Opinion Poll by Kantar, 4–10 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.7–22.5% 19.3–22.9% 19.0–23.2% 18.4–23.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 19.0% 17.7–20.4% 17.4–20.8% 17.1–21.1% 16.5–21.8%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 17.8% 16.6–19.2% 16.2–19.6% 15.9–19.9% 15.4–20.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.0–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.5–13.8% 10.0–14.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.0–13.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.1% 3.5–4.9% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 162 151–171 148–174 145–177 141–182
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 145 135–155 133–159 131–162 126–166
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 137 127–146 124–150 122–152 118–157
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 92 84–101 82–103 80–105 77–110
Alternative für Deutschland 94 85 77–93 74–95 72–97 69–101
Die Linke 69 54 47–60 46–62 44–64 42–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 35 30–40 29–42 28–43 26–46

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.8%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.7%  
141 0.2% 99.5%  
142 0.4% 99.3%  
143 0.4% 98.9%  
144 0.6% 98.5%  
145 0.9% 98%  
146 0.8% 97%  
147 1.2% 96%  
148 1.3% 95%  
149 2% 94%  
150 2% 92%  
151 2% 90%  
152 2% 88%  
153 3% 85%  
154 3% 83%  
155 3% 80%  
156 4% 76%  
157 5% 73%  
158 4% 68%  
159 4% 64%  
160 5% 60%  
161 5% 55%  
162 4% 50% Median
163 6% 46%  
164 3% 41%  
165 5% 38%  
166 5% 32%  
167 3% 27%  
168 4% 24%  
169 5% 19%  
170 2% 15%  
171 3% 12%  
172 2% 10%  
173 1.3% 7%  
174 1.5% 6%  
175 0.9% 5%  
176 1.0% 4%  
177 0.8% 3%  
178 0.4% 2%  
179 0.4% 2%  
180 0.4% 1.2%  
181 0.2% 0.8%  
182 0.1% 0.5%  
183 0.1% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.7%  
126 0.2% 99.6%  
127 0.2% 99.5%  
128 0.4% 99.3%  
129 0.4% 98.9%  
130 0.6% 98%  
131 0.8% 98%  
132 1.1% 97%  
133 2% 96%  
134 3% 94%  
135 2% 92%  
136 3% 89%  
137 4% 86%  
138 3% 82%  
139 3% 79%  
140 4% 75%  
141 3% 72%  
142 5% 69%  
143 5% 64%  
144 4% 60%  
145 7% 56% Median
146 6% 49%  
147 6% 43%  
148 5% 37%  
149 5% 33%  
150 3% 28%  
151 4% 24%  
152 3% 20%  
153 3% 17% Last Result
154 3% 14%  
155 2% 11%  
156 1.2% 9%  
157 2% 8%  
158 1.2% 7%  
159 0.9% 5%  
160 0.9% 4%  
161 0.7% 4%  
162 0.8% 3%  
163 0.8% 2%  
164 0.3% 1.3%  
165 0.3% 1.0%  
166 0.3% 0.8%  
167 0.1% 0.5%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0.1% 0.2%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.3% 99.5%  
119 0.3% 99.3%  
120 0.4% 98.9%  
121 0.6% 98.6%  
122 0.8% 98%  
123 1.1% 97%  
124 2% 96%  
125 1.4% 95%  
126 2% 93%  
127 2% 91%  
128 3% 89%  
129 3% 85%  
130 3% 83%  
131 5% 80%  
132 5% 75%  
133 4% 70%  
134 5% 66%  
135 4% 61%  
136 6% 57%  
137 6% 51% Median
138 6% 45%  
139 4% 40%  
140 5% 36%  
141 5% 31%  
142 4% 25%  
143 3% 22%  
144 4% 19%  
145 3% 15%  
146 2% 12%  
147 2% 10%  
148 1.3% 8%  
149 1.2% 6%  
150 2% 5%  
151 1.1% 4%  
152 0.6% 3%  
153 0.4% 2%  
154 0.5% 2%  
155 0.4% 1.2%  
156 0.2% 0.8%  
157 0.2% 0.6%  
158 0.1% 0.4%  
159 0.1% 0.3%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.2% 99.7%  
77 0.3% 99.5%  
78 0.5% 99.2%  
79 0.7% 98.7%  
80 1.0% 98% Last Result
81 1.3% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 3% 94%  
84 3% 91%  
85 4% 88%  
86 4% 84%  
87 4% 79%  
88 4% 75%  
89 7% 71%  
90 5% 64%  
91 6% 58%  
92 7% 53% Median
93 6% 46%  
94 5% 40%  
95 5% 35%  
96 5% 30%  
97 4% 25%  
98 4% 21%  
99 4% 17%  
100 3% 13%  
101 3% 10%  
102 1.4% 7%  
103 2% 6%  
104 0.9% 4%  
105 1.1% 3%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 0.7% 2%  
108 0.3% 1.2%  
109 0.3% 0.9%  
110 0.1% 0.6%  
111 0.1% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 0.4% 99.4%  
71 0.7% 98.9%  
72 0.9% 98%  
73 1.2% 97%  
74 1.5% 96%  
75 2% 95%  
76 2% 93%  
77 3% 91%  
78 4% 88%  
79 6% 84%  
80 5% 78%  
81 5% 74%  
82 6% 69%  
83 5% 63%  
84 7% 58%  
85 5% 51% Median
86 6% 45%  
87 7% 39%  
88 6% 33%  
89 5% 26%  
90 4% 22%  
91 4% 18%  
92 3% 14%  
93 3% 11%  
94 2% 8% Last Result
95 2% 6%  
96 1.1% 4%  
97 0.9% 3%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.5% 1.4%  
100 0.2% 0.9%  
101 0.2% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.7%  
42 0.4% 99.5%  
43 0.8% 99.1%  
44 1.3% 98%  
45 1.4% 97%  
46 2% 96%  
47 4% 93%  
48 5% 89%  
49 4% 85%  
50 6% 80%  
51 9% 74%  
52 8% 66%  
53 6% 58%  
54 8% 52% Median
55 8% 44%  
56 6% 36%  
57 6% 29%  
58 5% 23%  
59 5% 18%  
60 4% 14%  
61 2% 10%  
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.0% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.6% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.8%  
26 0.6% 99.6%  
27 1.0% 99.0%  
28 2% 98%  
29 3% 96%  
30 6% 93%  
31 6% 87%  
32 7% 81%  
33 9% 74%  
34 11% 65%  
35 8% 54% Median
36 11% 46%  
37 8% 34%  
38 6% 26%  
39 6% 20%  
40 4% 14%  
41 3% 9%  
42 3% 6%  
43 1.4% 4%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.7% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
47 0.2% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 478 100% 467–490 463–493 460–496 455–502
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 425 100% 413–437 410–440 407–444 400–449
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 407 100% 399–424 396–427 393–429 384–434
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 399 100% 386–411 383–414 380–418 374–424
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 361 73% 348–373 345–376 341–379 335–385
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 348 27% 336–361 333–364 330–368 324–374
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 333 1.2% 321–345 317–349 314–352 308–358
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 317 0% 305–330 302–333 299–337 293–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 308 0% 294–318 291–323 289–327 281–331
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 264 0% 252–276 249–279 246–283 240–289
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 257 0% 245–268 241–272 238–275 233–281
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 236 0% 227–251 224–254 221–257 215–261
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 199 0% 188–211 185–214 183–217 177–222

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
448 0% 100%  
449 0% 99.9%  
450 0% 99.9%  
451 0.1% 99.9%  
452 0.1% 99.8%  
453 0.1% 99.8%  
454 0.1% 99.7%  
455 0.1% 99.6%  
456 0.3% 99.4%  
457 0.3% 99.1%  
458 0.3% 98.8%  
459 0.4% 98%  
460 0.7% 98%  
461 0.8% 97%  
462 1.1% 97%  
463 0.7% 96%  
464 1.1% 95%  
465 1.1% 94%  
466 2% 93% Last Result
467 2% 90%  
468 2% 88%  
469 4% 86%  
470 2% 83%  
471 2% 81%  
472 4% 79%  
473 4% 75%  
474 4% 71%  
475 3% 66%  
476 4% 63%  
477 5% 59%  
478 4% 54%  
479 4% 50% Median
480 4% 46%  
481 3% 41%  
482 5% 38%  
483 3% 33%  
484 5% 30%  
485 3% 25%  
486 3% 22%  
487 3% 19%  
488 2% 16%  
489 3% 14%  
490 2% 11%  
491 1.4% 9%  
492 2% 8%  
493 1.0% 6%  
494 1.0% 5%  
495 0.8% 4%  
496 0.6% 3%  
497 0.6% 2%  
498 0.3% 2%  
499 0.4% 1.3%  
500 0.3% 0.9%  
501 0.2% 0.7%  
502 0.2% 0.5%  
503 0.1% 0.3%  
504 0% 0.3%  
505 0.1% 0.2%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0.1% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.8%  
399 0.1% 99.7%  
400 0.2% 99.6%  
401 0.1% 99.5%  
402 0.2% 99.3%  
403 0.2% 99.1%  
404 0.4% 98.9%  
405 0.4% 98.5%  
406 0.6% 98%  
407 1.1% 98%  
408 0.6% 96%  
409 0.8% 96%  
410 1.4% 95%  
411 1.5% 94%  
412 2% 92%  
413 2% 91%  
414 2% 89%  
415 2% 87%  
416 2% 85%  
417 3% 83%  
418 3% 80%  
419 2% 77%  
420 4% 74%  
421 4% 70%  
422 4% 66%  
423 4% 62%  
424 4% 58%  
425 5% 54%  
426 4% 49% Median
427 4% 44%  
428 3% 40%  
429 3% 37%  
430 5% 33%  
431 3% 29%  
432 3% 26%  
433 3% 22%  
434 3% 19%  
435 2% 16%  
436 2% 13%  
437 2% 11%  
438 1.3% 9%  
439 2% 8%  
440 1.3% 6%  
441 0.7% 5%  
442 0.8% 4%  
443 0.9% 3%  
444 0.6% 3%  
445 0.4% 2%  
446 0.4% 2%  
447 0.3% 1.2%  
448 0.2% 0.9%  
449 0.2% 0.7%  
450 0.1% 0.5%  
451 0.1% 0.4%  
452 0.1% 0.3%  
453 0% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.7%  
384 0.1% 99.6%  
385 0.1% 99.4%  
386 0.2% 99.3%  
387 0.2% 99.2%  
388 0.1% 99.0%  
389 0.2% 98.8%  
390 0.2% 98.6%  
391 0.2% 98%  
392 0.2% 98%  
393 0.4% 98%  
394 1.1% 97%  
395 0.6% 96%  
396 1.3% 96%  
397 1.4% 95%  
398 2% 93%  
399 3% 91%  
400 3% 88%  
401 4% 85%  
402 5% 80%  
403 3% 75%  
404 6% 71%  
405 5% 65%  
406 7% 60%  
407 4% 53%  
408 6% 49%  
409 4% 44% Median
410 3% 39%  
411 3% 36%  
412 3% 33%  
413 3% 30%  
414 1.3% 28%  
415 2% 26%  
416 2% 25%  
417 1.4% 23%  
418 1.1% 22%  
419 3% 21%  
420 2% 18%  
421 2% 16%  
422 2% 14%  
423 2% 13%  
424 2% 11%  
425 2% 9%  
426 1.4% 7%  
427 2% 6%  
428 1.2% 4%  
429 0.9% 3%  
430 0.4% 2%  
431 0.6% 2%  
432 0.3% 1.1%  
433 0.2% 0.7%  
434 0.2% 0.5%  
435 0.1% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.7%  
374 0.2% 99.6%  
375 0.2% 99.4%  
376 0.3% 99.3%  
377 0.4% 98.9%  
378 0.5% 98.6%  
379 0.5% 98%  
380 0.5% 98%  
381 0.6% 97%  
382 0.7% 96%  
383 1.4% 96%  
384 2% 94%  
385 1.4% 93%  
386 2% 91%  
387 2% 89%  
388 2% 88%  
389 2% 85%  
390 3% 83%  
391 3% 80%  
392 4% 77%  
393 3% 73%  
394 3% 70%  
395 4% 67%  
396 3% 63%  
397 4% 60%  
398 4% 57%  
399 5% 52% Median
400 4% 48%  
401 4% 44%  
402 4% 39%  
403 4% 36%  
404 4% 32%  
405 4% 28%  
406 4% 24%  
407 3% 20%  
408 2% 17%  
409 2% 16%  
410 3% 13%  
411 2% 11%  
412 1.2% 9%  
413 2% 8%  
414 1.5% 6%  
415 0.9% 5%  
416 0.6% 4%  
417 0.5% 3%  
418 0.5% 3%  
419 0.4% 2%  
420 0.4% 2%  
421 0.3% 1.3%  
422 0.3% 1.0%  
423 0.2% 0.7%  
424 0.1% 0.5%  
425 0.1% 0.4%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0.1% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.8%  
334 0.1% 99.7%  
335 0.1% 99.6%  
336 0.2% 99.5%  
337 0.2% 99.3%  
338 0.3% 99.1%  
339 0.3% 98.8%  
340 0.2% 98%  
341 0.9% 98%  
342 0.6% 97%  
343 0.5% 97%  
344 1.0% 96%  
345 1.5% 95%  
346 1.0% 94%  
347 1.1% 93%  
348 2% 91%  
349 3% 90%  
350 2% 87%  
351 3% 85%  
352 2% 82%  
353 3% 79%  
354 4% 77%  
355 3% 73% Majority
356 4% 70%  
357 3% 66%  
358 6% 63%  
359 2% 56%  
360 4% 54%  
361 3% 50% Median
362 7% 47%  
363 4% 41%  
364 5% 37%  
365 4% 33%  
366 3% 29%  
367 2% 26%  
368 3% 24%  
369 5% 21%  
370 2% 16%  
371 2% 14%  
372 2% 12%  
373 2% 11%  
374 1.4% 9%  
375 2% 8%  
376 1.0% 6%  
377 0.8% 5%  
378 1.1% 4%  
379 0.5% 3%  
380 0.6% 2%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.4% 2%  
383 0.3% 1.1%  
384 0.2% 0.9%  
385 0.3% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.7%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0.3% 99.6%  
325 0.2% 99.3%  
326 0.3% 99.1%  
327 0.4% 98.9%  
328 0.3% 98%  
329 0.6% 98%  
330 0.5% 98%  
331 1.1% 97%  
332 0.8% 96%  
333 1.0% 95%  
334 2% 94%  
335 1.4% 92%  
336 2% 91%  
337 2% 89%  
338 2% 88%  
339 2% 86%  
340 5% 84%  
341 3% 79%  
342 2% 76%  
343 3% 74%  
344 4% 71%  
345 5% 67%  
346 4% 63%  
347 7% 59%  
348 3% 53%  
349 4% 50% Median
350 2% 46%  
351 6% 44%  
352 3% 37%  
353 4% 34%  
354 3% 30%  
355 4% 27% Majority
356 3% 23%  
357 2% 21%  
358 3% 18%  
359 2% 15%  
360 3% 13%  
361 2% 10%  
362 1.1% 9%  
363 1.0% 7%  
364 1.5% 6%  
365 1.0% 5%  
366 0.5% 4%  
367 0.6% 3%  
368 0.9% 3%  
369 0.2% 2%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.3% 1.2%  
372 0.2% 0.9%  
373 0.2% 0.7%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0.1% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.6%  
309 0.2% 99.4%  
310 0.3% 99.2%  
311 0.3% 98.9%  
312 0.5% 98.6%  
313 0.4% 98% Last Result
314 0.6% 98%  
315 0.7% 97%  
316 0.9% 96%  
317 1.0% 96%  
318 1.1% 95%  
319 2% 93%  
320 2% 92%  
321 1.5% 90%  
322 3% 89%  
323 2% 86%  
324 2% 84%  
325 4% 82%  
326 2% 78%  
327 3% 76%  
328 5% 73%  
329 3% 68%  
330 4% 65%  
331 2% 61%  
332 5% 58%  
333 4% 53%  
334 3% 49% Median
335 5% 46%  
336 5% 41%  
337 5% 37%  
338 3% 32%  
339 4% 29%  
340 3% 25%  
341 4% 23%  
342 3% 19%  
343 2% 16%  
344 3% 14%  
345 2% 11%  
346 1.3% 10%  
347 1.5% 8%  
348 1.4% 7%  
349 1.4% 5%  
350 0.6% 4%  
351 0.6% 3%  
352 0.7% 3%  
353 0.5% 2%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.2% 1.2% Majority
356 0.3% 1.1%  
357 0.2% 0.8%  
358 0.1% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.2% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.4%  
295 0.3% 99.2%  
296 0.3% 98.9%  
297 0.5% 98.6%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0.7% 98%  
300 0.6% 97%  
301 1.3% 96%  
302 1.3% 95%  
303 1.1% 94%  
304 2% 93%  
305 2% 91%  
306 3% 89%  
307 3% 87%  
308 3% 84%  
309 3% 81%  
310 3% 78%  
311 4% 75%  
312 4% 71%  
313 3% 66%  
314 3% 63%  
315 4% 59%  
316 4% 55%  
317 4% 51% Median
318 3% 47%  
319 4% 44%  
320 4% 40%  
321 4% 36%  
322 4% 32%  
323 3% 28%  
324 3% 25%  
325 3% 22%  
326 2% 19%  
327 2% 17%  
328 2% 14%  
329 2% 12%  
330 1.2% 10%  
331 2% 9%  
332 1.5% 7%  
333 1.2% 6%  
334 0.8% 5%  
335 0.7% 4%  
336 0.6% 3%  
337 0.5% 3%  
338 0.6% 2%  
339 0.3% 1.5%  
340 0.3% 1.2%  
341 0.2% 0.8%  
342 0.2% 0.7%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0.1% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.1% 99.5%  
283 0.2% 99.4%  
284 0.1% 99.2%  
285 0.2% 99.1%  
286 0.3% 98.9%  
287 0.3% 98.6%  
288 0.5% 98%  
289 0.6% 98%  
290 0.7% 97%  
291 2% 96%  
292 2% 95%  
293 1.4% 93%  
294 3% 92%  
295 4% 89%  
296 2% 85%  
297 3% 83%  
298 4% 80%  
299 2% 76%  
300 3% 74%  
301 2% 71%  
302 3% 69%  
303 2% 66%  
304 3% 64%  
305 3% 61%  
306 4% 58%  
307 5% 55% Median
308 3% 50%  
309 4% 47%  
310 6% 43%  
311 6% 37%  
312 6% 31%  
313 5% 26%  
314 4% 21%  
315 3% 17%  
316 2% 14%  
317 2% 12%  
318 1.2% 10%  
319 1.0% 9%  
320 0.8% 8%  
321 1.0% 7%  
322 0.8% 6%  
323 0.8% 5%  
324 0.6% 5%  
325 0.8% 4%  
326 0.6% 3%  
327 0.8% 3%  
328 0.5% 2%  
329 0.4% 1.4%  
330 0.4% 1.0%  
331 0.2% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.2% 99.7%  
241 0.2% 99.5%  
242 0.3% 99.3%  
243 0.3% 99.0%  
244 0.3% 98.7%  
245 0.6% 98%  
246 0.4% 98%  
247 1.3% 97%  
248 0.8% 96%  
249 1.0% 95%  
250 1.4% 94%  
251 2% 93%  
252 1.3% 91%  
253 4% 90%  
254 3% 86%  
255 2% 83%  
256 2% 81%  
257 3% 79%  
258 4% 76%  
259 3% 72%  
260 5% 69%  
261 6% 65%  
262 4% 58%  
263 4% 55%  
264 4% 50% Median
265 4% 46%  
266 4% 43%  
267 4% 39%  
268 4% 35%  
269 4% 31%  
270 2% 27%  
271 4% 25%  
272 2% 20%  
273 4% 18%  
274 3% 15%  
275 2% 12%  
276 1.0% 10%  
277 2% 10%  
278 1.4% 7%  
279 1.3% 6%  
280 0.8% 5%  
281 0.8% 4%  
282 0.5% 3%  
283 0.5% 3%  
284 0.5% 2%  
285 0.3% 2%  
286 0.4% 1.2%  
287 0.1% 0.8%  
288 0.2% 0.7%  
289 0.1% 0.5%  
290 0.1% 0.4%  
291 0.1% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0.2% 99.6%  
234 0.2% 99.4%  
235 0.3% 99.2%  
236 0.4% 98.9%  
237 0.5% 98%  
238 0.5% 98%  
239 0.9% 97%  
240 1.0% 97%  
241 1.0% 96%  
242 1.2% 95%  
243 1.3% 93%  
244 1.4% 92%  
245 2% 91%  
246 2% 89%  
247 3% 87%  
248 4% 84%  
249 3% 80%  
250 3% 77%  
251 4% 74%  
252 4% 69%  
253 4% 65%  
254 3% 61%  
255 4% 58%  
256 4% 54%  
257 4% 50% Median
258 5% 46%  
259 4% 42%  
260 5% 37%  
261 4% 33%  
262 4% 29%  
263 3% 25%  
264 2% 22%  
265 2% 20%  
266 3% 17%  
267 3% 15%  
268 2% 12%  
269 1.1% 10%  
270 2% 8%  
271 1.4% 7%  
272 0.7% 5%  
273 0.9% 4%  
274 0.7% 3%  
275 0.5% 3%  
276 0.5% 2%  
277 0.4% 2%  
278 0.4% 1.3%  
279 0.3% 1.0%  
280 0.1% 0.7%  
281 0.2% 0.5%  
282 0.1% 0.4%  
283 0.1% 0.3%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.9%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0.1% 99.7%  
214 0.1% 99.6%  
215 0.2% 99.5%  
216 0.1% 99.3%  
217 0.2% 99.2%  
218 0.2% 99.0%  
219 0.3% 98.7%  
220 0.5% 98%  
221 0.5% 98%  
222 0.8% 97%  
223 0.8% 97%  
224 1.2% 96%  
225 2% 95%  
226 2% 93%  
227 3% 91%  
228 3% 89%  
229 3% 85%  
230 4% 82%  
231 5% 78%  
232 5% 73%  
233 6% 68% Last Result
234 5% 62%  
235 6% 57%  
236 4% 52%  
237 5% 47% Median
238 4% 43%  
239 3% 39%  
240 4% 35%  
241 3% 32%  
242 2% 29%  
243 2% 26%  
244 2% 24%  
245 2% 22%  
246 2% 20%  
247 2% 19%  
248 2% 17%  
249 2% 15%  
250 2% 13%  
251 1.2% 11%  
252 2% 10%  
253 1.2% 7%  
254 1.5% 6%  
255 0.9% 5%  
256 1.2% 4%  
257 0.8% 3%  
258 0.5% 2%  
259 0.4% 1.3%  
260 0.3% 1.0%  
261 0.3% 0.7%  
262 0.1% 0.4%  
263 0.1% 0.3%  
264 0.1% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.8%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0.1% 99.6%  
178 0.2% 99.5%  
179 0.3% 99.3%  
180 0.3% 98.9%  
181 0.4% 98.6%  
182 0.7% 98%  
183 1.0% 98%  
184 0.9% 97%  
185 1.0% 96%  
186 1.1% 95%  
187 2% 94%  
188 3% 92%  
189 2% 89%  
190 3% 87%  
191 3% 85%  
192 4% 81%  
193 3% 77%  
194 4% 74%  
195 5% 70%  
196 5% 65%  
197 6% 61%  
198 4% 55%  
199 5% 51% Median
200 5% 47%  
201 4% 41%  
202 4% 37%  
203 4% 34%  
204 4% 29%  
205 3% 26%  
206 4% 23%  
207 3% 19%  
208 2% 17%  
209 2% 14%  
210 2% 12%  
211 2% 10%  
212 1.4% 8%  
213 1.5% 7%  
214 1.1% 5%  
215 0.8% 4%  
216 0.8% 3%  
217 0.5% 3%  
218 0.5% 2%  
219 0.4% 2%  
220 0.3% 1.2%  
221 0.2% 0.9%  
222 0.1% 0.6% Last Result
223 0.1% 0.5%  
224 0.1% 0.4%  
225 0.1% 0.3%  
226 0% 0.2%  
227 0.1% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations