Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 30 July–2 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.5% 21.4–23.7% 21.0–24.1% 20.7–24.4% 20.2–24.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 168 159–177 157–179 155–182 151–186
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 134 127–142 124–145 122–147 118–151
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 126–142 124–145 122–147 119–151
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 97 90–104 88–106 86–108 83–111
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 76–89 74–91 73–93 70–96
Die Linke 69 53 47–58 46–60 45–61 42–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 36–45 35–47 34–48 32–50

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0.3% 99.5%  
152 0.3% 99.3%  
153 0.4% 98.9%  
154 0.6% 98.5%  
155 0.9% 98%  
156 1.2% 97%  
157 2% 96%  
158 3% 94%  
159 2% 91%  
160 3% 89%  
161 3% 86%  
162 3% 82%  
163 4% 79%  
164 5% 75%  
165 6% 70%  
166 6% 64%  
167 7% 58%  
168 5% 51% Median
169 5% 46%  
170 6% 41%  
171 5% 35%  
172 5% 30%  
173 6% 26%  
174 4% 20%  
175 3% 17%  
176 3% 14%  
177 2% 10%  
178 2% 8%  
179 2% 6%  
180 1.4% 5%  
181 1.0% 3%  
182 0.8% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.3%  
185 0.3% 0.9%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0.1% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.3% 99.5%  
120 0.6% 99.2%  
121 0.5% 98.7%  
122 1.0% 98%  
123 1.0% 97%  
124 2% 96%  
125 2% 95%  
126 2% 92%  
127 4% 90%  
128 3% 86%  
129 5% 83%  
130 5% 78%  
131 6% 73%  
132 7% 67%  
133 6% 60%  
134 7% 54% Median
135 6% 47%  
136 6% 41%  
137 5% 35%  
138 5% 29%  
139 5% 25%  
140 4% 19%  
141 4% 16%  
142 2% 12%  
143 2% 10%  
144 2% 7%  
145 2% 6%  
146 1.2% 4%  
147 0.8% 3%  
148 0.8% 2%  
149 0.4% 1.2%  
150 0.3% 0.8%  
151 0.2% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.4% 99.5%  
120 0.4% 99.1%  
121 0.6% 98.7%  
122 1.1% 98%  
123 1.0% 97%  
124 2% 96%  
125 2% 94%  
126 2% 92%  
127 5% 90%  
128 4% 85%  
129 4% 80%  
130 4% 76%  
131 4% 73%  
132 7% 68%  
133 8% 61%  
134 6% 53% Median
135 5% 47%  
136 5% 42%  
137 7% 37%  
138 6% 29%  
139 3% 24%  
140 4% 21%  
141 5% 17%  
142 3% 12%  
143 2% 9%  
144 1.0% 7%  
145 1.3% 6%  
146 1.1% 4%  
147 1.4% 3%  
148 0.8% 2%  
149 0.3% 1.1%  
150 0.2% 0.8%  
151 0.2% 0.6%  
152 0.1% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 0.4% 99.4%  
85 0.7% 99.0%  
86 1.0% 98%  
87 1.3% 97%  
88 2% 96%  
89 2% 94%  
90 3% 92%  
91 4% 89%  
92 5% 85%  
93 6% 80%  
94 7% 74%  
95 8% 67%  
96 8% 60%  
97 7% 52% Median
98 7% 45%  
99 7% 39%  
100 6% 31%  
101 5% 25%  
102 4% 20%  
103 4% 16%  
104 3% 12%  
105 3% 9%  
106 2% 7%  
107 1.4% 4%  
108 1.0% 3%  
109 0.8% 2%  
110 0.5% 1.3%  
111 0.3% 0.8%  
112 0.2% 0.5%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.5%  
71 0.4% 99.2%  
72 0.8% 98.7%  
73 1.0% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 4% 95%  
76 4% 91%  
77 7% 87%  
78 7% 80%  
79 5% 73%  
80 6% 68%  
81 5% 63%  
82 7% 58%  
83 9% 51% Median
84 6% 42%  
85 8% 36%  
86 8% 28%  
87 6% 20%  
88 4% 14%  
89 3% 10%  
90 2% 7%  
91 1.4% 6%  
92 1.3% 4%  
93 1.1% 3%  
94 0.8% 2% Last Result
95 0.5% 1.1%  
96 0.3% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.6% 99.5%  
44 1.1% 98.9%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 93%  
48 5% 89%  
49 7% 84%  
50 9% 77%  
51 9% 68%  
52 9% 59%  
53 9% 51% Median
54 9% 42%  
55 8% 32%  
56 6% 24%  
57 5% 18%  
58 4% 13%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.2% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.2%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.7%  
33 1.1% 99.2%  
34 2% 98%  
35 4% 96%  
36 6% 92%  
37 7% 86%  
38 9% 79%  
39 10% 71%  
40 11% 60% Median
41 11% 50%  
42 9% 39%  
43 8% 29%  
44 6% 21%  
45 5% 15%  
46 4% 10% Last Result
47 3% 6%  
48 1.5% 3%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 477 100% 467–487 465–489 462–492 457–496
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 440 100% 430–449 427–452 425–455 419–459
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 440 100% 430–450 427–453 424–455 420–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 388 100% 378–398 375–401 372–403 367–408
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 365 92% 355–376 353–378 350–381 345–386
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 343 7% 333–352 330–356 327–359 322–363
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 343 7% 333–353 330–356 327–358 322–364
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 321 0% 311–331 308–334 306–337 301–342
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 305 0% 296–315 293–318 290–321 285–326
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 291 0% 281–301 278–304 276–306 271–311
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 269 0% 259–279 256–281 253–284 249–288
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 231 0% 222–241 219–243 217–246 212–251
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 187 0% 178–196 176–199 173–201 169–205

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0.1% 99.9%  
456 0.1% 99.8%  
457 0.2% 99.7%  
458 0.2% 99.4%  
459 0.3% 99.3%  
460 0.3% 99.0%  
461 0.5% 98.6%  
462 0.9% 98%  
463 0.8% 97%  
464 1.1% 96%  
465 1.3% 95%  
466 2% 94% Last Result
467 2% 92%  
468 3% 90%  
469 3% 87%  
470 3% 84%  
471 4% 81%  
472 4% 77%  
473 4% 73%  
474 5% 68%  
475 5% 63%  
476 5% 58% Median
477 6% 53%  
478 5% 48%  
479 4% 43%  
480 6% 38%  
481 5% 33%  
482 4% 28%  
483 5% 23%  
484 3% 19%  
485 3% 16%  
486 3% 13%  
487 2% 11%  
488 2% 8%  
489 2% 6%  
490 1.1% 5%  
491 0.9% 3%  
492 0.7% 3%  
493 0.7% 2%  
494 0.4% 1.3%  
495 0.2% 0.9%  
496 0.2% 0.7%  
497 0.2% 0.5%  
498 0.1% 0.3%  
499 0.1% 0.2%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0.1%  
502 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.2% 99.7%  
420 0.2% 99.4%  
421 0.3% 99.3%  
422 0.4% 99.0%  
423 0.4% 98.6%  
424 0.5% 98%  
425 0.8% 98%  
426 1.4% 97%  
427 1.1% 96%  
428 2% 94%  
429 2% 93%  
430 2% 91%  
431 3% 88%  
432 4% 86%  
433 2% 82%  
434 3% 80%  
435 5% 76%  
436 4% 71%  
437 4% 67%  
438 5% 62%  
439 5% 57% Median
440 6% 52%  
441 4% 46%  
442 4% 42%  
443 5% 38%  
444 6% 33%  
445 4% 27%  
446 4% 23%  
447 4% 19%  
448 3% 15%  
449 3% 12%  
450 2% 9%  
451 1.5% 8%  
452 1.3% 6%  
453 1.1% 5%  
454 0.8% 4%  
455 0.8% 3%  
456 0.7% 2%  
457 0.5% 2%  
458 0.4% 1.1%  
459 0.2% 0.7%  
460 0.1% 0.5%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0.1% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.2% 99.7%  
420 0.2% 99.5%  
421 0.3% 99.3%  
422 0.3% 99.1%  
423 0.7% 98.7%  
424 0.6% 98%  
425 0.6% 97%  
426 1.1% 97%  
427 1.3% 96%  
428 2% 95%  
429 2% 92%  
430 2% 90%  
431 2% 88%  
432 3% 86%  
433 4% 83%  
434 4% 80%  
435 4% 75%  
436 5% 71%  
437 6% 66%  
438 4% 60%  
439 4% 56% Median
440 6% 52%  
441 5% 47%  
442 6% 41%  
443 3% 35%  
444 3% 32%  
445 5% 29%  
446 4% 24%  
447 5% 20%  
448 3% 16%  
449 3% 13%  
450 2% 10%  
451 2% 9%  
452 1.2% 6%  
453 1.3% 5%  
454 1.0% 4%  
455 1.0% 3%  
456 0.4% 2%  
457 0.4% 1.5%  
458 0.4% 1.1%  
459 0.2% 0.7%  
460 0.2% 0.5%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.2% 99.6%  
368 0.2% 99.5%  
369 0.2% 99.3%  
370 0.4% 99.0%  
371 0.5% 98.6%  
372 0.8% 98%  
373 0.9% 97%  
374 1.2% 96%  
375 1.5% 95%  
376 1.0% 94%  
377 2% 93%  
378 2% 90%  
379 3% 88%  
380 3% 86%  
381 4% 83%  
382 4% 79%  
383 4% 75%  
384 6% 71%  
385 4% 66%  
386 5% 61%  
387 4% 57%  
388 6% 53% Median
389 5% 47%  
390 6% 42%  
391 4% 37%  
392 4% 32%  
393 4% 28%  
394 3% 24%  
395 3% 20%  
396 3% 17%  
397 2% 14%  
398 3% 11%  
399 2% 9%  
400 2% 7%  
401 1.3% 5%  
402 0.9% 4%  
403 0.8% 3%  
404 0.7% 2%  
405 0.5% 2%  
406 0.4% 1.3%  
407 0.3% 0.9%  
408 0.1% 0.6%  
409 0.2% 0.5%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.2%  
412 0.1% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0.1% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.2% 99.6%  
346 0.2% 99.4%  
347 0.4% 99.2%  
348 0.5% 98.8%  
349 0.7% 98%  
350 0.7% 98%  
351 0.9% 97%  
352 0.9% 96%  
353 1.2% 95%  
354 2% 94%  
355 2% 92% Majority
356 3% 90%  
357 3% 87%  
358 4% 83%  
359 2% 80%  
360 4% 78%  
361 4% 73%  
362 4% 70%  
363 5% 65%  
364 5% 61%  
365 6% 55% Median
366 5% 49%  
367 5% 44%  
368 3% 39%  
369 4% 36%  
370 5% 32%  
371 4% 27%  
372 4% 23%  
373 3% 19%  
374 3% 16%  
375 2% 13%  
376 2% 11%  
377 2% 9%  
378 2% 7%  
379 0.9% 5%  
380 0.9% 4%  
381 1.0% 3%  
382 0.5% 2%  
383 0.5% 2%  
384 0.3% 1.2%  
385 0.3% 0.9%  
386 0.2% 0.7%  
387 0.2% 0.5%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.2% 99.6%  
323 0.3% 99.4%  
324 0.4% 99.1%  
325 0.4% 98.7%  
326 0.6% 98%  
327 0.5% 98%  
328 0.6% 97%  
329 0.8% 97%  
330 0.8% 96%  
331 2% 95%  
332 1.3% 93%  
333 3% 92%  
334 4% 89%  
335 4% 85%  
336 3% 81%  
337 5% 78%  
338 5% 73%  
339 3% 68%  
340 4% 64%  
341 4% 60%  
342 3% 56% Median
343 3% 53%  
344 5% 50%  
345 5% 44%  
346 5% 39%  
347 6% 34%  
348 5% 28%  
349 5% 23%  
350 4% 19%  
351 3% 14%  
352 2% 12%  
353 2% 10%  
354 2% 8%  
355 1.0% 7% Majority
356 0.9% 6%  
357 1.1% 5%  
358 0.9% 4%  
359 0.7% 3%  
360 0.7% 2%  
361 0.4% 1.3%  
362 0.2% 0.9%  
363 0.2% 0.6%  
364 0.2% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.2% 99.6%  
323 0.2% 99.5%  
324 0.3% 99.3%  
325 0.5% 99.0%  
326 0.5% 98%  
327 0.7% 98%  
328 0.6% 97%  
329 2% 97%  
330 0.9% 95%  
331 2% 94%  
332 1.4% 92%  
333 3% 90%  
334 2% 87%  
335 4% 85%  
336 3% 81%  
337 4% 78%  
338 3% 75%  
339 5% 71%  
340 4% 66%  
341 5% 61%  
342 4% 56% Median
343 6% 52%  
344 4% 46%  
345 5% 42%  
346 5% 37%  
347 3% 32%  
348 6% 29%  
349 3% 23%  
350 5% 21%  
351 2% 16%  
352 2% 14%  
353 2% 11%  
354 2% 9%  
355 1.2% 7% Majority
356 1.5% 6%  
357 0.8% 4%  
358 1.1% 3%  
359 0.4% 2%  
360 0.7% 2%  
361 0.2% 1.2%  
362 0.4% 1.0%  
363 0.1% 0.6%  
364 0.2% 0.5%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0.1% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.2% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.5%  
302 0.3% 99.4%  
303 0.4% 99.1%  
304 0.5% 98.7%  
305 0.7% 98%  
306 0.8% 98%  
307 0.9% 97%  
308 1.3% 96%  
309 2% 95%  
310 2% 93%  
311 3% 91%  
312 2% 89%  
313 3% 86%  
314 3% 83%  
315 3% 80%  
316 4% 76%  
317 4% 72%  
318 4% 68%  
319 6% 63%  
320 5% 58%  
321 6% 53% Median
322 4% 47%  
323 5% 43%  
324 4% 39%  
325 6% 34%  
326 4% 29%  
327 4% 25%  
328 4% 21%  
329 3% 17%  
330 3% 14%  
331 2% 12%  
332 2% 10%  
333 1.0% 7%  
334 1.5% 6%  
335 1.2% 5%  
336 0.9% 4%  
337 0.8% 3%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.4% 1.4%  
340 0.2% 1.0%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.2% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.2% 99.5%  
287 0.4% 99.3%  
288 0.4% 98.9%  
289 0.6% 98%  
290 0.8% 98%  
291 0.9% 97%  
292 1.0% 96%  
293 1.1% 95%  
294 2% 94%  
295 2% 92%  
296 2% 90%  
297 4% 88%  
298 3% 84%  
299 3% 81%  
300 3% 78%  
301 6% 75%  
302 3% 69%  
303 4% 65%  
304 7% 62%  
305 5% 55% Median
306 4% 50%  
307 6% 46%  
308 6% 40%  
309 3% 34%  
310 4% 31%  
311 6% 28%  
312 3% 21%  
313 2% 18%  
314 4% 16%  
315 2% 12%  
316 1.2% 10%  
317 2% 9%  
318 2% 7%  
319 0.9% 5%  
320 0.9% 4%  
321 1.1% 3%  
322 0.5% 2%  
323 0.2% 1.5%  
324 0.4% 1.2%  
325 0.3% 0.9%  
326 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0.2% 99.7%  
271 0.2% 99.5%  
272 0.2% 99.3%  
273 0.5% 99.1%  
274 0.5% 98.6%  
275 0.4% 98%  
276 1.0% 98%  
277 1.2% 97%  
278 0.8% 96%  
279 2% 95%  
280 2% 93%  
281 2% 90%  
282 4% 89%  
283 3% 85%  
284 3% 82%  
285 4% 79%  
286 4% 75%  
287 3% 70%  
288 5% 67%  
289 5% 62%  
290 4% 56%  
291 7% 53% Median
292 4% 46%  
293 4% 42%  
294 6% 38%  
295 3% 32%  
296 4% 28%  
297 5% 24%  
298 3% 19%  
299 3% 16%  
300 3% 13%  
301 2% 10%  
302 1.3% 9%  
303 2% 7%  
304 0.8% 5%  
305 0.8% 4%  
306 1.3% 3%  
307 0.4% 2%  
308 0.6% 2%  
309 0.4% 1.2%  
310 0.2% 0.8%  
311 0.2% 0.6%  
312 0.2% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0.3% 99.5%  
250 0.2% 99.2%  
251 0.4% 99.0%  
252 0.6% 98.6%  
253 0.6% 98%  
254 0.9% 97%  
255 1.1% 96%  
256 1.2% 95%  
257 2% 94%  
258 2% 92%  
259 2% 91%  
260 3% 88%  
261 4% 85%  
262 4% 81%  
263 5% 78%  
264 3% 72%  
265 4% 69%  
266 5% 65%  
267 5% 60%  
268 5% 55% Median
269 5% 51%  
270 6% 46%  
271 6% 40%  
272 4% 34%  
273 4% 30%  
274 5% 26%  
275 3% 21%  
276 3% 18%  
277 2% 14%  
278 2% 13%  
279 3% 11%  
280 1.4% 8%  
281 2% 7%  
282 0.9% 5%  
283 0.9% 4%  
284 1.0% 3%  
285 0.6% 2%  
286 0.5% 1.5%  
287 0.4% 1.0%  
288 0.2% 0.7%  
289 0.1% 0.5%  
290 0.1% 0.4%  
291 0.1% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.8%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.3% 99.7%  
213 0.2% 99.4%  
214 0.3% 99.2%  
215 0.6% 98.9%  
216 0.4% 98%  
217 0.8% 98%  
218 1.3% 97%  
219 1.5% 96%  
220 2% 94%  
221 2% 93%  
222 3% 90%  
223 2% 88%  
224 3% 86%  
225 5% 82%  
226 2% 77%  
227 5% 75%  
228 6% 70%  
229 4% 64%  
230 7% 60%  
231 7% 54% Median
232 3% 47%  
233 6% 44% Last Result
234 5% 38%  
235 4% 33%  
236 5% 28%  
237 4% 23%  
238 3% 19%  
239 2% 16%  
240 3% 14%  
241 2% 10%  
242 2% 9%  
243 2% 7%  
244 0.8% 5%  
245 0.7% 4%  
246 1.0% 3%  
247 0.9% 2%  
248 0.2% 1.4%  
249 0.4% 1.2%  
250 0.3% 0.8%  
251 0.2% 0.5%  
252 0.1% 0.4%  
253 0.1% 0.3%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.8%  
169 0.1% 99.6%  
170 0.5% 99.5%  
171 0.4% 99.0%  
172 0.4% 98.6%  
173 0.9% 98%  
174 1.3% 97%  
175 0.9% 96%  
176 2% 95%  
177 2% 93%  
178 3% 92%  
179 4% 89%  
180 3% 86%  
181 4% 83%  
182 7% 79%  
183 3% 72%  
184 6% 69%  
185 6% 63%  
186 4% 57%  
187 5% 52% Median
188 9% 48%  
189 5% 39%  
190 5% 33%  
191 3% 29%  
192 3% 25%  
193 5% 22%  
194 3% 17%  
195 2% 14%  
196 3% 12%  
197 2% 8%  
198 1.2% 6%  
199 1.2% 5%  
200 1.1% 4%  
201 0.7% 3%  
202 0.9% 2%  
203 0.3% 1.3%  
204 0.3% 1.0%  
205 0.2% 0.7%  
206 0.1% 0.4%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations