Opinion Poll by Forsa, 10–16 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 21.0% 19.8–22.3% 19.5–22.6% 19.2–22.9% 18.7–23.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.6% 17.3–20.9% 16.8–21.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 18.7% 17.6–19.9% 17.3–20.2% 17.0–20.5% 16.4–21.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.3–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.3% 3.8–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.5–5.3% 3.2–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 163 154–173 151–175 149–178 144–183
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 147 139–157 136–160 134–162 130–168
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 144 136–154 133–156 131–160 128–165
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 93 86–101 84–103 82–105 79–110
Alternative für Deutschland 94 78 71–85 69–87 67–89 64–92
Die Linke 69 47 41–52 40–54 0–55 0–59
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 37 32–42 31–43 30–44 28–47

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.7%  
145 0.3% 99.5%  
146 0.3% 99.2%  
147 0.4% 98.9%  
148 0.8% 98.5%  
149 0.8% 98%  
150 1.2% 97%  
151 1.3% 96%  
152 2% 94%  
153 2% 93% Last Result
154 2% 91%  
155 4% 88%  
156 4% 84%  
157 4% 80%  
158 4% 76%  
159 4% 72%  
160 5% 68%  
161 7% 63%  
162 5% 56%  
163 5% 50% Median
164 5% 45%  
165 4% 40%  
166 4% 36%  
167 5% 32%  
168 5% 27%  
169 4% 22%  
170 3% 18%  
171 2% 15%  
172 2% 13%  
173 2% 11%  
174 2% 8%  
175 2% 7%  
176 1.2% 5%  
177 0.8% 4%  
178 0.6% 3%  
179 0.6% 2%  
180 0.5% 2%  
181 0.3% 1.3%  
182 0.2% 0.9%  
183 0.2% 0.7%  
184 0.1% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.4%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.2% 99.7%  
130 0.2% 99.6%  
131 0.4% 99.4%  
132 0.5% 99.0%  
133 0.8% 98.6%  
134 0.9% 98%  
135 1.0% 97%  
136 2% 96%  
137 2% 94%  
138 2% 93%  
139 3% 90%  
140 3% 87%  
141 5% 85%  
142 4% 80%  
143 4% 76%  
144 5% 71%  
145 6% 66%  
146 5% 60%  
147 5% 55% Median
148 5% 50%  
149 6% 44%  
150 6% 39%  
151 5% 32%  
152 4% 27%  
153 4% 23%  
154 4% 20%  
155 3% 16%  
156 3% 13%  
157 2% 11%  
158 2% 8%  
159 2% 7%  
160 1.1% 5%  
161 1.0% 4%  
162 0.7% 3%  
163 0.4% 2%  
164 0.4% 2%  
165 0.4% 1.4%  
166 0.2% 0.9%  
167 0.2% 0.7%  
168 0.1% 0.5%  
169 0.2% 0.4%  
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.2%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.8%  
127 0.1% 99.7%  
128 0.3% 99.6%  
129 0.4% 99.4%  
130 0.6% 99.0%  
131 1.4% 98%  
132 2% 97%  
133 2% 95%  
134 2% 94%  
135 2% 92%  
136 2% 90%  
137 2% 89%  
138 2% 87%  
139 3% 84%  
140 6% 81%  
141 6% 75%  
142 6% 69%  
143 6% 63%  
144 7% 56% Median
145 7% 49%  
146 4% 42%  
147 4% 38%  
148 3% 34%  
149 4% 31%  
150 4% 28%  
151 4% 24%  
152 3% 20%  
153 5% 17%  
154 4% 12%  
155 2% 8%  
156 1.4% 6%  
157 1.0% 5%  
158 0.7% 4%  
159 0.5% 3%  
160 0.5% 3%  
161 0.5% 2%  
162 0.4% 2%  
163 0.5% 1.2%  
164 0.2% 0.7%  
165 0.2% 0.5%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.7%  
79 0.4% 99.5%  
80 0.5% 99.1% Last Result
81 0.7% 98.7%  
82 1.0% 98%  
83 1.3% 97%  
84 2% 96%  
85 3% 94%  
86 4% 91%  
87 5% 87%  
88 5% 82%  
89 4% 77%  
90 5% 72%  
91 5% 67%  
92 6% 62%  
93 7% 55% Median
94 7% 48%  
95 8% 41%  
96 7% 33%  
97 5% 26%  
98 4% 21%  
99 3% 17%  
100 2% 14%  
101 3% 12%  
102 2% 9%  
103 2% 7%  
104 1.3% 4%  
105 1.0% 3%  
106 0.7% 2%  
107 0.4% 1.4%  
108 0.3% 1.0%  
109 0.2% 0.7%  
110 0.2% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.5% 99.4%  
66 0.6% 99.0%  
67 0.9% 98%  
68 1.3% 97%  
69 2% 96%  
70 3% 94%  
71 4% 91%  
72 4% 87%  
73 4% 82%  
74 5% 79%  
75 8% 73%  
76 6% 65%  
77 6% 59%  
78 7% 52% Median
79 9% 46%  
80 7% 36%  
81 6% 29%  
82 5% 23%  
83 4% 19%  
84 3% 14%  
85 3% 12%  
86 3% 8%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.2% 4%  
89 0.7% 3%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.5% 1.3%  
92 0.3% 0.8%  
93 0.1% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0% 97%  
38 0% 97%  
39 1.0% 97%  
40 3% 96%  
41 4% 93%  
42 5% 89%  
43 8% 84%  
44 7% 76%  
45 10% 70%  
46 9% 60%  
47 9% 51% Median
48 9% 42%  
49 7% 32%  
50 7% 25%  
51 4% 18%  
52 5% 14%  
53 3% 9%  
54 2% 6%  
55 1.3% 4%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.7% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.8%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.7%  
29 1.0% 99.2%  
30 2% 98%  
31 3% 96%  
32 5% 93%  
33 6% 88%  
34 8% 82%  
35 10% 74%  
36 10% 64%  
37 11% 55% Median
38 11% 44%  
39 9% 32%  
40 7% 23%  
41 6% 16%  
42 4% 10%  
43 2% 6%  
44 2% 4%  
45 1.0% 2%  
46 0.7% 1.4% Last Result
47 0.4% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 492 100% 482–502 478–507 476–517 471–534
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 437 100% 427–449 423–453 421–461 416–476
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 422 100% 411–434 408–438 405–445 400–460
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 403 100% 393–415 389–419 386–426 381–440
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 356 55% 345–368 341–371 336–374 323–379
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 353 45% 341–364 338–368 335–373 330–386
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 344 15% 333–356 330–361 328–365 322–376
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 329 1.3% 318–341 315–345 312–349 307–362
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 310 0% 300–322 296–326 293–329 288–341
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 275 0% 264–287 261–290 258–294 253–303
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 260 0% 249–270 246–275 244–278 238–285
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 256 0% 245–267 242–271 240–274 235–282
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 209 0% 199–220 195–222 183–225 167–230

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
465 0% 100%  
466 0% 99.9% Last Result
467 0% 99.9%  
468 0.1% 99.8%  
469 0.1% 99.8%  
470 0.1% 99.7%  
471 0.2% 99.6%  
472 0.2% 99.4%  
473 0.2% 99.2%  
474 0.6% 98.9%  
475 0.4% 98%  
476 1.0% 98%  
477 0.8% 97%  
478 1.1% 96%  
479 1.4% 95%  
480 2% 94%  
481 2% 92%  
482 4% 90%  
483 3% 86%  
484 3% 84%  
485 3% 81%  
486 3% 78%  
487 5% 75%  
488 4% 71%  
489 5% 67%  
490 3% 62%  
491 4% 58% Median
492 7% 55%  
493 6% 48%  
494 5% 42%  
495 6% 36%  
496 4% 31%  
497 3% 27%  
498 3% 23%  
499 4% 21%  
500 3% 17%  
501 2% 14%  
502 2% 12%  
503 1.1% 10%  
504 1.3% 9%  
505 1.4% 7%  
506 0.6% 6%  
507 0.6% 5%  
508 0.7% 5%  
509 0.6% 4%  
510 0.3% 4%  
511 0.2% 3%  
512 0.2% 3%  
513 0.1% 3%  
514 0.1% 3%  
515 0.1% 3%  
516 0.1% 3%  
517 0.1% 3%  
518 0.2% 2%  
519 0.1% 2%  
520 0.1% 2%  
521 0.1% 2%  
522 0.2% 2%  
523 0.1% 2%  
524 0.1% 2%  
525 0.1% 2%  
526 0.2% 1.4%  
527 0.1% 1.3%  
528 0.1% 1.2%  
529 0.1% 1.0%  
530 0.1% 1.0%  
531 0.1% 0.9%  
532 0.1% 0.8%  
533 0.2% 0.7%  
534 0.1% 0.5%  
535 0% 0.4%  
536 0% 0.3%  
537 0.1% 0.3%  
538 0% 0.2%  
539 0% 0.1%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0.1% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.8%  
414 0.2% 99.8%  
415 0.1% 99.6%  
416 0.2% 99.5%  
417 0.2% 99.3%  
418 0.3% 99.1%  
419 0.4% 98.7%  
420 0.5% 98%  
421 0.7% 98%  
422 0.9% 97%  
423 2% 96%  
424 1.0% 95%  
425 1.2% 94%  
426 2% 92%  
427 2% 90%  
428 3% 88%  
429 3% 86%  
430 3% 82%  
431 4% 79%  
432 3% 75%  
433 3% 72%  
434 5% 69%  
435 4% 64%  
436 5% 60%  
437 5% 55% Median
438 6% 50%  
439 4% 44%  
440 4% 40%  
441 5% 37%  
442 3% 32%  
443 5% 29%  
444 3% 25%  
445 4% 22%  
446 2% 17%  
447 2% 15%  
448 2% 13%  
449 1.4% 11%  
450 2% 10%  
451 1.0% 8%  
452 1.2% 7%  
453 0.7% 6%  
454 0.8% 5%  
455 0.3% 4%  
456 0.4% 4%  
457 0.3% 3%  
458 0.2% 3%  
459 0.2% 3%  
460 0.2% 3%  
461 0.2% 3%  
462 0.2% 2%  
463 0.1% 2%  
464 0.2% 2%  
465 0.1% 2%  
466 0.2% 2%  
467 0.1% 2%  
468 0.1% 1.4%  
469 0.2% 1.3%  
470 0.1% 1.1%  
471 0.1% 1.0%  
472 0.1% 0.9%  
473 0.2% 0.8%  
474 0% 0.6%  
475 0.1% 0.6%  
476 0.1% 0.5%  
477 0.1% 0.4%  
478 0% 0.3%  
479 0% 0.3% Last Result
480 0% 0.2%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0.1% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.8%  
399 0.1% 99.7%  
400 0.1% 99.6%  
401 0.2% 99.4%  
402 0.3% 99.2%  
403 0.2% 98.9%  
404 0.8% 98.6%  
405 0.4% 98%  
406 0.7% 97%  
407 1.2% 97%  
408 1.0% 96%  
409 2% 95%  
410 1.4% 93%  
411 2% 91%  
412 2% 89%  
413 3% 87%  
414 4% 84%  
415 2% 80%  
416 3% 78%  
417 4% 75%  
418 5% 70%  
419 3% 65%  
420 5% 62%  
421 4% 57% Median
422 4% 53%  
423 4% 49%  
424 4% 44%  
425 6% 40%  
426 3% 34%  
427 5% 31%  
428 3% 26%  
429 3% 23%  
430 4% 21%  
431 3% 17%  
432 2% 14%  
433 2% 12%  
434 2% 11%  
435 1.0% 9%  
436 1.0% 8%  
437 0.9% 7%  
438 0.9% 6%  
439 0.6% 5%  
440 0.6% 4%  
441 0.4% 4%  
442 0.3% 3%  
443 0.2% 3%  
444 0.2% 3%  
445 0.2% 3%  
446 0.1% 2%  
447 0.1% 2%  
448 0.1% 2%  
449 0.1% 2%  
450 0.2% 2%  
451 0.2% 2%  
452 0.2% 2%  
453 0.3% 1.4%  
454 0.1% 1.1%  
455 0% 1.0%  
456 0.1% 1.0%  
457 0% 0.9%  
458 0.1% 0.8%  
459 0.1% 0.7%  
460 0.1% 0.5%  
461 0.2% 0.4%  
462 0% 0.3%  
463 0% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.2%  
465 0.1% 0.2%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.7%  
381 0.2% 99.6%  
382 0.2% 99.4%  
383 0.4% 99.2%  
384 0.5% 98.8%  
385 0.6% 98%  
386 0.6% 98%  
387 0.7% 97%  
388 0.8% 96%  
389 0.9% 96%  
390 0.9% 95%  
391 2% 94%  
392 2% 92%  
393 2% 91%  
394 3% 88%  
395 4% 86%  
396 3% 82%  
397 6% 79%  
398 4% 73%  
399 4% 70%  
400 5% 65%  
401 5% 60%  
402 5% 55%  
403 4% 51% Median
404 4% 46%  
405 4% 42%  
406 4% 38%  
407 4% 35%  
408 2% 31%  
409 4% 29%  
410 3% 24%  
411 3% 22%  
412 3% 19%  
413 2% 16%  
414 2% 14%  
415 2% 12%  
416 2% 10%  
417 1.2% 7%  
418 1.0% 6%  
419 0.8% 5%  
420 0.5% 5%  
421 0.3% 4%  
422 0.4% 4%  
423 0.3% 3%  
424 0.2% 3%  
425 0.2% 3%  
426 0.2% 3%  
427 0.3% 2%  
428 0.1% 2%  
429 0.3% 2%  
430 0.1% 2%  
431 0.1% 1.5%  
432 0.3% 1.4%  
433 0% 1.1%  
434 0.1% 1.1%  
435 0.1% 1.0%  
436 0.1% 0.9%  
437 0.1% 0.8%  
438 0.1% 0.7%  
439 0.1% 0.7%  
440 0.2% 0.6%  
441 0.1% 0.4%  
442 0.1% 0.4%  
443 0% 0.3%  
444 0.1% 0.3%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0.1% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.8%  
320 0% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0% 99.7%  
323 0.1% 99.6%  
324 0.1% 99.5%  
325 0% 99.4%  
326 0.2% 99.4%  
327 0.3% 99.2%  
328 0.2% 99.0%  
329 0.1% 98.8%  
330 0.1% 98.7%  
331 0.1% 98.6%  
332 0.2% 98.5%  
333 0.3% 98%  
334 0.3% 98%  
335 0.1% 98%  
336 0.3% 98%  
337 0.4% 97%  
338 0.6% 97%  
339 0.7% 96%  
340 0.4% 95%  
341 0.6% 95%  
342 1.4% 95%  
343 0.9% 93%  
344 2% 92%  
345 1.1% 90%  
346 0.8% 89%  
347 3% 88%  
348 3% 85%  
349 4% 82%  
350 2% 78%  
351 2% 76%  
352 6% 73%  
353 6% 67%  
354 6% 62%  
355 3% 55% Majority
356 4% 52%  
357 4% 49% Median
358 4% 44%  
359 5% 40%  
360 3% 35%  
361 2% 32%  
362 3% 30%  
363 4% 27%  
364 5% 22%  
365 2% 18%  
366 1.5% 15%  
367 2% 14%  
368 2% 12%  
369 3% 10%  
370 2% 7%  
371 1.1% 5%  
372 0.7% 4%  
373 0.6% 3%  
374 1.0% 3%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.3% 1.3%  
377 0.2% 1.0%  
378 0.2% 0.8%  
379 0.2% 0.6%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.1% 99.7%  
330 0.2% 99.6%  
331 0.2% 99.4%  
332 0.2% 99.2%  
333 0.3% 99.0%  
334 0.3% 98.7%  
335 1.0% 98%  
336 0.6% 97%  
337 0.7% 97%  
338 1.1% 96%  
339 2% 95%  
340 3% 93%  
341 2% 90%  
342 2% 88%  
343 1.5% 86%  
344 2% 85%  
345 5% 82%  
346 4% 78%  
347 3% 73%  
348 2% 70%  
349 3% 68%  
350 5% 65%  
351 4% 60%  
352 4% 56% Median
353 4% 51%  
354 3% 48%  
355 6% 45% Majority
356 6% 38%  
357 6% 33%  
358 2% 27%  
359 2% 24%  
360 4% 22%  
361 3% 18%  
362 3% 15%  
363 0.8% 12%  
364 1.1% 11%  
365 2% 10%  
366 0.9% 8%  
367 1.4% 7%  
368 0.6% 5%  
369 0.4% 5%  
370 0.7% 5%  
371 0.6% 4%  
372 0.4% 3%  
373 0.3% 3%  
374 0.1% 2%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.3% 2%  
377 0.2% 2%  
378 0.1% 1.5%  
379 0.1% 1.4%  
380 0.1% 1.3%  
381 0.2% 1.2%  
382 0.3% 1.0%  
383 0.2% 0.8%  
384 0% 0.6%  
385 0.1% 0.6%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.2% 99.8%  
322 0.3% 99.7%  
323 0.1% 99.4%  
324 0.3% 99.2%  
325 0.5% 98.9%  
326 0.5% 98%  
327 0.4% 98%  
328 0.4% 98%  
329 1.0% 97%  
330 2% 96%  
331 1.3% 95%  
332 1.4% 93%  
333 2% 92%  
334 5% 90%  
335 3% 85%  
336 1.3% 83%  
337 2% 81%  
338 4% 79%  
339 3% 75%  
340 3% 72%  
341 3% 69%  
342 4% 66%  
343 8% 62%  
344 5% 54% Median
345 2% 49%  
346 5% 46%  
347 6% 41%  
348 4% 35%  
349 3% 32%  
350 2% 29%  
351 5% 27%  
352 2% 22%  
353 3% 20%  
354 2% 16%  
355 3% 15% Majority
356 3% 11%  
357 0.9% 8%  
358 0.6% 8%  
359 1.1% 7%  
360 0.8% 6%  
361 1.0% 5%  
362 0.3% 4%  
363 0.5% 4%  
364 0.7% 3%  
365 0.5% 3%  
366 0.2% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0.2% 1.4%  
370 0.1% 1.2%  
371 0.2% 1.2%  
372 0.1% 1.0%  
373 0.1% 0.9%  
374 0.1% 0.8%  
375 0.1% 0.7%  
376 0.2% 0.6%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0% 0.4%  
379 0% 0.4%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.1% 99.5%  
308 0.2% 99.4%  
309 0.3% 99.2%  
310 0.5% 98.9%  
311 0.6% 98%  
312 0.6% 98%  
313 0.8% 97% Last Result
314 0.8% 96%  
315 1.1% 96%  
316 1.3% 94%  
317 2% 93%  
318 2% 91%  
319 3% 89%  
320 3% 87%  
321 3% 84%  
322 3% 81%  
323 4% 78%  
324 4% 74%  
325 4% 71%  
326 6% 66%  
327 4% 60%  
328 4% 56% Median
329 3% 53%  
330 4% 49%  
331 7% 46%  
332 4% 39%  
333 6% 35%  
334 3% 30%  
335 2% 26%  
336 3% 24%  
337 3% 21%  
338 3% 18%  
339 2% 15%  
340 3% 13%  
341 1.4% 10%  
342 1.2% 9%  
343 0.9% 8%  
344 0.8% 7%  
345 1.1% 6%  
346 0.9% 5%  
347 0.7% 4%  
348 0.5% 3%  
349 0.3% 3%  
350 0.2% 2%  
351 0.3% 2%  
352 0.2% 2%  
353 0.2% 2%  
354 0.1% 1.4%  
355 0.1% 1.3% Majority
356 0.2% 1.1%  
357 0.1% 0.9%  
358 0.1% 0.8%  
359 0.1% 0.7%  
360 0.1% 0.6%  
361 0% 0.5%  
362 0.2% 0.5%  
363 0% 0.3%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.7%  
288 0.2% 99.6%  
289 0.2% 99.4%  
290 0.4% 99.2%  
291 0.3% 98.8%  
292 0.6% 98%  
293 0.5% 98%  
294 0.8% 97%  
295 0.7% 97%  
296 1.1% 96%  
297 1.3% 95%  
298 1.5% 93%  
299 2% 92%  
300 2% 90%  
301 2% 88%  
302 4% 86%  
303 3% 82%  
304 4% 79%  
305 5% 75%  
306 6% 70%  
307 4% 64%  
308 3% 60%  
309 6% 57%  
310 4% 51% Median
311 5% 46%  
312 3% 42%  
313 4% 38%  
314 2% 34%  
315 3% 32%  
316 4% 29%  
317 3% 25%  
318 3% 21%  
319 3% 19%  
320 3% 16%  
321 2% 13%  
322 1.4% 11%  
323 2% 9%  
324 0.7% 7%  
325 1.2% 6%  
326 0.9% 5%  
327 0.9% 4%  
328 0.6% 4%  
329 0.4% 3%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.2% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.2% 1.4%  
335 0.1% 1.2%  
336 0.1% 1.0%  
337 0.1% 0.9%  
338 0.1% 0.8%  
339 0.2% 0.7%  
340 0% 0.6%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.2% 99.5%  
255 0.2% 99.3%  
256 0.6% 99.0%  
257 0.4% 98%  
258 0.8% 98%  
259 0.6% 97%  
260 0.7% 97%  
261 1.0% 96%  
262 2% 95%  
263 2% 93%  
264 2% 90%  
265 2% 88%  
266 1.5% 86%  
267 2% 84%  
268 5% 82%  
269 3% 77%  
270 6% 74%  
271 3% 67%  
272 4% 65%  
273 4% 61%  
274 5% 57% Median
275 6% 52%  
276 6% 46%  
277 5% 40%  
278 2% 36%  
279 3% 33%  
280 3% 31%  
281 5% 28%  
282 5% 23%  
283 2% 18%  
284 3% 16%  
285 1.4% 13%  
286 1.4% 12%  
287 2% 11%  
288 2% 9%  
289 1.0% 6%  
290 0.8% 5%  
291 0.6% 5%  
292 0.5% 4%  
293 0.7% 3%  
294 0.6% 3%  
295 0.4% 2%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0.2% 1.4%  
298 0.2% 1.2%  
299 0.1% 1.0%  
300 0.1% 0.9%  
301 0.1% 0.8%  
302 0.2% 0.7%  
303 0.2% 0.6%  
304 0.1% 0.4%  
305 0% 0.3%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.7%  
238 0.2% 99.6%  
239 0.2% 99.4%  
240 0.2% 99.2%  
241 0.3% 99.0%  
242 0.5% 98.7%  
243 0.5% 98%  
244 0.7% 98%  
245 1.4% 97%  
246 2% 96%  
247 2% 94%  
248 2% 92%  
249 2% 90%  
250 4% 88%  
251 3% 83%  
252 3% 80%  
253 4% 77%  
254 2% 74%  
255 4% 71%  
256 3% 68%  
257 4% 65%  
258 3% 61%  
259 5% 58% Median
260 3% 53%  
261 5% 49%  
262 6% 44%  
263 5% 38%  
264 7% 33%  
265 4% 27%  
266 4% 23%  
267 4% 19%  
268 2% 16%  
269 3% 14%  
270 1.5% 11%  
271 1.0% 9%  
272 1.2% 8%  
273 0.9% 7%  
274 0.7% 6%  
275 0.8% 5%  
276 0.8% 4%  
277 0.7% 4%  
278 0.5% 3%  
279 0.4% 2%  
280 0.5% 2%  
281 0.2% 2%  
282 0.4% 1.3%  
283 0.2% 0.9%  
284 0.1% 0.7%  
285 0.1% 0.5%  
286 0.1% 0.4%  
287 0.1% 0.4%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
234 0.1% 99.7%  
235 0.2% 99.6%  
236 0.3% 99.4%  
237 0.2% 99.1%  
238 0.4% 98.9%  
239 1.0% 98%  
240 0.5% 98%  
241 0.8% 97%  
242 2% 96%  
243 1.1% 94%  
244 1.3% 93%  
245 2% 92%  
246 4% 90%  
247 1.4% 85%  
248 2% 84%  
249 6% 82%  
250 3% 76%  
251 2% 73%  
252 4% 71%  
253 6% 67%  
254 5% 61%  
255 4% 57%  
256 6% 52% Median
257 6% 46%  
258 2% 40%  
259 6% 38%  
260 4% 32%  
261 3% 29%  
262 3% 26%  
263 4% 23%  
264 3% 18%  
265 2% 15%  
266 2% 14%  
267 3% 12%  
268 0.8% 9%  
269 1.1% 8%  
270 2% 7%  
271 1.0% 5%  
272 0.4% 4%  
273 0.6% 4%  
274 0.7% 3%  
275 0.5% 2%  
276 0.3% 2%  
277 0.4% 2%  
278 0.2% 1.2%  
279 0.2% 1.0%  
280 0.2% 0.9%  
281 0.1% 0.7%  
282 0.1% 0.6%  
283 0.1% 0.5%  
284 0% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.8%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.7%  
167 0.1% 99.5%  
168 0.1% 99.5%  
169 0.2% 99.3%  
170 0.2% 99.1%  
171 0.1% 98.9%  
172 0.1% 98.8%  
173 0.1% 98.7%  
174 0.1% 98.6%  
175 0.1% 98%  
176 0.1% 98%  
177 0.1% 98%  
178 0.1% 98%  
179 0.2% 98%  
180 0.1% 98%  
181 0.1% 98%  
182 0.1% 98%  
183 0.1% 98%  
184 0.1% 97%  
185 0.1% 97%  
186 0.1% 97%  
187 0.1% 97%  
188 0.1% 97%  
189 0.2% 97%  
190 0.3% 97%  
191 0.3% 97%  
192 0.4% 96%  
193 0.4% 96%  
194 0.5% 96%  
195 0.9% 95%  
196 1.0% 94%  
197 1.3% 93%  
198 2% 92%  
199 2% 90%  
200 2% 89%  
201 3% 87%  
202 3% 84%  
203 5% 81%  
204 3% 76%  
205 5% 72%  
206 5% 67%  
207 5% 62%  
208 4% 57%  
209 6% 53%  
210 3% 47% Median
211 5% 44%  
212 5% 39%  
213 4% 34%  
214 5% 30%  
215 3% 25%  
216 3% 22%  
217 4% 19%  
218 2% 15%  
219 2% 13%  
220 2% 11%  
221 2% 9%  
222 1.2% 6% Last Result
223 1.0% 5%  
224 0.8% 4%  
225 1.1% 3%  
226 0.6% 2%  
227 0.4% 1.5%  
228 0.3% 1.0%  
229 0.2% 0.8%  
230 0.1% 0.5%  
231 0.1% 0.4%  
232 0.1% 0.3%  
233 0.1% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations