Opinion Poll by Forsa, 20–26 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.2% 20.0–22.4% 19.6–22.8% 19.4–23.1% 18.8–23.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.8–22.3% 19.5–22.6% 19.2–22.9% 18.7–23.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 12.1–14.1% 11.8–14.4% 11.6–14.6% 11.1–15.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.3–5.5% 4.1–5.7% 4.0–5.9% 3.7–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 162 153–171 151–174 149–176 144–181
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 161 152–170 149–173 147–175 143–180
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 107–124 104–125 103–128 99–131
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 100 93–108 90–110 89–112 85–116
Alternative für Deutschland 94 77 70–84 69–86 67–88 64–91
Die Linke 69 54 48–60 47–62 45–63 43–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 36–45 34–47 33–48 31–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.7%  
145 0.4% 99.5%  
146 0.3% 99.1%  
147 0.5% 98.8%  
148 0.7% 98%  
149 1.2% 98%  
150 1.2% 96%  
151 2% 95%  
152 2% 93%  
153 2% 91%  
154 3% 89%  
155 3% 86%  
156 4% 82%  
157 5% 78%  
158 4% 73%  
159 6% 69%  
160 5% 63%  
161 6% 59%  
162 5% 53% Median
163 6% 47%  
164 7% 42%  
165 3% 35%  
166 5% 32%  
167 3% 26%  
168 4% 23%  
169 3% 19%  
170 4% 16%  
171 2% 12%  
172 2% 10%  
173 2% 8%  
174 1.5% 6%  
175 1.2% 4%  
176 1.0% 3%  
177 0.5% 2%  
178 0.5% 2%  
179 0.4% 1.3%  
180 0.3% 0.9%  
181 0.2% 0.6%  
182 0.2% 0.4%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.2% 99.7%  
143 0.2% 99.6%  
144 0.3% 99.4%  
145 0.4% 99.1%  
146 0.5% 98.7%  
147 0.8% 98%  
148 1.1% 97%  
149 2% 96%  
150 2% 95%  
151 2% 93%  
152 2% 90%  
153 2% 88%  
154 4% 86%  
155 5% 82%  
156 5% 77%  
157 5% 72%  
158 6% 67%  
159 4% 62%  
160 6% 58%  
161 5% 52% Median
162 5% 47%  
163 5% 42%  
164 7% 38%  
165 5% 31%  
166 4% 26%  
167 4% 22%  
168 4% 18%  
169 2% 15%  
170 3% 12%  
171 2% 10%  
172 2% 7%  
173 1.3% 5%  
174 0.8% 4%  
175 0.7% 3%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.4% 2%  
178 0.3% 1.2%  
179 0.2% 0.8%  
180 0.2% 0.6%  
181 0.1% 0.4%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.7%  
100 0.5% 99.5%  
101 0.2% 98.9%  
102 0.4% 98.7%  
103 2% 98%  
104 1.4% 96%  
105 0.4% 95%  
106 3% 94%  
107 6% 92%  
108 1.3% 86%  
109 2% 85%  
110 9% 83%  
111 6% 74%  
112 1.1% 68%  
113 8% 67%  
114 11% 59% Median
115 3% 48%  
116 3% 46%  
117 13% 43%  
118 4% 30%  
119 0.8% 26%  
120 5% 25%  
121 7% 20%  
122 1.1% 13%  
123 1.3% 11%  
124 4% 10%  
125 2% 6%  
126 0.1% 4%  
127 2% 4%  
128 1.2% 3%  
129 0.1% 1.3%  
130 0.2% 1.1%  
131 0.6% 1.0%  
132 0.1% 0.4%  
133 0% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.6%  
86 0.3% 99.3%  
87 0.4% 99.0%  
88 0.9% 98.6%  
89 2% 98%  
90 2% 96%  
91 2% 95%  
92 3% 93%  
93 3% 90%  
94 5% 87%  
95 5% 81%  
96 5% 76%  
97 5% 70%  
98 7% 66%  
99 9% 59%  
100 8% 50% Median
101 6% 42%  
102 5% 36%  
103 5% 31%  
104 5% 26%  
105 5% 21%  
106 4% 16%  
107 2% 12%  
108 2% 10%  
109 3% 8%  
110 2% 6%  
111 1.2% 4%  
112 0.7% 3%  
113 0.5% 2%  
114 0.4% 1.3%  
115 0.4% 0.9%  
116 0.2% 0.5%  
117 0.1% 0.3%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.6%  
65 0.6% 99.4%  
66 1.0% 98.9%  
67 1.0% 98%  
68 1.5% 97%  
69 3% 95%  
70 4% 93%  
71 4% 89%  
72 4% 85%  
73 7% 81%  
74 9% 74%  
75 4% 65%  
76 7% 61%  
77 9% 54% Median
78 8% 45%  
79 5% 37%  
80 6% 32%  
81 7% 26%  
82 5% 20%  
83 3% 15%  
84 3% 11%  
85 3% 8%  
86 2% 5%  
87 1.1% 4%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.1%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.6%  
44 0.7% 99.2%  
45 1.4% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 95%  
48 4% 92%  
49 5% 89%  
50 7% 84%  
51 7% 77%  
52 9% 70%  
53 10% 60%  
54 9% 51% Median
55 9% 42%  
56 7% 33%  
57 6% 27%  
58 5% 21%  
59 5% 15%  
60 3% 11%  
61 2% 7%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.4% 3%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.1%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.8%  
32 0.7% 99.5%  
33 1.5% 98.7%  
34 3% 97%  
35 4% 95%  
36 5% 91%  
37 7% 86%  
38 9% 79%  
39 10% 69%  
40 11% 59% Median
41 11% 48%  
42 9% 38%  
43 8% 29%  
44 6% 21%  
45 5% 15%  
46 4% 10% Last Result
47 2% 6%  
48 2% 4%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.3%  
51 0.3% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 478 100% 468–488 466–491 463–494 457–499
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 464 100% 453–473 450–476 447–479 442–484
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 417 100% 407–428 403–431 401–434 396–439
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 379 99.8% 368–391 365–393 363–396 358–401
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 376 99.4% 365–386 362–390 359–392 354–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 364 85% 353–375 350–377 347–380 341–386
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 330 0.2% 318–341 316–344 313–346 308–351
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 317 0% 306–328 304–331 301–334 296–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 302 0% 291–313 289–316 286–319 281–324
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 279 0% 268–291 266–294 264–296 259–302
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 276 0% 265–287 262–289 260–292 255–297
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 215 0% 205–225 202–227 200–230 195–235
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 169 0% 160–178 157–181 155–183 150–188

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0.1% 99.9%  
455 0.1% 99.8%  
456 0.1% 99.8%  
457 0.1% 99.6%  
458 0.3% 99.5%  
459 0.2% 99.2%  
460 0.4% 99.0%  
461 0.4% 98.6%  
462 0.5% 98%  
463 0.6% 98%  
464 0.9% 97%  
465 1.1% 96%  
466 1.3% 95% Last Result
467 2% 94%  
468 2% 92%  
469 2% 90%  
470 3% 88%  
471 5% 84%  
472 4% 80%  
473 4% 76%  
474 5% 71%  
475 6% 67%  
476 3% 61%  
477 3% 58% Median
478 5% 55%  
479 3% 50%  
480 5% 47%  
481 4% 42%  
482 4% 38%  
483 6% 35%  
484 4% 29%  
485 4% 25%  
486 5% 20%  
487 3% 15%  
488 4% 12%  
489 2% 9%  
490 2% 7%  
491 1.5% 5%  
492 0.9% 4%  
493 0.5% 3%  
494 0.5% 3%  
495 0.5% 2%  
496 0.3% 2%  
497 0.3% 1.2%  
498 0.2% 0.9%  
499 0.2% 0.7%  
500 0.2% 0.5%  
501 0.1% 0.3%  
502 0% 0.2%  
503 0.1% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0.1% 99.9%  
439 0% 99.9%  
440 0.1% 99.8%  
441 0.1% 99.7%  
442 0.2% 99.6%  
443 0.2% 99.4%  
444 0.2% 99.3%  
445 0.6% 99.0%  
446 0.5% 98%  
447 0.7% 98%  
448 0.6% 97%  
449 1.1% 97%  
450 1.4% 96%  
451 1.2% 94%  
452 2% 93%  
453 2% 91%  
454 2% 89%  
455 2% 86%  
456 3% 84%  
457 4% 81%  
458 4% 76%  
459 5% 73%  
460 4% 67%  
461 5% 64%  
462 4% 58%  
463 4% 55% Median
464 6% 51%  
465 5% 45%  
466 5% 40%  
467 4% 35%  
468 5% 31%  
469 4% 26%  
470 3% 22%  
471 3% 19%  
472 3% 16%  
473 3% 13%  
474 1.5% 10%  
475 2% 8%  
476 2% 7%  
477 1.0% 5%  
478 0.9% 4%  
479 1.0% 3%  
480 0.6% 2%  
481 0.4% 2%  
482 0.3% 1.1%  
483 0.3% 0.8%  
484 0.2% 0.6%  
485 0.1% 0.4%  
486 0.1% 0.3%  
487 0.1% 0.2%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.9%  
393 0.1% 99.8%  
394 0.1% 99.8%  
395 0.1% 99.7%  
396 0.2% 99.6%  
397 0.3% 99.4%  
398 0.4% 99.1%  
399 0.4% 98.6%  
400 0.6% 98%  
401 0.5% 98%  
402 1.2% 97%  
403 1.2% 96%  
404 2% 95%  
405 1.2% 93%  
406 1.4% 92%  
407 2% 90%  
408 3% 88%  
409 3% 85%  
410 3% 82%  
411 3% 79%  
412 3% 76%  
413 4% 73%  
414 5% 69%  
415 6% 64%  
416 4% 58% Median
417 5% 54%  
418 5% 49%  
419 5% 44%  
420 6% 40%  
421 6% 34%  
422 4% 28%  
423 3% 25%  
424 3% 21%  
425 3% 19%  
426 2% 16%  
427 3% 13%  
428 2% 10%  
429 1.2% 9%  
430 1.4% 7%  
431 1.3% 6%  
432 1.3% 5%  
433 0.8% 3%  
434 0.7% 3%  
435 0.5% 2%  
436 0.3% 2%  
437 0.4% 1.2%  
438 0.3% 0.8%  
439 0.2% 0.5%  
440 0.1% 0.4%  
441 0.1% 0.3%  
442 0.1% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.1% 99.7%  
357 0.1% 99.6%  
358 0.2% 99.6%  
359 0.3% 99.4%  
360 0.4% 99.0%  
361 0.4% 98.7%  
362 0.7% 98%  
363 0.7% 98%  
364 0.7% 97%  
365 2% 96%  
366 2% 95%  
367 1.3% 93%  
368 2% 92%  
369 3% 90%  
370 2% 87%  
371 3% 85%  
372 4% 83%  
373 3% 79%  
374 3% 75%  
375 6% 72%  
376 4% 67%  
377 3% 63%  
378 6% 60%  
379 5% 54% Median
380 4% 49%  
381 6% 45%  
382 5% 39%  
383 3% 35%  
384 3% 32%  
385 6% 28%  
386 3% 23%  
387 3% 20%  
388 3% 17%  
389 2% 14%  
390 2% 12%  
391 2% 10%  
392 2% 8%  
393 1.2% 6%  
394 1.1% 5%  
395 0.7% 4%  
396 0.8% 3%  
397 0.6% 2%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.3% 1.1%  
400 0.2% 0.9%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0.2% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.8%  
353 0.1% 99.7%  
354 0.2% 99.5%  
355 0.2% 99.4% Majority
356 0.3% 99.2%  
357 0.4% 98.9%  
358 0.7% 98%  
359 0.7% 98%  
360 0.7% 97%  
361 1.2% 96%  
362 2% 95%  
363 1.1% 94%  
364 2% 93%  
365 2% 90%  
366 2% 88%  
367 3% 86%  
368 3% 83%  
369 4% 80%  
370 3% 76%  
371 4% 73%  
372 4% 69%  
373 5% 65%  
374 4% 59%  
375 4% 55% Median
376 5% 51%  
377 5% 46%  
378 5% 41%  
379 4% 36%  
380 4% 32%  
381 3% 28%  
382 5% 25%  
383 3% 20%  
384 2% 17%  
385 3% 15%  
386 2% 12%  
387 2% 10%  
388 1.3% 8%  
389 2% 7%  
390 1.0% 5%  
391 0.8% 4%  
392 0.8% 3%  
393 0.6% 2%  
394 0.5% 2%  
395 0.3% 1.3%  
396 0.2% 0.9%  
397 0.2% 0.7%  
398 0.2% 0.6%  
399 0.1% 0.4%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.2% 99.7%  
342 0.2% 99.5%  
343 0.2% 99.3%  
344 0.4% 99.1%  
345 0.4% 98.6%  
346 0.5% 98%  
347 0.6% 98%  
348 0.8% 97%  
349 0.9% 96%  
350 2% 95%  
351 2% 94%  
352 2% 92%  
353 2% 90%  
354 3% 88%  
355 3% 85% Majority
356 2% 82%  
357 4% 80%  
358 4% 76%  
359 4% 73%  
360 5% 69%  
361 5% 64%  
362 4% 59%  
363 5% 55% Median
364 3% 50%  
365 4% 47%  
366 6% 43%  
367 4% 37%  
368 6% 33%  
369 3% 28%  
370 4% 24%  
371 4% 20%  
372 2% 16%  
373 2% 15%  
374 2% 12%  
375 2% 10%  
376 1.4% 8%  
377 2% 7%  
378 1.1% 5%  
379 1.0% 4%  
380 0.9% 3%  
381 0.5% 2%  
382 0.3% 2%  
383 0.3% 1.2%  
384 0.3% 0.9%  
385 0.2% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.2% 99.7%  
308 0.2% 99.5%  
309 0.2% 99.3%  
310 0.3% 99.1%  
311 0.5% 98.9%  
312 0.6% 98%  
313 0.8% 98%  
314 0.7% 97%  
315 1.1% 96%  
316 1.2% 95%  
317 2% 94%  
318 2% 92%  
319 2% 90%  
320 2% 88%  
321 3% 86%  
322 3% 83%  
323 3% 80%  
324 6% 77%  
325 3% 72%  
326 3% 68%  
327 5% 65%  
328 6% 61%  
329 4% 55% Median
330 5% 51%  
331 6% 46%  
332 3% 40%  
333 4% 37%  
334 6% 33%  
335 3% 28%  
336 3% 25%  
337 4% 21%  
338 3% 17%  
339 2% 15%  
340 3% 13%  
341 2% 10%  
342 1.3% 8%  
343 2% 7%  
344 2% 5%  
345 0.7% 4%  
346 0.7% 3%  
347 0.7% 2%  
348 0.4% 2%  
349 0.4% 1.3%  
350 0.3% 1.0%  
351 0.2% 0.6%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.2% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.5%  
297 0.2% 99.4%  
298 0.3% 99.1%  
299 0.3% 98.8%  
300 0.4% 98%  
301 0.9% 98%  
302 0.6% 97%  
303 1.0% 97%  
304 2% 96%  
305 2% 94%  
306 2% 92%  
307 2% 90%  
308 1.4% 88%  
309 3% 87%  
310 3% 84%  
311 4% 80%  
312 5% 76%  
313 4% 71%  
314 6% 68%  
315 4% 62%  
316 4% 58% Median
317 4% 54%  
318 3% 50%  
319 6% 47%  
320 5% 41%  
321 4% 36%  
322 5% 32%  
323 4% 27%  
324 3% 23%  
325 3% 21%  
326 2% 17%  
327 4% 15%  
328 2% 12%  
329 2% 10%  
330 2% 8%  
331 1.0% 6%  
332 0.9% 5%  
333 0.9% 4%  
334 0.4% 3%  
335 0.7% 2%  
336 0.6% 2%  
337 0.3% 1.3%  
338 0.3% 1.0%  
339 0.2% 0.6%  
340 0.2% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.2% 99.7%  
281 0.2% 99.5%  
282 0.2% 99.3%  
283 0.3% 99.1%  
284 0.2% 98.8%  
285 0.8% 98.6%  
286 0.7% 98%  
287 1.0% 97%  
288 0.8% 96%  
289 1.3% 95%  
290 2% 94%  
291 3% 92%  
292 1.5% 89%  
293 2% 88%  
294 3% 86%  
295 4% 83%  
296 4% 79%  
297 4% 75%  
298 2% 71%  
299 4% 69%  
300 5% 64%  
301 7% 59%  
302 3% 52% Median
303 5% 49%  
304 5% 45%  
305 5% 39%  
306 4% 34%  
307 4% 31%  
308 3% 27%  
309 4% 24%  
310 3% 20%  
311 4% 17%  
312 2% 13%  
313 2% 11%  
314 2% 9%  
315 2% 8%  
316 1.3% 6%  
317 1.0% 5%  
318 0.7% 4%  
319 0.7% 3%  
320 0.6% 2%  
321 0.5% 2%  
322 0.2% 1.1%  
323 0.2% 0.9%  
324 0.2% 0.7%  
325 0.2% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.2% 99.7%  
259 0.3% 99.5%  
260 0.3% 99.2%  
261 0.4% 98.9%  
262 0.3% 98.5%  
263 0.5% 98%  
264 0.7% 98%  
265 0.8% 97%  
266 2% 96%  
267 2% 95%  
268 2% 92%  
269 2% 90%  
270 2% 88%  
271 2% 85%  
272 2% 84%  
273 2% 82%  
274 4% 80%  
275 5% 75%  
276 6% 70%  
277 7% 64%  
278 5% 56%  
279 3% 52% Median
280 3% 49%  
281 3% 46%  
282 4% 43%  
283 6% 39%  
284 5% 33%  
285 5% 28%  
286 5% 23%  
287 3% 18%  
288 2% 15%  
289 1.2% 13%  
290 1.4% 12%  
291 2% 11%  
292 2% 9%  
293 2% 7%  
294 2% 5%  
295 1.0% 3%  
296 0.7% 3%  
297 0.3% 2%  
298 0.3% 2%  
299 0.3% 1.2%  
300 0.2% 0.9%  
301 0.2% 0.7%  
302 0.2% 0.5%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0.1% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.2% 99.5%  
256 0.3% 99.3%  
257 0.3% 99.0%  
258 0.4% 98.8%  
259 0.6% 98%  
260 0.8% 98%  
261 1.0% 97%  
262 1.4% 96%  
263 1.2% 94%  
264 2% 93%  
265 2% 91%  
266 3% 89%  
267 2% 87%  
268 4% 84%  
269 3% 81%  
270 3% 77%  
271 5% 74%  
272 4% 69%  
273 5% 65%  
274 5% 61%  
275 4% 56% Median
276 5% 51%  
277 5% 47%  
278 5% 42%  
279 4% 38%  
280 4% 34%  
281 5% 29%  
282 4% 25%  
283 3% 21%  
284 3% 18%  
285 2% 15%  
286 2% 12%  
287 2% 10%  
288 2% 8%  
289 2% 6%  
290 0.8% 5%  
291 1.0% 4%  
292 0.7% 3%  
293 0.7% 2%  
294 0.4% 2%  
295 0.3% 1.3%  
296 0.3% 0.9%  
297 0.2% 0.6%  
298 0.1% 0.5%  
299 0.1% 0.3%  
300 0.1% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0.2% 99.5%  
196 0.2% 99.4%  
197 0.5% 99.2%  
198 0.4% 98.7%  
199 0.6% 98%  
200 0.8% 98%  
201 1.1% 97%  
202 2% 96%  
203 1.4% 94%  
204 2% 93%  
205 3% 91%  
206 2% 88%  
207 3% 86%  
208 4% 82%  
209 3% 78%  
210 4% 75%  
211 5% 71%  
212 6% 66%  
213 4% 61%  
214 5% 56% Median
215 6% 51%  
216 5% 45%  
217 5% 39%  
218 5% 35%  
219 4% 30%  
220 4% 25%  
221 3% 22%  
222 4% 19%  
223 3% 15%  
224 2% 12%  
225 2% 10%  
226 2% 8%  
227 1.4% 6%  
228 0.9% 5%  
229 0.9% 4%  
230 0.8% 3%  
231 0.6% 2%  
232 0.5% 2%  
233 0.4% 1.3% Last Result
234 0.3% 1.0%  
235 0.2% 0.7%  
236 0.2% 0.5%  
237 0.1% 0.3%  
238 0% 0.2%  
239 0.1% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 0.2% 99.4%  
152 0.3% 99.3%  
153 0.5% 99.0%  
154 0.9% 98%  
155 1.1% 98%  
156 1.0% 96%  
157 1.5% 95%  
158 2% 94%  
159 2% 92%  
160 3% 90%  
161 2% 87%  
162 5% 85%  
163 5% 80%  
164 4% 75%  
165 4% 71%  
166 5% 66%  
167 6% 62%  
168 5% 56% Median
169 6% 51%  
170 7% 45%  
171 5% 39%  
172 5% 34%  
173 4% 30%  
174 4% 26%  
175 4% 21%  
176 3% 18%  
177 3% 14%  
178 2% 11%  
179 2% 9%  
180 2% 7%  
181 1.2% 5%  
182 1.2% 4%  
183 0.7% 3%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.3% 1.1%  
187 0.3% 0.8%  
188 0.2% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations