Opinion Poll by Forsa, 27 July–2 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.2% 20.0–22.4% 19.6–22.8% 19.4–23.1% 18.8–23.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.8–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.2–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.9–17.1% 14.6–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 12.0–14.1% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.1–15.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.8% 4.3–5.5% 4.1–5.7% 4.0–5.9% 3.7–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 165 154–173 152–176 150–179 146–186
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 155 146–164 143–167 141–169 137–175
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 126 117–134 113–136 110–137 108–143
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 101 93–109 91–111 89–113 86–118
Alternative für Deutschland 94 78 71–85 69–87 68–89 65–93
Die Linke 69 47 42–53 40–54 39–56 0–59
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 36–46 35–48 34–49 32–52

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.7%  
146 0.3% 99.6%  
147 0.3% 99.3%  
148 0.7% 99.0%  
149 0.7% 98%  
150 1.1% 98%  
151 1.3% 96%  
152 1.4% 95%  
153 2% 94%  
154 2% 92%  
155 2% 90%  
156 3% 87%  
157 3% 85%  
158 3% 82%  
159 3% 79%  
160 5% 75%  
161 4% 71%  
162 4% 67%  
163 6% 62%  
164 6% 57%  
165 5% 50% Median
166 7% 45%  
167 6% 38%  
168 6% 32%  
169 5% 26%  
170 4% 21%  
171 4% 17%  
172 3% 13%  
173 2% 10%  
174 2% 8%  
175 1.3% 6%  
176 1.0% 5%  
177 0.7% 4%  
178 0.7% 3%  
179 0.5% 3%  
180 0.3% 2%  
181 0.4% 2%  
182 0.3% 1.5%  
183 0.2% 1.2%  
184 0.3% 0.9%  
185 0.2% 0.7%  
186 0.1% 0.5%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.8%  
136 0.2% 99.8%  
137 0.2% 99.6%  
138 0.3% 99.4%  
139 0.7% 99.1%  
140 0.5% 98%  
141 0.6% 98%  
142 1.2% 97%  
143 1.2% 96%  
144 1.2% 95%  
145 3% 94%  
146 2% 91%  
147 3% 89%  
148 4% 86%  
149 2% 81%  
150 4% 79%  
151 5% 74%  
152 6% 70%  
153 7% 64%  
154 6% 57%  
155 6% 52% Median
156 4% 45%  
157 4% 41%  
158 6% 37%  
159 5% 31%  
160 6% 26%  
161 4% 20%  
162 3% 16%  
163 2% 14%  
164 2% 11%  
165 2% 9%  
166 2% 7%  
167 1.0% 5%  
168 1.2% 4%  
169 0.6% 3%  
170 0.6% 2%  
171 0.5% 2%  
172 0.3% 1.3%  
173 0.3% 1.1%  
174 0.3% 0.8%  
175 0.1% 0.5%  
176 0.1% 0.4%  
177 0.1% 0.3%  
178 0% 0.2%  
179 0% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.5% 99.8%  
109 0.5% 99.4%  
110 2% 98.8%  
111 0.8% 97%  
112 1.0% 96%  
113 0.2% 95%  
114 0.1% 95%  
115 0.5% 95%  
116 2% 94%  
117 6% 93%  
118 7% 86%  
119 13% 79%  
120 4% 66%  
121 3% 62%  
122 0.4% 58%  
123 0.5% 58%  
124 2% 57%  
125 4% 56%  
126 13% 51% Median
127 9% 39%  
128 13% 30%  
129 3% 17%  
130 2% 14%  
131 0.2% 12%  
132 0.4% 12%  
133 1.2% 12%  
134 2% 11%  
135 4% 9%  
136 2% 5%  
137 2% 3%  
138 0.3% 1.3%  
139 0.1% 1.0%  
140 0% 0.9%  
141 0.1% 0.9%  
142 0.2% 0.8%  
143 0.2% 0.6%  
144 0.2% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.3% 99.6%  
87 0.4% 99.4%  
88 0.6% 99.0%  
89 1.0% 98%  
90 1.4% 97%  
91 2% 96%  
92 2% 94%  
93 3% 92%  
94 3% 90%  
95 5% 86%  
96 7% 82%  
97 6% 75%  
98 6% 69%  
99 6% 64%  
100 7% 57%  
101 6% 51% Median
102 6% 44%  
103 6% 38%  
104 6% 32%  
105 4% 26%  
106 6% 22%  
107 2% 17%  
108 4% 14%  
109 2% 10%  
110 2% 8%  
111 2% 6%  
112 0.9% 4%  
113 1.3% 3%  
114 0.5% 2%  
115 0.5% 2%  
116 0.4% 1.0%  
117 0.1% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 0.6% 99.1%  
67 0.9% 98.5%  
68 1.4% 98%  
69 2% 96%  
70 3% 94%  
71 3% 91%  
72 4% 88%  
73 4% 84%  
74 7% 79%  
75 6% 72%  
76 6% 66%  
77 6% 60%  
78 8% 54% Median
79 8% 45%  
80 6% 38%  
81 6% 31%  
82 4% 25%  
83 6% 21%  
84 3% 15%  
85 4% 12%  
86 2% 8%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.4% 4%  
89 1.1% 3%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.3% 1.2%  
92 0.4% 0.9%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0% 98%  
38 0% 98%  
39 1.2% 98%  
40 2% 97%  
41 4% 95%  
42 5% 90%  
43 8% 85%  
44 7% 77%  
45 9% 69%  
46 9% 60%  
47 9% 51% Median
48 9% 42%  
49 7% 33%  
50 7% 26%  
51 5% 19%  
52 4% 14%  
53 3% 10%  
54 2% 7%  
55 2% 5%  
56 1.1% 3%  
57 0.9% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.5% 99.6%  
33 1.2% 99.2%  
34 3% 98%  
35 3% 95%  
36 4% 92%  
37 6% 88%  
38 9% 82%  
39 10% 73%  
40 9% 62%  
41 8% 53% Median
42 9% 45%  
43 11% 35%  
44 8% 24%  
45 4% 16%  
46 3% 12% Last Result
47 3% 8%  
48 2% 5%  
49 1.2% 3%  
50 0.7% 2%  
51 0.4% 1.0%  
52 0.3% 0.6%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 484 100% 473–494 470–498 468–503 463–524
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 460 100% 450–471 447–476 445–480 439–498
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 430 100% 419–441 416–444 413–449 408–466
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 384 100% 373–395 369–398 366–403 361–417
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 379 99.8% 369–390 366–395 363–399 358–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 360 73% 349–371 346–375 343–379 337–392
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 330 1.0% 317–339 314–343 312–347 307–360
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 325 0% 314–336 311–340 306–343 292–348
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 306 0% 295–317 291–321 290–324 284–334
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 284 0% 271–293 269–297 266–300 261–311
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 279 0% 268–290 265–294 262–297 257–306
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 225 0% 215–236 212–239 209–242 204–249
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 171 0% 161–180 158–183 153–185 127–190

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
457 0% 100%  
458 0% 99.9%  
459 0% 99.9%  
460 0.1% 99.9%  
461 0.1% 99.8%  
462 0.1% 99.7%  
463 0.2% 99.5%  
464 0.2% 99.4%  
465 0.4% 99.2%  
466 0.5% 98.7% Last Result
467 0.5% 98%  
468 1.0% 98%  
469 0.7% 97%  
470 1.2% 96%  
471 1.2% 95%  
472 2% 94%  
473 3% 92%  
474 2% 89%  
475 3% 88%  
476 3% 84%  
477 3% 81%  
478 4% 78%  
479 4% 74%  
480 4% 71%  
481 5% 67%  
482 5% 62%  
483 5% 57%  
484 6% 52%  
485 4% 46%  
486 6% 43%  
487 4% 37% Median
488 4% 33%  
489 5% 29%  
490 4% 24%  
491 4% 20%  
492 2% 16%  
493 3% 14%  
494 2% 11%  
495 1.5% 9%  
496 2% 8%  
497 1.2% 6%  
498 0.9% 5%  
499 0.7% 4%  
500 0.5% 4%  
501 0.4% 3%  
502 0.2% 3%  
503 0.2% 3%  
504 0.1% 2%  
505 0.1% 2%  
506 0.1% 2%  
507 0.1% 2%  
508 0.1% 2%  
509 0% 2%  
510 0.1% 2%  
511 0.1% 2%  
512 0.2% 2%  
513 0% 1.5%  
514 0.2% 1.4%  
515 0% 1.2%  
516 0.1% 1.2%  
517 0.1% 1.1%  
518 0.1% 1.0%  
519 0.1% 0.9%  
520 0% 0.8%  
521 0.2% 0.8%  
522 0.1% 0.6%  
523 0.1% 0.6%  
524 0.1% 0.5%  
525 0% 0.4%  
526 0% 0.4%  
527 0% 0.3%  
528 0.1% 0.3%  
529 0% 0.2%  
530 0% 0.1%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 99.9%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0.1% 99.9%  
437 0.1% 99.8%  
438 0.1% 99.7%  
439 0.2% 99.6%  
440 0.2% 99.4%  
441 0.3% 99.2%  
442 0.4% 98.9%  
443 0.5% 98.6%  
444 0.6% 98%  
445 1.1% 98%  
446 1.0% 96%  
447 1.3% 95%  
448 1.1% 94%  
449 2% 93%  
450 3% 91%  
451 3% 88%  
452 2% 85%  
453 3% 84%  
454 3% 81%  
455 4% 78%  
456 4% 73%  
457 4% 69%  
458 7% 65%  
459 6% 58%  
460 3% 53%  
461 5% 50%  
462 5% 45% Median
463 5% 40%  
464 3% 35%  
465 3% 32%  
466 4% 29%  
467 4% 25%  
468 4% 21%  
469 1.4% 17%  
470 4% 16%  
471 2% 12%  
472 1.4% 10%  
473 1.2% 8%  
474 1.1% 7%  
475 1.0% 6%  
476 0.9% 5%  
477 0.6% 4%  
478 0.6% 4%  
479 0.3% 3%  
480 0.2% 3%  
481 0.1% 2%  
482 0.1% 2%  
483 0.2% 2%  
484 0.1% 2%  
485 0% 2%  
486 0.1% 2%  
487 0.1% 2%  
488 0.3% 2%  
489 0.1% 1.3%  
490 0% 1.2%  
491 0% 1.2%  
492 0.1% 1.2%  
493 0.1% 1.0%  
494 0.1% 0.9%  
495 0.1% 0.8%  
496 0% 0.8%  
497 0.1% 0.7%  
498 0.1% 0.6%  
499 0.1% 0.5%  
500 0.1% 0.4%  
501 0.1% 0.3%  
502 0% 0.3%  
503 0% 0.3%  
504 0.1% 0.2%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0.1% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.8%  
407 0.1% 99.7%  
408 0.1% 99.6%  
409 0.3% 99.4%  
410 0.3% 99.1%  
411 0.5% 98.8%  
412 0.4% 98%  
413 0.9% 98%  
414 0.7% 97%  
415 1.2% 96%  
416 1.1% 95%  
417 1.4% 94%  
418 2% 93%  
419 2% 90%  
420 3% 89%  
421 3% 86%  
422 3% 83%  
423 4% 80%  
424 3% 76%  
425 3% 73%  
426 6% 70%  
427 3% 65%  
428 4% 62%  
429 6% 57%  
430 6% 51%  
431 4% 45%  
432 4% 41%  
433 5% 37% Median
434 4% 32%  
435 4% 28%  
436 3% 24%  
437 2% 21%  
438 3% 19%  
439 2% 15%  
440 2% 13%  
441 2% 11%  
442 0.8% 8%  
443 1.3% 7%  
444 1.1% 6%  
445 0.7% 5%  
446 0.7% 4%  
447 0.3% 3%  
448 0.4% 3%  
449 0.3% 3%  
450 0.2% 2%  
451 0.2% 2%  
452 0.1% 2%  
453 0.1% 2%  
454 0.1% 2%  
455 0.2% 2%  
456 0.1% 1.4%  
457 0.1% 1.3%  
458 0.1% 1.2%  
459 0.1% 1.1%  
460 0.1% 1.0%  
461 0.1% 0.9%  
462 0.1% 0.8%  
463 0.1% 0.7%  
464 0.1% 0.6%  
465 0% 0.6%  
466 0.1% 0.5%  
467 0.1% 0.5%  
468 0.1% 0.4%  
469 0% 0.3%  
470 0.1% 0.3%  
471 0.1% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.7%  
361 0.1% 99.6%  
362 0.2% 99.5%  
363 0.3% 99.3%  
364 0.4% 99.1%  
365 0.5% 98.7%  
366 0.7% 98%  
367 0.7% 97%  
368 0.7% 97%  
369 1.1% 96%  
370 2% 95%  
371 2% 93%  
372 2% 92%  
373 2% 90%  
374 2% 88%  
375 3% 86%  
376 3% 83%  
377 4% 80%  
378 5% 77%  
379 3% 72%  
380 5% 69%  
381 4% 64%  
382 3% 59%  
383 5% 56%  
384 4% 51%  
385 6% 47% Median
386 5% 41%  
387 4% 37%  
388 5% 32%  
389 4% 27%  
390 2% 23%  
391 3% 21%  
392 3% 18%  
393 2% 15%  
394 3% 13%  
395 1.3% 10%  
396 2% 9%  
397 2% 8%  
398 1.0% 6%  
399 0.7% 5%  
400 0.5% 4%  
401 0.5% 4%  
402 0.4% 3%  
403 0.3% 3%  
404 0.2% 2%  
405 0.3% 2%  
406 0.3% 2%  
407 0.2% 2%  
408 0.2% 1.4%  
409 0.1% 1.3%  
410 0.1% 1.2%  
411 0.2% 1.1%  
412 0.1% 0.9%  
413 0.1% 0.8%  
414 0.1% 0.7%  
415 0% 0.6%  
416 0.1% 0.6%  
417 0.1% 0.5%  
418 0% 0.4%  
419 0% 0.4%  
420 0% 0.3% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0.2% 99.6%  
359 0.3% 99.4%  
360 0.4% 99.1%  
361 0.5% 98.7%  
362 0.5% 98%  
363 0.8% 98%  
364 0.4% 97%  
365 1.1% 96%  
366 1.0% 95%  
367 2% 94%  
368 2% 92%  
369 3% 90%  
370 3% 87%  
371 2% 84%  
372 4% 82%  
373 2% 78%  
374 4% 77%  
375 3% 73%  
376 4% 70%  
377 6% 66%  
378 6% 60%  
379 7% 55%  
380 4% 48%  
381 4% 44%  
382 4% 40% Median
383 3% 36%  
384 3% 33%  
385 3% 30%  
386 5% 27%  
387 4% 22%  
388 3% 18%  
389 2% 15%  
390 3% 13%  
391 1.0% 10%  
392 2% 9%  
393 0.8% 7%  
394 1.0% 6%  
395 0.9% 5%  
396 0.5% 5%  
397 0.9% 4%  
398 0.4% 3%  
399 0.6% 3%  
400 0.2% 2%  
401 0.2% 2%  
402 0.1% 2%  
403 0.1% 2%  
404 0.1% 1.5%  
405 0.1% 1.4%  
406 0.1% 1.2%  
407 0.1% 1.1%  
408 0% 1.1%  
409 0.1% 1.0%  
410 0.1% 0.9%  
411 0.1% 0.9%  
412 0.1% 0.7%  
413 0.1% 0.7%  
414 0.1% 0.6%  
415 0% 0.5%  
416 0% 0.5%  
417 0.1% 0.5%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.1% 99.6%  
338 0.2% 99.5%  
339 0.2% 99.3%  
340 0.4% 99.1%  
341 0.3% 98.8%  
342 0.6% 98%  
343 0.6% 98%  
344 0.6% 97%  
345 1.2% 97%  
346 1.2% 95%  
347 2% 94%  
348 2% 92%  
349 3% 90%  
350 2% 88%  
351 3% 85%  
352 3% 82%  
353 3% 79%  
354 3% 77%  
355 4% 73% Majority
356 3% 69%  
357 5% 65%  
358 4% 61%  
359 4% 57%  
360 5% 53%  
361 5% 49% Median
362 4% 43%  
363 6% 40%  
364 4% 33%  
365 4% 30%  
366 4% 26%  
367 3% 22%  
368 3% 19%  
369 2% 16%  
370 2% 13%  
371 2% 11%  
372 2% 9%  
373 1.1% 8%  
374 1.0% 6%  
375 1.0% 5%  
376 0.6% 4%  
377 0.6% 4%  
378 0.5% 3%  
379 0.3% 3%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.2% 2%  
382 0.3% 2%  
383 0.1% 1.5%  
384 0.2% 1.4%  
385 0.2% 1.2%  
386 0.1% 1.0%  
387 0.1% 0.9%  
388 0.1% 0.8%  
389 0.1% 0.8%  
390 0% 0.6%  
391 0.1% 0.6%  
392 0.1% 0.5%  
393 0% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.2% 99.6%  
308 0.4% 99.4%  
309 0.3% 99.0%  
310 0.5% 98.7%  
311 0.6% 98%  
312 1.1% 98%  
313 0.6% 97%  
314 1.1% 96%  
315 2% 95%  
316 1.3% 93%  
317 2% 92%  
318 2% 90%  
319 3% 88%  
320 2% 85%  
321 3% 83%  
322 3% 81%  
323 3% 78%  
324 3% 75%  
325 3% 71%  
326 5% 68%  
327 4% 64%  
328 6% 60%  
329 3% 54%  
330 7% 51%  
331 4% 44%  
332 4% 40% Median
333 5% 35%  
334 4% 30%  
335 4% 26%  
336 4% 22%  
337 4% 18%  
338 2% 15%  
339 3% 13%  
340 1.5% 10%  
341 2% 8%  
342 1.0% 7%  
343 1.2% 6%  
344 0.9% 5%  
345 0.6% 4%  
346 0.4% 3%  
347 0.4% 3%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.3% 2%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.2% 2%  
352 0.2% 1.4%  
353 0.1% 1.2%  
354 0.1% 1.1%  
355 0.1% 1.0% Majority
356 0.1% 0.9%  
357 0.1% 0.8%  
358 0.1% 0.7%  
359 0.1% 0.6%  
360 0.1% 0.5%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0% 99.7% Last Result
290 0% 99.7%  
291 0% 99.6%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.1% 99.5%  
294 0% 99.4%  
295 0.1% 99.4%  
296 0.1% 99.3%  
297 0.1% 99.2%  
298 0.2% 99.1%  
299 0.1% 98.9%  
300 0.1% 98.8%  
301 0.2% 98.7%  
302 0.2% 98.6%  
303 0.3% 98%  
304 0.3% 98%  
305 0.2% 98%  
306 0.3% 98%  
307 0.4% 97%  
308 0.5% 97%  
309 0.5% 96%  
310 0.7% 96%  
311 1.0% 95%  
312 2% 94%  
313 2% 92%  
314 1.3% 91%  
315 3% 90%  
316 2% 87%  
317 3% 85%  
318 3% 82%  
319 2% 79%  
320 4% 77%  
321 5% 73%  
322 4% 68%  
323 5% 63%  
324 6% 59%  
325 4% 53%  
326 5% 49%  
327 3% 44%  
328 4% 41% Median
329 5% 36%  
330 3% 31%  
331 5% 28%  
332 4% 23%  
333 3% 20%  
334 3% 17%  
335 2% 14%  
336 2% 12%  
337 2% 10%  
338 2% 8%  
339 2% 7%  
340 1.1% 5%  
341 0.7% 4%  
342 0.7% 3%  
343 0.7% 3%  
344 0.5% 2%  
345 0.4% 1.3%  
346 0.3% 0.9%  
347 0.2% 0.7%  
348 0.1% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0.1% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.2% 99.7%  
284 0.2% 99.5%  
285 0.1% 99.3%  
286 0.4% 99.2%  
287 0.7% 98.9%  
288 0.3% 98%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 1.3% 98%  
291 1.2% 96%  
292 1.0% 95%  
293 2% 94%  
294 2% 92%  
295 2% 91%  
296 2% 89%  
297 3% 86%  
298 4% 83%  
299 3% 80%  
300 3% 77%  
301 6% 74%  
302 4% 69%  
303 4% 65%  
304 5% 61%  
305 6% 56%  
306 3% 50%  
307 5% 47% Median
308 6% 42%  
309 3% 36%  
310 3% 33%  
311 4% 30%  
312 5% 25%  
313 1.1% 20%  
314 4% 19%  
315 2% 15%  
316 2% 13%  
317 1.0% 11%  
318 2% 10%  
319 2% 7%  
320 0.6% 6%  
321 1.1% 5%  
322 0.8% 4%  
323 0.5% 3%  
324 0.4% 3%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.3% 2% Last Result
327 0.2% 2%  
328 0.2% 1.3%  
329 0.2% 1.2%  
330 0.1% 0.9%  
331 0.1% 0.8%  
332 0.1% 0.7%  
333 0.1% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0% 0.4%  
337 0% 0.3%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 0.2% 99.7%  
262 0.3% 99.5%  
263 0.4% 99.2%  
264 0.7% 98.8%  
265 0.6% 98%  
266 0.7% 98%  
267 0.7% 97%  
268 1.2% 96%  
269 2% 95%  
270 2% 93%  
271 2% 92%  
272 2% 90%  
273 2% 87%  
274 2% 86%  
275 2% 84%  
276 3% 81%  
277 3% 79%  
278 4% 76%  
279 4% 72%  
280 5% 68%  
281 4% 63%  
282 4% 59%  
283 4% 55%  
284 5% 51% Median
285 8% 46%  
286 4% 38%  
287 6% 34%  
288 3% 28%  
289 4% 25%  
290 3% 21%  
291 3% 17%  
292 3% 14%  
293 3% 11%  
294 1.0% 8%  
295 1.1% 7%  
296 0.8% 6%  
297 0.8% 5%  
298 0.8% 4%  
299 0.8% 4%  
300 0.4% 3%  
301 0.4% 2%  
302 0.2% 2%  
303 0.2% 2%  
304 0.2% 2%  
305 0.2% 1.4%  
306 0.2% 1.2%  
307 0.1% 1.0%  
308 0.1% 0.9%  
309 0.1% 0.8%  
310 0.1% 0.7%  
311 0.1% 0.6%  
312 0.1% 0.5%  
313 0.1% 0.4%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0.1% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.7%  
257 0.2% 99.6%  
258 0.2% 99.4%  
259 0.2% 99.3%  
260 0.4% 99.0%  
261 0.4% 98.7%  
262 0.8% 98%  
263 0.7% 97%  
264 1.1% 97%  
265 1.0% 96%  
266 2% 95%  
267 2% 93%  
268 2% 91%  
269 2% 90%  
270 4% 88%  
271 4% 84%  
272 2% 80%  
273 3% 77%  
274 3% 75%  
275 5% 71%  
276 5% 66%  
277 5% 61%  
278 3% 57%  
279 7% 54%  
280 6% 47%  
281 4% 41% Median
282 3% 37%  
283 5% 34%  
284 4% 29%  
285 3% 25%  
286 3% 22%  
287 3% 19%  
288 3% 16%  
289 2% 13%  
290 2% 11%  
291 1.3% 9%  
292 1.2% 7%  
293 1.1% 6%  
294 1.0% 5%  
295 0.7% 4%  
296 0.7% 3%  
297 0.4% 3%  
298 0.4% 2%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0.2% 1.5%  
301 0.2% 1.3%  
302 0.2% 1.1%  
303 0.3% 0.9%  
304 0.1% 0.7%  
305 0.1% 0.6%  
306 0.1% 0.5%  
307 0.1% 0.4%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
199 0% 100%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0.1% 99.9%  
202 0.1% 99.9%  
203 0.2% 99.8%  
204 0.2% 99.6%  
205 0.2% 99.4%  
206 0.3% 99.3%  
207 0.5% 99.0%  
208 0.4% 98%  
209 0.6% 98%  
210 1.0% 97%  
211 1.4% 96%  
212 1.1% 95%  
213 2% 94%  
214 2% 92%  
215 2% 90%  
216 4% 88%  
217 3% 84%  
218 3% 81%  
219 4% 78%  
220 4% 74%  
221 4% 70%  
222 5% 66%  
223 5% 62%  
224 6% 57%  
225 5% 51%  
226 4% 46%  
227 5% 42% Median
228 3% 37%  
229 7% 33%  
230 3% 27%  
231 3% 24%  
232 4% 20%  
233 2% 16% Last Result
234 2% 14%  
235 2% 12%  
236 2% 10%  
237 2% 8%  
238 0.9% 6%  
239 1.1% 5%  
240 0.6% 4%  
241 0.7% 3%  
242 0.6% 3%  
243 0.3% 2%  
244 0.5% 2%  
245 0.2% 1.3%  
246 0.3% 1.0%  
247 0.1% 0.8%  
248 0.1% 0.7%  
249 0.1% 0.5%  
250 0.1% 0.4%  
251 0.1% 0.4%  
252 0% 0.3%  
253 0.1% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.2% 99.8%  
126 0.1% 99.6%  
127 0.1% 99.5%  
128 0% 99.4%  
129 0% 99.4%  
130 0% 99.4%  
131 0% 99.3%  
132 0.1% 99.3%  
133 0.2% 99.2%  
134 0.2% 98.9%  
135 0.2% 98.7%  
136 0.1% 98%  
137 0% 98%  
138 0% 98%  
139 0% 98%  
140 0% 98%  
141 0.1% 98%  
142 0.1% 98%  
143 0.1% 98%  
144 0.1% 98%  
145 0% 98%  
146 0% 98%  
147 0% 98%  
148 0% 98%  
149 0% 98%  
150 0.1% 98%  
151 0.1% 98%  
152 0.1% 98%  
153 0.3% 98%  
154 0.3% 97%  
155 0.3% 97%  
156 0.7% 97%  
157 0.6% 96%  
158 2% 95%  
159 2% 94%  
160 0.7% 92%  
161 4% 92%  
162 2% 87%  
163 2% 86%  
164 4% 83%  
165 3% 79%  
166 6% 77%  
167 5% 71%  
168 3% 66%  
169 9% 63%  
170 3% 55%  
171 7% 52%  
172 4% 45%  
173 3% 40% Median
174 8% 37%  
175 4% 29%  
176 3% 25%  
177 5% 22%  
178 3% 17%  
179 3% 14%  
180 2% 11%  
181 1.1% 9%  
182 3% 8%  
183 1.0% 5%  
184 0.8% 4%  
185 1.0% 3%  
186 0.4% 2%  
187 0.8% 2%  
188 0.3% 1.2%  
189 0.2% 0.9%  
190 0.3% 0.7%  
191 0.1% 0.4%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations