Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 10–12 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.2% 19.7–22.7% 19.3–23.1% 19.0–23.5% 18.3–24.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.9% 16.9–21.3% 16.3–22.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.9% 16.9–21.3% 16.3–22.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.4–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.0% 10.0–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.4–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.2–5.7% 4.0–6.0% 3.8–6.2% 3.5–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 160 149–171 146–175 144–177 139–183
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 143 134–154 130–156 127–161 124–166
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 144 133–155 131–158 128–160 123–166
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 75–93 73–95 71–97 67–102
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 84 75–92 73–95 71–97 67–102
Die Linke 69 53 47–61 45–63 43–65 40–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 35–46 33–48 32–50 30–53

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.1% 99.6%  
139 0.3% 99.5%  
140 0.2% 99.2%  
141 0.4% 98.9%  
142 0.4% 98.5%  
143 0.5% 98%  
144 0.8% 98%  
145 1.1% 97%  
146 1.4% 96%  
147 1.0% 94%  
148 2% 93%  
149 2% 92%  
150 2% 89%  
151 4% 87%  
152 2% 83%  
153 4% 81%  
154 2% 77%  
155 4% 74%  
156 5% 71%  
157 3% 65%  
158 6% 62%  
159 2% 56%  
160 3% 53% Median
161 5% 50%  
162 5% 45%  
163 6% 40%  
164 3% 33%  
165 5% 31%  
166 3% 25%  
167 3% 23%  
168 4% 20%  
169 3% 16%  
170 2% 14%  
171 1.5% 11%  
172 2% 10%  
173 0.9% 8%  
174 2% 7%  
175 1.2% 5%  
176 0.7% 4%  
177 1.0% 3%  
178 0.3% 2%  
179 0.7% 2%  
180 0.3% 1.2%  
181 0.3% 1.0%  
182 0.2% 0.7%  
183 0.1% 0.5%  
184 0.1% 0.4%  
185 0% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8%  
123 0.2% 99.7%  
124 0.3% 99.6%  
125 0.5% 99.2%  
126 0.7% 98.7%  
127 0.7% 98%  
128 1.1% 97%  
129 1.1% 96%  
130 1.0% 95%  
131 1.0% 94%  
132 1.0% 93%  
133 1.0% 92%  
134 1.4% 91%  
135 3% 90%  
136 3% 87%  
137 4% 84%  
138 6% 80%  
139 6% 74%  
140 5% 68%  
141 6% 63%  
142 6% 56%  
143 4% 51% Median
144 3% 47%  
145 2% 44%  
146 2% 41%  
147 3% 40%  
148 3% 37%  
149 3% 33%  
150 6% 30%  
151 5% 25%  
152 4% 20%  
153 3% 15% Last Result
154 3% 12%  
155 2% 8%  
156 1.3% 6%  
157 0.9% 5%  
158 0.6% 4%  
159 0.4% 3%  
160 0.5% 3%  
161 0.4% 3%  
162 0.4% 2%  
163 0.5% 2%  
164 0.4% 1.4%  
165 0.4% 1.0%  
166 0.3% 0.6%  
167 0.1% 0.4%  
168 0.1% 0.2%  
169 0.1% 0.2%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.8%  
122 0.1% 99.7%  
123 0.2% 99.6%  
124 0.2% 99.5%  
125 0.3% 99.2%  
126 0.5% 99.0%  
127 0.9% 98%  
128 0.8% 98%  
129 0.9% 97%  
130 0.8% 96%  
131 1.4% 95%  
132 1.5% 94%  
133 2% 92%  
134 3% 90%  
135 4% 87%  
136 3% 83%  
137 3% 80%  
138 2% 77%  
139 3% 75%  
140 5% 71%  
141 5% 66%  
142 5% 61%  
143 6% 56%  
144 7% 50% Median
145 4% 44%  
146 3% 40%  
147 4% 37%  
148 4% 33%  
149 4% 29%  
150 3% 24%  
151 4% 21%  
152 3% 17%  
153 2% 13%  
154 1.2% 11%  
155 1.1% 10%  
156 2% 9%  
157 1.3% 7%  
158 1.3% 6%  
159 1.1% 4%  
160 1.0% 3%  
161 0.5% 2%  
162 0.3% 2%  
163 0.3% 1.4%  
164 0.3% 1.1%  
165 0.3% 0.8%  
166 0.1% 0.5%  
167 0.1% 0.4%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0.1% 0.2%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.3% 99.5%  
69 0.5% 99.2%  
70 0.8% 98.7%  
71 0.6% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 3% 92%  
76 3% 89%  
77 4% 86%  
78 5% 82%  
79 5% 77%  
80 6% 72%  
81 5% 67%  
82 5% 62%  
83 8% 56% Median
84 5% 49%  
85 6% 44%  
86 6% 38%  
87 5% 32%  
88 5% 28%  
89 4% 23%  
90 4% 20%  
91 3% 15%  
92 2% 12%  
93 3% 10%  
94 2% 7% Last Result
95 0.9% 6%  
96 2% 5%  
97 0.9% 3%  
98 0.6% 2%  
99 0.5% 2%  
100 0.3% 1.1%  
101 0.3% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.3% 99.5%  
69 0.5% 99.1%  
70 0.7% 98.6%  
71 0.9% 98%  
72 1.1% 97%  
73 1.5% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 3% 92%  
76 3% 89%  
77 4% 86%  
78 5% 82%  
79 5% 78%  
80 5% 73% Last Result
81 6% 68%  
82 7% 62%  
83 5% 56%  
84 6% 50% Median
85 5% 44%  
86 5% 39%  
87 5% 34%  
88 5% 28%  
89 4% 23%  
90 4% 19%  
91 3% 16%  
92 4% 13%  
93 2% 9%  
94 2% 7%  
95 1.4% 5%  
96 0.9% 4%  
97 1.0% 3%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.5% 2%  
100 0.3% 1.1%  
101 0.2% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.5%  
42 0.6% 99.1%  
43 1.3% 98%  
44 1.2% 97%  
45 2% 96%  
46 3% 94%  
47 3% 91%  
48 5% 88%  
49 6% 83%  
50 7% 77%  
51 7% 70%  
52 6% 63%  
53 9% 57% Median
54 6% 48%  
55 7% 42%  
56 7% 35%  
57 5% 28%  
58 5% 23%  
59 3% 18%  
60 4% 15%  
61 3% 10%  
62 2% 7%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.0% 4%  
65 1.0% 3%  
66 0.6% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.2%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.6% 99.5%  
31 1.3% 98.9%  
32 1.3% 98%  
33 2% 96%  
34 4% 94%  
35 5% 90%  
36 6% 86%  
37 8% 80%  
38 7% 72%  
39 9% 64%  
40 10% 56% Median
41 7% 46%  
42 8% 39%  
43 8% 31%  
44 6% 23%  
45 4% 17%  
46 4% 13% Last Result
47 3% 9%  
48 2% 7%  
49 1.4% 4%  
50 1.0% 3%  
51 0.6% 2%  
52 0.5% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 488 100% 476–500 472–504 469–507 463–513
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 428 100% 415–441 411–444 408–447 402–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 428 100% 414–441 411–444 407–447 402–454
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 371 95% 358–384 354–388 351–391 345–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 368 91% 355–381 350–385 348–387 341–394
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 345 16% 332–357 328–361 324–365 318–371
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 344 18% 332–356 327–362 325–364 317–372
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 341 9% 328–354 324–359 322–361 315–368
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 288 0% 275–301 271–305 268–308 262–314
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 284 0% 271–297 268–301 265–304 258–311
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 285 0% 271–297 268–301 264–304 258–311
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 228 0% 215–240 212–243 209–246 203–253
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 198 0% 185–209 182–213 180–216 174–222

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
456 0% 100%  
457 0% 99.9%  
458 0% 99.9%  
459 0% 99.9%  
460 0.1% 99.8%  
461 0.1% 99.8%  
462 0.1% 99.7%  
463 0.1% 99.6%  
464 0.2% 99.4%  
465 0.2% 99.2%  
466 0.3% 99.0% Last Result
467 0.4% 98.7%  
468 0.5% 98%  
469 0.4% 98%  
470 0.9% 97%  
471 0.7% 97%  
472 1.2% 96%  
473 0.8% 95%  
474 1.2% 94%  
475 2% 93%  
476 2% 91%  
477 2% 89%  
478 2% 87%  
479 3% 84%  
480 3% 82%  
481 3% 79%  
482 5% 76%  
483 2% 71%  
484 6% 69%  
485 3% 63%  
486 4% 60%  
487 4% 56% Median
488 4% 52%  
489 4% 48%  
490 4% 44%  
491 3% 40%  
492 3% 36%  
493 4% 34%  
494 4% 30%  
495 2% 25%  
496 3% 23%  
497 3% 20%  
498 2% 17%  
499 2% 14%  
500 3% 12%  
501 1.4% 9%  
502 2% 8%  
503 1.1% 6%  
504 1.0% 5%  
505 0.5% 4%  
506 0.5% 4%  
507 1.0% 3%  
508 0.4% 2%  
509 0.5% 2%  
510 0.3% 1.2%  
511 0.2% 0.9%  
512 0.1% 0.6%  
513 0.1% 0.5%  
514 0.1% 0.4%  
515 0.1% 0.3%  
516 0% 0.2%  
517 0% 0.2%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0.1%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0.1% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.7%  
401 0.1% 99.6%  
402 0.2% 99.6%  
403 0.1% 99.3%  
404 0.2% 99.2%  
405 0.3% 99.0%  
406 0.2% 98.7%  
407 0.6% 98%  
408 0.8% 98%  
409 0.4% 97%  
410 0.8% 97%  
411 1.1% 96%  
412 0.5% 95%  
413 2% 94%  
414 2% 92%  
415 1.1% 90%  
416 3% 89%  
417 1.0% 86%  
418 2% 85%  
419 3% 83%  
420 2% 80%  
421 4% 78%  
422 5% 74%  
423 2% 70%  
424 3% 68%  
425 4% 64%  
426 3% 61%  
427 6% 58% Median
428 4% 52%  
429 3% 49%  
430 5% 45%  
431 3% 41%  
432 4% 38%  
433 6% 34%  
434 2% 29%  
435 3% 27%  
436 5% 24%  
437 1.1% 18%  
438 3% 17%  
439 1.4% 14%  
440 1.4% 13%  
441 3% 11%  
442 1.1% 8%  
443 0.7% 7%  
444 2% 7%  
445 0.4% 5%  
446 0.9% 4%  
447 0.8% 3%  
448 0.2% 2%  
449 0.6% 2%  
450 0.5% 2%  
451 0.1% 1.1%  
452 0.3% 1.0%  
453 0.2% 0.7%  
454 0.1% 0.5%  
455 0.2% 0.5%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0.1% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.7%  
401 0.2% 99.7%  
402 0.1% 99.5%  
403 0.2% 99.4%  
404 0.2% 99.2%  
405 0.3% 99.0%  
406 0.3% 98.7%  
407 0.9% 98%  
408 0.3% 97%  
409 0.7% 97%  
410 0.7% 96%  
411 1.3% 96%  
412 1.2% 94%  
413 2% 93%  
414 2% 92%  
415 2% 90%  
416 1.4% 88%  
417 2% 87%  
418 2% 85%  
419 3% 83%  
420 2% 80%  
421 3% 77%  
422 2% 74%  
423 3% 72%  
424 4% 69%  
425 5% 66%  
426 5% 61%  
427 3% 55%  
428 5% 52% Median
429 3% 47%  
430 5% 44%  
431 4% 39%  
432 3% 35%  
433 5% 32%  
434 2% 27%  
435 3% 25%  
436 1.3% 22%  
437 3% 21%  
438 2% 18%  
439 3% 16%  
440 2% 13%  
441 1.4% 10%  
442 2% 9%  
443 1.1% 7%  
444 1.5% 6%  
445 0.8% 5%  
446 1.3% 4%  
447 0.5% 3%  
448 0.4% 2%  
449 0.4% 2%  
450 0.3% 2%  
451 0.2% 1.3%  
452 0.3% 1.0%  
453 0.2% 0.7%  
454 0.1% 0.6%  
455 0.1% 0.4%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0.1% 0.3%  
458 0.1% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.7%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.2% 99.6%  
346 0.2% 99.4%  
347 0.2% 99.2%  
348 0.3% 98.9%  
349 0.3% 98.7%  
350 0.4% 98%  
351 0.5% 98%  
352 0.7% 97%  
353 0.8% 97%  
354 1.0% 96%  
355 1.2% 95% Majority
356 1.2% 94%  
357 1.5% 92%  
358 2% 91%  
359 2% 89%  
360 2% 88%  
361 3% 86%  
362 2% 83%  
363 3% 81%  
364 2% 78%  
365 3% 75%  
366 3% 72%  
367 4% 69%  
368 4% 64%  
369 3% 61%  
370 3% 57%  
371 4% 54% Median
372 4% 50%  
373 3% 46%  
374 4% 43%  
375 3% 38%  
376 5% 35%  
377 3% 30%  
378 3% 28%  
379 2% 25%  
380 4% 22%  
381 2% 18%  
382 3% 16%  
383 1.2% 13%  
384 2% 12%  
385 1.3% 10%  
386 2% 9%  
387 0.9% 7%  
388 2% 6%  
389 0.8% 5%  
390 0.7% 4%  
391 0.6% 3%  
392 0.5% 2%  
393 0.4% 2%  
394 0.4% 2%  
395 0.3% 1.2%  
396 0.2% 0.9%  
397 0.2% 0.7%  
398 0.1% 0.6%  
399 0.1% 0.5%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.7%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0.1% 99.5%  
343 0.3% 99.4%  
344 0.5% 99.1%  
345 0.3% 98.6%  
346 0.3% 98%  
347 0.3% 98%  
348 0.6% 98%  
349 1.1% 97%  
350 1.1% 96%  
351 0.7% 95%  
352 0.6% 94%  
353 1.0% 94%  
354 2% 93%  
355 3% 91% Majority
356 3% 88%  
357 2% 85%  
358 2% 83%  
359 2% 81%  
360 2% 79%  
361 3% 77%  
362 4% 74%  
363 4% 70%  
364 3% 66%  
365 2% 62%  
366 5% 61%  
367 5% 56% Median
368 6% 51%  
369 3% 45%  
370 2% 41%  
371 2% 40%  
372 3% 38%  
373 6% 35%  
374 4% 29%  
375 4% 25%  
376 2% 22%  
377 3% 19%  
378 2% 17%  
379 2% 15%  
380 2% 13%  
381 2% 11%  
382 2% 9%  
383 0.9% 8%  
384 1.0% 7%  
385 2% 6%  
386 1.2% 4%  
387 0.6% 3%  
388 0.2% 2%  
389 0.2% 2%  
390 0.3% 2%  
391 0.4% 2%  
392 0.4% 1.2%  
393 0.2% 0.8%  
394 0.1% 0.6%  
395 0.1% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0.1% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.7%  
318 0.2% 99.6%  
319 0.2% 99.4%  
320 0.2% 99.2%  
321 0.2% 98.9%  
322 0.2% 98.7%  
323 0.6% 98.5%  
324 1.0% 98%  
325 0.5% 97%  
326 0.7% 96%  
327 0.7% 96%  
328 1.2% 95%  
329 1.3% 94%  
330 1.1% 92%  
331 1.3% 91%  
332 2% 90%  
333 2% 88%  
334 4% 86%  
335 3% 82%  
336 3% 79%  
337 2% 76%  
338 3% 74%  
339 4% 72%  
340 5% 68%  
341 5% 63%  
342 2% 58%  
343 3% 56% Median
344 3% 53%  
345 3% 51%  
346 4% 47%  
347 3% 43%  
348 3% 40%  
349 4% 37%  
350 6% 32%  
351 3% 27%  
352 3% 24%  
353 2% 21%  
354 2% 19%  
355 3% 16% Majority
356 3% 14%  
357 2% 11%  
358 1.2% 9%  
359 1.2% 8%  
360 1.0% 7%  
361 1.1% 6%  
362 0.6% 5%  
363 0.6% 4%  
364 0.4% 3%  
365 0.9% 3%  
366 0.5% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.2% 1.2%  
369 0.2% 1.0%  
370 0.1% 0.8%  
371 0.2% 0.7%  
372 0.2% 0.5%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9% Last Result
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.9%  
316 0.2% 99.8%  
317 0.2% 99.6%  
318 0.2% 99.3%  
319 0.1% 99.2%  
320 0.1% 99.0%  
321 0.1% 98.9%  
322 0.1% 98.9%  
323 0.3% 98.8%  
324 0.6% 98%  
325 1.2% 98%  
326 1.3% 97%  
327 2% 95%  
328 1.2% 93%  
329 0.5% 92%  
330 0.3% 91%  
331 0.3% 91%  
332 0.8% 91%  
333 2% 90%  
334 5% 88%  
335 4% 83%  
336 5% 80%  
337 4% 75%  
338 3% 71%  
339 1.1% 67%  
340 0.6% 66%  
341 1.2% 66%  
342 3% 64%  
343 4% 62%  
344 9% 57% Median
345 8% 49%  
346 5% 41%  
347 3% 36%  
348 2% 33%  
349 0.7% 31%  
350 0.8% 30%  
351 2% 29%  
352 3% 28%  
353 4% 25%  
354 3% 21%  
355 6% 18% Majority
356 2% 12%  
357 2% 10%  
358 0.4% 8%  
359 0.3% 8%  
360 0.4% 7%  
361 0.9% 7%  
362 2% 6%  
363 1.2% 4%  
364 1.0% 3%  
365 0.8% 2%  
366 0.4% 1.5%  
367 0.1% 1.1%  
368 0% 1.0%  
369 0.1% 0.9%  
370 0.1% 0.9%  
371 0.1% 0.8%  
372 0.3% 0.6%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7%  
314 0.1% 99.6%  
315 0.1% 99.5%  
316 0.2% 99.4%  
317 0.4% 99.2%  
318 0.4% 98.8%  
319 0.3% 98%  
320 0.2% 98%  
321 0.2% 98%  
322 0.6% 98%  
323 1.2% 97%  
324 2% 96%  
325 1.0% 94%  
326 0.9% 93%  
327 2% 92%  
328 2% 91%  
329 2% 89%  
330 2% 87%  
331 2% 85%  
332 3% 83%  
333 2% 81%  
334 4% 78%  
335 4% 75%  
336 6% 71%  
337 3% 65%  
338 2% 62%  
339 2% 60%  
340 3% 59% Median
341 6% 55%  
342 5% 49%  
343 5% 44%  
344 2% 39%  
345 3% 38%  
346 4% 34%  
347 4% 30%  
348 3% 26%  
349 2% 23%  
350 2% 21%  
351 2% 19%  
352 2% 17%  
353 3% 15%  
354 3% 12%  
355 2% 9% Majority
356 1.0% 7%  
357 0.6% 6%  
358 0.7% 6%  
359 1.1% 5%  
360 1.1% 4%  
361 0.6% 3%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.3% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.5% 1.4%  
366 0.3% 0.9%  
367 0.1% 0.6%  
368 0.1% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.6%  
262 0.2% 99.5%  
263 0.2% 99.3%  
264 0.2% 99.1%  
265 0.2% 98.9%  
266 0.4% 98.6%  
267 0.4% 98%  
268 0.5% 98%  
269 0.9% 97%  
270 0.7% 96%  
271 1.1% 96%  
272 1.1% 95%  
273 1.4% 94%  
274 2% 92%  
275 2% 91%  
276 2% 89%  
277 3% 87%  
278 2% 84%  
279 3% 82%  
280 3% 79%  
281 3% 75%  
282 4% 72%  
283 3% 68%  
284 4% 65%  
285 3% 62%  
286 4% 59%  
287 4% 55% Median
288 4% 52%  
289 4% 48%  
290 4% 44%  
291 4% 40%  
292 4% 36%  
293 3% 32%  
294 5% 28%  
295 3% 24%  
296 3% 21%  
297 2% 18%  
298 2% 16%  
299 2% 14%  
300 1.4% 12%  
301 2% 10%  
302 1.2% 9%  
303 1.4% 8%  
304 1.2% 6%  
305 0.7% 5%  
306 1.0% 4%  
307 0.6% 3%  
308 0.6% 3%  
309 0.4% 2%  
310 0.4% 2%  
311 0.3% 1.4%  
312 0.4% 1.1%  
313 0.2% 0.7%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.2% 99.6%  
259 0.1% 99.5%  
260 0.2% 99.3%  
261 0.3% 99.1%  
262 0.4% 98.8%  
263 0.4% 98%  
264 0.4% 98%  
265 0.5% 98%  
266 0.8% 97%  
267 1.1% 96%  
268 1.1% 95%  
269 1.1% 94%  
270 1.4% 93%  
271 2% 92%  
272 2% 89%  
273 2% 87%  
274 2% 85%  
275 3% 83%  
276 3% 80%  
277 4% 76%  
278 2% 73%  
279 3% 71%  
280 3% 67%  
281 4% 64%  
282 4% 60%  
283 4% 56% Median
284 5% 53%  
285 3% 48%  
286 3% 45%  
287 5% 42%  
288 4% 37%  
289 4% 33%  
290 3% 29%  
291 3% 26%  
292 3% 23%  
293 3% 20%  
294 2% 17%  
295 2% 15%  
296 2% 13%  
297 2% 11%  
298 2% 10%  
299 1.0% 8%  
300 2% 7%  
301 1.0% 5%  
302 0.8% 4%  
303 0.8% 4%  
304 0.6% 3%  
305 0.4% 2%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.2% 1.3%  
308 0.3% 1.1%  
309 0.2% 0.8%  
310 0.1% 0.6%  
311 0.1% 0.5%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.2%  
315 0.1% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.6%  
259 0.3% 99.5%  
260 0.1% 99.2%  
261 0.3% 99.1%  
262 0.6% 98.8%  
263 0.3% 98%  
264 0.5% 98%  
265 0.5% 97%  
266 1.0% 97%  
267 0.9% 96%  
268 1.2% 95%  
269 2% 94%  
270 0.8% 92%  
271 3% 91%  
272 1.4% 88%  
273 3% 87%  
274 2% 84%  
275 0.9% 82%  
276 5% 81%  
277 1.4% 76%  
278 4% 75%  
279 0.9% 70%  
280 3% 69%  
281 5% 66%  
282 3% 61%  
283 5% 58%  
284 3% 53% Median
285 4% 50%  
286 4% 46%  
287 5% 42%  
288 5% 37%  
289 2% 32%  
290 4% 30%  
291 2% 26%  
292 4% 24%  
293 3% 20%  
294 2% 17%  
295 3% 16%  
296 0.6% 12%  
297 2% 12%  
298 2% 9%  
299 1.2% 7%  
300 0.9% 6%  
301 0.5% 5%  
302 2% 5%  
303 0.3% 3%  
304 0.6% 3%  
305 0.3% 2%  
306 0.3% 2%  
307 0.5% 1.5%  
308 0.1% 1.0%  
309 0.2% 0.9%  
310 0.1% 0.6%  
311 0.1% 0.5%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0.1% 99.9%  
201 0.1% 99.8%  
202 0.1% 99.7%  
203 0.2% 99.6%  
204 0.2% 99.4%  
205 0.3% 99.2%  
206 0.2% 99.0%  
207 0.4% 98.8%  
208 0.8% 98%  
209 0.9% 98%  
210 0.7% 97%  
211 0.9% 96%  
212 0.9% 95%  
213 1.2% 94%  
214 1.4% 93%  
215 2% 92%  
216 2% 90%  
217 1.5% 88%  
218 2% 87%  
219 5% 84%  
220 5% 79%  
221 3% 75%  
222 3% 72%  
223 2% 69%  
224 4% 67%  
225 6% 62%  
226 3% 57%  
227 2% 54% Median
228 3% 52%  
229 6% 49%  
230 6% 43%  
231 4% 37%  
232 4% 33%  
233 2% 29% Last Result
234 3% 27%  
235 4% 25%  
236 3% 21%  
237 2% 18%  
238 2% 16%  
239 2% 14%  
240 3% 12%  
241 3% 9%  
242 1.3% 6%  
243 0.7% 5%  
244 0.6% 4%  
245 0.6% 4%  
246 1.0% 3%  
247 0.4% 2%  
248 0.3% 2%  
249 0.2% 2%  
250 0.3% 1.4%  
251 0.4% 1.1%  
252 0.2% 0.7%  
253 0.1% 0.5%  
254 0.1% 0.4%  
255 0.1% 0.3%  
256 0.1% 0.3%  
257 0.1% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0.1% 99.8%  
171 0.1% 99.8%  
172 0% 99.7%  
173 0.2% 99.7%  
174 0.2% 99.5%  
175 0.2% 99.3%  
176 0.2% 99.2%  
177 0.4% 99.0%  
178 0.6% 98.6%  
179 0.3% 98%  
180 0.8% 98%  
181 2% 97%  
182 0.6% 95%  
183 0.9% 95%  
184 2% 94%  
185 2% 91%  
186 1.2% 89%  
187 2% 88%  
188 3% 86%  
189 2% 83%  
190 2% 80%  
191 5% 79%  
192 5% 74%  
193 2% 69%  
194 4% 67%  
195 7% 63%  
196 3% 56% Median
197 3% 54%  
198 5% 50%  
199 6% 45%  
200 2% 40%  
201 4% 38%  
202 6% 33%  
203 2% 28%  
204 2% 25%  
205 4% 23%  
206 3% 19%  
207 1.1% 16%  
208 2% 15%  
209 3% 12%  
210 1.3% 9%  
211 1.2% 8%  
212 1.5% 7%  
213 1.2% 5%  
214 0.5% 4%  
215 0.7% 4%  
216 0.8% 3%  
217 0.4% 2%  
218 0.3% 2%  
219 0.5% 1.3%  
220 0.2% 0.9%  
221 0.1% 0.7%  
222 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
223 0.1% 0.4%  
224 0.1% 0.3%  
225 0.1% 0.2%  
226 0% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations