Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 19–23 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.9% 20.5–23.4% 20.1–23.8% 19.7–24.2% 19.1–25.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.7–19.4% 16.3–19.8% 16.0–20.2% 15.4–20.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.8% 15.1–19.2% 14.5–19.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 11.9–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.3–14.9% 10.8–15.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.4–12.8% 9.0–13.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.5% 5.3–9.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.4–6.0% 4.2–6.2% 4.0–6.4% 3.7–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 166 155–177 153–181 150–183 145–189
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 137 127–148 124–150 122–153 117–158
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 129 120–140 117–143 114–145 110–150
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 99 90–108 88–111 86–113 82–118
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 76–92 74–95 72–97 68–102
Die Linke 69 53 47–60 45–63 44–64 41–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 33–45 32–47 30–49 28–52

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.1% 99.7%  
145 0.2% 99.6%  
146 0.2% 99.4%  
147 0.4% 99.2%  
148 0.4% 98.8%  
149 0.4% 98%  
150 0.8% 98%  
151 1.2% 97%  
152 1.0% 96%  
153 1.3% 95%  
154 1.5% 94%  
155 2% 92%  
156 2% 90%  
157 3% 88%  
158 3% 85%  
159 4% 82%  
160 4% 78%  
161 4% 74%  
162 5% 71%  
163 4% 66%  
164 4% 62%  
165 6% 58%  
166 5% 52% Median
167 4% 48%  
168 4% 44%  
169 4% 40%  
170 4% 35%  
171 4% 31%  
172 3% 27%  
173 3% 24%  
174 4% 21%  
175 2% 17%  
176 3% 15%  
177 2% 12%  
178 1.5% 10%  
179 2% 8%  
180 1.4% 7%  
181 1.1% 5%  
182 1.0% 4%  
183 0.8% 3%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.6% 2%  
186 0.4% 1.4%  
187 0.2% 1.0%  
188 0.2% 0.8%  
189 0.2% 0.6%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.8%  
117 0.2% 99.6%  
118 0.3% 99.4%  
119 0.3% 99.2%  
120 0.4% 98.8%  
121 0.6% 98%  
122 0.9% 98%  
123 1.1% 97%  
124 1.3% 96%  
125 2% 94%  
126 2% 93%  
127 3% 91%  
128 2% 88%  
129 3% 86%  
130 3% 83%  
131 4% 80%  
132 4% 76%  
133 5% 72%  
134 4% 67%  
135 5% 62%  
136 5% 57%  
137 6% 52% Median
138 4% 47%  
139 4% 43%  
140 5% 38%  
141 4% 33%  
142 3% 28%  
143 5% 25%  
144 3% 20%  
145 3% 18%  
146 3% 15%  
147 2% 12%  
148 2% 10%  
149 1.5% 8%  
150 1.5% 6%  
151 1.1% 5%  
152 0.8% 4%  
153 0.7% 3%  
154 0.6% 2%  
155 0.3% 2%  
156 0.3% 1.3%  
157 0.2% 0.9%  
158 0.2% 0.7%  
159 0.2% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.2% 99.7%  
111 0.3% 99.4%  
112 0.4% 99.1%  
113 0.6% 98.8%  
114 0.8% 98%  
115 0.9% 97%  
116 1.0% 96%  
117 1.3% 95%  
118 2% 94%  
119 2% 92%  
120 2% 91%  
121 2% 89%  
122 3% 86%  
123 3% 83%  
124 4% 80%  
125 4% 76%  
126 5% 72%  
127 7% 68%  
128 5% 61%  
129 6% 56% Median
130 6% 50%  
131 6% 43%  
132 5% 37%  
133 4% 32%  
134 4% 28%  
135 3% 25%  
136 3% 21%  
137 3% 19%  
138 2% 16%  
139 2% 13%  
140 3% 11%  
141 2% 8%  
142 1.5% 7%  
143 1.3% 5%  
144 1.2% 4%  
145 0.7% 3%  
146 0.5% 2%  
147 0.4% 2%  
148 0.3% 1.2%  
149 0.3% 0.9%  
150 0.2% 0.6%  
151 0.1% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.7%  
82 0.3% 99.6%  
83 0.4% 99.3%  
84 0.5% 99.0%  
85 0.6% 98.5%  
86 1.2% 98%  
87 1.2% 97%  
88 2% 95%  
89 2% 94%  
90 3% 92%  
91 3% 89%  
92 4% 86%  
93 4% 82%  
94 4% 78%  
95 5% 74%  
96 5% 69%  
97 6% 64%  
98 7% 58%  
99 5% 52% Median
100 7% 47%  
101 5% 40%  
102 5% 35%  
103 4% 29%  
104 4% 25%  
105 5% 22%  
106 3% 17%  
107 3% 14%  
108 2% 11%  
109 2% 9%  
110 2% 7%  
111 1.3% 5%  
112 0.9% 4%  
113 0.8% 3%  
114 0.8% 2%  
115 0.5% 2%  
116 0.4% 1.1%  
117 0.2% 0.8%  
118 0.2% 0.6%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.4% 99.4%  
70 0.6% 99.0%  
71 0.5% 98%  
72 1.3% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 95%  
75 2% 93%  
76 3% 91%  
77 4% 88%  
78 4% 84%  
79 4% 80%  
80 7% 77%  
81 6% 70%  
82 5% 64%  
83 6% 59%  
84 8% 53% Median
85 6% 45%  
86 4% 40%  
87 5% 35%  
88 8% 31%  
89 3% 23%  
90 3% 20%  
91 3% 17%  
92 4% 13%  
93 2% 10%  
94 1.4% 8% Last Result
95 2% 6%  
96 2% 5%  
97 0.8% 3%  
98 0.4% 2%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.6% 1.3%  
101 0.2% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.3% 99.6%  
42 0.7% 99.3%  
43 1.0% 98.6%  
44 1.3% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 3% 94%  
47 4% 91%  
48 5% 87%  
49 5% 82%  
50 5% 77%  
51 7% 72%  
52 9% 65%  
53 8% 56% Median
54 7% 49%  
55 6% 42%  
56 6% 35%  
57 6% 30%  
58 6% 24%  
59 5% 18%  
60 4% 13%  
61 2% 9%  
62 2% 7%  
63 2% 6%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.5% 2%  
67 0.3% 1.0%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.7%  
29 0.6% 99.4%  
30 1.5% 98.8%  
31 1.4% 97%  
32 3% 96%  
33 4% 93%  
34 4% 89%  
35 8% 85%  
36 7% 78%  
37 6% 71%  
38 10% 65%  
39 8% 55% Median
40 8% 48%  
41 10% 39%  
42 5% 30%  
43 7% 24%  
44 5% 17%  
45 3% 12%  
46 4% 10% Last Result
47 2% 6%  
48 1.5% 4%  
49 1.1% 3%  
50 0.5% 2%  
51 0.5% 1.2%  
52 0.3% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 473 100% 460–484 456–488 454–490 447–497
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 442 100% 429–455 426–458 423–461 416–467
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 434 100% 422–447 418–451 415–453 409–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 389 100% 376–402 372–405 369–409 363–415
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 366 87% 353–379 349–382 346–385 340–392
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 340 13% 332–355 326–357 321–360 317–370
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 335 3% 322–348 319–351 315–355 309–361
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 320 0% 307–333 304–337 300–340 294–346
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 305 0% 292–318 288–321 285–324 279–331
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 289 0% 277–302 274–306 271–310 264–316
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 266 0% 255–279 250–282 248–287 241–293
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 229 0% 216–241 213–244 211–248 205–254
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 184 0% 172–195 169–197 166–201 161–207

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 99.9%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0% 99.9%  
444 0.1% 99.9%  
445 0.1% 99.8%  
446 0.1% 99.7%  
447 0.2% 99.6%  
448 0.2% 99.5%  
449 0.2% 99.2%  
450 0.3% 99.0%  
451 0.3% 98.7%  
452 0.4% 98%  
453 0.4% 98%  
454 0.8% 98%  
455 1.0% 97%  
456 0.9% 96%  
457 0.8% 95%  
458 1.0% 94%  
459 2% 93%  
460 2% 92%  
461 3% 90%  
462 2% 87%  
463 3% 85%  
464 2% 82%  
465 3% 80%  
466 4% 77% Last Result
467 4% 73%  
468 4% 69%  
469 4% 65%  
470 3% 61%  
471 4% 58% Median
472 4% 54%  
473 5% 50%  
474 5% 45%  
475 3% 40%  
476 3% 37%  
477 3% 34%  
478 4% 31%  
479 5% 27%  
480 3% 22%  
481 3% 19%  
482 2% 16%  
483 3% 14%  
484 2% 12%  
485 1.5% 9%  
486 2% 8%  
487 1.0% 6%  
488 0.9% 5%  
489 0.7% 4%  
490 1.0% 3%  
491 0.6% 2%  
492 0.3% 2%  
493 0.3% 2%  
494 0.3% 1.2%  
495 0.2% 1.0%  
496 0.2% 0.8%  
497 0.1% 0.6%  
498 0.1% 0.4%  
499 0.1% 0.3%  
500 0% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.2%  
502 0% 0.2%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0.1% 99.9%  
413 0.1% 99.8%  
414 0.1% 99.8%  
415 0.1% 99.7%  
416 0.1% 99.6%  
417 0.2% 99.5%  
418 0.2% 99.2%  
419 0.3% 99.0%  
420 0.3% 98.8%  
421 0.5% 98%  
422 0.4% 98%  
423 0.7% 98%  
424 0.8% 97%  
425 0.7% 96%  
426 1.2% 95%  
427 1.4% 94%  
428 1.4% 93%  
429 2% 91%  
430 2% 90%  
431 2% 88%  
432 2% 85%  
433 3% 83%  
434 3% 80%  
435 3% 78%  
436 5% 75%  
437 4% 70%  
438 4% 66%  
439 4% 62%  
440 3% 58%  
441 4% 54% Median
442 5% 51%  
443 5% 46%  
444 3% 42%  
445 4% 38%  
446 3% 34%  
447 3% 31%  
448 4% 28%  
449 2% 24%  
450 2% 21%  
451 3% 19%  
452 2% 17%  
453 2% 14%  
454 2% 12%  
455 2% 10%  
456 2% 8%  
457 1.1% 7%  
458 1.0% 5%  
459 1.0% 4%  
460 0.8% 3%  
461 0.7% 3%  
462 0.5% 2%  
463 0.3% 2%  
464 0.3% 1.2%  
465 0.2% 1.0%  
466 0.1% 0.7%  
467 0.1% 0.6%  
468 0.1% 0.4%  
469 0.1% 0.3%  
470 0.1% 0.3%  
471 0% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0.1% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.8%  
407 0.1% 99.7%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0.2% 99.6%  
410 0.1% 99.4%  
411 0.3% 99.3%  
412 0.4% 99.0%  
413 0.4% 98.6%  
414 0.5% 98%  
415 0.8% 98%  
416 0.7% 97%  
417 0.9% 96%  
418 1.0% 95%  
419 0.9% 94%  
420 1.4% 93%  
421 1.5% 92%  
422 2% 90%  
423 2% 89%  
424 2% 86%  
425 3% 84%  
426 3% 81%  
427 4% 78%  
428 3% 75%  
429 3% 72%  
430 3% 68%  
431 4% 65%  
432 4% 61%  
433 3% 56% Median
434 4% 53%  
435 3% 49%  
436 4% 46%  
437 5% 42%  
438 5% 38%  
439 3% 33%  
440 2% 30%  
441 4% 27%  
442 4% 23%  
443 2% 19%  
444 2% 17%  
445 2% 15%  
446 2% 13%  
447 2% 10%  
448 2% 9%  
449 1.2% 7%  
450 0.8% 6%  
451 1.0% 5%  
452 0.8% 4%  
453 0.9% 3%  
454 0.5% 2%  
455 0.4% 2%  
456 0.3% 2%  
457 0.4% 1.3%  
458 0.2% 0.8%  
459 0.1% 0.7%  
460 0.1% 0.5%  
461 0.1% 0.4%  
462 0.1% 0.3%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.7%  
362 0.1% 99.6%  
363 0.1% 99.5%  
364 0.2% 99.4%  
365 0.2% 99.2%  
366 0.3% 99.0%  
367 0.3% 98.7%  
368 0.7% 98%  
369 0.5% 98%  
370 1.0% 97%  
371 0.7% 96%  
372 1.1% 96%  
373 1.3% 94%  
374 1.2% 93%  
375 1.2% 92%  
376 1.5% 91%  
377 2% 89%  
378 3% 88%  
379 2% 85%  
380 3% 83%  
381 3% 80%  
382 3% 77%  
383 3% 73%  
384 6% 71%  
385 3% 65%  
386 5% 62%  
387 4% 57%  
388 3% 54% Median
389 3% 50%  
390 4% 47%  
391 3% 43%  
392 3% 40%  
393 4% 37%  
394 5% 33%  
395 4% 28%  
396 3% 24%  
397 2% 20%  
398 2% 18%  
399 2% 16%  
400 2% 14%  
401 2% 12%  
402 2% 10%  
403 2% 9%  
404 1.4% 7%  
405 0.8% 6%  
406 1.0% 5%  
407 0.7% 4%  
408 0.6% 3%  
409 0.7% 3%  
410 0.3% 2%  
411 0.3% 2%  
412 0.3% 1.2%  
413 0.2% 0.9%  
414 0.2% 0.7%  
415 0.1% 0.5%  
416 0.1% 0.4%  
417 0.1% 0.3%  
418 0.1% 0.3%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.5%  
341 0.2% 99.4%  
342 0.3% 99.2%  
343 0.3% 98.9%  
344 0.3% 98.6%  
345 0.5% 98%  
346 0.5% 98%  
347 0.8% 97%  
348 0.9% 96%  
349 1.0% 96%  
350 1.2% 95%  
351 2% 93%  
352 1.2% 92%  
353 2% 91%  
354 1.5% 88%  
355 2% 87% Majority
356 3% 85%  
357 4% 82%  
358 3% 78%  
359 3% 76%  
360 3% 73%  
361 4% 70%  
362 3% 66%  
363 4% 62%  
364 3% 58%  
365 5% 55% Median
366 3% 50%  
367 5% 47%  
368 3% 42%  
369 3% 39%  
370 4% 36%  
371 4% 32%  
372 3% 28%  
373 2% 25%  
374 3% 23%  
375 3% 20%  
376 3% 17%  
377 2% 14%  
378 2% 12%  
379 2% 10%  
380 2% 9%  
381 1.3% 7%  
382 0.9% 6%  
383 0.8% 5%  
384 0.9% 4%  
385 0.7% 3%  
386 0.5% 2%  
387 0.5% 2%  
388 0.3% 1.4%  
389 0.3% 1.2%  
390 0.2% 0.9%  
391 0.1% 0.7%  
392 0.1% 0.6%  
393 0.1% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.3%  
395 0.1% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9% Last Result
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.2% 99.8%  
317 0.2% 99.6%  
318 0.5% 99.4%  
319 0.3% 98.9%  
320 0.5% 98.6%  
321 0.7% 98%  
322 0.7% 97%  
323 0.8% 97%  
324 0.5% 96%  
325 0.4% 95%  
326 0.6% 95%  
327 0.4% 94%  
328 0.2% 94%  
329 0.4% 94%  
330 0.6% 93%  
331 1.0% 93%  
332 2% 92%  
333 4% 90%  
334 4% 86%  
335 5% 82%  
336 6% 78%  
337 7% 72%  
338 6% 65%  
339 5% 60%  
340 5% 54%  
341 4% 49%  
342 3% 46% Median
343 2% 43%  
344 1.0% 41%  
345 0.8% 40%  
346 1.0% 39%  
347 0.8% 38%  
348 2% 37%  
349 2% 35%  
350 3% 33%  
351 4% 29%  
352 3% 25%  
353 5% 22%  
354 3% 16%  
355 3% 13% Majority
356 3% 10%  
357 2% 7%  
358 1.2% 5%  
359 1.0% 4%  
360 0.4% 3%  
361 0.3% 2%  
362 0.1% 2%  
363 0.1% 2%  
364 0.1% 2%  
365 0.1% 2%  
366 0.2% 1.5%  
367 0.2% 1.3%  
368 0.2% 1.0%  
369 0.2% 0.9%  
370 0.2% 0.7%  
371 0.2% 0.5%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.6%  
310 0.1% 99.4%  
311 0.2% 99.3%  
312 0.3% 99.1%  
313 0.3% 98.8%  
314 0.6% 98.5%  
315 0.6% 98%  
316 0.4% 97%  
317 1.0% 97%  
318 0.8% 96%  
319 1.0% 95%  
320 1.0% 94%  
321 2% 93%  
322 1.4% 91%  
323 2% 90%  
324 3% 88%  
325 2% 85%  
326 2% 83%  
327 3% 81%  
328 3% 78%  
329 2% 75%  
330 5% 73%  
331 3% 68%  
332 3% 64%  
333 4% 61%  
334 4% 57% Median
335 3% 52%  
336 5% 50%  
337 4% 45%  
338 3% 41%  
339 4% 38%  
340 4% 34%  
341 3% 30%  
342 3% 26%  
343 4% 24%  
344 3% 20%  
345 2% 17%  
346 3% 15%  
347 1.4% 12%  
348 1.3% 11%  
349 2% 9%  
350 0.9% 7%  
351 1.4% 6%  
352 0.7% 5%  
353 1.1% 4%  
354 0.6% 3%  
355 0.5% 3% Majority
356 0.6% 2%  
357 0.2% 2%  
358 0.4% 1.4%  
359 0.2% 1.0%  
360 0.1% 0.8%  
361 0.2% 0.6%  
362 0.1% 0.5%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.2% 99.5%  
296 0.2% 99.3%  
297 0.3% 99.1%  
298 0.3% 98.8%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.7% 98%  
301 0.6% 97%  
302 0.7% 97%  
303 1.0% 96%  
304 0.8% 95%  
305 1.4% 94%  
306 2% 93%  
307 2% 91%  
308 2% 90%  
309 2% 88%  
310 2% 86%  
311 2% 84%  
312 2% 82%  
313 3% 80%  
314 4% 76%  
315 5% 72%  
316 4% 67%  
317 3% 63%  
318 3% 60%  
319 4% 57% Median
320 3% 53%  
321 3% 50%  
322 4% 46%  
323 5% 43%  
324 3% 38%  
325 6% 35%  
326 3% 29%  
327 3% 27%  
328 3% 23%  
329 3% 20%  
330 2% 17%  
331 3% 15%  
332 2% 12%  
333 1.5% 11%  
334 1.2% 9%  
335 1.2% 8%  
336 1.3% 7%  
337 1.1% 6%  
338 0.7% 4%  
339 1.0% 4%  
340 0.5% 3%  
341 0.7% 2%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.3%  
344 0.2% 1.0%  
345 0.2% 0.8%  
346 0.1% 0.6%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.6%  
279 0.2% 99.6%  
280 0.1% 99.4%  
281 0.2% 99.3%  
282 0.2% 99.0%  
283 0.4% 98.8%  
284 0.5% 98%  
285 0.5% 98%  
286 0.8% 97%  
287 1.0% 97%  
288 1.2% 96%  
289 1.0% 94%  
290 2% 93%  
291 1.5% 92%  
292 1.5% 90%  
293 2% 89%  
294 2% 87%  
295 3% 85%  
296 3% 83%  
297 3% 80%  
298 4% 77%  
299 5% 74%  
300 2% 68%  
301 6% 66%  
302 4% 60%  
303 3% 56%  
304 3% 53% Median
305 3% 50%  
306 3% 47%  
307 4% 44%  
308 3% 40%  
309 4% 36%  
310 5% 33%  
311 4% 28%  
312 3% 24%  
313 3% 20%  
314 3% 17%  
315 1.3% 15%  
316 2% 13%  
317 2% 12%  
318 1.4% 10%  
319 1.2% 9%  
320 1.1% 7%  
321 2% 6%  
322 0.8% 5%  
323 1.0% 4%  
324 0.6% 3%  
325 0.7% 2%  
326 0.3% 2% Last Result
327 0.3% 1.4%  
328 0.2% 1.1%  
329 0.2% 0.9%  
330 0.2% 0.7%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0.2% 99.6%  
265 0.2% 99.4%  
266 0.1% 99.3%  
267 0.2% 99.1%  
268 0.3% 98.9%  
269 0.7% 98.6%  
270 0.5% 98%  
271 0.7% 98%  
272 0.5% 97%  
273 1.1% 96%  
274 1.2% 95%  
275 2% 94%  
276 1.3% 93%  
277 2% 91%  
278 1.0% 89%  
279 3% 88%  
280 4% 85%  
281 2% 81%  
282 3% 79%  
283 2% 76%  
284 4% 74%  
285 4% 69%  
286 4% 66%  
287 3% 61%  
288 4% 58%  
289 5% 55% Median
290 4% 50%  
291 4% 46%  
292 3% 42%  
293 3% 39%  
294 4% 35%  
295 3% 31%  
296 4% 28%  
297 2% 24%  
298 3% 22%  
299 2% 19%  
300 3% 18%  
301 3% 14%  
302 2% 12%  
303 2% 10%  
304 0.7% 8%  
305 2% 8%  
306 1.2% 6%  
307 0.6% 4%  
308 0.8% 4%  
309 0.4% 3%  
310 0.9% 3%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0.4% 1.5%  
313 0.1% 1.0%  
314 0.3% 0.9%  
315 0.1% 0.6%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0.2% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.2% 99.8%  
241 0.2% 99.6%  
242 0.2% 99.4%  
243 0.1% 99.2%  
244 0.1% 99.0%  
245 0.1% 99.0%  
246 0.3% 98.9%  
247 0.7% 98.5%  
248 1.0% 98%  
249 1.4% 97%  
250 1.0% 95%  
251 0.7% 94%  
252 0.2% 94%  
253 0.5% 93%  
254 1.5% 93%  
255 3% 92%  
256 4% 88%  
257 3% 84%  
258 3% 81%  
259 1.0% 77%  
260 0.9% 76%  
261 1.3% 75%  
262 5% 74%  
263 4% 70%  
264 9% 65%  
265 6% 56%  
266 3% 51% Median
267 2% 47%  
268 0.8% 45%  
269 2% 44%  
270 3% 42%  
271 8% 39%  
272 5% 30%  
273 5% 26%  
274 3% 21%  
275 0.6% 18%  
276 0.7% 17%  
277 1.0% 17%  
278 3% 16%  
279 3% 13%  
280 3% 10%  
281 2% 7%  
282 0.9% 5%  
283 0.4% 4%  
284 0.2% 4%  
285 0.5% 4%  
286 0.8% 3%  
287 0.8% 3%  
288 0.6% 2%  
289 0.4% 1.2%  
290 0.1% 0.8%  
291 0.1% 0.7%  
292 0.1% 0.6%  
293 0.1% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.5%  
295 0.1% 0.3%  
296 0.1% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0.1% 99.8%  
203 0.1% 99.7%  
204 0.1% 99.7%  
205 0.1% 99.6%  
206 0.3% 99.4%  
207 0.2% 99.2%  
208 0.3% 99.0%  
209 0.5% 98.7%  
210 0.6% 98%  
211 0.6% 98%  
212 0.8% 97%  
213 1.1% 96%  
214 2% 95%  
215 2% 93%  
216 2% 92%  
217 2% 90%  
218 3% 88%  
219 3% 85%  
220 3% 82%  
221 3% 79%  
222 3% 77%  
223 4% 73%  
224 3% 70%  
225 4% 66%  
226 3% 62%  
227 5% 59%  
228 3% 55% Median
229 5% 52%  
230 4% 47%  
231 4% 43%  
232 5% 40%  
233 4% 35% Last Result
234 4% 31%  
235 3% 27%  
236 4% 24%  
237 3% 20%  
238 3% 17%  
239 2% 14%  
240 2% 12%  
241 2% 10%  
242 1.5% 8%  
243 1.5% 7%  
244 0.7% 5%  
245 0.9% 5%  
246 0.9% 4%  
247 0.4% 3%  
248 0.4% 3%  
249 0.6% 2%  
250 0.4% 2%  
251 0.2% 1.1%  
252 0.2% 0.9%  
253 0.2% 0.8%  
254 0.2% 0.5%  
255 0.1% 0.4%  
256 0.1% 0.3%  
257 0.1% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.8%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0.1% 99.6%  
161 0.2% 99.6%  
162 0.3% 99.3%  
163 0.5% 99.0%  
164 0.6% 98.5%  
165 0.3% 98%  
166 0.5% 98%  
167 0.6% 97%  
168 0.7% 97%  
169 2% 96%  
170 2% 94%  
171 3% 93%  
172 2% 90%  
173 2% 88%  
174 3% 86%  
175 3% 83%  
176 3% 81%  
177 3% 78%  
178 3% 75%  
179 5% 73%  
180 5% 68%  
181 4% 62%  
182 4% 58% Median
183 3% 54%  
184 6% 50%  
185 6% 44%  
186 5% 38%  
187 5% 34%  
188 2% 29%  
189 4% 27%  
190 3% 23%  
191 3% 20%  
192 3% 17%  
193 2% 14%  
194 2% 13%  
195 2% 10%  
196 2% 8%  
197 1.3% 6%  
198 0.7% 5%  
199 0.9% 4%  
200 0.6% 3%  
201 0.6% 3%  
202 0.5% 2%  
203 0.4% 2%  
204 0.3% 1.2%  
205 0.2% 0.9%  
206 0.2% 0.7%  
207 0.2% 0.5%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations