Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 23–26 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.6% 20.3–23.9% 19.7–24.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.5% 16.4–18.6% 16.1–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.5% 16.4–18.6% 16.1–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.7–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.0% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 168 159–177 156–180 154–183 150–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 133 125–142 123–144 121–147 117–151
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 133 125–142 123–145 121–147 117–151
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 99 92–107 90–109 88–111 85–115
Alternative für Deutschland 94 92 85–99 83–101 81–103 78–107
Die Linke 69 46 41–51 39–53 38–54 0–57
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 34–43 32–45 31–46 29–48

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 0.3% 99.4%  
152 0.4% 99.1%  
153 0.5% 98.7%  
154 1.0% 98%  
155 1.0% 97%  
156 2% 96%  
157 2% 95%  
158 2% 93%  
159 2% 91%  
160 4% 89%  
161 3% 85%  
162 4% 81%  
163 4% 77%  
164 5% 73%  
165 6% 68%  
166 5% 63%  
167 6% 58%  
168 7% 52% Median
169 5% 45%  
170 5% 40%  
171 5% 35%  
172 4% 30%  
173 4% 26%  
174 3% 22%  
175 5% 19%  
176 3% 14%  
177 2% 11%  
178 1.5% 9%  
179 2% 8%  
180 1.4% 6%  
181 0.8% 5%  
182 1.3% 4%  
183 0.4% 3%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.4% 2%  
186 0.3% 1.1%  
187 0.2% 0.8%  
188 0.1% 0.6%  
189 0.2% 0.5%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.3% 99.7%  
118 0.3% 99.4%  
119 0.7% 99.1%  
120 0.9% 98%  
121 0.6% 98%  
122 1.4% 97%  
123 1.4% 96%  
124 2% 94%  
125 3% 92%  
126 3% 89%  
127 5% 86%  
128 4% 81%  
129 4% 77%  
130 6% 73%  
131 5% 68%  
132 9% 62%  
133 5% 53% Median
134 6% 48%  
135 5% 42%  
136 6% 37%  
137 6% 31%  
138 4% 25%  
139 4% 21%  
140 4% 17%  
141 2% 13%  
142 3% 11%  
143 2% 8%  
144 1.3% 6%  
145 1.5% 5%  
146 0.8% 3%  
147 0.7% 3%  
148 0.5% 2%  
149 0.5% 1.4%  
150 0.2% 0.9%  
151 0.2% 0.6%  
152 0.1% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.3% 99.7%  
118 0.3% 99.4%  
119 0.4% 99.1%  
120 0.8% 98.7%  
121 1.1% 98%  
122 1.5% 97%  
123 1.4% 95%  
124 3% 94%  
125 3% 91%  
126 3% 88%  
127 4% 85%  
128 5% 81%  
129 4% 76%  
130 6% 72%  
131 7% 66%  
132 5% 60%  
133 5% 55% Median
134 6% 50%  
135 8% 44%  
136 5% 36%  
137 4% 31%  
138 5% 27%  
139 4% 22%  
140 3% 18%  
141 3% 15%  
142 3% 12%  
143 2% 9%  
144 2% 8%  
145 2% 5%  
146 0.8% 4%  
147 0.7% 3%  
148 0.5% 2%  
149 0.6% 2%  
150 0.3% 1.0%  
151 0.3% 0.7%  
152 0.1% 0.5%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.6%  
86 0.4% 99.4%  
87 0.5% 99.0%  
88 1.2% 98%  
89 1.3% 97%  
90 2% 96%  
91 3% 94%  
92 3% 91%  
93 4% 88%  
94 4% 84%  
95 6% 80%  
96 6% 74%  
97 6% 68%  
98 10% 61%  
99 5% 51% Median
100 6% 46%  
101 5% 39%  
102 5% 35%  
103 6% 29%  
104 4% 23%  
105 5% 19%  
106 3% 14%  
107 3% 12%  
108 2% 8%  
109 2% 6%  
110 1.3% 4%  
111 1.1% 3%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 0.4% 1.3%  
114 0.3% 0.9%  
115 0.2% 0.6%  
116 0.1% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.3%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.7%  
78 0.2% 99.6%  
79 0.9% 99.4%  
80 0.6% 98.5%  
81 0.9% 98%  
82 1.1% 97%  
83 3% 96%  
84 2% 93%  
85 3% 91%  
86 6% 88%  
87 4% 83%  
88 8% 79%  
89 8% 71%  
90 6% 63%  
91 5% 57%  
92 11% 52% Median
93 4% 41%  
94 6% 37% Last Result
95 6% 31%  
96 4% 26%  
97 7% 21%  
98 2% 14%  
99 4% 12%  
100 3% 9%  
101 2% 6%  
102 1.0% 4%  
103 0.8% 3%  
104 0.6% 2%  
105 0.4% 1.2%  
106 0.3% 0.8%  
107 0.1% 0.5%  
108 0.2% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0% 98%  
38 0.8% 98%  
39 3% 97%  
40 3% 93%  
41 4% 91%  
42 8% 87%  
43 8% 79%  
44 6% 71%  
45 8% 65%  
46 15% 57% Median
47 11% 42%  
48 5% 31%  
49 9% 26%  
50 6% 17%  
51 3% 10%  
52 2% 7%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.7% 2%  
56 0.4% 1.1%  
57 0.5% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.8%  
30 0.8% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.6%  
32 2% 97%  
33 4% 95%  
34 7% 91%  
35 9% 84%  
36 8% 75%  
37 9% 67%  
38 11% 58% Median
39 11% 46%  
40 9% 35%  
41 7% 26%  
42 6% 19%  
43 5% 13%  
44 3% 9%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.2% 3% Last Result
47 0.8% 2%  
48 0.6% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 473 100% 462–483 459–487 457–494 452–511
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 439 100% 428–449 425–453 423–460 418–477
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 438 100% 428–449 425–454 423–460 418–475
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 396 100% 386–408 383–412 381–417 376–432
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 365 91% 355–377 352–381 350–386 345–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 339 5% 328–351 325–355 323–360 318–371
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 339 5% 329–350 326–354 323–358 318–369
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 313 0% 301–323 297–326 292–328 277–333
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 304 0% 294–315 292–321 290–324 284–334
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 298 0% 287–309 284–312 282–316 277–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 267 0% 256–277 254–281 251–284 246–292
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 232 0% 223–243 220–246 217–249 213–255
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 170–188 166–191 158–193 135–198

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 99.9%  
449 0.1% 99.9%  
450 0.1% 99.8%  
451 0.1% 99.8%  
452 0.2% 99.6%  
453 0.3% 99.4%  
454 0.2% 99.2%  
455 0.4% 98.9%  
456 0.5% 98.5%  
457 1.1% 98%  
458 0.8% 97%  
459 1.4% 96%  
460 0.9% 95%  
461 2% 94%  
462 2% 92%  
463 3% 90%  
464 3% 87%  
465 3% 85%  
466 3% 82% Last Result
467 5% 79%  
468 4% 74%  
469 5% 70%  
470 4% 65%  
471 5% 61%  
472 5% 56% Median
473 6% 50%  
474 3% 44%  
475 5% 41%  
476 4% 35%  
477 5% 31%  
478 3% 26%  
479 4% 23%  
480 2% 18%  
481 3% 16%  
482 2% 14%  
483 2% 12%  
484 2% 10%  
485 1.2% 8%  
486 1.2% 7%  
487 1.1% 6%  
488 0.5% 5%  
489 0.6% 4%  
490 0.3% 3%  
491 0.2% 3%  
492 0.2% 3%  
493 0.1% 3%  
494 0.1% 3%  
495 0.1% 2%  
496 0.1% 2%  
497 0.1% 2%  
498 0% 2%  
499 0.1% 2%  
500 0.1% 2%  
501 0.1% 2%  
502 0.1% 2%  
503 0.3% 2%  
504 0.1% 2%  
505 0.2% 2%  
506 0.1% 1.3%  
507 0.2% 1.2%  
508 0.1% 1.0%  
509 0.2% 0.9%  
510 0.1% 0.7%  
511 0.2% 0.7%  
512 0.1% 0.5%  
513 0.1% 0.4%  
514 0.1% 0.3%  
515 0.1% 0.2%  
516 0% 0.2%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.2% 99.7%  
418 0.2% 99.5%  
419 0.4% 99.3%  
420 0.4% 98.9%  
421 0.3% 98.6%  
422 0.7% 98%  
423 0.7% 98%  
424 1.3% 97%  
425 2% 96%  
426 0.9% 94%  
427 2% 93%  
428 2% 91%  
429 2% 89%  
430 4% 87%  
431 2% 83%  
432 3% 81%  
433 6% 77%  
434 3% 72%  
435 3% 69%  
436 6% 65%  
437 2% 59%  
438 6% 57% Median
439 7% 51%  
440 3% 44%  
441 6% 41%  
442 3% 34%  
443 4% 31%  
444 6% 27%  
445 2% 21%  
446 2% 20%  
447 4% 17%  
448 1.4% 13%  
449 2% 11%  
450 2% 10%  
451 0.9% 8%  
452 1.5% 7%  
453 0.6% 5%  
454 0.7% 5%  
455 0.6% 4%  
456 0.3% 3%  
457 0.3% 3%  
458 0.2% 3%  
459 0.2% 3%  
460 0.2% 3%  
461 0.1% 2%  
462 0.1% 2%  
463 0.1% 2%  
464 0% 2%  
465 0.1% 2%  
466 0% 2%  
467 0.1% 2%  
468 0.1% 2%  
469 0% 2%  
470 0.1% 2%  
471 0.2% 2%  
472 0% 1.3%  
473 0.1% 1.3%  
474 0.2% 1.2%  
475 0.3% 1.0%  
476 0.1% 0.7%  
477 0.1% 0.6%  
478 0% 0.5%  
479 0.1% 0.4%  
480 0.2% 0.3%  
481 0% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.2% 99.6%  
419 0.4% 99.4%  
420 0.4% 99.0%  
421 0.5% 98.6%  
422 0.3% 98%  
423 0.7% 98%  
424 1.3% 97%  
425 2% 96%  
426 2% 94%  
427 1.3% 92%  
428 1.4% 91%  
429 2% 90%  
430 3% 88%  
431 4% 84%  
432 3% 80%  
433 3% 76%  
434 4% 73%  
435 4% 69%  
436 8% 65%  
437 5% 57%  
438 3% 52% Median
439 4% 49%  
440 3% 44%  
441 7% 41%  
442 6% 34%  
443 4% 29%  
444 2% 25%  
445 3% 23%  
446 4% 20%  
447 3% 17%  
448 3% 14%  
449 1.3% 11%  
450 1.3% 10%  
451 1.1% 9%  
452 1.1% 8%  
453 1.3% 6%  
454 0.9% 5%  
455 0.4% 4%  
456 0.4% 4%  
457 0.3% 3%  
458 0.4% 3%  
459 0.2% 3%  
460 0.2% 3%  
461 0.1% 2%  
462 0.1% 2%  
463 0.2% 2%  
464 0.1% 2%  
465 0.2% 2%  
466 0.2% 2%  
467 0.2% 1.5%  
468 0.1% 1.2%  
469 0.1% 1.2%  
470 0.1% 1.1%  
471 0.1% 1.0%  
472 0.1% 0.9%  
473 0.3% 0.8%  
474 0% 0.5%  
475 0% 0.5%  
476 0% 0.5%  
477 0.1% 0.4%  
478 0% 0.3%  
479 0% 0.3% Last Result
480 0.1% 0.2%  
481 0% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0.1% 0.1%  
485 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.7%  
376 0.2% 99.6%  
377 0.4% 99.4%  
378 0.4% 99.0%  
379 0.3% 98.6%  
380 0.5% 98%  
381 1.1% 98%  
382 1.1% 97%  
383 0.9% 96%  
384 0.9% 95%  
385 1.4% 94%  
386 3% 92%  
387 4% 90%  
388 2% 86%  
389 3% 83%  
390 3% 81%  
391 3% 78%  
392 5% 75%  
393 3% 69%  
394 4% 66%  
395 4% 62%  
396 8% 58%  
397 5% 50% Median
398 4% 45%  
399 3% 40%  
400 4% 38%  
401 6% 34%  
402 3% 28%  
403 2% 25%  
404 3% 22%  
405 4% 20%  
406 4% 16%  
407 2% 12%  
408 1.2% 10%  
409 1.3% 9%  
410 1.1% 8%  
411 1.2% 7%  
412 0.7% 5%  
413 0.6% 5%  
414 0.6% 4%  
415 0.6% 4%  
416 0.4% 3%  
417 0.2% 3%  
418 0.2% 2%  
419 0.2% 2%  
420 0.2% 2% Last Result
421 0.1% 2%  
422 0.1% 2%  
423 0.1% 2%  
424 0.1% 1.5%  
425 0.1% 1.4%  
426 0.1% 1.2%  
427 0.1% 1.1%  
428 0.1% 1.1%  
429 0.3% 1.0%  
430 0.1% 0.7%  
431 0.1% 0.6%  
432 0% 0.5%  
433 0.1% 0.5%  
434 0% 0.4%  
435 0.1% 0.4%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.2% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.5%  
346 0.3% 99.4%  
347 0.4% 99.1%  
348 0.4% 98.6%  
349 0.5% 98%  
350 0.9% 98%  
351 1.0% 97%  
352 0.9% 96%  
353 1.0% 95%  
354 3% 94%  
355 2% 91% Majority
356 2% 89%  
357 2% 87%  
358 4% 85%  
359 3% 81%  
360 5% 78%  
361 5% 73%  
362 3% 68%  
363 3% 65%  
364 5% 62%  
365 7% 57% Median
366 2% 49%  
367 5% 47%  
368 5% 42%  
369 5% 37%  
370 4% 32%  
371 4% 29%  
372 3% 24%  
373 4% 21%  
374 2% 18%  
375 2% 15%  
376 2% 13%  
377 2% 11%  
378 1.2% 9%  
379 2% 8%  
380 1.3% 7%  
381 0.8% 5%  
382 0.3% 5%  
383 1.0% 4%  
384 0.4% 3%  
385 0.3% 3%  
386 0.3% 3%  
387 0.5% 2%  
388 0.1% 2%  
389 0.2% 2%  
390 0.2% 1.4%  
391 0.2% 1.2%  
392 0.1% 1.0%  
393 0.1% 1.0%  
394 0.1% 0.8%  
395 0.1% 0.7%  
396 0.1% 0.6%  
397 0.1% 0.6%  
398 0.2% 0.5%  
399 0% 0.4%  
400 0% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9% Last Result
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.7%  
318 0.1% 99.6%  
319 0.2% 99.4%  
320 0.4% 99.3%  
321 0.3% 98.8%  
322 0.5% 98.5%  
323 0.8% 98%  
324 0.8% 97%  
325 2% 96%  
326 1.1% 95%  
327 2% 94%  
328 2% 92%  
329 2% 90%  
330 3% 88%  
331 3% 85%  
332 3% 82%  
333 3% 79%  
334 4% 76%  
335 4% 72%  
336 5% 68%  
337 3% 62%  
338 6% 59%  
339 4% 53% Median
340 4% 49%  
341 6% 45%  
342 4% 39%  
343 4% 35%  
344 4% 31%  
345 3% 27%  
346 4% 24%  
347 2% 20%  
348 3% 17%  
349 3% 15%  
350 2% 12%  
351 2% 11%  
352 1.4% 9%  
353 0.9% 7%  
354 1.2% 7%  
355 0.7% 5% Majority
356 0.7% 5%  
357 0.4% 4%  
358 0.5% 4%  
359 0.4% 3%  
360 0.2% 3%  
361 0.2% 2%  
362 0.2% 2%  
363 0.1% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.1% 2%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.1% 1.2%  
368 0.3% 1.1%  
369 0.1% 0.8%  
370 0.1% 0.6%  
371 0.1% 0.5%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0.1% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.7%  
318 0.2% 99.6%  
319 0.2% 99.5%  
320 0.5% 99.3%  
321 0.3% 98.9%  
322 0.5% 98.5%  
323 0.8% 98%  
324 1.0% 97%  
325 0.9% 96%  
326 1.3% 95%  
327 2% 94%  
328 3% 93%  
329 2% 90%  
330 3% 88%  
331 3% 85%  
332 3% 83%  
333 3% 79%  
334 4% 76%  
335 3% 73%  
336 4% 70%  
337 6% 66%  
338 6% 59%  
339 6% 53% Median
340 3% 47%  
341 6% 43%  
342 4% 38%  
343 4% 34%  
344 3% 30%  
345 3% 27%  
346 3% 23%  
347 3% 20%  
348 3% 17%  
349 2% 14%  
350 2% 12%  
351 1.4% 10%  
352 1.3% 9%  
353 1.4% 7%  
354 1.1% 6%  
355 0.5% 5% Majority
356 0.8% 4%  
357 0.5% 4%  
358 0.6% 3%  
359 0.4% 2%  
360 0.3% 2%  
361 0.2% 2%  
362 0.1% 1.5%  
363 0.1% 1.4%  
364 0.1% 1.2%  
365 0.1% 1.1%  
366 0.2% 1.0%  
367 0.1% 0.8%  
368 0.1% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.5%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.5%  
279 0.1% 99.4%  
280 0.3% 99.3%  
281 0.1% 99.0%  
282 0.1% 98.9%  
283 0.1% 98.9%  
284 0.1% 98.8%  
285 0.1% 98.6%  
286 0.1% 98.5%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0.2% 98% Last Result
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.4% 97%  
294 0.6% 97%  
295 0.6% 96%  
296 0.6% 96%  
297 0.7% 95%  
298 1.2% 95%  
299 1.1% 93%  
300 1.3% 92%  
301 1.2% 91%  
302 2% 90%  
303 4% 88%  
304 4% 84%  
305 3% 80%  
306 2% 78%  
307 3% 75%  
308 6% 72%  
309 4% 66%  
310 3% 62%  
311 4% 60%  
312 5% 55% Median
313 8% 50%  
314 4% 42%  
315 4% 38%  
316 3% 34%  
317 5% 31%  
318 3% 25%  
319 3% 22%  
320 3% 19%  
321 2% 17%  
322 4% 14%  
323 3% 10%  
324 1.4% 8%  
325 0.9% 6%  
326 0.9% 5%  
327 1.1% 4%  
328 1.1% 3%  
329 0.5% 2%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.4% 1.4%  
332 0.4% 1.0%  
333 0.2% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.2% 99.7%  
284 0.2% 99.6%  
285 0.2% 99.4%  
286 0.3% 99.2%  
287 0.2% 98.9%  
288 0.4% 98.7%  
289 0.7% 98%  
290 0.9% 98%  
291 2% 97%  
292 2% 95%  
293 2% 93%  
294 2% 91%  
295 3% 90%  
296 2% 87%  
297 2% 85%  
298 2% 83%  
299 3% 81%  
300 4% 77%  
301 6% 73%  
302 5% 68%  
303 7% 63%  
304 6% 56%  
305 5% 50% Median
306 4% 45%  
307 2% 41%  
308 2% 39%  
309 5% 37%  
310 4% 32%  
311 4% 28%  
312 4% 24%  
313 4% 20%  
314 4% 16%  
315 2% 12%  
316 1.0% 10%  
317 1.0% 9%  
318 0.9% 8%  
319 0.7% 7%  
320 0.9% 6%  
321 1.0% 5%  
322 0.9% 4%  
323 0.6% 3%  
324 0.4% 3%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.3% 2% Last Result
327 0.1% 2%  
328 0.1% 2%  
329 0.1% 2%  
330 0.3% 1.5%  
331 0.2% 1.2%  
332 0.2% 1.0%  
333 0.1% 0.8%  
334 0.3% 0.7%  
335 0% 0.4%  
336 0% 0.4%  
337 0% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.2% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.2% 99.6%  
278 0.3% 99.4%  
279 0.3% 99.1%  
280 0.3% 98.8%  
281 0.9% 98%  
282 0.8% 98%  
283 0.6% 97%  
284 1.3% 96%  
285 2% 95%  
286 1.3% 93%  
287 2% 92%  
288 2% 89%  
289 4% 87%  
290 2% 83%  
291 4% 81%  
292 5% 77%  
293 3% 73%  
294 4% 70%  
295 6% 66%  
296 4% 60%  
297 3% 56%  
298 8% 53% Median
299 4% 45%  
300 4% 41%  
301 4% 37%  
302 6% 33%  
303 3% 27%  
304 2% 24%  
305 5% 22%  
306 2% 17%  
307 2% 15%  
308 3% 13%  
309 2% 11%  
310 0.6% 8%  
311 1.4% 8%  
312 2% 6%  
313 0.7% 5%  
314 0.6% 4%  
315 0.8% 4%  
316 0.3% 3%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.3% 2%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.1% 1.4%  
322 0.4% 1.3%  
323 0.1% 0.9%  
324 0.1% 0.7%  
325 0.1% 0.7%  
326 0.2% 0.6%  
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0.1% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.7%  
246 0.2% 99.6%  
247 0.2% 99.4%  
248 0.3% 99.2%  
249 0.5% 98.9%  
250 0.5% 98%  
251 0.8% 98%  
252 0.9% 97%  
253 1.2% 96%  
254 2% 95%  
255 2% 93%  
256 2% 91%  
257 2% 90%  
258 3% 88%  
259 3% 85%  
260 3% 81%  
261 4% 78%  
262 5% 74%  
263 5% 69%  
264 4% 64%  
265 5% 61%  
266 5% 56% Median
267 7% 51%  
268 4% 44%  
269 3% 40%  
270 5% 37%  
271 3% 32%  
272 5% 29%  
273 4% 24%  
274 3% 20%  
275 3% 17%  
276 3% 14%  
277 2% 11%  
278 1.5% 10%  
279 1.3% 8%  
280 2% 7%  
281 1.1% 5%  
282 0.8% 4%  
283 0.7% 4%  
284 0.6% 3%  
285 0.5% 2%  
286 0.3% 2%  
287 0.3% 1.5%  
288 0.2% 1.2%  
289 0.2% 1.0%  
290 0.2% 0.8%  
291 0.1% 0.6%  
292 0.1% 0.5%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.4%  
295 0.1% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.7%  
213 0.2% 99.6%  
214 0.3% 99.4%  
215 0.4% 99.1%  
216 0.5% 98.7%  
217 0.8% 98%  
218 0.9% 97%  
219 1.0% 96%  
220 1.1% 96%  
221 2% 94%  
222 2% 92%  
223 3% 90%  
224 3% 87%  
225 4% 84%  
226 3% 81%  
227 3% 77%  
228 5% 74%  
229 4% 70%  
230 7% 65%  
231 4% 58%  
232 6% 54% Median
233 5% 48% Last Result
234 4% 43%  
235 3% 39%  
236 4% 36%  
237 5% 32%  
238 3% 27%  
239 4% 23%  
240 4% 20%  
241 2% 16%  
242 3% 14%  
243 1.4% 11%  
244 2% 9%  
245 2% 8%  
246 1.2% 6%  
247 1.0% 5%  
248 0.9% 4%  
249 1.0% 3%  
250 0.3% 2%  
251 0.3% 2%  
252 0.4% 1.3%  
253 0.2% 0.9%  
254 0.2% 0.8%  
255 0.1% 0.6%  
256 0.1% 0.5%  
257 0.1% 0.4%  
258 0.1% 0.3%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0.1% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0.1% 100%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.8%  
132 0% 99.8%  
133 0.2% 99.8%  
134 0% 99.6%  
135 0.3% 99.6%  
136 0.2% 99.3%  
137 0% 99.1%  
138 0.1% 99.1%  
139 0% 99.0%  
140 0.1% 98.9%  
141 0.4% 98.9%  
142 0.1% 98.5%  
143 0.2% 98%  
144 0.1% 98%  
145 0% 98%  
146 0.1% 98%  
147 0% 98%  
148 0.1% 98%  
149 0.2% 98%  
150 0% 98%  
151 0% 98%  
152 0% 98%  
153 0% 98%  
154 0% 98%  
155 0% 98%  
156 0% 98%  
157 0% 98%  
158 0.1% 98%  
159 0.1% 97%  
160 0.1% 97%  
161 0.2% 97%  
162 0.2% 97%  
163 0.2% 97%  
164 0.4% 97%  
165 1.1% 96%  
166 1.4% 95%  
167 1.4% 94%  
168 1.0% 92%  
169 0.8% 91%  
170 2% 91%  
171 3% 89%  
172 5% 86%  
173 7% 81%  
174 4% 75%  
175 2% 71%  
176 3% 68%  
177 4% 66%  
178 7% 62%  
179 8% 54% Median
180 9% 47%  
181 5% 38%  
182 3% 33%  
183 3% 31%  
184 4% 28%  
185 5% 24%  
186 5% 19%  
187 4% 14%  
188 2% 10%  
189 1.3% 8%  
190 1.1% 7%  
191 1.1% 6%  
192 1.5% 5%  
193 1.3% 3%  
194 0.6% 2%  
195 0.4% 1.4%  
196 0.2% 1.0%  
197 0.1% 0.8%  
198 0.2% 0.7%  
199 0.2% 0.4%  
200 0.1% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations