Opinion Poll by Kantar, 20–27 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.9% 20.6–23.4% 20.2–23.8% 19.9–24.1% 19.2–24.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.7–20.4% 17.4–20.8% 17.1–21.1% 16.5–21.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.2–19.0% 14.6–19.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.6–14.5% 11.3–14.8% 10.8–15.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.2% 9.8–12.5% 9.5–12.8% 9.1–13.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.0% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.3% 4.5–7.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 166 156–178 152–181 151–185 145–191
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 144 134–155 132–158 129–161 125–167
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 129 119–139 117–142 115–145 111–150
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 98 90–108 88–110 85–113 82–118
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 76–92 74–95 72–97 69–102
Die Linke 69 45 40–52 38–53 0–55 0–59
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 42 36–48 35–49 34–51 31–54

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.7%  
146 0.2% 99.5%  
147 0.2% 99.3%  
148 0.2% 99.0%  
149 0.4% 98.8%  
150 0.7% 98%  
151 1.2% 98%  
152 2% 97%  
153 2% 95%  
154 1.0% 93%  
155 1.0% 92%  
156 2% 91%  
157 4% 89%  
158 3% 86%  
159 4% 82%  
160 3% 78%  
161 2% 75%  
162 3% 73%  
163 5% 71%  
164 6% 66%  
165 8% 60%  
166 5% 52% Median
167 3% 47%  
168 3% 44%  
169 3% 41%  
170 5% 38%  
171 6% 33%  
172 5% 26%  
173 3% 21%  
174 2% 19%  
175 1.2% 17%  
176 2% 16%  
177 2% 13%  
178 3% 11%  
179 2% 8%  
180 0.9% 6%  
181 0.5% 5%  
182 0.5% 5%  
183 0.6% 4%  
184 1.1% 4%  
185 1.2% 3%  
186 0.3% 1.3%  
187 0.1% 1.0%  
188 0.1% 0.9%  
189 0% 0.8%  
190 0.1% 0.8%  
191 0.3% 0.7%  
192 0.1% 0.4%  
193 0% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.7%  
125 0.2% 99.6%  
126 0.3% 99.3%  
127 0.4% 99.0%  
128 0.6% 98.6%  
129 0.6% 98%  
130 1.1% 97%  
131 1.0% 96%  
132 2% 95%  
133 2% 94%  
134 2% 92%  
135 2% 90%  
136 3% 87%  
137 4% 85%  
138 4% 81%  
139 4% 77%  
140 4% 73%  
141 5% 69%  
142 4% 64%  
143 5% 60%  
144 6% 55% Median
145 3% 49%  
146 6% 45%  
147 5% 40%  
148 5% 35%  
149 4% 30%  
150 4% 26%  
151 2% 21%  
152 3% 19%  
153 3% 16%  
154 2% 12%  
155 2% 10%  
156 1.3% 9%  
157 2% 7%  
158 1.3% 6%  
159 1.0% 4%  
160 0.7% 3%  
161 0.7% 3%  
162 0.5% 2%  
163 0.3% 1.5%  
164 0.2% 1.1%  
165 0.2% 0.9%  
166 0.2% 0.8%  
167 0.2% 0.6%  
168 0.1% 0.4%  
169 0.1% 0.3%  
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.6%  
111 0.2% 99.5%  
112 0.4% 99.3%  
113 0.4% 98.8%  
114 0.7% 98%  
115 1.0% 98%  
116 1.1% 97%  
117 2% 96%  
118 2% 94%  
119 2% 92%  
120 2% 89%  
121 3% 87%  
122 3% 84%  
123 4% 81%  
124 4% 77%  
125 5% 73%  
126 5% 68%  
127 5% 63%  
128 6% 58%  
129 5% 52% Median
130 5% 47%  
131 5% 42%  
132 4% 37%  
133 5% 33%  
134 3% 28%  
135 3% 25%  
136 4% 22%  
137 4% 18%  
138 2% 14%  
139 2% 12%  
140 2% 9%  
141 2% 8%  
142 1.4% 6%  
143 1.3% 5%  
144 0.9% 4%  
145 0.8% 3%  
146 0.5% 2%  
147 0.4% 2%  
148 0.3% 1.2%  
149 0.2% 0.8%  
150 0.2% 0.7%  
151 0.2% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
154 0% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.7%  
82 0.1% 99.6%  
83 0.1% 99.5%  
84 0.6% 99.4%  
85 1.3% 98.8%  
86 1.3% 97%  
87 0.9% 96%  
88 0.4% 95%  
89 1.4% 95%  
90 4% 93%  
91 5% 89%  
92 5% 84%  
93 2% 79%  
94 1.5% 77%  
95 6% 76%  
96 8% 70%  
97 11% 62%  
98 5% 51% Median
99 1.4% 47%  
100 2% 45%  
101 7% 43%  
102 8% 36%  
103 7% 28%  
104 3% 21%  
105 1.0% 18%  
106 2% 17%  
107 4% 15%  
108 4% 11%  
109 2% 7%  
110 0.5% 5%  
111 0.3% 5%  
112 0.8% 4%  
113 1.0% 3%  
114 1.0% 2%  
115 0.6% 1.4%  
116 0.2% 0.8%  
117 0.1% 0.6%  
118 0.2% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.4% 99.5%  
70 0.4% 99.1%  
71 0.7% 98.7%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 1.2% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 94%  
76 3% 91%  
77 4% 89%  
78 4% 84%  
79 5% 80%  
80 5% 75%  
81 5% 70%  
82 5% 65%  
83 8% 60%  
84 6% 53% Median
85 7% 47%  
86 5% 40%  
87 6% 35%  
88 5% 29%  
89 4% 24%  
90 4% 20%  
91 3% 16%  
92 3% 12%  
93 3% 10%  
94 2% 7% Last Result
95 1.4% 6%  
96 1.2% 4%  
97 0.8% 3%  
98 0.6% 2%  
99 0.5% 2%  
100 0.2% 1.0%  
101 0.2% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 0% 95%  
8 0% 95%  
9 0% 95%  
10 0% 95%  
11 0% 95%  
12 0% 95%  
13 0% 95%  
14 0% 95%  
15 0% 95%  
16 0% 95%  
17 0% 95%  
18 0% 95%  
19 0% 95%  
20 0% 95%  
21 0% 95%  
22 0% 95%  
23 0% 95%  
24 0% 95%  
25 0% 95%  
26 0% 95%  
27 0% 95%  
28 0% 95%  
29 0% 95%  
30 0% 95%  
31 0% 95%  
32 0% 95%  
33 0% 95%  
34 0% 95%  
35 0% 95%  
36 0% 95%  
37 0% 95%  
38 1.4% 95%  
39 3% 94%  
40 5% 91%  
41 6% 86%  
42 6% 80%  
43 8% 74%  
44 7% 65%  
45 9% 59% Median
46 8% 50%  
47 7% 42%  
48 9% 35%  
49 5% 26%  
50 5% 20%  
51 4% 15%  
52 4% 11%  
53 2% 7%  
54 1.4% 5%  
55 1.1% 4%  
56 0.9% 2%  
57 0.6% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.8%  
32 0.6% 99.4%  
33 0.9% 98.8%  
34 2% 98%  
35 3% 96%  
36 4% 93%  
37 6% 89%  
38 6% 83%  
39 6% 77%  
40 8% 71%  
41 10% 63%  
42 10% 53% Median
43 8% 42%  
44 7% 34%  
45 7% 27%  
46 5% 20% Last Result
47 5% 15%  
48 3% 10%  
49 2% 7%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.3% 3%  
52 0.8% 2%  
53 0.5% 1.2%  
54 0.3% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 481 100% 469–495 466–502 463–514 458–525
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 451 100% 439–465 435–471 432–481 426–493
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 435 100% 423–450 420–456 417–466 411–476
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 391 100% 378–405 375–410 372–418 366–430
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 372 95% 361–385 355–392 353–396 348–410
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 353 41% 339–367 336–371 333–377 327–389
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 337 7% 325–351 321–357 318–362 312–373
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 318 0% 304–331 299–334 291–337 279–343
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 307 0% 294–321 291–325 288–330 282–341
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 292 0% 280–305 276–311 273–315 268–325
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 273 0% 261–287 258–291 255–295 249–304
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 228 0% 216–241 213–245 210–248 205–256
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 174 0% 162–185 154–188 139–191 128–196

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0.1% 99.9%  
455 0.1% 99.8%  
456 0.1% 99.7%  
457 0.1% 99.6%  
458 0.2% 99.5%  
459 0.3% 99.4%  
460 0.2% 99.1%  
461 0.4% 98.8%  
462 0.4% 98%  
463 0.7% 98%  
464 0.8% 97%  
465 0.9% 97%  
466 0.9% 96% Last Result
467 2% 95%  
468 2% 93%  
469 2% 91%  
470 2% 90%  
471 2% 88%  
472 2% 86%  
473 4% 83%  
474 2% 80%  
475 3% 77%  
476 4% 75%  
477 4% 70%  
478 4% 67%  
479 5% 62%  
480 6% 58%  
481 4% 52% Median
482 4% 48%  
483 4% 44%  
484 5% 40%  
485 3% 35%  
486 3% 33%  
487 3% 30%  
488 3% 26%  
489 2% 23%  
490 4% 21%  
491 2% 17%  
492 2% 15%  
493 2% 14%  
494 2% 12%  
495 1.0% 10%  
496 1.1% 9%  
497 1.1% 8%  
498 0.6% 7%  
499 0.6% 6%  
500 0.4% 6%  
501 0.3% 5%  
502 0.2% 5%  
503 0.2% 5%  
504 0.3% 5%  
505 0.4% 4%  
506 0.1% 4%  
507 0.1% 4%  
508 0.2% 4%  
509 0.3% 4%  
510 0.2% 3%  
511 0.1% 3%  
512 0.3% 3%  
513 0.1% 3%  
514 0.3% 3%  
515 0.2% 2%  
516 0.3% 2%  
517 0.3% 2%  
518 0.1% 2%  
519 0.2% 1.4%  
520 0.1% 1.3%  
521 0.2% 1.2%  
522 0.2% 1.0%  
523 0.1% 0.7%  
524 0.1% 0.7%  
525 0.2% 0.6%  
526 0% 0.4%  
527 0% 0.3%  
528 0.1% 0.3%  
529 0.1% 0.3%  
530 0% 0.2%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0.1% 0.1%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0.1%  
536 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.9%  
424 0.1% 99.8%  
425 0.1% 99.7%  
426 0.2% 99.6%  
427 0.2% 99.5%  
428 0.2% 99.3%  
429 0.3% 99.1%  
430 0.4% 98.8%  
431 0.5% 98%  
432 0.6% 98%  
433 0.7% 97%  
434 1.0% 97%  
435 0.8% 96%  
436 0.9% 95%  
437 2% 94%  
438 2% 92%  
439 2% 90%  
440 2% 89%  
441 2% 86%  
442 2% 84%  
443 4% 82%  
444 2% 78%  
445 4% 76%  
446 3% 71%  
447 5% 69%  
448 3% 64%  
449 6% 61%  
450 4% 55% Median
451 3% 51%  
452 4% 47%  
453 4% 44%  
454 5% 40%  
455 3% 35%  
456 4% 32%  
457 2% 28%  
458 4% 26%  
459 2% 22%  
460 3% 20%  
461 2% 17%  
462 2% 15%  
463 2% 13%  
464 1.5% 12%  
465 1.2% 10%  
466 1.0% 9%  
467 1.1% 8%  
468 0.5% 7%  
469 0.8% 6%  
470 0.4% 6%  
471 0.4% 5%  
472 0.3% 5%  
473 0.3% 5%  
474 0.2% 4%  
475 0.2% 4%  
476 0.3% 4%  
477 0.3% 4%  
478 0.2% 3%  
479 0.2% 3%  
480 0.3% 3%  
481 0.3% 3%  
482 0.2% 2%  
483 0.4% 2%  
484 0.2% 2%  
485 0.1% 2%  
486 0.2% 1.4%  
487 0.2% 1.2%  
488 0.1% 1.0%  
489 0.1% 0.9%  
490 0.1% 0.8%  
491 0% 0.8%  
492 0.2% 0.7%  
493 0.1% 0.6%  
494 0% 0.5%  
495 0.1% 0.5%  
496 0% 0.3%  
497 0.1% 0.3%  
498 0.1% 0.2%  
499 0.1% 0.2%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0.1%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.9%  
408 0.1% 99.8%  
409 0.1% 99.8%  
410 0.1% 99.7%  
411 0.2% 99.6%  
412 0.2% 99.4%  
413 0.3% 99.2%  
414 0.3% 99.0%  
415 0.5% 98.7%  
416 0.3% 98%  
417 0.9% 98%  
418 0.6% 97%  
419 1.0% 96%  
420 1.1% 95%  
421 1.2% 94%  
422 2% 93%  
423 2% 92%  
424 2% 90%  
425 2% 87%  
426 3% 86%  
427 2% 83%  
428 4% 81%  
429 2% 77%  
430 4% 74%  
431 4% 70%  
432 4% 66%  
433 4% 62%  
434 3% 58%  
435 6% 56% Median
436 2% 50%  
437 6% 48%  
438 3% 42%  
439 5% 39%  
440 3% 34%  
441 4% 31%  
442 3% 27%  
443 2% 25%  
444 3% 22%  
445 2% 19%  
446 3% 17%  
447 1.4% 14%  
448 2% 13%  
449 1.0% 11%  
450 1.2% 10%  
451 1.0% 9%  
452 0.9% 8%  
453 0.6% 7%  
454 0.7% 6%  
455 0.5% 6%  
456 0.4% 5%  
457 0.4% 5%  
458 0.2% 4%  
459 0.2% 4%  
460 0.3% 4%  
461 0.2% 4%  
462 0.2% 3%  
463 0.2% 3%  
464 0.1% 3%  
465 0.2% 3%  
466 0.3% 3%  
467 0.2% 2%  
468 0.1% 2%  
469 0.4% 2%  
470 0.4% 2%  
471 0.2% 1.4%  
472 0.1% 1.2%  
473 0% 1.1%  
474 0.1% 1.0%  
475 0.4% 1.0%  
476 0.1% 0.6%  
477 0.1% 0.4%  
478 0% 0.4%  
479 0% 0.4% Last Result
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.7%  
365 0.1% 99.6%  
366 0.1% 99.5%  
367 0.3% 99.4%  
368 0.3% 99.1%  
369 0.3% 98.8%  
370 0.5% 98.5%  
371 0.4% 98%  
372 0.7% 98%  
373 0.9% 97%  
374 1.0% 96%  
375 0.9% 95%  
376 1.3% 94%  
377 1.2% 93%  
378 2% 92%  
379 3% 89%  
380 2% 86%  
381 2% 84%  
382 3% 82%  
383 4% 80%  
384 3% 76%  
385 3% 73%  
386 5% 70%  
387 4% 66%  
388 3% 62%  
389 4% 59%  
390 5% 55% Median
391 4% 50%  
392 3% 46%  
393 4% 42%  
394 2% 38%  
395 4% 36%  
396 4% 32%  
397 4% 29%  
398 2% 25%  
399 2% 22%  
400 2% 20%  
401 3% 18%  
402 2% 15%  
403 2% 14%  
404 2% 12%  
405 0.9% 10%  
406 0.9% 9%  
407 1.2% 8%  
408 0.9% 7%  
409 0.7% 6%  
410 0.5% 5%  
411 0.5% 5%  
412 0.4% 4%  
413 0.3% 4%  
414 0.2% 4%  
415 0.2% 3%  
416 0.3% 3%  
417 0.3% 3%  
418 0.3% 3%  
419 0.3% 2%  
420 0.2% 2% Last Result
421 0.3% 2%  
422 0.2% 2%  
423 0.2% 1.3%  
424 0.2% 1.1%  
425 0% 1.0%  
426 0.1% 0.9%  
427 0.1% 0.9%  
428 0.1% 0.8%  
429 0.1% 0.7%  
430 0.1% 0.6%  
431 0.1% 0.5%  
432 0.1% 0.4%  
433 0% 0.3%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0.1% 0.2%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0.1% 99.6%  
347 0% 99.5%  
348 0% 99.5%  
349 0.1% 99.5%  
350 0.2% 99.3%  
351 0.6% 99.1%  
352 0.8% 98.5%  
353 2% 98%  
354 0.9% 96%  
355 0.8% 95% Majority
356 0.3% 94%  
357 0.2% 94%  
358 0.2% 94%  
359 1.1% 93%  
360 2% 92%  
361 5% 90%  
362 5% 86%  
363 5% 81%  
364 5% 76%  
365 2% 71%  
366 0.7% 69%  
367 0.5% 69%  
368 1.0% 68%  
369 2% 67%  
370 5% 65%  
371 7% 60% Median
372 9% 53%  
373 5% 44%  
374 5% 39%  
375 2% 34%  
376 0.6% 32%  
377 0.4% 32%  
378 1.0% 31%  
379 2% 30%  
380 3% 28%  
381 4% 25%  
382 5% 21%  
383 4% 16%  
384 2% 12%  
385 1.2% 10%  
386 0.2% 9%  
387 0.2% 9%  
388 0.3% 9%  
389 0.9% 8%  
390 0.9% 7%  
391 1.4% 7%  
392 0.7% 5%  
393 0.8% 5%  
394 0.5% 4%  
395 0.4% 3%  
396 0.4% 3%  
397 0.1% 2%  
398 0.1% 2%  
399 0.1% 2%  
400 0.1% 2%  
401 0.1% 2%  
402 0.2% 2%  
403 0.4% 2%  
404 0.2% 1.3%  
405 0.4% 1.1%  
406 0.1% 0.7%  
407 0.1% 0.6%  
408 0% 0.6%  
409 0% 0.5%  
410 0% 0.5%  
411 0% 0.5%  
412 0.1% 0.5%  
413 0.1% 0.4%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0.1% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.7%  
327 0.1% 99.6%  
328 0.2% 99.4%  
329 0.2% 99.3%  
330 0.3% 99.1%  
331 0.4% 98.8%  
332 0.4% 98%  
333 0.6% 98%  
334 0.8% 97%  
335 0.6% 97%  
336 1.1% 96%  
337 1.3% 95%  
338 2% 94%  
339 2% 92%  
340 2% 90%  
341 2% 88%  
342 2% 86%  
343 2% 84%  
344 3% 82%  
345 3% 79%  
346 3% 76%  
347 3% 73%  
348 3% 70%  
349 4% 67%  
350 4% 63%  
351 4% 59%  
352 4% 55% Median
353 6% 51%  
354 4% 45%  
355 4% 41% Majority
356 4% 38%  
357 3% 33%  
358 3% 30%  
359 3% 27%  
360 2% 24%  
361 2% 22%  
362 2% 20%  
363 2% 18%  
364 1.4% 15%  
365 2% 14%  
366 2% 12%  
367 1.4% 10%  
368 0.9% 9%  
369 1.0% 8%  
370 1.1% 7%  
371 0.7% 6%  
372 0.6% 5%  
373 0.7% 4%  
374 0.4% 4%  
375 0.4% 3%  
376 0.2% 3%  
377 0.3% 3%  
378 0.4% 2%  
379 0.3% 2%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.1% 1.5%  
382 0.1% 1.3%  
383 0.2% 1.2%  
384 0.1% 1.1%  
385 0.2% 1.0%  
386 0.1% 0.8%  
387 0.1% 0.7%  
388 0.1% 0.6%  
389 0.1% 0.5%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.8%  
311 0.1% 99.7%  
312 0.1% 99.6%  
313 0.2% 99.5%  
314 0.2% 99.3%  
315 0.3% 99.0%  
316 0.3% 98.8%  
317 0.6% 98%  
318 0.6% 98%  
319 0.7% 97%  
320 0.7% 96%  
321 1.1% 96%  
322 1.3% 95%  
323 1.1% 93%  
324 2% 92%  
325 3% 91%  
326 3% 88%  
327 2% 85%  
328 3% 84%  
329 3% 81%  
330 3% 78%  
331 4% 75%  
332 3% 72%  
333 3% 68%  
334 3% 65%  
335 4% 61%  
336 5% 57%  
337 3% 52% Median
338 4% 48%  
339 4% 44%  
340 3% 40%  
341 4% 38%  
342 3% 34%  
343 3% 30%  
344 4% 28%  
345 3% 24%  
346 3% 21%  
347 2% 18%  
348 2% 16%  
349 1.4% 14%  
350 1.5% 13%  
351 1.5% 11%  
352 2% 10%  
353 0.8% 8%  
354 0.7% 7%  
355 0.9% 7% Majority
356 0.6% 6%  
357 0.7% 5%  
358 0.5% 4%  
359 0.4% 4%  
360 0.4% 3%  
361 0.4% 3%  
362 0.3% 3%  
363 0.3% 2%  
364 0.2% 2%  
365 0.1% 2%  
366 0.5% 2%  
367 0.1% 1.3%  
368 0.2% 1.2%  
369 0.1% 0.9%  
370 0% 0.8%  
371 0.1% 0.8%  
372 0.2% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.5%  
374 0.1% 0.4%  
375 0% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.6%  
279 0.1% 99.5%  
280 0.1% 99.4%  
281 0.1% 99.3%  
282 0.1% 99.2%  
283 0.1% 99.1%  
284 0% 99.1%  
285 0.2% 99.0%  
286 0.2% 98.9%  
287 0.2% 98.7%  
288 0.3% 98%  
289 0.2% 98% Last Result
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.3% 98%  
292 0.3% 97%  
293 0.3% 97%  
294 0.2% 97%  
295 0.2% 97%  
296 0.3% 96%  
297 0.4% 96%  
298 0.5% 96%  
299 0.5% 95%  
300 0.7% 95%  
301 0.9% 94%  
302 1.2% 93%  
303 0.9% 92%  
304 0.9% 91%  
305 2% 90%  
306 2% 88%  
307 2% 86%  
308 3% 85%  
309 2% 82%  
310 2% 80%  
311 2% 78%  
312 4% 75%  
313 4% 71%  
314 4% 68%  
315 2% 64%  
316 4% 62%  
317 3% 58%  
318 4% 54% Median
319 5% 50%  
320 4% 45%  
321 3% 41%  
322 4% 38%  
323 5% 34%  
324 3% 30%  
325 3% 27%  
326 4% 24%  
327 3% 20%  
328 2% 18%  
329 2% 16%  
330 3% 14%  
331 2% 11%  
332 1.2% 8%  
333 1.3% 7%  
334 0.9% 6%  
335 1.0% 5%  
336 0.9% 4%  
337 0.7% 3%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.5% 2%  
340 0.3% 1.5%  
341 0.3% 1.2%  
342 0.3% 0.9%  
343 0.1% 0.6%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.2% 99.6%  
283 0.2% 99.4%  
284 0.2% 99.2%  
285 0.3% 99.0%  
286 0.4% 98.7%  
287 0.7% 98%  
288 0.4% 98%  
289 0.8% 97%  
290 1.0% 96%  
291 0.8% 95%  
292 1.2% 95%  
293 2% 93%  
294 2% 91%  
295 2% 90%  
296 2% 88%  
297 3% 86%  
298 3% 84%  
299 3% 81%  
300 4% 78%  
301 3% 74%  
302 4% 71%  
303 4% 67%  
304 5% 63%  
305 3% 58%  
306 4% 54% Median
307 4% 51%  
308 4% 47%  
309 4% 43%  
310 4% 39%  
311 3% 35%  
312 3% 32%  
313 3% 29%  
314 3% 26%  
315 1.5% 23%  
316 5% 21%  
317 1.2% 16%  
318 2% 15%  
319 1.2% 13%  
320 1.3% 11%  
321 2% 10%  
322 1.3% 9%  
323 1.0% 7%  
324 0.8% 6%  
325 0.7% 6%  
326 0.8% 5% Last Result
327 0.6% 4%  
328 0.5% 3%  
329 0.2% 3%  
330 0.5% 3%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 0.2% 1.5%  
335 0.1% 1.3%  
336 0.2% 1.2%  
337 0.1% 1.0%  
338 0.2% 0.9%  
339 0.1% 0.7%  
340 0.1% 0.6%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0.1% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.7%  
268 0.2% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.4%  
270 0.2% 99.2%  
271 0.6% 99.0%  
272 0.6% 98%  
273 0.4% 98%  
274 0.8% 97%  
275 0.9% 96%  
276 1.0% 96%  
277 2% 95%  
278 1.0% 93%  
279 2% 92%  
280 2% 90%  
281 2% 88%  
282 3% 86%  
283 2% 84%  
284 3% 81%  
285 3% 78%  
286 4% 75%  
287 3% 71%  
288 4% 68%  
289 4% 65%  
290 5% 61%  
291 3% 55%  
292 5% 53% Median
293 2% 48%  
294 6% 45%  
295 2% 40%  
296 4% 37%  
297 2% 33%  
298 3% 31%  
299 2% 27%  
300 3% 25%  
301 2% 22%  
302 4% 20%  
303 3% 16%  
304 2% 14%  
305 1.2% 11%  
306 2% 10%  
307 1.1% 8%  
308 0.7% 7%  
309 0.6% 6%  
310 0.6% 6%  
311 0.5% 5%  
312 0.5% 5%  
313 0.9% 4%  
314 0.6% 3%  
315 0.6% 3%  
316 0.5% 2%  
317 0.2% 2%  
318 0.1% 1.4%  
319 0.1% 1.2%  
320 0.1% 1.1%  
321 0.1% 1.1%  
322 0.1% 1.0%  
323 0.1% 1.0%  
324 0.3% 0.9%  
325 0.2% 0.6%  
326 0.1% 0.4%  
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.5%  
251 0.3% 99.3%  
252 0.3% 99.1%  
253 0.5% 98.7%  
254 0.4% 98%  
255 0.9% 98%  
256 0.8% 97%  
257 0.8% 96%  
258 1.2% 95%  
259 2% 94%  
260 1.0% 92%  
261 2% 91%  
262 2% 89%  
263 3% 87%  
264 3% 85%  
265 2% 82%  
266 3% 80%  
267 4% 77%  
268 4% 73%  
269 4% 69%  
270 3% 65%  
271 4% 62%  
272 3% 58%  
273 5% 55% Median
274 5% 50%  
275 4% 45%  
276 3% 41%  
277 4% 38%  
278 5% 35%  
279 3% 30%  
280 3% 27%  
281 3% 24%  
282 2% 20%  
283 3% 18%  
284 2% 16%  
285 2% 14%  
286 2% 12%  
287 1.3% 10%  
288 1.2% 9%  
289 1.1% 8%  
290 1.1% 7%  
291 0.9% 5%  
292 0.7% 5%  
293 0.8% 4%  
294 0.4% 3%  
295 0.3% 3%  
296 0.3% 2%  
297 0.3% 2%  
298 0.3% 2%  
299 0.3% 2%  
300 0.2% 1.3%  
301 0.2% 1.1%  
302 0.2% 0.9%  
303 0.1% 0.7%  
304 0.1% 0.5%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0% 0.3%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
199 0% 100%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0.1% 99.8%  
203 0.1% 99.8%  
204 0.1% 99.7%  
205 0.1% 99.6%  
206 0.3% 99.4%  
207 0.2% 99.1%  
208 0.3% 98.9%  
209 0.8% 98.6%  
210 0.5% 98%  
211 1.1% 97%  
212 0.8% 96%  
213 2% 95%  
214 1.5% 94%  
215 1.1% 92%  
216 3% 91%  
217 2% 88%  
218 3% 87%  
219 2% 83%  
220 4% 81%  
221 3% 78%  
222 3% 75%  
223 5% 72%  
224 3% 66%  
225 7% 64%  
226 4% 57%  
227 2% 54% Median
228 7% 51%  
229 2% 44%  
230 5% 42%  
231 2% 37%  
232 3% 34%  
233 3% 31% Last Result
234 4% 28%  
235 3% 25%  
236 2% 21%  
237 3% 19%  
238 2% 16%  
239 3% 14%  
240 2% 12%  
241 0.8% 10%  
242 2% 9%  
243 0.8% 7%  
244 1.4% 6%  
245 1.0% 5%  
246 1.0% 4%  
247 0.6% 3%  
248 0.4% 3%  
249 0.5% 2%  
250 0.2% 2%  
251 0.3% 2%  
252 0.2% 1.3%  
253 0.1% 1.1%  
254 0.3% 1.0%  
255 0.3% 0.8%  
256 0.1% 0.5%  
257 0.1% 0.4%  
258 0.1% 0.3%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.1% 99.7%  
127 0.1% 99.7%  
128 0.1% 99.6%  
129 0.1% 99.5%  
130 0.1% 99.4%  
131 0.3% 99.3%  
132 0.1% 99.0%  
133 0.3% 98.9%  
134 0.1% 98.6%  
135 0.1% 98.5%  
136 0.2% 98%  
137 0.2% 98%  
138 0.2% 98%  
139 0.2% 98%  
140 0.2% 97%  
141 0.1% 97%  
142 0.4% 97%  
143 0.4% 97%  
144 0.1% 96%  
145 0.2% 96%  
146 0.1% 96%  
147 0.1% 96%  
148 0.1% 96%  
149 0.1% 96%  
150 0.1% 96%  
151 0.2% 96%  
152 0.1% 95%  
153 0.2% 95%  
154 0.2% 95%  
155 0.2% 95%  
156 0.3% 95%  
157 0.4% 94%  
158 0.5% 94%  
159 0.6% 93%  
160 1.0% 93%  
161 1.3% 92%  
162 1.1% 91%  
163 2% 89%  
164 2% 88%  
165 2% 85%  
166 3% 83%  
167 3% 80%  
168 4% 77%  
169 4% 73%  
170 3% 70%  
171 4% 67%  
172 4% 62%  
173 4% 58%  
174 5% 54% Median
175 5% 49%  
176 4% 44%  
177 5% 40%  
178 4% 35%  
179 4% 31%  
180 4% 27%  
181 2% 23%  
182 4% 21%  
183 3% 17%  
184 2% 14%  
185 3% 12%  
186 2% 10%  
187 2% 8%  
188 1.2% 6%  
189 1.2% 5%  
190 0.7% 4%  
191 0.8% 3%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.5% 2%  
194 0.3% 1.3%  
195 0.2% 0.9%  
196 0.2% 0.7%  
197 0.1% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations