 23%  
402 3% 19%  
403 3% 16%  
404 3% 13%  
405 2% 10%  
406 2% 8%  
407 1.4% 6%  
408 1.2% 4%  
409 1.0% 3%  
410 0.6% 2%  
411 0.4% 1.4%  
412 0.3% 1.0%  
413 0.2% 0.7%  
414 0.1% 0.5%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0% 0.4%  
417 0% 0.3%  
418 0% 0.3%  
419 0% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.2% Last Result
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.1% 99.7%  
348 0.1% 99.5%  
349 0.3% 99.4%  
350 0.3% 99.1%  
351 0.3% 98.8%  
352 0.3% 98.5%  
353 0.5% 98%  
354 0.6% 98%  
355 0.6% 97% Majority
356 0.7% 97%  
357 1.1% 96%  
358 1.1% 95%  
359 1.2% 94%  
360 2% 92%  
361 2% 91%  
362 2% 89%  
363 2% 87%  
364 3% 85%  
365 3% 83%  
366 2% 80%  
367 4% 78%  
368 4% 74%  
369 3% 71%  
370 4% 67%  
371 3% 63%  
372 4% 61%  
373 4% 57%  
374 4% 52%  
375 3% 48% Median
376 6% 45%  
377 2% 40%  
378 4% 38%  
379 3% 33%  
380 3% 30%  
381 3% 27%  
382 3% 24%  
383 3% 21%  
384 2% 18%  
385 2% 16%  
386 2% 14%  
387 2% 12%  
388 2% 10%  
389 1.2% 8%  
390 1.1% 7%  
391 1.2% 6%  
392 1.0% 5%  
393 0.7% 4%  
394 0.8% 3%  
395 0.4% 3%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.4% 2%  
398 0.3% 1.3%  
399 0.3% 1.1%  
400 0.2% 0.8%  
401 0.1% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.1% 99.7%  
330 0.2% 99.6%  
331 0.2% 99.4%  
332 0.2% 99.2%  
333 0.4% 99.1%  
334 0.6% 98.7%  
335 0.5% 98%  
336 0.5% 98%  
337 1.1% 97%  
338 1.4% 96%  
339 0.8% 95%  
340 1.4% 94%  
341 2% 92%  
342 2% 90%  
343 2% 88%  
344 2% 87%  
345 4% 85%  
346 2% 81%  
347 2% 79%  
348 3% 77%  
349 3% 74%  
350 3% 72%  
351 2% 69%  
352 3% 67%  
353 3% 64%  
354 3% 61%  
355 3% 58% Majority
356 2% 54%  
357 3% 52% Median
358 4% 49%  
359 2% 46%  
360 4% 43%  
361 3% 39%  
362 3% 36%  
363 3% 33%  
364 4% 30%  
365 2% 25%  
366 3% 23%  
367 5% 21%  
368 2% 16%  
369 1.3% 14%  
370 4% 13%  
371 2% 9%  
372 0.8% 7%  
373 1.1% 6%  
374 1.3% 5%  
375 1.2% 4%  
376 0.5% 3%  
377 0.5% 2%  
378 0.5% 2%  
379 0.2% 1.3%  
380 0.2% 1.0%  
381 0.2% 0.9%  
382 0.2% 0.7%  
383 0.1% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.7%  
321 0.1% 99.6%  
322 0.2% 99.5%  
323 0.2% 99.3%  
324 0.3% 99.1%  
325 0.3% 98.8%  
326 0.3% 98.5%  
327 0.5% 98%  
328 0.4% 98%  
329 0.7% 97%  
330 0.7% 97%  
331 0.6% 96%  
332 1.1% 95%  
333 1.1% 94%  
334 2% 93%  
335 1.5% 91%  
336 2% 90%  
337 3% 88%  
338 3% 85%  
339 3% 82%  
340 3% 79%  
341 4% 75%  
342 4% 72%  
343 2% 68%  
344 3% 66%  
345 4% 63%  
346 3% 59%  
347 2% 56%  
348 3% 53% Median
349 4% 50%  
350 3% 47%  
351 3% 44%  
352 4% 41%  
353 4% 37%  
354 3% 33%  
355 3% 30% Majority
356 4% 27%  
357 4% 23%  
358 3% 19%  
359 3% 16%  
360 2% 13%  
361 2% 11%  
362 1.1% 9%  
363 1.3% 8%  
364 1.2% 7%  
365 0.9% 6%  
366 0.7% 5%  
367 0.5% 4%  
368 0.7% 3%  
369 0.4% 3%  
370 0.6% 2%  
371 0.3% 2%  
372 0.3% 1.5%  
373 0.3% 1.2%  
374 0.2% 0.9%  
375 0.2% 0.7%  
376 0.2% 0.6%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.1% 99.5%  
294 0.1% 99.5%  
295 0.1% 99.4%  
296 0.1% 99.3%  
297 0.2% 99.2%  
298 0.2% 99.1%  
299 0.5% 98.9%  
300 0.8% 98%  
301 0.7% 98%  
302 1.3% 97%  
303 2% 96%  
304 3% 94%  
305 3% 91%  
306 3% 89%  
307 4% 85%  
308 5% 82%  
309 4% 77%  
310 4% 73%  
311 6% 69%  
312 4% 63%  
313 3% 59%  
314 3% 55%  
315 3% 52%  
316 3% 49%  
317 1.2% 47%  
318 1.0% 46% Median
319 1.0% 45%  
320 1.2% 44%  
321 1.0% 42%  
322 1.3% 41%  
323 2% 40%  
324 2% 38%  
325 2% 36%  
326 3% 34% Last Result
327 3% 31%  
328 4% 28%  
329 3% 23%  
330 3% 20%  
331 4% 18%  
332 3% 14%  
333 2% 11%  
334 2% 9%  
335 2% 7%  
336 1.3% 5%  
337 1.0% 3%  
338 0.8% 2%  
339 0.5% 2%  
340 0.4% 1.1%  
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.8% Last Result
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0% 99.7%  
293 0% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.1% 99.6%  
296 0.2% 99.5%  
297 0.3% 99.3%  
298 0.4% 99.0%  
299 0.6% 98.6%  
300 1.0% 98%  
301 1.2% 97%  
302 1.4% 96%  
303 2% 94%  
304 2% 92%  
305 3% 90%  
306 3% 87%  
307 3% 84%  
308 4% 81%  
309 2% 77%  
310 4% 75%  
311 3% 71%  
312 2% 68%  
313 2% 65%  
314 2% 63%  
315 1.2% 61%  
316 1.5% 60%  
317 1.1% 58%  
318 1.3% 57%  
319 1.3% 56%  
320 1.2% 54% Median
321 2% 53%  
322 2% 51%  
323 3% 49%  
324 4% 46%  
325 4% 42%  
326 5% 39%  
327 4% 33%  
328 5% 29%  
329 4% 25%  
330 5% 21%  
331 3% 16%  
332 4% 13%  
333 2% 9%  
334 2% 7%  
335 2% 6%  
336 1.1% 4%  
337 0.8% 3%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.3% 1.4%  
340 0.2% 1.1%  
341 0.2% 0.9%  
342 0.1% 0.7%  
343 0.1% 0.6%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0% Majority

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.1% 99.5%  
276 0.2% 99.4%  
277 0.4% 99.2%  
278 0.4% 98.8%  
279 0.5% 98%  
280 0.5% 98%  
281 0.9% 97%  
282 1.1% 96%  
283 1.4% 95%  
284 1.2% 94%  
285 2% 93%  
286 2% 91%  
287 3% 89%  
288 2% 86%  
289 3% 84%  
290 3% 81%  
291 3% 78%  
292 5% 75%  
293 3% 71%  
294 4% 68%  
295 3% 64%  
296 3% 61%  
297 4% 58%  
298 3% 55%  
299 3% 52%  
300 4% 49% Median
301 3% 45%  
302 3% 42%  
303 3% 39%  
304 3% 37%  
305 3% 34%  
306 3% 31%  
307 3% 28%  
308 3% 26%  
309 2% 23%  
310 2% 21%  
311 3% 18%  
312 2% 15%  
313 1.4% 13%  
314 3% 12%  
315 1.2% 9%  
316 1.4% 8%  
317 1.3% 6%  
318 1.2% 5%  
319 0.9% 4%  
320 0.5% 3%  
321 0.7% 2%  
322 0.4% 2%  
323 0.3% 1.4%  
324 0.3% 1.1%  
325 0.1% 0.7%  
326 0.2% 0.6%  
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.2% 99.5%  
245 0.2% 99.4%  
246 0.4% 99.1%  
247 0.6% 98.7%  
248 1.1% 98%  
249 1.4% 97%  
250 2% 96%  
251 2% 94%  
252 3% 91%  
253 3% 89%  
254 4% 86%  
255 4% 81%  
256 4% 77%  
257 3% 73%  
258 3% 70%  
259 3% 67%  
260 2% 64%  
261 2% 62%  
262 1.4% 61%  
263 1.2% 59%  
264 1.0% 58%  
265 0.7% 57%  
266 0.8% 56%  
267 1.2% 55% Median
268 1.1% 54%  
269 2% 53%  
270 3% 51%  
271 3% 48%  
272 5% 45%  
273 4% 40%  
274 6% 36%  
275 6% 30%  
276 4% 25%  
277 5% 21%  
278 4% 16%  
279 4% 12%  
280 2% 8%  
281 1.4% 6%  
282 2% 4%  
283 0.9% 3%  
284 0.6% 2%  
285 0.3% 1.4%  
286 0.2% 1.1%  
287 0.1% 0.9%  
288 0.1% 0.8%  
289 0% 0.7%  
290 0.1% 0.7%  
291 0% 0.6%  
292 0.1% 0.6%  
293 0% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.5%  
295 0.1% 0.4%  
296 0.1% 0.3%  
297 0% 0.3%  
298 0.1% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0.1% 99.8%  
185 0.1% 99.7%  
186 0.1% 99.6%  
187 0.2% 99.5%  
188 0.2% 99.3%  
189 0.4% 99.1%  
190 0.3% 98.7%  
191 0.6% 98%  
192 0.6% 98%  
193 0.9% 97%  
194 0.9% 96%  
195 1.3% 95%  
196 1.0% 94%  
197 2% 93%  
198 2% 91%  
199 2% 89%  
200 2% 87%  
201 3% 85%  
202 3% 82%  
203 3% 79%  
204 3% 77%  
205 4% 73%  
206 4% 70%  
207 4% 66%  
208 5% 62%  
209 4% 57%  
210 4% 53% Median
211 3% 49%  
212 5% 45%  
213 4% 41%  
214 4% 37%  
215 4% 33%  
216 4% 29%  
217 3% 26%  
218 3% 23%  
219 2% 19%  
220 3% 17%  
221 2% 15%  
222 2% 13%  
223 2% 10%  
224 1.5% 9%  
225 1.4% 7%  
226 1.3% 6%  
227 0.9% 4%  
228 0.6% 4%  
229 0.5% 3%  
230 0.5% 2%  
231 0.5% 2%  
232 0.2% 1.4%  
233 0.3% 1.2% Last Result
234 0.2% 0.9%  
235 0.2% 0.7%  
236 0.1% 0.5%  
237 0.1% 0.4%  
238 0.1% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.8%  
147 0% 99.8%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.7%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 0.1% 99.4%  
152 0.3% 99.3%  
153 0.4% 99.0%  
154 0.5% 98.6%  
155 0.4% 98%  
156 1.1% 98%  
157 1.1% 97%  
158 0.8% 95%  
159 1.4% 95%  
160 2% 93%  
161 2% 91%  
162 2% 89%  
163 2% 88%  
164 3% 85%  
165 2% 83%  
166 3% 80%  
167 3% 77%  
168 4% 74%  
169 3% 70%  
170 4% 67%  
171 4% 62%  
172 5% 58%  
173 4% 53% Median
174 5% 49%  
175 5% 44%  
176 3% 39%  
177 5% 35%  
178 3% 30%  
179 3% 27%  
180 4% 24%  
181 2% 20%  
182 3% 17%  
183 2% 15%  
184 2% 13%  
185 2% 11%  
186 2% 9%  
187 1.2% 8%  
188 1.2% 6%  
189 1.0% 5%  
190 0.8% 4%  
191 1.0% 3%  
192 0.5% 2%  
193 0.7% 2%  
194 0.3% 1.3%  
195 0.4% 1.0%  
196 0.2% 0.7%  
197 0.2% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations