Opinion Poll by Forsa, 3–9 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.8–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.2–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.6% 17.3–20.9% 16.8–21.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 18.7% 17.6–19.9% 17.2–20.2% 17.0–20.5% 16.4–21.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.6–8.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.5–5.3% 3.2–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 154 146–163 144–166 141–169 137–173
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 147 139–156 136–159 134–161 130–166
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 144 137–153 133–156 131–160 128–163
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 93 86–101 84–103 82–104 79–109
Alternative für Deutschland 94 78 71–84 69–86 68–88 64–92
Die Linke 69 55 49–60 47–62 46–64 43–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 36 32–41 31–43 30–44 28–47

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.8%  
136 0.2% 99.8%  
137 0.3% 99.6%  
138 0.3% 99.3%  
139 0.5% 99.0%  
140 0.6% 98.6%  
141 0.6% 98%  
142 0.8% 97%  
143 1.3% 97%  
144 1.5% 95%  
145 2% 94%  
146 3% 92%  
147 3% 89%  
148 3% 86%  
149 4% 83%  
150 4% 79%  
151 6% 75%  
152 5% 69%  
153 7% 64%  
154 8% 57% Median
155 6% 49%  
156 6% 44%  
157 5% 37%  
158 4% 32%  
159 5% 28%  
160 4% 23%  
161 5% 19%  
162 3% 14%  
163 3% 12%  
164 2% 9%  
165 1.2% 7%  
166 1.3% 6%  
167 0.9% 4%  
168 0.9% 3%  
169 0.6% 3%  
170 0.5% 2%  
171 0.5% 1.5%  
172 0.2% 1.0%  
173 0.2% 0.7%  
174 0.1% 0.5%  
175 0.1% 0.4%  
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0% 0.2%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.1% 99.7%  
130 0.3% 99.6%  
131 0.3% 99.3%  
132 0.4% 99.0%  
133 0.6% 98.6%  
134 0.7% 98%  
135 1.1% 97%  
136 2% 96%  
137 2% 94%  
138 2% 92%  
139 3% 90%  
140 4% 87%  
141 4% 84%  
142 5% 79%  
143 5% 75%  
144 5% 70%  
145 6% 65%  
146 5% 59%  
147 7% 53% Median
148 6% 46%  
149 5% 40%  
150 5% 36%  
151 5% 31%  
152 5% 26%  
153 4% 21% Last Result
154 3% 17%  
155 3% 14%  
156 2% 11%  
157 2% 9%  
158 1.3% 7%  
159 1.0% 5%  
160 1.3% 4%  
161 0.9% 3%  
162 0.6% 2%  
163 0.5% 2%  
164 0.4% 1.1%  
165 0.2% 0.7%  
166 0.2% 0.5%  
167 0.1% 0.4%  
168 0.1% 0.2%  
169 0.1% 0.2%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.8%  
127 0.1% 99.7%  
128 0.3% 99.6%  
129 0.5% 99.3%  
130 0.6% 98.8%  
131 1.1% 98%  
132 2% 97%  
133 1.4% 96%  
134 2% 94%  
135 1.2% 92%  
136 1.1% 91%  
137 2% 90%  
138 2% 88%  
139 4% 86%  
140 7% 83%  
141 9% 75%  
142 8% 67%  
143 7% 58%  
144 6% 51% Median
145 5% 46%  
146 3% 40%  
147 3% 37%  
148 3% 34%  
149 4% 31%  
150 4% 27%  
151 5% 23%  
152 6% 17%  
153 3% 12%  
154 2% 9%  
155 1.1% 7%  
156 0.6% 6%  
157 0.6% 5%  
158 0.9% 4%  
159 0.8% 3%  
160 0.8% 3%  
161 0.6% 2%  
162 0.5% 1.2%  
163 0.3% 0.7%  
164 0.2% 0.4%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 0.5% 99.3% Last Result
81 0.7% 98.8%  
82 0.8% 98%  
83 1.2% 97%  
84 3% 96%  
85 2% 93%  
86 4% 91%  
87 4% 87%  
88 4% 83%  
89 5% 79%  
90 7% 74%  
91 7% 67%  
92 6% 60%  
93 6% 55% Median
94 4% 48%  
95 8% 44%  
96 5% 36%  
97 5% 31%  
98 7% 26%  
99 4% 19%  
100 4% 15%  
101 3% 11%  
102 2% 8%  
103 2% 6%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 0.4% 1.2%  
108 0.2% 0.7%  
109 0.2% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 0.6% 99.1%  
67 0.8% 98%  
68 1.4% 98%  
69 2% 96%  
70 3% 95%  
71 3% 92%  
72 4% 89%  
73 5% 86%  
74 5% 81%  
75 6% 76%  
76 7% 70%  
77 7% 63%  
78 8% 56% Median
79 9% 48%  
80 8% 39%  
81 7% 30%  
82 5% 23%  
83 6% 18%  
84 3% 13%  
85 3% 9%  
86 2% 6%  
87 1.5% 5%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 0.3% 1.1%  
92 0.3% 0.7%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.5% 99.5%  
45 1.0% 99.0%  
46 1.5% 98%  
47 2% 96%  
48 3% 94%  
49 5% 91%  
50 5% 86%  
51 7% 81%  
52 8% 74%  
53 7% 66%  
54 9% 59%  
55 10% 50% Median
56 8% 40%  
57 7% 33%  
58 6% 26%  
59 6% 20%  
60 4% 14%  
61 3% 10%  
62 2% 6%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.1% 3%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.0%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.7%  
29 1.0% 99.3%  
30 2% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 6% 93%  
33 7% 87%  
34 8% 79%  
35 11% 71%  
36 12% 60% Median
37 10% 49%  
38 9% 39%  
39 9% 30%  
40 6% 21%  
41 5% 15%  
42 3% 9%  
43 2% 6%  
44 2% 4%  
45 0.9% 2%  
46 0.6% 1.2% Last Result
47 0.3% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 482 100% 474–495 471–497 469–499 463–503
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 429 100% 418–440 416–443 413–445 408–451
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 422 100% 411–432 408–436 405–438 400–443
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 395 100% 385–406 382–409 379–411 373–417
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 356 60% 346–367 343–370 340–373 334–378
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 353 40% 342–363 339–366 336–369 331–375
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 335 2% 325–348 323–351 320–353 315–358
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 327 0.1% 319–340 316–343 312–345 306–350
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 302 0% 292–312 288–315 286–318 280–324
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 275 0% 264–285 261–288 258–291 253–297
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 259 0% 250–269 247–272 243–275 238–281
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 241 0% 230–251 227–254 224–257 220–262
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 201 0% 192–212 189–215 187–217 182–222

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
456 0% 100%  
457 0% 99.9%  
458 0% 99.9%  
459 0.1% 99.9%  
460 0.1% 99.8%  
461 0.1% 99.7%  
462 0.1% 99.6%  
463 0.2% 99.5%  
464 0.2% 99.3%  
465 0.2% 99.1%  
466 0.2% 98.9% Last Result
467 0.4% 98.6%  
468 0.5% 98%  
469 0.9% 98%  
470 0.9% 97%  
471 2% 96%  
472 1.4% 94%  
473 2% 93%  
474 4% 90%  
475 4% 86%  
476 4% 82%  
477 4% 78%  
478 5% 74%  
479 7% 70%  
480 7% 63%  
481 5% 56% Median
482 5% 51%  
483 3% 46%  
484 4% 43%  
485 3% 39%  
486 3% 36%  
487 2% 33%  
488 2% 30%  
489 3% 28%  
490 3% 25%  
491 3% 22%  
492 2% 19%  
493 4% 17%  
494 2% 13%  
495 3% 11%  
496 2% 8%  
497 2% 6%  
498 1.3% 5%  
499 1.1% 3%  
500 0.8% 2%  
501 0.4% 1.4%  
502 0.4% 1.0%  
503 0.3% 0.7%  
504 0.1% 0.4%  
505 0.1% 0.3%  
506 0.1% 0.2%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.8%  
407 0.2% 99.7%  
408 0.2% 99.5%  
409 0.2% 99.3%  
410 0.2% 99.1%  
411 0.5% 98.9%  
412 0.7% 98%  
413 0.6% 98%  
414 0.8% 97%  
415 0.8% 96%  
416 1.1% 95%  
417 1.4% 94%  
418 3% 93%  
419 2% 90%  
420 1.1% 88%  
421 2% 87%  
422 3% 84%  
423 6% 81%  
424 4% 75%  
425 3% 71%  
426 2% 69%  
427 8% 67% Median
428 7% 59%  
429 5% 53%  
430 4% 47%  
431 3% 43%  
432 4% 41%  
433 8% 37%  
434 4% 29%  
435 4% 25%  
436 1.5% 21%  
437 3% 19%  
438 2% 16%  
439 4% 14%  
440 2% 10%  
441 1.3% 8%  
442 1.1% 7%  
443 1.3% 6%  
444 1.1% 5%  
445 1.0% 3%  
446 0.5% 2%  
447 0.4% 2%  
448 0.5% 2%  
449 0.3% 1.0%  
450 0.2% 0.7%  
451 0.2% 0.6%  
452 0.1% 0.4%  
453 0.1% 0.3%  
454 0.1% 0.2%  
455 0.1% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0.1% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.8%  
399 0.1% 99.7%  
400 0.2% 99.6%  
401 0.2% 99.4%  
402 0.3% 99.2%  
403 0.3% 98.9%  
404 0.5% 98.6%  
405 0.5% 98%  
406 1.0% 97%  
407 0.7% 96%  
408 1.4% 96%  
409 2% 94%  
410 2% 93%  
411 2% 91%  
412 2% 88%  
413 2% 86%  
414 3% 84%  
415 4% 80%  
416 3% 76%  
417 3% 73%  
418 5% 70%  
419 4% 65%  
420 5% 61% Median
421 3% 56%  
422 7% 53%  
423 3% 46%  
424 5% 43%  
425 5% 38%  
426 4% 33%  
427 4% 29%  
428 4% 25%  
429 3% 21%  
430 4% 18%  
431 2% 15%  
432 2% 12%  
433 2% 10%  
434 2% 8%  
435 1.0% 6%  
436 1.5% 5%  
437 0.8% 4%  
438 0.6% 3%  
439 0.6% 2%  
440 0.5% 2%  
441 0.3% 1.2%  
442 0.3% 0.9%  
443 0.2% 0.7%  
444 0.1% 0.5%  
445 0.1% 0.3%  
446 0.1% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.7%  
373 0.1% 99.6%  
374 0.1% 99.5%  
375 0.3% 99.4%  
376 0.4% 99.1%  
377 0.4% 98.7%  
378 0.4% 98%  
379 0.9% 98%  
380 0.7% 97%  
381 0.9% 96%  
382 1.2% 95%  
383 2% 94%  
384 2% 92%  
385 2% 91%  
386 3% 88%  
387 3% 86%  
388 3% 83%  
389 4% 80%  
390 3% 76%  
391 5% 72%  
392 4% 67%  
393 6% 64%  
394 4% 58% Median
395 6% 54%  
396 4% 49%  
397 6% 45%  
398 5% 39%  
399 4% 33%  
400 5% 30%  
401 4% 25%  
402 3% 21%  
403 3% 17%  
404 2% 15%  
405 2% 13%  
406 2% 10%  
407 2% 8%  
408 1.4% 7%  
409 1.0% 5%  
410 0.9% 4%  
411 0.7% 3%  
412 0.6% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.4% 1.4%  
415 0.2% 1.0%  
416 0.2% 0.8%  
417 0.1% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.2% 99.6%  
335 0.2% 99.5%  
336 0.3% 99.3%  
337 0.3% 99.0%  
338 0.4% 98.7%  
339 0.6% 98%  
340 0.7% 98%  
341 0.6% 97%  
342 1.1% 96%  
343 1.3% 95%  
344 1.5% 94%  
345 2% 93%  
346 2% 91%  
347 3% 89%  
348 2% 86%  
349 3% 84%  
350 3% 81%  
351 4% 78%  
352 4% 74%  
353 6% 69%  
354 4% 64%  
355 6% 60% Majority
356 5% 54% Median
357 6% 49%  
358 5% 43%  
359 5% 38%  
360 4% 33%  
361 5% 30%  
362 2% 25%  
363 4% 23%  
364 4% 18%  
365 2% 15%  
366 2% 13%  
367 2% 11%  
368 2% 9%  
369 1.0% 7%  
370 1.5% 6%  
371 0.8% 4%  
372 0.6% 3%  
373 0.6% 3%  
374 0.5% 2%  
375 0.5% 2%  
376 0.4% 1.3%  
377 0.3% 1.0%  
378 0.2% 0.7%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.9%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.1% 99.7%  
330 0.1% 99.6%  
331 0.2% 99.5%  
332 0.3% 99.3%  
333 0.4% 99.0%  
334 0.5% 98.7%  
335 0.5% 98%  
336 0.6% 98%  
337 0.6% 97%  
338 0.8% 97%  
339 1.5% 96%  
340 1.0% 94%  
341 2% 93%  
342 2% 91%  
343 2% 89%  
344 2% 87%  
345 4% 85%  
346 4% 82%  
347 2% 77%  
348 5% 75%  
349 4% 70%  
350 5% 67%  
351 5% 62% Median
352 6% 57%  
353 5% 51%  
354 6% 46%  
355 4% 40% Majority
356 6% 36%  
357 4% 31%  
358 4% 26%  
359 3% 22%  
360 3% 19%  
361 2% 16%  
362 3% 14%  
363 2% 11%  
364 2% 9%  
365 1.5% 7%  
366 1.3% 6%  
367 1.1% 5%  
368 0.6% 4%  
369 0.7% 3%  
370 0.6% 2%  
371 0.4% 2%  
372 0.3% 1.3%  
373 0.3% 1.0%  
374 0.2% 0.7%  
375 0.2% 0.5%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
314 0.1% 99.6%  
315 0.2% 99.5%  
316 0.2% 99.4%  
317 0.3% 99.2%  
318 0.5% 98.8%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 0.6% 98%  
321 0.8% 97%  
322 1.3% 96%  
323 2% 95%  
324 1.4% 94%  
325 3% 92%  
326 2% 90%  
327 4% 87%  
328 5% 84%  
329 3% 79%  
330 4% 76%  
331 4% 72%  
332 6% 68%  
333 5% 62%  
334 4% 57% Median
335 5% 53%  
336 4% 48%  
337 3% 44%  
338 4% 41%  
339 3% 37%  
340 3% 33%  
341 3% 30%  
342 3% 27%  
343 3% 25%  
344 2% 21%  
345 4% 19%  
346 2% 15%  
347 2% 13%  
348 2% 11%  
349 2% 9%  
350 1.3% 7%  
351 2% 6%  
352 1.1% 4%  
353 0.7% 3%  
354 0.5% 2%  
355 0.6% 2% Majority
356 0.4% 1.2%  
357 0.3% 0.8%  
358 0.2% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.2% 99.5%  
308 0.2% 99.3%  
309 0.3% 99.1%  
310 0.4% 98.8%  
311 0.3% 98%  
312 0.6% 98%  
313 0.5% 97%  
314 0.7% 97%  
315 1.0% 96%  
316 2% 95%  
317 2% 94%  
318 2% 92%  
319 4% 90%  
320 4% 87%  
321 5% 83%  
322 2% 78%  
323 7% 76%  
324 6% 69%  
325 4% 63%  
326 3% 59%  
327 6% 56% Median
328 4% 49%  
329 3% 45%  
330 4% 42%  
331 3% 38%  
332 4% 35%  
333 2% 32%  
334 3% 29%  
335 2% 26%  
336 5% 24%  
337 2% 19%  
338 3% 18%  
339 3% 15%  
340 3% 11%  
341 1.4% 9%  
342 1.4% 7%  
343 2% 6%  
344 0.8% 3%  
345 0.7% 3%  
346 0.5% 2%  
347 0.6% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.0%  
349 0.2% 0.8%  
350 0.1% 0.6%  
351 0.1% 0.5%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.2% 99.6%  
281 0.2% 99.5%  
282 0.3% 99.3%  
283 0.3% 99.0%  
284 0.4% 98.7%  
285 0.5% 98%  
286 0.9% 98%  
287 0.7% 97%  
288 1.3% 96%  
289 1.3% 95%  
290 2% 94%  
291 2% 92%  
292 3% 90%  
293 2% 87%  
294 3% 85%  
295 4% 82%  
296 5% 78%  
297 2% 73%  
298 4% 71%  
299 6% 67%  
300 4% 61%  
301 6% 57% Median
302 5% 51%  
303 6% 47%  
304 4% 41%  
305 6% 37%  
306 3% 31%  
307 4% 28%  
308 3% 24%  
309 3% 20%  
310 3% 17%  
311 2% 14%  
312 3% 12%  
313 2% 9%  
314 2% 8%  
315 1.0% 6%  
316 1.0% 5%  
317 0.8% 4%  
318 0.7% 3%  
319 0.4% 2%  
320 0.4% 2%  
321 0.3% 1.5%  
322 0.4% 1.2%  
323 0.2% 0.8%  
324 0.2% 0.6%  
325 0.1% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.3%  
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.2% 99.6%  
254 0.3% 99.4%  
255 0.3% 99.1%  
256 0.4% 98.9%  
257 0.5% 98%  
258 0.6% 98%  
259 1.1% 97%  
260 0.6% 96%  
261 1.1% 96%  
262 2% 95%  
263 1.0% 93%  
264 3% 92%  
265 2% 89%  
266 3% 87%  
267 2% 84%  
268 4% 81%  
269 2% 78%  
270 5% 75%  
271 4% 70%  
272 6% 67%  
273 5% 60% Median
274 5% 56%  
275 6% 51%  
276 4% 45%  
277 3% 40%  
278 6% 37%  
279 4% 31%  
280 4% 27%  
281 3% 23%  
282 3% 19%  
283 2% 16%  
284 3% 14%  
285 2% 11%  
286 2% 9%  
287 1.4% 8%  
288 1.3% 6%  
289 1.2% 5%  
290 0.8% 4%  
291 0.7% 3%  
292 0.5% 2%  
293 0.4% 2%  
294 0.4% 1.3%  
295 0.3% 1.0%  
296 0.2% 0.7%  
297 0.2% 0.5%  
298 0.1% 0.3%  
299 0.1% 0.3%  
300 0.1% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.7%  
238 0.2% 99.6%  
239 0.2% 99.4%  
240 0.3% 99.2%  
241 0.4% 98.9%  
242 0.5% 98%  
243 0.5% 98%  
244 0.8% 97%  
245 0.6% 97%  
246 0.9% 96%  
247 1.3% 95%  
248 1.2% 94%  
249 2% 93%  
250 2% 91%  
251 3% 89%  
252 3% 86%  
253 4% 83%  
254 5% 79%  
255 4% 74%  
256 5% 71%  
257 7% 66%  
258 6% 59% Median
259 5% 53%  
260 5% 47%  
261 5% 42%  
262 5% 37%  
263 5% 32%  
264 4% 27%  
265 4% 23%  
266 3% 20%  
267 2% 16%  
268 3% 14%  
269 2% 11%  
270 2% 9%  
271 1.4% 7%  
272 0.9% 6%  
273 1.0% 5%  
274 1.0% 4%  
275 0.7% 3%  
276 0.4% 2%  
277 0.4% 2%  
278 0.4% 1.5%  
279 0.3% 1.1%  
280 0.2% 0.8%  
281 0.2% 0.6%  
282 0.1% 0.4%  
283 0.1% 0.3%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.8%  
219 0.1% 99.7%  
220 0.2% 99.6%  
221 0.2% 99.4%  
222 0.4% 99.2%  
223 0.4% 98.8%  
224 0.9% 98%  
225 0.7% 97%  
226 1.0% 97%  
227 1.0% 96%  
228 2% 95%  
229 2% 93%  
230 3% 91%  
231 2% 89%  
232 3% 86%  
233 3% 84% Last Result
234 3% 80%  
235 5% 77%  
236 3% 72%  
237 6% 69%  
238 4% 63%  
239 5% 59%  
240 4% 54% Median
241 6% 50%  
242 4% 44%  
243 4% 40%  
244 4% 36%  
245 4% 32%  
246 5% 28%  
247 4% 23%  
248 4% 19%  
249 1.4% 15%  
250 3% 14%  
251 2% 11%  
252 2% 9%  
253 2% 7%  
254 1.4% 6%  
255 0.8% 4%  
256 0.8% 4%  
257 0.6% 3%  
258 0.6% 2%  
259 0.5% 1.5%  
260 0.2% 1.0%  
261 0.3% 0.8%  
262 0.1% 0.5%  
263 0.1% 0.4%  
264 0.1% 0.3%  
265 0.1% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.7%  
182 0.1% 99.6%  
183 0.3% 99.5%  
184 0.5% 99.2%  
185 0.4% 98.8%  
186 0.6% 98%  
187 1.0% 98%  
188 0.8% 97%  
189 1.2% 96%  
190 2% 95%  
191 1.5% 93%  
192 3% 91%  
193 3% 89%  
194 3% 86%  
195 3% 83%  
196 5% 80%  
197 4% 75%  
198 5% 71%  
199 5% 66%  
200 5% 61%  
201 7% 56%  
202 5% 49% Median
203 4% 44%  
204 4% 40%  
205 5% 36%  
206 5% 32%  
207 5% 27%  
208 5% 22%  
209 3% 17%  
210 2% 15%  
211 2% 12%  
212 1.4% 10%  
213 1.1% 9%  
214 2% 8%  
215 1.4% 5%  
216 0.8% 4%  
217 1.0% 3%  
218 0.4% 2%  
219 0.3% 2%  
220 0.4% 1.2%  
221 0.2% 0.9%  
222 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
223 0.1% 0.4%  
224 0.1% 0.3%  
225 0.1% 0.2%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations