Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 21–31 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.2–23.9% 19.7–24.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.5–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.5–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 167 158–175 156–178 153–180 149–185
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 152 143–160 141–162 139–165 135–169
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 136 128–145 126–147 124–149 120–153
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 77–90 75–92 74–94 70–98
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 76 70–82 68–84 66–86 63–90
Die Linke 69 53 48–59 46–61 45–62 42–65
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 37–46 36–48 35–49 33–52

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.2% 99.7%  
150 0.4% 99.4%  
151 0.4% 99.1%  
152 0.4% 98.7%  
153 0.8% 98%  
154 0.8% 97%  
155 1.2% 97%  
156 2% 95%  
157 2% 94%  
158 2% 92%  
159 3% 89%  
160 4% 86%  
161 5% 83%  
162 4% 78%  
163 5% 74%  
164 6% 69%  
165 7% 63%  
166 5% 56%  
167 7% 51% Median
168 4% 44%  
169 6% 40%  
170 5% 34%  
171 5% 29%  
172 5% 24%  
173 4% 19%  
174 3% 15%  
175 3% 12%  
176 2% 10%  
177 2% 8%  
178 2% 6%  
179 0.7% 4%  
180 1.1% 3%  
181 0.6% 2%  
182 0.5% 2%  
183 0.4% 1.3%  
184 0.3% 0.9%  
185 0.2% 0.6%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.8%  
134 0.2% 99.8%  
135 0.3% 99.6%  
136 0.3% 99.3%  
137 0.5% 99.0%  
138 0.8% 98%  
139 0.9% 98%  
140 1.2% 97%  
141 2% 96%  
142 2% 94%  
143 2% 92%  
144 3% 90%  
145 4% 87%  
146 5% 83%  
147 5% 78%  
148 4% 73%  
149 6% 69%  
150 7% 63%  
151 5% 56%  
152 6% 51% Median
153 6% 44%  
154 5% 38%  
155 5% 33%  
156 6% 28%  
157 3% 21%  
158 3% 18%  
159 3% 15%  
160 3% 11%  
161 2% 9%  
162 2% 7%  
163 1.3% 5%  
164 1.0% 4%  
165 0.8% 3%  
166 0.6% 2%  
167 0.3% 1.3%  
168 0.3% 0.9%  
169 0.2% 0.6%  
170 0.1% 0.4%  
171 0.1% 0.3%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.7%  
121 0.3% 99.5%  
122 0.4% 99.2%  
123 0.7% 98.7%  
124 0.9% 98%  
125 1.2% 97%  
126 2% 96%  
127 2% 94%  
128 3% 92%  
129 3% 89%  
130 4% 86%  
131 5% 82%  
132 4% 77%  
133 6% 73%  
134 6% 67%  
135 6% 61%  
136 6% 56% Median
137 7% 50%  
138 6% 43%  
139 6% 37%  
140 5% 31%  
141 5% 26%  
142 4% 21%  
143 3% 17%  
144 3% 14%  
145 3% 10%  
146 2% 8%  
147 1.1% 6%  
148 1.3% 5%  
149 1.0% 3%  
150 0.9% 2%  
151 0.4% 2%  
152 0.4% 1.1%  
153 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
154 0.2% 0.5%  
155 0.1% 0.3%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.3% 99.5%  
72 0.8% 99.2%  
73 0.8% 98%  
74 1.4% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 2% 94%  
77 4% 91%  
78 4% 87%  
79 5% 83%  
80 7% 78%  
81 7% 71%  
82 8% 64%  
83 8% 56% Median
84 6% 48%  
85 8% 42%  
86 6% 34%  
87 5% 28%  
88 6% 23%  
89 3% 17%  
90 4% 13%  
91 2% 9%  
92 2% 7%  
93 2% 5%  
94 0.9% 3% Last Result
95 0.9% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.3%  
97 0.3% 0.8%  
98 0.2% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 0.3% 99.4%  
65 0.6% 99.1%  
66 1.2% 98.5%  
67 2% 97%  
68 2% 96%  
69 3% 93%  
70 4% 90%  
71 6% 87%  
72 6% 81%  
73 6% 75%  
74 9% 69%  
75 8% 60%  
76 8% 52% Median
77 7% 44%  
78 7% 37%  
79 7% 30%  
80 5% 23% Last Result
81 5% 18%  
82 4% 14%  
83 2% 9%  
84 2% 7%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.0% 3%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.3%  
89 0.3% 0.8%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.1% 99.5%  
44 0.8% 99.4%  
45 3% 98.6%  
46 1.0% 96%  
47 1.1% 95%  
48 8% 94%  
49 6% 86%  
50 2% 80%  
51 10% 78%  
52 17% 68%  
53 3% 51% Median
54 5% 47%  
55 16% 42%  
56 5% 27%  
57 2% 22%  
58 8% 20%  
59 6% 12%  
60 0.7% 6%  
61 2% 5%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.4% 2%  
64 0.2% 1.2%  
65 0.7% 1.0%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.2% 99.8%  
33 0.6% 99.6%  
34 1.0% 99.0%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96%  
37 4% 93%  
38 8% 89%  
39 10% 81%  
40 13% 71%  
41 11% 58% Median
42 11% 47%  
43 10% 36%  
44 7% 26%  
45 6% 18%  
46 5% 12% Last Result
47 3% 8%  
48 2% 5%  
49 1.3% 3%  
50 0.9% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.3%  
52 0.3% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 496 100% 487–506 484–509 482–511 477–515
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 436 100% 426–446 423–449 420–451 415–456
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 421 100% 411–431 407–433 405–436 400–441
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 368 95% 357–378 355–381 352–384 347–389
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 364 88% 353–375 351–377 348–380 343–385
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 360 74% 350–370 347–373 344–376 339–381
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 344 11% 334–355 331–358 329–361 324–366
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 341 5% 331–352 328–354 325–357 320–362
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 292 0% 281–301 279–305 276–308 271–313
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 288 0% 278–298 275–301 272–304 267–309
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 284 0% 274–295 271–297 268–300 264–305
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 212 0% 203–222 201–224 198–227 194–232
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 190 0% 180–199 178–201 175–204 171–209

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 99.9%  
473 0.1% 99.9%  
474 0.1% 99.9%  
475 0.1% 99.8%  
476 0.1% 99.7%  
477 0.2% 99.6%  
478 0.3% 99.4%  
479 0.3% 99.0%  
480 0.6% 98.7%  
481 0.5% 98%  
482 1.0% 98%  
483 0.7% 97%  
484 2% 96%  
485 2% 94%  
486 2% 93%  
487 2% 90%  
488 3% 88%  
489 3% 85%  
490 5% 82%  
491 4% 78%  
492 5% 74%  
493 4% 69%  
494 6% 65%  
495 5% 59%  
496 5% 54% Median
497 5% 49%  
498 6% 44%  
499 6% 39%  
500 4% 33%  
501 6% 28%  
502 3% 23%  
503 4% 20%  
504 2% 16%  
505 3% 14%  
506 2% 10%  
507 2% 8%  
508 1.2% 6%  
509 1.3% 5%  
510 1.2% 4%  
511 0.8% 3%  
512 0.4% 2%  
513 0.4% 1.4%  
514 0.3% 1.0%  
515 0.2% 0.7%  
516 0.1% 0.4%  
517 0.1% 0.3%  
518 0.1% 0.2%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0.1% 99.9%  
413 0.1% 99.8%  
414 0.1% 99.8%  
415 0.2% 99.7%  
416 0.3% 99.5%  
417 0.3% 99.2%  
418 0.5% 98.9%  
419 0.6% 98%  
420 0.9% 98%  
421 0.7% 97%  
422 0.9% 96%  
423 2% 95%  
424 1.4% 94%  
425 2% 92%  
426 3% 91%  
427 3% 88%  
428 3% 85%  
429 4% 82%  
430 4% 78%  
431 3% 74%  
432 5% 71%  
433 4% 66%  
434 5% 61%  
435 5% 56%  
436 5% 51% Median
437 3% 46%  
438 6% 43%  
439 4% 37%  
440 5% 32%  
441 4% 27%  
442 3% 23%  
443 4% 20%  
444 3% 16%  
445 3% 13%  
446 2% 10%  
447 1.2% 8%  
448 1.4% 7%  
449 2% 6%  
450 0.9% 4%  
451 0.8% 3%  
452 0.7% 2%  
453 0.4% 2%  
454 0.4% 1.2%  
455 0.1% 0.8%  
456 0.2% 0.6%  
457 0.1% 0.4%  
458 0.1% 0.3%  
459 0.1% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0.1% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.8%  
399 0.1% 99.7%  
400 0.1% 99.5%  
401 0.3% 99.4%  
402 0.4% 99.1%  
403 0.6% 98.7%  
404 0.4% 98%  
405 0.4% 98%  
406 0.8% 97%  
407 2% 97%  
408 2% 95%  
409 1.1% 93%  
410 1.1% 92%  
411 2% 91%  
412 4% 88%  
413 4% 84%  
414 3% 80%  
415 2% 76%  
416 4% 74%  
417 6% 70%  
418 6% 64%  
419 4% 58%  
420 2% 54% Median
421 4% 52%  
422 5% 48%  
423 9% 43%  
424 3% 34%  
425 3% 31%  
426 3% 28%  
427 6% 25%  
428 4% 19%  
429 3% 15%  
430 2% 12%  
431 1.3% 10%  
432 2% 9%  
433 2% 7%  
434 1.2% 5%  
435 0.6% 4%  
436 0.7% 3%  
437 0.5% 2%  
438 0.7% 2%  
439 0.4% 1.2%  
440 0.2% 0.8%  
441 0.1% 0.6%  
442 0.2% 0.5%  
443 0.1% 0.3%  
444 0.1% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.2% 99.5%  
348 0.3% 99.3%  
349 0.3% 99.1%  
350 0.5% 98.8%  
351 0.6% 98%  
352 0.8% 98%  
353 0.8% 97%  
354 0.8% 96%  
355 2% 95% Majority
356 2% 93%  
357 2% 92%  
358 2% 89%  
359 3% 87%  
360 3% 85%  
361 4% 81%  
362 4% 78%  
363 4% 73%  
364 5% 70%  
365 5% 65%  
366 4% 60%  
367 5% 56% Median
368 6% 51%  
369 5% 45%  
370 4% 40%  
371 5% 36%  
372 4% 31%  
373 5% 27%  
374 3% 22%  
375 2% 19%  
376 3% 17%  
377 2% 14%  
378 3% 12%  
379 2% 9%  
380 1.5% 7%  
381 2% 6%  
382 0.9% 4%  
383 0.8% 3%  
384 0.7% 3%  
385 0.4% 2%  
386 0.5% 2%  
387 0.3% 1.0%  
388 0.2% 0.7%  
389 0.2% 0.5%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.9%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0.2% 99.7%  
343 0.2% 99.5%  
344 0.2% 99.4%  
345 0.3% 99.2%  
346 0.4% 98.8%  
347 0.6% 98%  
348 0.7% 98%  
349 0.7% 97%  
350 1.2% 96%  
351 1.4% 95%  
352 2% 94%  
353 2% 92%  
354 2% 90%  
355 3% 88% Majority
356 2% 85%  
357 3% 83%  
358 4% 79%  
359 4% 75%  
360 4% 71%  
361 6% 67%  
362 2% 61%  
363 8% 59%  
364 3% 51% Median
365 6% 48%  
366 4% 42%  
367 6% 39%  
368 3% 33%  
369 5% 29%  
370 4% 24%  
371 3% 20%  
372 3% 17%  
373 2% 14%  
374 2% 12%  
375 2% 10%  
376 1.5% 8%  
377 2% 7%  
378 1.3% 5%  
379 0.7% 3%  
380 0.8% 3%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.6% 2%  
383 0.2% 1.1%  
384 0.3% 0.9%  
385 0.1% 0.6%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0.2% 99.6%  
340 0.3% 99.4%  
341 0.4% 99.1%  
342 0.3% 98.8%  
343 0.5% 98%  
344 0.7% 98%  
345 0.9% 97%  
346 1.0% 96%  
347 2% 95%  
348 1.5% 93%  
349 2% 92%  
350 2% 90%  
351 3% 88%  
352 3% 85%  
353 4% 82%  
354 4% 78%  
355 3% 74% Majority
356 5% 71%  
357 5% 66%  
358 6% 61%  
359 4% 55%  
360 5% 51% Median
361 3% 46%  
362 4% 42%  
363 5% 38%  
364 5% 33%  
365 5% 28%  
366 2% 23%  
367 4% 20%  
368 3% 17%  
369 3% 14%  
370 2% 11%  
371 2% 9%  
372 1.3% 7%  
373 2% 6%  
374 1.1% 5%  
375 0.8% 3%  
376 0.7% 3%  
377 0.5% 2%  
378 0.5% 1.5%  
379 0.3% 1.0%  
380 0.2% 0.7%  
381 0.1% 0.5%  
382 0.1% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.2% 99.7%  
324 0.2% 99.5%  
325 0.3% 99.3%  
326 0.5% 99.0%  
327 0.4% 98.5%  
328 0.6% 98%  
329 0.7% 98%  
330 0.8% 97%  
331 1.2% 96%  
332 1.4% 95%  
333 1.3% 93%  
334 2% 92%  
335 3% 90%  
336 3% 87%  
337 3% 84%  
338 3% 80%  
339 6% 78%  
340 4% 72%  
341 4% 68%  
342 4% 64%  
343 4% 60%  
344 6% 56% Median
345 3% 50%  
346 3% 46%  
347 6% 43%  
348 4% 37%  
349 5% 33%  
350 4% 28%  
351 4% 23%  
352 3% 19%  
353 4% 16%  
354 2% 13%  
355 2% 11% Majority
356 2% 9%  
357 2% 7%  
358 1.1% 6%  
359 1.3% 5%  
360 0.8% 3%  
361 0.6% 3%  
362 0.6% 2%  
363 0.4% 1.4%  
364 0.2% 1.0%  
365 0.2% 0.8%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.7%  
320 0.2% 99.6%  
321 0.2% 99.5%  
322 0.3% 99.3%  
323 0.5% 99.0%  
324 0.4% 98%  
325 0.7% 98%  
326 0.8% 97%  
327 0.9% 97%  
328 2% 96%  
329 1.5% 94%  
330 2% 93%  
331 3% 91%  
332 2% 88%  
333 3% 86%  
334 2% 83%  
335 3% 81%  
336 5% 78%  
337 4% 73%  
338 5% 69%  
339 4% 64%  
340 5% 60%  
341 6% 55% Median
342 5% 49%  
343 4% 44%  
344 5% 40%  
345 5% 35%  
346 4% 30%  
347 4% 27%  
348 4% 22%  
349 3% 19%  
350 3% 15%  
351 2% 13%  
352 2% 11%  
353 2% 8%  
354 2% 7%  
355 0.8% 5% Majority
356 0.8% 4%  
357 0.8% 3%  
358 0.6% 2%  
359 0.5% 2%  
360 0.3% 1.2%  
361 0.3% 0.9%  
362 0.2% 0.7%  
363 0.1% 0.5%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0.1% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.7%  
271 0.2% 99.7%  
272 0.2% 99.5%  
273 0.4% 99.3%  
274 0.5% 98.9%  
275 0.7% 98%  
276 0.5% 98%  
277 0.5% 97%  
278 1.1% 97%  
279 1.3% 96%  
280 3% 94%  
281 2% 91%  
282 3% 89%  
283 2% 87%  
284 2% 85%  
285 5% 83%  
286 3% 79%  
287 7% 76%  
288 5% 68%  
289 3% 63%  
290 3% 59%  
291 5% 57% Median
292 3% 52%  
293 8% 49%  
294 6% 41%  
295 6% 35%  
296 3% 29%  
297 2% 26%  
298 3% 25%  
299 6% 22%  
300 3% 16%  
301 4% 14%  
302 1.4% 10%  
303 1.2% 9%  
304 2% 7%  
305 0.9% 6%  
306 1.5% 5%  
307 0.8% 3%  
308 0.9% 3%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.2% 1.3%  
311 0.3% 1.1%  
312 0.2% 0.8%  
313 0.2% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0.1% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0.2% 99.7%  
268 0.2% 99.5%  
269 0.3% 99.3%  
270 0.4% 99.0%  
271 0.6% 98.6%  
272 0.6% 98%  
273 1.2% 97%  
274 1.0% 96%  
275 1.0% 95%  
276 2% 94%  
277 2% 92%  
278 2% 91%  
279 3% 89%  
280 2% 86%  
281 4% 84%  
282 4% 80%  
283 3% 76%  
284 5% 73%  
285 4% 68%  
286 4% 64%  
287 5% 59%  
288 6% 54% Median
289 6% 48%  
290 5% 42%  
291 4% 37%  
292 6% 33%  
293 3% 27%  
294 4% 24%  
295 4% 20%  
296 2% 16%  
297 3% 14%  
298 2% 11%  
299 2% 9%  
300 1.2% 7%  
301 1.3% 6%  
302 1.1% 5%  
303 0.9% 4%  
304 0.6% 3%  
305 0.6% 2%  
306 0.5% 2%  
307 0.2% 1.1%  
308 0.2% 0.8%  
309 0.2% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.4%  
311 0.1% 0.3%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0.1% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.2% 99.7%  
264 0.2% 99.5%  
265 0.3% 99.3%  
266 0.4% 99.0%  
267 0.6% 98.6%  
268 0.8% 98%  
269 0.7% 97%  
270 0.7% 97%  
271 1.1% 96%  
272 1.3% 95%  
273 2% 93%  
274 3% 91%  
275 2% 89%  
276 3% 86%  
277 4% 84%  
278 4% 80%  
279 3% 76%  
280 5% 73%  
281 5% 68%  
282 3% 63%  
283 6% 59%  
284 5% 53% Median
285 6% 48%  
286 5% 42%  
287 4% 37%  
288 5% 33%  
289 3% 28%  
290 6% 25%  
291 2% 19%  
292 2% 17%  
293 2% 15%  
294 2% 12%  
295 2% 10%  
296 2% 8%  
297 1.4% 6%  
298 0.8% 5%  
299 1.0% 4%  
300 0.9% 3%  
301 0.6% 2%  
302 0.3% 1.4%  
303 0.3% 1.1%  
304 0.2% 0.8%  
305 0.2% 0.6%  
306 0.2% 0.5%  
307 0.1% 0.3%  
308 0.1% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.8%  
193 0.1% 99.7%  
194 0.3% 99.6%  
195 0.5% 99.3%  
196 0.3% 98.8%  
197 0.7% 98.6%  
198 1.2% 98%  
199 0.6% 97%  
200 1.1% 96%  
201 3% 95%  
202 1.5% 92%  
203 1.3% 91%  
204 5% 90%  
205 3% 85%  
206 2% 82%  
207 8% 80%  
208 4% 72%  
209 2% 69%  
210 5% 66%  
211 9% 61%  
212 3% 53% Median
213 4% 50%  
214 9% 45%  
215 3% 36%  
216 2% 33%  
217 7% 30%  
218 4% 23%  
219 1.2% 20%  
220 5% 19%  
221 3% 14%  
222 1.2% 10%  
223 2% 9%  
224 2% 7%  
225 0.6% 4%  
226 0.9% 4%  
227 0.9% 3%  
228 0.5% 2%  
229 0.3% 2%  
230 0.5% 1.2%  
231 0.2% 0.7%  
232 0.1% 0.5%  
233 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
234 0.1% 0.3%  
235 0% 0.2%  
236 0.1% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0.1% 99.9%  
170 0.2% 99.8%  
171 0.2% 99.6%  
172 0.2% 99.4%  
173 0.3% 99.3%  
174 0.6% 99.0%  
175 1.2% 98%  
176 0.8% 97%  
177 0.5% 96%  
178 1.5% 96%  
179 2% 94%  
180 3% 93%  
181 3% 89%  
182 1.2% 86%  
183 4% 85%  
184 4% 81%  
185 7% 77%  
186 5% 71%  
187 3% 66%  
188 3% 63%  
189 10% 60% Median
190 7% 50%  
191 3% 43%  
192 4% 40%  
193 3% 36%  
194 7% 33%  
195 7% 26%  
196 3% 19%  
197 2% 17%  
198 2% 15%  
199 3% 12%  
200 3% 9%  
201 1.4% 6%  
202 0.6% 5%  
203 1.3% 4%  
204 1.0% 3%  
205 0.6% 2%  
206 0.5% 2%  
207 0.1% 1.0%  
208 0.3% 0.9%  
209 0.2% 0.6%  
210 0.2% 0.4%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations