Opinion Poll by YouGov, 23–26 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.7% 21.5–24.0% 21.1–24.4% 20.8–24.7% 20.2–25.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.9–17.2% 14.6–17.5% 14.4–17.8% 13.9–18.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 14.9–17.2% 14.6–17.5% 14.4–17.8% 13.9–18.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.1–13.1% 10.8–13.4% 10.6–13.6% 10.1–14.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.1–13.1% 10.8–13.4% 10.6–13.6% 10.1–14.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.4% 6.5–9.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.6–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.0–6.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 173 164–184 161–186 159–189 155–194
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 123 115–131 112–134 110–136 106–140
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 123 115–132 112–134 110–136 106–141
Alternative für Deutschland 94 92 85–100 83–102 81–104 78–108
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 92 85–100 83–102 81–104 77–108
Die Linke 69 61 55–68 54–70 52–72 50–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 44 39–49 37–51 36–52 34–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.2% 99.7%  
155 0.2% 99.6%  
156 0.4% 99.4%  
157 0.3% 99.0%  
158 0.8% 98.7%  
159 0.6% 98%  
160 1.0% 97%  
161 1.4% 96%  
162 1.5% 95%  
163 3% 93%  
164 2% 91%  
165 4% 89%  
166 2% 85%  
167 4% 83%  
168 5% 79%  
169 3% 74%  
170 6% 71%  
171 3% 65%  
172 6% 62%  
173 6% 56% Median
174 5% 50%  
175 5% 44%  
176 5% 40%  
177 5% 35%  
178 4% 30%  
179 5% 26%  
180 2% 21%  
181 4% 19%  
182 3% 15%  
183 2% 12%  
184 2% 10%  
185 1.4% 8%  
186 2% 6%  
187 0.8% 5%  
188 1.1% 4%  
189 0.7% 3%  
190 0.5% 2%  
191 0.5% 2%  
192 0.2% 1.1%  
193 0.3% 0.9%  
194 0.1% 0.5%  
195 0.2% 0.4%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.3% 99.6%  
107 0.4% 99.3%  
108 0.5% 98.9%  
109 0.6% 98%  
110 0.8% 98%  
111 1.0% 97%  
112 2% 96%  
113 2% 94%  
114 3% 93%  
115 3% 90%  
116 4% 87%  
117 4% 83%  
118 6% 79%  
119 5% 74%  
120 5% 69%  
121 5% 64%  
122 4% 59%  
123 5% 54% Median
124 6% 49%  
125 6% 44%  
126 7% 37%  
127 7% 31%  
128 4% 24%  
129 5% 20%  
130 3% 15%  
131 3% 12%  
132 2% 9%  
133 2% 8%  
134 1.3% 6%  
135 1.3% 5%  
136 1.0% 3%  
137 0.6% 2%  
138 0.6% 2%  
139 0.4% 1.0%  
140 0.2% 0.7%  
141 0.2% 0.5%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.6%  
107 0.3% 99.4%  
108 0.5% 99.1%  
109 0.6% 98.6%  
110 1.0% 98%  
111 1.0% 97%  
112 2% 96%  
113 2% 94%  
114 2% 92%  
115 4% 90%  
116 3% 86%  
117 5% 83%  
118 4% 78%  
119 4% 74%  
120 6% 69%  
121 6% 64%  
122 6% 58%  
123 7% 51% Median
124 5% 45%  
125 5% 40%  
126 5% 35%  
127 5% 30%  
128 4% 24%  
129 4% 20%  
130 4% 16%  
131 2% 12%  
132 2% 10%  
133 2% 8%  
134 1.3% 6%  
135 1.2% 4%  
136 0.9% 3%  
137 0.6% 2%  
138 0.5% 2%  
139 0.3% 1.1%  
140 0.2% 0.7%  
141 0.2% 0.5%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.7%  
78 0.5% 99.5%  
79 0.5% 99.0%  
80 0.7% 98.6%  
81 1.1% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 2% 95%  
84 3% 93%  
85 3% 90%  
86 4% 87%  
87 4% 83%  
88 6% 79%  
89 5% 73%  
90 7% 68%  
91 7% 61%  
92 5% 54% Median
93 8% 49%  
94 6% 41% Last Result
95 5% 35%  
96 7% 30%  
97 4% 23%  
98 5% 19%  
99 3% 14%  
100 3% 11%  
101 2% 8%  
102 2% 6%  
103 1.2% 4%  
104 1.0% 3%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.4% 1.4%  
107 0.3% 1.0%  
108 0.3% 0.7%  
109 0.1% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.7%  
78 0.3% 99.5%  
79 0.5% 99.2%  
80 0.7% 98.7% Last Result
81 0.9% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 2% 95%  
84 3% 93%  
85 3% 90%  
86 4% 87%  
87 4% 83%  
88 5% 79%  
89 5% 73%  
90 8% 68%  
91 6% 60%  
92 7% 54% Median
93 7% 47%  
94 7% 40%  
95 6% 34%  
96 5% 28%  
97 5% 23%  
98 4% 18%  
99 3% 14%  
100 3% 11%  
101 2% 8%  
102 2% 6%  
103 1.1% 4%  
104 0.9% 3%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.6% 2%  
107 0.3% 0.9%  
108 0.2% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.5%  
51 0.7% 99.1%  
52 1.2% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 4% 92%  
56 4% 88%  
57 6% 84%  
58 7% 78%  
59 7% 71%  
60 7% 64%  
61 9% 57% Median
62 8% 49%  
63 8% 40%  
64 7% 33%  
65 4% 26%  
66 5% 21%  
67 5% 16%  
68 3% 12%  
69 3% 9% Last Result
70 2% 6%  
71 1.4% 4%  
72 1.0% 3%  
73 0.8% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.7%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 0.4% 99.6%  
35 0.8% 99.2%  
36 2% 98%  
37 3% 96%  
38 3% 93%  
39 5% 90%  
40 9% 85%  
41 10% 76%  
42 6% 66%  
43 8% 60%  
44 12% 51% Median
45 10% 40%  
46 6% 29% Last Result
47 5% 24%  
48 6% 18%  
49 5% 12%  
50 2% 7%  
51 1.4% 5%  
52 2% 4%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.4% 1.0%  
55 0.2% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 463 100% 452–474 449–477 447–480 441–484
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 432 100% 421–444 418–447 415–449 410–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 433 100% 422–443 418–447 415–449 410–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 402 100% 391–413 387–416 385–419 379–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 341 6% 329–352 326–355 323–358 317–363
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 340 5% 329–352 326–354 323–357 318–363
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 338 3% 326–349 323–352 320–355 315–360
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 310 0% 298–321 295–324 293–327 287–333
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 309 0% 298–321 295–324 293–327 287–332
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 307 0% 296–318 293–322 290–324 285–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 247 0% 234–255 232–260 228–261 225–267
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 215 0% 205–226 202–229 200–231 194–235
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 184 0% 175–195 172–197 170–200 165–205

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0.1% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.8%  
440 0.1% 99.7%  
441 0.2% 99.6%  
442 0.2% 99.4%  
443 0.3% 99.2%  
444 0.3% 98.9%  
445 0.5% 98.6%  
446 0.5% 98%  
447 0.8% 98%  
448 0.7% 97%  
449 1.1% 96%  
450 2% 95%  
451 2% 93%  
452 2% 91%  
453 2% 89%  
454 3% 87%  
455 3% 85%  
456 3% 81%  
457 3% 78%  
458 4% 75%  
459 5% 71%  
460 4% 66%  
461 4% 63%  
462 4% 58%  
463 5% 54% Median
464 5% 50%  
465 4% 44%  
466 5% 40% Last Result
467 5% 35%  
468 5% 30%  
469 3% 25%  
470 3% 22%  
471 3% 19%  
472 3% 16%  
473 2% 13%  
474 2% 11%  
475 2% 9%  
476 2% 7%  
477 1.2% 5%  
478 1.0% 4%  
479 0.6% 3%  
480 0.8% 3%  
481 0.5% 2%  
482 0.5% 1.4%  
483 0.3% 0.9%  
484 0.2% 0.6%  
485 0.1% 0.4%  
486 0.1% 0.3%  
487 0.1% 0.2%  
488 0% 0.2%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.9%  
408 0.1% 99.8%  
409 0.1% 99.7%  
410 0.1% 99.6%  
411 0.2% 99.4%  
412 0.2% 99.3%  
413 0.4% 99.0%  
414 0.7% 98.6%  
415 0.5% 98%  
416 0.9% 97%  
417 0.8% 96%  
418 0.9% 96%  
419 1.5% 95%  
420 2% 93%  
421 2% 91%  
422 2% 89%  
423 2% 87%  
424 2% 85%  
425 3% 83%  
426 4% 80%  
427 3% 76%  
428 5% 73%  
429 5% 68%  
430 3% 63%  
431 5% 60%  
432 6% 55% Median
433 7% 49%  
434 5% 42%  
435 4% 37%  
436 4% 33%  
437 3% 29%  
438 3% 26%  
439 4% 23%  
440 3% 19%  
441 3% 16%  
442 2% 14%  
443 2% 12%  
444 2% 10%  
445 2% 9%  
446 1.4% 7%  
447 1.4% 6%  
448 1.1% 4%  
449 0.8% 3%  
450 0.6% 2%  
451 0.6% 2%  
452 0.3% 1.2%  
453 0.3% 0.9%  
454 0.2% 0.6%  
455 0.1% 0.4%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0.1% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0.1% 99.8%  
409 0.1% 99.7%  
410 0.2% 99.6%  
411 0.2% 99.4%  
412 0.3% 99.2%  
413 0.3% 98.9%  
414 0.5% 98.5%  
415 0.6% 98%  
416 0.8% 97%  
417 0.9% 97%  
418 1.3% 96%  
419 1.1% 94%  
420 1.2% 93%  
421 2% 92%  
422 2% 90%  
423 3% 88%  
424 3% 85%  
425 4% 82%  
426 3% 78%  
427 3% 75%  
428 6% 72%  
429 3% 66%  
430 4% 63%  
431 4% 59%  
432 4% 55% Median
433 5% 51%  
434 4% 45%  
435 3% 41%  
436 5% 38%  
437 5% 33%  
438 3% 27%  
439 4% 24%  
440 3% 20%  
441 3% 17%  
442 2% 14%  
443 2% 12%  
444 2% 10%  
445 1.2% 8%  
446 1.2% 6%  
447 0.7% 5%  
448 1.2% 4%  
449 0.9% 3%  
450 0.7% 2%  
451 0.5% 2%  
452 0.3% 1.2%  
453 0.3% 0.9%  
454 0.2% 0.6%  
455 0.2% 0.5%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0.1% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.7%  
379 0.2% 99.6%  
380 0.2% 99.5%  
381 0.2% 99.3%  
382 0.4% 99.1%  
383 0.4% 98.7%  
384 0.5% 98%  
385 1.1% 98%  
386 0.7% 97%  
387 1.4% 96%  
388 0.9% 95%  
389 2% 94%  
390 2% 92%  
391 2% 90%  
392 3% 88%  
393 3% 85%  
394 4% 82%  
395 3% 78%  
396 4% 75%  
397 4% 72%  
398 4% 67%  
399 3% 63%  
400 5% 60%  
401 3% 54% Median
402 6% 51%  
403 4% 46%  
404 4% 41%  
405 4% 37%  
406 5% 33%  
407 3% 29%  
408 5% 26%  
409 2% 21%  
410 3% 19%  
411 3% 16%  
412 2% 13%  
413 2% 11%  
414 2% 9%  
415 1.2% 7%  
416 1.0% 6%  
417 1.2% 5%  
418 0.9% 4%  
419 0.7% 3%  
420 0.5% 2% Last Result
421 0.4% 2%  
422 0.3% 1.2%  
423 0.3% 0.9%  
424 0.2% 0.7%  
425 0.1% 0.5%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.2% 99.5%  
319 0.2% 99.3%  
320 0.2% 99.1%  
321 0.3% 98.8%  
322 0.6% 98.5%  
323 0.7% 98%  
324 0.8% 97%  
325 1.1% 96%  
326 1.3% 95%  
327 2% 94%  
328 1.5% 92%  
329 3% 91%  
330 3% 88%  
331 3% 86%  
332 2% 83%  
333 3% 81%  
334 4% 77%  
335 3% 74%  
336 4% 70%  
337 3% 67%  
338 5% 64%  
339 4% 59%  
340 4% 55% Median
341 6% 50%  
342 4% 45%  
343 5% 41%  
344 5% 36%  
345 3% 31%  
346 5% 28%  
347 2% 22%  
348 3% 20%  
349 2% 17%  
350 2% 14%  
351 2% 12%  
352 2% 10%  
353 2% 8%  
354 1.0% 7%  
355 1.2% 6% Majority
356 1.1% 4%  
357 0.7% 3%  
358 0.7% 3%  
359 0.4% 2%  
360 0.4% 1.5%  
361 0.4% 1.1%  
362 0.2% 0.7%  
363 0.2% 0.6%  
364 0.1% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0.1% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9% Last Result
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.7%  
318 0.3% 99.6%  
319 0.3% 99.3%  
320 0.3% 99.1%  
321 0.4% 98.8%  
322 0.5% 98%  
323 0.5% 98%  
324 1.0% 97%  
325 1.2% 96%  
326 0.9% 95%  
327 2% 94%  
328 2% 92%  
329 2% 90%  
330 2% 88%  
331 2% 86%  
332 3% 84%  
333 4% 81%  
334 4% 77%  
335 4% 73%  
336 4% 69%  
337 3% 65%  
338 4% 63%  
339 5% 59%  
340 4% 54% Median
341 6% 49%  
342 7% 43%  
343 4% 37%  
344 3% 33%  
345 3% 29%  
346 3% 26%  
347 2% 24%  
348 3% 21%  
349 3% 18%  
350 4% 16%  
351 2% 12%  
352 2% 11%  
353 2% 8%  
354 2% 6%  
355 1.0% 5% Majority
356 0.9% 4%  
357 0.6% 3%  
358 0.4% 2%  
359 0.3% 2%  
360 0.4% 2%  
361 0.3% 1.2%  
362 0.3% 0.9%  
363 0.2% 0.6%  
364 0.2% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.2% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.2% 99.4%  
317 0.3% 99.2%  
318 0.3% 98.9%  
319 0.7% 98.6%  
320 0.6% 98%  
321 0.7% 97%  
322 0.9% 97%  
323 1.3% 96%  
324 2% 94%  
325 2% 93%  
326 1.1% 91%  
327 2% 90%  
328 2% 88%  
329 2% 86%  
330 3% 83%  
331 3% 80%  
332 3% 77%  
333 4% 75%  
334 4% 71%  
335 3% 67%  
336 5% 63%  
337 3% 58%  
338 5% 55% Median
339 5% 49%  
340 3% 44%  
341 5% 41%  
342 4% 36%  
343 5% 32%  
344 4% 27%  
345 3% 23%  
346 3% 20%  
347 4% 17%  
348 2% 13%  
349 2% 11%  
350 2% 9%  
351 1.2% 7%  
352 2% 6%  
353 1.1% 4%  
354 0.6% 3%  
355 0.6% 3% Majority
356 0.5% 2%  
357 0.3% 2%  
358 0.3% 1.2%  
359 0.2% 0.9%  
360 0.2% 0.7%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.2% 99.7%  
288 0.2% 99.5%  
289 0.2% 99.2%  
290 0.2% 99.1%  
291 0.3% 98.8%  
292 0.7% 98.5%  
293 1.1% 98%  
294 1.1% 97%  
295 1.0% 96%  
296 2% 94%  
297 2% 93%  
298 1.5% 91%  
299 2% 90%  
300 3% 88%  
301 2% 85%  
302 5% 83%  
303 4% 78%  
304 5% 74%  
305 3% 70%  
306 4% 66%  
307 4% 62%  
308 3% 58%  
309 5% 56% Median
310 6% 51%  
311 5% 45%  
312 6% 40%  
313 4% 34%  
314 3% 30%  
315 3% 28%  
316 2% 24%  
317 3% 22%  
318 3% 19%  
319 4% 16%  
320 2% 12%  
321 1.4% 10%  
322 2% 9%  
323 1.4% 7%  
324 1.3% 6%  
325 0.9% 5%  
326 1.0% 4%  
327 0.6% 3%  
328 0.5% 2%  
329 0.3% 2%  
330 0.3% 1.2%  
331 0.2% 1.0%  
332 0.2% 0.7%  
333 0.2% 0.5%  
334 0.2% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.2% 99.7%  
288 0.3% 99.5%  
289 0.2% 99.2%  
290 0.3% 99.0%  
291 0.4% 98.7%  
292 0.6% 98%  
293 1.2% 98%  
294 0.7% 97%  
295 0.9% 96%  
296 2% 95%  
297 2% 93%  
298 1.5% 91%  
299 2% 89%  
300 3% 88%  
301 3% 84%  
302 3% 82%  
303 4% 79%  
304 4% 75%  
305 4% 72%  
306 4% 68%  
307 4% 63%  
308 5% 59%  
309 5% 54% Median
310 5% 49%  
311 5% 44%  
312 5% 39%  
313 4% 34%  
314 4% 30%  
315 4% 27%  
316 3% 23%  
317 3% 20%  
318 3% 17%  
319 2% 15%  
320 2% 13%  
321 2% 11%  
322 2% 9%  
323 2% 7%  
324 0.8% 6%  
325 1.1% 5%  
326 1.0% 4% Last Result
327 0.5% 3%  
328 0.6% 2%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.4% 1.3%  
331 0.3% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0.2% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.2% 99.5%  
286 0.3% 99.3%  
287 0.3% 99.1%  
288 0.4% 98.8%  
289 0.5% 98% Last Result
290 0.7% 98%  
291 0.9% 97%  
292 1.2% 96%  
293 1.0% 95%  
294 1.2% 94%  
295 2% 93%  
296 2% 91%  
297 2% 89%  
298 3% 87%  
299 3% 84%  
300 2% 81%  
301 5% 79%  
302 3% 74%  
303 5% 71%  
304 4% 67%  
305 4% 63%  
306 4% 59%  
307 6% 54% Median
308 3% 49%  
309 5% 46%  
310 3% 40%  
311 4% 37%  
312 4% 33%  
313 4% 28%  
314 3% 25%  
315 4% 22%  
316 3% 18%  
317 3% 15%  
318 2% 12%  
319 2% 10%  
320 2% 8%  
321 0.9% 6%  
322 1.4% 5%  
323 0.7% 4%  
324 1.1% 3%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.4% 2%  
327 0.4% 1.3%  
328 0.2% 0.9%  
329 0.2% 0.7%  
330 0.2% 0.5%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0.1% 99.6%  
225 0.1% 99.5%  
226 0.4% 99.4%  
227 0.6% 99.0%  
228 0.9% 98%  
229 1.0% 97%  
230 0.5% 96%  
231 0.4% 96%  
232 0.8% 96%  
233 1.4% 95%  
234 4% 93%  
235 3% 89%  
236 2% 87%  
237 1.2% 85%  
238 1.3% 84%  
239 3% 82%  
240 4% 79%  
241 6% 75%  
242 5% 69%  
243 2% 65%  
244 1.0% 62%  
245 5% 61%  
246 6% 57% Median
247 7% 50%  
248 8% 43%  
249 4% 35%  
250 2% 31%  
251 2% 29%  
252 3% 28%  
253 4% 24%  
254 7% 20%  
255 4% 14%  
256 2% 10%  
257 0.9% 8%  
258 0.7% 7%  
259 1.1% 6%  
260 2% 5%  
261 1.4% 4%  
262 0.7% 2%  
263 0.4% 2%  
264 0.1% 1.3%  
265 0.3% 1.2%  
266 0.3% 0.9%  
267 0.2% 0.7%  
268 0.2% 0.4%  
269 0.1% 0.3%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.8%  
193 0.1% 99.7%  
194 0.2% 99.6%  
195 0.2% 99.5%  
196 0.2% 99.2%  
197 0.5% 99.0%  
198 0.3% 98.5%  
199 0.6% 98%  
200 2% 98%  
201 0.6% 96%  
202 2% 95%  
203 1.4% 93%  
204 1.1% 92%  
205 2% 91%  
206 2% 89%  
207 3% 86%  
208 5% 83%  
209 3% 78%  
210 4% 75%  
211 4% 71%  
212 3% 67%  
213 6% 65%  
214 5% 59%  
215 4% 54% Median
216 8% 50%  
217 3% 42%  
218 4% 39%  
219 6% 34%  
220 2% 29%  
221 5% 26%  
222 3% 21%  
223 3% 18%  
224 2% 15%  
225 2% 13%  
226 2% 10%  
227 3% 9%  
228 0.7% 6%  
229 1.2% 5%  
230 0.9% 4%  
231 0.6% 3%  
232 0.8% 2%  
233 0.5% 2% Last Result
234 0.2% 1.1%  
235 0.4% 0.9%  
236 0.1% 0.5%  
237 0.1% 0.4%  
238 0.1% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.2%  
240 0.1% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.8%  
164 0.1% 99.7%  
165 0.2% 99.6%  
166 0.4% 99.3%  
167 0.5% 99.0%  
168 0.4% 98%  
169 0.5% 98%  
170 1.3% 98%  
171 1.0% 96%  
172 1.1% 95%  
173 1.2% 94%  
174 2% 93%  
175 4% 91%  
176 2% 87%  
177 3% 85%  
178 4% 82%  
179 5% 78%  
180 5% 74%  
181 3% 69%  
182 5% 65%  
183 5% 60%  
184 7% 55% Median
185 3% 48%  
186 5% 45%  
187 5% 40%  
188 6% 35%  
189 3% 29%  
190 4% 26%  
191 4% 22%  
192 3% 18%  
193 3% 15%  
194 2% 12%  
195 2% 10%  
196 2% 8%  
197 1.2% 6%  
198 1.0% 5%  
199 0.8% 4%  
200 0.8% 3%  
201 0.6% 2%  
202 0.3% 1.4%  
203 0.2% 1.1%  
204 0.3% 0.8%  
205 0.2% 0.5%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations