Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 2–6 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.1% 20.0–22.3% 19.7–22.7% 19.4–23.0% 18.9–23.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.2–5.8% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 162 153–172 150–174 148–176 145–180
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 138 130–147 127–149 126–151 122–155
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 138 130–146 128–149 126–151 122–155
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 92 85–99 83–101 82–103 78–107
Alternative für Deutschland 94 85 78–92 77–93 74–95 71–99
Die Linke 69 54 48–59 47–61 46–63 43–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 36–46 35–47 34–48 32–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.7%  
145 0.2% 99.6%  
146 0.5% 99.3%  
147 0.7% 98.9%  
148 0.7% 98%  
149 1.2% 97%  
150 2% 96%  
151 1.5% 94%  
152 2% 93%  
153 3% 91%  
154 4% 88%  
155 4% 84%  
156 5% 80%  
157 5% 75%  
158 5% 70%  
159 4% 65%  
160 5% 61%  
161 5% 57%  
162 4% 52% Median
163 5% 47%  
164 6% 43%  
165 6% 37%  
166 3% 31%  
167 4% 28%  
168 4% 24%  
169 3% 20%  
170 3% 17%  
171 4% 14%  
172 2% 10%  
173 2% 8%  
174 2% 6%  
175 1.5% 4%  
176 0.5% 3%  
177 0.7% 2%  
178 0.6% 2%  
179 0.4% 1.1%  
180 0.2% 0.7%  
181 0.2% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.2%  
184 0.1% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.2% 99.7%  
122 0.2% 99.5%  
123 0.3% 99.3%  
124 0.5% 99.0%  
125 0.9% 98%  
126 1.2% 98%  
127 2% 96%  
128 2% 95%  
129 3% 93%  
130 3% 90%  
131 5% 88%  
132 6% 83%  
133 4% 77%  
134 7% 73%  
135 6% 66%  
136 5% 60%  
137 4% 55%  
138 4% 51% Median
139 5% 47%  
140 5% 42%  
141 4% 37%  
142 5% 33%  
143 4% 28%  
144 4% 24%  
145 4% 19%  
146 3% 15%  
147 3% 12%  
148 3% 9%  
149 2% 7%  
150 2% 4%  
151 0.8% 3%  
152 0.6% 2%  
153 0.4% 1.2% Last Result
154 0.2% 0.8%  
155 0.2% 0.6%  
156 0.1% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.2% 99.7%  
122 0.3% 99.6%  
123 0.5% 99.3%  
124 0.6% 98.8%  
125 0.6% 98%  
126 0.9% 98%  
127 1.5% 97%  
128 2% 95%  
129 3% 93%  
130 3% 90%  
131 3% 87%  
132 4% 85%  
133 5% 81%  
134 7% 76%  
135 5% 69%  
136 4% 64%  
137 4% 59%  
138 7% 55% Median
139 8% 48%  
140 6% 39%  
141 4% 33%  
142 3% 29%  
143 5% 26%  
144 5% 21%  
145 4% 16%  
146 3% 12%  
147 2% 9%  
148 1.3% 7%  
149 1.4% 6%  
150 2% 4%  
151 1.1% 3%  
152 0.4% 2%  
153 0.3% 1.2%  
154 0.3% 0.9%  
155 0.2% 0.7%  
156 0.2% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.3% 99.4%  
80 0.6% 99.1% Last Result
81 0.8% 98%  
82 1.4% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 3% 95%  
85 4% 91%  
86 3% 87%  
87 5% 83%  
88 4% 78%  
89 6% 74%  
90 6% 68%  
91 10% 62%  
92 6% 52% Median
93 9% 46%  
94 6% 37%  
95 8% 32%  
96 4% 24%  
97 5% 20%  
98 3% 16%  
99 4% 13%  
100 2% 9%  
101 3% 7%  
102 1.1% 4%  
103 1.2% 3%  
104 0.4% 2%  
105 0.5% 1.4%  
106 0.3% 0.9%  
107 0.2% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.6% 99.4%  
73 0.7% 98.8%  
74 0.6% 98%  
75 0.8% 97%  
76 2% 97%  
77 3% 95%  
78 6% 92%  
79 7% 86%  
80 6% 79%  
81 5% 73%  
82 3% 68%  
83 5% 65%  
84 7% 60%  
85 10% 53% Median
86 13% 43%  
87 8% 30%  
88 4% 22%  
89 3% 18%  
90 2% 16%  
91 3% 13%  
92 4% 10%  
93 2% 7%  
94 2% 4% Last Result
95 0.7% 3%  
96 0.4% 2%  
97 0.3% 1.4%  
98 0.4% 1.1%  
99 0.3% 0.7%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.6% 99.4%  
45 1.1% 98.8%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 96%  
48 4% 94%  
49 6% 90%  
50 7% 84%  
51 8% 77%  
52 9% 69%  
53 10% 60%  
54 9% 50% Median
55 9% 41%  
56 6% 33%  
57 7% 26%  
58 5% 19%  
59 4% 13%  
60 3% 9%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.5% 4%  
63 1.2% 3%  
64 0.6% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.6%  
33 1.1% 99.1%  
34 2% 98%  
35 3% 96%  
36 5% 93%  
37 6% 88%  
38 8% 82%  
39 11% 74%  
40 10% 63%  
41 10% 53% Median
42 11% 42%  
43 8% 32%  
44 7% 24%  
45 6% 17%  
46 4% 11% Last Result
47 3% 7%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.4%  
51 0.4% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 479 100% 469–488 466–490 463–493 458–498
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 433 100% 422–443 419–446 417–449 412–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 433 100% 423–443 420–446 417–448 412–453
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 379 99.9% 368–390 366–393 363–395 358–400
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 367 96% 357–380 355–381 351–385 346–388
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 341 5% 330–351 327–355 325–357 320–362
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 341 5% 331–351 327–354 325–357 320–362
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 330 0.1% 319–341 316–343 314–346 309–351
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 295 0% 284–306 281–309 279–311 274–316
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 287 0% 277–298 274–301 271–303 266–308
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 276 0% 266–287 264–289 261–291 255–296
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 230 0% 220–240 217–243 215–246 210–250
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 192 0% 182–202 180–205 177–207 173–211

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
453 0% 100%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0.1% 99.9%  
456 0.1% 99.8%  
457 0.1% 99.8%  
458 0.2% 99.6%  
459 0.2% 99.4%  
460 0.5% 99.3%  
461 0.4% 98.7%  
462 0.4% 98%  
463 0.7% 98%  
464 1.1% 97%  
465 0.9% 96%  
466 1.2% 95% Last Result
467 0.9% 94%  
468 1.4% 93%  
469 3% 92%  
470 2% 89%  
471 3% 87%  
472 2% 84%  
473 3% 82%  
474 3% 79%  
475 5% 75%  
476 4% 70%  
477 4% 66%  
478 5% 61%  
479 7% 56% Median
480 6% 49%  
481 6% 44%  
482 6% 38%  
483 5% 32%  
484 5% 27%  
485 4% 21%  
486 3% 17%  
487 3% 14%  
488 3% 11%  
489 1.5% 8%  
490 1.3% 6%  
491 1.0% 5%  
492 0.9% 4%  
493 1.1% 3%  
494 0.6% 2%  
495 0.3% 1.4%  
496 0.2% 1.1%  
497 0.2% 0.9%  
498 0.2% 0.6%  
499 0.1% 0.5%  
500 0.1% 0.3%  
501 0.1% 0.2%  
502 0% 0.2%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0.1% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.8%  
411 0.1% 99.7%  
412 0.2% 99.6%  
413 0.3% 99.4%  
414 0.3% 99.1%  
415 0.4% 98.8%  
416 0.5% 98%  
417 0.9% 98%  
418 0.9% 97%  
419 1.4% 96%  
420 1.4% 95%  
421 2% 93%  
422 2% 91%  
423 2% 89%  
424 3% 87%  
425 3% 84%  
426 4% 81%  
427 5% 77%  
428 3% 72%  
429 5% 70%  
430 4% 64%  
431 4% 60%  
432 4% 56%  
433 5% 52% Median
434 4% 47%  
435 5% 44%  
436 4% 38%  
437 4% 34%  
438 4% 30%  
439 4% 26%  
440 3% 21%  
441 3% 18%  
442 3% 15%  
443 3% 13%  
444 2% 10%  
445 2% 8%  
446 1.4% 6%  
447 1.1% 5%  
448 1.0% 4%  
449 0.7% 3%  
450 0.5% 2%  
451 0.5% 2%  
452 0.3% 1.1%  
453 0.3% 0.8%  
454 0.2% 0.6%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0.1% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.8%  
411 0.1% 99.7%  
412 0.2% 99.6%  
413 0.3% 99.4%  
414 0.2% 99.1%  
415 0.4% 98.9%  
416 0.6% 98%  
417 0.7% 98%  
418 1.1% 97%  
419 1.0% 96%  
420 1.4% 95%  
421 1.1% 94%  
422 3% 93%  
423 2% 90%  
424 3% 88%  
425 3% 85%  
426 3% 82%  
427 3% 79%  
428 4% 76%  
429 5% 72%  
430 7% 67%  
431 4% 60%  
432 4% 56%  
433 3% 52% Median
434 6% 48%  
435 5% 42%  
436 5% 37%  
437 4% 32%  
438 3% 28%  
439 4% 25%  
440 3% 21%  
441 4% 19%  
442 3% 14%  
443 2% 11%  
444 2% 9%  
445 1.5% 7%  
446 1.4% 6%  
447 0.9% 4%  
448 1.3% 3%  
449 0.5% 2%  
450 0.4% 2%  
451 0.3% 1.3%  
452 0.3% 1.0%  
453 0.2% 0.7%  
454 0.2% 0.5%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0.3% 99.6%  
359 0.2% 99.3%  
360 0.3% 99.1%  
361 0.5% 98.8%  
362 0.5% 98%  
363 0.5% 98%  
364 1.0% 97%  
365 1.1% 96%  
366 2% 95%  
367 2% 94%  
368 3% 92%  
369 2% 89%  
370 2% 87%  
371 4% 85%  
372 2% 81%  
373 4% 79%  
374 4% 75%  
375 4% 70%  
376 4% 66%  
377 5% 62%  
378 4% 57%  
379 3% 52%  
380 5% 49% Median
381 5% 44%  
382 3% 39%  
383 4% 36%  
384 5% 32%  
385 3% 27%  
386 3% 24%  
387 5% 21%  
388 2% 16%  
389 2% 13%  
390 3% 11%  
391 2% 8%  
392 1.1% 6%  
393 1.4% 5%  
394 0.9% 4%  
395 0.5% 3%  
396 0.7% 2%  
397 0.5% 2%  
398 0.3% 1.2%  
399 0.3% 0.9%  
400 0.2% 0.7%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0.2% 99.8%  
346 0.2% 99.6%  
347 0.1% 99.5%  
348 0.1% 99.4%  
349 0.2% 99.3%  
350 0.8% 99.1%  
351 0.9% 98%  
352 0.4% 97%  
353 0.2% 97%  
354 0.8% 97%  
355 2% 96% Majority
356 3% 94%  
357 2% 91%  
358 0.9% 89%  
359 1.1% 88%  
360 7% 87%  
361 4% 80%  
362 3% 76%  
363 0.8% 73%  
364 4% 72%  
365 8% 69%  
366 7% 61%  
367 4% 54%  
368 2% 50% Median
369 2% 48%  
370 6% 46%  
371 6% 40%  
372 6% 34%  
373 1.1% 28%  
374 1.3% 27%  
375 6% 26%  
376 5% 20%  
377 4% 15%  
378 1.2% 12%  
379 0.4% 10%  
380 2% 10%  
381 3% 8%  
382 2% 5%  
383 0.2% 3%  
384 0.2% 3%  
385 0.5% 3%  
386 0.9% 2%  
387 0.7% 1.2%  
388 0.1% 0.5%  
389 0.1% 0.5%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0.2% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.7%  
320 0.2% 99.5%  
321 0.3% 99.3%  
322 0.4% 99.0%  
323 0.4% 98.6%  
324 0.6% 98%  
325 0.8% 98%  
326 0.8% 97%  
327 1.2% 96%  
328 2% 95%  
329 2% 93%  
330 2% 91%  
331 2% 89%  
332 3% 87%  
333 3% 84%  
334 3% 81%  
335 4% 78%  
336 5% 74%  
337 3% 69%  
338 5% 66%  
339 4% 61%  
340 5% 57%  
341 4% 51% Median
342 5% 48%  
343 4% 43%  
344 5% 39%  
345 4% 34%  
346 4% 29%  
347 3% 25%  
348 3% 22%  
349 4% 19%  
350 2% 15%  
351 3% 12%  
352 2% 10%  
353 2% 8%  
354 1.0% 6%  
355 1.2% 5% Majority
356 0.7% 4%  
357 1.0% 3%  
358 0.6% 2%  
359 0.4% 2%  
360 0.3% 1.2%  
361 0.3% 0.9%  
362 0.1% 0.6%  
363 0.2% 0.5%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0.2% 99.8%  
319 0.2% 99.7%  
320 0.1% 99.5%  
321 0.2% 99.4%  
322 0.3% 99.1%  
323 0.6% 98.8%  
324 0.6% 98%  
325 0.5% 98%  
326 1.0% 97%  
327 1.2% 96%  
328 1.3% 95%  
329 2% 94%  
330 2% 92%  
331 2% 90%  
332 2% 88%  
333 3% 85%  
334 4% 82%  
335 3% 78%  
336 5% 75%  
337 4% 70%  
338 4% 66%  
339 4% 62%  
340 6% 57%  
341 4% 52% Median
342 5% 47%  
343 5% 42%  
344 4% 37%  
345 4% 34%  
346 4% 29%  
347 5% 26%  
348 3% 21%  
349 3% 18%  
350 3% 15%  
351 2% 12%  
352 2% 10%  
353 1.2% 7%  
354 2% 6%  
355 1.1% 5% Majority
356 0.9% 4%  
357 0.6% 3%  
358 0.6% 2%  
359 0.4% 1.4%  
360 0.2% 1.0%  
361 0.2% 0.8%  
362 0.2% 0.6%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.6%  
310 0.3% 99.3%  
311 0.3% 99.1%  
312 0.5% 98.8%  
313 0.7% 98%  
314 0.5% 98%  
315 0.9% 97%  
316 1.4% 96%  
317 1.1% 95%  
318 2% 94%  
319 3% 92%  
320 2% 89%  
321 2% 87%  
322 5% 84%  
323 3% 79%  
324 3% 76%  
325 5% 73%  
326 4% 68%  
327 3% 64%  
328 5% 61%  
329 5% 56%  
330 3% 51% Median
331 4% 48%  
332 5% 43%  
333 4% 38%  
334 4% 34%  
335 4% 30%  
336 4% 25%  
337 2% 21%  
338 4% 19%  
339 2% 15%  
340 2% 13%  
341 3% 11%  
342 2% 8%  
343 2% 6%  
344 1.1% 5%  
345 1.0% 4%  
346 0.5% 3%  
347 0.5% 2%  
348 0.5% 2%  
349 0.3% 1.2%  
350 0.2% 0.9%  
351 0.3% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.2% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.5%  
275 0.2% 99.4%  
276 0.4% 99.1%  
277 0.5% 98.7%  
278 0.6% 98%  
279 0.7% 98%  
280 1.2% 97%  
281 1.3% 96%  
282 1.2% 95%  
283 1.3% 93%  
284 4% 92%  
285 2% 88%  
286 2% 87%  
287 5% 84%  
288 3% 80%  
289 3% 76%  
290 5% 73%  
291 5% 68%  
292 2% 63%  
293 5% 61%  
294 5% 56%  
295 3% 51% Median
296 4% 48%  
297 5% 44%  
298 5% 38%  
299 2% 33%  
300 5% 31%  
301 5% 26%  
302 2% 20%  
303 2% 18%  
304 3% 16%  
305 2% 13%  
306 1.1% 10%  
307 3% 9%  
308 1.2% 6%  
309 0.6% 5%  
310 1.2% 4%  
311 1.1% 3%  
312 0.4% 2%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.6% 1.5%  
315 0.2% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.6%  
317 0.1% 0.5%  
318 0.2% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.2% 99.7%  
267 0.2% 99.5%  
268 0.3% 99.3%  
269 0.4% 99.0%  
270 0.5% 98.6%  
271 0.9% 98%  
272 0.8% 97%  
273 1.1% 96%  
274 2% 95%  
275 1.1% 94%  
276 2% 92%  
277 2% 90%  
278 3% 88%  
279 2% 85%  
280 3% 83%  
281 5% 80%  
282 4% 75%  
283 5% 71%  
284 5% 66%  
285 4% 61%  
286 4% 57%  
287 5% 53%  
288 4% 48% Median
289 4% 44%  
290 5% 41%  
291 4% 35%  
292 5% 31%  
293 3% 25%  
294 4% 22%  
295 3% 18%  
296 2% 15%  
297 3% 13%  
298 1.2% 10%  
299 2% 9%  
300 1.1% 7%  
301 2% 6%  
302 1.1% 4%  
303 0.7% 3%  
304 0.6% 2%  
305 0.5% 2%  
306 0.3% 1.2%  
307 0.3% 0.9%  
308 0.2% 0.6%  
309 0.1% 0.4%  
310 0.1% 0.3%  
311 0.1% 0.2%  
312 0.1% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.2% 99.5%  
256 0.2% 99.4%  
257 0.2% 99.2%  
258 0.3% 99.0%  
259 0.3% 98.7%  
260 0.4% 98%  
261 0.6% 98%  
262 0.9% 97%  
263 1.5% 97%  
264 1.1% 95%  
265 3% 94%  
266 2% 91%  
267 4% 89%  
268 3% 85%  
269 5% 82%  
270 4% 77%  
271 6% 73%  
272 4% 67%  
273 5% 63%  
274 3% 58%  
275 5% 55%  
276 3% 51% Median
277 4% 47%  
278 3% 44%  
279 3% 40%  
280 5% 37%  
281 4% 33%  
282 4% 28%  
283 3% 25%  
284 4% 21%  
285 4% 17%  
286 3% 13%  
287 3% 10%  
288 2% 7%  
289 1.3% 5%  
290 1.3% 4%  
291 1.0% 3%  
292 0.5% 2%  
293 0.3% 1.3%  
294 0.3% 1.0%  
295 0.2% 0.7%  
296 0.1% 0.5%  
297 0.1% 0.4%  
298 0.1% 0.3%  
299 0.1% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0.1% 99.8%  
209 0.1% 99.8%  
210 0.2% 99.7%  
211 0.2% 99.4%  
212 0.5% 99.2%  
213 0.4% 98.7%  
214 0.7% 98%  
215 0.8% 98%  
216 1.1% 97%  
217 1.5% 96%  
218 1.3% 94%  
219 2% 93%  
220 2% 91%  
221 3% 89%  
222 4% 87%  
223 3% 83%  
224 4% 80%  
225 3% 76%  
226 6% 72%  
227 5% 67%  
228 4% 62%  
229 5% 58%  
230 6% 53% Median
231 4% 46%  
232 6% 43%  
233 4% 37% Last Result
234 4% 33%  
235 4% 29%  
236 4% 25%  
237 4% 21%  
238 3% 17%  
239 2% 14%  
240 2% 12%  
241 2% 10%  
242 2% 7%  
243 1.3% 6%  
244 1.1% 5%  
245 0.9% 3%  
246 0.8% 3%  
247 0.4% 2%  
248 0.5% 1.4%  
249 0.2% 0.9%  
250 0.2% 0.7%  
251 0.1% 0.5%  
252 0.1% 0.3%  
253 0.1% 0.2%  
254 0.1% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0.1% 99.9%  
171 0.1% 99.8%  
172 0.1% 99.7%  
173 0.3% 99.6%  
174 0.3% 99.3%  
175 0.4% 99.0%  
176 0.6% 98.6%  
177 0.6% 98%  
178 1.3% 97%  
179 0.8% 96%  
180 2% 95%  
181 2% 94%  
182 3% 92%  
183 3% 89%  
184 4% 87%  
185 4% 83%  
186 4% 79%  
187 4% 75%  
188 5% 71%  
189 5% 66%  
190 4% 61%  
191 6% 57%  
192 5% 51% Median
193 4% 45%  
194 5% 41%  
195 4% 36%  
196 5% 32%  
197 4% 27%  
198 3% 23%  
199 3% 20%  
200 4% 17%  
201 2% 12%  
202 2% 10%  
203 2% 8%  
204 1.2% 6%  
205 2% 5%  
206 0.7% 3%  
207 0.7% 3%  
208 0.7% 2%  
209 0.3% 1.2%  
210 0.2% 0.9%  
211 0.2% 0.7%  
212 0.2% 0.5%  
213 0.1% 0.3%  
214 0.1% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations