Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 6–9 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.0% 18.8–22.3% 18.3–22.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.5–19.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.5–19.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.2–14.0% 10.8–14.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.5% 10.7–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.4%
Freie Wähler 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 159 150–167 148–170 146–172 142–177
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 136 128–144 126–146 124–148 120–152
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 127–144 125–146 124–148 120–153
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 97 90–104 88–107 86–108 83–112
Alternative für Deutschland 94 90 82–96 81–98 79–100 76–104
Die Linke 69 51 45–56 44–58 43–59 41–62
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 42 37–47 36–48 35–50 33–52
Freie Wähler 0 0 0 0 0 0

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.7%  
142 0.4% 99.6%  
143 0.2% 99.2%  
144 0.6% 99.0%  
145 0.4% 98%  
146 0.8% 98%  
147 0.8% 97%  
148 2% 96%  
149 2% 94%  
150 3% 92%  
151 4% 89%  
152 4% 85%  
153 3% 81%  
154 6% 78%  
155 4% 72%  
156 7% 68%  
157 5% 62%  
158 6% 56%  
159 3% 50% Median
160 12% 48%  
161 5% 36%  
162 5% 31%  
163 3% 26%  
164 6% 23%  
165 2% 17%  
166 5% 15%  
167 2% 10%  
168 2% 9%  
169 2% 7%  
170 2% 5%  
171 0.7% 3%  
172 0.8% 3%  
173 0.5% 2%  
174 0.3% 1.4%  
175 0.4% 1.1%  
176 0.2% 0.8%  
177 0.2% 0.5%  
178 0.1% 0.3%  
179 0.1% 0.3%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.1% 99.7%  
120 0.3% 99.6%  
121 0.4% 99.3%  
122 0.5% 98.9%  
123 0.7% 98%  
124 1.0% 98%  
125 1.3% 97%  
126 2% 95%  
127 2% 93%  
128 3% 91%  
129 5% 88%  
130 3% 83%  
131 4% 80%  
132 5% 76%  
133 4% 71%  
134 7% 66%  
135 9% 60%  
136 6% 51% Median
137 7% 46%  
138 7% 39%  
139 4% 32%  
140 6% 28%  
141 4% 22%  
142 3% 18%  
143 4% 15%  
144 2% 11%  
145 2% 9%  
146 2% 7%  
147 1.4% 5%  
148 1.1% 3%  
149 0.7% 2%  
150 0.4% 2%  
151 0.4% 1.2%  
152 0.3% 0.8%  
153 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.7%  
120 0.3% 99.6%  
121 0.4% 99.3%  
122 0.6% 98.9%  
123 0.7% 98%  
124 2% 98%  
125 1.2% 96%  
126 2% 95%  
127 2% 92%  
128 4% 90%  
129 3% 86%  
130 4% 83%  
131 6% 79%  
132 6% 73%  
133 6% 67%  
134 4% 61%  
135 7% 57% Median
136 7% 49%  
137 5% 42%  
138 4% 37%  
139 5% 33%  
140 6% 28%  
141 4% 22%  
142 4% 18%  
143 2% 14%  
144 3% 12%  
145 2% 9%  
146 2% 6%  
147 2% 4%  
148 0.5% 3%  
149 1.0% 2%  
150 0.5% 1.4%  
151 0.3% 1.0%  
152 0.2% 0.7%  
153 0.2% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 0.3% 99.4%  
85 0.8% 99.1%  
86 0.9% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 1.3% 96%  
89 4% 94%  
90 2% 90%  
91 4% 88%  
92 6% 84%  
93 4% 79%  
94 6% 75%  
95 8% 69%  
96 8% 60%  
97 9% 52% Median
98 6% 43%  
99 7% 37%  
100 5% 30%  
101 7% 25%  
102 3% 18%  
103 3% 15%  
104 4% 12%  
105 1.5% 9%  
106 2% 7%  
107 2% 5%  
108 2% 4%  
109 0.6% 2%  
110 0.4% 1.4%  
111 0.5% 1.0%  
112 0.3% 0.5%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.4% 99.7%  
77 0.3% 99.3%  
78 0.7% 99.0%  
79 1.2% 98%  
80 1.5% 97%  
81 2% 96%  
82 3% 93%  
83 5% 90%  
84 4% 85%  
85 5% 81%  
86 4% 75%  
87 6% 71%  
88 8% 65%  
89 6% 56%  
90 8% 50% Median
91 10% 42%  
92 5% 33%  
93 7% 28%  
94 5% 21% Last Result
95 5% 17%  
96 3% 12%  
97 3% 9%  
98 2% 6%  
99 1.3% 4%  
100 1.1% 3%  
101 0.7% 2%  
102 0.3% 1.3%  
103 0.3% 1.0%  
104 0.3% 0.7%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.5% 99.6%  
42 1.2% 99.1%  
43 2% 98%  
44 3% 96%  
45 3% 92%  
46 6% 89%  
47 6% 83%  
48 7% 78%  
49 6% 70%  
50 10% 65%  
51 9% 55% Median
52 7% 46%  
53 12% 39%  
54 7% 26%  
55 4% 19%  
56 6% 15%  
57 3% 9%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.3% 3%  
60 0.6% 2%  
61 0.3% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.5% 99.7%  
34 1.0% 99.2%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96%  
37 4% 93%  
38 5% 89%  
39 10% 83%  
40 8% 73%  
41 12% 65%  
42 14% 53% Median
43 9% 40%  
44 10% 31%  
45 5% 21%  
46 6% 17% Last Result
47 4% 11%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 5%  
50 1.2% 3%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.3% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 471 100% 462–482 459–485 457–487 452–492
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 432 100% 423–443 421–446 418–449 413–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 433 100% 422–443 420–447 417–449 413–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 386 100% 378–397 374–400 370–404 366–408
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 368 96% 358–378 356–382 352–384 347–390
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 336 1.4% 325–347 323–350 320–353 316–357
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 336 1.2% 327–346 323–349 321–352 316–357
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 323 0% 312–331 309–335 305–338 301–343
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 297 0% 287–307 285–310 283–313 278–319
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 290 0% 280–300 277–304 274–306 269–310
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 262–282 258–284 256–286 251–292
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 232 0% 224–242 221–245 218–248 213–253
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 187 0% 178–195 175–197 172–201 167–205

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 99.9%  
448 0% 99.9%  
449 0% 99.9%  
450 0% 99.8%  
451 0.1% 99.8%  
452 0.2% 99.7%  
453 0.2% 99.5%  
454 0.5% 99.2%  
455 0.5% 98.7%  
456 0.5% 98%  
457 0.7% 98%  
458 0.5% 97%  
459 2% 96%  
460 2% 95%  
461 1.0% 93%  
462 3% 92%  
463 4% 89%  
464 3% 84%  
465 4% 81%  
466 4% 78% Last Result
467 2% 74%  
468 4% 72%  
469 2% 68%  
470 8% 65%  
471 8% 57%  
472 6% 49% Median
473 3% 43%  
474 5% 40%  
475 3% 35%  
476 3% 32%  
477 2% 29%  
478 6% 27%  
479 4% 21%  
480 4% 16%  
481 1.0% 12%  
482 3% 11%  
483 1.2% 8%  
484 1.3% 7%  
485 1.5% 5%  
486 0.9% 4%  
487 0.7% 3%  
488 0.8% 2%  
489 0.5% 2%  
490 0.3% 1.0%  
491 0.2% 0.7%  
492 0.1% 0.5%  
493 0.1% 0.4%  
494 0.1% 0.3%  
495 0.1% 0.3%  
496 0% 0.2%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0.1%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.8%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.2% 99.7%  
413 0.1% 99.5%  
414 0.2% 99.4%  
415 0.3% 99.2%  
416 0.4% 98.9%  
417 0.9% 98%  
418 0.4% 98%  
419 1.0% 97%  
420 0.9% 96%  
421 2% 95%  
422 2% 93%  
423 2% 92%  
424 3% 90%  
425 4% 87%  
426 4% 83%  
427 4% 79%  
428 3% 75%  
429 5% 72%  
430 5% 66%  
431 3% 61%  
432 9% 59%  
433 4% 50% Median
434 7% 46%  
435 2% 39%  
436 7% 37%  
437 4% 30%  
438 3% 26%  
439 3% 23%  
440 3% 19%  
441 2% 16%  
442 2% 14%  
443 2% 11%  
444 2% 10%  
445 2% 8%  
446 1.4% 6%  
447 1.2% 5%  
448 0.9% 3%  
449 0.8% 3%  
450 0.4% 2%  
451 0.4% 1.4%  
452 0.3% 1.0%  
453 0.2% 0.7%  
454 0.2% 0.6%  
455 0.1% 0.4%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0.1% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.2% 99.7%  
413 0.1% 99.6%  
414 0.4% 99.4%  
415 0.1% 99.0%  
416 0.9% 98.8%  
417 0.6% 98%  
418 1.2% 97%  
419 1.0% 96%  
420 1.2% 95%  
421 2% 94%  
422 2% 92%  
423 1.3% 90%  
424 3% 88%  
425 2% 85%  
426 3% 83%  
427 3% 80%  
428 3% 77%  
429 5% 74%  
430 5% 70%  
431 7% 65%  
432 6% 58%  
433 4% 52%  
434 5% 48% Median
435 5% 43%  
436 6% 39%  
437 4% 33%  
438 3% 29%  
439 4% 26%  
440 4% 22%  
441 3% 18%  
442 2% 15%  
443 4% 13%  
444 1.1% 9%  
445 2% 8%  
446 0.8% 6%  
447 2% 5%  
448 0.7% 3%  
449 0.6% 3%  
450 0.4% 2%  
451 0.5% 2%  
452 0.4% 1.1%  
453 0.2% 0.8%  
454 0.2% 0.6%  
455 0.1% 0.4%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.2% 99.7%  
366 0.3% 99.5%  
367 0.1% 99.3%  
368 0.4% 99.1%  
369 0.2% 98.7%  
370 1.1% 98.5%  
371 0.6% 97%  
372 0.7% 97%  
373 0.5% 96%  
374 2% 96%  
375 1.5% 94%  
376 0.9% 92%  
377 1.2% 91%  
378 5% 90%  
379 2% 85%  
380 2% 83%  
381 5% 81%  
382 6% 77%  
383 3% 70%  
384 6% 68%  
385 7% 61%  
386 6% 54%  
387 5% 49%  
388 4% 43% Median
389 7% 40%  
390 4% 33%  
391 6% 29%  
392 2% 23%  
393 3% 21%  
394 3% 18%  
395 1.1% 15%  
396 4% 14%  
397 2% 11%  
398 0.9% 9%  
399 1.5% 8%  
400 2% 6%  
401 0.7% 5%  
402 0.9% 4%  
403 0.6% 3%  
404 0.8% 3%  
405 0.6% 2%  
406 0.2% 1.2%  
407 0.2% 1.0%  
408 0.4% 0.8%  
409 0% 0.4%  
410 0.2% 0.4%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.6%  
348 0.3% 99.5%  
349 0.3% 99.2%  
350 0.2% 98.9%  
351 0.8% 98.6%  
352 0.6% 98%  
353 0.7% 97%  
354 0.5% 97%  
355 0.9% 96% Majority
356 2% 95%  
357 2% 93%  
358 1.4% 91%  
359 3% 90%  
360 2% 87%  
361 4% 85%  
362 3% 81%  
363 3% 78%  
364 4% 75%  
365 3% 71%  
366 7% 67%  
367 8% 61%  
368 6% 53% Median
369 5% 47%  
370 4% 42%  
371 4% 38%  
372 4% 34%  
373 3% 30%  
374 5% 27%  
375 5% 22%  
376 2% 17%  
377 4% 15%  
378 2% 11%  
379 1.4% 9%  
380 0.8% 7%  
381 1.2% 7%  
382 1.2% 5%  
383 1.4% 4%  
384 0.4% 3%  
385 0.8% 2%  
386 0.3% 2%  
387 0.5% 1.3%  
388 0.1% 0.8%  
389 0.1% 0.7%  
390 0.1% 0.6%  
391 0.1% 0.5%  
392 0.2% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0.3% 99.6%  
317 0.3% 99.3%  
318 0.3% 99.0%  
319 0.7% 98.8%  
320 0.7% 98%  
321 0.8% 97%  
322 0.7% 97%  
323 3% 96%  
324 1.4% 93%  
325 2% 92%  
326 2% 90%  
327 2% 87%  
328 3% 85%  
329 3% 83%  
330 4% 80%  
331 5% 76%  
332 5% 71%  
333 3% 66%  
334 6% 64%  
335 5% 58%  
336 3% 52%  
337 4% 49% Median
338 6% 46%  
339 6% 40%  
340 5% 34%  
341 2% 29%  
342 3% 27%  
343 5% 24%  
344 3% 20%  
345 2% 17%  
346 3% 14%  
347 0.9% 11%  
348 3% 10%  
349 1.5% 7%  
350 1.0% 5%  
351 0.8% 4%  
352 0.7% 3%  
353 0.5% 3%  
354 0.7% 2%  
355 0.5% 1.4% Majority
356 0.3% 1.0%  
357 0.2% 0.7%  
358 0.1% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
314 0.1% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0.1% 99.6%  
317 0.5% 99.4%  
318 0.2% 98.9%  
319 0.5% 98.7%  
320 0.7% 98%  
321 0.6% 98%  
322 0.9% 97%  
323 2% 96%  
324 2% 94%  
325 2% 93%  
326 0.9% 91%  
327 4% 90%  
328 4% 86%  
329 4% 82%  
330 3% 78%  
331 4% 76%  
332 6% 72%  
333 5% 66%  
334 4% 62%  
335 7% 58%  
336 5% 51% Median
337 3% 46%  
338 6% 43%  
339 5% 37%  
340 3% 32%  
341 5% 29%  
342 3% 24%  
343 3% 20%  
344 3% 17%  
345 3% 14%  
346 1.0% 11%  
347 2% 10%  
348 2% 8%  
349 1.4% 6%  
350 1.0% 5%  
351 0.8% 4%  
352 0.8% 3%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.5% 2%  
355 0.3% 1.2% Majority
356 0.3% 0.8%  
357 0.1% 0.5%  
358 0.1% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0.2% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.6%  
301 0.4% 99.6%  
302 0.2% 99.2%  
303 0.2% 99.0%  
304 0.6% 98.8%  
305 0.8% 98%  
306 0.6% 97%  
307 0.9% 97%  
308 0.7% 96%  
309 2% 95%  
310 1.5% 94%  
311 0.9% 92%  
312 2% 91%  
313 4% 89%  
314 1.1% 86%  
315 3% 85%  
316 3% 82%  
317 2% 79%  
318 6% 77%  
319 4% 71%  
320 7% 67%  
321 4% 60%  
322 5% 57% Median
323 6% 51%  
324 7% 46%  
325 6% 38%  
326 3% 32%  
327 6% 30%  
328 5% 23%  
329 2% 19%  
330 2% 17%  
331 5% 15%  
332 1.2% 10%  
333 0.9% 9%  
334 1.5% 8%  
335 2% 6%  
336 0.5% 4%  
337 0.7% 4%  
338 0.6% 3%  
339 1.1% 2%  
340 0.2% 1.4%  
341 0.4% 1.3%  
342 0.1% 0.8%  
343 0.3% 0.7%  
344 0.2% 0.4%  
345 0.1% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0.3% 99.5%  
279 0.3% 99.2%  
280 0.4% 98.9%  
281 0.6% 98.6%  
282 0.4% 98%  
283 1.1% 98%  
284 1.4% 96%  
285 0.8% 95%  
286 2% 94%  
287 3% 92%  
288 2% 89%  
289 4% 87%  
290 3% 83%  
291 2% 80%  
292 5% 79%  
293 5% 74%  
294 6% 68%  
295 4% 63%  
296 5% 59%  
297 6% 54%  
298 7% 48% Median
299 4% 41%  
300 2% 37%  
301 6% 34%  
302 2% 28%  
303 3% 26%  
304 4% 23%  
305 3% 19%  
306 2% 16%  
307 4% 14%  
308 2% 10%  
309 2% 8%  
310 1.4% 6%  
311 0.8% 5%  
312 1.1% 4%  
313 0.7% 3%  
314 0.7% 2%  
315 0.5% 2%  
316 0.2% 1.2%  
317 0.3% 1.0%  
318 0.1% 0.7%  
319 0.2% 0.5%  
320 0.1% 0.4%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0.1% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Last Result
327 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.2% 99.7%  
270 0.5% 99.5%  
271 0.1% 99.0%  
272 0.4% 98.9%  
273 0.1% 98.5%  
274 1.3% 98%  
275 1.5% 97%  
276 0.2% 96%  
277 0.5% 95%  
278 2% 95%  
279 2% 93%  
280 2% 92%  
281 0.4% 90%  
282 7% 90%  
283 3% 83%  
284 2% 80%  
285 5% 78%  
286 5% 72%  
287 4% 67%  
288 2% 63%  
289 7% 61%  
290 16% 54%  
291 2% 38% Median
292 2% 36%  
293 1.1% 34%  
294 7% 33%  
295 9% 25%  
296 0.7% 17%  
297 3% 16%  
298 0.7% 14%  
299 3% 13%  
300 2% 10%  
301 0.5% 9%  
302 2% 8%  
303 0.2% 6%  
304 1.2% 5%  
305 2% 4%  
306 0.3% 3%  
307 0.5% 2%  
308 0% 2%  
309 0.7% 2%  
310 0.7% 1.1%  
311 0% 0.4%  
312 0% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0.1% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.2% 99.7%  
251 0.2% 99.5%  
252 0.2% 99.3%  
253 0.3% 99.1%  
254 0.3% 98.8%  
255 0.7% 98.5%  
256 0.9% 98%  
257 0.9% 97%  
258 1.4% 96%  
259 2% 95%  
260 1.0% 93%  
261 2% 92%  
262 3% 91%  
263 3% 88%  
264 4% 85%  
265 5% 81%  
266 3% 76%  
267 3% 73%  
268 5% 71%  
269 4% 66%  
270 5% 62%  
271 9% 57% Median
272 4% 48%  
273 5% 44%  
274 4% 38%  
275 4% 35%  
276 4% 31%  
277 8% 27%  
278 4% 19%  
279 2% 16%  
280 2% 13%  
281 1.3% 12%  
282 2% 10%  
283 3% 8%  
284 0.6% 5%  
285 1.2% 5%  
286 1.3% 4%  
287 0.3% 2%  
288 0.4% 2%  
289 0.4% 2%  
290 0.2% 1.3%  
291 0.4% 1.1%  
292 0.4% 0.7%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0.1% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0.3% 99.7%  
214 0.1% 99.4%  
215 0.3% 99.3%  
216 0.4% 99.0%  
217 0.7% 98.5%  
218 0.6% 98%  
219 1.0% 97%  
220 1.1% 96%  
221 2% 95%  
222 1.2% 93%  
223 1.4% 92%  
224 4% 91%  
225 2% 87%  
226 2% 84%  
227 6% 82%  
228 3% 76%  
229 5% 74%  
230 6% 68%  
231 4% 62%  
232 9% 58%  
233 6% 50% Last Result, Median
234 4% 44%  
235 6% 39%  
236 4% 33%  
237 4% 29%  
238 4% 26%  
239 3% 22%  
240 4% 19%  
241 2% 15%  
242 2% 12%  
243 2% 10%  
244 2% 8%  
245 1.4% 6%  
246 2% 5%  
247 0.7% 3%  
248 0.7% 3%  
249 0.6% 2%  
250 0.2% 1.2%  
251 0.3% 1.0%  
252 0.2% 0.7%  
253 0.1% 0.5%  
254 0.2% 0.4%  
255 0.1% 0.2%  
256 0% 0.2%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.7%  
167 0.1% 99.6%  
168 0.1% 99.5%  
169 0.2% 99.4%  
170 0.4% 99.2%  
171 0.7% 98.8%  
172 0.8% 98%  
173 0.9% 97%  
174 0.8% 96%  
175 1.0% 96%  
176 1.5% 95%  
177 2% 93%  
178 2% 91%  
179 3% 89%  
180 4% 86%  
181 5% 81%  
182 3% 77%  
183 4% 74%  
184 3% 70%  
185 6% 67%  
186 10% 61%  
187 6% 51% Median
188 5% 44%  
189 4% 39%  
190 6% 35%  
191 4% 29%  
192 5% 25%  
193 4% 20%  
194 4% 16%  
195 2% 12%  
196 3% 10%  
197 2% 6%  
198 0.8% 5%  
199 0.5% 4%  
200 0.6% 3%  
201 0.8% 3%  
202 0.8% 2%  
203 0.4% 1.1%  
204 0.2% 0.7%  
205 0.1% 0.5%  
206 0.1% 0.4%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0.1% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations