Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 9–13 August 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands | 26.8% | 20.3% | 19.0–21.7% | 18.7–22.2% | 18.4–22.5% | 17.7–23.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 20.5% | 20.0% | 18.7–21.4% | 18.3–21.8% | 18.0–22.1% | 17.4–22.8% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 8.9% | 18.0% | 16.8–19.4% | 16.4–19.7% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.5–20.7% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 10.7% | 12.0% | 11.0–13.2% | 10.7–13.5% | 10.4–13.8% | 9.9–14.4% |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 12.6% | 11.0% | 10.0–12.2% | 9.8–12.5% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.1–13.3% |
| Die Linke | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.2–8.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.5–8.9% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.4–6.3% |
| Freie Wähler | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.0–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands | 200 | 154 | 144–164 | 142–168 | 139–171 | 134–175 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 153 | 151 | 142–162 | 138–164 | 136–168 | 131–172 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 67 | 136 | 126–146 | 124–150 | 122–152 | 117–157 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 80 | 91 | 84–100 | 81–101 | 79–104 | 75–108 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 94 | 83 | 76–92 | 74–95 | 72–97 | 69–101 |
| Die Linke | 69 | 54 | 47–61 | 46–63 | 44–64 | 41–67 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 46 | 39 | 33–45 | 32–46 | 31–47 | 29–50 |
| Freie Wähler | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 141 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 142 | 2% | 95% | |
| 143 | 2% | 93% | |
| 144 | 4% | 91% | |
| 145 | 2% | 87% | |
| 146 | 4% | 85% | |
| 147 | 3% | 81% | |
| 148 | 3% | 78% | |
| 149 | 4% | 75% | |
| 150 | 5% | 71% | |
| 151 | 4% | 66% | |
| 152 | 5% | 61% | |
| 153 | 5% | 57% | |
| 154 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 155 | 5% | 49% | |
| 156 | 4% | 44% | |
| 157 | 5% | 40% | |
| 158 | 4% | 35% | |
| 159 | 5% | 31% | |
| 160 | 5% | 26% | |
| 161 | 6% | 20% | |
| 162 | 2% | 15% | |
| 163 | 2% | 13% | |
| 164 | 2% | 11% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 166 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 167 | 2% | 7% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 169 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 171 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 136 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 138 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 139 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 140 | 2% | 94% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 142 | 4% | 90% | |
| 143 | 3% | 86% | |
| 144 | 3% | 83% | |
| 145 | 2% | 80% | |
| 146 | 4% | 78% | |
| 147 | 6% | 74% | |
| 148 | 6% | 68% | |
| 149 | 3% | 62% | |
| 150 | 5% | 60% | |
| 151 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 152 | 6% | 49% | |
| 153 | 3% | 44% | Last Result |
| 154 | 6% | 41% | |
| 155 | 5% | 35% | |
| 156 | 4% | 30% | |
| 157 | 2% | 26% | |
| 158 | 5% | 24% | |
| 159 | 4% | 18% | |
| 160 | 2% | 14% | |
| 161 | 2% | 12% | |
| 162 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 163 | 2% | 9% | |
| 164 | 2% | 6% | |
| 165 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 166 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 122 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 123 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 124 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 125 | 2% | 94% | |
| 126 | 3% | 92% | |
| 127 | 3% | 89% | |
| 128 | 2% | 86% | |
| 129 | 3% | 84% | |
| 130 | 6% | 81% | |
| 131 | 5% | 76% | |
| 132 | 4% | 71% | |
| 133 | 4% | 67% | |
| 134 | 5% | 62% | |
| 135 | 6% | 57% | |
| 136 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 137 | 4% | 46% | |
| 138 | 6% | 42% | |
| 139 | 3% | 36% | |
| 140 | 5% | 33% | |
| 141 | 4% | 28% | |
| 142 | 4% | 24% | |
| 143 | 2% | 20% | |
| 144 | 4% | 18% | |
| 145 | 3% | 15% | |
| 146 | 2% | 12% | |
| 147 | 2% | 10% | |
| 148 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 149 | 2% | 7% | |
| 150 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 152 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 97% | Last Result |
| 81 | 2% | 96% | |
| 82 | 2% | 94% | |
| 83 | 2% | 92% | |
| 84 | 3% | 90% | |
| 85 | 5% | 87% | |
| 86 | 8% | 83% | |
| 87 | 7% | 75% | |
| 88 | 8% | 69% | |
| 89 | 4% | 60% | |
| 90 | 6% | 56% | |
| 91 | 4% | 50% | Median |
| 92 | 6% | 46% | |
| 93 | 7% | 40% | |
| 94 | 4% | 33% | |
| 95 | 5% | 29% | |
| 96 | 3% | 24% | |
| 97 | 3% | 22% | |
| 98 | 4% | 18% | |
| 99 | 4% | 15% | |
| 100 | 4% | 11% | |
| 101 | 2% | 6% | |
| 102 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 73 | 2% | 97% | |
| 74 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 75 | 2% | 94% | |
| 76 | 4% | 92% | |
| 77 | 4% | 88% | |
| 78 | 3% | 84% | |
| 79 | 4% | 81% | |
| 80 | 7% | 77% | |
| 81 | 7% | 70% | |
| 82 | 7% | 63% | |
| 83 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 84 | 7% | 49% | |
| 85 | 5% | 43% | |
| 86 | 6% | 38% | |
| 87 | 7% | 32% | |
| 88 | 4% | 26% | |
| 89 | 5% | 22% | |
| 90 | 4% | 17% | |
| 91 | 2% | 12% | |
| 92 | 2% | 10% | |
| 93 | 2% | 8% | |
| 94 | 1.3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 95 | 2% | 5% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 97 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 46 | 3% | 96% | |
| 47 | 4% | 93% | |
| 48 | 7% | 90% | |
| 49 | 7% | 82% | |
| 50 | 5% | 75% | |
| 51 | 5% | 70% | |
| 52 | 4% | 65% | |
| 53 | 5% | 61% | |
| 54 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 55 | 11% | 47% | |
| 56 | 12% | 36% | |
| 57 | 5% | 24% | |
| 58 | 5% | 20% | |
| 59 | 3% | 15% | |
| 60 | 2% | 12% | |
| 61 | 3% | 10% | |
| 62 | 2% | 7% | |
| 63 | 2% | 5% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98% | |
| 32 | 3% | 96% | |
| 33 | 5% | 94% | |
| 34 | 5% | 89% | |
| 35 | 6% | 84% | |
| 36 | 8% | 78% | |
| 37 | 9% | 70% | |
| 38 | 7% | 62% | |
| 39 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 40 | 8% | 45% | |
| 41 | 7% | 37% | |
| 42 | 8% | 30% | |
| 43 | 7% | 22% | |
| 44 | 5% | 15% | |
| 45 | 4% | 10% | |
| 46 | 2% | 7% | Last Result |
| 47 | 2% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 466 | 481 | 100% | 469–491 | 466–495 | 463–498 | 458–504 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 479 | 435 | 100% | 424–447 | 420–451 | 417–454 | 411–460 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 393 | 420 | 100% | 409–432 | 405–437 | 402–439 | 396–444 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei | 300 | 378 | 99.4% | 366–392 | 362–395 | 360–398 | 354–403 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 420 | 368 | 92% | 356–380 | 352–384 | 349–386 | 343–392 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 399 | 344 | 17% | 332–357 | 329–360 | 325–364 | 320–369 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke | 289 | 341 | 8% | 329–353 | 325–357 | 323–360 | 317–366 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 313 | 329 | 0.4% | 317–342 | 314–345 | 311–348 | 305–354 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 220 | 288 | 0% | 275–300 | 272–304 | 269–308 | 264–313 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 326 | 285 | 0% | 271–296 | 269–301 | 266–303 | 259–308 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | 340 | 276 | 0% | 265–289 | 261–292 | 258–295 | 253–300 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei | 233 | 243 | 0% | 231–254 | 227–257 | 224–260 | 219–266 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke | 222 | 205 | 0% | 194–217 | 191–219 | 188–222 | 183–228 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 450 | 0% | 100% | |
| 451 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 452 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 453 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 454 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 455 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 456 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 457 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 458 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 459 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 460 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 461 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 462 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 463 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 464 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 465 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 466 | 1.2% | 95% | Last Result |
| 467 | 2% | 94% | |
| 468 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 469 | 2% | 91% | |
| 470 | 3% | 89% | |
| 471 | 3% | 86% | |
| 472 | 3% | 83% | |
| 473 | 3% | 80% | |
| 474 | 2% | 77% | |
| 475 | 4% | 75% | |
| 476 | 3% | 71% | |
| 477 | 6% | 68% | |
| 478 | 2% | 63% | |
| 479 | 5% | 61% | |
| 480 | 3% | 56% | Median |
| 481 | 5% | 53% | |
| 482 | 4% | 47% | |
| 483 | 4% | 43% | |
| 484 | 3% | 39% | |
| 485 | 8% | 36% | |
| 486 | 2% | 29% | |
| 487 | 6% | 27% | |
| 488 | 1.4% | 21% | |
| 489 | 4% | 19% | |
| 490 | 1.3% | 15% | |
| 491 | 4% | 14% | |
| 492 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 493 | 2% | 9% | |
| 494 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 495 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 496 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 497 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 498 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 499 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 500 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 501 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 502 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 503 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 504 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 505 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 506 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 507 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 508 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 509 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 510 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 511 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 404 | 0% | 100% | |
| 405 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 406 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 407 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 408 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 409 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 410 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 411 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 412 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 413 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 414 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 415 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 416 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 417 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 418 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 419 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 420 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 421 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 422 | 2% | 94% | |
| 423 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 424 | 2% | 90% | |
| 425 | 4% | 88% | |
| 426 | 2% | 85% | |
| 427 | 3% | 83% | |
| 428 | 3% | 80% | |
| 429 | 3% | 77% | |
| 430 | 3% | 74% | |
| 431 | 4% | 71% | |
| 432 | 5% | 67% | |
| 433 | 3% | 62% | |
| 434 | 4% | 59% | |
| 435 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 436 | 6% | 49% | |
| 437 | 3% | 44% | |
| 438 | 3% | 41% | |
| 439 | 3% | 37% | |
| 440 | 5% | 34% | |
| 441 | 2% | 29% | |
| 442 | 3% | 26% | |
| 443 | 3% | 23% | |
| 444 | 3% | 20% | |
| 445 | 3% | 17% | |
| 446 | 1.4% | 14% | |
| 447 | 3% | 13% | |
| 448 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 449 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 450 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 451 | 2% | 6% | |
| 452 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 453 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 454 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 455 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 456 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 457 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 458 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 459 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 460 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 461 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 462 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 463 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 464 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 465 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 466 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 467 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 468 | 0% | 0% | |
| 469 | 0% | 0% | |
| 470 | 0% | 0% | |
| 471 | 0% | 0% | |
| 472 | 0% | 0% | |
| 473 | 0% | 0% | |
| 474 | 0% | 0% | |
| 475 | 0% | 0% | |
| 476 | 0% | 0% | |
| 477 | 0% | 0% | |
| 478 | 0% | 0% | |
| 479 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 389 | 0% | 100% | |
| 390 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 391 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 392 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 393 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 394 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 395 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 396 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 397 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 398 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 399 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 400 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 401 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 402 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 403 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 404 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 405 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 406 | 2% | 94% | |
| 407 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 408 | 1.2% | 91% | |
| 409 | 3% | 90% | |
| 410 | 1.5% | 87% | |
| 411 | 3% | 85% | |
| 412 | 2% | 82% | |
| 413 | 7% | 80% | |
| 414 | 3% | 74% | |
| 415 | 3% | 71% | |
| 416 | 4% | 68% | |
| 417 | 4% | 64% | |
| 418 | 4% | 60% | |
| 419 | 4% | 56% | |
| 420 | 2% | 52% | Median |
| 421 | 6% | 50% | |
| 422 | 4% | 44% | |
| 423 | 2% | 40% | |
| 424 | 4% | 38% | |
| 425 | 4% | 34% | |
| 426 | 6% | 30% | |
| 427 | 2% | 25% | |
| 428 | 2% | 23% | |
| 429 | 4% | 20% | |
| 430 | 3% | 17% | |
| 431 | 1.3% | 14% | |
| 432 | 3% | 13% | |
| 433 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 434 | 2% | 9% | |
| 435 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 436 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 437 | 2% | 5% | |
| 438 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 439 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 440 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 441 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 442 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 443 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 444 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 445 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 446 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 447 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 448 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 449 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 450 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 451 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 452 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 453 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 300 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 301 | 0% | 100% | |
| 302 | 0% | 100% | |
| 303 | 0% | 100% | |
| 304 | 0% | 100% | |
| 305 | 0% | 100% | |
| 306 | 0% | 100% | |
| 307 | 0% | 100% | |
| 308 | 0% | 100% | |
| 309 | 0% | 100% | |
| 310 | 0% | 100% | |
| 311 | 0% | 100% | |
| 312 | 0% | 100% | |
| 313 | 0% | 100% | |
| 314 | 0% | 100% | |
| 315 | 0% | 100% | |
| 316 | 0% | 100% | |
| 317 | 0% | 100% | |
| 318 | 0% | 100% | |
| 319 | 0% | 100% | |
| 320 | 0% | 100% | |
| 321 | 0% | 100% | |
| 322 | 0% | 100% | |
| 323 | 0% | 100% | |
| 324 | 0% | 100% | |
| 325 | 0% | 100% | |
| 326 | 0% | 100% | |
| 327 | 0% | 100% | |
| 328 | 0% | 100% | |
| 329 | 0% | 100% | |
| 330 | 0% | 100% | |
| 331 | 0% | 100% | |
| 332 | 0% | 100% | |
| 333 | 0% | 100% | |
| 334 | 0% | 100% | |
| 335 | 0% | 100% | |
| 336 | 0% | 100% | |
| 337 | 0% | 100% | |
| 338 | 0% | 100% | |
| 339 | 0% | 100% | |
| 340 | 0% | 100% | |
| 341 | 0% | 100% | |
| 342 | 0% | 100% | |
| 343 | 0% | 100% | |
| 344 | 0% | 100% | |
| 345 | 0% | 100% | |
| 346 | 0% | 100% | |
| 347 | 0% | 100% | |
| 348 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 349 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 350 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 351 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 352 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 354 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 355 | 0.2% | 99.4% | Majority |
| 356 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 357 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 358 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 359 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 360 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 361 | 2% | 97% | |
| 362 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 363 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 364 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 365 | 2% | 92% | |
| 366 | 2% | 90% | |
| 367 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 368 | 3% | 87% | |
| 369 | 1.5% | 84% | |
| 370 | 4% | 83% | |
| 371 | 2% | 79% | |
| 372 | 4% | 77% | |
| 373 | 3% | 73% | |
| 374 | 5% | 70% | |
| 375 | 4% | 65% | |
| 376 | 3% | 61% | |
| 377 | 3% | 58% | |
| 378 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 379 | 5% | 50% | |
| 380 | 4% | 45% | |
| 381 | 4% | 41% | |
| 382 | 2% | 38% | |
| 383 | 4% | 35% | |
| 384 | 2% | 31% | |
| 385 | 3% | 29% | |
| 386 | 5% | 26% | |
| 387 | 4% | 21% | |
| 388 | 2% | 17% | |
| 389 | 2% | 16% | |
| 390 | 2% | 14% | |
| 391 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 392 | 3% | 11% | |
| 393 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 394 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 395 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 396 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 397 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 398 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 399 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 400 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 401 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 402 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 403 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 404 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 405 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 406 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 409 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 410 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 411 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 336 | 0% | 100% | |
| 337 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 338 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 339 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 340 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 341 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 344 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 345 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 346 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 347 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 348 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 349 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 350 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 351 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 352 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 353 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 354 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 355 | 1.3% | 92% | Majority |
| 356 | 3% | 91% | |
| 357 | 2% | 87% | |
| 358 | 4% | 85% | |
| 359 | 3% | 82% | |
| 360 | 4% | 79% | |
| 361 | 2% | 75% | |
| 362 | 2% | 73% | |
| 363 | 5% | 71% | |
| 364 | 4% | 67% | |
| 365 | 3% | 62% | |
| 366 | 4% | 59% | |
| 367 | 3% | 55% | Median |
| 368 | 4% | 52% | |
| 369 | 5% | 48% | |
| 370 | 4% | 43% | |
| 371 | 4% | 38% | |
| 372 | 3% | 35% | |
| 373 | 2% | 32% | |
| 374 | 4% | 30% | |
| 375 | 3% | 25% | |
| 376 | 3% | 22% | |
| 377 | 3% | 19% | |
| 378 | 2% | 16% | |
| 379 | 2% | 14% | |
| 380 | 3% | 12% | |
| 381 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 382 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 383 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 384 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 385 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 386 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 387 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 388 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 389 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 390 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 391 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 392 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 393 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 394 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 395 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 396 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0% | |
| 406 | 0% | 0% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0% | |
| 409 | 0% | 0% | |
| 410 | 0% | 0% | |
| 411 | 0% | 0% | |
| 412 | 0% | 0% | |
| 413 | 0% | 0% | |
| 414 | 0% | 0% | |
| 415 | 0% | 0% | |
| 416 | 0% | 0% | |
| 417 | 0% | 0% | |
| 418 | 0% | 0% | |
| 419 | 0% | 0% | |
| 420 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 312 | 0% | 100% | |
| 313 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 314 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 315 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 317 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 318 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 320 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 321 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 322 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 323 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 324 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 325 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 326 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 327 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 328 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 329 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 330 | 2% | 94% | |
| 331 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 332 | 2% | 91% | |
| 333 | 2% | 89% | |
| 334 | 3% | 87% | |
| 335 | 3% | 84% | |
| 336 | 2% | 81% | |
| 337 | 2% | 79% | |
| 338 | 4% | 77% | |
| 339 | 3% | 73% | |
| 340 | 4% | 70% | |
| 341 | 5% | 66% | |
| 342 | 5% | 61% | |
| 343 | 3% | 56% | |
| 344 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 345 | 2% | 48% | |
| 346 | 5% | 46% | |
| 347 | 5% | 41% | |
| 348 | 3% | 36% | |
| 349 | 3% | 34% | |
| 350 | 4% | 30% | |
| 351 | 2% | 26% | |
| 352 | 3% | 24% | |
| 353 | 2% | 21% | |
| 354 | 2% | 19% | |
| 355 | 4% | 17% | Majority |
| 356 | 3% | 13% | |
| 357 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 358 | 2% | 9% | |
| 359 | 2% | 7% | |
| 360 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 361 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 362 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 363 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 364 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 365 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 366 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 367 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 368 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 369 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 370 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 371 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 372 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 373 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 374 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 375 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 376 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 377 | 0% | 0% | |
| 378 | 0% | 0% | |
| 379 | 0% | 0% | |
| 380 | 0% | 0% | |
| 381 | 0% | 0% | |
| 382 | 0% | 0% | |
| 383 | 0% | 0% | |
| 384 | 0% | 0% | |
| 385 | 0% | 0% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0% | |
| 387 | 0% | 0% | |
| 388 | 0% | 0% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0% | |
| 391 | 0% | 0% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 289 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 290 | 0% | 100% | |
| 291 | 0% | 100% | |
| 292 | 0% | 100% | |
| 293 | 0% | 100% | |
| 294 | 0% | 100% | |
| 295 | 0% | 100% | |
| 296 | 0% | 100% | |
| 297 | 0% | 100% | |
| 298 | 0% | 100% | |
| 299 | 0% | 100% | |
| 300 | 0% | 100% | |
| 301 | 0% | 100% | |
| 302 | 0% | 100% | |
| 303 | 0% | 100% | |
| 304 | 0% | 100% | |
| 305 | 0% | 100% | |
| 306 | 0% | 100% | |
| 307 | 0% | 100% | |
| 308 | 0% | 100% | |
| 309 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 310 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 311 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 312 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 315 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 317 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 318 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 319 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 320 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 321 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 322 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 323 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 324 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 325 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 326 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 327 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 328 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 329 | 3% | 91% | |
| 330 | 2% | 88% | |
| 331 | 2% | 86% | |
| 332 | 3% | 84% | |
| 333 | 3% | 81% | |
| 334 | 3% | 78% | |
| 335 | 4% | 75% | |
| 336 | 2% | 70% | |
| 337 | 3% | 68% | |
| 338 | 4% | 65% | |
| 339 | 4% | 62% | |
| 340 | 5% | 57% | |
| 341 | 4% | 52% | Median |
| 342 | 3% | 48% | |
| 343 | 4% | 45% | |
| 344 | 3% | 41% | |
| 345 | 4% | 38% | |
| 346 | 5% | 33% | |
| 347 | 2% | 29% | |
| 348 | 2% | 27% | |
| 349 | 4% | 25% | |
| 350 | 3% | 21% | |
| 351 | 4% | 18% | |
| 352 | 2% | 15% | |
| 353 | 3% | 13% | |
| 354 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 355 | 0.7% | 8% | Majority |
| 356 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 357 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 358 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 359 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 360 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 361 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 362 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 363 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 364 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 366 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 367 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 368 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 369 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 370 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 371 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 372 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 373 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 374 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 298 | 0% | 100% | |
| 299 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 300 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 301 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 302 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 306 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 307 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 308 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 309 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 310 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 311 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 312 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 313 | 0.7% | 96% | Last Result |
| 314 | 2% | 95% | |
| 315 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 316 | 2% | 92% | |
| 317 | 3% | 90% | |
| 318 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 319 | 4% | 86% | |
| 320 | 3% | 83% | |
| 321 | 2% | 80% | |
| 322 | 2% | 78% | |
| 323 | 5% | 76% | |
| 324 | 3% | 71% | |
| 325 | 4% | 68% | |
| 326 | 4% | 64% | |
| 327 | 4% | 60% | |
| 328 | 3% | 56% | |
| 329 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 330 | 5% | 50% | |
| 331 | 4% | 45% | |
| 332 | 2% | 41% | |
| 333 | 6% | 38% | |
| 334 | 3% | 32% | |
| 335 | 4% | 30% | |
| 336 | 2% | 26% | |
| 337 | 3% | 23% | |
| 338 | 3% | 20% | |
| 339 | 2% | 17% | |
| 340 | 3% | 15% | |
| 341 | 1.5% | 12% | |
| 342 | 3% | 11% | |
| 343 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 344 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 345 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 346 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 347 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 348 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 349 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 350 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 351 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 352 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 353 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 354 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 355 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 356 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 358 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 220 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0% | 100% | |
| 223 | 0% | 100% | |
| 224 | 0% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 100% | |
| 226 | 0% | 100% | |
| 227 | 0% | 100% | |
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 100% | |
| 230 | 0% | 100% | |
| 231 | 0% | 100% | |
| 232 | 0% | 100% | |
| 233 | 0% | 100% | |
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 100% | |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 100% | |
| 242 | 0% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 100% | |
| 244 | 0% | 100% | |
| 245 | 0% | 100% | |
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 100% | |
| 248 | 0% | 100% | |
| 249 | 0% | 100% | |
| 250 | 0% | 100% | |
| 251 | 0% | 100% | |
| 252 | 0% | 100% | |
| 253 | 0% | 100% | |
| 254 | 0% | 100% | |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 100% | |
| 258 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 265 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 267 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 268 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 269 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 270 | 2% | 97% | |
| 271 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 272 | 2% | 95% | |
| 273 | 2% | 94% | |
| 274 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 275 | 2% | 91% | |
| 276 | 2% | 89% | |
| 277 | 3% | 87% | |
| 278 | 3% | 84% | |
| 279 | 2% | 81% | |
| 280 | 4% | 79% | |
| 281 | 2% | 75% | |
| 282 | 4% | 73% | |
| 283 | 4% | 70% | |
| 284 | 4% | 65% | |
| 285 | 4% | 61% | |
| 286 | 4% | 57% | |
| 287 | 3% | 53% | Median |
| 288 | 4% | 50% | |
| 289 | 3% | 46% | |
| 290 | 5% | 43% | |
| 291 | 3% | 38% | |
| 292 | 2% | 35% | |
| 293 | 5% | 33% | |
| 294 | 2% | 28% | |
| 295 | 5% | 26% | |
| 296 | 3% | 21% | |
| 297 | 2% | 17% | |
| 298 | 4% | 15% | |
| 299 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 300 | 2% | 10% | |
| 301 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 302 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 303 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 304 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 305 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 306 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 307 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 308 | 2% | 3% | |
| 309 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 311 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 313 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 315 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0% | 100% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 259 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 261 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 262 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 263 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 265 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 266 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 267 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 268 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 269 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 270 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 271 | 3% | 92% | |
| 272 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 273 | 3% | 88% | |
| 274 | 2% | 85% | |
| 275 | 3% | 84% | |
| 276 | 2% | 80% | |
| 277 | 3% | 78% | |
| 278 | 5% | 75% | |
| 279 | 3% | 70% | |
| 280 | 3% | 67% | |
| 281 | 3% | 64% | |
| 282 | 3% | 61% | |
| 283 | 4% | 58% | |
| 284 | 4% | 54% | Median |
| 285 | 6% | 50% | |
| 286 | 5% | 45% | |
| 287 | 4% | 39% | |
| 288 | 3% | 35% | |
| 289 | 4% | 32% | |
| 290 | 2% | 28% | |
| 291 | 2% | 26% | |
| 292 | 4% | 23% | |
| 293 | 2% | 19% | |
| 294 | 2% | 17% | |
| 295 | 4% | 15% | |
| 296 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 297 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 298 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 299 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 300 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 301 | 2% | 5% | |
| 302 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 303 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 304 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 305 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 307 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 308 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 311 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 247 | 0% | 100% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 255 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 256 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 257 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 258 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 259 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 260 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 261 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 262 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 263 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 264 | 2% | 92% | |
| 265 | 2% | 91% | |
| 266 | 2% | 88% | |
| 267 | 2% | 86% | |
| 268 | 6% | 84% | |
| 269 | 2% | 78% | |
| 270 | 2% | 76% | |
| 271 | 2% | 73% | |
| 272 | 3% | 72% | |
| 273 | 3% | 69% | |
| 274 | 6% | 66% | |
| 275 | 4% | 60% | |
| 276 | 5% | 55% | Median |
| 277 | 4% | 50% | |
| 278 | 3% | 45% | |
| 279 | 2% | 43% | |
| 280 | 5% | 40% | |
| 281 | 4% | 35% | |
| 282 | 3% | 31% | |
| 283 | 4% | 28% | |
| 284 | 4% | 24% | |
| 285 | 2% | 20% | |
| 286 | 2% | 18% | |
| 287 | 2% | 16% | |
| 288 | 2% | 14% | |
| 289 | 3% | 11% | |
| 290 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 291 | 2% | 8% | |
| 292 | 2% | 6% | |
| 293 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 294 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 295 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 296 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 297 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 298 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 299 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 300 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 302 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 304 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 305 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 306 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0% | |
| 327 | 0% | 0% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 213 | 0% | 100% | |
| 214 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 215 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 217 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 218 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 220 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 222 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 223 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 224 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 225 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 226 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 227 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 228 | 2% | 95% | |
| 229 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 230 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 231 | 2% | 90% | |
| 232 | 2% | 88% | |
| 233 | 2% | 86% | Last Result |
| 234 | 3% | 84% | |
| 235 | 3% | 81% | |
| 236 | 2% | 77% | |
| 237 | 4% | 75% | |
| 238 | 5% | 71% | |
| 239 | 3% | 66% | |
| 240 | 4% | 63% | |
| 241 | 5% | 59% | |
| 242 | 4% | 55% | Median |
| 243 | 5% | 51% | |
| 244 | 6% | 46% | |
| 245 | 4% | 40% | |
| 246 | 3% | 36% | |
| 247 | 4% | 33% | |
| 248 | 4% | 29% | |
| 249 | 3% | 25% | |
| 250 | 3% | 22% | |
| 251 | 2% | 19% | |
| 252 | 3% | 17% | |
| 253 | 3% | 14% | |
| 254 | 2% | 11% | |
| 255 | 1.5% | 9% | |
| 256 | 2% | 8% | |
| 257 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 258 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 259 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 260 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 261 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 262 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 263 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 267 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 176 | 0% | 100% | |
| 177 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 189 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 190 | 2% | 97% | |
| 191 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 192 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 193 | 2% | 93% | |
| 194 | 3% | 91% | |
| 195 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 196 | 6% | 87% | |
| 197 | 2% | 81% | |
| 198 | 2% | 79% | |
| 199 | 6% | 77% | |
| 200 | 2% | 71% | |
| 201 | 3% | 68% | |
| 202 | 4% | 65% | |
| 203 | 5% | 62% | |
| 204 | 5% | 57% | |
| 205 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 206 | 4% | 49% | |
| 207 | 4% | 45% | |
| 208 | 4% | 41% | |
| 209 | 6% | 37% | |
| 210 | 4% | 31% | |
| 211 | 4% | 27% | |
| 212 | 3% | 24% | |
| 213 | 2% | 21% | |
| 214 | 5% | 18% | |
| 215 | 2% | 13% | |
| 216 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 217 | 3% | 10% | |
| 218 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 219 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 220 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 221 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 222 | 0.7% | 3% | Last Result |
| 223 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 225 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 226 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–13 August 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1450
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.99%